Foreign investment in Africa has shown strong recovery and diversification since the pandemic-induced dip in 2020, when FDI flows declined by 16% to $40 billion from $47 billion in 2019 .

By 2022, private equity and venture capital investments surged by 66% year-over-year to $7.70 billion, the highest in five years, driven by major transactions such as a $5 billion healthcare acquisition .

In 2023, FDI into Africa grew by 11%, defying the global trend of declining investment .

The fintech sector alone attracted over $4 billion in 2021, and its revenues are projected to reach $30 billion by 2025 .

By 2050, Africa’s population is expected to reach 2.53 billion, with consumer and business spending projected at $16.12 trillion, further enhancing its investment appeal .

Geographically, investment is concentrated in countries with developed capital markets and dynamic startup ecosystems.

South Africa, Nigeria, and Morocco account for the largest shares in the VanEck Vectors Africa Index ETF, with 34%, 11.7%, and 10.7% respectively .

West Africa led in recorded deals worth $1 million or more between 2019 and 2023, followed by East Africa .

Kenya, Nigeria, and Egypt host over 30% of Africa’s technology hubs .

Ethiopia and the DRC have seen significant FDI inflows from Kenyan firms, while Zambia, Mauritius, Senegal, and Rwanda attract investment through open trade policies and special economic zones .

Industrial areas attracting foreign investment include oil, gas, mining, financial services, agriculture, ICT, energy, pharmaceuticals, automotive, and logistics .

The technology sector is booming, with the number of tech startups tripling between 2020 and 2021 and fintech companies accounting for seven of the ten new African unicorns in 2021 .

Infrastructure remains a key focus, with

Foreign investment in Africa has shown strong recovery and diversification since the pandemic-induced dip in 2020, when FDI flows declined by 16% to $40 billion from $47 billion in 2019 .

Title:

Content: Is Africa a good place to start a business?

Africa is experiencing a technology boom: the rapid penetration of Internet and mobile technologies make this region more and more interesting for IT entrepreneurs, despite the specificity and heterogeneity of the market.

IT in Africa

The African continent is a large market, as well as a source of direct access to a large audience with smartphones and a wide range of resources. The region is rich in coal, oil, ferrous metal ores, graphite, aluminum, and phosphate and consists of 54 countries, extremely diverse in terms of population, digitalization, economy, and purchasing power. Since January 2021, the continent has had a free trade zone between the countries of the African Union.

The market entry threshold is low, there is no fierce competition, and the potential for growth and demand for technology projects is enormous: the region has many problems that can be solved through innovation.

The continent has a crazy rate of Internet development and a native love of smartphones. You can buy bananas on the street and pay with your mobile account.

Students are often interested in starting their businesses. More often than not, students choose completely new locations and new startup ideas. We recommend that you consider Africa for your business because in a few years it will bring you success. But first, we recommend visiting Africa as a tourist to get a feel for the atmosphere. If you got carried away with preparing for a trip to Africa and forgot to write a research paper on time do not panic. After all, it’s no trouble, because a student service will always come to your aid. So if you’re wondering if you can pay someone to write my paper, always go to the WritingAPaper service. Its experts will help with any academic paper, and you will have time for exciting trips.

By 2025, experts predict Africa’s Internet economy should reach 5.1% of GDP – about $185 billion. FinTech, AgroTech, eCommerce, InsureTech, HealthTech, and CleanTech are considered the most in-demand areas.

According to research firm Briter Bridges, venture capital investment in African startups totaled $1.31 billion in 2021, most of which came from fintech projects. Kenya, Nigeria, and Egypt are considered to be the drivers of the region’s venture capital ecosystem: projects from these countries have received the most investment over the past few years compared with their neighbors on the continent. More than 30% of the continent’s technology hubs are concentrated here.

“The GDP of the entire region is $6.8 trillion. If Africa were a single country, it would be fourth in the world after China, the U.S., and India. Undoubtedly, the economic power of the region is still small, but in the next 30-50 years, it is predicted a stable growth in the range of 6-12% per year, and this process will be accompanied by the creation of new industries and businesses.

GDP per capita in terms of purchasing power parity in Africa is $5.2 thousand, for comparison, in the Russian Federation – $29.4 thousand, in the USA – $68.3 thousand, in Europe – about $41 thousand. However, in the top 20 fast-growing economies of the world, six lines are African countries: Benin, Ghana, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Cote d’Ivoire. The main technological hubs on the continent are concentrated in South Africa, Nigeria, and Egypt.

The level of development of the IT market in Africa is 5-10 years behind other countries. Until now, only 28% of the continent’s population has access to the Internet, but in the last few years, the situation is gradually changing. Now the digital industry in Africa is actively developing, and the international market is noticing this trend.

African Accelerators & Incubators

There are more than 600 technology centers in Africa, among them incubators, gas pedals, and co-working spaces for companies. One of the most famous technology centers is the CcHUB. It is located in Yaba, Nigeria’s Silicon Valley. CcHUB boasts a rich network of 650 startups across Africa.

CcHUB partners with Amazon, and Google for Startups, Visa, and other international companies. The incubator focuses on projects in health, smart transportation infrastructure, fintech, education, and cybersecurity.

Another major center actively developing a technology and innovation startup environment is the MEST incubator in Ghana. Assistance from the Meltwater Foundation allows MEST to target startups from all over Africa at the earliest stages of development, train entrepreneurs for free, and help with product prototyping and hypothesis testing.

MEST is an educational program for IT entrepreneurs, an internal seed fund, and a network of incubators for technology startups in Africa. The hubs are located in Accra, Lagos, Cape Town, and Nairobi. The organization has been active since 2008, actively supporting programmers and engineers. One of the programs lasts a year, is designed for 60 start-ups, and is completely free. MEST has many famous partners, such as the acceleration program for fintech startups supported by the French bank Societe Generale.

In Ethiopia today, three private business incubators are systematically working with technology startups: BlueMoon, iceAddis, and iCog/Solve. The first has more AgriTech, the second has eCommerce startups, and the third has programming, including AI projects.

The iCog/Solve gas pedal hosts Ethiopia Hacks, a series of 12 hackathons in which 600 people have already participated. The project is funded by the U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Agency for International Development, with Google Developers Group (GDG) and the Center for Accelerated Women’s Economic Empowerment (CAWEE) as partners.

Here, with the support of Kenya’s Ministries of Health and Transport, the famous MSafari service was created to monitor the passenger flow of public transport.

The Cape Innovation and Technology Initiative (CiTi) is the oldest technology business incubator on the continent. Located in Cape Town and founded in 1999, it focuses on the development of IT projects. During its existence, it has helped three thousand entrepreneurs to create more than two thousand companies and continues to be actively involved in the Cape Town technology community.

iHub – each year the gas pedal supports 450 startups. The gas pedal has a wide range of programs for business startups. One of them is aimed at the development of IT projects run by women.

Startupbootcamp Afritech – runs several accelerator programs, including ASIP Accelerator Program and iNovo. Project recruitment happens all the time, and there is a virtual and offline passing format. The program is supported by Amazon, Nedbank, PwC, and other large companies. Participants have a chance to receive an investment of 15 thousand euros.

The most specialized technoparks are presented in South Africa – Technopark Stellenbosch, Highveld Techno Park, and The Innovation Hub. Notable technoparks exist in Senegal (Dakar Technopolis), Rwanda (Kigali ICT Park), Madagascar, and Zimbabwe at NUST University.

Africa, with a population of 1.35 billion, could overtake China and India in the next decade. McKinsey estimates that by 2025, the region will have 360 million smartphones and 240 million computers and laptops, and digitalization will increase GDP by $140-320 billion. Not surprisingly, such a large – and still technologically untapped – market is beginning to play an increasingly prominent role in the economic arena.

Thanks to the serious penetration of smartphones and the large percentage of the young population, the African market is becoming a convenient environment for launching and developing technological projects. A large number of fragmented states at different stages of economic development makes it difficult to create a unified startup industry in the region but does not prevent the effective functioning of individual technology hubs with which large international companies are willing to cooperate.

Localization of foreign projects in Africa is complicated by a large language group, corruption, and the specific mentality of the population, but the potential growth opportunities and lack of serious competition more than offset the possible risks.

We are committed to Africa

Unlike many global publications, for nearly a decade we have been committed to showing a complete picture of Africa – not just a single story.  Offended by one-sided coverage of wars, disasters and disease, the founders of Africa.com created a website that provides a balanced view of Africa – current events, business, arts & culture, travel, fashion, sports, information, development, and more.

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By 2022, private equity and venture capital investments surged by 66% year-over-year to $7.70 billion, the highest in five years, driven by major transactions such as a $5 billion healthcare acquisition .

Title:

Content: Kenyan firms double investments in the region on market optimism

The number of investments that local firms made abroad nearly doubled in 2022, most of which were in neighbouring countries, reflecting local industry’s optimism in the expanded East African Community (EAC)

According to the latest official data, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) made by Kenyan companies in other countries grew 75 per cent to Sh329.2 billion in 2022, compared to Sh187.7 billion in 2021.

The Foreign Investment Survey Report showed Safaricom’s investment in Ethiopia made the country the top investment destination for Kenyan firms in 2022.

Ethiopia received Sh74 billion as FDI from Kenya as the telco set its operation there.

Before Safaricom started setting up in Ethiopia in 2021 and pumped in Sh60 billion, the country used to get dismal investments from Kenya, at Sh647 million in 2020.

FDI to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) grew 200 per cent, with Kenyan firms pumping Sh52.7 billion in 2022 up from Sh17.8 billion in 2021.

This followed the hype that came with the country becoming a full-fledged member of EAC.

Foreign assets

In 2022, DR Congo was the fourth largest recipient of investments from Kenya after Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda. It had previously ranked lower with countries such as the US, Rwanda, Mauritius and South Africa being ahead.

The stock of foreign assets increased by 30.4 per cent to Sh452.9 billion at the end of 2021, and further by 13.7 per cent to Sh514.9 billion at the end of 2022.

These were mainly in the form of foreign direct investment and other investments.

“FDI nearly doubled from Sh187.7 billion at the end of 2020 to Sh329.2 billion at the end of 2022 and accounted for 63.9 per cent of the total foreign assets at the end of 2022. The increase was mainly on account of equity and investment fund shares,” said the Foreign Investment Survey Report by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

“Other Investment abroad increased from Sh158 billion at the end of 2020 to Sh182.7 billion at the end of 2021, and further to Sh183.9 billion at the end of 2022. The increase was driven by currency and deposits, which accounted for 69 per cent of the total other investment abroad.”

Following the admission of DR Congo to EAC, Kenyan firms trooped to the country expecting to tap into the ease of doing business in the country for firms of other EAC members.

They were counting on the country’s huge population and operations around its rich mineral resources.

Some of them, including banks, have reported seeing a growth in earnings and say their DR Congo operations could rival their earnings from the Kenyan parent companies.

The KNBS report also showed that investments from other countries to Kenya grew 17.9 per cent over the period, largely driven by FDI which increased 11.6 per cent to Sh 2.06 trillion from Sh1.07 trillion in 2020.

“The stock of foreign liabilities increased by 17.9 per cent from Sh1.748  trillion at the end of 2020 to Sh2.06 trillion at the end of 2022,” said the report.

“The increase was attributed to FDI which increased by 11.6 per cent from Sh1.069 trillion billion at the end of 2020 to Sh1.193.6 billion at the end of 2022.

The stock of Other Investment liabilities increased from Sh645.9 billion in 2020 to Sh808 billion in 2022.”

High taxes

The major sources of FDI for Kenya include the United Kingdom, which accounted for 17.5 per cent of the investments to Kenya in 2022, South Africa (11.3 per cent), Mauritius (8.3 per cent) and the Netherlands (7.5 per cent).

Investors who responded to the KNBS survey noted that the cost of power, high taxes and access to credit are among the factors that are a drag for business in the country.

They however noted there was improvement in internet reliability, transport and infrastructure and ease of business registration

“On the contrary, 22.2 per cent of the respondents indicated that the cost of electricity had deteriorated. This was closely followed by the cost of credit and tax policy measures at  17.8 per cent and 16.5 per cent, respectively,” said the survey.

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What trends are emerging for African startups in 2022?

significant merger and acquisition activity

In 2023, FDI into Africa grew by 11%, defying the global trend of declining investment .

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African private equity activity surges to 5-year high in 2022

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African private equity activity surges to 5-year high in 2022

Private equity and venture capital investments in Africa soared 66% year over year in 2022 to $7.70 billion, the highest aggregate value for the region in the last five years, S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows.

The massive jump was mainly due to the proposed acquisition of hospital operator Mediclinic International PLC, which is valued at more than $5 billion.

Transaction volume, which includes M&A and rounds of funding, has steadily climbed in the region since 2018 and reached 404 deals in 2022. The continent saw a full-year increase in transaction volume even as activity slowed sharply in the final quarter of the year.

Investments with private equity involvement totaled $370 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, down 71% from $1.28 billion in the prior-year period. Deal volume declined 43% over the same time frame.

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Attractive valuations, young demographics

African technology companies offer appealing entry valuations and high growth rates of about 100% annually compared to peers in the U.S., according to Fope Adelowo, principal at Helios Investment Partners LLP, which invests in telecommunications, media and financial services across the region.

"The growth outlook for those sectors are not only quite positive, but they are also, in many ways, noncyclical," Adelowo said. "When you look at the global environment, whether that's people using more digital methods to make payments ... consumers consuming more data, we're really just in the early stages."

African economies are also buoyed by young populations that are "increasingly entrepreneurial and driven by technology-led innovation," Adelowo said. Money moved into venture capital in the region has grown about 10x in the last five years, largely due to that young population, which is "very digitally engaged." That is helping drive innovation to address inefficiencies in many sectors in Africa, Adelowo added.

Health, tech sectors drawing interest

Once the multibillion-dollar deal for Mediclinic closes, that transaction will become the largest private equity capital deployment in Africa in the last three years. Mediclinic's buyers include Remgro Ltd. and SAS Shipping Agencies Services SÀRL. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter.

The technology sector, particularly digital infrastructure, is also attracting investor interest, Adelowo said. There is an imbalance in the supply of data centers, for example, compared to growth expected from consumers that need more data and are spending more time online.

Africa's financial services and fintech sectors are also expected to continue to grow as many African countries increasingly move to a cashless society, Adelowo added.

The fintech sector alone attracted over $4 billion in 2021, and its revenues are projected to reach $30 billion by 2025 .

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Q&A – Timothy Nuy, Finclusion Group

i) First, can we discuss the significance of the recent Cairo Angels Syndicate Fund (CASF) investment in Finclusion Group, their second investment outside Egypt?

We are delighted to have secured an investment from the CASF. As only the second investment from the CASF in a company outside of Egypt, we feel that the growth we’ve made, and the goals we plan to achieve, were the driving factors behind this show of faith.

This investment means that the CASF will join our growing list of partners, shareholders, and investors. This is a significant step for Finclusion as our ambition is to build the first truly African neobank. As a result, we must start building solid pan-African relationships early in our journey. The team at CASF is of incredible stature and is the right business partner to help us move in that direction.

ii) Like so many other developing countries, Kenya has work to do to foster financial inclusion for all to date. What can be done to change this dynamic, and have others attempted to broker greater inclusivity wherein you believe Finclusion can be a game-changer in this regard?

Like many countries in Africa, Kenya is making many steps to become more financially inclusive. The opportunity for growth and scale is evident, both for people and their wealth and for companies and industries. We are seeing a lot more interest in the African fintech landscape from international investors, and African unicorns are becoming a much more frequent occurrence.

I believe Finclusion is well positioned to lead the way in this space as a full-service neobank. We are a credit-led neobank, offering products and services that meet our customers where they are and deliver value that traditional financial institutions dont, can’t, or choose not to.

We are constantly introducing new products into the market, such as TrustGroPay, a first of its kind mobile credit payments solution in Kenya. TrustGroPay is a USSD product similar to offering a credit card to M-PESA users. Users of TrustGroPay enjoy instant credit on any payments via their mobile phone while paying for their goods at the till – this is a game-changer.

iii) Nonetheless, formal access to the financial marketplace in Kenya rose from 83% (2019) to 84% (2021). What conditions do you believe allowed this growth to occur?

The recent access change is positive and we expect this number to increase. One such condition that contributed to this growth is M-PESA. The convenience and popularity of M-PESA mean that millions of unbanked Africans now have an accessible onramp into the financial marketplace. At Finclusion, we are looking to build products that deliver value for the underserved at scale – as M-PESA has done – by creating innovative fintech products that are simple, convenient and appropriate.

iv) Where on the continent does Finclusion Group look to expand in the years to come?

We currently operate in five countries – Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, Eswatini and Namibia – and will soon be launching in Mozambique and Uganda. Our immediate focus is to grow our service offering in East Africa and beyond.

v) How can Finclusion Group serve as a proponent of greater foreign direct investment (FDI) or from within, intra-African trade in 2022?

The African fintech landscape saw over US$4bn in investment in 2021, but compared to global startup funding, its VC journey is just beginning. However, Africas many recent fintech success stories have put the continent in the sightline of international VCs, and we believe Africa is the last frontier for significant FDI.

The Finclusion Group will help facilitate this for our core operations and complementary investments through our established network of partners, shareholders, and investors. We also invest in early-stage African fintech startups. We have an exciting and diverse portfolio of companies that offer a range of services from AI risk-modelling to BNPL to personalised debt management, to name a few.

As the fintech startup space matures, we see lots of opportunities for companies to scale and attract more significant foreign investment, intra-African trade, and partnerships.

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Content: AFK: One Of The Few ETFs Investing In Africa

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Summary

  • AFK provides exposure to publicly-listed companies doing business in Africa.
  • AFK is trading at less than 10x earnings, which is fairly valued in my opinion given the specific risks associated with emerging markets.
  • As the probability of a global recession is now higher than a few months ago, I would personally be patient and wait for better opportunities in Europe and North America.

Investment Thesis

With some of the fastest-growing economies in the world, African nations are playing an increasingly significant role in the global economy. The population is young and rapidly growing, and household incomes and consumption are projected to rise. According to the WEF, more than 40% of Africans would be in the middle or upper classes by 2030, leading to increased demand for products and services. As a result, household spending is predicted to reach $2.5 trillion in 2030, more than double the 2015 figure ($1.1 trillion). The continent is also home to an abundance of natural resources. For instance, it has huge, untapped reserves of natural gas and oil and largely unexploited hydroelectric power. In this article, I will review the VanEck Vectors Africa Index ETF (NYSEARCA:AFK), which provides exposure to publicly-listed companies doing business in Africa.

Strategy Details

The VanEck Vectors Africa Index ETF tracks the performance of the MVIS GDP Africa Index. "The index includes local listings of companies that are incorporated in Africa and listings of companies incorporated outside of Africa but that have at least 50% of their revenues coming from Africa."

If you want to learn more about the strategy, please click here.

Portfolio Composition

The index places a high weight on the Financial sector (representing around 32% of the index), followed by Materials (accounting for 29%) and Communication Services (representing around 21% of the fund). The largest three sectors have a combined allocation of approximately 82%.

In terms of geographical allocation, nearly ~34% of the fund is invested in South Africa, followed by Nigeria (~11.7%) and Morocco (~10.7%). It is interesting to see that AFK doesn't rank countries by GDP, but rather by how well the capital markets are developed in those countries. Egypt, for instance, which is the second-largest African economy by nominal GDP comes only 8th on the list, with 5% of total assets.

~41% of the portfolio is invested in mid-cap blend issuers, characterized as mid-sized companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Mid-cap issuers are generally defined as companies with a market capitalization between $2 billion and $8 billion. The second-largest allocation is mid-cap growth equities. It is interesting to see that AFK allocates approximately 77% of total assets to small and mid-cap issuers, which generally have a larger runway to grow than large-cap issuers and can therefore provide higher returns over the long term. That said, small and mid-cap stocks generally have higher betas, thus I think it is important to see if you are comfortable with a higher level of volatility before purchasing AFK.

The fund is currently invested in ~79 different stocks. The top ten holding account for ~42%, with no single stock weighting more than 6%. All in all, AFK is well-diversified and has a very low level of unsystematic risk as a result. However, I think it is important to highlight the fact that AFK doesn't diversify the emerging market risk. In other words, all countries included in this basket are emerging economies and by owning AFK, you are facing some undiversifiable risks specific to emerging markets.

Since we are dealing with equities, one important characteristic is the portfolio's valuation. According to data from Morningstar, AFK currently trades at a price-to-book ratio of ~1.7 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5. This is extremely cheap if you compare it to developed markets which generally trade at over 14x earnings.

However, this countries come with a unique set of challenges. For instance, if you look at the countries with the highest inflation rate in the world, African countries are overweighted in that list. The same goes for other crucial metrics such as unemployment. In my opinion, AFK's valuation fairly reflects the fundamentals of the underlying economies and deserves a discount relative to developed markets and other emerging markets that are in a better shape.

Is The ETF Right for Me?

I have compared AFK's total returns against the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) over the last 5 years to assess which one was a better investment. Over that period, both funds had similar results, with EEM slightly outperforming AFK.

To put AKF's results into perspective, a $100 investment 5 years ago in this ETF would now be worth ~$105.04. This represents a compound annual growth rate of ~0.99%, including dividends, which is a mediocre absolute return in my opinion.

If we take a step back and look at the 10-year total return, the results don't change much. EEM came on top once again, outperforming AFK since early 2015. I think it is worth noting fact that AFK failed to deliver positive returns over 10 years despite a good dividend yield and low valuations. I think this is a good example where low valuations are not enough to make a fund/stock a great investment and that you need additional factors that will contribute to its success.

Lastly, with a rising dollar and the potential for a global recession increasing, I would personally avoid investing in emerging markets at the moment, since I believe better opportunities will be available in Europe and North America over the next months.

Key Takeaways

AFK provides exposure to publicly-listed companies doing business in Africa. For many investors, Africa's young and rapidly growing economy represents a lucrative market. AFK is trading at less than 10x earnings, which is fairly valued in my opinion given the specific risks associated with emerging markets. As the probability of a global recession is now higher than a few months ago, I would personally be patient and wait for better opportunities in Europe and North America.

This article was written by

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About me: Value-oriented investor, seeking low-risk investments with the potential to deliver high returns. I like to analyze commodities, ETFs, and cash-flow positive businesses that have a moat and growth opportunities.
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Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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By 2050, Africa’s population is expected to reach 2.53 billion, with consumer and business spending projected at $16.12 trillion, further enhancing its investment appeal .

Geographically, investment is concentrated in countries with developed capital markets and dynamic startup ecosystems.

South Africa, Nigeria, and Morocco account for the largest shares in the VanEck Vectors Africa Index ETF, with 34%, 11.7%, and 10.7% respectively .

Title:

Content: In 2023, standards became higher than ever for global tech. Customers want to be able to buy something in two clicks but still need in-person customer service. Workers want to work digitally, ideally from a beach somewhere, while maintaining a connection with their colleagues. And the truth is these standards are unlikely to get lower soon.

In Africa, the tech scene hasn’t been any less dramatic. It was, in many ways, a market correction. Several startups shut down, while many others survived by bone-deep cost-cutting or mergers and acquisitions. Founders and investors have gone from chasing Silicon Valley-esque growth to seeking a balance with the African market. Between 2020 and 2023, African tech went from the “peak of inflated expectations” point to the “plateau of productivity” side of Gartner’s hype cycle.

Now, what’s next? That’s what everyone wants to know as we enter a new year. Predicting the future is hard and risky. But it’s even harder in the digital tech industry because, as we’ve seen in the past three years, things change fast and dramatically. However, 2023 gave several pointers to trends we should all pay attention to in the new year.

Crypto/Web3

2022 was a rough year for the crypto market. Everything went wrong, from Terra’s downfall to FTX’s scandal. But 2023 was a lot better as Bitcoin ended the year over 150% higher than where it started. The Solana blockchain also made a dramatic comeback, with its token rising over 1000%.

Why does this matter? Because price is still the main driver of the crypto ecosystem. Funding pours into startups when prices are high and dry up when prices are low. It also means the hype bubble will likely return because markets become irrational in the face of high prices.

Africa is the fastest-growing cryptocurrency market among developing economies, primarily because people seek to hedge against inflation. Young people are drawn to low-barrier opportunities to generate wealth, which is crypto’s biggest use case today.

Africa’s regulatory environment is also slowly buying into crypto. In December, Nigeria’s central bank lifted a ban on cryptocurrency transactions, saying global trends had shown a need to regulate such activities.

Artificial intelligence

AI has become the rave of the moment, thanks to OpenAI’s breakthrough with ChatGPT. The chances that an image or text you see on social media are products of generative AI are higher than ever. Every big tech player is in the race for AI dominance. Google launched Gemini in December, a few weeks after Elon Musk’s xAI launched Grok, another ChatGPT competitor.

One in every four dollars that went into the pocket of an American startup was related to AI, per Crunchbase data. According to McKinsey data, AI startups garnered over five times as much funding in the first half of 2023 as they did over the same period in 2022. Global demand for talent in this section also spiked in 2023. LinkedIn job postings that mention AI or generative AI have more than doubled since 2021.

In Africa, we are seeing more startups either focus on AI or apply it to their processes. For instance, OnePipe, a Nigerian fintech, uses artificial intelligence for fraud detection and prevention and biometric verification for customer KYC implementation. It also uses natural language processing for conversational transactions. Nokwary, a Ghanaian startup, uses speech recognition and conversational user interfaces to enable visually impaired people and those who can’t read and write to interact with banking apps and systems through spoken commands.

The biggest challenge to an AI boom in Africa is data. However, this poses a huge opportunity for research and data collection companies in the continent.

Mergers and Acquisitions

Many startups shut down between 2022 and 2023, either because they couldn’t raise more cash or because tough economic times got the better of them. But that wasn’t the only trend that emerged. Many others survive by getting acquired. Nearly 70 acquisitions have happened between 2022 and 2023, according to data from The Big Deal and BD Funding Tracker. Some notable deals were Risevest and Chaka, BioNTech and InstaDeep, Bitmama and PayDay, and FairMoney and PayForce.

Mergers and Acquisitions will likely remain a trend for as long as valuations are low. Over the last two years, startups have been more cautious about bloating their valuations, and investors have kept the same sentiment. It’s partially why we haven’t recorded new unicorns in a minute. MNT-Halan was the only new entrant in the last two years.

This also creates an opportunity for African startup marketplaces, which will replicate Acquire.com to make acquisition easy for startups with solid products but low clout.

International work for Africans

Many African countries saw their currencies devalued in 2023. Inflation rates have also spiked in many economies. This creates a stronger appeal for them to earn foreign currencies and an [almost worrisome] opening for Westerners to find cheap labour in Africa. This is crucial because wage rates are rising in China and India, making it increasingly expensive for companies to outsource services there.

Studies by Bloomberg show that China’s upper-middle class now dominates, with over 200 million urban households having disposable incomes of $16k — $34k. Meanwhile, many Sub-Saharan economies have seen their middle-class shrink in recent years.

Also, there aren’t enough opportunities for young people to work remotely in Africa. Ten to twelve million young Africans enter the labour market each year, and an estimated one-third of the 600 million young people entering the global market by 2030 will be young Africans.

This trend will create opportunities for new approaches to apprenticeship or employment matching. It also means startups focused on building tech talent will likely see growth in 2024.

New regional preferences

In 2024, investors could reevaluate their regional strategies in response to changing macroeconomic and political conditions. Per the EIU, fifteen African countries have elections next year, and investors will observe their outcomes keenly. Elections are fraught with risk, especially in regions where armed conflict is rampant. The EIU notes that elections in Algeria, Egypt, Ghana, and South Africa will add to political risk, which could have long-term implications on where investors put their money.

An AVCA survey revealed that LPs favoured investing in West Africa while GPs leaned towards East Africa. The data aligns with this: between 2019 and 2023, per The Big Deal, there were over 700 recorded deals worth $1m or more. West Africa led the pack with 246, East Africa with 175, Northern Africa with 160, Southern Africa with 147, and Central Africa with 14. Depending on the degree of confidence, the numbers could realign with investors becoming more risk-averse. It’s all “wait and see” going into 2024.

Elsewhere on Ventures

West Africa led in recorded deals worth $1 million or more between 2019 and 2023, followed by East Africa .

Title:

Content: Global investors waiting to pour in money in Africa to firewall China

By IANS | Published: August 2, 2021 02:09 PM2021-08-02T14:09:05+5:302021-08-02T14:25:34+5:30

New Delhi, Aug 2: After a tepid inflow of foreign direct investments (FDI) into Africa in 2020 amid the ...

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New Delhi, Aug 2: After a tepid inflow of foreign direct investments (FDI) into Africa in 2020 amid the Covid-19, investors are once again warming up to the continent. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), FDI flows into Africa declined by 16 per cent in 2020 to $40 billion, from $47 billion in 2019.

China, the primary investor in the continent, has also slowed down its investments into the continent leaving an opportunity for other investors.

While the UNCTAD projected FDI inflow into Africa to grow this year, it said that the slow vaccine roll-out programme is a cause for concern. According to UNCTAD, FDI to the continent is projected to grow by only 5 per cent in 2021. But analysts said Africa as an investment destination has led to "an unprecedented curiosity" among other countries, which are now aggressively looking to mute China's dominance in the continent.

"Africa is critical in the new geopolitical and geo-economic contours. The continent, with its vast natural resources, offers a ready growth platform," an analyst told India Narrative.

According to a study published by Brookings Institution last week, Africa is home to 17 per cent of the world population. However, by 2050, it will have 26 per cent of the global population 2.53 billion people. "If Africa is not successfully integrated into the global economy, there could be a major threat to global prosperity and stability," the study said, adding that by 2050, the continent will be home to an estimated $16.12 trillion of combined consumer and business spending.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) – the mega trade could give a push to intra-continental investment.

Touted as one of the biggest trade deals in the world, the AfCTA aims to create a single market comprising 1.3 billion people with a combined GDP of about $3.4 trillion.

Meanwhile, the US may have woken up late in recognising the potential of Africa but is making all attempts to make up for the lost time.

The Group of Seven or G7 has already decided to support US President Joe Biden's proposal of carving out a mega infrastructure plan under the "Build Back Better World" (B3W) initiative, expected to bring in transparency and sustainability. Besides, the initiative will be carried out only in consultation with local communities.

The G7 in its meeting in June also announced that it will increase its support to the Indo Pacific and Africa. "We resolve to collaborate with partners around the world, including in the Indo-Pacific and Africa, to actively promote these shared values for the good of all," said the statement.

India too has pressed the pedal on investments in the region. Sources said that the still-born Asia Africa Growth Corridor—the mega infrastructure project that was launched in 2017 to connect Asia and Africa must be revived.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that Chinese financiers committed $153 billion to African public sector borrowers between 2000 and 2019. "After rapid growth in the 2000s, annual lending commitments to Africa peaked in 2013, the year the BRI was launched. By 2019, though, new Chinese loan commitments amounted to only $7 billion to the continent, down 30 percent from $9.9 billion in 2018," it said.

Disclaimer: This post has been auto-published from an agency feed without any modifications to the text and has not been reviewed by an editor

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Kenya, Nigeria, and Egypt host over 30% of Africa’s technology hubs .

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Content: South Africa supports calls for global co-operation to boost trade and address economic challenges and climate change

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Johannesburg, South Africa – 23 January 2023: The 53rd Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, concluded on Friday, 20 January 2023. World leaders and corporate executives expressed hope that the looming recession facing the global economy could be avoided if countries collaborated to boost global trade and investment.

A high-level South African government and business delegation has returned home from the meeting more upbeat than before that the current economic slowdown and rising inflation could be resolved if nations addressed global supply disruptions that are leading to commodity shortages and driving up energy and food prices.

The delegation was led by Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana, who was accompanied by leaders of South Africa’s major corporations operating in various sectors of the economy. The delegation also included Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Ebrahim Patel; Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandor; and Minister of Human Settlements, Mmamoloko Kubayi.

This year’s WEF Annual Meeting was held under the theme “Cooperation in a Fragmented World” and covered many interconnected topics including the impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war on the commodity markets, skyrocketing cost of living caused by rising inflation and monetary policy tightening by central banks, climate change, and the growing impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on workplaces and labour markets.

“The South African delegation did a fantastic job in Davos where it sold our country to global investors as a favourable market to do business and invest in. Notwithstanding the energy supply constraints that our country is currently grappling with, South Africa remains an attractive investment destination given its excellent infrastructure, sophisticated financial markets, and a skilled workforce,” says Sithembile Ntombela, Acting CEO of Brand South Africa.

The South African government is currently implementing structural reforms that have opened the energy sector to private investment to boost energy generation and bring an end to load-shedding that is constraining the economy.

“The structural reforms that are currently being implemented by the government are making progress in removing investment bottlenecks and reducing the cost of doing business. These reforms will enable South Africa, a preferred destination by local investors and global multinationals looking to expand across Africa, to take advantage of the opportunities presented by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA),” says Ntombela.

The AfCFTA, which officially launched in 2021, will create the world’s largest free trade area, stimulate intra-African trade, develop regional value chains, and promote industrialisation across the continent.

The AfCFTA Secretariat and WEF revealed in a report unveiled at this year’s Davos meeting that AfCFTA is projected to create single market that will grow to 1.7 billion people and $6.7 trillion in consumer and business spending by 2030.

By 2050, the continent is estimated to be home to 2.5 billion people and a market with a combined business and consumer spending of $16.12 trillion.

The report titled “A New Era for Global Business and Investment in Africa” lists four high-potential sectors that hold lucrative opportunities for companies looking to invest in Africa.

These sectors are automotive, agriculture and agro-processing, pharmaceuticals, and transport and logistics, which are all expected to see rapid growth in terms of production and trade volumes under AfCFTA.

“Given that South Africa is the most industrialised and sophisticated economy in Africa, it is well positioned to take advantage of opportunities presented by AfCFTA. The development of the free trade area will require massive investment in logistics and telecommunications infrastructure to reduce the cost of doing business and enable free movement of people, goods and services,” explains Ntombela.

With the green energy transition and digital transition in full motion around the world, the delegation that represented South Africa at WEF2023 expressed support for calls to reskill and upskill workforces, particularly the youth, to prepare them for future workplaces and to mitigate job losses.

The delegation is impressed by the progress made by the WEF’s Reskilling Revolution; an initiative launched in 2020 to empower 1 billion people. So far, the initiative has reached 350 million people.

Climate change also took centre stage at WEF with world leaders and business executives committing themselves to supporting the implementation of the Paris Agreement, which calls on all countries to cut carbon emissions to limit global warming to around 1.5 degrees celsius and strive towards attaining net zero emissions by 2050.

This commitment requires countries and businesses to move away from using fossil fuel energy sources like coal and crude oil and adopting clean and environmentally friendly energy sources such as wind and solar power.

The launch of the new Coalition of Trade Ministers on Climate, which brings together over 50 countries, was also a highlight of this year’s  WEF annual meeting.

The coalition aims to tackle climate change by promoting trade and investment that encourages adoption of goods, services, and technologies that mitigate climate change in both developed and developing countries.

“However, the global challenges that were highlighted at WEF 2023 cannot be resolved in a fragmented world in which countries are pulling in different directions. These challenges require collaboration and unity by the nations of the world, where counties are working together to find solutions in an integrated global economy,” concludes Ntombela.

Ends/////

Issued by Brand South Africa

Notes to the Editor

Contact: Phindi Mathebula

Email:phindilem@brandsouthafrica.com

Mobile number: +27 64 890 7414

About Brand South Africa

Brand South Africa is the official marketing agency of South Africa, with a mandate to build the country’s brand reputation, to improve its global competitiveness. Its aim is also to build pride and patriotism among South Africans, to contribute to social cohesion and nation brand ambassadorship.

This electronic communication and the attached file(s) are subject to a disclaimer which can be viewed at https://www.brandsouthafrica.com/terms-and-conditions . If you are unable to view the disclaimer, please email info@brandsouthafrica.com for a copy.

Ethiopia and the DRC have seen significant FDI inflows from Kenyan firms, while Zambia, Mauritius, Senegal, and Rwanda attract investment through open trade policies and special economic zones .

Title:

Content: Part I: Attracting Foreign Investment into Africa may not come from the Sweet Stories we tell Foreigners

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By Edward Chisanga

I attended an Investment Forum in Utopia last week where Utopian countries had a rare opportunity to speak their minds out to foreigners who had attended in large numbers together with their Heads of State. The Master of ceremony began by introducing the private sector from rich countries present from France, UK, USA, Germany, Netherlands, and others from the EU membership before turning to the Utopian Heads of State and their groups.

What Foreign Investors Heard

Then he called upon one Utopian Head of State to speak on behalf of all the fifty-five African countries in attendance to list compelling factors that would captivate foreign investors from rich countries to go and invest in Africa.

The President began, “Africa is a huge piece of land, most of which is underutilized. All the countries that I represent here boast of huge land available for you investors. Come and invest in Africa, the continent of the future.” Then the President turned to one of the Presidents in his group and allowed him to speak about his country’s promotion of investment.

“Zambia has one of the most open trade environments in Africa and is a member of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and the Common Markets for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). Businesses in Zambia benefit from one of the lowest profit taxes in the region. Increasing regional cooperation through multilateral organisations, including SADC and the African Union should continue to reduce the likelihood of interstate conflict.” Then he highlighted ‘Some of the government incentives to FDI as:

  1. Dividends paid out on farming profits are exempt for the first five years of activity.
  2. Initial allowance of 10% on capital expenditure incurred on the construction or improvement of an industrial building is deductible.
  3. Foreign exchange losses of a capital nature incurred on borrowings used for the building and construction of an industrial or commercial building are tax deductible.
  4. Income earned by companies in the first year of listing on the Lusaka stock exchange qualifies for a 2% discount on the applicable company tax rate in the particular sector. However, companies with more than 1/3 of their shareholding in the hands of Zambians qualify for a 7% discount.
  5. Implements, machinery and plant used for farming, manufacturing or tourism qualify for wear and tear allowance of 50% of the cost per year in the first two years of activity.

He continued, “Investors who invest at least USD250,000 in any sector or product not provided for as a priority sector or product, is entitled to non-fiscal incentives such as investment guarantees and protection against state nationalization and protection against non-commercial risks (Zambia is a signatory of Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency).”

Then the moderating African President turned to South Africa’s President and gave him the floor. President Cyril Ramaphosa was quick and went straight to the point by referring his audience to his weekly newsletter output, ‘From the Desk of the President,’ and repeated the points he recently made in the United Kingdom, “Government has a bold vision to be a destination of choice for foreign direct investment and this requires far-reaching reforms. These include reducing the cost of doing business for both large and small businesses, improving the quality of South Africa’s institutions, enhancing administrative efficiency and governance systems.”

When the turn of the Ethiopian Prime Minister came, he repeated what he had said at the 2019 Davos Meeting in Switzerland, “Investment in infrastructure has contributed a lot to the growth and attracted FDI, making Ethiopia one of the leading FDI destinations in Africa.”

Based on what the three African countries presented as their selling points to attract FDI, the President speaking on behalf of Africa retorted, “The three African countries that have just spoken present a strong representative basis for me to conclude that Africa is ripe and ready for FDI. “You have heard yourselves from the horses’ mouths,” He proudly said. “There’re similar incentives in Rwanda, Benin, Lesotho, Burkina Faso and all other countries. It’s time for you to come and invest in Africa.”

What Foreign Investors do not hear.

Despite the repeated sweet stories coming from African leaders, there’re equally important things that Foreign Investor don’t hear but that they are aware of.
About Zambia, an UNCTAD Investment Report reports, “Zambia’s infrastructure, whose poor quality is a barrier to investment, should be strengthened by investments in the road network, railways and the construction of power plants. In 2021, a USD 11 billion standard gauge railway project was announced in Zambia, involving US capital, which would expand essential transport links with the outside world. The regulatory environment does not favour entrepreneurial activity, the requirements for commercial licenses being long and costly, and the application of regulations not being uniform. In addition, the protection of property rights and the enforcement of contracts are still weak by international standards.”

As the author of this article is a Zambian living in Zambia, he is aware of the challenges coming the country’s energy sector. We have loadshedding in Zambia which Foreign Investors are aware of. They’re aware that the Mining sector, the country’s brain earner depends on use of energy, yet it is not exempted from malady of shortages. Equally, they know how much Zambia’s private sector suffers from energy shortage and its effect on business.

In South Africa, despite sweet stories, except only in 2021inward FDI flows have been declining significantly since 2010 as Figure 1 below shows. Even if this dwindling trend were to be attributed to other factors, the deteriorating energy situation in South Africa is playing a multiplier effect on FDI and the overall economy. Yet, South Africa like other African countries’ Heads of State turn a blind eye on the matter. As for many other things going unwell, they simply don’t tell the truth about the energy crisis.

In Ethiopia, Laments Omer Redi, “The crisis in the power supply has reached such a critical point that blackouts now occur every other day.” Fortune adds, “It is obvious that Ethiopia is now in such a serious power crisis that it has been forced to introduce load shedding.” There are other voices no longer silent. Said Kevin Daly of London based investment company, “Ethiopia is uninventable now. The political situation is very tenuous, and there is a lack of information and clarity on the economy, and on how things are going to be resolved.”

Concluding

Policy coherence is defined by the OECD as, “The systematic promotion of mutually reinforcing policy actions across government departments and agencies creating synergies towards achieving the agreed objectives.” The wonderful incentive packages must be complemented with other key inputs to build a whole.

For example, just as a motor vehicle cannot move smoothly if one key part falls off, you cannot attract adequate FDI with a list of incentives only when the energy sector, upon which industry depends is in crisis. Fix energy, infrastructure, human skills, corruption, rule of law, security, etc to arrive at a complete package of what attracts FDI. FDI goes to Asia because there’s no infrastructure, human capital, or energy crisis.

All these are well built. Asia also has bigger land than Africa. We cannot keep on using obsolete factors that are abandoned by others to attract FDI. It’s like always saying, “Come to Zambia and see the Victoria Falls.” Foreign Tourists now go to beautiful cities without dust, simply to visit, feel safe and talk to honest and humble citizens with Asians largely qualifying in almost all these. Our cities, including Livingstone, are not ripe for serious tourism that builds wealth.

Foreign Investors or tourists are not our uncles on whose shoulders we will simply cry and await their positive response. They will not come simply because we are democratic and shout that Zambia is ready for business. They are not cajoled by sympathy or simply because Zambia’s leadership change occurs smoothly. They have not come since change from Kaunda to Chiluba or Chiluba to Banda or Banda to Sata which were all peaceful and democratic. We must understand what their needs are. If we don’t provide, they’ll go to Asia.

Title:

Content: Free zones may be Africa’s best chance to accelerate wealth creation

By Sylvia Brune

Co-founder of AHOY – a flight booking and concierge app – Sylvia Brune discusses why free zones may be Africa’s best chance to accelerate wealth.

Given the demand for goods and services from Africa’s growing middle classes, the continent has huge potential for growth. Over the past year, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Africa grew by 11%, bucking the global trend and potentially setting a bright precedent for the future.

Whether this upwards trend in FDI will have a positive effect on growth and wealth creation is, however, still unknown. Studies have shown that capital has little impact on an undeveloped foundation. Key components needed to enhance capital’s productivity are infrastructure (not just physical), a stable and transparent legal framework, and skilled labour.

Where these are lacking, investors into the continent have to first ‘build’ the commercial foundation, before commencing their projects. Like spending money on hiring advisors, lawyers, and accountants to navigate the various countries’ economic environments, political systems, and bureaucracy. This adds time and uncertainty to projects, acting as an effective ‘tax’ on any return on investment - meaning only projects with a very high upside will be embarked upon.

Evidence suggests that these key components are indeed lacking across most of Africa, albeit with a small handful of countries on the road to improvement.

Countries, like Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire, have made important strides to improve anti-corruption institutions. Cabo Verde and Gambia have managed to gain local trust with 85% and 84% believing their government is fundamentally sound. And Mauritius and Rwanda have made it into the top 35 countries in the world as measured by economic and personal freedom, with Mauritius marginally beating Norway in the global ranking.

The reality is, however, that corruption continues to undermine the rule of law across most of Africa (which hosts 13 of the globe’s 20 most corrupt countries). Rule of law relates to strong property rights, government integrity, and judicial effectiveness - the basis for a sound investment environment. What is even worse than corruption’s effect on FDI, though, is its effect on retaining and developing talent.

Instability and lack of opportunity continues to result in brain-drain - drawing talent and skill away from the continent. The World Bank estimates one-in-nine Africans with a tertiary education live away from Africa – a 50% growth since the mid-00s.

So, what’s the solution?

Given the long, tough road ahead towards building economically sound environments across Africa, I believe the only solution in the short run, is establishing 100s of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) throughout the continent.

For those unfamiliar with SEZs, they are areas which operate under a different legal framework to the country they inhabit – with investment-friendly laws around commercial transactions, taxes, and the protection of private property. SEZs’ advantage is that you avoid building on top of broken legacy system, instead creating a pre-packaged, investor-ready climate.

These zones have been successfully tested and run in China and the Four Tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) to attract considerable FDI, and experience decades of double-digit growth. This format could likewise be used to boost and sustain investor interest in Africa.

SEE ALSO:

SEZs as talent hubs

While SEZs are known mostly as attractive investment environments, with conducive infrastructure and legal frameworks, the secret to their success rate is actually in their ability to attract and retain talent and skilled labour in specialised hubs.

China showed just how powerful an industry focus within SEZs can be. Because they provide a magnetic effect of highly specialised knowledge hubs - comprised of domestic, regional, and international talent.

Capital is like fuel, it’s only effective where there is a flame to throw it on. And that flame is talent.

The potential is clear, and I believe Africa has a burgeoning pool of talent waiting to be tapped into. But whether they are able to put their talents to best use, collaborate, and innovate freely is uncertain, and will determine whether they stay, or search for opportunities elsewhere.

A common hurdle, for example, is work visa rules between African countries, which means it’s easier for talent to find good opportunities outside Africa than within Africa. Talented individuals want to work alongside other talent. Similarly, talent and specialists from outside Africa face considerable barriers when trying to obtain work permits.

For example, Mr. Eazi’s emPawa Masterclass, like many creative undertakings, is dependent on bringing together the best talent. Earlier this year, emPawa struggled to bring artists, producers, and mentors together from across Africa. Due to visa rules and uncertain processing times, some were only provided with visas after the masterclass was already over, some not at all.

Here, again, SEZs are a solution. SEZs are able to receive visa allocations relating to their area of specialisation, which increases the likelihood of collaboration and innovation - which in turn attracts capital.

The Andela example

There’s plenty of evidence that talent wants to stay, provided there are the right conditions to do so. A great example is tech recruitment platform Andela, which proves that when start-ups in Africa have access to the best talent, including a global support network, and then tap into local opportunity, they can raise substantial foreign capital, and the local business community benefits as well.

Andela trains candidates for six months before pairing them with clients, many are the Fortune 500 and a number of Silicon Valley start-ups. So far, more than 90% of Andela’s first batch of alumni are still working in Nigeria.

SEZs would be able to turbocharge the work of companies like Andela. After talent has been developed, they need environments where they can make most use of their skills.

Already, countries like Mauritius, Senegal, and Rwanda have and are in the process of creating SEZs, with the view to building infrastructure, a stable legal framework, and enticing skilled labour – it’s an exciting time and I for one, am eager to see the results as more African countries follow their footsteps.

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Title:

Content: When asked for his views on diversification as a strategy for portfolio management, Warren Buffett responded, “diversification is protection against ignorance”. Instead of a diversified portfolio, the Oracle of Omaha famously prefers a concentrated one, composed of a few sectors he has rigorously studied.

The UK’s investment strategy for the African continent is seemingly straight out of the Buffett playbook. As of 2020, the UK holds $65bn in total foreign direct investment (FDI) stock in Africa, second only to China. The vast majority of the portfolio is in oil, gas, mining and financial services.

In 2022 five new oil and gas deals worth £2.1bn were struck at the UK-Africa summit. In stark contrast, just £161m (8% of the total summit commitments) were invested in clean energy. One may agree with the UK’s strategy, suggesting that there aren’t many other high-yield investments to be made other than in oil majors, legacy miners and grey-haired banks. And besides, who would disagree with Buffett’s dictum? He is the sixth-wealthiest person in the world after all.

The truth of the matter is that Buffett would not be as wealthy as he is without adapting to changes in market trends, technologies and geopolitics. In May he sold his remaining stake in chip manufacturer TSMC due to geopolitical considerations (TSMC is based in Taiwan). A concentrated portfolio does not mean a stagnant one. It is this insight that the UK is overlooking, setting itself up to miss opportunities in those new industries rapidly taking shape across the world’s youngest and most promising continent.

Two trends are shaping markets across the continent. One of these is the adoption of financial technologies and the other is increased demand for healthcare, a consequence of Africa’s population boom and rising standards of living.

Fintech sector

McKinsey, a consultancy, estimated that revenues in the African fintech sector could surge eight times their current value to $30bn by 2025. Between 2020 and 2021 alone, the number of tech start-ups tripled to 5,200 companies. In 2021, seven of the 10 newly minted African unicorns (private companies valued over $1bn) are fintechs. As more Africans get connected and as digital identification verification models mature, fintechs will scale and profits will follow.

The second sector is pharmaceuticals. As Africa’s population grows and incomes rise, more money will be spent on healthcare. Within this sector, the Covid-19 pandemic laid bare the worrisome state of Africa’s vaccine and therapeutic manufacturing capabilities. Estimates vary, but some assessments forecast vaccine demand to double in volume from about 1-billion doses now to more than 2.7-billion doses by 2040. Industries adjacent to pharmaceuticals such as logistics, packaging and protective equipment are likely to cash in on increased private and public healthcare expenditure.

There are some positive signs that the newly revamped British International Investment (BII), formally the Commonwealth Development Corporation, is adjusting its investments because of these market trends. In 2020, the BII made a $150m investment in Kelix bio, a pan-African pharmaceutical platform focusing on manufacturing and marketing. It also executed a $20m, four-year structured credit deal with Moove, a fintech company that provides customers with cheaper access to vehicles.

Risk premium

These steps are positive but they are small. Inward FDI for Africa remains pitiful. Last year set a record for the continent, bringing in $83bn. To put this in context, the City of London in 2020 hit $831bn in FDI (10 times that of a continent of 54 countries), according to the Office of National Statistics.

What to make of this all? At least two insights. First, the UK should look to new sectors, taking bold bets in companies leading the fintech and pharmaceutical sectors. The second insight is that Africa’s risk premium is overpriced. There is opportunity beyond the industries of the 20th century; one just needs to look for them.

• Nott works for a venture facility for public benefit and is based in London. He writes in his personal capacity. You can follow his writing on Twitter @TheAfricaBrief.

Picture: 123RF

The technology sector is booming, with the number of tech startups tripling between 2020 and 2021 and fintech companies accounting for seven of the ten new African unicorns in 2021 .

Infrastructure remains a key focus, with