# Javier Milei's Policy Agenda in Argentina: Economic Reforms, Political Approach, and Institutional Impact

## Introduction

Javier Milei assumed the presidency of Argentina on December 10, 2023, inheriting one of the country's most severe economic crises in decades.

With inflation reaching 140% annually at the time of his inauguration and the country in its sixth recession in a decade, Milei has implemented a radical libertarian and market-oriented policy agenda aimed at fundamentally restructuring Argentina's economy, political landscape, and international relations.

This report examines the key components of Milei's policy agenda and their impact on Argentina's institutions, economy, and society.

## Economic Reforms

### Dollarization and Monetary Policy

The centerpiece of Milei's economic platform is the proposal to replace Argentina's peso with the US dollar, a policy known as dollarization.

This radical measure is designed to address Argentina's chronic inflation problem, which has worsened to 254% annually under his presidency.

Milei has argued that dollarization would eliminate the government's ability to print money to finance spending, which he identifies as the primary driver of inflation.

Complementing this approach, Milei has pledged to close Argentina's Central Bank, which he accuses of "printing money extensively to finance excessive government spending.

" This reflects his libertarian philosophy of eliminating state control over monetary policy.

### Austerity Measures and Government Restructuring

Milei has implemented significant austerity measures as part of his economic reform agenda.

These measures have included substantial cuts to government spending and social programs.

As part of his government restructuring plan, he has eliminated approximately ten ministries, reducing the size and scope of the federal government.

These austerity policies have had immediate social consequences.

Poverty now affects 57% of Argentina's population of 46 million, with food inflation reaching 56%.

The worsening economic conditions have sparked protests, particularly among women's rights activists who have organized feminist strikes demanding solutions to Argentina's "food emergency.

"

## Political Approach

### Libertarian Ideology

Milei governs as a self-described libertarian with a radical free-market orientation.

His political approach represents a sharp break from Argentina's traditional political establishment, which has historically alternated between Peronist and more centrist policies.

His libertarian philosophy emphasizes minimal state intervention in the economy, individual liberties, and free-market solutions to social and economic problems.

### Unconventional Leadership Style

Milei has distinguished himself through an unconventional and often provocative leadership style.

Initially viewed by investors as potentially "an eccentric quack," his approach has been characterized by what some observers described as "circus antics of campaigning.

" However, since taking office, investors appear to be "betting that Milei is the real deal," suggesting growing confidence in his economic vision despite his unconventional methods.

His communication style includes inflammatory rhetoric, as demonstrated in his diplomatic conflicts with Spain, where he made personal attacks on Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, calling him an "arrogant socialist" with an "inferiority complex" and suggesting he seek psychological counseling.

## Institutional Reforms

### Government Restructuring

Milei has pursued significant institutional reforms aimed at reducing the size and scope of government.

His administration has eliminated approximately ten ministries, representing a substantial downsizing of Argentina's federal government.

This restructuring reflects his libertarian philosophy of minimizing state intervention in economic and social affairs.

### Legislative Constraints

Despite his ambitious agenda, Milei faces significant institutional constraints, particularly limited legislative authority.

This limitation has forced his administration to pursue some reforms through executive decrees rather than legislative processes, potentially creating constitutional tensions.

## International Relations

### Shifting Approach to China

Milei's approach to international relations has evolved significantly since taking office.

During his campaign, he took a strong anti-China stance, stating he had "no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil for 'ideological' reasons" and even referring to China as "assassins.

" However, since assuming the presidency, his tone has softened considerably.

In office, Milei has acknowledged that "if people want to do business with China, they can" and that trade relations between China and Argentina "haven't changed at all.

" His government has maintained the $18 billion currency swap agreement with China.

This pragmatic shift appears to recognize the economic reality that China has become an indispensable trading partner for Argentina, particularly as the country faces severe economic challenges.

Despite this softer rhetoric, cooperation projects with China, such as the Santa Cruz Hydroelectric Project, have been stalled, reflecting the ongoing tensions in the relationship.

### Realignment with Western Powers

Milei has pursued a clear realignment toward Western powers, particularly the United States and Israel.

He has stated that his foreign policy would focus on cooperation with the "American-Israeli axis," with plans to move Argentina's embassy to Jerusalem and make his first foreign visits to the US and Israel.

His government has also withdrawn Argentina's application to join the BRICS bloc, reversing the previous government's position.

This decision reflects his ideological alignment with Western powers and his skepticism of emerging economies that challenge the traditional global order.

### Diplomatic Conflicts

Milei's provocative diplomatic style has led to conflicts with traditional partners.

Most notably, his inflammatory comments about Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife led Spain to "permanently" recall its ambassador from Argentina, representing a significant deterioration in bilateral relations.

## Impact and Implications

### Economic Consequences

Milei's economic policies have produced mixed results.

While investors initially uncertain about his presidency now appear more confident in his economic vision, the short-term social consequences have been severe.

Poverty rates have increased, with 57% of the population now affected, and food insecurity has worsened significantly.

The long-term success of his dollarization plan remains uncertain.

Critics argue that it would deplete Argentina's central bank's US dollar reserves, making the transition excessively costly and potentially resulting in hyperinflation.

However, supporters counter that Argentina's inflation crisis predates Milei's proposal and is the result of years of poor monetary policies.

### Social Impact

The austerity measures implemented by Milei's government have had significant social consequences.

Growing poverty and food insecurity have sparked widespread protests, particularly among women's rights activists who have organized strikes demanding solutions to Argentina's "food emergency.

"

### Institutional Transformation

Milei's presidency represents a fundamental challenge to Argentina's political and economic institutions.

His attempts to close the Central Bank and dollarize the economy, if successful, would represent one of the most significant institutional transformations in Argentina's history.

However, his limited legislative authority has constrained his ability to implement these reforms fully.

## Conclusion

Javier Milei's policy agenda represents a radical departure from Argentina's traditional approach to governance, economics, and international relations.

His libertarian, market-oriented reforms aim to fundamentally restructure Argentina's economy through dollarization, austerity measures, and government downsizing.

While these policies have garnered increasing confidence from investors, they have also exacerbated social challenges, including rising poverty and food insecurity.

Milei's unconventional leadership style and provocative diplomacy have created tensions with traditional partners while signaling a realignment toward Western powers.

The ultimate success of his agenda remains uncertain, as it faces significant institutional constraints and potential social resistance.

For Argentina, the Milei presidency represents a high-stakes experiment in libertarian governance that could either pull the country out of its long cycle of economic crises or further entrench its challenges.

The outcome will have significant implications not only for Argentina but also as a potential model for other countries in Latin America and beyond facing similar economic difficulties.

# Javier Milei's Policy Agenda in Argentina: Economic Reforms, Political Approach, and Institutional Impact

## Introduction

Javier Milei assumed the presidency of Argentina on December 10, 2023, inheriting one of the country's most severe economic crises in decades.

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Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
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Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

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Content: November 25, 2023

Following Sunday’s election results, Javier Meili is set to become Argentina’s president on December 10. Among other things, President-elect Miley has vowed to replace the peso with the US dollar, a policy known as dollarization. Some critics have argued that dollarization would deplete the Argentine central bank’s US dollar reserves, making dollarization excessively costly and ultimately resulting in hyperinflation. However, in leveling this criticism, they misinterpret Argentina’s current economic situation and fail to consider real-world cases of dollarization during an inflationary crisis.

The risk of hyperinflation in Argentina is not due to Javier Miley’s advocacy of dollarization. Instead, it is the result of years of bad monetary policies. Inflation has been rising steadily since 2007, long before Miley proposed dollarization (and almost anyone in Argentina even thought about the possibility of dollarization).

Some experts argue that, by international standards, Argentina is already experiencing hyperinflation. According to Philip Kagan’s seminal 1956 study, most economists define hyperinflation as an inflation rate greater than 50 percent monthly. To put this in perspective, the average annual inflation rate in Europe between 1950 and 1955 was 5.1 percent. In Kagan’s words, a hyperinflation country experienced monthly price increases that were ten times greater than the price increases experienced by a typical European country in a normal year.

The monetary policy landscape is very different today than in the years immediately preceding Kagan’s study. Over the five-year period ending January 2020, just before the pandemic, the EU’s average annual inflation rate was just 0.98 percent. Using Kagan’s ratio, this would mean that a country experiencing at least 9.8 percent inflation per month has hyperinflation. Argentina saw monthly inflation rates of 12.7 percent and 8.3 percent in September and October, respectively. Therefore, adjusting Cagan’s hyperinflation threshold to reflect general improvements in monetary policy elsewhere would reveal that Argentina is already experiencing hyperinflation. While there is certainly potential for further decline, critics of dollarization need to acknowledge just how serious Argentina’s inflation is in the context of the modern global economy.

International experiences show that dollarization and hyperinflation are interconnected issues, but this is not the case according to critics of dollarization. For example, Ecuador adopted dollarization in January 2000 to prevent hyperinflation. Ecuador’s dollarization proved effective. Dollarization immediately brought Ecuador’s inflation rate into alignment with that of the US and then kept it stable over the next decade, despite economic challenges and two sovereign debt defaults. Another compelling example is Zimbabwe, which adopted dollarization in January 2009 to combat hyperinflation. The result was also successful, with inflation reaching US levels by January 2010. As these cases show, dollarization may be a solution to hyperinflation. Argentina could also either resort to dollarization to prevent hyperinflation, or avoid it if inflation gets out of control.

The risk of hyperinflation in Argentina stems not from an intention to create a dollar but from a central bank that appears unable or unwilling to exercise restraint. Argentina’s historical record shows that central bank independence is absent and not easily secured. For better or worse, dollarization offers the safest path to avoid monetary collapse. This provides Argentina with an opportunity to implement much-needed reforms and move forward on a sustainable development path. Dollarization may make things worse before they get better. But to argue that monetary reform that is supposed to tame inflation will lead to hyperinflation is a distorted view of Argentina’s economic reality.

nicholas kachanowski

Dr. Kachanowski is Associate Professor of Economics and El Paso Woody L. Hunt is the director of the Center for Free Enterprise at the University of Texas in the College of Business. He is also a Fellow of the UCEMA Friedman-Hayek Center for the Study of a Free Society. He served as President of the Association of Private Enterprise Education (APEE, 2021-2022) and on the Board of Directors of the Mont Pelerin Society (MPS, 2018-2022).

He received his Licentiate in Economics from the Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina, his M.A. in Economics and Political Science from the Escuela Superior de Economía y Administración de Empresas (ESADE), and his Ph.D. M.A. in Economics from Suffolk University, Boston

Dr. Kachanowski is the author of Reflexions sobre la economia argentina (Instituto Acton Argentina, 2017), Monetary balance and nominal income targeting (Routledge, 2019), and co-author Austrian Capital Theory: A Modern Survey of Essentials (Cambridge University Press, 2019), Capital and Finance: Theory and History (Routledge, 2020), and Dollarization: Una Solution for Argentina (Editorial Claridad, 2022).

Dr. Kachanowski’s research has been published in outlets such as Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, public choice, Journal of Institutional Economics, Quarterly Review of Economics and FinanceAnd Journal of the History of Economic Thought among other outlets.

Get notified of new articles from Nicholas Kachanowski and AIER.

Source: www.aier.org

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Content: Argentina reaches agreement with IMF on new $4.7 billion tranche
Money and Business
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Argentina ’ s Economy Minister Luis Caputo said his government had agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to continue the expanded lending mechanism and allocate a new tranche of $4.7 billion.
“We have reached an agreement with the IMF as part of the seventh review of the extended credit program.
This is not a new agreement, but a revived one that was not in force because of the failure to achieve the goals set for it. ”
The agreement is now due to be presented to the IMF ’ s board of governors, and after final approval, Argentina will be able to receive a $4.7 billion tranche.
The minister said the $4.7 billion tranche would be used to pay the outstanding payments.
According to the minister, his government did not try to reach a new agreement with the IMF because it would have taken much longer.
For his part, an IMF source pointed out that the said segment "aims to support the efforts of the new authorities to restore macroeconomic stability."
"Although the road to stability will be difficult and the situation will worsen before it improves, the first steps have been successful in avoiding a worsening of the crisis," the source said.
According to the IMF, the Argentine government plans to “achieve a primary surplus of 2% of GDP ” this year.
By November 2023, Argentina ’ s deficit was 1.7% of GDP.
At the end of January 2022, then-Argentine President Alberto Fernandez announced an agreement with the IMF to refinance $44 billion in debt.
In May 2018, Mauricio Macri, who in May 2018 was the head of state, asked the IMF for help and provision of this loan due to the sharp devaluation of the national currency.
Fernández ’ s government described the debt as criminal and disproportionate to the country ’ s capabilities.
On 10 December, Javier Miley took office as President of Argentina.
In his first speech as head of state, he described the situation in the country as critical and pointed to the need for shocking measures in the economy.
Source: TASS
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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
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Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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Content: Two events and an indication that took place last week suggest that there is a new rise of the extreme right in the world, from Europe and the United States to South America.
The three events are the electoral rise of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party, then the victory of the extremist Javier Milley in the presidency of Argentina, and the third indicator is the continued rise and lead of Donald Trump in the opinion polls.
The right-wing Freedom Party won 37 seats in the Dutch parliament, more than double its share, and will therefore have the upper hand in forming a government.
Geert Wilders, 60, founded his party in 2006 with the aim of defending Dutch, not European, culture and identity.
One of the party ’ s most important slogans is to fight against immigrants, especially Arabs, and it has called Moroccan immigrants “scum ” and organized competitions for cartoons offensive to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and vowed to ban the Koran, mosques and the hijab.
He pledged to stop the tsunami of asylum seekers, impose strict controls to “protect Dutch identity and values ” and deport Syrian migrants.
He is also skeptical of the European Union and considers Brussels and its excessive bureaucracy a threat to national sovereignty, calling for greater control over laws, borders and economic policies and pledging to hold a referendum on his country ’ s remaining in the bloc.
The Freedom Party says it is a great friend of the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel, and that relationship will be strengthened by moving the embassy to Jerusalem and closing the Dutch cultural center in Ramallah.
The second important event was the victory of Javier Milley as president of Argentina, whose basic policies are almost identical to those of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and other far-right forces and parties in the world.
He said his first foreign visit would be to the United States and he would meet with a number of Jewish rabbis there, because he follows their teachings.
The second visit will be to Israel, pledging to move his country ’ s embassy to occupied Jerusalem, and his foreign policy will focus on cooperation with the “American-Israeli axis ” and will not negotiate with leftist regimes such as Brazil and China.
The first to congratulate him was also the right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
Milley pledged to deal in the US dollar, abolish the central bank, abolish the health and education ministries, and privatize some major public companies.
But the irony is that the new president ’ s party, Freedom Advances, did not get any of the governors ’ posts, which are dominated by the Peronist movement, and he was also remarkable for saying that his country would not participate in the BRICS and did not intend to work with Russia, China and communist countries.
Millie also said he admired Trump and the latter said he would attend his inauguration.
The third indicator is that opinion polls indicate that Donald Trump is ahead of all potential challengers in the presidential election late next year.
A recent Harvard Center poll with The Hill found that Trump had 48 percent of respondents compared to 41 percent for current president Joe Biden, and even the uncertain 11 percent, when asked again, 53 percent said they would vote for Trump and 47 percent for Biden.
In November, a New York Times poll showed that Trump was five points ahead of Biden in Arizona, six in Georgia, five in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and four in Pennsylvania, while Biden was just two points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.
From the previous events and indicators, it can be concluded in principle that with the sharp polarization in international relations, the severe economic crisis resulting from the Coronavirus epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, recession and the Israeli attack on Gaza, the rise of far-right forces will continue in many countries of the world, especially Europe, especially the eastern side.
This means that in the next stage, the world will come to periods of intense polarization, conflicts and possibly wars.

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Content: China, Argentina face new political reality
National Trend 17: 15 2024 / 02 / 23
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Progress of the Gisai Hydropower Station began to lag in 2021.
Photo taken during the Lunar New Year holidays. (Photo)
Since President Javier Milei took office in December last year, Argentina has repeatedly said that Argentina will stop cooperating with the Chinese government, and the Belt and Road hydropower project, which symbolizes the strategic partnership between China and Argentina, is facing suspension.
After winning the first round of voting, Milai said he did not want to "establish ties with communist countries", and after taking office, it was reported that his foreign minister, Diana Mondino, had met with Taiwan's representative in Argentina.
Among them, the “Guisai Hydropower Station ” project, located in Santa Cruz, Argentina ’ s second largest province, is the most eye-catching.
The world ’ s southernmost hydropower project, located on a glacier, is financed by a consortium of banks from the National Development Bank of China, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Bank of China.
To date, $1.85 billion of the $4.71 billion in total loans have been delivered to Argentina.
However, as early as 2021, the progress of the construction of the hydropower plant was not as expected, and the financing of the Chinese side was shelved.
Since December last year, the project has been in a state of shutdown, and there is no timetable for when it will reopen.
Millet ’ s comments during the campaign, as well as his withdrawal from the former government ’ s application to join the BRICS, further exacerbated tensions between the two countries.
Gustavo Cardozo, a resident researcher at Observa Da China de Brasil, said Argentina ’ s Ministry of Economy and Energy was reviewing the dam project contract, and that if Argentina could not continue the project under the contract, it would have to repay the funds it had already paid and even face the consequences of compensating China ’ s losses.
“Millet is in line with the United States, but it is also clear that China has irreplaceable advantages in financing and economics in Argentina, ” David Feliba, a South American international relations expert in Argentina, explained. In the face of Argentina ’ s disastrous economy, it is impossible to unilaterally cancel the dam project.
Critical Timing Blinken Visits Water Temperature
At a time of deep reform and economic crisis in Argentina, US Secretary of State Colin Blinken visited Argentina and met with Millet. “Blinken ’ s visit is highly important, and the US support for the IMF ’ s bailout and debt restructuring is linked to the Millet government ’ s public support for US and Israeli foreign policy, ” Justa said.
Argentina has listed Hamas as a terrorist organization, in line with the United States.
This will not only help the United States to help Argentina secure financing and international funding, but will also change the geopolitical landscape. ”
Ricardo Valencia, an assistant professor of international relations at Cal State Fullerton, believes that Millet will be very pragmatic about China, but he will not hide his priorities for the United States.
As for whether China will stop investment in Argentina in the future because of Mile ’ s ideological stance, he believes that this will not happen, but the future of financing, including hydropower plants, must be carefully observed.
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Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

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Content: Argentina's president says to make a "paycheck lottery", 3 million people snatched her lucky win.
Posts Tagged ‘ CTWANT ’
Argentina's new president Javier Milei has previously said that if he is elected president, he will dismantle the ruling class, close the government and the central bank, and donate his $3,200, equivalent to about NT $94,000 in salary, and he also said that he will do so, using his Instagram account on the 15th to conduct a "live lottery", but the amount is the last monthly salary of Mirei as a member of about 2.1 million. Argentine pesos, equivalent to about NT $78,000.
"This is my last salary as a public representative because I now have a new job," Mirei told the public in a live broadcast of the 15th, the economic liberal and fiscal conservative president took office, first as a member of the last monthly salary lottery, won by a woman named Gomez, according to World Nation News, about 3 million people participated in the lottery that day.
Originally, Mirei 2 years ago when he ran for the election, he promised to donate his monthly salary after the election to the people's lottery, and after the end of the previous 24 monthly salary lottery, Mirei will publish the transfer certificate on the social platform.
Miley, a 53-year-old economist who has been president of Argentina just two years after entering politics, has pledged to donate his salary: “When I ran for Congress, I promised to donate my salary … as I kept my promise as a representative, and I will continue to do so as president. ”
Born in 1970, Mireille ’ s college year coincided with Argentina ’ s hyperinflation of 1989, which led him to move from being a rock band lead singer and football goalkeeper to an economist determined to study the economy.
After being elected to the Argentine House of Representatives, Mirei gave his monthly salary to the public through a lottery to realize his idea of returning money to the public.
After December 10, Mirei intends to use Mirei economics to vigorously rectify the Argentine economy, he also said in the live broadcast on the 15th, the first task at this stage is to end the vicious inflation crisis, while calling on the people not to be crushed by pessimism.
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Action to Protest Fascist Argentina Pres Melei's Attack on Workers Party PO & Polo Obrero

Date:
Wednesday, June 12, 2024
Time:
12:00 PM - 1:00 PM
Event Type:
Protest
Organizer/Author:
United Front Committee For A Labor Party
Location Details:
San Francisco Federal Building
90 7th St.
San Francisco

6/12/24 SF Emergency Action To Protest Fascist Argentina President Milei's Attack On Workers Party PO & Pollo Obrero
Stop The Repression, Privatization & Union Busting By Fascist Melie &
US Support IMF. Support For Melei

Wednesday June 12, 2024 12:00 Noon
San Francisco Federal Building
90 7th St.
San Francisco

The growing world wide fascist movement is part and parcel of what is happening in Argentina today. The fascist Melei government is instituting a massive assault on the working class with privatization of education and public services and also attacking democratic rights of workers and the people of Argentina.

They have also stopped all delivery of food to poor people who face starvation because of massive inflation. Polo Obrero which has organized the distribution of the food is also under attack and the corrupt Milei government on Monday June 3 raided the offices of the Workers Party PO claiming that they have engaged in corruption in the distribution of food which is being done by Polo Obrero.

This is a blatant political attack without any legal basis but it is aimed at shutting down the PO from opposing the fascist policies of the Milei government.

It has also taken place in part because the PO along with the Left Front organized the first public protest against the Milei regime and this front is fighting for a continuing general strike against the fascist Milei government.

The US government and IMF have fully backed Milei and the US military with the support of Milei is setting up a new base. The CIA has also visited Argentina and Milei to begin preparation for a possible military dictatorship. In 1974 the US, CIA in collusion with AFL-CIO helped organize a military coup that killed thousands of workers and people. The fight to hold those responsible for the murders and terror is opposed by Milei and his fascist government who includes family members who were involved in the coup. The US, CIA and AFL-CIO leadership have never been held accountable for the tortures, imprisonment and murders of the US supported military government.

Milei has also linked up with his techno fascist supporters like Elon Musk who was given the rights to Argentina’s lithium. This fascist cabal backed by US imperialism must be challenged globally.

The rise of fascism in the US is connected directly with the developments in Argentina and that is why Milei is coming to Silicon Valley, Florida and the US in his efforts to build a global fascism movement. This is also backed openly by Trump and his supporters.

On June 12 there will be massive actions in Argentina and the action called in San Francisco is part of a global struggle not only against the Milei but against the growing fascist movement in the US and around the world.

Hands Off The PO and Polo Obrero, Drop The Charges

For Workers Actions and General Strikes To Bring Down the Fascist Milei Government

US Get Out Of Argentina and No US Military Base In Argentina

Stop Privatization & Union Busting In Argentina & The US

For A Workers Government In Argentina and US

STOP Fascism and For A United Front Against Fascism

Initiated by
United Front Committee For A Labor Party http://www.ufclp.org
To endorse, support and participate contact:
info [at] ufclp.org

Additional Info:
Argentina: Milei's "shock therapy”, Capitalism, Socialism & The Working Class
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Rw9oJc6680

Javier Melei, The Class Struggle & The Organization of The Working Class With Guillermo Kane
https://youtu.be/CUOAI_bZmfs

Fascism: San Francisco tech VC applauds fascist Pinochet's helicopter 'death rides'
https://www.thenerdreich.com/san-francisco-tech-vc-applauds-fascist-pinochets-helicopter/
Added to the calendar on Fri, Jun 7, 2024 7:25PM
§Milei Wants To Destroy The Unions & Privatize All Public Services & Education
by United Front Committee For A Labor Party
Milie is launching a massive attack on workers and the poor as well as the unions
§Musk & Milie Thumbs UP
by United Front Committee For A Labor Party
Elon Musk is a big supporter of the fascist Milei
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With inflation reaching 140% annually at the time of his inauguration and the country in its sixth recession in a decade, Milei has implemented a radical libertarian and market-oriented policy agenda aimed at fundamentally restructuring Argentina's economy, political landscape, and international relations.

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Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

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Content: Argentina reaches agreement with IMF on new $4.7 billion tranche
Money and Business
Copy Link https: / / www.rt.com / wrcj
Argentina ’ s Economy Minister Luis Caputo said his government had agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to continue the expanded lending mechanism and allocate a new tranche of $4.7 billion.
“We have reached an agreement with the IMF as part of the seventh review of the extended credit program.
This is not a new agreement, but a revived one that was not in force because of the failure to achieve the goals set for it. ”
The agreement is now due to be presented to the IMF ’ s board of governors, and after final approval, Argentina will be able to receive a $4.7 billion tranche.
The minister said the $4.7 billion tranche would be used to pay the outstanding payments.
According to the minister, his government did not try to reach a new agreement with the IMF because it would have taken much longer.
For his part, an IMF source pointed out that the said segment "aims to support the efforts of the new authorities to restore macroeconomic stability."
"Although the road to stability will be difficult and the situation will worsen before it improves, the first steps have been successful in avoiding a worsening of the crisis," the source said.
According to the IMF, the Argentine government plans to “achieve a primary surplus of 2% of GDP ” this year.
By November 2023, Argentina ’ s deficit was 1.7% of GDP.
At the end of January 2022, then-Argentine President Alberto Fernandez announced an agreement with the IMF to refinance $44 billion in debt.
In May 2018, Mauricio Macri, who in May 2018 was the head of state, asked the IMF for help and provision of this loan due to the sharp devaluation of the national currency.
Fernández ’ s government described the debt as criminal and disproportionate to the country ’ s capabilities.
On 10 December, Javier Miley took office as President of Argentina.
In his first speech as head of state, he described the situation in the country as critical and pointed to the need for shocking measures in the economy.
Source: TASS
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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
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Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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Argentines Take Feminist Strike to the Streets on International Women’s Day

Activists demand an end to austerity measures, growing poverty and worsening food insecurity under President Milei.

Argentinian women from all walks of life will take to the streets nationwide on 8 March, International Women’s Day, as part of a feminist strike calling for an end to the country’s growing poverty, which already affects 57% of the population of 46 million.

The protesters’ “most important demand” is a solution to Argentina’s “food emergency”, said María Claudia Albornoz, an activist from La Poderosa, a group that defends the rights of the five million people living in the country’s 6,500 slums, or villas miseria (misery villages).

Three months after right-wing libertarian president Javier Milei took office, Argentina’s ever-increasing food inflation has reached 56%, according to the latest analysis from La Poderosa. Government data shows the country’s annual inflation rate is 254%.

Real-terms wages and pensions are deteriorating, and people go to supermarkets not knowing whether the money in their pockets will be enough to buy foods they could afford just a few days ago.

Shoppers have one certainty, though: what were once basic goods such as shampoo are now luxury items. The small local grocery stores that allow their customers to pay on an informal trust-based credit system now keep track of only the items and quantities purchased, no longer bothering to note down the prices that are constantly rising.

The spiralling cost of living has been worsened still by Milei’s cuts to ‘ollas populares’, community kitchens run by social, civil and religious organisations, which are a last resort for the most impoverished families.

There are around 44,000 of these kitchens across Argentina, which were able to produce around 10 million meals a day last year.

Since then, Milei’s administration has stopped the government packages of non-perishable food staples, such as pasta, rice and yerba mate (a traditional herbal drink) being sent to these kitchens, arguing that it must conduct an audit on how they use these resources.

The cuts have led to “a very desperate situation”, said Albornoz, whose group La Poderosa runs 158 kitchens nationwide.

“Without these basic food staples, we cannot cook,” she said. “This causes us enormous distress, sadness and pain, because we can’t feed our families, a role that is very much attached to women and gender non-conforming people.”

Protesters have taken to the streets nationwide to demand the cuts are reversed, but the government has doubled down.

Ministers claim the kitchens’ volunteers — many of whom are part of larger groups of organised unemployed, informal workers and leftist activists known as ‘picketers’ — are committing “extortion” by using food to lure people to their protests. They say they made the cuts to end this practice, advising people to enrol in the government’s food support program rather than relying on the community kitchens.

The minister of human capital, Sandra Pettovello, even mocked protesters as they gathered outside the ministry, saying: “Boys, are you hungry? Come one by one and I’ll write down your ID number, your name, where you’re from and you’ll receive help individually.”

But four days later, as more than 10,000 people lined up to meet her, Pettovello signed a $210,000 food assistance agreement with the Christian Alliance of Evangelical Churches of Argentina. “No longer will the picketing organisations be in charge of distributing food and social plans paid for by the national state with the money contributed by working Argentines,” she said.

Shifting Priorities

It is primarily the austerity measures, growing poverty and worsening food insecurity that the 8M feminist strike will denounce this week.

For the first time since feminists began holding open decision-making assemblies in 2015, participants have agreed to make tackling hunger the demonstration’s priority.

Organisers have drafted a manifesto to read out during the demonstration, which includes statements aiming to challenge ‘libertarian’ ideas advocated by Milei, such as: “With hunger and without rights, there is no freedom” and “Enough of austerity and repression”.

Assemblies allow any civil society group or individual to present their concerns to be discussed. They have achieved something that no other social movement in Argentina has managed to: working together to tackle issues of reproduction of domestic and community life, as well as formal and informal work.

But in previous years, the assemblies’ middle-class feminists, who are more likely to be educated, have sought to give priority to protests on issues such as access to abortion, femicides and gender-based violence.

Now, as the country’s economic situation has worsened, their goals have shifted. They are now in agreement with working-class feminists, who have long argued that food security must be their top concern.

“What seems to me to have changed this year is that we are a priority,” Albornoz said. “Feminists were able to begin to reach a consensus on issues that we, the slum dwellers — the people who cannot cover the basic food basket — consider a priority.”

The food basket Albornoz referred to are the essential food items required to sustain an adult for a month. These cost $110 when converted from pesos at the official exchange rate, more than half the average monthly earnings of a person living in an urban area ($218).

The assemblies allow villeras (women who live in slums), feminist academics, trade unionists and LGBTIQ people to share their lived experiences and political thinking, which has enabled the feminists to agree on strategies of resistance.

This is more important than ever, as the misogynist discourse Milei regularly touted during his election campaign has in recent months materialised as an avalanche of regressive measures stripping away the rights of women and LGBTIQ people.

The president has scrapped the Ministry of Women, Gender and Diversity, replacing the entire department with an undersecretariat for protection against gender violence in the newly created Ministry of Human Capital.

His government has also ended two support programmes for victims of gender violence — one that sought to strengthen their economic independence, and another that provided psycho-social and legal help — and fired many of the public employees who worked on the hotline for counselling and assisting victims.

It also closed the National Institute against Discrimination, Xenophobia and Racism, and banned the use of language that is inclusive and gender-neutral in public offices or documents. Defending the move, presidential spokesman Manuel Adorni said inclusive language was being weaponised as “a political business”.

The government has further plans to weaken or dismantle legislation that feminists fought for, such as the 2019 Micaela Law, which introduced mandatory training in gender and gender violence for all public servants and the Law on the Voluntary Interruption of Pregnancy, which legalised abortion in 2020.

Ministers claim these closures and austerity cuts are needed to fix the ailing economy, but the main attacks on women and LGBTIQ people have come from the president himself.

In his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in mid-January, Milei spoke of “the cruelty of the bloody agenda of abortion”, said gender inequality no longer exists and branded feminism “a ridiculous and unnatural fight between men and women”.

Feminists fear the president’s misogyny, combined with his cuts, mean Argentina is “heading towards a scenario of worsening violence in general and gender violence”, according to Raquel Vivanco, who founded the Observatorio Ahora Que Sí Nos Ven (the Now That They See Us Observatory), which tracks femicides in the country.

“These structural conditions of extreme poverty and unemployment, as they increase inequalities, create more violence that can in turn increase numbers of femicide statistics,” said Vivanco.

There were 42 femicides in Argentina in January and February of this year. The observatory recorded the highest-ever number of femicides (297) in 2019, which was rightist president Mauricio Macri’s last year in office and was characterised by austerity policies that were harsh but not as extreme as those being introduced by Milei.

“Left With Absolutely No Rights

Though widespread hunger and attacks on women’s rights are the protesters’ main priorities, they also want Milei to address his measures of ‘economic terror’ and his denials that gender inequalities exist in Argentina.

Lucía Cavallero, a sociologist and researcher at the University of Buenos Aires and a member of Ni Una Menos (Not One Less), a group that fights gender violence, told openDemocracy about the dire economic situation in Argentina.

“There is an unprecedented devaluation of the peso, a deliberate freezing of wages and social subsidies, so inflation is brutal, and a perverse discourse of warning that it could be worse,” she said. “Added to all this is the deregulation of the economy in almost all areas.”

The government’s own data shows that one million people fell into poverty every month for the past three months. Albornoz believes these figures are an underestimate, though, telling openDemocracy that La Poderosa’s analysis indicates an increase of six million impoverished people in the past two months.

Argentina’s school year recently started, forcing many families to try to find creative solutions to not being able to afford school supplies, which cost an average of $150, or uniforms.

The best case scenario saw children reuse items from previous years or pick up supplies from the donation drives that took place across the country. At worst, though, “mothers said they would have to choose which children to send to school because they don’t have the school supplies or the smocks to send them all,” said Cavallero.

The effects of this economic and political turmoil are also being seen in housing, particularly since the government repealed the law regulating the rental market on 29 December.

“It left us tenants with absolutely no rights,” said Tamara Lescano, an activist from the social movement Inquilinas Agrupadas (Tenants United). “The lack of a legal framework enables real estate abuse”.

Rental contracts now have no minimum period and are able to be terminated at landlords’ discretion, without a need to consult the tenants or give a reason for the eviction — which was previously illegal. Landlords can also include unreasonable clauses in the tenancy agreements.

Lescano said the private rental sector in Argentina, which already encompasses some 10 million people, is growing — yet fewer and fewer landlords own more properties than ever.

Inquilinas Agrupadas receives an average of between 40 and 50 requests for advice every day, mainly from women with dependent children, pressured by their mostly male landlords.

“They Are Coming For Us”

The 8M strike faces a fresh challenge this year. Four days after Milei took office, his government outlawed any public protest involving the blocking of roads with a new ‘anti-picketing’ protocol that contains specific clauses allowing the police to criminalise, persecute and stigmatise protesters.

“They identify you in the marches, they take pictures of you, they film you. When we mobilise, the police, who are very violent, quickly repress us,” said Albornoz.

“This has already happened at various times,” she added, referring to hundreds of protests against Milei’s austerity measures that have been organised by different social organisations across the country in recent months.

The protocol also allows the government to issue protest organisers with hefty fines, deprive demonstrators of social aid, and punish parents or guardians who take minors to the marches.

These measures are attempts to intimidate the poorest, many of whom are women, said Gabriela De la Rosa, a member of the Polo Obrero, a social organisation affiliated to Argentina’s Trotskyist Workers’ Party, which runs 3,000 community kitchens nationwide.

“The movement of the unemployed is made up mostly of women comrades, who mobilise with their entire families because they have no one to leave their children with in order to demand food for their children,” De la Rosa told openDemocracy. “On the picket lines, in the encampments, in the mobilisations, the families often have a pot to eat, and at home, they don’t.”

As well as the risk of harsh policing, Argentinian feminists worry their protest could turn violent — fearing Milei’s repeated attacks, coupled with food insecurity and the general uncertainty caused by inflation and low wages, have set the stage for social unrest.

“There is fear of what might happen in the 8 March demonstration,” Albornoz acknowledged. “We have been holding assemblies to dispel this fear and to make the women understand that if we don’t take to the streets and defend our rights, we are going to lose much more than we have already lost.”

The feminists “will take all possible precautions” to avoid violence in the 8 March demonstration, said economist Candelaria Botto, the director of Economía Feminista, which seeks to expose gender inequalities in the world of work and business.

“But we know that we have to be there, on the streets, because they are coming for us.”

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Content: China, Argentina face new political reality
National Trend 17: 15 2024 / 02 / 23
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Progress of the Gisai Hydropower Station began to lag in 2021.
Photo taken during the Lunar New Year holidays. (Photo)
Since President Javier Milei took office in December last year, Argentina has repeatedly said that Argentina will stop cooperating with the Chinese government, and the Belt and Road hydropower project, which symbolizes the strategic partnership between China and Argentina, is facing suspension.
After winning the first round of voting, Milai said he did not want to "establish ties with communist countries", and after taking office, it was reported that his foreign minister, Diana Mondino, had met with Taiwan's representative in Argentina.
Among them, the “Guisai Hydropower Station ” project, located in Santa Cruz, Argentina ’ s second largest province, is the most eye-catching.
The world ’ s southernmost hydropower project, located on a glacier, is financed by a consortium of banks from the National Development Bank of China, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Bank of China.
To date, $1.85 billion of the $4.71 billion in total loans have been delivered to Argentina.
However, as early as 2021, the progress of the construction of the hydropower plant was not as expected, and the financing of the Chinese side was shelved.
Since December last year, the project has been in a state of shutdown, and there is no timetable for when it will reopen.
Millet ’ s comments during the campaign, as well as his withdrawal from the former government ’ s application to join the BRICS, further exacerbated tensions between the two countries.
Gustavo Cardozo, a resident researcher at Observa Da China de Brasil, said Argentina ’ s Ministry of Economy and Energy was reviewing the dam project contract, and that if Argentina could not continue the project under the contract, it would have to repay the funds it had already paid and even face the consequences of compensating China ’ s losses.
“Millet is in line with the United States, but it is also clear that China has irreplaceable advantages in financing and economics in Argentina, ” David Feliba, a South American international relations expert in Argentina, explained. In the face of Argentina ’ s disastrous economy, it is impossible to unilaterally cancel the dam project.
Critical Timing Blinken Visits Water Temperature
At a time of deep reform and economic crisis in Argentina, US Secretary of State Colin Blinken visited Argentina and met with Millet. “Blinken ’ s visit is highly important, and the US support for the IMF ’ s bailout and debt restructuring is linked to the Millet government ’ s public support for US and Israeli foreign policy, ” Justa said.
Argentina has listed Hamas as a terrorist organization, in line with the United States.
This will not only help the United States to help Argentina secure financing and international funding, but will also change the geopolitical landscape. ”
Ricardo Valencia, an assistant professor of international relations at Cal State Fullerton, believes that Millet will be very pragmatic about China, but he will not hide his priorities for the United States.
As for whether China will stop investment in Argentina in the future because of Mile ’ s ideological stance, he believes that this will not happen, but the future of financing, including hydropower plants, must be carefully observed.
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Content: Global News
World Today - Crazy rally in Argentine stock markets after Milly win
You are now following the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Millie from the news section of the world and now we leave you with full details
MOHAMMED, Abu Dhabi, Tuesday, November 21, 2023 07: 21 PM - The Argentine stock market jumped 20% at the opening on Tuesday, in the first reaction to the landslide victory of Argentina ’ s ultra-liberal president-elect Javier Mille.
The rise was contributed by the national oil company YPF, whose shares rose 34 percent after the president-elect announced he would privatize them as part of his reform package.
On Monday, Wall Street listed YPF shares rose 40 percent at the close.
Monday, the day after the election, was a public holiday in Argentina, delaying market reaction.
Milley, 53, an economist who describes himself as a “anarchist capitalist, ” said in his victory speech Sunday evening:“ Today begins the end of decadence ” and the “reconstruction of Argentina ” begins, warning that there will be“ no half-solutions ”.
Milley pledged to give up the peso in favor of the US dollar and shut down the central bank, which he accused of printing money too heavily to fund excessive government spending, in a bid to stem inflation.
Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (143 percent year-on-year) while the value of the peso continues to fall.
During his election campaign, he said he would get rid of about a dozen ministries, among other controversial proposals.
Argentina is currently holding its breath waiting for what he will do when he takes office on Dec. 10, especially as his legislative power is limited.
We hope that we have succeeded in conveying the full details of the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Mili..
In God ’ s care and protection.
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Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

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Content: BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentine President Javier Milli has told BRICS leaders that Buenos Aires will not join the group in early 2024, in keeping with the ultra-liberal president ’ s campaign pledge, the presidency said Friday.
In a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and other BRICS members (Russia, India, China, South Africa), Milley said: “Argentina ’ s accession to the BRICS as a full member country from early January 2024 is not appropriate. ”
The president, who took office on December 10, said his government ’ s foreign policy “differs in many ways from that of the previous government. ”
Review of decisions
"In this context, some of the decisions taken by the previous government will be reviewed, including the establishment of a [...]
It ’ s about the country ’ s participation in BRICS. ”
The last BRICS summit, held in August in Johannesburg, saw invitations to six countries - Argentina, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates - to join the group from early January 2024.
During his campaign, Milley reiterated his refusal to join the BRICS and supported his desire to "support any agreements with the communists because they do not respect the fundamentals of free trade, freedom and democracy."
A spokesman for the Argentine presidency said the letters to the BRICS member states indicate that "we are making a change in foreign policy based on more in-depth analysis than the previous government."

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The Argentine capital, Buenos Aires, witnessed huge celebrations after the victory of the national team in the World Cup, in an achievement that raised the spirits high in the South American country and brought joy to the hearts of people hurt by high prices and the malaise of the economy.
But despite the glare of victory in a thrilling final against France, the grim economic reality is casting a dark shadow over Argentina, with inflation at around 100 percent, tight capital controls, poverty at around 40 percent and a looming fear of default.
The 86-year-old, who was celebrating her country ’ s victory, said: “The World Cup is an overwhelming joy that revives us after suffering a long economic crisis.
But soon we will have to go back to reality and face the situations that burden us every day. ”
Argentina ’ s resounding victory, the first since Diego Maradona lifted the trophy in 1986, sent millions onto the streets to cheer Lionel Messi ’ s national team as a vent of frustration at leaders who have failed to get the economy on track for years.
The crowds were huge and very high.
It has been estimated that between four and five million people filled the streets.
The concourse had to take a shortcut and the players were taken to helicopters to fly over the city.
But after the drunkenness of the victory and its celebrations came the idea and the Argentines returned to reality and its painful realities.
The country, once one of the wealthiest in the world, posted annual inflation of 92.4 percent in November and a record interest rate of 75 percent.
Issues of cash printing, overvaluation of the peso and the decline in foreign reserves are exacerbated.
Investors are concerned that Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who was appointed to fix things in August, is not carrying out enough reforms amid the prospect of a general election late next year that the government fears losing.
Ted Mann, chief equity analyst for emerging markets at Alliance Bernstein, said: “Masa is just trying to address every problem that comes to its head and is very careful not to make any significant reforms before the 2023 election.
Under Massa ’ s leadership, Argentines are exceptional at kicking problems in front of them.
They're better at kicking her than Messi kicking the ball. "
Required Kick
But some Argentines are more optimistic.
Osvaldo Hassan, a 62-year-old trader in Buenos Aires, said: “The World Cup gives us hope and a desire to believe.
"This could be the push we need to build consensus and move the economy forward."
Camilla Gotelli, 25, a marketing professional, said the “historic ” win could boost Argentina by attracting more tourism, creating jobs and strengthening the country ’ s global standing.
A paper from the University of Surrey found that winning the World Cup could give a small boost to a country ’ s economy in the months following the win, helping boost exports.
In the short term, it could also give a boost to leftist President Alberto Fernandez.
His popularity has plummeted due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic woes, despite a new $44 billion deal with the IMF this year.
Carlos Zarate, a 63-year-old trader in the capital, believes this will be in the government ’ s favor for a few days “because it will distract people ”.
As soon as summer in the southern hemisphere is over, "the blow of reality will come."
Last month, ratings agency Moody ’ s criticized Argentina, citing rising central bank debt as a risk to financial stability.
Standard & Poor ’ s has downgraded its rating of Argentina ’ s already struggling local currency bonds to an “undesirable ” rating.
Graham Stock, chief strategist at BlueBay East Management, said he expected positive economic changes from next year ’ s election after a change of government became a rarity after the ruling coalition suffered a crushing defeat in the mid-term last year.
Maria Belén Pereira, 32, an elementary school teacher, said economic changes would not happen overnight and needed the participation of everyone, not just the football team.
"We celebrate because (the team) represents us as a country, but that was the sacrifice of almost 30 people...
For the economy to change, we must all participate. ”
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What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

This report examines the key components of Milei's policy agenda and their impact on Argentina's institutions, economy, and society.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

Title:

Content: Argentina reaches agreement with IMF on new $4.7 billion tranche
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Argentina ’ s Economy Minister Luis Caputo said his government had agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to continue the expanded lending mechanism and allocate a new tranche of $4.7 billion.
“We have reached an agreement with the IMF as part of the seventh review of the extended credit program.
This is not a new agreement, but a revived one that was not in force because of the failure to achieve the goals set for it. ”
The agreement is now due to be presented to the IMF ’ s board of governors, and after final approval, Argentina will be able to receive a $4.7 billion tranche.
The minister said the $4.7 billion tranche would be used to pay the outstanding payments.
According to the minister, his government did not try to reach a new agreement with the IMF because it would have taken much longer.
For his part, an IMF source pointed out that the said segment "aims to support the efforts of the new authorities to restore macroeconomic stability."
"Although the road to stability will be difficult and the situation will worsen before it improves, the first steps have been successful in avoiding a worsening of the crisis," the source said.
According to the IMF, the Argentine government plans to “achieve a primary surplus of 2% of GDP ” this year.
By November 2023, Argentina ’ s deficit was 1.7% of GDP.
At the end of January 2022, then-Argentine President Alberto Fernandez announced an agreement with the IMF to refinance $44 billion in debt.
In May 2018, Mauricio Macri, who in May 2018 was the head of state, asked the IMF for help and provision of this loan due to the sharp devaluation of the national currency.
Fernández ’ s government described the debt as criminal and disproportionate to the country ’ s capabilities.
On 10 December, Javier Miley took office as President of Argentina.
In his first speech as head of state, he described the situation in the country as critical and pointed to the need for shocking measures in the economy.
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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
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Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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Content: Two events and an indication that took place last week suggest that there is a new rise of the extreme right in the world, from Europe and the United States to South America.
The three events are the electoral rise of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party, then the victory of the extremist Javier Milley in the presidency of Argentina, and the third indicator is the continued rise and lead of Donald Trump in the opinion polls.
The right-wing Freedom Party won 37 seats in the Dutch parliament, more than double its share, and will therefore have the upper hand in forming a government.
Geert Wilders, 60, founded his party in 2006 with the aim of defending Dutch, not European, culture and identity.
One of the party ’ s most important slogans is to fight against immigrants, especially Arabs, and it has called Moroccan immigrants “scum ” and organized competitions for cartoons offensive to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and vowed to ban the Koran, mosques and the hijab.
He pledged to stop the tsunami of asylum seekers, impose strict controls to “protect Dutch identity and values ” and deport Syrian migrants.
He is also skeptical of the European Union and considers Brussels and its excessive bureaucracy a threat to national sovereignty, calling for greater control over laws, borders and economic policies and pledging to hold a referendum on his country ’ s remaining in the bloc.
The Freedom Party says it is a great friend of the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel, and that relationship will be strengthened by moving the embassy to Jerusalem and closing the Dutch cultural center in Ramallah.
The second important event was the victory of Javier Milley as president of Argentina, whose basic policies are almost identical to those of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and other far-right forces and parties in the world.
He said his first foreign visit would be to the United States and he would meet with a number of Jewish rabbis there, because he follows their teachings.
The second visit will be to Israel, pledging to move his country ’ s embassy to occupied Jerusalem, and his foreign policy will focus on cooperation with the “American-Israeli axis ” and will not negotiate with leftist regimes such as Brazil and China.
The first to congratulate him was also the right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
Milley pledged to deal in the US dollar, abolish the central bank, abolish the health and education ministries, and privatize some major public companies.
But the irony is that the new president ’ s party, Freedom Advances, did not get any of the governors ’ posts, which are dominated by the Peronist movement, and he was also remarkable for saying that his country would not participate in the BRICS and did not intend to work with Russia, China and communist countries.
Millie also said he admired Trump and the latter said he would attend his inauguration.
The third indicator is that opinion polls indicate that Donald Trump is ahead of all potential challengers in the presidential election late next year.
A recent Harvard Center poll with The Hill found that Trump had 48 percent of respondents compared to 41 percent for current president Joe Biden, and even the uncertain 11 percent, when asked again, 53 percent said they would vote for Trump and 47 percent for Biden.
In November, a New York Times poll showed that Trump was five points ahead of Biden in Arizona, six in Georgia, five in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and four in Pennsylvania, while Biden was just two points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.
From the previous events and indicators, it can be concluded in principle that with the sharp polarization in international relations, the severe economic crisis resulting from the Coronavirus epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, recession and the Israeli attack on Gaza, the rise of far-right forces will continue in many countries of the world, especially Europe, especially the eastern side.
This means that in the next stage, the world will come to periods of intense polarization, conflicts and possibly wars.

Title:

Content: Global News
World Today - Crazy rally in Argentine stock markets after Milly win
You are now following the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Millie from the news section of the world and now we leave you with full details
MOHAMMED, Abu Dhabi, Tuesday, November 21, 2023 07: 21 PM - The Argentine stock market jumped 20% at the opening on Tuesday, in the first reaction to the landslide victory of Argentina ’ s ultra-liberal president-elect Javier Mille.
The rise was contributed by the national oil company YPF, whose shares rose 34 percent after the president-elect announced he would privatize them as part of his reform package.
On Monday, Wall Street listed YPF shares rose 40 percent at the close.
Monday, the day after the election, was a public holiday in Argentina, delaying market reaction.
Milley, 53, an economist who describes himself as a “anarchist capitalist, ” said in his victory speech Sunday evening:“ Today begins the end of decadence ” and the “reconstruction of Argentina ” begins, warning that there will be“ no half-solutions ”.
Milley pledged to give up the peso in favor of the US dollar and shut down the central bank, which he accused of printing money too heavily to fund excessive government spending, in a bid to stem inflation.
Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (143 percent year-on-year) while the value of the peso continues to fall.
During his election campaign, he said he would get rid of about a dozen ministries, among other controversial proposals.
Argentina is currently holding its breath waiting for what he will do when he takes office on Dec. 10, especially as his legislative power is limited.
We hope that we have succeeded in conveying the full details of the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Mili..
In God ’ s care and protection.
Advertisements
You may also read.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

Title:

Content: BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentine President Javier Milli has told BRICS leaders that Buenos Aires will not join the group in early 2024, in keeping with the ultra-liberal president ’ s campaign pledge, the presidency said Friday.
In a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and other BRICS members (Russia, India, China, South Africa), Milley said: “Argentina ’ s accession to the BRICS as a full member country from early January 2024 is not appropriate. ”
The president, who took office on December 10, said his government ’ s foreign policy “differs in many ways from that of the previous government. ”
Review of decisions
"In this context, some of the decisions taken by the previous government will be reviewed, including the establishment of a [...]
It ’ s about the country ’ s participation in BRICS. ”
The last BRICS summit, held in August in Johannesburg, saw invitations to six countries - Argentina, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates - to join the group from early January 2024.
During his campaign, Milley reiterated his refusal to join the BRICS and supported his desire to "support any agreements with the communists because they do not respect the fundamentals of free trade, freedom and democracy."
A spokesman for the Argentine presidency said the letters to the BRICS member states indicate that "we are making a change in foreign policy based on more in-depth analysis than the previous government."

Title:

Content:     • Live
    • Audio Only
News > Argentina

Memory, Truth And Justice Day: Argentina 48 Years After Videla

Published 24 March 2024 (2 hours 13 minutes ago)
Opinion

''The Argentine democracy has an enormous debt: to restore the identity of some 300 people''.

Today, March 24, Argentina commemorates the installation of the military dictatorship of Jorge Rafael Videla, 48 years ago. In the framework of the arrival at Casa Rosada of an ultra-right government, social movements, political groups and students mobilized towards squares throughout the country.

RELATED:

Argentina: Javier Milei Will Close Télam News Agency

The day is known as the Day of Memory, Truth and Justice, and the largest concentration was in Plaza de Mayo, in one of the most massive marches of the 40 years since the restoration of democracy.

Mobilizations around all the country are marked by an special context now when the Javier Milei's government denies the Videla's dictatorship and all crimes committed by the military ruling after a military coup in March 24, 1976 and lasted until 10 December 1983.

In the event that took the Plaza de Mayo and streets surrounding the Casa Rosada, participated 'Las Abuelas y Madres de Plaza de Mayo', along with the human rights organization H.I.J.O.S, Alex Kicillof, governor of the Province of Buenos Aires, an activist, professor, Argentine sculptor and painter, Nobel Peace Prize winner Adolfo Pérez Esquivel.

Also, during the act of remembrance took place the reading of a document repudiating the negationism and totalitarian practices of the government of Milei and Patricia Villarruel: ''Forty-eight years after the genocidal coup, we met again in the Plaza de Mayo. We arrived here, as always, to shout loudly: THERE ARE 30,000! THEY ARE PRESENT! IT WAS GENOCIDE! AND THIS PEOPLE SAID NEVER AGAIN!''

''The Argentine democracy has an enormous debt: to restore the identity of some 300 people, the majority born in the clandestine maternity hospitals of the dictatorship, who today are adults between 41 and 49 years old,'' reads the document.

The document criticises the macro-economic and liberal adjustments of the economy imposed by the government of Javier Milei: 'It is the re-edition of the planned misery of Martínez de Hoz.'' José Alfredo Martínez de Hoz was the Minister of Economy of the military dictatorship, measures similar to those of Milei which proved disastrous.

The protesters claimed that ''Never More Planned Misery! Never More Hatred, Never More Political Violence!'' and recalled that ''A government that is not at the service of the people, is against the people''.

On the other hand, the Nobel Prize winner Adolfo Pérez Esquivel highlighted that "We reject the denial and apology of State terrorism" and demanded "the continuity of the policies of Memory, Truth and Justice promoted by the Secretariat of Human Rights and the preservation of Sites and Spaces of Memory'.

"We remind this government that it must bear in mind that with hatred, repression and revenge, a more just and fraternal society cannot be built,' added the Nobel.

## Economic Reforms

### Dollarization and Monetary Policy

The centerpiece of Milei's economic platform is the proposal to replace Argentina's peso with the US dollar, a policy known as dollarization.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: Global News
World Today - Crazy rally in Argentine stock markets after Milly win
You are now following the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Millie from the news section of the world and now we leave you with full details
MOHAMMED, Abu Dhabi, Tuesday, November 21, 2023 07: 21 PM - The Argentine stock market jumped 20% at the opening on Tuesday, in the first reaction to the landslide victory of Argentina ’ s ultra-liberal president-elect Javier Mille.
The rise was contributed by the national oil company YPF, whose shares rose 34 percent after the president-elect announced he would privatize them as part of his reform package.
On Monday, Wall Street listed YPF shares rose 40 percent at the close.
Monday, the day after the election, was a public holiday in Argentina, delaying market reaction.
Milley, 53, an economist who describes himself as a “anarchist capitalist, ” said in his victory speech Sunday evening:“ Today begins the end of decadence ” and the “reconstruction of Argentina ” begins, warning that there will be“ no half-solutions ”.
Milley pledged to give up the peso in favor of the US dollar and shut down the central bank, which he accused of printing money too heavily to fund excessive government spending, in a bid to stem inflation.
Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (143 percent year-on-year) while the value of the peso continues to fall.
During his election campaign, he said he would get rid of about a dozen ministries, among other controversial proposals.
Argentina is currently holding its breath waiting for what he will do when he takes office on Dec. 10, especially as his legislative power is limited.
We hope that we have succeeded in conveying the full details of the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Mili..
In God ’ s care and protection.
Advertisements
You may also read.

This radical measure is designed to address Argentina's chronic inflation problem, which has worsened to 254% annually under his presidency.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: Global News
World Today - Crazy rally in Argentine stock markets after Milly win
You are now following the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Millie from the news section of the world and now we leave you with full details
MOHAMMED, Abu Dhabi, Tuesday, November 21, 2023 07: 21 PM - The Argentine stock market jumped 20% at the opening on Tuesday, in the first reaction to the landslide victory of Argentina ’ s ultra-liberal president-elect Javier Mille.
The rise was contributed by the national oil company YPF, whose shares rose 34 percent after the president-elect announced he would privatize them as part of his reform package.
On Monday, Wall Street listed YPF shares rose 40 percent at the close.
Monday, the day after the election, was a public holiday in Argentina, delaying market reaction.
Milley, 53, an economist who describes himself as a “anarchist capitalist, ” said in his victory speech Sunday evening:“ Today begins the end of decadence ” and the “reconstruction of Argentina ” begins, warning that there will be“ no half-solutions ”.
Milley pledged to give up the peso in favor of the US dollar and shut down the central bank, which he accused of printing money too heavily to fund excessive government spending, in a bid to stem inflation.
Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (143 percent year-on-year) while the value of the peso continues to fall.
During his election campaign, he said he would get rid of about a dozen ministries, among other controversial proposals.
Argentina is currently holding its breath waiting for what he will do when he takes office on Dec. 10, especially as his legislative power is limited.
We hope that we have succeeded in conveying the full details of the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Mili..
In God ’ s care and protection.
Advertisements
You may also read.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

Milei has argued that dollarization would eliminate the government's ability to print money to finance spending, which he identifies as the primary driver of inflation.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: Global News
World Today - Crazy rally in Argentine stock markets after Milly win
You are now following the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Millie from the news section of the world and now we leave you with full details
MOHAMMED, Abu Dhabi, Tuesday, November 21, 2023 07: 21 PM - The Argentine stock market jumped 20% at the opening on Tuesday, in the first reaction to the landslide victory of Argentina ’ s ultra-liberal president-elect Javier Mille.
The rise was contributed by the national oil company YPF, whose shares rose 34 percent after the president-elect announced he would privatize them as part of his reform package.
On Monday, Wall Street listed YPF shares rose 40 percent at the close.
Monday, the day after the election, was a public holiday in Argentina, delaying market reaction.
Milley, 53, an economist who describes himself as a “anarchist capitalist, ” said in his victory speech Sunday evening:“ Today begins the end of decadence ” and the “reconstruction of Argentina ” begins, warning that there will be“ no half-solutions ”.
Milley pledged to give up the peso in favor of the US dollar and shut down the central bank, which he accused of printing money too heavily to fund excessive government spending, in a bid to stem inflation.
Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (143 percent year-on-year) while the value of the peso continues to fall.
During his election campaign, he said he would get rid of about a dozen ministries, among other controversial proposals.
Argentina is currently holding its breath waiting for what he will do when he takes office on Dec. 10, especially as his legislative power is limited.
We hope that we have succeeded in conveying the full details of the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Mili..
In God ’ s care and protection.
Advertisements
You may also read.

dollarizing the Argentinian currency
criticism of government spending

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What issue did Milei want to address without printing money?

dollarizing the Argentinian currency
criticism of government spending

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What issue did Milei want to address without printing money?

dollarizing the Argentinian currency
criticism of government spending

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What issue did Milei want to address without printing money?

Complementing this approach, Milei has pledged to close Argentina's Central Bank, which he accuses of "printing money extensively to finance excessive government spending.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: Global News
World Today - Crazy rally in Argentine stock markets after Milly win
You are now following the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Millie from the news section of the world and now we leave you with full details
MOHAMMED, Abu Dhabi, Tuesday, November 21, 2023 07: 21 PM - The Argentine stock market jumped 20% at the opening on Tuesday, in the first reaction to the landslide victory of Argentina ’ s ultra-liberal president-elect Javier Mille.
The rise was contributed by the national oil company YPF, whose shares rose 34 percent after the president-elect announced he would privatize them as part of his reform package.
On Monday, Wall Street listed YPF shares rose 40 percent at the close.
Monday, the day after the election, was a public holiday in Argentina, delaying market reaction.
Milley, 53, an economist who describes himself as a “anarchist capitalist, ” said in his victory speech Sunday evening:“ Today begins the end of decadence ” and the “reconstruction of Argentina ” begins, warning that there will be“ no half-solutions ”.
Milley pledged to give up the peso in favor of the US dollar and shut down the central bank, which he accused of printing money too heavily to fund excessive government spending, in a bid to stem inflation.
Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (143 percent year-on-year) while the value of the peso continues to fall.
During his election campaign, he said he would get rid of about a dozen ministries, among other controversial proposals.
Argentina is currently holding its breath waiting for what he will do when he takes office on Dec. 10, especially as his legislative power is limited.
We hope that we have succeeded in conveying the full details of the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Mili..
In God ’ s care and protection.
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Title:

Content: Argentina's president says to make a "paycheck lottery", 3 million people snatched her lucky win.
Posts Tagged ‘ CTWANT ’
Argentina's new president Javier Milei has previously said that if he is elected president, he will dismantle the ruling class, close the government and the central bank, and donate his $3,200, equivalent to about NT $94,000 in salary, and he also said that he will do so, using his Instagram account on the 15th to conduct a "live lottery", but the amount is the last monthly salary of Mirei as a member of about 2.1 million. Argentine pesos, equivalent to about NT $78,000.
"This is my last salary as a public representative because I now have a new job," Mirei told the public in a live broadcast of the 15th, the economic liberal and fiscal conservative president took office, first as a member of the last monthly salary lottery, won by a woman named Gomez, according to World Nation News, about 3 million people participated in the lottery that day.
Originally, Mirei 2 years ago when he ran for the election, he promised to donate his monthly salary after the election to the people's lottery, and after the end of the previous 24 monthly salary lottery, Mirei will publish the transfer certificate on the social platform.
Miley, a 53-year-old economist who has been president of Argentina just two years after entering politics, has pledged to donate his salary: “When I ran for Congress, I promised to donate my salary … as I kept my promise as a representative, and I will continue to do so as president. ”
Born in 1970, Mireille ’ s college year coincided with Argentina ’ s hyperinflation of 1989, which led him to move from being a rock band lead singer and football goalkeeper to an economist determined to study the economy.
After being elected to the Argentine House of Representatives, Mirei gave his monthly salary to the public through a lottery to realize his idea of returning money to the public.
After December 10, Mirei intends to use Mirei economics to vigorously rectify the Argentine economy, he also said in the live broadcast on the 15th, the first task at this stage is to end the vicious inflation crisis, while calling on the people not to be crushed by pessimism.
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closing the central bank
criticism of government spending

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What issue did Milei want to address without printing money?

closing the central bank
criticism of government spending

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What issue did Milei want to address without printing money?

closing the central bank
criticism of government spending

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What issue did Milei want to address without printing money?

closing the central bank
criticism of government spending

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What issue did Milei want to address without printing money?

closing the central bank
criticism of government spending

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What issue did Milei want to address without printing money?

" This reflects his libertarian philosophy of eliminating state control over monetary policy.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

dollarizing the Argentinian currency
closing the central bank

suspended 366 decrees to ease economic controls and reduce spending.

### Austerity Measures and Government Restructuring

Milei has implemented significant austerity measures as part of his economic reform agenda.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

These measures have included substantial cuts to government spending and social programs.

suspended 366 decrees to ease economic controls and reduce spending.

As part of his government restructuring plan, he has eliminated approximately ten ministries, reducing the size and scope of the federal government.

These austerity policies have had immediate social consequences.

How will Milei's reforms impact workers?

Poverty now affects 57% of Argentina's population of 46 million, with food inflation reaching 56%.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

What happened to food after three months into Milei's presidency?

What happened to food after three months into Milei's presidency?

What happened to food after three months into Milei's presidency?

The worsening economic conditions have sparked protests, particularly among women's rights activists who have organized feminist strikes demanding solutions to Argentina's "food emergency.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

"

## Political Approach

### Libertarian Ideology

Milei governs as a self-described libertarian with a radical free-market orientation.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
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Content: Two events and an indication that took place last week suggest that there is a new rise of the extreme right in the world, from Europe and the United States to South America.
The three events are the electoral rise of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party, then the victory of the extremist Javier Milley in the presidency of Argentina, and the third indicator is the continued rise and lead of Donald Trump in the opinion polls.
The right-wing Freedom Party won 37 seats in the Dutch parliament, more than double its share, and will therefore have the upper hand in forming a government.
Geert Wilders, 60, founded his party in 2006 with the aim of defending Dutch, not European, culture and identity.
One of the party ’ s most important slogans is to fight against immigrants, especially Arabs, and it has called Moroccan immigrants “scum ” and organized competitions for cartoons offensive to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and vowed to ban the Koran, mosques and the hijab.
He pledged to stop the tsunami of asylum seekers, impose strict controls to “protect Dutch identity and values ” and deport Syrian migrants.
He is also skeptical of the European Union and considers Brussels and its excessive bureaucracy a threat to national sovereignty, calling for greater control over laws, borders and economic policies and pledging to hold a referendum on his country ’ s remaining in the bloc.
The Freedom Party says it is a great friend of the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel, and that relationship will be strengthened by moving the embassy to Jerusalem and closing the Dutch cultural center in Ramallah.
The second important event was the victory of Javier Milley as president of Argentina, whose basic policies are almost identical to those of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and other far-right forces and parties in the world.
He said his first foreign visit would be to the United States and he would meet with a number of Jewish rabbis there, because he follows their teachings.
The second visit will be to Israel, pledging to move his country ’ s embassy to occupied Jerusalem, and his foreign policy will focus on cooperation with the “American-Israeli axis ” and will not negotiate with leftist regimes such as Brazil and China.
The first to congratulate him was also the right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
Milley pledged to deal in the US dollar, abolish the central bank, abolish the health and education ministries, and privatize some major public companies.
But the irony is that the new president ’ s party, Freedom Advances, did not get any of the governors ’ posts, which are dominated by the Peronist movement, and he was also remarkable for saying that his country would not participate in the BRICS and did not intend to work with Russia, China and communist countries.
Millie also said he admired Trump and the latter said he would attend his inauguration.
The third indicator is that opinion polls indicate that Donald Trump is ahead of all potential challengers in the presidential election late next year.
A recent Harvard Center poll with The Hill found that Trump had 48 percent of respondents compared to 41 percent for current president Joe Biden, and even the uncertain 11 percent, when asked again, 53 percent said they would vote for Trump and 47 percent for Biden.
In November, a New York Times poll showed that Trump was five points ahead of Biden in Arizona, six in Georgia, five in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and four in Pennsylvania, while Biden was just two points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.
From the previous events and indicators, it can be concluded in principle that with the sharp polarization in international relations, the severe economic crisis resulting from the Coronavirus epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, recession and the Israeli attack on Gaza, the rise of far-right forces will continue in many countries of the world, especially Europe, especially the eastern side.
This means that in the next stage, the world will come to periods of intense polarization, conflicts and possibly wars.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

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Content: General Supervision
Elham Aboul Fath
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General Supervision
Elham Aboul Fath
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Thank you for your patience.
who doesn & apos; t like Fatima
The new president of Argentina.
Video & Photos
Argentina ’ s president, Javier Mille, 53, is on the news after announcing that his country ’ s economic situation would worsen before it improved and that “painful austerity ” was needed after he was sworn in by parliament, stressing that“ no government has inherited a legacy as bad. ”
With the wide international echo of the statements of the new Argentine president, who before assuming the presidency of Argentina as a liberal economist, appeared repeatedly on television programs and drew attention to his repeated criticism of the ruling establishment, which he accused of "banditry", pledging during political rallies to reduce public spending and the number of ministers, attention was turned to the search for aspects of his life, including his declared personality.
Fatima Flores, beloved of the Argentine president
Fatima Flores, the name of a woman who appears on media platforms hours after the inauguration of the Argentine president, Javier Mille, where she is rumored to be the lover of the new president of Argentina because of the presence of many pictures that combine them on several occasions.
In this report, we highlight the most important information about Fatima Florez:
Fatima Flores grew up in the town northwest of Buenos Aires, where the official residence of the presidents of Argentina is located.
Fatima Flores, 42, is the daughter of an architect and a history and geography teacher.
Fatima Flores has been a comedian known for her talents as a copycat and prominent presenter since the 2000s.
Fatima Flores
Fatima Florez has been in the spotlight for appearing several times with Argentina ’ s current president and economist, Javier Mille.
Fatima Flores ’ real name is Eugenia, but her producer and 22-year-old ex-husband, Norberto Marcos, suggested her pseudonym.
Fatima Flores and Javier Milley met in December 2022, on the sidelines of a TV show, but their relationship did not begin until a few months later, according to local media, two months before she separated from her then-husband.
Beloved President of Argentina
During the interview, Fatima joked to the politician: “You ’ re too lonely to do your important role, ” and in October, the couple returned to the chat program to confirm that they are dating, where Fatima explained:“ We started talking on Instagram and then we started seeing each other later. ”
In another part of the interview, Argentina ’ s new president said, “I ’ m so in love, ” then followed Fatima to explain how she officially separated from her husband on her birthday in February, likening it to the historic Battle of San Lorenzo in 1813.
After the interview, Fatima impersonated her new boyfriend in one of her shows, according to the Daily Mail.
Fatima Florez
The relationship was not revealed until last August, a week after the primaries aimed at nominating presidential candidates, raising questions in some media about the timing of the announcement.
For the first time just two weeks before the election, the couple appeared in public and then a few days ago and in the final stage before the vote, Fatima Flores was forced to deny the rumors of separation.
Last month, Javier shared footage of his girlfriend cheering him on one of his marches, commenting on the footage: “It ’ s the most beautiful flower! ”
I love you...
Long live freedom. ”
13- Last Sunday evening, Fatima appeared radiant alongside Javier Milley, greeting the public, will their relationship resist the fluctuations of power and media pressure?
Looking at the autobiography of the Argentinian president-elect.
In the past, Javier Mille has regularly presented himself as a follower of “free love, ” which is to have freedom for partners with other partners as well, and in an interview with Peruvian television channel America TV in 2020, he presented himself as a fan of triangular relations, Russia Today reported on Monday.
by Javier Milei
The 53-year-old president held his inauguration ceremony in Buenos Aires on Sunday, which was attended by nearly 30 world leaders and representatives, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Hungarian President Viktor Orban.
Shortly after the all-day event, he was seen attending a performance of Madame Butterfly ’ s play at Teatro Colón, an opera theater often considered among the best in the world and located less than 10 minutes from Miley ’ s new residence, Casa Rosada.
The former professor and economist warned that he would offer a "shock cure" to the economy and committed to a programme of tough austerity measures in a bid to calm inflation, which hit 143% in October, the Daily Mail reported on Monday.
Moreover, Argentina ’ s currency, the peso, is in a long-term free-fall, with poverty levels rising to 40% and the economy in a deep recession, IMF data revealed.

His political approach represents a sharp break from Argentina's traditional political establishment, which has historically alternated between Peronist and more centrist policies.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

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His libertarian philosophy emphasizes minimal state intervention in the economy, individual liberties, and free-market solutions to social and economic problems.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

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In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

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Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

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### Unconventional Leadership Style

Milei has distinguished himself through an unconventional and often provocative leadership style.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

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Initially viewed by investors as potentially "an eccentric quack," his approach has been characterized by what some observers described as "circus antics of campaigning.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

" However, since taking office, investors appear to be "betting that Milei is the real deal," suggesting growing confidence in his economic vision despite his unconventional methods.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

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Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

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His communication style includes inflammatory rhetoric, as demonstrated in his diplomatic conflicts with Spain, where he made personal attacks on Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, calling him an "arrogant socialist" with an "inferiority complex" and suggesting he seek psychological counseling.

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Argentina ’ s President Reacts to Spain ’ s ‘ Permanent ’ Recall of Ambassador
2024 / 5 / 22 11: 15
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Argentine President Javier Milei continued to speak out against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez today, as the Spanish government announced a "permanent" recall of its ambassador and diplomatic relations between the two countries deteriorated.
According to Agence France-Presse and Reuters, Mireille called Sanchez an "arrogant socialist" with an "inferiority complex" and advised him to seek counseling.
Spain recalled its ambassador to Buenos Aires last weekend after Mireille said he had a "corrupt wife" during a recent visit to Madrid.
Spain ’ s Prime Minister ’ s wife, Begona Gomez, was under court investigation for alleged privatisation and business corruption by rights groups, but the Madrid prosecutor ’ s office asked for the case to be dropped, citing a lack of evidence.
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said the recalled ambassador was "ultimately determined to stay in Madrid."
Argentina no longer has an ambassador to Spain. ”
"It is unprecedented for a head of state to come to another capital to insult its system and openly interfere in internal affairs," Albares said at a press conference.
"We have no interest or desire to worsen the situation, but the Spanish government has an obligation to defend the dignity and sovereignty of the system, especially when violations occur in the Spanish capital," he added.
Albares said the Spanish embassy in Argentina would be run by the chargé d'affaires, adding that ideological differences could be discussed, but "there are things that don't."
Mireille responded, calling Spain's actions "absurd and typical of arrogant socialists".
Mirei went on to provoke Sanchez on social media platform X, saying he would return to Madrid on June 21 to receive an award from a liberal institution.
“Let ’ s see how deep totalitarianism is in his blood … Let ’ s see if his deep inferiority complex allows the Spanish liberals to award me a prize, ” Mireille wrote.
Mirai ’ s spokesman, Manuel Adorni, later said Argentina would not recall its ambassador to Spain “under any circumstances. ”
"Our brotherhood has nothing to do with this... We have never had the absurd idea of recalling an ambassador from a friendly country like Spain," Adoni said.
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## Institutional Reforms

### Government Restructuring

Milei has pursued significant institutional reforms aimed at reducing the size and scope of government.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

His administration has eliminated approximately ten ministries, representing a substantial downsizing of Argentina's federal government.

This restructuring reflects his libertarian philosophy of minimizing state intervention in economic and social affairs.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

What does Milei promote in terms of healthcare and education?

Individuals to pay for their own services

suspended 366 decrees to ease economic controls and reduce spending.

### Legislative Constraints

Despite his ambitious agenda, Milei faces significant institutional constraints, particularly limited legislative authority.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: Two events and an indication that took place last week suggest that there is a new rise of the extreme right in the world, from Europe and the United States to South America.
The three events are the electoral rise of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party, then the victory of the extremist Javier Milley in the presidency of Argentina, and the third indicator is the continued rise and lead of Donald Trump in the opinion polls.
The right-wing Freedom Party won 37 seats in the Dutch parliament, more than double its share, and will therefore have the upper hand in forming a government.
Geert Wilders, 60, founded his party in 2006 with the aim of defending Dutch, not European, culture and identity.
One of the party ’ s most important slogans is to fight against immigrants, especially Arabs, and it has called Moroccan immigrants “scum ” and organized competitions for cartoons offensive to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and vowed to ban the Koran, mosques and the hijab.
He pledged to stop the tsunami of asylum seekers, impose strict controls to “protect Dutch identity and values ” and deport Syrian migrants.
He is also skeptical of the European Union and considers Brussels and its excessive bureaucracy a threat to national sovereignty, calling for greater control over laws, borders and economic policies and pledging to hold a referendum on his country ’ s remaining in the bloc.
The Freedom Party says it is a great friend of the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel, and that relationship will be strengthened by moving the embassy to Jerusalem and closing the Dutch cultural center in Ramallah.
The second important event was the victory of Javier Milley as president of Argentina, whose basic policies are almost identical to those of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and other far-right forces and parties in the world.
He said his first foreign visit would be to the United States and he would meet with a number of Jewish rabbis there, because he follows their teachings.
The second visit will be to Israel, pledging to move his country ’ s embassy to occupied Jerusalem, and his foreign policy will focus on cooperation with the “American-Israeli axis ” and will not negotiate with leftist regimes such as Brazil and China.
The first to congratulate him was also the right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
Milley pledged to deal in the US dollar, abolish the central bank, abolish the health and education ministries, and privatize some major public companies.
But the irony is that the new president ’ s party, Freedom Advances, did not get any of the governors ’ posts, which are dominated by the Peronist movement, and he was also remarkable for saying that his country would not participate in the BRICS and did not intend to work with Russia, China and communist countries.
Millie also said he admired Trump and the latter said he would attend his inauguration.
The third indicator is that opinion polls indicate that Donald Trump is ahead of all potential challengers in the presidential election late next year.
A recent Harvard Center poll with The Hill found that Trump had 48 percent of respondents compared to 41 percent for current president Joe Biden, and even the uncertain 11 percent, when asked again, 53 percent said they would vote for Trump and 47 percent for Biden.
In November, a New York Times poll showed that Trump was five points ahead of Biden in Arizona, six in Georgia, five in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and four in Pennsylvania, while Biden was just two points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.
From the previous events and indicators, it can be concluded in principle that with the sharp polarization in international relations, the severe economic crisis resulting from the Coronavirus epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, recession and the Israeli attack on Gaza, the rise of far-right forces will continue in many countries of the world, especially Europe, especially the eastern side.
This means that in the next stage, the world will come to periods of intense polarization, conflicts and possibly wars.

Title:

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Your browser does not appear to support Traditional Chinese.
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Argentine President Javier Milei continued to speak out against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez today, as the Spanish government announced a "permanent" recall of its ambassador and diplomatic relations between the two countries deteriorated.
According to Agence France-Presse and Reuters, Mireille called Sanchez an "arrogant socialist" with an "inferiority complex" and advised him to seek counseling.
Spain recalled its ambassador to Buenos Aires last weekend after Mireille said he had a "corrupt wife" during a recent visit to Madrid.
Spain ’ s Prime Minister ’ s wife, Begona Gomez, was under court investigation for alleged privatisation and business corruption by rights groups, but the Madrid prosecutor ’ s office asked for the case to be dropped, citing a lack of evidence.
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said the recalled ambassador was "ultimately determined to stay in Madrid."
Argentina no longer has an ambassador to Spain. ”
"It is unprecedented for a head of state to come to another capital to insult its system and openly interfere in internal affairs," Albares said at a press conference.
"We have no interest or desire to worsen the situation, but the Spanish government has an obligation to defend the dignity and sovereignty of the system, especially when violations occur in the Spanish capital," he added.
Albares said the Spanish embassy in Argentina would be run by the chargé d'affaires, adding that ideological differences could be discussed, but "there are things that don't."
Mireille responded, calling Spain's actions "absurd and typical of arrogant socialists".
Mirei went on to provoke Sanchez on social media platform X, saying he would return to Madrid on June 21 to receive an award from a liberal institution.
“Let ’ s see how deep totalitarianism is in his blood … Let ’ s see if his deep inferiority complex allows the Spanish liberals to award me a prize, ” Mireille wrote.
Mirai ’ s spokesman, Manuel Adorni, later said Argentina would not recall its ambassador to Spain “under any circumstances. ”
"Our brotherhood has nothing to do with this... We have never had the absurd idea of recalling an ambassador from a friendly country like Spain," Adoni said.
Central News Agency "First-hand News" app
The text, pictures and audio and video of this website shall not be reproduced, broadcast or transmitted or used without authorization.
172.30.142.111

Title:

Content: Global News
World Today - Crazy rally in Argentine stock markets after Milly win
You are now following the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Millie from the news section of the world and now we leave you with full details
MOHAMMED, Abu Dhabi, Tuesday, November 21, 2023 07: 21 PM - The Argentine stock market jumped 20% at the opening on Tuesday, in the first reaction to the landslide victory of Argentina ’ s ultra-liberal president-elect Javier Mille.
The rise was contributed by the national oil company YPF, whose shares rose 34 percent after the president-elect announced he would privatize them as part of his reform package.
On Monday, Wall Street listed YPF shares rose 40 percent at the close.
Monday, the day after the election, was a public holiday in Argentina, delaying market reaction.
Milley, 53, an economist who describes himself as a “anarchist capitalist, ” said in his victory speech Sunday evening:“ Today begins the end of decadence ” and the “reconstruction of Argentina ” begins, warning that there will be“ no half-solutions ”.
Milley pledged to give up the peso in favor of the US dollar and shut down the central bank, which he accused of printing money too heavily to fund excessive government spending, in a bid to stem inflation.
Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (143 percent year-on-year) while the value of the peso continues to fall.
During his election campaign, he said he would get rid of about a dozen ministries, among other controversial proposals.
Argentina is currently holding its breath waiting for what he will do when he takes office on Dec. 10, especially as his legislative power is limited.
We hope that we have succeeded in conveying the full details of the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Mili..
In God ’ s care and protection.
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You may also read.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

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In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

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Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

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This limitation has forced his administration to pursue some reforms through executive decrees rather than legislative processes, potentially creating constitutional tensions.

## International Relations

### Shifting Approach to China

Milei's approach to international relations has evolved significantly since taking office.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
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Content: Two events and an indication that took place last week suggest that there is a new rise of the extreme right in the world, from Europe and the United States to South America.
The three events are the electoral rise of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party, then the victory of the extremist Javier Milley in the presidency of Argentina, and the third indicator is the continued rise and lead of Donald Trump in the opinion polls.
The right-wing Freedom Party won 37 seats in the Dutch parliament, more than double its share, and will therefore have the upper hand in forming a government.
Geert Wilders, 60, founded his party in 2006 with the aim of defending Dutch, not European, culture and identity.
One of the party ’ s most important slogans is to fight against immigrants, especially Arabs, and it has called Moroccan immigrants “scum ” and organized competitions for cartoons offensive to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and vowed to ban the Koran, mosques and the hijab.
He pledged to stop the tsunami of asylum seekers, impose strict controls to “protect Dutch identity and values ” and deport Syrian migrants.
He is also skeptical of the European Union and considers Brussels and its excessive bureaucracy a threat to national sovereignty, calling for greater control over laws, borders and economic policies and pledging to hold a referendum on his country ’ s remaining in the bloc.
The Freedom Party says it is a great friend of the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel, and that relationship will be strengthened by moving the embassy to Jerusalem and closing the Dutch cultural center in Ramallah.
The second important event was the victory of Javier Milley as president of Argentina, whose basic policies are almost identical to those of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and other far-right forces and parties in the world.
He said his first foreign visit would be to the United States and he would meet with a number of Jewish rabbis there, because he follows their teachings.
The second visit will be to Israel, pledging to move his country ’ s embassy to occupied Jerusalem, and his foreign policy will focus on cooperation with the “American-Israeli axis ” and will not negotiate with leftist regimes such as Brazil and China.
The first to congratulate him was also the right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
Milley pledged to deal in the US dollar, abolish the central bank, abolish the health and education ministries, and privatize some major public companies.
But the irony is that the new president ’ s party, Freedom Advances, did not get any of the governors ’ posts, which are dominated by the Peronist movement, and he was also remarkable for saying that his country would not participate in the BRICS and did not intend to work with Russia, China and communist countries.
Millie also said he admired Trump and the latter said he would attend his inauguration.
The third indicator is that opinion polls indicate that Donald Trump is ahead of all potential challengers in the presidential election late next year.
A recent Harvard Center poll with The Hill found that Trump had 48 percent of respondents compared to 41 percent for current president Joe Biden, and even the uncertain 11 percent, when asked again, 53 percent said they would vote for Trump and 47 percent for Biden.
In November, a New York Times poll showed that Trump was five points ahead of Biden in Arizona, six in Georgia, five in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and four in Pennsylvania, while Biden was just two points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.
From the previous events and indicators, it can be concluded in principle that with the sharp polarization in international relations, the severe economic crisis resulting from the Coronavirus epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, recession and the Israeli attack on Gaza, the rise of far-right forces will continue in many countries of the world, especially Europe, especially the eastern side.
This means that in the next stage, the world will come to periods of intense polarization, conflicts and possibly wars.

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Argentine President Javier Milei continued to speak out against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez today, as the Spanish government announced a "permanent" recall of its ambassador and diplomatic relations between the two countries deteriorated.
According to Agence France-Presse and Reuters, Mireille called Sanchez an "arrogant socialist" with an "inferiority complex" and advised him to seek counseling.
Spain recalled its ambassador to Buenos Aires last weekend after Mireille said he had a "corrupt wife" during a recent visit to Madrid.
Spain ’ s Prime Minister ’ s wife, Begona Gomez, was under court investigation for alleged privatisation and business corruption by rights groups, but the Madrid prosecutor ’ s office asked for the case to be dropped, citing a lack of evidence.
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said the recalled ambassador was "ultimately determined to stay in Madrid."
Argentina no longer has an ambassador to Spain. ”
"It is unprecedented for a head of state to come to another capital to insult its system and openly interfere in internal affairs," Albares said at a press conference.
"We have no interest or desire to worsen the situation, but the Spanish government has an obligation to defend the dignity and sovereignty of the system, especially when violations occur in the Spanish capital," he added.
Albares said the Spanish embassy in Argentina would be run by the chargé d'affaires, adding that ideological differences could be discussed, but "there are things that don't."
Mireille responded, calling Spain's actions "absurd and typical of arrogant socialists".
Mirei went on to provoke Sanchez on social media platform X, saying he would return to Madrid on June 21 to receive an award from a liberal institution.
“Let ’ s see how deep totalitarianism is in his blood … Let ’ s see if his deep inferiority complex allows the Spanish liberals to award me a prize, ” Mireille wrote.
Mirai ’ s spokesman, Manuel Adorni, later said Argentina would not recall its ambassador to Spain “under any circumstances. ”
"Our brotherhood has nothing to do with this... We have never had the absurd idea of recalling an ambassador from a friendly country like Spain," Adoni said.
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Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

Title:

Content: BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentine President Javier Milli has told BRICS leaders that Buenos Aires will not join the group in early 2024, in keeping with the ultra-liberal president ’ s campaign pledge, the presidency said Friday.
In a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and other BRICS members (Russia, India, China, South Africa), Milley said: “Argentina ’ s accession to the BRICS as a full member country from early January 2024 is not appropriate. ”
The president, who took office on December 10, said his government ’ s foreign policy “differs in many ways from that of the previous government. ”
Review of decisions
"In this context, some of the decisions taken by the previous government will be reviewed, including the establishment of a [...]
It ’ s about the country ’ s participation in BRICS. ”
The last BRICS summit, held in August in Johannesburg, saw invitations to six countries - Argentina, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates - to join the group from early January 2024.
During his campaign, Milley reiterated his refusal to join the BRICS and supported his desire to "support any agreements with the communists because they do not respect the fundamentals of free trade, freedom and democracy."
A spokesman for the Argentine presidency said the letters to the BRICS member states indicate that "we are making a change in foreign policy based on more in-depth analysis than the previous government."

During his campaign, he took a strong anti-China stance, stating he had "no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil for 'ideological' reasons" and even referring to China as "assassins.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
Monetary Space One Principle
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" However, since assuming the presidency, his tone has softened considerably.

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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
Monetary Space One Principle
The last one.
British Royal Navy to build pier in Gaza, plus 9.7 million pounds to aid Palestinians
The next one.
Ecuadorian police break into Mexican embassy, arrest man, condemn Latin American government
Extended reading
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In office, Milei has acknowledged that "if people want to do business with China, they can" and that trade relations between China and Argentina "haven't changed at all.

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Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

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They're the only ones in the San Francisco Bay Area that grow anemones for $140 a pound.
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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
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" His government has maintained the $18 billion currency swap agreement with China.

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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
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This pragmatic shift appears to recognize the economic reality that China has become an indispensable trading partner for Argentina, particularly as the country faces severe economic challenges.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Despite this softer rhetoric, cooperation projects with China, such as the Santa Cruz Hydroelectric Project, have been stalled, reflecting the ongoing tensions in the relationship.

Title:

Content: China, Argentina face new political reality
National Trend 17: 15 2024 / 02 / 23
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Progress of the Gisai Hydropower Station began to lag in 2021.
Photo taken during the Lunar New Year holidays. (Photo)
Since President Javier Milei took office in December last year, Argentina has repeatedly said that Argentina will stop cooperating with the Chinese government, and the Belt and Road hydropower project, which symbolizes the strategic partnership between China and Argentina, is facing suspension.
After winning the first round of voting, Milai said he did not want to "establish ties with communist countries", and after taking office, it was reported that his foreign minister, Diana Mondino, had met with Taiwan's representative in Argentina.
Among them, the “Guisai Hydropower Station ” project, located in Santa Cruz, Argentina ’ s second largest province, is the most eye-catching.
The world ’ s southernmost hydropower project, located on a glacier, is financed by a consortium of banks from the National Development Bank of China, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Bank of China.
To date, $1.85 billion of the $4.71 billion in total loans have been delivered to Argentina.
However, as early as 2021, the progress of the construction of the hydropower plant was not as expected, and the financing of the Chinese side was shelved.
Since December last year, the project has been in a state of shutdown, and there is no timetable for when it will reopen.
Millet ’ s comments during the campaign, as well as his withdrawal from the former government ’ s application to join the BRICS, further exacerbated tensions between the two countries.
Gustavo Cardozo, a resident researcher at Observa Da China de Brasil, said Argentina ’ s Ministry of Economy and Energy was reviewing the dam project contract, and that if Argentina could not continue the project under the contract, it would have to repay the funds it had already paid and even face the consequences of compensating China ’ s losses.
“Millet is in line with the United States, but it is also clear that China has irreplaceable advantages in financing and economics in Argentina, ” David Feliba, a South American international relations expert in Argentina, explained. In the face of Argentina ’ s disastrous economy, it is impossible to unilaterally cancel the dam project.
Critical Timing Blinken Visits Water Temperature
At a time of deep reform and economic crisis in Argentina, US Secretary of State Colin Blinken visited Argentina and met with Millet. “Blinken ’ s visit is highly important, and the US support for the IMF ’ s bailout and debt restructuring is linked to the Millet government ’ s public support for US and Israeli foreign policy, ” Justa said.
Argentina has listed Hamas as a terrorist organization, in line with the United States.
This will not only help the United States to help Argentina secure financing and international funding, but will also change the geopolitical landscape. ”
Ricardo Valencia, an assistant professor of international relations at Cal State Fullerton, believes that Millet will be very pragmatic about China, but he will not hide his priorities for the United States.
As for whether China will stop investment in Argentina in the future because of Mile ’ s ideological stance, he believes that this will not happen, but the future of financing, including hydropower plants, must be carefully observed.
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### Realignment with Western Powers

Milei has pursued a clear realignment toward Western powers, particularly the United States and Israel.

Title:

Content: Two events and an indication that took place last week suggest that there is a new rise of the extreme right in the world, from Europe and the United States to South America.
The three events are the electoral rise of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party, then the victory of the extremist Javier Milley in the presidency of Argentina, and the third indicator is the continued rise and lead of Donald Trump in the opinion polls.
The right-wing Freedom Party won 37 seats in the Dutch parliament, more than double its share, and will therefore have the upper hand in forming a government.
Geert Wilders, 60, founded his party in 2006 with the aim of defending Dutch, not European, culture and identity.
One of the party ’ s most important slogans is to fight against immigrants, especially Arabs, and it has called Moroccan immigrants “scum ” and organized competitions for cartoons offensive to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and vowed to ban the Koran, mosques and the hijab.
He pledged to stop the tsunami of asylum seekers, impose strict controls to “protect Dutch identity and values ” and deport Syrian migrants.
He is also skeptical of the European Union and considers Brussels and its excessive bureaucracy a threat to national sovereignty, calling for greater control over laws, borders and economic policies and pledging to hold a referendum on his country ’ s remaining in the bloc.
The Freedom Party says it is a great friend of the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel, and that relationship will be strengthened by moving the embassy to Jerusalem and closing the Dutch cultural center in Ramallah.
The second important event was the victory of Javier Milley as president of Argentina, whose basic policies are almost identical to those of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and other far-right forces and parties in the world.
He said his first foreign visit would be to the United States and he would meet with a number of Jewish rabbis there, because he follows their teachings.
The second visit will be to Israel, pledging to move his country ’ s embassy to occupied Jerusalem, and his foreign policy will focus on cooperation with the “American-Israeli axis ” and will not negotiate with leftist regimes such as Brazil and China.
The first to congratulate him was also the right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
Milley pledged to deal in the US dollar, abolish the central bank, abolish the health and education ministries, and privatize some major public companies.
But the irony is that the new president ’ s party, Freedom Advances, did not get any of the governors ’ posts, which are dominated by the Peronist movement, and he was also remarkable for saying that his country would not participate in the BRICS and did not intend to work with Russia, China and communist countries.
Millie also said he admired Trump and the latter said he would attend his inauguration.
The third indicator is that opinion polls indicate that Donald Trump is ahead of all potential challengers in the presidential election late next year.
A recent Harvard Center poll with The Hill found that Trump had 48 percent of respondents compared to 41 percent for current president Joe Biden, and even the uncertain 11 percent, when asked again, 53 percent said they would vote for Trump and 47 percent for Biden.
In November, a New York Times poll showed that Trump was five points ahead of Biden in Arizona, six in Georgia, five in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and four in Pennsylvania, while Biden was just two points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.
From the previous events and indicators, it can be concluded in principle that with the sharp polarization in international relations, the severe economic crisis resulting from the Coronavirus epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, recession and the Israeli attack on Gaza, the rise of far-right forces will continue in many countries of the world, especially Europe, especially the eastern side.
This means that in the next stage, the world will come to periods of intense polarization, conflicts and possibly wars.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

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What are some of the "liberal democracies" that the Milei administration prioritizes partnerships?

What are some of the "liberal democracies" that the Milei administration prioritizes partnerships?

He has stated that his foreign policy would focus on cooperation with the "American-Israeli axis," with plans to move Argentina's embassy to Jerusalem and make his first foreign visits to the US and Israel.

Title:

Content: Two events and an indication that took place last week suggest that there is a new rise of the extreme right in the world, from Europe and the United States to South America.
The three events are the electoral rise of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party, then the victory of the extremist Javier Milley in the presidency of Argentina, and the third indicator is the continued rise and lead of Donald Trump in the opinion polls.
The right-wing Freedom Party won 37 seats in the Dutch parliament, more than double its share, and will therefore have the upper hand in forming a government.
Geert Wilders, 60, founded his party in 2006 with the aim of defending Dutch, not European, culture and identity.
One of the party ’ s most important slogans is to fight against immigrants, especially Arabs, and it has called Moroccan immigrants “scum ” and organized competitions for cartoons offensive to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and vowed to ban the Koran, mosques and the hijab.
He pledged to stop the tsunami of asylum seekers, impose strict controls to “protect Dutch identity and values ” and deport Syrian migrants.
He is also skeptical of the European Union and considers Brussels and its excessive bureaucracy a threat to national sovereignty, calling for greater control over laws, borders and economic policies and pledging to hold a referendum on his country ’ s remaining in the bloc.
The Freedom Party says it is a great friend of the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel, and that relationship will be strengthened by moving the embassy to Jerusalem and closing the Dutch cultural center in Ramallah.
The second important event was the victory of Javier Milley as president of Argentina, whose basic policies are almost identical to those of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and other far-right forces and parties in the world.
He said his first foreign visit would be to the United States and he would meet with a number of Jewish rabbis there, because he follows their teachings.
The second visit will be to Israel, pledging to move his country ’ s embassy to occupied Jerusalem, and his foreign policy will focus on cooperation with the “American-Israeli axis ” and will not negotiate with leftist regimes such as Brazil and China.
The first to congratulate him was also the right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
Milley pledged to deal in the US dollar, abolish the central bank, abolish the health and education ministries, and privatize some major public companies.
But the irony is that the new president ’ s party, Freedom Advances, did not get any of the governors ’ posts, which are dominated by the Peronist movement, and he was also remarkable for saying that his country would not participate in the BRICS and did not intend to work with Russia, China and communist countries.
Millie also said he admired Trump and the latter said he would attend his inauguration.
The third indicator is that opinion polls indicate that Donald Trump is ahead of all potential challengers in the presidential election late next year.
A recent Harvard Center poll with The Hill found that Trump had 48 percent of respondents compared to 41 percent for current president Joe Biden, and even the uncertain 11 percent, when asked again, 53 percent said they would vote for Trump and 47 percent for Biden.
In November, a New York Times poll showed that Trump was five points ahead of Biden in Arizona, six in Georgia, five in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and four in Pennsylvania, while Biden was just two points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.
From the previous events and indicators, it can be concluded in principle that with the sharp polarization in international relations, the severe economic crisis resulting from the Coronavirus epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, recession and the Israeli attack on Gaza, the rise of far-right forces will continue in many countries of the world, especially Europe, especially the eastern side.
This means that in the next stage, the world will come to periods of intense polarization, conflicts and possibly wars.

What are some of the "liberal democracies" that the Milei administration prioritizes partnerships?

His government has also withdrawn Argentina's application to join the BRICS bloc, reversing the previous government's position.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

Title:

Content: BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentine President Javier Milli has told BRICS leaders that Buenos Aires will not join the group in early 2024, in keeping with the ultra-liberal president ’ s campaign pledge, the presidency said Friday.
In a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and other BRICS members (Russia, India, China, South Africa), Milley said: “Argentina ’ s accession to the BRICS as a full member country from early January 2024 is not appropriate. ”
The president, who took office on December 10, said his government ’ s foreign policy “differs in many ways from that of the previous government. ”
Review of decisions
"In this context, some of the decisions taken by the previous government will be reviewed, including the establishment of a [...]
It ’ s about the country ’ s participation in BRICS. ”
The last BRICS summit, held in August in Johannesburg, saw invitations to six countries - Argentina, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates - to join the group from early January 2024.
During his campaign, Milley reiterated his refusal to join the BRICS and supported his desire to "support any agreements with the communists because they do not respect the fundamentals of free trade, freedom and democracy."
A spokesman for the Argentine presidency said the letters to the BRICS member states indicate that "we are making a change in foreign policy based on more in-depth analysis than the previous government."

This decision reflects his ideological alignment with Western powers and his skepticism of emerging economies that challenge the traditional global order.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

### Diplomatic Conflicts

Milei's provocative diplomatic style has led to conflicts with traditional partners.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

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Argentina ’ s President Reacts to Spain ’ s ‘ Permanent ’ Recall of Ambassador
2024 / 5 / 22 11: 15
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Argentine President Javier Milei continued to speak out against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez today, as the Spanish government announced a "permanent" recall of its ambassador and diplomatic relations between the two countries deteriorated.
According to Agence France-Presse and Reuters, Mireille called Sanchez an "arrogant socialist" with an "inferiority complex" and advised him to seek counseling.
Spain recalled its ambassador to Buenos Aires last weekend after Mireille said he had a "corrupt wife" during a recent visit to Madrid.
Spain ’ s Prime Minister ’ s wife, Begona Gomez, was under court investigation for alleged privatisation and business corruption by rights groups, but the Madrid prosecutor ’ s office asked for the case to be dropped, citing a lack of evidence.
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said the recalled ambassador was "ultimately determined to stay in Madrid."
Argentina no longer has an ambassador to Spain. ”
"It is unprecedented for a head of state to come to another capital to insult its system and openly interfere in internal affairs," Albares said at a press conference.
"We have no interest or desire to worsen the situation, but the Spanish government has an obligation to defend the dignity and sovereignty of the system, especially when violations occur in the Spanish capital," he added.
Albares said the Spanish embassy in Argentina would be run by the chargé d'affaires, adding that ideological differences could be discussed, but "there are things that don't."
Mireille responded, calling Spain's actions "absurd and typical of arrogant socialists".
Mirei went on to provoke Sanchez on social media platform X, saying he would return to Madrid on June 21 to receive an award from a liberal institution.
“Let ’ s see how deep totalitarianism is in his blood … Let ’ s see if his deep inferiority complex allows the Spanish liberals to award me a prize, ” Mireille wrote.
Mirai ’ s spokesman, Manuel Adorni, later said Argentina would not recall its ambassador to Spain “under any circumstances. ”
"Our brotherhood has nothing to do with this... We have never had the absurd idea of recalling an ambassador from a friendly country like Spain," Adoni said.
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172.30.142.111

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

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In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

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Most notably, his inflammatory comments about Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife led Spain to "permanently" recall its ambassador from Argentina, representing a significant deterioration in bilateral relations.

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Your browser does not appear to support Traditional Chinese.
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Argentina ’ s President Reacts to Spain ’ s ‘ Permanent ’ Recall of Ambassador
2024 / 5 / 22 11: 15
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Argentine President Javier Milei continued to speak out against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez today, as the Spanish government announced a "permanent" recall of its ambassador and diplomatic relations between the two countries deteriorated.
According to Agence France-Presse and Reuters, Mireille called Sanchez an "arrogant socialist" with an "inferiority complex" and advised him to seek counseling.
Spain recalled its ambassador to Buenos Aires last weekend after Mireille said he had a "corrupt wife" during a recent visit to Madrid.
Spain ’ s Prime Minister ’ s wife, Begona Gomez, was under court investigation for alleged privatisation and business corruption by rights groups, but the Madrid prosecutor ’ s office asked for the case to be dropped, citing a lack of evidence.
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said the recalled ambassador was "ultimately determined to stay in Madrid."
Argentina no longer has an ambassador to Spain. ”
"It is unprecedented for a head of state to come to another capital to insult its system and openly interfere in internal affairs," Albares said at a press conference.
"We have no interest or desire to worsen the situation, but the Spanish government has an obligation to defend the dignity and sovereignty of the system, especially when violations occur in the Spanish capital," he added.
Albares said the Spanish embassy in Argentina would be run by the chargé d'affaires, adding that ideological differences could be discussed, but "there are things that don't."
Mireille responded, calling Spain's actions "absurd and typical of arrogant socialists".
Mirei went on to provoke Sanchez on social media platform X, saying he would return to Madrid on June 21 to receive an award from a liberal institution.
“Let ’ s see how deep totalitarianism is in his blood … Let ’ s see if his deep inferiority complex allows the Spanish liberals to award me a prize, ” Mireille wrote.
Mirai ’ s spokesman, Manuel Adorni, later said Argentina would not recall its ambassador to Spain “under any circumstances. ”
"Our brotherhood has nothing to do with this... We have never had the absurd idea of recalling an ambassador from a friendly country like Spain," Adoni said.
Central News Agency "First-hand News" app
The text, pictures and audio and video of this website shall not be reproduced, broadcast or transmitted or used without authorization.
172.30.142.111

## Impact and Implications

### Economic Consequences

Milei's economic policies have produced mixed results.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
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Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

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Content:     • Live
    • Audio Only
News > Argentina

Memory, Truth And Justice Day: Argentina 48 Years After Videla

Published 24 March 2024 (2 hours 13 minutes ago)
Opinion

''The Argentine democracy has an enormous debt: to restore the identity of some 300 people''.

Today, March 24, Argentina commemorates the installation of the military dictatorship of Jorge Rafael Videla, 48 years ago. In the framework of the arrival at Casa Rosada of an ultra-right government, social movements, political groups and students mobilized towards squares throughout the country.

RELATED:

Argentina: Javier Milei Will Close Télam News Agency

The day is known as the Day of Memory, Truth and Justice, and the largest concentration was in Plaza de Mayo, in one of the most massive marches of the 40 years since the restoration of democracy.

Mobilizations around all the country are marked by an special context now when the Javier Milei's government denies the Videla's dictatorship and all crimes committed by the military ruling after a military coup in March 24, 1976 and lasted until 10 December 1983.

In the event that took the Plaza de Mayo and streets surrounding the Casa Rosada, participated 'Las Abuelas y Madres de Plaza de Mayo', along with the human rights organization H.I.J.O.S, Alex Kicillof, governor of the Province of Buenos Aires, an activist, professor, Argentine sculptor and painter, Nobel Peace Prize winner Adolfo Pérez Esquivel.

Also, during the act of remembrance took place the reading of a document repudiating the negationism and totalitarian practices of the government of Milei and Patricia Villarruel: ''Forty-eight years after the genocidal coup, we met again in the Plaza de Mayo. We arrived here, as always, to shout loudly: THERE ARE 30,000! THEY ARE PRESENT! IT WAS GENOCIDE! AND THIS PEOPLE SAID NEVER AGAIN!''

''The Argentine democracy has an enormous debt: to restore the identity of some 300 people, the majority born in the clandestine maternity hospitals of the dictatorship, who today are adults between 41 and 49 years old,'' reads the document.

The document criticises the macro-economic and liberal adjustments of the economy imposed by the government of Javier Milei: 'It is the re-edition of the planned misery of Martínez de Hoz.'' José Alfredo Martínez de Hoz was the Minister of Economy of the military dictatorship, measures similar to those of Milei which proved disastrous.

The protesters claimed that ''Never More Planned Misery! Never More Hatred, Never More Political Violence!'' and recalled that ''A government that is not at the service of the people, is against the people''.

On the other hand, the Nobel Prize winner Adolfo Pérez Esquivel highlighted that "We reject the denial and apology of State terrorism" and demanded "the continuity of the policies of Memory, Truth and Justice promoted by the Secretariat of Human Rights and the preservation of Sites and Spaces of Memory'.

"We remind this government that it must bear in mind that with hatred, repression and revenge, a more just and fraternal society cannot be built,' added the Nobel.

While investors initially uncertain about his presidency now appear more confident in his economic vision, the short-term social consequences have been severe.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

Title:

Content: Is there a way out for Argentine politics to turn left and right again?
Author: Zhou Xuan
Published: Updated:
Argentine politics is like a pendulum, swinging violently from left to right, and the frequency is accelerating.
Two years ago, Alberto Fernández, a leftist, defeated a neoliberal to win the presidency, chanting “We ’ re back, ” but he suffered a setback in the parliamentary election, making the Peronists lose their Senate majority for the first time in nearly four decades and the ruling party a lame duck in legislation. But the resulting potential policy wobbles have further deepened the predicament.
Can Argentina find a way out of its crippling foreign debt and inflation crisis?
Since Argentina left the military government in 1983, it has experienced 20 years of neoliberalism (mostly right-wing conservative and right-wing Belonism), followed by 12 years of leftist Belonism, four years of right-wing rule, followed by the election of Fernández two years ago.
But he was only halfway through his term, and the right wing quickly shot back.
According to the results of the mid-term parliamentary election on November 14, the ruling coalition lagged behind the right-wing coalition by 8 percentage points in the House of Representatives election, and 11 fewer than the other party in the half of the elected seats.
The outcome of the Senate election was even more decisive. The overall vote of the Belonists lagged by nearly 20 percentage points, the first time they had lost a majority in the Senate since the return to democracy in 1983.
Inferno and Epidemic
These results are not surprising.
Fernández inherited a rotten mess from his predecessor, Mauricio Macri: annual inflation of more than 40%, a raging exchange rate (80% devaluation of the peso over four years), and a new $44 billion in foreign debt to the International Monetary Fund (due in 2022 and 2023).
Such a bad start, coupled with natural disasters such as the COVID-19 pandemic, has devastated global markets, and Argentina, whose lives depend on commodity exports, has taken the brunt of the financial crisis further, becoming the first country in the epidemic to default on its debt in April 2020, its ninth default.
Subsequent developments follow the Beronists ’ inertia, with their emphasis on government intervention and welfare initiatives that run counter to the IMF ’ s principles of free and open markets and fiscal austerity, and their national sentiments often see agreeing to IMF conditions as yielding to foreign powers.
Argentina ’ s $44 billion debt with the IMF has yet to be negotiated despite a successful $66 billion debt restructuring with private bondholders last year. This stalemate not only cuts off the country ’ s access to more loans during the pandemic, but also threatens another sovereign default on its first major repayment day in March.
Argentines took to the streets in September to protest against Fernandez ’ s government. (Reuters)
At the same time, Fernández also had to fulfill the Beronists ’ welfare obligations to the working masses, and foreign debt was not enough to print money, but this was no different from quenching his thirst, and the annual inflation rate rose further to more than 50%.
And the welfare measures of a cup of water can not withstand the longest blockade he has imposed in Latin America, 4 million people have returned to poverty in the past two years, and the number of new coronavirus victims has reached 110,000. Adjusted by population size and close to the neighboring country of Brazil, which has caused public anger. And punishing the ruling party with votes.
Sadly, despite the public ’ s anger, the fate of the lame duck in Congress will only make it more difficult for the ruling party to move forward and lead Argentina out of its predicament.
At the same time, it also raises the possibility that the right will return to the Rose Palace after two years, bringing about a new round of policy changes, but in the light of history, such a rapid swing will often only further deepen the predicament.
Argentina, which has mandatory voting rules, will struggle to cast a bright future no matter how it votes.
Difficult to solve on both sides of the road.
At the end of the day, the dilemma facing Argentina is not a simple left or right line can solve, the country's vulnerability is like a porcelain man walking a wire rope, accidentally will fall to pieces, and the left and right line leaders every open policy turn, so that the wire shakes even more.
At the same time, the international environment may blow a headwind at any time, and no matter what route the porcelain people can not avoid the fate of being blown down.
From the perspective of the domestic economic structure, the most prominent problem in Argentina is the excessive dependence on agricultural exports, which accounted for 57% of the value of total export goods in 2019.
This is the product of the country ’ s centuries-old dependence on the Pampas steppe, a land of agro-pasture, and the failed “import substitution industry ” of the last century. Although Argentina was clearly aware of the need to develop industry, Juan Perón, who ruled in the 1940s and 1950s, drew up his first five-year plan focused on industry, his sweeping nationalization plan, universal trade unions, welfare populist policies and opposition. Foreign capital inflows stifled market dynamism.
The ensuing three decades of military rule and bloody repression of the Beronists also saw the country miss a golden period of development.
When the literati returned to power in the 1980s, the priorities for restructuring the economy gave way to two major debt crises – the first due to the military government ’ s excessive borrowing of petrodollars in the 1970s, and the second due to the collapse of the 1979 oil crisis, the second due to the right-wing Bayonne government ’ s excessive borrowing from the IMF in the late 1990s, and the Asian financial crisis.
However, in the context of China's rise as the world's factory, Argentina's development of industry at this time has no comparative advantage and lack of foreign investors, and can only be tied to the position of an agricultural power.
At the same time, the specter of Belonism continues to haunt the land and gain a supreme aura as a result of the military government ’ s repression.
Since then, the ruling Beronists have also made it easy to use welfare populism to attract votes, but this has often resulted in excessive financial burdens and short-sighted characteristics of “giving people fish ”, such as Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner ’ s government, which held power from 2007 to 2015, whose direct cash transfers to the poor reduced extreme poverty by 30%, but inflated currency. Inflation has engulfed the broad middle class, and its successors have since planted the root of high public spending, leaving them with little fiscal space to reform.
For the Argentines, the core of Peronism is actually the passion for the poor, and today ’ s Peronism has mostly left the spirit of welfare populism, as shown in the exhibition of the 100th anniversary of the birth of Mrs. Peronism at the Argentine Museum in 2019. (AP)
In the absence of the ability to adjust the economic structure and the wind of welfare populism to limit the space for fiscal policy, the country is like a boat in the international environment, and it is difficult to withstand the headwinds that are blowing at any time.
Both the 2008 financial crisis, the end of the commodities boom in 2014, the 2018 US-China trade war, and the 2020 epidemic have had a huge impact on the country, triggering a sharp decline in current project revenue and fiscal revenue.
In these circumstances, it is difficult for any government to resist the shortcut of printing money to make up for the fiscal hole, triggering a devaluation of the currency to boost its export advantage, but also drowning in inflation caused by the high import of industrial and consumer goods.
Worse still, in each of these downturns, the sword of Damocles is shaken by the huge extra debt, which is exacerbated by the fact that keen investors are withdrawing their capital when the situation is not good.
To this end, left-wing governments usually adopt capital controls, but such a restrictive environment has deterred investors from the beginning, and right-wing governments, while opening up markets, are more vulnerable in headwinds.
For example, although the Macri government traded the principle of free and open access to the IMF in exchange for historic high aid, it was intended to give Argentina a strong shot in the economy, but in 2018 due to the great environmental headwinds of the Sino-US trade war, and the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates and sucked US dollar capital back to the United States, which caused international investors to withdraw, causing the peso to devalue. This fragmentation only deepened the heavy debt burden.
From this, it can be seen that simple left and right lines are difficult to solve Argentina ’ s plight, and the fierce left-right line conversion will only make investors and the public more uncertain, tend to short-term speculation, and politicians often only take advantage of the short-term period of power to make a big profit, or short-sighted welfare policies to attract people.
Only by the rational policy design of depoliticization, the long-term stability of the domestic political atmosphere, and the blessing of the beneficial international market, can Argentina have a chance to gain a piece of life and jump out of the continuous cycle of crisis.
But how easy is it to talk about?

Poverty rates have increased, with 57% of the population now affected, and food insecurity has worsened significantly.

The long-term success of his dollarization plan remains uncertain.

Critics argue that it would deplete Argentina's central bank's US dollar reserves, making the transition excessively costly and potentially resulting in hyperinflation.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: Global News
World Today - Crazy rally in Argentine stock markets after Milly win
You are now following the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Millie from the news section of the world and now we leave you with full details
MOHAMMED, Abu Dhabi, Tuesday, November 21, 2023 07: 21 PM - The Argentine stock market jumped 20% at the opening on Tuesday, in the first reaction to the landslide victory of Argentina ’ s ultra-liberal president-elect Javier Mille.
The rise was contributed by the national oil company YPF, whose shares rose 34 percent after the president-elect announced he would privatize them as part of his reform package.
On Monday, Wall Street listed YPF shares rose 40 percent at the close.
Monday, the day after the election, was a public holiday in Argentina, delaying market reaction.
Milley, 53, an economist who describes himself as a “anarchist capitalist, ” said in his victory speech Sunday evening:“ Today begins the end of decadence ” and the “reconstruction of Argentina ” begins, warning that there will be“ no half-solutions ”.
Milley pledged to give up the peso in favor of the US dollar and shut down the central bank, which he accused of printing money too heavily to fund excessive government spending, in a bid to stem inflation.
Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (143 percent year-on-year) while the value of the peso continues to fall.
During his election campaign, he said he would get rid of about a dozen ministries, among other controversial proposals.
Argentina is currently holding its breath waiting for what he will do when he takes office on Dec. 10, especially as his legislative power is limited.
We hope that we have succeeded in conveying the full details of the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Mili..
In God ’ s care and protection.
Advertisements
You may also read.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

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However, supporters counter that Argentina's inflation crisis predates Milei's proposal and is the result of years of poor monetary policies.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: Global News
World Today - Crazy rally in Argentine stock markets after Milly win
You are now following the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Millie from the news section of the world and now we leave you with full details
MOHAMMED, Abu Dhabi, Tuesday, November 21, 2023 07: 21 PM - The Argentine stock market jumped 20% at the opening on Tuesday, in the first reaction to the landslide victory of Argentina ’ s ultra-liberal president-elect Javier Mille.
The rise was contributed by the national oil company YPF, whose shares rose 34 percent after the president-elect announced he would privatize them as part of his reform package.
On Monday, Wall Street listed YPF shares rose 40 percent at the close.
Monday, the day after the election, was a public holiday in Argentina, delaying market reaction.
Milley, 53, an economist who describes himself as a “anarchist capitalist, ” said in his victory speech Sunday evening:“ Today begins the end of decadence ” and the “reconstruction of Argentina ” begins, warning that there will be“ no half-solutions ”.
Milley pledged to give up the peso in favor of the US dollar and shut down the central bank, which he accused of printing money too heavily to fund excessive government spending, in a bid to stem inflation.
Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (143 percent year-on-year) while the value of the peso continues to fall.
During his election campaign, he said he would get rid of about a dozen ministries, among other controversial proposals.
Argentina is currently holding its breath waiting for what he will do when he takes office on Dec. 10, especially as his legislative power is limited.
We hope that we have succeeded in conveying the full details of the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Mili..
In God ’ s care and protection.
Advertisements
You may also read.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

### Social Impact

The austerity measures implemented by Milei's government have had significant social consequences.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

Title:

Content:     • Live
    • Audio Only
News > Argentina

Memory, Truth And Justice Day: Argentina 48 Years After Videla

Published 24 March 2024 (2 hours 13 minutes ago)
Opinion

''The Argentine democracy has an enormous debt: to restore the identity of some 300 people''.

Today, March 24, Argentina commemorates the installation of the military dictatorship of Jorge Rafael Videla, 48 years ago. In the framework of the arrival at Casa Rosada of an ultra-right government, social movements, political groups and students mobilized towards squares throughout the country.

RELATED:

Argentina: Javier Milei Will Close Télam News Agency

The day is known as the Day of Memory, Truth and Justice, and the largest concentration was in Plaza de Mayo, in one of the most massive marches of the 40 years since the restoration of democracy.

Mobilizations around all the country are marked by an special context now when the Javier Milei's government denies the Videla's dictatorship and all crimes committed by the military ruling after a military coup in March 24, 1976 and lasted until 10 December 1983.

In the event that took the Plaza de Mayo and streets surrounding the Casa Rosada, participated 'Las Abuelas y Madres de Plaza de Mayo', along with the human rights organization H.I.J.O.S, Alex Kicillof, governor of the Province of Buenos Aires, an activist, professor, Argentine sculptor and painter, Nobel Peace Prize winner Adolfo Pérez Esquivel.

Also, during the act of remembrance took place the reading of a document repudiating the negationism and totalitarian practices of the government of Milei and Patricia Villarruel: ''Forty-eight years after the genocidal coup, we met again in the Plaza de Mayo. We arrived here, as always, to shout loudly: THERE ARE 30,000! THEY ARE PRESENT! IT WAS GENOCIDE! AND THIS PEOPLE SAID NEVER AGAIN!''

''The Argentine democracy has an enormous debt: to restore the identity of some 300 people, the majority born in the clandestine maternity hospitals of the dictatorship, who today are adults between 41 and 49 years old,'' reads the document.

The document criticises the macro-economic and liberal adjustments of the economy imposed by the government of Javier Milei: 'It is the re-edition of the planned misery of Martínez de Hoz.'' José Alfredo Martínez de Hoz was the Minister of Economy of the military dictatorship, measures similar to those of Milei which proved disastrous.

The protesters claimed that ''Never More Planned Misery! Never More Hatred, Never More Political Violence!'' and recalled that ''A government that is not at the service of the people, is against the people''.

On the other hand, the Nobel Prize winner Adolfo Pérez Esquivel highlighted that "We reject the denial and apology of State terrorism" and demanded "the continuity of the policies of Memory, Truth and Justice promoted by the Secretariat of Human Rights and the preservation of Sites and Spaces of Memory'.

"We remind this government that it must bear in mind that with hatred, repression and revenge, a more just and fraternal society cannot be built,' added the Nobel.

How will Milei's reforms impact workers?

How will Milei's reforms impact workers?

How will Milei's reforms impact workers?

How will Milei's reforms impact workers?

How will Milei's reforms impact workers?

How will Milei's reforms impact workers?

Growing poverty and food insecurity have sparked widespread protests, particularly among women's rights activists who have organized strikes demanding solutions to Argentina's "food emergency.

"

### Institutional Transformation

Milei's presidency represents a fundamental challenge to Argentina's political and economic institutions.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

Title:

Content: Argentina reaches agreement with IMF on new $4.7 billion tranche
Money and Business
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Argentina ’ s Economy Minister Luis Caputo said his government had agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to continue the expanded lending mechanism and allocate a new tranche of $4.7 billion.
“We have reached an agreement with the IMF as part of the seventh review of the extended credit program.
This is not a new agreement, but a revived one that was not in force because of the failure to achieve the goals set for it. ”
The agreement is now due to be presented to the IMF ’ s board of governors, and after final approval, Argentina will be able to receive a $4.7 billion tranche.
The minister said the $4.7 billion tranche would be used to pay the outstanding payments.
According to the minister, his government did not try to reach a new agreement with the IMF because it would have taken much longer.
For his part, an IMF source pointed out that the said segment "aims to support the efforts of the new authorities to restore macroeconomic stability."
"Although the road to stability will be difficult and the situation will worsen before it improves, the first steps have been successful in avoiding a worsening of the crisis," the source said.
According to the IMF, the Argentine government plans to “achieve a primary surplus of 2% of GDP ” this year.
By November 2023, Argentina ’ s deficit was 1.7% of GDP.
At the end of January 2022, then-Argentine President Alberto Fernandez announced an agreement with the IMF to refinance $44 billion in debt.
In May 2018, Mauricio Macri, who in May 2018 was the head of state, asked the IMF for help and provision of this loan due to the sharp devaluation of the national currency.
Fernández ’ s government described the debt as criminal and disproportionate to the country ’ s capabilities.
On 10 December, Javier Miley took office as President of Argentina.
In his first speech as head of state, he described the situation in the country as critical and pointed to the need for shocking measures in the economy.
Source: TASS
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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
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Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: Two events and an indication that took place last week suggest that there is a new rise of the extreme right in the world, from Europe and the United States to South America.
The three events are the electoral rise of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party, then the victory of the extremist Javier Milley in the presidency of Argentina, and the third indicator is the continued rise and lead of Donald Trump in the opinion polls.
The right-wing Freedom Party won 37 seats in the Dutch parliament, more than double its share, and will therefore have the upper hand in forming a government.
Geert Wilders, 60, founded his party in 2006 with the aim of defending Dutch, not European, culture and identity.
One of the party ’ s most important slogans is to fight against immigrants, especially Arabs, and it has called Moroccan immigrants “scum ” and organized competitions for cartoons offensive to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and vowed to ban the Koran, mosques and the hijab.
He pledged to stop the tsunami of asylum seekers, impose strict controls to “protect Dutch identity and values ” and deport Syrian migrants.
He is also skeptical of the European Union and considers Brussels and its excessive bureaucracy a threat to national sovereignty, calling for greater control over laws, borders and economic policies and pledging to hold a referendum on his country ’ s remaining in the bloc.
The Freedom Party says it is a great friend of the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel, and that relationship will be strengthened by moving the embassy to Jerusalem and closing the Dutch cultural center in Ramallah.
The second important event was the victory of Javier Milley as president of Argentina, whose basic policies are almost identical to those of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and other far-right forces and parties in the world.
He said his first foreign visit would be to the United States and he would meet with a number of Jewish rabbis there, because he follows their teachings.
The second visit will be to Israel, pledging to move his country ’ s embassy to occupied Jerusalem, and his foreign policy will focus on cooperation with the “American-Israeli axis ” and will not negotiate with leftist regimes such as Brazil and China.
The first to congratulate him was also the right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
Milley pledged to deal in the US dollar, abolish the central bank, abolish the health and education ministries, and privatize some major public companies.
But the irony is that the new president ’ s party, Freedom Advances, did not get any of the governors ’ posts, which are dominated by the Peronist movement, and he was also remarkable for saying that his country would not participate in the BRICS and did not intend to work with Russia, China and communist countries.
Millie also said he admired Trump and the latter said he would attend his inauguration.
The third indicator is that opinion polls indicate that Donald Trump is ahead of all potential challengers in the presidential election late next year.
A recent Harvard Center poll with The Hill found that Trump had 48 percent of respondents compared to 41 percent for current president Joe Biden, and even the uncertain 11 percent, when asked again, 53 percent said they would vote for Trump and 47 percent for Biden.
In November, a New York Times poll showed that Trump was five points ahead of Biden in Arizona, six in Georgia, five in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and four in Pennsylvania, while Biden was just two points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.
From the previous events and indicators, it can be concluded in principle that with the sharp polarization in international relations, the severe economic crisis resulting from the Coronavirus epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, recession and the Israeli attack on Gaza, the rise of far-right forces will continue in many countries of the world, especially Europe, especially the eastern side.
This means that in the next stage, the world will come to periods of intense polarization, conflicts and possibly wars.

Title:

Content: China, Argentina face new political reality
National Trend 17: 15 2024 / 02 / 23
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Progress of the Gisai Hydropower Station began to lag in 2021.
Photo taken during the Lunar New Year holidays. (Photo)
Since President Javier Milei took office in December last year, Argentina has repeatedly said that Argentina will stop cooperating with the Chinese government, and the Belt and Road hydropower project, which symbolizes the strategic partnership between China and Argentina, is facing suspension.
After winning the first round of voting, Milai said he did not want to "establish ties with communist countries", and after taking office, it was reported that his foreign minister, Diana Mondino, had met with Taiwan's representative in Argentina.
Among them, the “Guisai Hydropower Station ” project, located in Santa Cruz, Argentina ’ s second largest province, is the most eye-catching.
The world ’ s southernmost hydropower project, located on a glacier, is financed by a consortium of banks from the National Development Bank of China, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Bank of China.
To date, $1.85 billion of the $4.71 billion in total loans have been delivered to Argentina.
However, as early as 2021, the progress of the construction of the hydropower plant was not as expected, and the financing of the Chinese side was shelved.
Since December last year, the project has been in a state of shutdown, and there is no timetable for when it will reopen.
Millet ’ s comments during the campaign, as well as his withdrawal from the former government ’ s application to join the BRICS, further exacerbated tensions between the two countries.
Gustavo Cardozo, a resident researcher at Observa Da China de Brasil, said Argentina ’ s Ministry of Economy and Energy was reviewing the dam project contract, and that if Argentina could not continue the project under the contract, it would have to repay the funds it had already paid and even face the consequences of compensating China ’ s losses.
“Millet is in line with the United States, but it is also clear that China has irreplaceable advantages in financing and economics in Argentina, ” David Feliba, a South American international relations expert in Argentina, explained. In the face of Argentina ’ s disastrous economy, it is impossible to unilaterally cancel the dam project.
Critical Timing Blinken Visits Water Temperature
At a time of deep reform and economic crisis in Argentina, US Secretary of State Colin Blinken visited Argentina and met with Millet. “Blinken ’ s visit is highly important, and the US support for the IMF ’ s bailout and debt restructuring is linked to the Millet government ’ s public support for US and Israeli foreign policy, ” Justa said.
Argentina has listed Hamas as a terrorist organization, in line with the United States.
This will not only help the United States to help Argentina secure financing and international funding, but will also change the geopolitical landscape. ”
Ricardo Valencia, an assistant professor of international relations at Cal State Fullerton, believes that Millet will be very pragmatic about China, but he will not hide his priorities for the United States.
As for whether China will stop investment in Argentina in the future because of Mile ’ s ideological stance, he believes that this will not happen, but the future of financing, including hydropower plants, must be carefully observed.
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Argentina ’ s President Reacts to Spain ’ s ‘ Permanent ’ Recall of Ambassador
2024 / 5 / 22 11: 15
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Argentine President Javier Milei continued to speak out against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez today, as the Spanish government announced a "permanent" recall of its ambassador and diplomatic relations between the two countries deteriorated.
According to Agence France-Presse and Reuters, Mireille called Sanchez an "arrogant socialist" with an "inferiority complex" and advised him to seek counseling.
Spain recalled its ambassador to Buenos Aires last weekend after Mireille said he had a "corrupt wife" during a recent visit to Madrid.
Spain ’ s Prime Minister ’ s wife, Begona Gomez, was under court investigation for alleged privatisation and business corruption by rights groups, but the Madrid prosecutor ’ s office asked for the case to be dropped, citing a lack of evidence.
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said the recalled ambassador was "ultimately determined to stay in Madrid."
Argentina no longer has an ambassador to Spain. ”
"It is unprecedented for a head of state to come to another capital to insult its system and openly interfere in internal affairs," Albares said at a press conference.
"We have no interest or desire to worsen the situation, but the Spanish government has an obligation to defend the dignity and sovereignty of the system, especially when violations occur in the Spanish capital," he added.
Albares said the Spanish embassy in Argentina would be run by the chargé d'affaires, adding that ideological differences could be discussed, but "there are things that don't."
Mireille responded, calling Spain's actions "absurd and typical of arrogant socialists".
Mirei went on to provoke Sanchez on social media platform X, saying he would return to Madrid on June 21 to receive an award from a liberal institution.
“Let ’ s see how deep totalitarianism is in his blood … Let ’ s see if his deep inferiority complex allows the Spanish liberals to award me a prize, ” Mireille wrote.
Mirai ’ s spokesman, Manuel Adorni, later said Argentina would not recall its ambassador to Spain “under any circumstances. ”
"Our brotherhood has nothing to do with this... We have never had the absurd idea of recalling an ambassador from a friendly country like Spain," Adoni said.
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Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

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His attempts to close the Central Bank and dollarize the economy, if successful, would represent one of the most significant institutional transformations in Argentina's history.

Title:

Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: Global News
World Today - Crazy rally in Argentine stock markets after Milly win
You are now following the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Millie from the news section of the world and now we leave you with full details
MOHAMMED, Abu Dhabi, Tuesday, November 21, 2023 07: 21 PM - The Argentine stock market jumped 20% at the opening on Tuesday, in the first reaction to the landslide victory of Argentina ’ s ultra-liberal president-elect Javier Mille.
The rise was contributed by the national oil company YPF, whose shares rose 34 percent after the president-elect announced he would privatize them as part of his reform package.
On Monday, Wall Street listed YPF shares rose 40 percent at the close.
Monday, the day after the election, was a public holiday in Argentina, delaying market reaction.
Milley, 53, an economist who describes himself as a “anarchist capitalist, ” said in his victory speech Sunday evening:“ Today begins the end of decadence ” and the “reconstruction of Argentina ” begins, warning that there will be“ no half-solutions ”.
Milley pledged to give up the peso in favor of the US dollar and shut down the central bank, which he accused of printing money too heavily to fund excessive government spending, in a bid to stem inflation.
Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (143 percent year-on-year) while the value of the peso continues to fall.
During his election campaign, he said he would get rid of about a dozen ministries, among other controversial proposals.
Argentina is currently holding its breath waiting for what he will do when he takes office on Dec. 10, especially as his legislative power is limited.
We hope that we have succeeded in conveying the full details of the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Mili..
In God ’ s care and protection.
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dollarizing the Argentinian currency
closing the central bank

dollarizing the Argentinian currency
closing the central bank

dollarizing the Argentinian currency
closing the central bank

However, his limited legislative authority has constrained his ability to implement these reforms fully.

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Content: Global News
World Today - Crazy rally in Argentine stock markets after Milly win
You are now following the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Millie from the news section of the world and now we leave you with full details
MOHAMMED, Abu Dhabi, Tuesday, November 21, 2023 07: 21 PM - The Argentine stock market jumped 20% at the opening on Tuesday, in the first reaction to the landslide victory of Argentina ’ s ultra-liberal president-elect Javier Mille.
The rise was contributed by the national oil company YPF, whose shares rose 34 percent after the president-elect announced he would privatize them as part of his reform package.
On Monday, Wall Street listed YPF shares rose 40 percent at the close.
Monday, the day after the election, was a public holiday in Argentina, delaying market reaction.
Milley, 53, an economist who describes himself as a “anarchist capitalist, ” said in his victory speech Sunday evening:“ Today begins the end of decadence ” and the “reconstruction of Argentina ” begins, warning that there will be“ no half-solutions ”.
Milley pledged to give up the peso in favor of the US dollar and shut down the central bank, which he accused of printing money too heavily to fund excessive government spending, in a bid to stem inflation.
Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (143 percent year-on-year) while the value of the peso continues to fall.
During his election campaign, he said he would get rid of about a dozen ministries, among other controversial proposals.
Argentina is currently holding its breath waiting for what he will do when he takes office on Dec. 10, especially as his legislative power is limited.
We hope that we have succeeded in conveying the full details of the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Mili..
In God ’ s care and protection.
Advertisements
You may also read.

## Conclusion

Javier Milei's policy agenda represents a radical departure from Argentina's traditional approach to governance, economics, and international relations.

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Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
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Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

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Content: Argentina reaches agreement with IMF on new $4.7 billion tranche
Money and Business
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Argentina ’ s Economy Minister Luis Caputo said his government had agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to continue the expanded lending mechanism and allocate a new tranche of $4.7 billion.
“We have reached an agreement with the IMF as part of the seventh review of the extended credit program.
This is not a new agreement, but a revived one that was not in force because of the failure to achieve the goals set for it. ”
The agreement is now due to be presented to the IMF ’ s board of governors, and after final approval, Argentina will be able to receive a $4.7 billion tranche.
The minister said the $4.7 billion tranche would be used to pay the outstanding payments.
According to the minister, his government did not try to reach a new agreement with the IMF because it would have taken much longer.
For his part, an IMF source pointed out that the said segment "aims to support the efforts of the new authorities to restore macroeconomic stability."
"Although the road to stability will be difficult and the situation will worsen before it improves, the first steps have been successful in avoiding a worsening of the crisis," the source said.
According to the IMF, the Argentine government plans to “achieve a primary surplus of 2% of GDP ” this year.
By November 2023, Argentina ’ s deficit was 1.7% of GDP.
At the end of January 2022, then-Argentine President Alberto Fernandez announced an agreement with the IMF to refinance $44 billion in debt.
In May 2018, Mauricio Macri, who in May 2018 was the head of state, asked the IMF for help and provision of this loan due to the sharp devaluation of the national currency.
Fernández ’ s government described the debt as criminal and disproportionate to the country ’ s capabilities.
On 10 December, Javier Miley took office as President of Argentina.
In his first speech as head of state, he described the situation in the country as critical and pointed to the need for shocking measures in the economy.
Source: TASS
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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
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Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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Content: Two events and an indication that took place last week suggest that there is a new rise of the extreme right in the world, from Europe and the United States to South America.
The three events are the electoral rise of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party, then the victory of the extremist Javier Milley in the presidency of Argentina, and the third indicator is the continued rise and lead of Donald Trump in the opinion polls.
The right-wing Freedom Party won 37 seats in the Dutch parliament, more than double its share, and will therefore have the upper hand in forming a government.
Geert Wilders, 60, founded his party in 2006 with the aim of defending Dutch, not European, culture and identity.
One of the party ’ s most important slogans is to fight against immigrants, especially Arabs, and it has called Moroccan immigrants “scum ” and organized competitions for cartoons offensive to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and vowed to ban the Koran, mosques and the hijab.
He pledged to stop the tsunami of asylum seekers, impose strict controls to “protect Dutch identity and values ” and deport Syrian migrants.
He is also skeptical of the European Union and considers Brussels and its excessive bureaucracy a threat to national sovereignty, calling for greater control over laws, borders and economic policies and pledging to hold a referendum on his country ’ s remaining in the bloc.
The Freedom Party says it is a great friend of the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel, and that relationship will be strengthened by moving the embassy to Jerusalem and closing the Dutch cultural center in Ramallah.
The second important event was the victory of Javier Milley as president of Argentina, whose basic policies are almost identical to those of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and other far-right forces and parties in the world.
He said his first foreign visit would be to the United States and he would meet with a number of Jewish rabbis there, because he follows their teachings.
The second visit will be to Israel, pledging to move his country ’ s embassy to occupied Jerusalem, and his foreign policy will focus on cooperation with the “American-Israeli axis ” and will not negotiate with leftist regimes such as Brazil and China.
The first to congratulate him was also the right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
Milley pledged to deal in the US dollar, abolish the central bank, abolish the health and education ministries, and privatize some major public companies.
But the irony is that the new president ’ s party, Freedom Advances, did not get any of the governors ’ posts, which are dominated by the Peronist movement, and he was also remarkable for saying that his country would not participate in the BRICS and did not intend to work with Russia, China and communist countries.
Millie also said he admired Trump and the latter said he would attend his inauguration.
The third indicator is that opinion polls indicate that Donald Trump is ahead of all potential challengers in the presidential election late next year.
A recent Harvard Center poll with The Hill found that Trump had 48 percent of respondents compared to 41 percent for current president Joe Biden, and even the uncertain 11 percent, when asked again, 53 percent said they would vote for Trump and 47 percent for Biden.
In November, a New York Times poll showed that Trump was five points ahead of Biden in Arizona, six in Georgia, five in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and four in Pennsylvania, while Biden was just two points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.
From the previous events and indicators, it can be concluded in principle that with the sharp polarization in international relations, the severe economic crisis resulting from the Coronavirus epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, recession and the Israeli attack on Gaza, the rise of far-right forces will continue in many countries of the world, especially Europe, especially the eastern side.
This means that in the next stage, the world will come to periods of intense polarization, conflicts and possibly wars.

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Content: China, Argentina face new political reality
National Trend 17: 15 2024 / 02 / 23
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Progress of the Gisai Hydropower Station began to lag in 2021.
Photo taken during the Lunar New Year holidays. (Photo)
Since President Javier Milei took office in December last year, Argentina has repeatedly said that Argentina will stop cooperating with the Chinese government, and the Belt and Road hydropower project, which symbolizes the strategic partnership between China and Argentina, is facing suspension.
After winning the first round of voting, Milai said he did not want to "establish ties with communist countries", and after taking office, it was reported that his foreign minister, Diana Mondino, had met with Taiwan's representative in Argentina.
Among them, the “Guisai Hydropower Station ” project, located in Santa Cruz, Argentina ’ s second largest province, is the most eye-catching.
The world ’ s southernmost hydropower project, located on a glacier, is financed by a consortium of banks from the National Development Bank of China, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Bank of China.
To date, $1.85 billion of the $4.71 billion in total loans have been delivered to Argentina.
However, as early as 2021, the progress of the construction of the hydropower plant was not as expected, and the financing of the Chinese side was shelved.
Since December last year, the project has been in a state of shutdown, and there is no timetable for when it will reopen.
Millet ’ s comments during the campaign, as well as his withdrawal from the former government ’ s application to join the BRICS, further exacerbated tensions between the two countries.
Gustavo Cardozo, a resident researcher at Observa Da China de Brasil, said Argentina ’ s Ministry of Economy and Energy was reviewing the dam project contract, and that if Argentina could not continue the project under the contract, it would have to repay the funds it had already paid and even face the consequences of compensating China ’ s losses.
“Millet is in line with the United States, but it is also clear that China has irreplaceable advantages in financing and economics in Argentina, ” David Feliba, a South American international relations expert in Argentina, explained. In the face of Argentina ’ s disastrous economy, it is impossible to unilaterally cancel the dam project.
Critical Timing Blinken Visits Water Temperature
At a time of deep reform and economic crisis in Argentina, US Secretary of State Colin Blinken visited Argentina and met with Millet. “Blinken ’ s visit is highly important, and the US support for the IMF ’ s bailout and debt restructuring is linked to the Millet government ’ s public support for US and Israeli foreign policy, ” Justa said.
Argentina has listed Hamas as a terrorist organization, in line with the United States.
This will not only help the United States to help Argentina secure financing and international funding, but will also change the geopolitical landscape. ”
Ricardo Valencia, an assistant professor of international relations at Cal State Fullerton, believes that Millet will be very pragmatic about China, but he will not hide his priorities for the United States.
As for whether China will stop investment in Argentina in the future because of Mile ’ s ideological stance, he believes that this will not happen, but the future of financing, including hydropower plants, must be carefully observed.
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Argentina ’ s President Reacts to Spain ’ s ‘ Permanent ’ Recall of Ambassador
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Argentine President Javier Milei continued to speak out against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez today, as the Spanish government announced a "permanent" recall of its ambassador and diplomatic relations between the two countries deteriorated.
According to Agence France-Presse and Reuters, Mireille called Sanchez an "arrogant socialist" with an "inferiority complex" and advised him to seek counseling.
Spain recalled its ambassador to Buenos Aires last weekend after Mireille said he had a "corrupt wife" during a recent visit to Madrid.
Spain ’ s Prime Minister ’ s wife, Begona Gomez, was under court investigation for alleged privatisation and business corruption by rights groups, but the Madrid prosecutor ’ s office asked for the case to be dropped, citing a lack of evidence.
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said the recalled ambassador was "ultimately determined to stay in Madrid."
Argentina no longer has an ambassador to Spain. ”
"It is unprecedented for a head of state to come to another capital to insult its system and openly interfere in internal affairs," Albares said at a press conference.
"We have no interest or desire to worsen the situation, but the Spanish government has an obligation to defend the dignity and sovereignty of the system, especially when violations occur in the Spanish capital," he added.
Albares said the Spanish embassy in Argentina would be run by the chargé d'affaires, adding that ideological differences could be discussed, but "there are things that don't."
Mireille responded, calling Spain's actions "absurd and typical of arrogant socialists".
Mirei went on to provoke Sanchez on social media platform X, saying he would return to Madrid on June 21 to receive an award from a liberal institution.
“Let ’ s see how deep totalitarianism is in his blood … Let ’ s see if his deep inferiority complex allows the Spanish liberals to award me a prize, ” Mireille wrote.
Mirai ’ s spokesman, Manuel Adorni, later said Argentina would not recall its ambassador to Spain “under any circumstances. ”
"Our brotherhood has nothing to do with this... We have never had the absurd idea of recalling an ambassador from a friendly country like Spain," Adoni said.
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Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

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Content: BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentine President Javier Milli has told BRICS leaders that Buenos Aires will not join the group in early 2024, in keeping with the ultra-liberal president ’ s campaign pledge, the presidency said Friday.
In a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and other BRICS members (Russia, India, China, South Africa), Milley said: “Argentina ’ s accession to the BRICS as a full member country from early January 2024 is not appropriate. ”
The president, who took office on December 10, said his government ’ s foreign policy “differs in many ways from that of the previous government. ”
Review of decisions
"In this context, some of the decisions taken by the previous government will be reviewed, including the establishment of a [...]
It ’ s about the country ’ s participation in BRICS. ”
The last BRICS summit, held in August in Johannesburg, saw invitations to six countries - Argentina, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates - to join the group from early January 2024.
During his campaign, Milley reiterated his refusal to join the BRICS and supported his desire to "support any agreements with the communists because they do not respect the fundamentals of free trade, freedom and democracy."
A spokesman for the Argentine presidency said the letters to the BRICS member states indicate that "we are making a change in foreign policy based on more in-depth analysis than the previous government."

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Content: Argentina's president says to make a "paycheck lottery", 3 million people snatched her lucky win.
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Argentina's new president Javier Milei has previously said that if he is elected president, he will dismantle the ruling class, close the government and the central bank, and donate his $3,200, equivalent to about NT $94,000 in salary, and he also said that he will do so, using his Instagram account on the 15th to conduct a "live lottery", but the amount is the last monthly salary of Mirei as a member of about 2.1 million. Argentine pesos, equivalent to about NT $78,000.
"This is my last salary as a public representative because I now have a new job," Mirei told the public in a live broadcast of the 15th, the economic liberal and fiscal conservative president took office, first as a member of the last monthly salary lottery, won by a woman named Gomez, according to World Nation News, about 3 million people participated in the lottery that day.
Originally, Mirei 2 years ago when he ran for the election, he promised to donate his monthly salary after the election to the people's lottery, and after the end of the previous 24 monthly salary lottery, Mirei will publish the transfer certificate on the social platform.
Miley, a 53-year-old economist who has been president of Argentina just two years after entering politics, has pledged to donate his salary: “When I ran for Congress, I promised to donate my salary … as I kept my promise as a representative, and I will continue to do so as president. ”
Born in 1970, Mireille ’ s college year coincided with Argentina ’ s hyperinflation of 1989, which led him to move from being a rock band lead singer and football goalkeeper to an economist determined to study the economy.
After being elected to the Argentine House of Representatives, Mirei gave his monthly salary to the public through a lottery to realize his idea of returning money to the public.
After December 10, Mirei intends to use Mirei economics to vigorously rectify the Argentine economy, he also said in the live broadcast on the 15th, the first task at this stage is to end the vicious inflation crisis, while calling on the people not to be crushed by pessimism.
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His libertarian, market-oriented reforms aim to fundamentally restructure Argentina's economy through dollarization, austerity measures, and government downsizing.

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Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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Content: Global News
World Today - Crazy rally in Argentine stock markets after Milly win
You are now following the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Millie from the news section of the world and now we leave you with full details
MOHAMMED, Abu Dhabi, Tuesday, November 21, 2023 07: 21 PM - The Argentine stock market jumped 20% at the opening on Tuesday, in the first reaction to the landslide victory of Argentina ’ s ultra-liberal president-elect Javier Mille.
The rise was contributed by the national oil company YPF, whose shares rose 34 percent after the president-elect announced he would privatize them as part of his reform package.
On Monday, Wall Street listed YPF shares rose 40 percent at the close.
Monday, the day after the election, was a public holiday in Argentina, delaying market reaction.
Milley, 53, an economist who describes himself as a “anarchist capitalist, ” said in his victory speech Sunday evening:“ Today begins the end of decadence ” and the “reconstruction of Argentina ” begins, warning that there will be“ no half-solutions ”.
Milley pledged to give up the peso in favor of the US dollar and shut down the central bank, which he accused of printing money too heavily to fund excessive government spending, in a bid to stem inflation.
Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates in the world (143 percent year-on-year) while the value of the peso continues to fall.
During his election campaign, he said he would get rid of about a dozen ministries, among other controversial proposals.
Argentina is currently holding its breath waiting for what he will do when he takes office on Dec. 10, especially as his legislative power is limited.
We hope that we have succeeded in conveying the full details of the news of a crazy rise in the Argentine stock markets after the victory of Mili..
In God ’ s care and protection.
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Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

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The Argentine capital, Buenos Aires, witnessed huge celebrations after the victory of the national team in the World Cup, in an achievement that raised the spirits high in the South American country and brought joy to the hearts of people hurt by high prices and the malaise of the economy.
But despite the glare of victory in a thrilling final against France, the grim economic reality is casting a dark shadow over Argentina, with inflation at around 100 percent, tight capital controls, poverty at around 40 percent and a looming fear of default.
The 86-year-old, who was celebrating her country ’ s victory, said: “The World Cup is an overwhelming joy that revives us after suffering a long economic crisis.
But soon we will have to go back to reality and face the situations that burden us every day. ”
Argentina ’ s resounding victory, the first since Diego Maradona lifted the trophy in 1986, sent millions onto the streets to cheer Lionel Messi ’ s national team as a vent of frustration at leaders who have failed to get the economy on track for years.
The crowds were huge and very high.
It has been estimated that between four and five million people filled the streets.
The concourse had to take a shortcut and the players were taken to helicopters to fly over the city.
But after the drunkenness of the victory and its celebrations came the idea and the Argentines returned to reality and its painful realities.
The country, once one of the wealthiest in the world, posted annual inflation of 92.4 percent in November and a record interest rate of 75 percent.
Issues of cash printing, overvaluation of the peso and the decline in foreign reserves are exacerbated.
Investors are concerned that Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who was appointed to fix things in August, is not carrying out enough reforms amid the prospect of a general election late next year that the government fears losing.
Ted Mann, chief equity analyst for emerging markets at Alliance Bernstein, said: “Masa is just trying to address every problem that comes to its head and is very careful not to make any significant reforms before the 2023 election.
Under Massa ’ s leadership, Argentines are exceptional at kicking problems in front of them.
They're better at kicking her than Messi kicking the ball. "
Required Kick
But some Argentines are more optimistic.
Osvaldo Hassan, a 62-year-old trader in Buenos Aires, said: “The World Cup gives us hope and a desire to believe.
"This could be the push we need to build consensus and move the economy forward."
Camilla Gotelli, 25, a marketing professional, said the “historic ” win could boost Argentina by attracting more tourism, creating jobs and strengthening the country ’ s global standing.
A paper from the University of Surrey found that winning the World Cup could give a small boost to a country ’ s economy in the months following the win, helping boost exports.
In the short term, it could also give a boost to leftist President Alberto Fernandez.
His popularity has plummeted due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic woes, despite a new $44 billion deal with the IMF this year.
Carlos Zarate, a 63-year-old trader in the capital, believes this will be in the government ’ s favor for a few days “because it will distract people ”.
As soon as summer in the southern hemisphere is over, "the blow of reality will come."
Last month, ratings agency Moody ’ s criticized Argentina, citing rising central bank debt as a risk to financial stability.
Standard & Poor ’ s has downgraded its rating of Argentina ’ s already struggling local currency bonds to an “undesirable ” rating.
Graham Stock, chief strategist at BlueBay East Management, said he expected positive economic changes from next year ’ s election after a change of government became a rarity after the ruling coalition suffered a crushing defeat in the mid-term last year.
Maria Belén Pereira, 32, an elementary school teacher, said economic changes would not happen overnight and needed the participation of everyone, not just the football team.
"We celebrate because (the team) represents us as a country, but that was the sacrifice of almost 30 people...
For the economy to change, we must all participate. ”
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While these policies have garnered increasing confidence from investors, they have also exacerbated social challenges, including rising poverty and food insecurity.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

Milei's unconventional leadership style and provocative diplomacy have created tensions with traditional partners while signaling a realignment toward Western powers.

Title:

Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
Full article 0 comments

Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

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Content: Two events and an indication that took place last week suggest that there is a new rise of the extreme right in the world, from Europe and the United States to South America.
The three events are the electoral rise of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party, then the victory of the extremist Javier Milley in the presidency of Argentina, and the third indicator is the continued rise and lead of Donald Trump in the opinion polls.
The right-wing Freedom Party won 37 seats in the Dutch parliament, more than double its share, and will therefore have the upper hand in forming a government.
Geert Wilders, 60, founded his party in 2006 with the aim of defending Dutch, not European, culture and identity.
One of the party ’ s most important slogans is to fight against immigrants, especially Arabs, and it has called Moroccan immigrants “scum ” and organized competitions for cartoons offensive to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and vowed to ban the Koran, mosques and the hijab.
He pledged to stop the tsunami of asylum seekers, impose strict controls to “protect Dutch identity and values ” and deport Syrian migrants.
He is also skeptical of the European Union and considers Brussels and its excessive bureaucracy a threat to national sovereignty, calling for greater control over laws, borders and economic policies and pledging to hold a referendum on his country ’ s remaining in the bloc.
The Freedom Party says it is a great friend of the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel, and that relationship will be strengthened by moving the embassy to Jerusalem and closing the Dutch cultural center in Ramallah.
The second important event was the victory of Javier Milley as president of Argentina, whose basic policies are almost identical to those of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and other far-right forces and parties in the world.
He said his first foreign visit would be to the United States and he would meet with a number of Jewish rabbis there, because he follows their teachings.
The second visit will be to Israel, pledging to move his country ’ s embassy to occupied Jerusalem, and his foreign policy will focus on cooperation with the “American-Israeli axis ” and will not negotiate with leftist regimes such as Brazil and China.
The first to congratulate him was also the right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
Milley pledged to deal in the US dollar, abolish the central bank, abolish the health and education ministries, and privatize some major public companies.
But the irony is that the new president ’ s party, Freedom Advances, did not get any of the governors ’ posts, which are dominated by the Peronist movement, and he was also remarkable for saying that his country would not participate in the BRICS and did not intend to work with Russia, China and communist countries.
Millie also said he admired Trump and the latter said he would attend his inauguration.
The third indicator is that opinion polls indicate that Donald Trump is ahead of all potential challengers in the presidential election late next year.
A recent Harvard Center poll with The Hill found that Trump had 48 percent of respondents compared to 41 percent for current president Joe Biden, and even the uncertain 11 percent, when asked again, 53 percent said they would vote for Trump and 47 percent for Biden.
In November, a New York Times poll showed that Trump was five points ahead of Biden in Arizona, six in Georgia, five in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and four in Pennsylvania, while Biden was just two points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.
From the previous events and indicators, it can be concluded in principle that with the sharp polarization in international relations, the severe economic crisis resulting from the Coronavirus epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, recession and the Israeli attack on Gaza, the rise of far-right forces will continue in many countries of the world, especially Europe, especially the eastern side.
This means that in the next stage, the world will come to periods of intense polarization, conflicts and possibly wars.

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Argentina ’ s President Reacts to Spain ’ s ‘ Permanent ’ Recall of Ambassador
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Argentine President Javier Milei continued to speak out against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez today, as the Spanish government announced a "permanent" recall of its ambassador and diplomatic relations between the two countries deteriorated.
According to Agence France-Presse and Reuters, Mireille called Sanchez an "arrogant socialist" with an "inferiority complex" and advised him to seek counseling.
Spain recalled its ambassador to Buenos Aires last weekend after Mireille said he had a "corrupt wife" during a recent visit to Madrid.
Spain ’ s Prime Minister ’ s wife, Begona Gomez, was under court investigation for alleged privatisation and business corruption by rights groups, but the Madrid prosecutor ’ s office asked for the case to be dropped, citing a lack of evidence.
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said the recalled ambassador was "ultimately determined to stay in Madrid."
Argentina no longer has an ambassador to Spain. ”
"It is unprecedented for a head of state to come to another capital to insult its system and openly interfere in internal affairs," Albares said at a press conference.
"We have no interest or desire to worsen the situation, but the Spanish government has an obligation to defend the dignity and sovereignty of the system, especially when violations occur in the Spanish capital," he added.
Albares said the Spanish embassy in Argentina would be run by the chargé d'affaires, adding that ideological differences could be discussed, but "there are things that don't."
Mireille responded, calling Spain's actions "absurd and typical of arrogant socialists".
Mirei went on to provoke Sanchez on social media platform X, saying he would return to Madrid on June 21 to receive an award from a liberal institution.
“Let ’ s see how deep totalitarianism is in his blood … Let ’ s see if his deep inferiority complex allows the Spanish liberals to award me a prize, ” Mireille wrote.
Mirai ’ s spokesman, Manuel Adorni, later said Argentina would not recall its ambassador to Spain “under any circumstances. ”
"Our brotherhood has nothing to do with this... We have never had the absurd idea of recalling an ambassador from a friendly country like Spain," Adoni said.
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Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

Title:

Content: BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentine President Javier Milli has told BRICS leaders that Buenos Aires will not join the group in early 2024, in keeping with the ultra-liberal president ’ s campaign pledge, the presidency said Friday.
In a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and other BRICS members (Russia, India, China, South Africa), Milley said: “Argentina ’ s accession to the BRICS as a full member country from early January 2024 is not appropriate. ”
The president, who took office on December 10, said his government ’ s foreign policy “differs in many ways from that of the previous government. ”
Review of decisions
"In this context, some of the decisions taken by the previous government will be reviewed, including the establishment of a [...]
It ’ s about the country ’ s participation in BRICS. ”
The last BRICS summit, held in August in Johannesburg, saw invitations to six countries - Argentina, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates - to join the group from early January 2024.
During his campaign, Milley reiterated his refusal to join the BRICS and supported his desire to "support any agreements with the communists because they do not respect the fundamentals of free trade, freedom and democracy."
A spokesman for the Argentine presidency said the letters to the BRICS member states indicate that "we are making a change in foreign policy based on more in-depth analysis than the previous government."

What are some of the "liberal democracies" that the Milei administration prioritizes partnerships?

What are some of the "liberal democracies" that the Milei administration prioritizes partnerships?

What are some of the "liberal democracies" that the Milei administration prioritizes partnerships?

What are some of the "liberal democracies" that the Milei administration prioritizes partnerships?

What are some of the "liberal democracies" that the Milei administration prioritizes partnerships?

What are some of the "liberal democracies" that the Milei administration prioritizes partnerships?

The ultimate success of his agenda remains uncertain, as it faces significant institutional constraints and potential social resistance.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

Related

The strength of Diversity in Latin America: The emerging role of female leadership on the continent

In modern, open societies, diversity accentuates the multiplicity of...

Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

During the Battle of Britain in the summer of...

Decisions needed in a post-multilateral globe: a column by Ingo Plöger.

The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

For Argentina, the Milei presidency represents a high-stakes experiment in libertarian governance that could either pull the country out of its long cycle of economic crises or further entrench its challenges.

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Content: MercoPress, en Español

Montevideo, October 19th 2023 - 01:24 UTC

Argentine President has busy agenda in China

Wednesday, October 18th 2023 - 08:57 UTC
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Argentine President Alberto Fernández met with the head of the New Development Bank (NDB), Dilma Rousseff, to advance the South American country's accession to the BRICS financial institution.

Fernández's entourage included Argentina's Ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja; head of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), Miguel Pesce; Deputy Foreign Minister Cecilia Todesca; and Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello.

Also attending the meeting were NDB Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov, Chief Operating Officer Qingwu Zhou, and Rousseff's advisor Marco Tulio Mendoca, among others. The NDB was established by the BRICS in 2015 to provide a financing alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Former Brazilian President Rousseff took over as head of the institution last March after Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva came to power, replacing Marcos Prado Troyjo, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro.

Later Tuesday, Fernández traveled to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the III Forum of the Belt and Road, an event that brought together leaders from 80 countries to discuss China's role in the international arena, along with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The initiative is an economic project based on the ancient Silk Road (which functioned as a trade route in the splendor of Imperial China) that seeks to strengthen its ties through two major corridors: a land corridor (The Belt) to connect China with Europe; and a maritime corridor (The Road) to connect Africa and Latin America. Last year, Argentina joined the Belt and Road and received more than US$23 billion in financing deals in return.

The businessmen at the meeting spoke to Fernández about their concerns regarding the outcome of next Sunday's elections and whether whoever wins will remain interested in participating in both the Belt and Road and the BRICS, of which Argentina will become a full member on January 1.

Libertarian Congressman Javier Milei said he had no intention of maintaining trade relations with China and Brazil (Argentina's two main trading partners) for “ideological” reasons. Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio has already announced her opposition to joining the BRICS. In other words, all these negotiations that Fernández has undertaken would only be implemented if Sergio Massa wins.

Title:

Content: Argentina reaches agreement with IMF on new $4.7 billion tranche
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Argentina ’ s Economy Minister Luis Caputo said his government had agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to continue the expanded lending mechanism and allocate a new tranche of $4.7 billion.
“We have reached an agreement with the IMF as part of the seventh review of the extended credit program.
This is not a new agreement, but a revived one that was not in force because of the failure to achieve the goals set for it. ”
The agreement is now due to be presented to the IMF ’ s board of governors, and after final approval, Argentina will be able to receive a $4.7 billion tranche.
The minister said the $4.7 billion tranche would be used to pay the outstanding payments.
According to the minister, his government did not try to reach a new agreement with the IMF because it would have taken much longer.
For his part, an IMF source pointed out that the said segment "aims to support the efforts of the new authorities to restore macroeconomic stability."
"Although the road to stability will be difficult and the situation will worsen before it improves, the first steps have been successful in avoiding a worsening of the crisis," the source said.
According to the IMF, the Argentine government plans to “achieve a primary surplus of 2% of GDP ” this year.
By November 2023, Argentina ’ s deficit was 1.7% of GDP.
At the end of January 2022, then-Argentine President Alberto Fernandez announced an agreement with the IMF to refinance $44 billion in debt.
In May 2018, Mauricio Macri, who in May 2018 was the head of state, asked the IMF for help and provision of this loan due to the sharp devaluation of the national currency.
Fernández ’ s government described the debt as criminal and disproportionate to the country ’ s capabilities.
On 10 December, Javier Miley took office as President of Argentina.
In his first speech as head of state, he described the situation in the country as critical and pointed to the need for shocking measures in the economy.
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Argentina ’ s President Softens Attitude: If People Want to Do Business with China, It ’ s OK
Before the election, Argentine President Mirei opposed China and accused China of mediating the election. During the campaign, he even threatened to “sever relations with China ”, but Mirei ’ s attitude toward China has changed significantly since taking office.
Mainland Internet media "Observer Network" pointed out that when Mirei recently interviewed about relations with China, "the tone of voice is far more pragmatic and gentle" than when he was campaigning.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Mirei said trade relations between China and Argentina have “not changed at all ” and that he has no intention of changing the $18 billion currency swap agreement between the two countries.
“We ’ ve always said we ’ re ‘ liberals ’ ” and“ if people want to do business with China, they can. ”
Referring to the joint space monitoring and control station project between the two countries, Mirey mentioned that the United States has raised unwarranted doubts about the project from time to time, claiming that it poses a "threat" to the United States.
He said that the Argentine government is starting consultations with China on the planned inspection and will study the relevant situation, "which is not a problem".
In reality, Mirei wants to transform Argentina ’ s highly regulated economy, lifting the country out of poverty and curbing inflation, Bloomberg said.
“Without China, it would be difficult for him to achieve that. ”
Chinese trade and investment now drive much of Argentina ’ s economy, from commodities and energy to banking.
China has funded dozens of infrastructure projects in Argentina.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Mirei met with the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping the day after he took office and stressed that he would continue to firmly adhere to the "one China principle".
But in an interview with Bloomberg during the campaign last August, Mr. Miley argued for a freeze on relations with China.
“The Chinese people have no freedom, they can ’ t do what they want to do, and if they do, they will die. ”
He also referred to China as an “assassin ” and asked,“ Are you willing to trade with an assassin? ”
“Developing countries around the world are struggling to choose ‘ allegiance ’ to the US or China when it comes to trade, finance and security, ” Bloomberg said.“ Given Argentina ’ s current inflation rate of 276%, its history of sovereign bond defaults and six recessions in the past decade, this country is more economically dependent on China than any of its Latin American neighbors. ” It ’ s better than China. ”
In addition, some analysts said that if relations with China break down, the damage will be Argentina.
Economically, Argentina ’ s central bank has become increasingly reliant on currency swaps to support the peso, and the government used Renminbi to pay back part of the IMF ’ s arrears when the supply of US dollars fell in July last year.
“If China-Argentina relations deteriorate in the future and China stops purchasing Argentine meat and other products, Argentina ’ s existing trade deficit with China may also continue to widen. ”
According to Bloomberg Economic Research, China is Argentina ’ s second largest export market, behind neighboring Brazil, and is also Argentina ’ s main source of imports.
In addition, China is also the largest buyer of unprocessed soybeans in Argentina, and is the key to participating in Argentina ’ s lithium resources.
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Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: Two events and an indication that took place last week suggest that there is a new rise of the extreme right in the world, from Europe and the United States to South America.
The three events are the electoral rise of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party, then the victory of the extremist Javier Milley in the presidency of Argentina, and the third indicator is the continued rise and lead of Donald Trump in the opinion polls.
The right-wing Freedom Party won 37 seats in the Dutch parliament, more than double its share, and will therefore have the upper hand in forming a government.
Geert Wilders, 60, founded his party in 2006 with the aim of defending Dutch, not European, culture and identity.
One of the party ’ s most important slogans is to fight against immigrants, especially Arabs, and it has called Moroccan immigrants “scum ” and organized competitions for cartoons offensive to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and vowed to ban the Koran, mosques and the hijab.
He pledged to stop the tsunami of asylum seekers, impose strict controls to “protect Dutch identity and values ” and deport Syrian migrants.
He is also skeptical of the European Union and considers Brussels and its excessive bureaucracy a threat to national sovereignty, calling for greater control over laws, borders and economic policies and pledging to hold a referendum on his country ’ s remaining in the bloc.
The Freedom Party says it is a great friend of the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel, and that relationship will be strengthened by moving the embassy to Jerusalem and closing the Dutch cultural center in Ramallah.
The second important event was the victory of Javier Milley as president of Argentina, whose basic policies are almost identical to those of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and other far-right forces and parties in the world.
He said his first foreign visit would be to the United States and he would meet with a number of Jewish rabbis there, because he follows their teachings.
The second visit will be to Israel, pledging to move his country ’ s embassy to occupied Jerusalem, and his foreign policy will focus on cooperation with the “American-Israeli axis ” and will not negotiate with leftist regimes such as Brazil and China.
The first to congratulate him was also the right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
Milley pledged to deal in the US dollar, abolish the central bank, abolish the health and education ministries, and privatize some major public companies.
But the irony is that the new president ’ s party, Freedom Advances, did not get any of the governors ’ posts, which are dominated by the Peronist movement, and he was also remarkable for saying that his country would not participate in the BRICS and did not intend to work with Russia, China and communist countries.
Millie also said he admired Trump and the latter said he would attend his inauguration.
The third indicator is that opinion polls indicate that Donald Trump is ahead of all potential challengers in the presidential election late next year.
A recent Harvard Center poll with The Hill found that Trump had 48 percent of respondents compared to 41 percent for current president Joe Biden, and even the uncertain 11 percent, when asked again, 53 percent said they would vote for Trump and 47 percent for Biden.
In November, a New York Times poll showed that Trump was five points ahead of Biden in Arizona, six in Georgia, five in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and four in Pennsylvania, while Biden was just two points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.
From the previous events and indicators, it can be concluded in principle that with the sharp polarization in international relations, the severe economic crisis resulting from the Coronavirus epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, recession and the Israeli attack on Gaza, the rise of far-right forces will continue in many countries of the world, especially Europe, especially the eastern side.
This means that in the next stage, the world will come to periods of intense polarization, conflicts and possibly wars.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

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Is Argentina Poised for a Turnaround? A column by Jerry Haar.

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The reality of international relations has changed profoundly, meaning...

Title:

Content: BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentine President Javier Milli has told BRICS leaders that Buenos Aires will not join the group in early 2024, in keeping with the ultra-liberal president ’ s campaign pledge, the presidency said Friday.
In a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and other BRICS members (Russia, India, China, South Africa), Milley said: “Argentina ’ s accession to the BRICS as a full member country from early January 2024 is not appropriate. ”
The president, who took office on December 10, said his government ’ s foreign policy “differs in many ways from that of the previous government. ”
Review of decisions
"In this context, some of the decisions taken by the previous government will be reviewed, including the establishment of a [...]
It ’ s about the country ’ s participation in BRICS. ”
The last BRICS summit, held in August in Johannesburg, saw invitations to six countries - Argentina, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates - to join the group from early January 2024.
During his campaign, Milley reiterated his refusal to join the BRICS and supported his desire to "support any agreements with the communists because they do not respect the fundamentals of free trade, freedom and democracy."
A spokesman for the Argentine presidency said the letters to the BRICS member states indicate that "we are making a change in foreign policy based on more in-depth analysis than the previous government."

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The Argentine capital, Buenos Aires, witnessed huge celebrations after the victory of the national team in the World Cup, in an achievement that raised the spirits high in the South American country and brought joy to the hearts of people hurt by high prices and the malaise of the economy.
But despite the glare of victory in a thrilling final against France, the grim economic reality is casting a dark shadow over Argentina, with inflation at around 100 percent, tight capital controls, poverty at around 40 percent and a looming fear of default.
The 86-year-old, who was celebrating her country ’ s victory, said: “The World Cup is an overwhelming joy that revives us after suffering a long economic crisis.
But soon we will have to go back to reality and face the situations that burden us every day. ”
Argentina ’ s resounding victory, the first since Diego Maradona lifted the trophy in 1986, sent millions onto the streets to cheer Lionel Messi ’ s national team as a vent of frustration at leaders who have failed to get the economy on track for years.
The crowds were huge and very high.
It has been estimated that between four and five million people filled the streets.
The concourse had to take a shortcut and the players were taken to helicopters to fly over the city.
But after the drunkenness of the victory and its celebrations came the idea and the Argentines returned to reality and its painful realities.
The country, once one of the wealthiest in the world, posted annual inflation of 92.4 percent in November and a record interest rate of 75 percent.
Issues of cash printing, overvaluation of the peso and the decline in foreign reserves are exacerbated.
Investors are concerned that Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who was appointed to fix things in August, is not carrying out enough reforms amid the prospect of a general election late next year that the government fears losing.
Ted Mann, chief equity analyst for emerging markets at Alliance Bernstein, said: “Masa is just trying to address every problem that comes to its head and is very careful not to make any significant reforms before the 2023 election.
Under Massa ’ s leadership, Argentines are exceptional at kicking problems in front of them.
They're better at kicking her than Messi kicking the ball. "
Required Kick
But some Argentines are more optimistic.
Osvaldo Hassan, a 62-year-old trader in Buenos Aires, said: “The World Cup gives us hope and a desire to believe.
"This could be the push we need to build consensus and move the economy forward."
Camilla Gotelli, 25, a marketing professional, said the “historic ” win could boost Argentina by attracting more tourism, creating jobs and strengthening the country ’ s global standing.
A paper from the University of Surrey found that winning the World Cup could give a small boost to a country ’ s economy in the months following the win, helping boost exports.
In the short term, it could also give a boost to leftist President Alberto Fernandez.
His popularity has plummeted due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic woes, despite a new $44 billion deal with the IMF this year.
Carlos Zarate, a 63-year-old trader in the capital, believes this will be in the government ’ s favor for a few days “because it will distract people ”.
As soon as summer in the southern hemisphere is over, "the blow of reality will come."
Last month, ratings agency Moody ’ s criticized Argentina, citing rising central bank debt as a risk to financial stability.
Standard & Poor ’ s has downgraded its rating of Argentina ’ s already struggling local currency bonds to an “undesirable ” rating.
Graham Stock, chief strategist at BlueBay East Management, said he expected positive economic changes from next year ’ s election after a change of government became a rarity after the ruling coalition suffered a crushing defeat in the mid-term last year.
Maria Belén Pereira, 32, an elementary school teacher, said economic changes would not happen overnight and needed the participation of everyone, not just the football team.
"We celebrate because (the team) represents us as a country, but that was the sacrifice of almost 30 people...
For the economy to change, we must all participate. ”
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The outcome will have significant implications not only for Argentina but also as a potential model for other countries in Latin America and beyond facing similar economic difficulties.

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Content: (Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s next president will take over in the middle of a financial emergency — which is par for the course in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Voters are heading to the polls on Oct. 22 with the country in recession for the sixth time in a decade, and inflation running close to 140%. Candidates are promising solutions that range from the orthodox — a bout of budget belt-tightening — to the radical: Frontrunner Javier Milei says he’d adopt the US dollar as Argentina’s currency as an alternative to the peso.

There’s unlikely to be any quick fix because Argentina’s current economic woes have their roots in decades of mismanagement. Governments zig-zagged between policies, unable to pursue a consistent approach, and most investors fled. The result is that the country — once one of the region’s wealthiest — has an economy that looks increasingly unique, and not in a good way.

“Argentina is an outlier, and it has been for a long time,” says Martin Castellano, head of Latin America research at the Institute of International Finance. And initial steps toward getting the economy back on track are set to be painful.

With central bank reserves in the red, and the peso overvalued at official exchange rates, whoever wins the election will likely preside over a currency devaluation while trying to overhaul the public finances. “It’s an unavoidable adjustment that will result in another recession next year,” says Castellano.

Here are five charts illustrating the deep and distinctive trouble that Latin America’s third-largest economy is in:

Recession Champion

Argentina has a long history of drastic economic swings, a result of weak and inconsistent policies that stand out even in a volatile neighborhood. A 2018 study by the World Bank found that between 1950 and 2016, the nation spent roughly one-third of the time in recession, the most of any country in the world except the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The economy is expected to contract again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund as well as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. If those forecasts are correct, it will mean the economy has shrunk in almost half of the years since 1980.

Losing Inflation Battle

Several Latin American countries suffered bouts of high inflation or even hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s. Most of them managed to get a grip on price pressures — by adopting inflation-targeting regimes, allowing their currencies to float, and developing local-currency debt markets.

Not in Argentina. After a currency peg ended in 2002, the country’s central bank has been increasingly financing the government’s deficit via money printing. As a result, the annual inflation rate reached a three-decade high of 138.3% in September, and it’s expected to surpass 180% by the end of the year.

Credit Desert

In most countries, the flow of bank credit to households and businesses is crucial for fueling economic growth. But in Argentina, years of high interest rates and inflation have been a barrier for both lenders and borrowers.

What’s more, private banks lend mainly to the ever-more-voracious government, leaving very little for individuals and companies. The result is that Argentina has one of the world’s lowest levels of credit to households, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Similarly, lending to businesses is only a fraction of the levels seen in neighbors Brazil and Chile.

ARGENTINA INSIGHT: Roadmap Out of Crisis — Fiscal’s First

Sinking Peso

The Argentine peso has lost almost 100% of its face value in the past two decades, and once again this year it has posted one of the worst spot returns among the main emerging economies. “They missed the opportunity to move to a flexible foreign exchange regime and it has never been done properly,” says Castellano.

No Foreign Capital

Amid all the volatility, it’s no wonder that Argentina has lagged its peers in attracting global money. Foreign direct investment in recent years has been much lower than in Brazil or Mexico, the only two Latin American economies that are larger.

Argentina has a big domestic market, but companies seeking to tap it face risks including nationalization or inability to send their profits to headquarters. Importers and exporters also have a tough time selling their products due to a byzantine system of capital controls. As for short-term funds, the country saw a surge of inflows under the market-friendly government of Mauricio Macri between 2015 and 2019 — but most of the hot money fled again as Macri presided over another economic collapse.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Title:

Content: No love for the Left: a column by John Price

One of the most impactful changes brought by higher US interest rates is the dwindling investor tolerance for leftist policies or bad governance in Latin America.  With U.S. treasuries paying 5%, why would anyone bet on Latin American leadership that makes an enemy of capitalism?

The contrasting sentiments shown for Argentina versus Colombia provides stunning evidence of the change in investor thinking.  In less than two years, Gustavo Petro has turned Colombia, Latin America’s investment darling, into an uncertain place to do business.  Three of Colombia’s most promising private sectors: oil & gas, healthcare, and coal production, collectively responsible for more than half of the country’s exports and foreign investment, are all under attack from policies and regulations steeped in ideology and naivete.  Oil and gas exploration was halted, ostensibly to save the environment.  We now know this was simply a ploy to justify importing PDVSA gas via a (to be refurbished) coastal pipeline.  The move benefits the Maduro administration, an important ally and will bring jobs to the Colombian coast where Petro needs more electoral support.

Sources: EIU, AMI

At first, investors were not sure how to embrace a Milei presidency in Argentina.  Was he a serious libertarian or an eccentric quack?  Now that the circus antics of campaigning are over, investors seem to be betting that Milei is the real deal.   Their change of heart came when he cast aside the focus on dollarization, and its pundits on his team, and recruited political veterans from establishment parties to fill key cabinet positions.  That pragmatic pivot sent the dólar azul, Argentina’s freely floated black market currency, soaring by 17% in less than a week and Argentine ADRs climbed 20-60% in value.  Hedge funds are poised to invest in Argentina’s tiny capital market, realize massive gains, and extract their profits in dollars, once currency controls are lifted.  Vaca Muerta, Argentina’s massive oil & gas field is once again a target of interest for foreign investors.  The country’s federated mining rules historically insulated the sector from Buenos Aires political madness, but miners struggled with capital controls.  A freer financial policy framework will unleash billions into Argentina’s lithium and copper deposits.  Once the Peso is freely floated then investments will come in retail, e-commerce, insurance, construction, and other domestic sectors.

In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.  After the fiscal debacle of fighting COVID, no government in the region has the means to waste or plunder to the degree they did in the past.  Thank goodness for the Fed.

*John Price is Managing Director of Miami-based consultancy, Americas Market  Intelligence

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After the World Cup...
Argentina is facing a difficult economic situation.
22.
DECEMBER
2022
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The Argentine capital, Buenos Aires, witnessed huge celebrations after the victory of the national team in the World Cup, in an achievement that raised the spirits high in the South American country and brought joy to the hearts of people hurt by high prices and the malaise of the economy.
But despite the glare of victory in a thrilling final against France, the grim economic reality is casting a dark shadow over Argentina, with inflation at around 100 percent, tight capital controls, poverty at around 40 percent and a looming fear of default.
The 86-year-old, who was celebrating her country ’ s victory, said: “The World Cup is an overwhelming joy that revives us after suffering a long economic crisis.
But soon we will have to go back to reality and face the situations that burden us every day. ”
Argentina ’ s resounding victory, the first since Diego Maradona lifted the trophy in 1986, sent millions onto the streets to cheer Lionel Messi ’ s national team as a vent of frustration at leaders who have failed to get the economy on track for years.
The crowds were huge and very high.
It has been estimated that between four and five million people filled the streets.
The concourse had to take a shortcut and the players were taken to helicopters to fly over the city.
But after the drunkenness of the victory and its celebrations came the idea and the Argentines returned to reality and its painful realities.
The country, once one of the wealthiest in the world, posted annual inflation of 92.4 percent in November and a record interest rate of 75 percent.
Issues of cash printing, overvaluation of the peso and the decline in foreign reserves are exacerbated.
Investors are concerned that Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who was appointed to fix things in August, is not carrying out enough reforms amid the prospect of a general election late next year that the government fears losing.
Ted Mann, chief equity analyst for emerging markets at Alliance Bernstein, said: “Masa is just trying to address every problem that comes to its head and is very careful not to make any significant reforms before the 2023 election.
Under Massa ’ s leadership, Argentines are exceptional at kicking problems in front of them.
They're better at kicking her than Messi kicking the ball. "
Required Kick
But some Argentines are more optimistic.
Osvaldo Hassan, a 62-year-old trader in Buenos Aires, said: “The World Cup gives us hope and a desire to believe.
"This could be the push we need to build consensus and move the economy forward."
Camilla Gotelli, 25, a marketing professional, said the “historic ” win could boost Argentina by attracting more tourism, creating jobs and strengthening the country ’ s global standing.
A paper from the University of Surrey found that winning the World Cup could give a small boost to a country ’ s economy in the months following the win, helping boost exports.
In the short term, it could also give a boost to leftist President Alberto Fernandez.
His popularity has plummeted due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic woes, despite a new $44 billion deal with the IMF this year.
Carlos Zarate, a 63-year-old trader in the capital, believes this will be in the government ’ s favor for a few days “because it will distract people ”.
As soon as summer in the southern hemisphere is over, "the blow of reality will come."
Last month, ratings agency Moody ’ s criticized Argentina, citing rising central bank debt as a risk to financial stability.
Standard & Poor ’ s has downgraded its rating of Argentina ’ s already struggling local currency bonds to an “undesirable ” rating.
Graham Stock, chief strategist at BlueBay East Management, said he expected positive economic changes from next year ’ s election after a change of government became a rarity after the ruling coalition suffered a crushing defeat in the mid-term last year.
Maria Belén Pereira, 32, an elementary school teacher, said economic changes would not happen overnight and needed the participation of everyone, not just the football team.
"We celebrate because (the team) represents us as a country, but that was the sacrifice of almost 30 people...
For the economy to change, we must all participate. ”
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