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| Central Asia | Afghanistan | Kazakhstan | Kyrgyzstan | Tajikistan | Turkmenistan | Uzbekistan |
News & Events
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Sunday, 24.09.2023
07: 14 Greece on a leash, or How it is used against Russia, - A. Veselov
07: 09 Who will be able to take a place in the new world order, - Masoud Akbari
06: 57 The grain of discord has sprung up in Europe, - Boris Gryzlov
06: 55 Kazakhstan put a barrier on the way of Russian grain to Kyrgyzstan - Victoria Panfilova
05: 00 Lavrov called the conditions for the preservation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
An accomplice?
01: 27 Mass sea of fish occurred in Atyrau region
01: 23 Where will Armenians from Karabakh look for refuge?
The level of depression among young people in Kazakhstan is five times higher than in the world
01: 17 Astana pompously opened another nest of amer-agents - "International School of Journalism"
01: 15 Employers in Russia find it difficult to find a common language with migrants.
Easier with robots?
In Egypt found the sunken and full of treasures the temple of the god Amun and the sanctuary of Aphrodite of the city of Tonis-Heraklion in the Gulf of Abukir
00: 34 Sergey Mirkin: Will the Ukrainians become the new goths
00: 25 In Karaganda, five Uzbeks received prison sentences for kidnapping a citizen of India
00: 04 Kazakhstan will look for new markets for arms supplies
00: 01 Lavrov promises to keep dew peacekeepers in Karabakh.
What the fuck?
Saturday, 23.09.2023
20: 48 Kazakh Satybaldy Dauletalin elected first Secretary General of the Organization of Trade Unions of Turkic States
15: 26 US turns Kazakhstan into new Ukraine in Central Asia - Ainur Kurmanov
14: 56 Kazakh singer Toreali, who lost the coast, was sentenced to community service.
40 hours.
For insulting police officers
14: 50 Le Figaro: The EU found out the reason for its reluctance to help Armenia: it is Baku gas
14: 49 Polish-Ukrainian relations: what went wrong?
14: 47 Why the “Prussian ” car industry has turned into a Chinese, not a Russian
14: 34 The American Conservative: "Not a cent more!"
Americans are tired of keeping Ukraine
14: 27 Kyrgyz Akzhol Makhmudov - two-time world champion in classical wrestling
13: 54 Donbass front.
In the battles near Stelmakhovka burned the first two "best in the world" Swedish tanks Stridsvagn 122
13: 01 India has lost contact with the lunar station “Chandrayaan-3 ”
Black cat between Ankara and Kiev: why Erdogan is slowing down the supply of weapons? - MK
1.1 million residents of Uzbekistan will receive centralized access to drinking water for the first time this year
12: 42 The bombardment of Sevastopol continues.
Shoigu scratches his second ear...
12: 39 Dry!
Water negotiations between the governments of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan take place in Taraz
12: 33 Agronomic-jurist-economist Gauez Nurmukhambetov appointed head of North Kazakhstan region
08: 24 Russian cosmonaut Kononenko arrived on the ISS with a portrait of the President of Turkmenistan
07: 00 Died actress Alagez Salakhova, granddaughter of Tamara Khanum
06: 49 Generous help from USAID *: an old song about sad.
Uzbekistan is offered a bag of poisoned "cookies" - R. Alimova
06: 45 Earth military concerns of the Middle Empire.
Reforms in the Chinese army, - V.Ivanov
06: 36 In Uzbekistan again mass poisoning of children with medicines.
The president himself understands.
06: 33 "Muslims" against the "Black-legged".
Franco-Algerian War: Causes and Situation - Vladimir Dobrin
06: 30 RosAuthorities do not allow mass deportation of migrant workers
The partisan and former President of Italy Giorgio Napolitano has died
Friday, 22.09.2023
16: 52 Lapsus for lapsus.
Frau Berbock continues to entertain the people - Die Welt
16: 47 UkroRaketa arrived at the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet.
Shoigu scratches his ear
15: 46 Washington sanctions against Baku - imitation
13: 29 Kyrgyz Aisuluu Tynybekova became 3-time World Wrestling Champion
12: 43 Washington battle for ATACMS: Biden raises Ukrainian stakes ahead of election
12: 37 Real estate market in Central Asia
12: 35 Kazakh authorities for the first time published the register of "foreign agents", including NGOs and journalists
12: 33 Tajik Man Sentenced to Death in Iranian Mausoleum Attack
12: 31 Will America Displace Russia and China from Central Asia? - Ivan Zuenko
11: 50 Producer Ainagul Tokobaeva appointed director of Kyrgyzfilm National Film Studio
"Decolonization" discourse in Central Asia: who wants to rewrite history?
11: 39 Eximbank shareholder Amirkhanov, who fled to the United States, stole 33 billion tenge from depositors
Iran ’ s Parliament Adopts Hijab and Chastity Law with Up to 10 Years in Prison for Violating Islamic Dress Code
Archive
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CenterAsia |
Who will be able to take a place in the new world order, - Masoud Akbari
07: 09 24.09.2023
Kayhan
Iran
September 23, 2023
“The future is us, and they [Western countries] are the past, ” Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi said in a statement.
Speaking at the UN General Assembly, he stated that the old world order led by the United States is coming to an end, and the new world will look completely different.
“Humanity is entering new horizons of development.
The old centers of power are in decline.
They are the past and the future is us.
I repeat: they are the past, and we are the future "; these words are part of the speech at the 78th session of the UN General Assembly by Ibrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Yes, the old, traditional centers of power are actually in decline.
Recently, the Financial Times, pointing to the unblocking of Iranian assets coinciding with the anniversary of last year ’ s riots, wrote in its report: “The exchange of prisoners (between Iran and the United States) at such a time indicates the failure of Washington ’ s policy in confronting Tehran.
And the continuation of Iran ’ s nuclear progress, along with the Islamic Republic ’ s growing regional influence, is another sign of the West ’ s failed policy toward Iran. ”
American and European politics lack some kind of “anchor ” and“ course of movement ” in relations with Iran.
Western governments have never been able to adopt a balanced, unified and stable strategy on Iran that would seriously limit the activities of the Islamic Republic.
The strategy of the West not only does not pursue any specific goal, but it does not even have a clear framework.
Prior to this, the weekly Economist presented its analysis concerning the release of Iranian property, assets and the agreement on the exchange of prisoners between Iran and the United States.
"The Islamic Republic is gaining the upper hand at the moment," the report said.
On May 26, 2011, two years after the riots and unrest in Iran, Benjamin Netanyahu told the US Congress: “Today, from the Khyber Passage in Pakistan to the Strait of Gibraltar in Morocco, profound transformations are taking place in the world that have shaken everyone and everything.
These upheavals have affected many countries of the world and divided governments, and we all continue to witness these events.
When we talk about these shocks, we immediately recall the Iranian revolution of 1979 (the victory of the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1357 according to the Iranian solar calendar).
We must recognize that once this upheaval has occurred, there is and still is a powerful force that today does not allow us to govern the world as we would like.
At the head of this force is Iran, once created by leader Khomeini, and today, ruled by Supreme Leader Khamenei.
I warn you that these sharp turns of history are still going on.
And today, those who ignore Iran and the danger it harbors have simply buried their heads in the sand.
Since Netanyahu ’ s admission, the enemies of the Iranian nation, led by the United States, have repeatedly fought to prevent the formation of a new world order that replaces the old unipolar world.
Enemies of the new world order, as part of a project aimed at preserving the old world, organized riots in Iran, which were fueled by crude subversive ideas, ranging from the unrest in January 2016, in November 2018, and finally, to the joint project of hybrid war last summer and autumn.
The new global world order is multidimensional and multifaceted.
One example of its manifestations is the important developments in Western Asia.
This includes everything from the collapse of ISIS in Iraq and Syria to the failure of the American project in Yemen, and from the growing crisis in the occupied Palestinian territories to the shameful flight of the United States from Afghanistan.
To this should also be added the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the elimination of the separatist terrorist movement in Iraqi Kurdistan under the coordination of the Iraqi government, the resistance movement in Lebanon and many other events, of which there is no doubt.
The wise Leader of the Revolution and Supreme Leader of Iran said the day before at a meeting with veterans and activists of the Holy Defense: “Iran ’ s inspiring influence in the region and the growth of a culture of resistance to the old world order have caused exhausting screams from the United States and other countries. ”
As former US President Donald Trump said earlier, “We foolishly spent $7 trillion in the Middle East, but as President of the United States, I still have to go to Iraq in complete darkness! ”
Indeed, it was the art of the resistance front that actually destroyed, nullified the $7 trillion United States project, and now, by establishing a new order in the region, it continues to terrify Americans and Zionists.
The current situation in Europe is another facet of the new world order.
Over the past few months, we have all witnessed gross and brazen acts of desecration of the Holy Koran in Europe.
However, according to experts, insults to the Koran are not an active action of the West; rather, it is a passive reaction to the influential actions of Islam to form a new world order.
At present, the world is moving towards spirituality shaped by political Islam, in the correct sense of this phrase, towards religiosity and ethics, and in these trends the Koran and Quranic thoughts and ideas play a central role and make a major contribution.
In fact, Islam is winning the hearts and minds of the world with its progressive power.
On the other hand, experts now believe that Europe is mired in a quagmire because of its own military conflict and the crisis in Ukraine.
Accordingly, an increase in military assistance to Ukraine, ostensibly to strengthen European security, will only lead to even greater instability in eastern Europe and will drag the entire European continent further into the swamp.
In addition to the growing instability caused by the hostilities themselves, Europe is also largely unsuccessfully grappling with the dire economic consequences of the conflict it provoked in Ukraine.
Accordingly, the loss of cheap Russian energy is a serious challenge for Europe.
These are all the problems, the consequences of which we saw last year ’ s “hard winter ”.
And the current situation in America is also one of the main factors in the formation of a new world order.
Recently, the author of Foreign Affairs magazine wrote in an article: “Sanctions against Iran are caused by Washington ’ s helplessness – they are extremely one-sided and one-dimensional.
All of this goes back to the decline in which the United States itself has found itself.
Desperate presidents have fewer and fewer arrows in quivers.
Embargoes imposed on Iran not only expose the decline of the United States, but also accelerate it and constantly worsen the situation. "
Another publication, Foreign Policy, writes in a similar article: “America is in the midst of all sorts of crises caused by a number of problems, from the military crisis in Ukraine to competition with China and the upcoming elections in 2024. ”
The French weekly Nouvelle Observer also wrote in a report: “The United States is forced to make concessions to other countries, including Iran, due to the upheaval caused by the conflict in Ukraine and the collapse of old alliances. ”
The Supreme Leader of the Revolution and the Islamic Republic made a number of important statements at a recent meeting with representatives of the peoples of Sistan, Baluchistan and South Khorasan: "The world is on the verge of transformation...
America ’ s arrogant power has weakened and is getting weaker by the day.
This is one of the main directions of this transformation: the United States and Western countries are weakening.
Their influence in the world is declining, judging by the current indicators of the global economy and interference in the affairs of other countries.
If earlier Washington successfully interfered in the work of various governments, today these adventures only worsen the situation for him.
All of this is true.
For example, the United States used to think of Latin America as its backyard, but recently anti-American governments have come to power in this region one after another.
Moreover, one of the most prominent events in Latin America in recent years has been the shameful failure of the US in its attempted coup against the legitimate government of Venezuela.
Although Washington supported the conspirators by all means, this coup failed.
All the old forces are now in decline.
The growing power and influence of organizations such as the SCO and BRICS are indicators of this decline of the old powers.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization already has nine full member countries, four observer countries and 14 dialogue partner countries.
Today, the SCO covers an area of   more than 35 million square kilometers, that is, about a quarter of the earth's land and 60% of the land of Eurasia, as well as more than 3 billion people of the world's population.
Its member countries account for more than 30 per cent of world GDP.
The total trade of its members now stands at $6.6 trillion, a hundred-fold increase over the past two decades.
It is noteworthy that earlier even the US government applied for observer status of the SCO, but the request was rejected by this organization.
Even more interesting is that the total volume of the economies of the member states of the Shanghai organization is 32% larger than the size of the economy of the entire European Union.
Also, according to the report of the International Monetary Fund, over the past five years, as of the end of 2023, the economic potential of the member countries of the Shanghai organization will exceed the economy of the countries of the G7 group.
As for the BRICS, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, this association is becoming increasingly attractive to other countries due to its economic development and growing geopolitical influence.
And the point here is that America and the West are gradually losing credibility in contrast to this group of countries.
And all this, as well as the growing influence of the SCO and BRICS, is evidence that the modern world is experiencing a very important historical turning point, and the characteristic features of the new world order are becoming more visible every day.
It is also obvious that the new power of the region, Iran, plays a special and undeniable role in the formation of this new world order.
Author: Masoud Akbari
It is banned in Russia as extremist.
InoMedia
Source - inosmi.ru
Permanent address of the article - https: / / centrasia.org / newsA.php? st = 1695528540
News of Kazakhstan
- Working schedule of the head of state
- Maulen Ashimbayev: The law approved by the Senate will allow to take into account the opinions of citizens as much as possible
- Alikhan Smailov held a meeting of the Commission on demonopolization of the economy
- Majilis will consider the bill aimed at the protection of personal data - I reading
EDB ’ s investment in Kazakhstan is growing at a faster pace
- Personnel reshuffles
- Seized unused land should be equitably distributed - S. Zhumangarin
- Foreign Ministers of Kazakhstan and Great Britain discussed topical issues of development of Kazakh-British cooperation
- Statement regarding the company LLP "HENKEL CENTRAL ASIA & CAUCASUS"
- On the verdict of the court
Go to the version with frames
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Content: 72.9 F
Washington D.C.
Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Manipulating the Narrative: How Hamas is Retelling Historic Islamic Battles to Influence the Muslim Community and Reshape Jihadist Ideology

Islamic history encompasses two of the most powerful battles in the collective memory and consciousness of Muslim nations: the Battle of the Trench and the Battle of Hattin. Hamas and its allies from the Brotherhood attempt to portray the October 7 war as a continuation of these religious battles. Recently, narratives from Hamas and Brotherhood theologian scholars have increasingly focused on these two battles, aiming to reshape jihadist philosophy in response to the negative image associated with groups like ISIS and Al-Nusra. This article delves into the profound historical and religious significance of these battles and explores their transformative impact on contemporary jihadist ideology and evolution.

Understanding why Hamas and Brotherhood theologians have resurrected these ancient battles as ideological touchstones amid the protracted Gaza-Israel conflict requires a nuanced examination of their relevance and the enduring implications. By dissecting the historical context and strategic significance of these battles, we can trace the ideological lineage and symbolism that underpin Hamas’s narrative and assess the potential ramifications of its resurgence. To clarify this connection, let’s explore the history of one of the two battles: the Battle of the Trench. In the Islamic narrative and collective memory, this battle holds significant symbolism, particularly in connection with a pivotal event in early Islamic history.

Salman the Persian advised Muslims to dig a trench around Al-Madinah al-Munawwarah, located in Saudi Arabia. Faced with the impending threat of a confederation of Kuffar (polytheists) and Jews, Muslims fortified the city’s defenses by digging a trench, making it challenging for enemy forces to breach.

The Battle of the Trench tells a story of dire living conditions and desperate circumstances. Prophet Muhammad and his companions endured harsh winters, hunger, and fatigue as they worked tirelessly to strengthen their defenses. They faced betrayal from within, as some Jewish tribes in the region sought to undermine the Muslim community’s unity. Despite these challenges, the Muslims remained steadfast in their faith and purpose.

The story continues to show that the Muslims’ perseverance in the face of adversity is a testament to their unwavering commitment to their cause. Despite facing overwhelming odds and being outnumbered by their enemies nearly three to one, their eventual triumph at the end of the trench war symbolizes the triumph of faith and perseverance over adversity. In their current narrative, Hamas seeks to draw parallels between the struggles of Prophet Muhammad and his companions and their own struggle against what they allege as oppression and occupation.

By invoking the spirit of the Battle of the Trench, Hamas aims to position itself as fighting on behalf of Muslim nations against the forces of injustice and tyranny. They see themselves as continuing the legacy of Prophet Muhammad’s struggle against the disbelievers and Jewish tribes, fighting for the liberation and dignity of the Palestinian people. In Quranic text, Surah Al-Ahzab states: ‘And He [Allah] brought down those from the People of the Book who supported the enemy alliance from their own strongholds and cast horror into their hearts. You, believers, killed some, and took others captive’ (33:26).

In contemporary contexts, Hamas uses the symbolism of the Battle of the Trench to inspire and mobilize support for their cause. They portray themselves as the defenders of Islam and the Palestinian people, drawing strength from the example set by Prophet Muhammad and his companions. Through their resilience and determination, they seek to demonstrate that victory is possible, even in the face of overwhelming odds.

The second event in Islamic history is the Battle of Hattin, which stands as a pivotal moment in the struggle between Muslims and the Crusaders, as depicted in Islamic texts, led by the renowned Muslim commander, Saladin. It occurred in 1187 AD near the present-day village of Hattin in the Lower Galilee region of northern Israel, not far from the Sea of Galilee. The story shows that Saladin’s astute leadership and strategic prowess were evident as he orchestrated the battle, depriving the Crusaders of leveraging geography to their advantage. The signing of treaties and the capture of fortresses and cities prior to the battle underscored meticulous planning.

The Islamic texts tell that the Battle of Hattin marked the most significant defeat suffered by the Crusaders during their occupation of Islamic territories in the Levant, resulting in a substantial decline in their power and influence. This pivotal moment opened the gateway to the liberation of large parts of Palestine and presented a significant opportunity to reclaim Jerusalem after years of occupation. Efforts toward liberation began immediately following the Crusader occupation, driven by emerging leaders committed to reclaiming Muslim lands. The battle results led to a resurgence of jihad and contributed to the emergence of a new generation of jihadists and scholars, strengthening the Islamic front against the Crusader threat.

The preparations for the Battle of Hattin extended over ten years, as detailed in Islamic texts. Hamas mirrors this meticulous planning and effort in its construction of tunnels, spanning a decade. This legacy and connection serve as inspiration for Hamas, drawing parallels to Saladin’s example. During Saladin’s efforts to unify the Islamic state for jihad, he initiated a four-year truce with the Crusaders. This respite allowed him to focus on internal affairs, while scholars and preachers emphasized jihad and sacrifice for the sake of Allah. Saladin’s unwavering determination was evident in his solemn demeanor, refraining from laughter while Al-Aqsa remained in captivity. Following the Battle of Hattin, he directed his energies towards liberating Jerusalem, ultimately reclaiming it from Crusader control after 91 years of occupation. His subsequent victories in Tiberias, Acre, Sidon, Beirut, Gaza, Nablus, Ashkelon, and other cities underscored his commitment to a strategy of patience and eventual triumph.

Hamas, religious jihadists, and Brotherhood groups draw connections to the Battle of the Trench and Hattin, emphasizing parallels in their struggle against perceived enemies represented by the U.S. and Israel (Christians and Jews). The symbolism of the Battle of the Trench highlights Prophet Muhammad’s strategic acumen in employing defensive strategies to repel the enemy, showcasing his leadership abilities. Quranic verses, such as Surah Al-Ahzab: ‘He [Allah] has also caused you to take over their lands, homes, and wealth, as well as lands you have not yet set foot on. And Allah is Most Capable of everything’ (33:27), further support these narratives

Similarly, the Battle of Hattin signifies a decade of meticulous preparation, culminating in the unity of previously fragmented Islamic nations. Analyzing Hamas through a psychological lens akin to Prophet Muhammad’s companions has the potential to fuel radicalization and terrorism, which aligns with Hamas’s objectives. The strategy of patience displayed in Hamas’s tactics resonates with Arab youth, particularly in Jordan, Egypt,  and Syria drawing parallels between the group and Prophet Muhammad.

These narratives seek to depict Hamas in a positive light, drawing parallels between the group and Prophet Muhammad to garner public support. The historical significance of the Battle of the Trench and Hattin, alongside Hamas’s contemporary actions, highlights their relevance in Muslim collective memory, emphasizing unity and resilience. Collective memory, especially of these battles, molds Muslims’ identity and informs current actions. Hamas strategically leverages this historical narrative to portray itself as a defender of Islam and a symbol of resistance.

Recognizing parallels between past and present sheds light on Hamas’s motivations, which extend beyond strategic warfare. The group aims to sow disruption in the region, particularly centered around Jerusalem, inspiring other jihadist groups with the possibility of victory.

The overarching message of Hamas is the perpetuation of historical conflicts against both Crusaders and Jews, framing their actions as a continuation of this historical/religious struggle. By positioning themselves as modern-day defenders of Islam against external aggression, Hamas seeks to rally support and justify its ongoing resistance against perceived oppressors, notably Western powers and Israel. Hamas’s narrative not only mobilizes support internally but also targets the outside world, particularly Western audiences, through strategic communication and media outreach. The glorification of acts of patience and desperation sparks a profound contemplation on the meaning and philosophy of jihad among Muslims globally, further rallying support for Hamas’s cause. By portraying historical struggles as testaments to the endurance and faith of the Muslim community, Hamas taps into a deep reservoir of religious sentiment to construct a strong jihadist identity.

Moreover, historical symbolism is strategically employed to legitimize the use of violence in the eyes of the international community, presenting Hamas as a righteous defender against perceived injustices. While Hamas may indeed aim to shape the global discourse surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, suggesting that it seeks to legitimize jihad as a tool of conflict resolution could be contentious. Such a statement might imply that Hamas’s methods are widely accepted or justified, which may not align with prevailing perspectives in many parts of the world. It’s crucial to consider the diverse range of opinions and perspectives on this matter.

Suha Hassen
Suha Hassen, Ph.D. holds a PhD from Al-Nahrain University Medical School in Baghdad City and is currently a Doctoral Candidate at the School of Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, specializing in terrorism and homeland security with a specific focus on Islamist terrorist groups.
Suha Hassen
Suha Hassen, Ph.D. holds a PhD from Al-Nahrain University Medical School in Baghdad City and is currently a Doctoral Candidate at the School of Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, specializing in terrorism and homeland security with a specific focus on Islamist terrorist groups.

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Content: Archive | Countries | Persons | Catalog | News | Discussions | Jokes | Contacts | PDA
| Central Asia | Afghanistan | Kazakhstan | Kyrgyzstan | Tajikistan | Turkmenistan | Uzbekistan |
News & Events
|
Friday, 17.02.2023
18: 32 Another "seismic hysteria" will lead to nothing - Alma Bektenova
17: 44 Aquapolitics of Globalism The world after America, - Mikhail Moiseev
17: 03 Will the “Finnish experience ” solve the problems of education in Uzbekistan?
16: 36 Kazakhstan 's export roundabout, - E.Kosenko
13: 54 Defeat of Bokeikhanov akimat.
Arrests of corrupt officials in Karaganda
13: 42 Azerbaijan-Iran: a new world problem, - katehon.com
13: 15 Migrant rapists push the Germans together - "Vzglyad"
13: 13 The epidemic of losses struck many central banks, - V. Katasonov
13: 11 Iraq in the American trap, - A.Veselov
12: 44 US draws conclusions from conflict in Ukraine and prepares for new war - S. Adamov
11: 49 The state Duma of the Russian Federation banned the use of foreign words.
Is Putin no longer a “president ”?
11: 19 Hungary and France blocked EU sanctions against Rosatom.
They are in Chelyabinsk to drain nuclear waste
10: 54 Trade unions collect one million signatures and threaten to paralyze France
10: 53 Slovak Parliament Declares Russia a ‘ Terrorist State ’
10: 52 Not only weapons: how Pakistan helps Ukraine
10: 45 Balls continue to "shake" America, - Vl.Ovchinsky
10: 44 Benefits of the Gas Union for Kazakhstan and its environs - S.Smirnov
10: 42 Russian elections: chewing gum, - R.Fakhrutdinov
10: 38 Turks vs Blinken: an inappropriate visit
10: 34 The quality of local elites is the main problem and the stopper of Central Asia, - A.Knyazev
09: 25 The newest Japanese rocket H3 could not come off the ground.
At least it didn't explode...
08: 34 The loneliness of Putin.
Forgotten..., - Vladimir Semenko
07: 08 In Russia began testing the latest drone "TrAMP".
Did Biden break down immediately?
01: 20 In Moscow fired grasped migration officials.
Denial of asylum to Latvian anti-fascist writer
00: 59 Sand on teeth: Central Asia needs to cooperate to solve water problem - N.Akmatov
The Guardian: Israeli hackers influenced the election results in dozens of countries
Thursday, 16.02.2023
23: 32 Tokayev held a telephone conversation with Zelensky.
Did you discuss the delivery of turnips and rutabaga?
23: 30 Shocking details told students about pseudo-religious boarding house in Almaty
23: 24 Invisible power.
Who will control the generation of Harry Potter, - A. Fursov
23: 16 Two Uzbeks - fighters of the Russian PMC "Wagner" buried in their homeland
20: 37 Russia does not dare to leave the WTO.
Impotence of the elites, - I. Zhurenkov
20: 34 Turkish Tragedy: At the Edge of the Abyss, - I. Rybin
20: 28 Why the West plays with beaten cards, - Igor Karaulov
18: 26 Washington's "Beijing Frustration."
The United States is experiencing a deep crisis of its policy towards the PRC
16: 10 "Patriots" in camouflage...
Surkov and Sands Memoir on How Russia ’ s Interests Were Merged in Minsk
15: 12 Viruses are all white and fluffy.
KazSenators protect US bio-laboratories on their territory
14: 42 How Russia, Iran and China are friends against the United States - Gevorg Mirzayan
14: 38 Kazakhstan issues coins in honor of Heroes of the Soviet Union M.Mametova and T.Begeldinov
14: 36 Residents of Ust-Kamenogorsk demand to recognize the environmental situation in the city as a disaster
14: 30 by the Third Reich.
"Edelweiss" is the quintessence of the Ukrainian national idea, - I.Skripka
12: 11 Alles kaputt...
Hersch ’ s investigation buries the career and future of the German Scholz government
11: 50 China ’ s Ceec Energy China invests $2!
billion in the construction of photo power plants in Uzbekistan
Friendship does not smell gas: China does not put contracts in one basket
11: 45 Criticizing Ukraine, Hungary goes to the Turkic world - Pyotr Makedontsev
US experts urged to use the lessons of the Ukrainian conflict for a future war with China, - MK
11: 05 The Secretariat of the Cabinet of Ministers of Uzbekistan headed by Shukhrat Sodikov and other appointments
09: 42 "Chernobyl" in Ohio.
The US government is silent about the terrible chemical disaster - Global Times
09: 36 to find the infidels.
It is painful to catch up with the departing train of history, - A.Prokhanov
In the Canadian province of British Columbia allowed (for the first time in the world) heroin, crack and methamphetamine
09: 25 Donbass front.
Eliminated the commander of the British-Israeli PMC Samson - Jonathan Shenkin
08: 55 The secret headquarters of the war with Putin: an absentee report from the anti-Kremlin center, - M. Rostovsky
Archive
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Kazakhstan |
Another "seismic hysteria" will lead to nothing - Alma Bektenova
18: 32 17.02.2023
The earthquake in Turkey has increased the fear of a natural disaster in Almaty.
For today, no one can be sure that his house will withstand serious tremors.
Alma Bektenova, February 16
Breathe deeply
Scientists make traditional soothing assurances, but any sane person understands - at the moment, science can not give an accurate forecast.
Contrary to popular belief, the threat hangs not only over Almaty, but also over the territory from the East Kazakhstan region to Kyzylorda, where earthquakes of 7-9 points can occur.
However, the most active is the Almaty region, there is evidence of this: the Verne earthquake of 1887 and the Kemin earthquake of 1911.
These cataclysms practically wiped the city from the face of the earth.
Immediately after the tragedy in Turkey, Deputy Director of the Institute of Seismology of the Ministry of Emergency Situations Nursarsen Uzbekov once again confirmed that Kazakhstan is shaking constantly.
Over the past five years, about 40,000 earthquakes have been recorded in the country.
In 2018 – 8500, in 2019 – 7800, in 2020 – 9500, in 2021 – 6700, in 2022 – 6900.
However, only 66 of them were felt by people.
The last significant earthquake occurred on December 28, 2022, 190 kilometers from Almaty on the border with Kyrgyzstan and China.
“Just a few days ago, we developed a conclusion on the medium-term forecast of the earthquake in the territory of the Almaty test site, which was transmitted to the authorized bodies.
According to this conclusion, during 2023, a strong earthquake of seven points is not expected in the territory of the Almaty test site, "Nursarsen Uzbekov explained.
According to him, currently the seismic life of our region is at a normal level.
In addition, the activation of the seismic zone around Almaty is not affected by similar events in other regions, for example, the devastating earthquake in Turkey did not affect the likelihood of tremors here.
We are in a very different tectonic region.
The seismologist also refuted the widespread belief that earthquakes in Almaty occur once every 100-150 years.
“Our experts believe that we have such a cyclicity once in 120-130 years, but this does not mean that it is during this period that something should happen.
This is a probability, a tendency that an increase is possible.
The last major earthquakes we had in 1887 and 1911, that is, it took just 120-130 years, but this does not mean that now will come such a moment.
It depends on many processes in the Earth's crust and other factors, "he explained.
In 2020, the Institute compiled new maps of seismomicrozoning of the city.
According to the updated data, the entire territory of the city was assigned to the 9-10-point zone.
At the same time, the 10-point zone mainly covers the entire southern or upper part of the city, conditionally along Abai Street.
To the north or below is a zone of 9 points.
In each of these parts, depending on the ground conditions, there are zones with greater or lesser seismicity.
According to scientists, the greatest threat is the Zaili fault.
It stretches along Al-Farabi Avenue, Republic Square, the intersection of Abay Avenue and Kunaev Street, along Kazybek bi Street, through the Park of Culture and Rest to the east.
There is also the Northern Rift running from the west through Lake Sayran, along Kabanbay Batyr Street to the northeast.
The Almaty fault passes through the intersection of Sain Street and Rayymbek Avenue, along Ryskulov Street to Seifullin Street, then through the territory in the north of Medeu District.
The North-West fault stretches along the western border of the city through the villages of Kok-Kainar, Ozhet, Karasu and further to the north-east.
By the way, the question about the probability of a strong earthquake in Almaty last year was answered by the Minister of Emergency Situations Yuri Ilyin.
“We have a forecasting commission, which meets at the Institute of Seismology, we give a short-term forecast.
All of us should understand that, unfortunately, the earthquake was 100% predicted only once in the history of mankind – in the PRC in the 70s.
Japanese specialists, including having high-tech equipment and high scientific potential, refused to predict earthquakes and installed a system for detecting foci - precursors of an earthquake, "the minister said.
“The most important is reliable seismically resistant construction, which is also demonstrated by our colleagues in countries such as Japan, which are most susceptible to seismicity, with large earthquakes they have single death factors, this suggests that it is the increased requirements, which are toughened in the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan, that are the requirements for seismically resistant construction, ” he explained.
We add that seismic surveys are regularly conducted in Almaty.
It's too late to be afraid
It is characteristic that in the imperial and Soviet periods the foothills were never built up, there were only cottages and similar temporary light dwellings.
In Almaty, high-rise development was considered undesirable, the only exception was the hotel "Kazakhstan".
However, our predecessors caution did not help much.
The so-called Verne disaster in May 1887 claimed the lives of 332 people (at that time about 30,000 people lived in the city).
According to eyewitnesses, the victims could have been more, but the adults at this time were already on the street, at work.
The building was mostly wooden, but about 2,000 brick buildings were also damaged.
We have to admit that today we are not far from the problems of our ancestors.
Last year, the Institute of Seismology said that together with the DES is working on a project to install an early warning system for strong earthquakes.
Along the perimeter of the city within a radius of no more than 100 kilometers, it is necessary to place a network of seismic stations that will record the waves of strong earthquakes and transmit signals whose speed will be higher than the speed of arrival of the seismic wave.
This idea was also voiced by President Tokayev.
Within the framework of this project, it is planned to install 28 seismic stations of the early warning system by 2025.
The Institute noted that today the technical equipment of seismological stations located in dangerous regions of the country does not meet modern requirements.
We are lagging behind both in the number of equipment and in its quality.
“Accurate earthquake forecasting and early warning is vital for Almaty.
I instruct by 2025 to complete the installation of 28 seismic stations with their subsequent integration with the early warning system of Kyrgyzstan.
In addition, the city should establish the work of integrated warning systems with the ability to transmit voice messages about emergency situations, "the president said at a meeting with residents of the metropolis last year.
And just the other day, akim Yerbolat Dossayev assured that in 2021 a new map of seismic microzoning was approved, all faults were noted in it.
In 2017-2018, the authorities conducted a seismic audit, this year a similar event is planned.
"In the new Master Plan, all the necessary requirements for seismics are taken into account, including new faults: everything above Abai Street is 10 points, below is in the zone of nine points," Yerbolat Dossayev said.
Experts differ on the sustainability of Almaty houses.
One thing is clear – the last 30 years the building has been chaotic.
For example, Pavel Savranchuk, a member of the Union of Architects of the USSR and Kazakhstan, believes that residents of Khrushchev, who still prevail in the city, should be afraid moderately.
In particular, the recently mentioned 4-5-storey panel prefabricated residential buildings of the 60-70s are among the most earthquake-resistant due to their design features.
Moreover, they are more stable than the buildings of the next generation of construction - frame-stone houses of 1970-2000, their designs were made using a single industrial technology by flow method at house-building plants with fairly good quality control, "he said in an interview with Tengri.
However, the architect immediately added a spoon of tar: in recent years, unauthorized redevelopment of apartments was carried out, often with the dismantling of part of the load-bearing walls.
This process is poorly controlled, in addition, do not forget that small businesses almost everywhere converted the first floors of buildings for shops and cafes, which could not but affect their sustainability.
"According to the new construction, it can be said that, of course, it is designed on the basis and taking into account the regulatory requirements for earthquake-resistant construction, accompanied by special calculations.
It's in theoretical design.
But at the stage of implementation, the hope is only for the conscientiousness of the developer, thanks to the same moratorium on scheduled inspections by state agencies and a simplified procedure for accepting objects into operation.
In seismically safe construction, there are many methods and processes, but the most important is quality control, "Pavlo Savranchuk added.
Other experts were more pessimistic.
The quality of construction in the metropolis is not a matter of fact, but of faith.
What materials and what quality were used by private companies, masterly able to "negotiate" with responsible persons, no one will answer.
Theft flourished at some sites, some were abandoned in the 80s, quietly rusted, and in the 90s and the natives they were completed at an accelerated pace and sold.
In addition, there is a certain percentage of frankly decrepit "stalinok", and the process of renovation of the Almaty authorities and developers understand very peculiar.
Finally, there are glaring examples of new homes falling apart without any jolts.
In particular, recently tilted houses in the neighborhood of Algabas, they poured pieces of decoration and structures.
According to experts, citizens should not rely on the akimat, KSK and developers.
If you want to know exactly the quality of your home - order an examination yourself.
However, this is a very expensive procedure, among other things, the consciousness of some citizens also raises questions.
As mentioned above, the Almaty foothills are a very dangerous place, but they were built for the sake of large business and thirsty for elite apartments.
Today, residents of individual elite residential complexes are beginning to realize that their houses are on fault lines, and there is nothing you can do about it.
However, judging by seismic maps, simple "Khrushchev" is also in a potential disaster zone.
We built, we built...
Last year, KazNIISA employees gave Informburo.kz a curious study.
The number of high-rise new buildings in Almaty is increasing, literally every month the city is shaken by scandals related to violations of building standards, rallies are held.
Nearby, old buildings that have exhausted their service life live out their age.
The hysteria that arose after the earthquake in Turkey, best proves: the townspeople do not believe that their homes will stand.
Experts prove that if the earthquake destroyed the building, then 70% of the fault of the builders, the remaining interest - on the conscience of seismologists, designers and those who used the building.
Also, life or death can depend on the characteristics of the soil on which the house is built.
According to the study, in the 1990s, an expert assessment showed that 19% of residential buildings are not earthquake-resistant.
Then the number of deaths with potential strong tremors was fixed at the level of 75 thousand people.
In 2008, a survey of the fund showed that at least 30% of houses are already at risk, doubts were caused by the same number of social infrastructure facilities (schools, kindergartens, hospitals).
In 2017, 7,027 facilities were inspected (6,493 residential buildings, 534 schools, kindergartens, hospitals, polyclinics).
In 2018, 3,131 objects were surveyed (1,645 residential buildings, 1,486 administrative buildings, shopping centers, sports facilities, kindergartens, sanatorium-resort buildings, recreation and tourism buildings, polyclinics).
According to scientists, there are 160 buildings on tectonic faults.
Also in recent years, the companies have been developing areas of the eastern part of the city, the territory of "Tatarka" and "Kompot".
But it is not by chance that they have not been built high-rises for the last 100 years.
According to scientists of the Kazakh Research Institute of Soil Science, due to the peculiarities of the state of the soil and soils in these areas, it was never recommended to build high-rise multi-storey houses.
Do not forget about the villages.
Indigenous Almaty people well remember the huge boulders left for the edification of their descendants.
For the sake of new LCD and general "ennobling" boulders were removed, but the threat of mudflows remained.
But the problem that arose on Lake Sayran, a dozen kilometers from the old parts of the metropolis.
Residents of the residential complex "Ushtobe", as well as the residential complex "Kausar", the residential complex "Altyn Bulak 1", the residential complex "29 quarter" and the residential complex "Altyn Bulak 2" have repeatedly complained about cracks and cracks in houses and wrote letters to the editorial office of various media, hoping to get a response from the authorities.
According to experts, the soil around the lake is also not favorable for the construction of skyscrapers, but today the water behind the houses is no longer visible.
A separate panic this season caused awareness: many houses in the southern capital were built by Turkish companies.
Meanwhile, the world saw firsthand how in the homeland of those who build faster and cheaper domestic firms, houses were formed like card houses.
As Eraly Shokbarov, managing director of KazNIISA, explained to the Law, so-called slit bricks are used in Turkey.
In Kazakhstan, filling the masonry with slotted bricks in seismically dangerous areas is prohibited, since they can quickly break down in an earthquake.
“In Turkey, the filling mainly comes from brickwork.
To date, no high-rise building has been built with brick filling, we do not have it.
Kazakhstan is the only country in the CIS that constantly conducts vibrodynamic full-scale tests.
In Turkey, the construction of housing is mainly a frame system with brick filling.
We have only old Soviet houses like this.
We use new structural schemes - wall structures.
If Turkey also had wall structures, like ours, houses would not fall, ” said Yeraly Shokbarov.
In Kazakhstan, the standards for the observance of seismic safety of residential buildings are harmonized with the European base of standards, they are periodically reviewed and improved.
All foreign companies are required to comply with domestic regulations.
In general, experts believe that if the houses are designed taking into account a possible strong earthquake and passed state examination, then they should be earthquake-resistant.
Will spells and prayers help?
Magic spells about "theoretical seismic stability" should probably help Almaty residents calm down.
But over the years, people are increasingly protesting against thoughtless construction.
Olzhas Suleimenov spoke very aptly about the risks last year.
“The earthquake that happened in our city at the beginning of the last century, can happen again.
It seems that our government and akims have forgotten about it.
Recently, I walked through Al-Farabi and looked at the new blocks of glass skyscrapers.
I thought that if it suddenly shakes, people will try to run out into the street to escape, but for them there will simply be no free space and they will be filled with debris.
Selling plots of land for dense construction, no one thought about it, but thought only about how to fill their pockets, ” said the poet and public figure.
And in 2021, the press distributed a shocking message from the akimat of Almaty, which tried to knock out funds from the government for the seismic stability program.
"Having studied the data of the analysis of the stability of buildings in conditions of frequent earthquakes, we can say that with strong tremors of 7-8 points in Almaty, about 30% of all buildings can collapse.
The total loss of population will be from 370 to 385 thousand people.
The projected damage from the earthquake of 10 points in money may amount to 2 trillion 479 billion tenge, "Deputy Akim Serik Kusainov said at the time.
Sooner or later, the "seismic hysteria" in social networks will subside - until the next time.
In terms of construction, obviously, everything will remain the same.
Not by the day, but by the hour will grow "men", SMEs will continue to knock out the supporting structures on the first floors.
Changes are possible if residents begin to actively defend their right not to be buried under the rubble.
Source - turanpress.kz
Permanent address of the article - https: / / centrasia.org / newsA.php? st = 1676647920
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Title:

Content: Li Hui ’ s visit to Russia: The world needs Lu Zhonglian
Author: United Morning Post
Published: Updated:
Who can oppose persuasion and promotion? Even if Li Hui's first round of westbound travel has not achieved concrete results, it is a good start.
On March 10 this year, Saudi Arabia and Iran suddenly announced in Beijing that they had decided to resume diplomatic relations.
Prior to this, the work of persuading and promoting talks behind the scenes of this Chinese Lu Zhonglian was completely unnoticed by the Western media.
But since then, persuasion and facilitation have proved to be fruitful, and it has clearly established itself as a new benchmark for China ’ s diplomacy.
Previously, on February 21, Beijing released the "Global Security Initiative Concept Document", a few days later released the "China's position on a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis" document. On April 26, it was announced that senior diplomat and former ambassador to Russia Li Hui will be China's special representative for Eurasian affairs, starting from May 15, to visit Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany and Russia, effectively provoking the heavy task of mediating the Russian-Ukrainian war.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry described Li ’ s trip as “an attempt to persuade and promote peace talks and make China ’ s contribution to promoting a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis. ”
The Russian war has been going on for more than a year.
This is not only a war between Russia and Ukraine, but also a proxy war, so mediation is not easy, but not necessarily a futile effort.
At a time when Sino-US relations are drawing a crossbow, China ’ s vigorous promotion of persuasion and negotiation diplomacy can be seen as a kind of coalescing strategy to counter the cross-straits strategy of encirclement of China (the Indo-Pacific Treaty).
Therefore, both Lu Zhonglian and Suqin figure.
In addition to the Sino-Russian joint, form a new circle of like-minded friends.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Aleksander Kuleba attends a meeting with China ’ s Special Representative for Eurasia, Li Hui, in Kiev on May 16. (Information Office of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs / Reuters)
From this point of view, the strategy has worked well so far, and the resumption of relations between the two countries is a major achievement.
In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, efforts to persuade and promote peace have also begun to receive responses from other countries. Brazilian President Lula, who visited China in April, believes that China may have the “greatest global ” role in promoting peace.
At the same time, Brazil is also seeking other countries with good relations with Russia and Ukraine to create favorable conditions for an armistice and peace. Lula also criticized the United States for never advocating peace and still working with Europe to “arm Ukraine and foment war. ”
On May 16, while meeting with visiting Chinese Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, President of South Africa Ramaphosa revealed that he, on behalf of the leaders of six African countries (South Africa, Senegal, Uganda, Egypt, the Republic of the Congo, and Zambia), presented to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky the proposal for peace in Africa in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and will send a delegation to contact with Russia and Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov later confirmed that a peace mission of the six heads of state would visit Moscow in June or July.
UN Secretary-General Stephen Dujarric also confirmed at a daily press conference that Ramaphosa had telephoned Secretary General Antonio Guterres to inform him of the peace initiative.
The above China position paper lists 12 propositions: 1) Respect the sovereignty of all countries; 2) Abandon Cold War thinking; 3) Ceasefire and Stop War; 4) Initiate and Negotiate; 5) Resolve the Humanitarian Crisis; 6) Protect Civilians and Prisoners of War; 7) Maintain the Security of Nuclear Power Plants; 8) Reduce Strategic Risks; 9) Safeguard Food Transport; 10) Stop Unilateral Sanctions; 11) Ensure Supply Chain; 11) Promote War Later rebuilt.
Article 12 is more of a declaration of principle, for example, as Article 2 says, “There is no simple solution to complex problems. ”
We should adhere to a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security concept, focus on the long-term stability of the world, promote the construction of a balanced, effective and sustainable European security structure, oppose the establishment of national security on the basis of the insecurity of other countries, prevent the formation of confrontation, and jointly maintain peace and stability in the Eurasian continent.
These broad principles are in the interest of all peace-loving nations, and the question is, how can they be implemented?
On May 26, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with China ’ s special envoy for Europe and Asia, Li Hui, in Moscow. (Russian Foreign Ministry / Reuters)
Only China has the ability to intervene.
Therefore, it is not surprising that the media in Western countries immediately poured cold water on Beijing.
Deutsche Welle quoted comments in the German-language media as saying it was a Chinese diplomatic show.
“To date, China has not even made it clear what specific understanding it has for safeguarding Ukraine ’ s territorial integrity, let alone that senior Chinese officials or Xi Jinping would urge Russia to withdraw its troops. ” But it is doubtful whether politicians in European countries will do the same.
Because, since the outbreak of the war, Europe has only suffered from the loss, and has not received the slightest benefit, it is the mute who eats the yellow rice.
To be sure, they all want a quick end to the war, or a temporary cease-fire and peace talks to give them breathing room.
Now, apart from China, which country can exert some influence on Russia?
Poor countries, especially some in Africa, suffering from broken supply chains, such as food and fertilizer, also want an early end to the war, but they have little power to dictate the situation.
Of course, Beijing is well aware of the current predicament facing the world, and will certainly make full use of the opportunity to play its role and strive for the greatest national interests.
Who can object to persuasion and negotiation? Even if Li Fai ’ s first round of westbound travel did not achieve concrete results, it was a good start.
This should not be expected by ordinary people, the cessation of war and talks have been so easy. All the cessation negotiations in history have been protracted tug-of-war, and the process is often to fight, talk and fight.
But in any case, to negotiate between the two sides, it is generally necessary for someone to mediate, which is what we understand as Lu Zhonglian's role, basically to act as a peacemaker.
Apart from China, which country can play an important role?
The Warring States period Qi Guozhonglian, known for his extraordinary lobbying skills. (wikipedia)
We usually only think of Lu Zhonglian as a peacemaker, in fact, the record of Lu Zhonglian is not so simple, he defends people without asking for anything in return, not only is he bold, resourceful, but also has the righteousness and style of a warrior, which is a rare breed of human beings.
The most popular thing is that he did not obey the Emperor Qin, and took practical action to stop the tyrannical state of Qin from annexing the nations.
Today's world and China's history of the Warring States era of course can not be compared, since the Second World War there has been a United Nations, mainly to formulate international rules, mediation of countries' disputes.
But in the case of Russia, the United Nations is powerless.
The United Nations is basically controlled by the five permanent members of the Security Council, namely China, Russia, France, Britain and the United States, who have veto power.
In fact, the Russian-Ukrainian war mainly involves Russia and the United States. Now, China and Russia and the United States and Britain have formed two camps, and the United States has also shown that it wants to permanently weaken Russia militarily, so the mediation work must be complicated and difficult.
The United States, Britain and France in the P5 have been tied together by NATO, and only China is considered to be the "outside" side in the war, so there are conditions to play Lu Zhonglian.
A building hit by a drone in Kiev, Ukraine, was badly damaged on May 30, 2023. (Reuters)
In any case, in this troubled world, it is always good to have someone willing to act as Lu Zhonglian and deserve the strong support of all peace-loving countries.
After tens of thousands of young lives have been sacrificed on the battlefield, and after hundreds of millions of dollars of armaments have been consumed on the battlefield, the public opinion will gradually change and the opportunity for peace talks will finally appear.
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that with China ’ s intervention, the Russian-Ukrainian war may reach a turning point, and peace talks are expected to begin by the end of this year.
Of course, this is only Kissinger's personal judgment, a swallow can not achieve a spring, but no one seems to have predicted that China can pull the two deadly enemies of Saudi Arabia and Iran together and shake hands.
It is also worth noting that with the upcoming presidential election next year, there may also be positive and favorable changes in the political and civil conditions in the United States.
There is a voice in the United States that the economic and military constraints facing the United States today are far greater than at the end of the Cold War.
The United States is no longer invincible, and now it has real adversaries, especially China, and it faces severe economic challenges at home, making diplomatic choices.
The United States must accept the fact that the world has changed dramatically over the past 40 years.
Therefore, can we have optimistic expectations for China and other countries to persuade and promote talks?
The writer is Ng Chun-kang, a former journalist in Singapore and a former member of Parliament.
This article is authorized by the United Morning Post.

Title:

Content: Xi Jinping ’ s Visit to Saudi Arabia, Biden ’ s Diplomacy Frustrated Again, Can the U.S. Adapt to a Multipolar World?
Author: Ye Dehao
Published: Updated:
After months of rumors, and last week Saudi Arabia began inviting unspecified media interviews, China ’ s Foreign Ministry finally confirmed on December 7 that Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the first China-Arab Summit in Riyadh from 7 to 10 and pay a state visit to Saudi Arabia.
The state visit, described as the most exclusive diplomatic event in Riyadh since US President Donald Trump took office in 2017 with Saudi Arabia as his first visit, is expected to completely match Joe Biden ’ s low-key trip to Saudi Arabia in July this year.
According to Saudi sources, King Salman ’ s invitation to Xi is to strengthen the historical and strategic partnership between the two sides and will sign a nearly $30 billion cooperation plan.
Saudi officials also specially published an article on the history of Saudi-China relations, pointing out that the two countries have had close relations for 80 years, and this era retrospectively aims to explain to the United States that Saudi-China relations are as profound as the traditional “oil-for-security ” relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States after World War II and since the Cold War.
This state visit once again highlighted in a more specific way that “the United States is no longer Saudi Arabia ’ s only one, ” which has historical coincidences and the inevitability of the times.
U.S. Democratic Party and Saudi Arabia relations difficult to repair
On the one hand, the US Democratic Party has become more and more ideologically dominant in recent years, and has gradually lost the spirit of pragmatic diplomacy.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is, of course, on the side of “autocracy. ”
This constitutes a fundamental contradiction between the US Democratic government and the Saudi regime, making the US-Saudi relationship an extension of bipartisan politics in the US – only the Republicans can cooperate wholeheartedly with the Saudis.
The killing of Saudi dissident journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi embassy in Turkey in 2018 has become an irreparable rift between the US Democratic Party and the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman.
Khashoggi disappeared after entering the Saudi Embassy in Istanbul, Turkey on October 2, 2018, and was later confirmed to have been killed. (AP)
During the campaign, looking at the impending “oil summit ” under climate change and the difficulty of Saudi Arabia leaving the US military umbrella, Biden made it clear that he would treat Saudi Arabia as a“ pariah ”, and refused to communicate with Mohammed at the beginning of his term, instead fighting with the elderly King Salman to meet the demands of voters in the Democratic Party who attach importance to universal values.
Biden also released the confidential report that US intelligence agencies found that Crown Prince Mohammed ordered Khashoggi to be killed, in contrast to the "unethical" Trump who ignored the Khashoggi incident.
From the beginning, the US-Saudi relationship entered a frozen state.
The Russian-Ukrainian War, Oil Battle and Biden ’ s “Negative Accomplishment ”
The accidental development of this kind of history has been broken by the accidental development of another history.
The Russian-Ukrainian war that broke out at the end of February this year pushed up global energy prices, and as the West gradually sanctioned Russian energy exports, the Saudi-led oil producers increased supply to fill the energy gap in Russia, and even compressed Russian energy revenues.
This constitutes an important bargaining chip for the Saudis to negotiate with the Biden administration.
After the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Saudi Arabia remained neutral and did not stand in line with the United States. Biden reportedly tried to lobby Saudi Arabia and other countries to increase production, but the Saudi authorities refused to answer the phone.
Faced with months of high oil prices, Biden finally decided to put aside ideological insistence, go back to pragmatic diplomacy, regardless of domestic criticism, in July to visit Saudi Arabia, nominally to visit Israel and then to Saudi Arabia to attend the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit, and then "just happened" to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed, but in fact, this is his personal US presidency of the crown prince. It is hoped that the latter will be able to increase oil production.
U.S. President Joe Biden arrives in the Red Sea city of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on July 15.
He is pictured punching Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed at Salam Palace. (AP)
According to US media reports, the diplomatic performance came from a behind-the-scenes deal between the US and Saudi Arabia.
The New York Times said that the “perception ” behind Biden ’ s visit was that Saudi Arabia would increase oil production by 750,000 barrels per day, followed by an additional 500,000 barrels per day for the UAE.
However, seeing through Biden ’ s inability to do anything with Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed can be seen playing with Biden: OPEC + decided to increase production by 100,000 barrels per day in August, and cut production by 100,000 barrels per day in September, while OPEC + cut production by 2 million barrels per day in October at its first post-pandemic meeting in Vienna.
Biden, who had no face before the midterm elections, was, of course, furious.
White House spokesman Karine Jean-Pierre directly criticized OPEC + for joining Russia, and White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby pointed the finger at Saudi Arabia, saying it “forced ” other OPEC small countries to cut production to“ increase Russian revenues and undermine the effectiveness of [Western] sanctions. ”
Biden himself has repeatedly said that Saudi Arabia will bear the "consequences" of this, and initiated a review of US-Saudi relations.
However, as NBC recently reported, no progress has been made on the review, and U.S. officials have admitted that there is no viable option for Saudi Arabia, "people recognize that if Saudi Arabia loses, the Gulf loses, and we need this security partnership."
And of course, Biden is in the middle of it.
During his visit to Saudi Arabia in July, he said: “We will not leave, we will not leave a hole that China, Russia or Iran can fill. ”
In fact, after the "oil" failed to face, Biden continued to act in favor of Mohammed, who was recently officially appointed as Saudi Prime Minister, to show the court that the federal government believes that Muhammad has sovereign immunity, and ultimately the Khashoggi civil lawsuit against him ended.
On August 31, 2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed met with officials from both sides ahead of the G20 summit in Hangzhou. (Reuters)
"Oil for security" has become a historical phenomenon.
The problem is that, as the times dictate, the fact that the United States "does not leave" does not mean that there is no hole in the Gulf that other countries can fill.
The essence of America ’ s 80-year alliance with Saudi Arabia is “oil for security. ”
However, the two sides of this exchange are empty.
On the one hand, with the development of shale oil extraction technology in the United States, the United States itself has become the world's largest oil producer, and the United States' imports of Saudi crude oil and petroleum products have fallen to a low level not seen in nearly 40 years, and the two countries have become a competitive relationship in the global oil market.
By contrast, fast-growing China has become the largest buyer of Saudi oil and Saudi Arabia ’ s largest trading partner.
The relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, based on the oil trade, has changed dramatically.
Saudi Arabia 's crude oil export data for 2020 shows that China accounts for a quarter of its crude oil exports. (OEC)
On the other hand, after 20 years of failed wars in Afghanistan and the Iraq War, which left no name, no cause, and no doubt about the outcome, plus the geopolitical "Indo-Pacific turn" of the United States, the value of the security umbrella of the United States has long been greatly reduced.
Under the “protection ” of the United States, the Iranian-backed Houthis have repeatedly made sporadic attacks on Saudi Arabia in recent years, and the Saudis have failed to stop the expansion of the Houthis in Yemen. In 2019, Saudi Arabia was attacked by the Houthis, and the Saudis pointed out that it was the work of Iran.
By the beginning of this year, the Houthis had launched their first deadly attack on the United Arab Emirates, and the colourful White House had likewise done nothing.
Actions are more practical than words, and no matter how much Biden insists that the United States will not leave, the United States is actually on its way out of the Middle East.
With the trend of renewable energy development, "oil for security" itself has become an outdated historical product, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries need a new development in the post-oil era.
The United States has no strategic response.
In contrast, China, which attaches importance to different aspects of diplomatic relations, has naturally become an option for Saudi Arabia. In addition to the oil trade relationship, the two sides have continued to cooperate in surveillance technology, ballistic missiles, drones, 5G infrastructure and other projects in recent years.
U.S. President Joe Biden (fourth from left) leads a delegation to Saudi Arabia on July 15, 2022 to attend a working meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (not pictured) and other officials at the Al Salam Royal Palace. (AP)
During Biden ’ s visit in July, although cooperation with Saudi Arabia was raised on 5G and other infrastructure projects, the belated United States has lost the opportunity to redefine the relationship in a new era.
However, from the current situation, the relationship between China and Saudi Arabia must have its upper limit. Although the Wall Street Journal reported in March this year that Saudi Arabia is considering using the Renminbi as an oil settlement, the recent wind from Saudi officials seems to indicate that this will not be part of Xi ’ s visit to Saudi Arabia.
And the close relationship between China and Iran, and even Saudi Arabia ’ s long-term dependence on US military equipment, also determine that the security cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia is still far superior to the security relationship between China and Saudi Arabia.
In other words, the US Democratic government and Saudi Arabia will maintain at least the basic alliance between the two countries with a “face and heart ” attitude.
But in any case, this visit to Saudi Arabia by Xi Jinping is also the second slap that Crown Prince Mohammed slapped on Biden ’ s face – after all, for the United States, Russia is an immediate challenge, China is a long-term challenge, but as an “ally ” Saudi Arabia is a high profile for the two.
Biden ’ s inability to do anything for Saudi Arabia and Saudi ’ s willingness to accept China are in fact a microcosm of the global trend toward multipolarity.
In this new world, the United States will no longer have a say in all areas of the world, and different countries will pursue policies that do not suit the interests of the United States.
In this situation, the United States has no choice but to force it to accept.

Title:

Content: From the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the Red Sea crisis: this is the Middle East rift in the new era
Author: Liu Yanting
Published: Updated:
From 2023 to 2024, reconciliation and conflict in the Middle East are linked to one country: Iran.
The first is reconciliation. In March 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced the resumption of diplomatic relations in Beijing, which means different things to the two countries: for Saudi Arabia, it is a passive acceptance of the fact that Iran is expanding; for Iran, it is a confirmation of the “Arab Spring ” 10-year game of geopolitical victory.
Therefore, after the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries, a series of changes in the situation appeared in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia gradually moderated its interaction with Syria, and further promoted the ceasefire talks in Yemen, because these two regions have basically been infiltrated by Iran, and the unwilling Saudis do not want to be entangled anymore. And...
And then there is conflict.
As mentioned earlier, the three major civil wars triggered by the “Arab Spring ” have entered a stalemate, and the parts involved in the Shai struggle have no more heat. As such, the Middle East should be expected to usher in a peaceful 2024, but it is not expected that there will be another wave due to Iran and Israel: Tehran has mobilized the old Israeli-Palestinian conflict structure, using Hamas to flash Israel, interrupting the process of diplomatic relations.
Later, as Israel attacked Gaza and blood flowed, Iran created tensions in the Red Sea, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, prompting frequent actions by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Houthi Movement, Hezbollah, and pro-Iranian militias, which were its own vassals, to escalate regional confrontation.
On December 15, 2023, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Foreign Office of the CPC Central Committee, met with delegations from the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia and Iran in Beijing. (Photo of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
During this period, a little wind and haste will lead to the discussion of the "Middle East War".
For example, on January 3, at the ceremony marking the fourth anniversary of the death of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani, an explosion in Iran that killed 91 people, "Islamic State" announced responsibility the next day, but because Iran once claimed responsibility for the United States and Israel, many analysts worry that the "US-Iran war" is about to start.
In the meantime, the rift in the Middle East in a new era has been revealed: the structure of the struggle between Israel and the Arab countries has weakened, and even if the Arab countries do not fully establish diplomatic relations with Israel, they are unwilling to become involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; instead, the anti-American and anti-Israeli alliances with Iran as the core are playing games with Israel, the United States and their regional allies. And...
And this accumulation of mobilization energy is largely the result of Iran ’ s continued expansion and Saudi Arabia ’ s forced acceptance.
In short, the new Middle East rift and the "great reconciliation" mentioned in the author's previous observation are on the surface: the Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia have reduced their power to contain Iran, and Turkey has coexisted with Iran in northern Syria.
In the process, Iran has replaced the Arab countries as the real voice of the Palestinian resistance, and has undoubtedly been the biggest winner of the so-called Arab Spring.
On November 19, 2023, Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei visited a missile during an exhibition of achievements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Air and Space Force. (Reuters)
Forming of "Resistance Axis"
Looking at the current geopolitical layout of Iran in the Middle East in 2024, the “Axis of Resistance ” is the core of everything.
This strategy can be summed up as follows: Under the overall plan of the “export revolution ”, Iran will cultivate agents in various geothermal hotspots in the Middle East, build a strategic buffer against Iran, and encircle potential geopolitical rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The initial promotion and implementation of this layout relies on the aforementioned protagonist of the memorial ceremony: Sulaimani.
After Ali Khamenei became Iran ’ s supreme leader in 1989, the Quds Force began to undertake the strategic task of “exporting the revolution ”, so Sulaimani took over as commander of the Holy City Brigade in 1998, first strengthened cooperation with Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to build the party as the northern front of the“ Shia Crescent ” against Israel. The encirclement of the north was the first step in Sulaimani's formation of the "axis of resistance".
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi meets with visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani on November 6, 2023.
(Reuters)
The second step was to take advantage of the Iraq War (2003-2011).
In order to prevent Iraq from becoming a front-line base for the United States to attack Iran, Suleimani supported pro-Iranian militias such as the Mahdi Army, which cooperated with the Revolutionary Guard and the Hezbollah for a long time to successfully create a situation for Iran in the Iraq chaos created by the United States. Khamenei, for example, has repeatedly met with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
As a result, Sulaimani successfully used the window of opportunity of the United States invasion of Iraq, allowing Iranian forces to infiltrate Iraq in a big way, and further cozying up to Hamas in Gaza.
The third step is to take advantage of the decade-long chaos of the Arab Spring.
The first is the Syrian Civil War in 2011, in which Iran formed multiple Shia militias in Syria to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad and strengthen its control of Syria, and even sent the Revolutionary Guard directly into Syria; followed by the “Islamic State ” crisis in 2014, in which Iran took the opportunity to strengthen its deployment in Iraq and began coordinating the“ resistance axis ” of transnational warfare; Then came the Yemeni civil war, which was triggered by the "Arab Spring". Iran strongly supported the Houthi armed forces, planted the seeds of unrest in the southern part of Saudi Arabia, and also had the ability to interfere with the red sea channel.
Basically, when Suleimani was assassinated in January 2020, the “resistance axis ” was deployed in many parts of the Middle East, opening up strategic depth for Iran and giving Tehran at least six strategic pawns in the Middle East: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Houthi forces in Yemen, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, and pro-Iranian militias in Syria.
Overall, not only have two northern fronts been completed against Israel, but also a north-south encirclement of Saudi Arabia.
Iranian citizens display the photo of Qassem Soleimani, Supreme Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, on January 4, 2020. (Reuters)
When Soleimani ’ s deputy, Esmail Qaani, took over the Holy City Brigade, he began to strengthen the coordination of the six strategic pieces, which can be seen from the changes in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
During Operation Cast Lead in 2008, Operation Pillar of Defense in 2012, and Operation Protective Edge in 2014, pro-Iranian forces in Lebanon and Syria fired only a few rockets sporadically. Since visiting the joint operation room set up by the Revolutionary Guard for Hamas and Hezbollah, and observing the intelligence sharing and logistics cooperation between the two sides, the pro-Iranian armed forces in Lebanon and Syria have also continued to fire rockets during the conflict and created tension on the border.
In October 2023, after the Hamas shelling of Israel, Iran mobilized pro-Iranian forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and it is even more alarming than in 2021: Hezbollah in Lebanon moves almost daily, pro-Iranian forces in Iraq and Syria also attack local US forces, and for the first time, Houthi forces in Yemen frequently fire missiles and drones at Israel, and attack merchant ships in international waters.
Compared with the 2021 Houthi attack on Hamas, this time Iran has clearly demonstrated a more powerful anti-Israeli and anti-American offensive.
Overall, Suleimani created the structure of the "axis of resistance", while Ghani integrated the pieces into a unified front and broke Israel's "invincible" military myth through the 2023-2024 conflict show.
Hezbollah released a photo of Wissam Tawil with Qassem Soleimani, the Supreme Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. (Reuters)
A war without an end.
But if it is inferred that Iran is about to enter a confrontation with Israel, I am afraid that it will be distorted.
Because Iran's strategic goal for Israel is still to harass the encirclement is greater than complete suppression, even if Hamas does lose heavily under the Israeli military offensive this time, and Israel also responds to the pro-Iranian armed forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, Iran will still consider the overall risk of war against the United States and Israel, and will not rashly declare war.
And this “restraint ” isn ’ t the first time either.
As early as 2020, when Suleimani was assassinated, Iran ’ s “vow of revenge ” was only to attack American military bases in Iraq; just as Iran, which blamed the United States and Israel for the bombing, did not declare war on this indignation, but chose to mobilize pro-Iranian forces to continue to live.
At present, Israel is killing in Gaza, posing as an immortal Hamas oath, and Iran has a certain chance of facing the end of the loss of Hamas.
But to be fair, from the perspective of Iran's strategic layout, it is not only Hamas that can attack Israel.
On January 7, 2024, Israeli air strikes continued in Rafah, southern Gaza. (Reuters)
Among them, the Gaza Corridor is of course an important engine for Israel, and it is also what Khamenei calls “the axis of resistance. ”
In this place, Tehran can mobilize Hamas, Islamic Jihad organizations to fight, pressure Israel, create security interference, and thus raise the cost of Israel's security.
In 2023, for example, the Islamic Jihad clashed with Israel in May before the Hamas flash in October. Although the Israeli air strikes caused heavy losses to the former, they did not prevent the Islamic Jihad from firing 1,100 rockets and mortar shells from Gaza, and the Israeli army was forced to activate the David's Sling air defense system for the first time in recent years.
The West Bank is a new front against Israel.
Not only is it relatively close to major cities and military economic centers such as Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa, but it is also home to a large number of Jewish settlers and more than two million Palestinians, providing available resources for Iran to open up a new front.
In the past two years, armed groups such as the Lions' Den, Jenin Brigade, and Balata Brigade have emerged, attracting many young people who are dissatisfied with the Palestinian National Authority. Although Iran does not directly support these groups, it can provide assistance through Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which is equivalent to obtaining a new strategic pawn and further emptying Palestine. The prestige of the National Authority.
Therefore, during the Israeli offensive on Gaza, there were many armed activities in the West Bank to disrupt the Israeli offensive.
South Lebanon is an Iranian military stronghold against Israel and is centered on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hezbollah has extensive military capabilities and frontline experience, participated in the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War and the Syrian Civil War, and was a key force in Iran ’ s encirclement of Israel.
In addition to southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is also responsible for the administration of forces in the Golan Heights, which are mainly composed of Hezbollah Lebanese and Syrian militias targeting Israel ’ s eastern and northeastern fronts.
In November 2023, Ismail Haniyeh, leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, met with Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a visit to Iran. (X @ Khamenei _ fa)
In addition, the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and the Houthi forces in Yemen, although not directly bordering Israel, can also play a role when needed: the Kata'ib Hezbollah in Iraq and the Nujaba Movement can not only attack US bases but also be deployed to the Golan front, while the Houthi forces in Yemen have links to Hezbollah in Lebanon north. It can be deployed to the south to attack international waters and interfere with the red channel.
Overall, the Gaza corridor is of course an important plate for Iran against Israel, but even without Hamas, Tehran can still encircle Israel in multiple lines; but if in order to keep Hamas, and rashly declare war on Israel, Iran is bound to face the risk of US military pressure.
So the best course of action for Iran is to remain patient and continue harassing Israel, rather than a one-off showdown.
Looking ahead to 2024, whether or not Israel can achieve the strategic goal of completely eliminating Hamas, the war in Gaza is likely to continue for some time, which means that Iran will not stop its harassment on various plates.
In the process, the probability of a full-scale war is low, but it will have an impact on the diplomatic field, such as the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, and the negotiation of a nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States.
Finally, no matter how the war in Gaza ends, the strategic rift between Iran ’ s “revolt axis ” and the United States and Israel will deepen, and even if Hamas is annihilated by Israel, other armed forces loyal to Tehran will not stop encircling Israel.
In the end, the structure of the Israeli-Arab conflict has faded, but the new era rift between Iran and Israel and the United States is spreading in the Middle East.
For all parties, this is a war without end.

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Friday, 07.04.2023
13: 07 Israel and the Arabs: there will be no big war? - B. Dolgov
12: 24 is a great battle.
America is deploying a deeply layered defense in a technological war with China, - T. Seitmuratov
11: 49 Elderly Ivan Volynkin - new Russian ambassador to Turkmenistan
11: 47 is a must.
Arkadag II again discussed with businessmen from the United States the creation of infrastructure for golf
11: 31 "France - will explode!" - the leader of the "yellow vests" Thierry Paul Valet
11: 19 In the presidents of Lebanon are told a close friend of Assad - Suleiman Frangieh
10: 07 How is the looting of Russian cultural values of Ukraine, - Povilas Ignatavičius
09: 14 Lessons of history.
Unknown Mikhail Frunze, - Zaynidin Kurmanov
08: 05 Haber7: Washington wants to put a second Zelensky at the head of Turkey
7: 45 is no longer “my own ”.
Relations between Russia and its allies in the CIS require repair, - G.Mirzayan
07: 39 Fear and panic.
On the banking crisis in the United States in simple words - Richard Wolf
07: 34 Lack of staff.
Why there is no one to work in Kyrgyzstan - A. Bengard
07: 32 Bishkek.
Chairman of “Anti-Corruption People ’ s Service ” arrested for extortion
07: 14 “Destroy the UOC before Easter ” – the Ukro-Satanists entered the race
00: 55 The world order is new, the conditions of the game are changing, - Alexander Bartosh
00: 09 The dollar was given a "black mark".
Control over the price of gold and oil passed to Russia and China – Brian P. Bolger
00: 08 Truncated memory.
The fight against the "colonial past" in Kyrgyzstan - Sergey Kozhemyakin
00: 04 Kazakhstan issues "Toguzkumalak" collectible coins
Thursday, 06.04.2023
34 missiles from Lebanon arrive in Israel
21: 20 EU proposes PRC together "to reason with Russia", - NG
10: 56 Humanity is a step away from the creation of a time machine: scientists managed to break space and time
12 countries boycotted the World Boxing Championship in Tashkent because of the flags of Russia and Belarus
10: 52 Kazakhstanis need money, not endless "reforms" - Natalia Ospanova
10: 51 Suddenly against each other: relations between the United States and Turkey have heated up again
10: 49 New opposition in New Kazakhstan, - A.Chebotarev
10: 48 "A woman is not a thing."
Girls in Tashkent launch social project against violence
10: 45 Deprived of Olympic medal Kyrgyz weightlifter suspected of "framing" Frenchman
10: 39 Provocation with "separatists" of Northern Kazakhstan, - V.Prokhvatilov
10: 30 People ’ s Artist of Kyrgyzstan opera singer Stalbek Almasbekov dies
09: 11 Zelensky triumphs: anti-Orthodox fire broke out across Ukraine
08: 30 Zhahongir Hidaikhodjaev - new head of the Agency for External Labor Migration of Uzbekistan
08: 28 Uzbekistan ’ s Club web platform launched
08: 21 Beijing intercepts the initiative in the nuclear deal with Iran, - SP
08: 16 Russia and the Saudis sent a signal to the West: this is our price ceiling, - Emre Ergül
08: 11 Central Asia is in motion.
Tajikistan and Turkmenistan set to improve relations - Viktoria Panfilova
07: 53 Turkmenistan residents were forbidden to use gas during abnormal frosts, but there was enough gas for greenhouses
07: 52 The army of disposable suckers, - G.Simakov
07: 10 Murat Mukushev appointed as National Coordinator of SCO from Kazakhstan
01: 01 The mayor is in the bag.
What is known about the new acting mayor of Tashkent Shavkat Umurzakov
"Green" - red: how the yuan knocked out the dollar from the Russian market
00: 58 How Russia is protected from the blow that destroyed the USSR - K.Semenov
00: 57 Why has journalism become a dangerous profession in Tajikistan?
00: 50 "America is going to hell" - The Telegraph
00: 45 Censorship: Metaphysics of Sovereign Culture, - Alexander Dugin
00: 38 Tunisia without president and crop views - Ravil Mustafin
"Triple blow" OPEC + will knock the West out of the oil market, - JV
Indonesian police arrest four Uzbeks on suspicion of terrorism
China ready to attack dollar and IMF, - Makarov
00: 09 NATO urgently brings together the "Romanian front", - L. Savin
00: 06 Grain deal on the head, - Dm.Sedov
00: 05 Visit of European leaders to China may weaken EU, - V. Skosyrev
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Fear and panic.
On the banking crisis in the United States in simple words - Richard Wolf
07: 39 07.04.2023
Editing Tomorrow
Richard Wolf is an American economist, Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
He graduated from Harvard in 1963 with a Bachelor of History degree.
He has a Master of Economics, Master of History, Doctor of Economics.
Richard Wolf is a Marxist, was a candidate for mayor of New Haven.
We offer readers a fragment of his interview with the radio program "Letters and Politics" with the presenter Mitch Eserich, dedicated to the banking crisis in the United States.
Today we will talk about the bankruptcy of two American banks: Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York.
Richard, you and I met at the time of the collapse of the banking system in 2008.
Then, in the early days, I did not understand what was happening, and turned to you to pull myself out of this intellectual pit.
My reaction to the crisis of March 2023 is now similar.
You have a wonderful ability to talk in simple words about things that seem difficult to understand.
So let me ask you the first question.
What do we all need to understand about the collapse of these two banks?
To begin with, everything that happens is not difficult to understand.
Most of the difficult to understand conversations you hear from executives and regulators are designed precisely to distract your attention.
They made things so complicated that no sane person would listen to it.
I also want to tell you from personal experience that the people who run our banks are not the greatest minds.
So don't really trust what they're saying.
I'll give you an example.
It was quite recently, on March 11.
The famous podcast The Intercept quoted Silicon Valley Bank president Greg Becker as asking Congress to relax banking regulation.
He said, "Given the low risk profile of our operations..."
This man tells Congress how low risk his business has, and this "lowest risk" took over and brought down the bank last weekend.
Returning to your question: how is the bank now organized?
Commercial banks accept deposits both from individuals, that is, from us with you, and from commercial organizations.
I ’ m sure you ’ ve noticed that these deposits are rarely given back by banks.
They try to prolong them, offer you other banking products.
You suddenly become grateful to them that they even hold this deposit for you.
They then take your money and lend it to where they can get the highest return: a corporate borrower, an individual to use as their credit card, invest in securities, and so on.
In other words, the bank lives off the difference between what it pays you (very little) and what it gets by lending your money.
This difference can be significant.
One of the most popular investments of banks is the purchase of government bonds.
In other words, banks take the deposit you made and lend it to the United States government.
This is what Silicon Valley Bank did.
He attracted deposits, issued loans to local start-up companies (start-ups) and bought government bonds.
Over the years, the bank has made a lot of money on this difference.
Then in California began the first difficulties in the field of IT.
Hundreds of thousands of IT workers have lost their jobs, mostly in Silicon Valley.
And if a high-tech company reduces its activities, it puts fewer deposits in the bank.
Similarly, people: their contributions began to decline.
But there is also the risk of an outflow of deposits: what if customers want to take deposits back?
And then the only thing a bank can do is sell government bonds and get money for them.
But is it that easy?
Bonds, like any financial asset, have a price and against the background of the monetary policy of the US Central Bank (Fed), this price begins to fall. Why?
Because in order to fight inflation, which really creates problems for the American economy, the US central bank (Fed) raises interest rates.
What happened to Silicon Valley Bank?
Bond prices went down, so the bank did not have the funds to meet the demands of depositors who wanted their money back.
And then the top management made a fatal mistake, because, as I said, it is not the greatest mind people.
The bank entered the market and said that they needed more money, more capital and offered to place their shares.
Placement did not take place, after which customers began to take deposits from the bank.
The bulk of deposits there were not insured, there were fears that savings would be difficult to get back.
And the bank collapsed.
Silicon Valley Bank did not have enough money in U.S. government bonds to cover the outflow of deposits.
To put it bluntly, the bank was unable to professionally and effectively dispose of the deposits entrusted to it by depositors.
Lawyers would say he violated his fiduciary duties.
What is important to understand in this situation?
Money is a lubricant for the capital economy.
Money is what we get paid.
Money is what we spend to buy ourselves food, clothes.
We all depend on the monetary system.
At the same time, we allow private banks to have a huge impact on the monetary system.
If you talk to these bankers, they will honestly tell you: we are in business to make a profit.
If we make a profit, we move forward, we get more respect, more money.
If we don ’ t make a lot of money, it will discredit us.
That is, we all, our society and our economy depend on this system of capital.
And we put it in the hands of people who do business not according to the needs of society, not according to what people need.
They are busy making money for their bank and for themselves.
Of course, there are still illusionist people who tell you, “If each of us magically makes money for ourselves, it will eventually become a collective public good. ”
There's nothing to talk about with people like that.
People who quote Adam Smith forget that he was always talking about how the capitalists would cheat you if you gave them even half a chance.
We forget about this deception.
For some reason, we are constantly talking about the “invisible hand ” leading us.
But the trap is that the "hand of the market" is not invisible.
If you put your financial affairs in the hands of a banker, he will do a good job of making “visible ” profits for the bank.
It's his reward system.
It's his system of punishment.
And we see the results.
They did what was good for them: made a lot of money, including Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker himself.
Millions and millions of dollars.
Then, when they created a huge crisis in the whole society, who should save them?
They are ordinary people, ordinary taxpayers.
New York-based economist Nouriel Roubini famously put it this way: “We are a system in which revenues are privatized and expenditures are socialized. ”
That is, the state should most “visibly ” save troubled banks, after their top management put in their pockets the income from depositors ’ money.
This, of course, in its own way, is curious.
We live in a society that says, “We have a problem with inflation. ”
If you have a problem with inflation, why does the US central bank give unlimited money to any bank in the system?
It ’ s like trying to extinguish a fire by pouring kerosene on it.
Obviously, there are too many problems in our financial system at the same time.
The solution of one leads to the emergence of another.
The Fed is raising interest rates to stop inflation, resulting in a banking crisis.
The Fed is compensating for the banking crisis with an infusion of new money, and what will we get again as a result?
Inflation?
The circle is closed.
Collapse.
In response, our political leaders only blame each other, and this is so inadequate to the problem that it really makes things worse.
- The press is actively discussing (and this comes from the US president himself) that taxpayers' money will not be used to ensure payments.
Then what will it be?
Some kind of loan?
These comments are always amazing.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) may face problems to provide for all depositors, but it is known that the FDIC does not have that kind of money.
Therefore, the first thing that the FDIC will do, which it has a legal right to do, is to increase the tax on banks.
They have to pay into this fund to get the insurance they can offer their depositors.
And guess what banks will do when they have to pay those extra fees?
They will make us all pay for it by raising commissions, lowering deposit rates.
Isn ’ t that a form of additional tax burden?
The second most obvious option is the indefinite burden on ordinary citizens during inflation.
After all, if inflation is still high and this period becomes long, this is also a tax. Why?
Because the inflation rate is noticeably higher than the rate of wage growth.
So every minute that this inflation continues (and now it will either increase or last longer, or both), it becomes another form of pressure on the population.
And, finally, no one knows what the consequences of this banking crisis will be.
I ’ m not talking about megabanks like Bank of America or Wells Fargo Bank, but mid-tier banks.
They are now in a terrible situation.
It is small banks that serve a significant part of the American economy, especially medium and small businesses.
They will have all sorts of difficulties in the future.
The government will be called upon to help them, and at that point taxes will have to be imposed.
- When you read the press and the opinions of various analysts, for some reason there is a feeling that the situation in the banking sector has been and remains under control.
But what I hear from you is not so optimistic, do you disagree with the consensus opinion?
The thing is, nobody really knows what's going on.
If I were to tell you definitively, "The situation is out of control," it would be as unfounded as saying otherwise.
I hope it's under control.
They hope they are under control.
But that ’ s all that can be at the moment.
I do not want to bore anyone, but I remind you that in 2007, when we began to understand that mortgages are not paid, everyone, up to President George W. Bush, assured that this was a limited problem.
She's under control.
They assured us throughout the second half of 2007, the first half of 2008.
It wasn ’ t until the fall of Bear Stearns in August that the scale of the tragedy became clear.
The extent of the problem is currently unknown.
The actual bankruptcy of the European Credit Suisse, the uncertainty around Deutsche Bank - everything is on the verge.
Everyone asks: what can be the last straw in the notorious cup of patience, after which everything will spill out?
We know that European banks have a lot of problems.
Regulation is tougher here than here.
That is, I repeat again: at the moment it is simply impossible to understand what problems are being discussed.
On the basis of what taxes will be implemented government measures to support banks.
- I will return with what I said earlier, namely to the causes of the crisis in the banking sector, to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
I am sure that most people have heard about these major job cuts in the IT sector at the beginning of the year and, of course, about the growth of interest rates against the background of inflation.
Are these the main reasons or can you name something else?
- The reduction of employment in the field of high technology should have been a loud warning signal for officials and regulators at the beginning of the year.
What do you think it means if hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom by American standards receive quite decent wages, suddenly experience financial collapse?
All of these people have mortgages, which means that not only do they not have the money, but also the banks that give them loans.
We are an interconnected system.
Capitalism has connected us in the last two or three centuries in ways never seen before.
And he tied us up in such a way that sometimes a tiny group of executives make decisions in a room we don't even know about.
And if they are asked suddenly why the deposits were so inefficiently used, why they cannot be returned now, they will not have an answer.
But I can answer.
Because it was extremely beneficial to them.
Shareholders and senior management are the people who get their hands on the wealth of the entire society.
They convince us, “We ’ ll do this, we ’ ll do this, let ’ s hope the government will help, ” while doing everything they can to block reforms that limit their profitability.
This happens with every reform.
After the Great Depression in the 1930s, we had a reform called the Glass-Steagall Act aimed at restricting the capacity of banks.
In 1999, the Glass-Steagall Act was finally repealed by Democratic President Bill Clinton.
After the financial crisis of 2008 – 2009, the following reforms were carried out with great effort - the Dodd-Frank Act.
What happened to him?
After it was adopted, it experienced opposition.
Then revised and annulled thanks to Donald Trump, the president already from the Republicans.
And now, please, we are facing the next financial crisis.
Everything repeats itself, it is part of the history of capitalism.
My wife is a therapist.
She taught me the important psychological concept of denial.
I feel that I am not the only one who understands the cyclical nature of this banking crisis.
We try to analyze and explain what is happening.
It's not difficult.
The problem is that people don ’ t want to see it.
They do not want to think about the depth of the problem because they are afraid of where it will lead them, and their fear is justified.
Understanding that there is no solution within the current system is self-destructive.
Source: Tomorrow
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Content: 9 August, Monday | Last update — 12: 02 | vz.ru
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What threatens the Americans persecution of Russian diplomats
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
The White House is more afraid of the negative reaction of the American press than the failure of the Russian-American agreements in Geneva.
A failure that would have disastrous consequences for the interests of the United States.
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Discussion: 6 comments
The story of revolutionary Angela Davis
Ivan Ivanyushkin, Candidate of Philosophical Sciences, researcher of the history of the Internet
Viktor Sukhorukov in “Brother 2 ” quotes the famous Soviet slogan:“ Freedom to Angela Davis! ”.
Besides, we don't know anything about her.
Meanwhile, Angela is a very interesting person, with a rich biography and a difficult fate.
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Discussion: 32 Comments
Russian synchronists brought the Russian national team the 14th gold medal
Svetlana Romashina and Svetlana Kolesnichenko won another gold medal for the Russian team at the Olympic Games in Tokyo in synchronized swimming.
The Russians won the duet competition.
Now the national team of Russia has 14 gold, 21 silver and 18 bronze medals
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The resort area of Turkey was covered by forest fires
Turkish authorities managed to localize part of the fires that engulfed forests in the south of the country, and also detained the alleged perpetrators of the disaster.
Authorities suspect arson, as the fires broke out simultaneously in different resort areas.
Vacationers in Turkey, our tourists were not injured
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Russian fencers won gold and silver at the Olympics in Tokyo
Russian athlete Sofia Pozdnyakova won a gold medal at the Olympics in Tokyo in saber fencing competitions.
In the final, she defeated another Russian, Sophia the Great.
Thus, Russia received both gold and silver in this type of competition.
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9: 12 PM
In Orenburg, the legendary “Katyusha ” returned to the park“ Salute, Victory! ”
In Orenburg, the legendary BM-13 returned to the museum watch after a complete restoration, which was nicknamed “Katyusha ” by soldiers during the war.
Together with other exhibits, the combat vehicle was completely restored.
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6: 40 PM
In Buryatia completed the installation of a virtual concert hall in the framework of the national project "Culture"
In the city of Zakamensk in Buryatia, the installation and installation of a virtual concert hall, purchased with the funds of the federal project "Digital Culture" of the national project "Culture", is coming to an end.
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5: 11 p.m.
own news
For schools of the Leningrad region will buy musical instruments for 60 million rubles
Children ’ s art schools of the Leningrad region will receive new musical instruments, equipment and literature, in addition, the reconstruction of the Lodeinopolsky children ’ s center for aesthetic development will be carried out.
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in your opinion
Are you satisfied with the performance of Russian athletes at the Olympics in Tokyo?
Don ’ t worry about paper medals.
Dmitry Grunyushkin
writer
9 August 2021, 11: 44
What happened at last year ’ s Olympics in Tokyo, which unexpectedly took place this year, stirred public opinion stronger than the British ship Defender, who made a walk off the Crimean coast.
Gold in rhythmic gymnastics unfit judges, contrary to common sense and sports honor, gave the Israeli athlete Lina Ashram, leaving behind our sisters Averin, unconditional favorites and queens of the “artist ”.
Since I am not an expert in rhythmic gymnastics, moreover, I understand it less than in curling, I will not dwell on the topic of compliance with the rules by judges.
But some aspects of this, let ’ s say, curiosity is available to people without special training.
To begin with, let ’ s calm down and stop repeating the mantra “Jews bought everything ”, as well as cursing the athlete herself – she is only a tool.
It was not Lina who pulled, but drowned ours.
Lena was not dragged from the bottom by the ears, she made her way.
It ’ s just that our girls did not have other competitors, so they used an Israeli.
And in this situation, it would be worth regretting it most.
In professional boxing there is such an unspoken term - "paper belt".
It is received by the contender for the championship belt not for the victory over the current champion, but when the champion retires.
It is almost like a champion, but “paper ”.
And you're kind of a champion, above you in the rankings.
But you know you're not a champion because you never beat a real champion.
This is the worst nightmare for a real fighter.
Do you remember the movie Rocky 5?
There, young boxer Tommy Gunn is driven crazy by the idea that he is the owner of a “paper belt ”, and the champion is still the elderly Rocky Balboa, who once brought him to the people.
It so knocked him out that he sacrificed his career, getting involved with Rocky in a street brawl, in which the veteran won.
So the Ashram medal is “paper ”.
Everyone knows it, including her.
And let her now brag, declaring to the public that she does not care about the results of others, and she is only interested in her own result.
And let the people of Israel carry it in their arms, spitting away from the voices of the stolen victory.
She didn't steal, yeah.
This victory was stolen for her.
And she will live with that knowledge for the rest of her life.
And in vain you think she doesn't care.
An internal ulcer will burn her all her life.
Showing the medal to her children and grandchildren, she will be forever afraid of an innocent question: “Mom, I was told at school that this is a“ paper medal ” and it was stolen from the Russians.
That is not true, is it? ”
She will, of course, say that this is not true and she deserved it honestly (and almost will not lie, because she did not steal the victory) - but this evil mouse will gnaw her heart all her life.
It can devour the soul of a true athlete fighter to the bone.
Would you like to live with such a hole in your heart?
I'm not.
This is doubly scary when you know the psychology of an athlete.
I have lived in such a family and I dare say that this part of their worldview is known to me.
So an athlete, if he does not work in sports, like football players or boxers, for the sake of money, the most important thing is to be and realize yourself as the best.
Not just the first, but the best!
Do you understand?
“Paper medal ” for such a worse second place.
They hate these medals.
You are very mistaken if you think that for the sake of the first place athletes are ready to go into all serious situations.
There are, of course, but the face of the sport is not determined by them.
The face of the sport is defined by the likes of Ivan Fernandez.
When his rival, the Kenyan runner, overtaking all, stopped ahead of time and began to celebrate the victory, not realizing that it was not yet the finish, the Spaniard did not overtake the Kenyan, but pushed him to the ribbon, and he came second.
“What would my mother say about this medal? ” he simply asked the correspondent when asked why he did so.
The face of the sport is defined by Igor Netto, who pointed out to the referee that the ball we scored in the most important game flew into the opponent ’ s goal through a hole on the side of the net.
They come second, but they become the best.
And the price of “paper medals ” is determined by the audience.
Do you remember who took the gold on the bar in Athens 2004?
So I had to google to remember the name of Igor Cassina.
But the way the tribunes staged a form of riot, for a quarter of an hour not allowing the competition to continue, when the same company of judges rudely robbed Alexei Nemov, depriving him not only of gold, but also of the medal in general.
Alexis had to personally reassure the tribunes.
He then left the Olympics for the first time without a medal, but entered the Pantheon of Sports Glory as a person who was raised to the top of the pedestal not by judges, but by spectators.
I think that if it were not for the empty stands, the situation could repeat itself in Tokyo.
As for the outrage over what happened, to be honest, it surprises me.
How can you be outraged by the natural course of events?
Imagine the situation.
Train Moscow-Vorkuta.
You go to the dining car and sit down there to switch to a stos or a point with a company of unfamiliar men of unintelligent appearance.
After an hour, you find yourself with your pockets turned out and a painlessly removed gold tooth.
What are your options for dealing with the situation?
A naive person, as a pioneer, can be indignant, vaguely guessing that everything seems to be not very honest.
This role is now being tried on by most of those who are indignant at the dishonest act of judges in social networks.
A person more adequate, but also naive, may be outraged by the fact that the Catalans do not according to the concepts of the fryer stripped naked, while according to the same concepts it is necessary to give the fryer back at least pants and three rubles - then he will still be grateful to fortune.
And then our team competitions were not allowed to win.
The outrage, citizens!
But how to characterize a person who on the train Moscow-Vorkuta deliberately goes to a dining car with the idea of   throwing himself into a stos with unfamiliar men of unintelligent appearance?
Should we be outraged by what happened next?
I am very bad for fraudsters.
This is the worst, in my opinion, criminal tribe.
Cheating is worse than outright robbery.
But I never get the idea to resent their morals.
In our understanding of morality they do not have.
They have their own morality - to throw a fryer is not a sin.
And they live by that morality.
Sit down to play with the Catalans - everything, you are in their territory, you are in the zone of their morality.
Yes, what is there, if we continue the analogy, then in the doors of the dining car you were also met by bouncers and tried in every possible way not to let you in.
They robbed you of the flag, the anthem, even Tchaikovsky and the bears on the swimsuit.
You've been shown by every available means that you're a freak and you're not welcome here.
But you decided to break through with a carcass or a stuffed animal.
All right, said the bouncers and the katals.
Come in, let's play.
By our rules.
What happened is disgusting.
And normal at the same time.
In fact, naturally.
It would be strange if that didn ’ t happen.
If you drink with thieves, beware of your wallet, as Butusov sang.
And you know, it's all for the best.
The International Olympic Movement has finally degenerated.
This event at the intersection of sports, show business, pharmaceuticals, business and politics, generously flavored with a tolerant and elgabatic agenda, is rapidly sliding into the likeness of Eurovision and losing the last vestiges of authority.
The Olympians even managed to spoil Pierre de Coubertin ’ s motto.
In most sports, world championships are an order of magnitude more valuable than the “fun starts ” of the Olympics.
That's where they go.
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