### Report on Germany’s Move Away from Nuclear Energy

#### Introduction
Germany’s decision to phase out nuclear energy has been a long-standing policy, rooted in environmental concerns and public sentiment following nuclear accidents such as Chernobyl and Fukushima.

However, recent geopolitical events, particularly the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have complicated this transition, leading to renewed debates about the role of nuclear power in Germany’s energy mix.

This report explores the reasons behind Germany’s nuclear phase-out, its impact on the energy grid, the influence of external pressures, and public opinion on the matter.

#### Reasons Behind the Nuclear Phase-Out
1.

**Historical Context and Public Sentiment**: Germany’s nuclear phase-out policy, known as *Atomausstieg*, began in the early 2000s and was accelerated after the Fukushima disaster in 2011.

The policy was largely driven by public opposition to nuclear energy due to safety concerns and the long-term challenges of nuclear waste disposal.

### Report on Germany’s Move Away from Nuclear Energy

#### Introduction
Germany’s decision to phase out nuclear energy has been a long-standing policy, rooted in environmental concerns and public sentiment following nuclear accidents such as Chernobyl and Fukushima.

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Content: Germany shuts down three of its six nuclear power plants to switch to renewable energy
Saturday 01 January 2022 - 12: 41 GMT
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Content: Home / News / World /  Germany quits nuclear power; shuts final 3 plants
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Germany has shut its final three nuclear plants, marking the end of the country's end of nuclear era that has spanned more than 60 years.

Nuclear power has long been contentious in Germany.

The move has come as Germany's eyes achieve its green goal. Steffi Lemke, Germany’s Federal Minister for the Environment and Consumer Protection and a Green Party member, "The position of the German government is clear: nuclear power is not green. Nor is it sustainable".

Closure of three nuclear plant's history:

Germany shut three plants-- Emsland, Isar 2, and Neckarwestheim, representing the culmination of a plan set in motion more than 20 years ago.

During the 1970s, a strong anti-nuclear movement emerged in Germany. The movement gave birth to the green party, which is now part of governing coalition.

However, it was in the 2000s the German government pledged to phase out nuclear power and start shutting down plants.

But in 2009, a new government came to power and it seemed brief as if nuclear would get a reprieve as a bridging technology to help the country move to renewable energy.

Then Fukushima happened. In 2011, an earthquake and tsunami caused three reactors of the Fukushima Daiichi power plant to melt down.

Three days later then-Chancellor Angela Merkel who was previously pro-nuclear, announced Germany would accelerate a nuclear phase-out, with older plants shuttered immediately.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine provided another plot twist.

Germany isn’t the only country committed to walking away from nuclear — Italy gave up the technology in 1990, and Lithuania recently struck a deal to dismantle its Soviet-era reactors, which have sat idle for over a decade. But in many advanced economies, nuclear is experiencing a resurgence.

On Sunday, Finland will start regular power production at Europe’s newest and biggest reactor. The 1,600-megawatt Olkiluoto-3 unit that faced years of delays had been planned to enter commercial production on Monday. France is planning to build at least six new reactors by 2050 as well as experiment with smaller, modular ones. The UK has similar ambitions. And even in Japan, after a decade of paralysis following the nuclear accident in Fukushima, the public is warming up to the use of nuclear power. The Japanese government wants to restart reactors that have sat idle since the disaster and to extend the lifespan of existing units.

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Content: Can Africa replace Russian gas and fill Europe ’ s needs? | Politics and economics | In-depth analysis with a broader perspective than DW | DW | 26.03.2022
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Can Africa replace Russian gas and meet Europe ’ s needs?
As the fighting in Ukraine intensifies, the European Union intends to dispense with Russian gas.
In his search for alternative sources, Africa is being talked about.
But experts say it is not easy despite the continent ’ s vast oil and gas reserves.
Despite Africa ’ s vast oil and gas reserves, it is not easy for it to increase its production and meet Europe ’ s needs.
EU countries are to stop importing oil and gas from Russia in response to its February 24 invasion of Ukraine.
In order to avoid harming EU economies, the bloc is considering moving forward with medium- and long-term solutions to replace 380 million cubic meters per day of Russian gas, which amounts to 140 billion cubic meters, or 45 percent of the EU ’ s total annual gas consumption.
In an effort to meet short-term energy needs, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck took a different path, leading leading German energy companies to conclude agreements with the UAE during his visit there, while the price of Brent crude, used as a key benchmark for oil prices around the world, continued to rise.
watch the video 00: 59
Germany reaches deal with Qatar to reduce dependence on Russian gas
Are you helping Africa?
With its abundant oil and gas reserves, the African continent may be an alternative to replacing Russian gas, as in 2017 Africa was reported to have proven gas reserves of 148.6 trillion cubic meters, representing more than 7 percent of the world ’ s gas reserves.
In 2019, the EU imported about 108 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Africa, mainly from Nigeria, which supplied the bloc with more than 12 billion cubic meters.
Khadi Kamara, an official with the German-African Business Federation, said: “African producers have more reserves than they need in domestic markets, so they want to increase exports. ”
Nigeria ranked first in Africa in 2019 in the volume of crude oil exports from the continent at a rate of more than 2 million barrels per day of oil on the global market.
The same year, Africa ’ s total oil and gas production exceeded more than 327.3 million metric tons of oil and the continent ’ s share of global oil exports was nearly 9 percent as of 2020.
An energy broker in Nigeria, who asked not to be identified and called himself Shinido Olayinka, said that in order for African countries to fill the gap, “they have to provide a surplus of at least 7.4 million barrels per day. ”
“These countries don ’ t have the capacity to do it, they ’ re not even close to achieving it! ”
Limited production capacity
“Angola and Nigeria, the two largest oil producers in Africa, have not been able to meet their commitments under OPEC.
How can we save a lot of oil? ”
Nigeria only managed to pump 94 percent of its 1.7 million bpd quota, while Angola pumped only 78 percent of its 1.4 million bpd quota, he said.
"If major African producers cannot meet their quotas, there will be no way they can fill the gap that Russia may cause in the short term," he said.
But it is not just the inability of African oil producers to meet their commitments, it goes beyond that: “These countries are finding it difficult to attract new investments in the oil production sector.
So it may not be able to contribute to filling the (gas and oil) gap in the medium term, ” Olanka noted.
conflict in Ukraine.
Where does Africa stand?
With regard to the war in Ukraine, African countries have diverged on the Russian invasion, which has sent gas and oil prices soaring to record highs.
This was demonstrated during the March 2 vote of the UN General Assembly on a resolution condemning Russian military operations and demanding the immediate, unconditional and comprehensive withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
Although 28 of the 54 African countries voted in favor of the resolution, other African countries abstained or did not participate in the session except Eritrea, which sided with Russia and voted against the resolution along with Syria and North Korea.
This has revealed the emergence of political differences among the African Union countries that prevent the continent from speaking with one voice at the United Nations.
A German-African business group asked Germany ’ s economy minister last week to reach out to his African counterparts to discuss the possibility of increasing oil and gas supplies from the continent.
Weak infrastructure
Experts believe that the reluctance of African countries to commit to pumping more oil and gas may be due to weak oil and energy infrastructure, especially gas and oil pipelines to Europe.
According to statistics from the South African branch of auditing and consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, the weak infrastructure crisis in the oil sector led to a decline in oil production on the continent by 19 percent in 2019 from the previous year, representing 7.8 percent of global output.
Gas production in Africa also saw a slight decline of 5 percent over the same period.
Weak energy infrastructure makes increasing Africa ’ s oil production difficult
“Oil companies can have much better financial terms and an easier operating environment if they invest in new oil production lines from outside Africa, ” Olayenka said.
He stressed that African oil-producing countries must take measures to attract foreign investment in this vital sector.
“In order for Nigeria, Angola and other African oil-producing countries to attract investment, they must lure oil companies with financial incentives to inject investment while facilitating business processes, ” he said.
Attracting Investments
Since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, Algeria, Africa ’ s largest gas exporter to the European Union, has shown a willingness to increase exports of natural gas and liquefied gas.
Currently, there are four direct pipelines to transport gas from Africa to Europe, but all are in North African countries.
The challenge is to build new infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa to connect it to the North African pipeline.
Oil and energy expert Olyanka says that in order to find short-term solutions, African countries need to adjust their financial systems to allow oil companies to make financial gains from their investments in the continent.
Not only that, Olayenka points out, but African countries must eradicate corruption, crude oil theft and bureaucracy.
Abu Bakr Ghalwa / UNV

Title:

Content: Germany To Postpone Closure Of Last Three Nuclear Power Plants - WSJ

(@ChaudhryMAli88)

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 17th August, 2022) Germany, faced with possible energy shortages in the winter as gas supplies from Russia have dropped, intends to postpone the closure of its last three nuclear power plants (NPPs) in a move marking a departure from a two-decade policy to abandon nuclear energy, The Wall Street Journal reported citing German government officials.

The decision, which has to be formally adopted by the cabinet of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and would possibly require a vote in Parliament, could be weeks off, but already now the German government says two key conditions have been met that allow a temporary extension of the life of the three remaining NPPs, currently expected to close December 31: the possibility of a gas shortage and the confidence that a longer operation of reactors would pose no safety concern, according to the officials.

"The reactors are safe until Dec. 31, and obviously they will remain safe also after Dec. 31," the WSJ quoted a senior official as saying.

Scholz last week said for the first time that it could make sense to keep Germany's last three nuclear reactors online.

However, even if the life of the three German NPPs is extended, this will not be a panacea for Germany's looming energy crisis this winter as the country is mainly missing natural gas, primarily used for heating and manufacturing.

The European Union has been seeking to diversify energy imports and reduce dependence on Russia after Moscow started its special military operation in Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has repeatedly said that Russia has never used gas supplies to punish anyone, but sells energy solely in its own interests, to increase the welfare of Russians and on a commercial basis.

The German government has also outlined measures to reduce gas and power consumption in the country over the next two years. The measures in particular include lowering the temperature in public buildings. According to Germany's energy regulator, gas consumption will have to be cut by 20 percent if Germany wants to avoid a gas shortfall during this coming winter and next winter.

The three officials who spoke to the WSJ said the extension of the NPPs' life would only be made for several months.

The power plants in question are Isar 2 in the southern state of Bavaria, Neckarwestheim 2 in Baden-Wurttemberg and Emsland in Lower Saxony. They are operated, respectively, by E.On SE, EnBW AG, and RWE AG.

After the start of Russia's special military operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine, the West has stepped up sanctions pressure on Russia, which has led to an increase in prices for energy and food in Europe and the United States.

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Content: Schulz urges Germans to unite, save energy in new year
Saturday ، 31 December 2022 08: 00 PM
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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the crisis in Ukraine is a "difficult" test for Germany, calling on his citizens to "unity of ranks and energy saving in the new year," expressing thanks to them for rationalizing consumption, according to "Russia Today".
In a televised New Year message, Schulz praised his people's efforts to save energy amid the fuel crisis.
“Many are worried about the Russo-Ukrainian war, where everyone felt the consequences of the conflict on their daily lives, especially while shopping at supermarkets, gas stations, or paying electricity and gas bills, ” he said.
He stressed that new liquefied gas stations will be opened and urged the German people to continue to save energy, saying that "gas tanks are full thanks to the energy that has been provided in recent months."
“This energy saving campaign will be important over the coming months, so I would like to thank you today. ”
Economic indicators indicate that the German economy is facing a difficult winter, as the industry suffered another setback: in August, production and incoming orders fell, and retail sales continued their downward trend in August, in light of high price increases, as the consumer climate continues to indicate a downward trend.
Inflation rose to 10.0% in September, the highest rate since December 1951, helped by the expiration of the energy tax reduction on fuel and the nine euro ticket.
For the first half of 2022, German district courts reported a total of 7,113 corporate bankruptcies, 4% less than in the first half of 2021.
The situation in the labor market remains stable, despite the decline of key indicators, but they indicate that companies will retain their employees despite the impending recession.
For his part, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck presented the expectations of the federal government for this year, where the decline in growth prospects in Germany significantly, due to Russia's violation of all gas supply agreements, and the continued rise in energy prices in Europe, but the federal government still expects growth of 1.4% this year, and a decline in economic output in 2023 by 0.4%.
Inflation will remain at a high level of 8.0% in 2022 and 7.0% in 2023.
While growth of 1.4% is still expected in 2022, this is mainly due to the unexpectedly strong first half of the year.
In 2023.
On the other hand, the federal government expects a decline in economic output of 0.4%.
Germany is facing a recession.
Economic indicators in August and September support the possibility of a significant deterioration of the economic situation on the back of gas supplies from Russia, inbound orders and production fell in August, energy-intensive industry reduced production disproportionately, and the business climate IFO also declined, mainly due to the collapse of business expectations. High prices.
The expiration of the €9 ticket contributed to renewed high inflation, and higher inflation rates are also expected in the next few months, as gas and electricity price brakes are implemented in a way that mitigates high prices.
The situation in the labor market remains stable, but the usual recovery in the fall is relatively weak due to global uncertainties, the high unemployment rate has subsided to 14,000 people in September, and the growth in recent months is mainly due to the migration of refugees from Ukraine, where Ukrainian refugees have been included in basic security measures since June.
Accordingly, the number of unemployed in the legal sphere of SGB II rose sharply, in September by 4,000 people.
According to the German Federal Employment Agency, a total of 2,363,000 unemployed people were registered in June.
The agency pointed out that this number is more than what was monitored in May with a total of 103 thousand people, but nevertheless less than what was monitored in June last year with a total of 251 thousand people, adding that the unemployment rate increased by 0.3 points and reached 5.2%.
New employees are still being sought in the service sector and companies are generally trying to keep employees in view of the shortage of skilled workers, even if the German economy is threatened with recession.
The unstable geopolitical situation and current problems will cause uncertainty at all levels in the near future, and a certain reluctance to make investment and buying decisions is expected in the coming months, especially as the strong upward pressure on prices also reduces real purchasing power.
Even if private households begin to ease their reluctance to buy during the Coronavirus period, the savings rate has fallen almost to the pre-Coronavirus level, and inflation will reduce their purchasing power, so that private consumption increases more slowly in real terms.
On the corporate side, investment appetite tends to wane due to new geopolitical uncertainty.
Public spending will be increased only significantly as part of the financial assistance in connection with the Ukraine crisis and the investments announced by the government, whether for the environment or for the German armed forces.
Exports will also increase as the global economy grows moderately, but they will be affected by sanctions on Russia and possibly even more cautious measures towards China, as the expected post-coronavirus recovery will not be dynamic overall, the average annual economic growth for 2022 will be only 1%, provided the crisis factors do not escalate further.
This, a statistical buildup in early 2022 / 2023 and a reduction in geopolitical tensions, could lead to slightly higher economic growth of 2% on average for 2023.
However, if the problems of the crisis worsen further, the recovery process will be further delayed.
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Content: The current energy crisis, nuclear power generation is back in favor of countries
PARIS (AFP) - As global energy import bills skyrocket and the climate crisis rages, countries around the world are struggling to find alternative sources of energy, and their preference for nuclear power is rising.
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After Japan ’ s Fukushima disaster in 2011, countries scaled back investment in nuclear power amid concerns about nuclear safety, but after Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine in February, there was a renewed trend toward nuclear power as energy supplies tightened and Europe struggled to move away from its dependence on Russian oil and gas.
Some experts argued that nuclear power should not be included in the options under consideration; others argued that in the face of so many crises, the world's energy mix must retain nuclear power.
One of the countries that is reconsidering the use of nuclear power is Japan, which shut down many nuclear reactors due to safety concerns following the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
But Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida this week called for efforts to revive nuclear power generation and build new nuclear power plants.
Other countries that had intended to move away from nuclear power have also abandoned such plans, at least in the short term.
For example, within a month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belgium postponed the implementation of its 2025 plan to abolish nuclear energy for 10 years.
Although nuclear power currently accounts for only 10% of the world ’ s electricity generation, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) raised its forecast for nuclear power production in September, the first time since the Fukushima disaster.
The International Atomic Energy Agency now expects global nuclear power generation to double by 2050, in the best case scenario.
Even in Germany, Europe ’ s largest economy, nuclear power is no longer a taboo topic, as the current energy crisis has reignited debate over plans to close its last three plants by 2022.
As nuclear power can replace coal-fired power generation, China, the Czech Republic, India and Poland have all expressed interest in developing nuclear infrastructure, with China now having the largest number of reactors.
Britain, France and the Netherlands have similar ideas; even US President Joe Biden ’ s proposed investment plan encourages the development of nuclear power.
Experts at the UN ’ s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) acknowledge that the use of nuclear energy “may be limited by social preferences ” because the risks of a nuclear disaster and the issue of how to safely dispose of nuclear waste remain unresolved.
But some countries still oppose the use of nuclear power, such as New Zealand, and the European Union has hotly debated whether nuclear power can be considered a green energy source.

Title:

Content: Germany ’ s last three nuclear power plants may be delayed
In light of the potential energy crisis in Europe in the winter, officials revealed that Germany intends to delay the decommissioning of the last three nuclear plants in the country, although it will only temporarily prolong the life of the plants, but it marks the first time that Germany has deviated from the energy policy introduced in the millennium and has so far been enshrined by almost all parties.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) quoted senior officials as saying that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has not yet formally adopted the proposal to delay the discharge, and if it is decided to do so, there are technical and legal issues, including passing through parliament.
The cabinet is currently discussing some details, and while it will have to wait for the results of the energy demand assessment in the coming weeks to come to a conclusion, officials have revealed that everything is almost a foregone conclusion.
The last three nuclear plants in Germany were due to be decommissioned on December 31, and the government reportedly believes that a temporary delay would require two conditions: Germany is likely to suffer from a natural gas shortage and there are no safety concerns about keeping nuclear reactors in operation.
The shift in German policy underscores the shock of Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine to European political circles, especially Germany, which has been closely tied to Russia ’ s economy and has long relied on Russian gas supplies.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he began to increase military spending, send weapons to Ukraine, break years of pacifism, supply arms to conflict zones, the latest energy policy shift, and involve the almost sacred issue of “nuclear abolition ” in German politics.
The German economy ministry, which dominates energy policy, declined to comment on the report, saying only that it all depends on the outcome of an assessment of Germany ’ s energy needs.
The remaining three nuclear power plants account for about 6% of Germany's electricity generation, and if they continue to supply power, they will not have to use natural gas or coal-fired power to fill the gap, allowing some areas to continue to have natural gas.
In some parts of Germany, huge coal-fired power plants have resumed operations in response to a potential power outage from a Russian supply cut in June, disrupting Germany ’ s progress so far in reducing carbon and fighting air pollution.
The German government has drawn up two executive orders on how to reduce natural gas and energy consumption over the next two years.
Energy authorities estimate that Germany will need to reduce its use of natural gas by 20% in order to avoid a shortage of natural gas this winter and next.
It is unclear when the German authorities may extend the discharge period, with some officials offering a few months, but the ruling Liberal Democrats believe it should be extended to 2024.
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Content: Listen to news
An atom instead of a gas.
Europe is looking for an alternative to Russian fuel
Several EU countries demand to recognize nuclear energy "green" by the end of the year
Representatives of ten EU countries called for the development of nuclear energy amid rising gas prices.
They noted that this will reduce energy dependence on other states, primarily from Russia.
Nuclear power plants can be ordered in Moscow, but it is unlikely that the leading EU countries will go for it, experts say.
In addition, the construction of the nuclear power plant is a long and complex process that will not help the region in the near future.
The Prime Ministers, Ministers of Energy and Economy of France, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, Croatia and the Czech Republic made a joint statement on the importance of nuclear energy development.
They believe it is necessary to recognize nuclear energy "green" before the end of the year - this can help to cope with the crisis in the European energy market.
“The increase in energy prices shows how important it is to reduce our energy dependence on foreign countries as soon as possible.
Tensions in the supply of energy will become more frequent.
We have no choice but to diversify our sources of supply, trying not to increase energy imports, ” the joint statement said.
At the same time, the parties believe that when using nuclear energy, there are no large emissions of carbon dioxide, which is important in the context of the fight against climate change.
“It is very important to consider all low-carbon energy production technologies equally, ” the report said.
There is no unity
Meanwhile, there is a split in Europe on this issue, Stanislav Mitrakhovich, an expert of the National Energy Security Fund, a senior researcher at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Gazeta.Ru.
Some European countries categorically do not accept nuclear energy.
For example, Germany (the last nuclear power plants are due to close in 2022) and Belgium.
Italy has completely abandoned the peaceful atom, closing all nuclear power plants.
Switzerland was also opposed, but there were reports that they were thinking about using it.
But there are also European countries that either already have nuclear power, or they want to get it.
These are, in particular, France (more than 70% in the energy balance), the Czech Republic, Finland, the Netherlands.
Sweden also has nuclear power.
If the country has a large share of the energy balance is occupied by renewable energy sources, then they may not cover the necessary basic volume, Mitrahovich says.
Nuclear power is convenient for everyday consumption: the stations operate in a smooth cycle, that is, equally day and night, every day.
“When some European countries decided to abandon the atom, they created a huge problem for themselves.
Renewable sources are not reliable enough, and industrial batteries, "green" hydrogen is still unknown when they will be. "
According to Mitrahovich.
In nuclear energy, there are now prospects for those countries that have invested in it, in particular, Russia, he added.
Rosatom implements projects not only in our country, but also abroad.
European countries and the United States have lost a bit of competence in this area, as they focused on “green ” energy, said Mitrahovich.
For nuclear energy to develop, at the level of the European Union must recognize that it is carbon-free, said in an interview with Gazeta.Ru Director of the Energy Development Fund Sergei Pikin.
According to him, nuclear energy does not harm the climate, since there are no emissions from it.
As for safety, the modern reactors that are now being produced have the highest class in this indicator: they are not compared with projects such as Chernobyl or Fukushima, the expert says.
The main competitor countries that have technologies and are engaged in the construction of stations are now Russia, the United States, France, China.
However, no one will focus on nuclear energy, Pikin is sure.
In Europe, in particular, there is talk about at least preserving what is – this type of energy will not receive mass distribution.
In addition, in order for the situation to change in principle, the corresponding course of European policy must change.
Why the atom is not turned to Russia
European countries are unlikely to order “turnkey ” facilities from Russia or ask for a partial partnership in the construction of nuclear power plants, Vasily Koltashov, head of the Center for Political and Economic Research at the Institute of the New Society, believes.
The exception may be only some countries of Eastern Europe, for example, Hungary, which rely primarily on their economic interests, he added.
"However, so far such countries in Europe do not dominate," Koltashov said.
However, the policy of nuclear electrification will continue to adhere to France, he believes.
For Germany, according to Koltashov, this is now an open question, but, most likely, they will go the way of increasing supplies from Gazprom and increasing gas consumption.
At the same time, the expert noted that the construction of nuclear facilities is an “extremely complex matter ”, and to a large extent it is a“ political act ”.
“It is extremely difficult to build many stations, because it is a difficult technological process.
The same Rosatom has always had more construction agreements than facilities in operation.
And this is logical: you can not take and dramatically increase the production of nuclear power plants, ” said Koltashov.
What projects does Rosatom deal with
Rosatom ranks first in the world in terms of orders for the construction of nuclear power plants, according to the website of the state corporation.
It accounts for 17% of the global nuclear fuel market.
Now at different stages of preparation are 35 power units in 12 countries, including Turkey (Akkuyu NPP), Belarus (Belarusian NPP), India (Kudankulam NPP), Hungary (Paksh-2 NPP), Bangladesh (Ruppur NPP), China (Xudapu NPP, Tianwan NPP), Finland (Hanhikivi-1 NPP), Egypt (El Dabaa NPP).
Three new power units are being built in Russia (Kursk NPP-2, BREST-OD-300 projects).
At the same time, Rosatom recently faced problems in the world market.
In April 2021, he was excluded from the tender for the construction of a new power unit at the Dukovany nuclear power plant in the Czech Republic, the cost of which was estimated at about €6 billion.
The reason for this event was the explosion at the Czech ammunition depot in 2014, in which the Czech authorities suspect Russian special services (Moscow categorically denies these accusations).
Prior to that, the Chinese corporation China General Nuclear Power refused to participate in the tender.
Rosatom ’ s competitors have their own difficulties, says Stanislav Mitrakhovich of the National Energy Security Fund.
For example, France is building facilities in its country, but their position in the world market is weak, although in the past it had projects in China.
He also noted that the nuclear project in Finland was delayed.
In Pyhäjoki, they plan to build the Hanhikivi nuclear power plant.
The project involves the construction of a power unit with a capacity of 1.2 GW using Russian technology.
The customer is the Finnish company Fennovoima Oy.
The construction permit was planned to be obtained in 2017, but now the terms are postponed to the first half of 2022.
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Content: Read the history of the moment: why is Germany so entangled in nuclear power? | German News | DW | 14.04.2023
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Read the history of the present: why is Germany so entangled in nuclear power?
Germany was proud of its nuclear power generation technology, but at the same time the technology has been so controversial that it has finally decided that April 15, 2023 is the date of withdrawal from nuclear power.
However, as the energy crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war continues to intensify, the wisdom of the decision to say goodbye to nuclear energy has been widely discussed.
Germany ’ s nuclear policy is in dispute again
It all started with an "egg" - Germany's first nuclear reactor in Garching, near Munich, went into operation in October 1957.
Because the nuclear reactor, which belongs to the University of Munich, resembles an egg, it is nicknamed the "atomic egg".
It was a milestone in Germany's nuclear energy research and a symbol of Germany's resurgence after World War II.
The nuclear reactor, which was used for scientific purposes, remained in operation until 2000.
In 1957, Germany built its first nuclear reactor.
Three years later, in 1960, the first nuclear power plant for civilian use was built in the city of Kahl, on the banks of the Main River in Bavaria.
At that time, atomic energy was widely regarded as both safe and reliable. The 1973 oil crisis gave further impetus to the rapid development of nuclear energy in Germany.
The start of the anti-nuclear movement
Since it has been impossible to find a foolproof way to store nuclear waste, opponents have begun to question whether nuclear energy is really a clean energy source.
Thousands of protesters clashed with police during the construction of the Brockdorf nuclear power plant in the state of Shihe.
Since the 1970s, plans for the construction of the Brockdorf nuclear power plant have triggered numerous police and civil conflicts.
"Nuclear energy? No, thank you!" has become a rallying cry for environmentalists.
In the 1980s, a new political party, the Green Party, emerged in West Germany. Its members are mainly leftists, pacifists, environmentalists and anti-nuclear forces. In 1983, the Green Party entered the Bundestag.
In 1983, Green Party politicians Gert Bastian and Petra Kelly were elected to the Bundestag.
On March 28, 1979, a serious accident occurred at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania, United States. On April 26, 1986, a reactor at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine, Soviet Union, exploded, causing the worst nuclear disaster in history.
Radiation clouds spread throughout Europe.
The accident also marked a turning point in discussions about nuclear technology in Germany.
At the time, Germany was still divided.
In East Germany under the Communist Party, the public received almost no information about the nuclear accident and its effects.
West Germany, on the other hand, was in a state of confusion and politicians were helpless.
People were unprepared for a nuclear leak, and the government was unable to provide guidelines and response strategies for the time being.
A hastily formed crisis management team was also disbanded shortly afterwards.
The Chernobyl nuclear accident has caused widespread concern in Germany.
People are buying iodine.
A large quantity of fruit, vegetables and milk in the supermarket was ordered to be removed from the shelves because of concerns about nuclear radiation.
Children were banned from playing in the sand pools and citizens were warned not to go out in the rain.
Although the health effects of radiation were not detected in Germany, the accident led to the introduction of nationwide radiation monitoring in Germany, which eventually led to the establishment of the Federal Ministry of the Environment.
Plans to build a nuclear waste treatment plant in the Bavarian town of Wackersdorf have sparked serious riots.
The clashes left several protesters and civil servants dead and hundreds injured.
The project was finally halted in 1989, the first major victory of the German environmental movement.
And...
In 2011, protesters handcuffed themselves to the tracks in an attempt to block trains carrying nuclear waste.
Meanwhile, in northern Germany, Gorleben in Lower Saxony became a symbol of the struggle against nuclear waste, and the town was designated to temporarily store nuclear waste until a permanent storage site was identified.
The first shipment of nuclear waste arrived in the town on 24 April 1995.
A long farewell to nuclear power - Germany's nuclear withdrawal process after many setbacks
In 2001, Schroeder's center-left coalition government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Green Party reached an agreement with major energy companies to phase out nuclear power.
All 19 nuclear power plants in Germany have been given operating timelines and the last one is required to be shut down by 2021.
In 2001, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder announced that Germany would phase out nuclear power generation.
In 2010, the center-right government led by Chancellor Angela Merkel withdrew the nuclear withdrawal agreement.
It also decided to extend the operating time of nuclear power plants.
However, the third major nuclear accident in the world has caused a change in Germany's nuclear energy policy. On March 11, 2011, the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan caused by the earthquake and tsunami.
The impact of the accident on Germany is even greater than that of Japan.
As a veteran physicist, German Chancellor Angela Merkel unexpectedly changed her usual stance on nuclear energy policy.
Merkel suddenly announced that the era of nuclear power in Germany will end by the end of 2022. On July 30, 2011, the German Bundestag voted to approve the resolution.
After years of fierce fighting, the Brockdorf nuclear power plant in the state of Ishih will finally become history in 2021 after 35 years of operation.
In 2017, Germany decided to start a nationwide search for a safe place to store highly radioactive nuclear waste, with the mission to be completed by 2031.
At the end of 2021, anti-nuclear activists celebrated the closure of a nuclear power plant in North Germany.
Rethinking the nuclear policy.
The war in Ukraine has made Germany anxious to get rid of its energy dependence on Russia, which has also reignited the already ironclad policy of denuclearization.
The coalition leader has spearheaded a proposal to extend the operating time of nuclear power plants to replace natural gas from Russia with nuclear power.
In August 2022, CDU Chairman Meltz and CSU Chairman Soder both put forward the idea of extending the time limit for nuclear power operations.
Christian Lindner, finance minister of the business-oriented Liberal Democratic Party (FDP), immediately backed a return to nuclear power.
His party is junior partner in a centre-left coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens.
The latter will find it difficult to agree to an extension because opposition to nuclear power is one of their core issues.
But in the summer of 2022, no one in Germany completely ruled out that possibility.
LDP finance minister Lindner, who is focused on business interests, was also quick to join the pro-nuclear camp.
But for the Green Party, which is also part of the ruling coalition, the possibility of agreeing to extend the operating time of nuclear power plants is slim, because opposition to nuclear power is their basic principle.
Anything is possible in Germany in 2022.
Can nuclear power be a climate savior?
Editor: This article was originally published in August 2022
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However, recent geopolitical events, particularly the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have complicated this transition, leading to renewed debates about the role of nuclear power in Germany’s energy mix.

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Content: Global News
Germany says restarting nuclear plants is not a solution to gas shortages
Speaking at the "Right Questions" event organized by the German newspaper Bild on Friday evening, Birbuck said she believed a final exit from nuclear power by the end of this year was right based on "the facts I know now and given what the challenge is."
She said the challenge was not electricity supply but gas, saying “I don ’ t see nuclear power as a solution ” in light of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the looming energy crisis.
According to the current law, the remaining three nuclear power plants in Germany must be closed by the end of this year at the latest, as the three plants account for 6% of the total electricity generated in Germany, and so far about 10% of the electricity in Germany is generated by natural gas.
In repeated remarks, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck stressed that the main shortage is not electricity, but gas and heating for the industrial sector, and nuclear power plants cannot address this.
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Content: Germany shuts down three of its six nuclear power plants to switch to renewable energy
Saturday 01 January 2022 - 12: 41 GMT
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Content: World Vision: Europe 's lack of energy, no operation, aid to Ukraine may become empty talk
July 15, 2022 00: 04
Eastern Network Television
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After the Russian army claimed to occupy the Luhansk Oblast in Ukraine, the attack slowed down, and the Kiev government began a public debate.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Leonid Leznikov said that President Zelensky has ordered the assembly of millions of troops equipped with Western weapons, which will soon recover the southern territory from Russia, and called on the West to continue to "water" aid.
On the other hand, Europe continues to emerge as the negative impact of the full range of sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia continues to emerge, and many are mired in the energy crisis, and inflation has caused everything to become expensive, causing the resentment of the European people to rise to a boiling point.
As energy prices continue to be high, Russia will temporarily suspend the supply of natural gas to Germany for 10 days on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
Previously, Canada refused to return the Nord Stream 1 gas turbine sent by the Siemens subsidiary to Russia on the grounds of sanctions, which caused the latter to sharply reduce natural gas supply.
Germany is worried that if Nord Stream 1 continues to close after the annual review, it will paralyze domestic heavy industry and insufficient natural gas reserves to meet winter demand.
Despite Zelensky's objections, the Germans continued to head hard to retrieve parts of the Nord Stream pipeline from Canada.
European countries obviously did not expect that the Russian-Ukrainian war would cause such a big problem for energy supply.
Under the severe shortage of natural gas supply, Germany relies on natural gas production industry can only struggle to survive, and some are even more lifeless.
The Netherlands, which plans to stop importing Russian natural gas this year, in addition to the road blockage demonstrations caused by domestic farmers due to the emission reduction plan, and recently fell into an unprecedented energy crisis due to Germany's intention to completely shut down the nuclear power plant, can only beg Berlin to extend the operation of the nuclear power unit.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, most of the European people supported the government's punitive measures against Russia.
But the theory is very full, the reality is very bones, with the protracted war, coupled with soaring prices and soaring inflation, Europeans are gradually disgusted with the Russian-Ukrainian war, and some people are dissatisfied with the government's sacrifice of their own interests and blindly follow US policy.
According to a survey by financial bloggers, 59% of Europeans say they are unwilling to pay the price for defending democracy in Ukraine.
In Hamburg, Germany, the local government housed Ukrainian refugees in luxury apartments in the city center, at a cost of €3,600 per month per apartment, paid by the government.
Some reporters teased that this building, more than 100 meters high, is becoming the grave of the German taxpayer.
The Scottish government has suspended the intake of Ugandan refugees for three months due to a lack of suitable housing.
From the country and even the people, Europe is gradually tired of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the Kiev government may only hope that the United States will do more and better in the future.

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The United States has issued a "Withdrawal Order" in Ukraine.
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Germany relies heavily on Russian natural gas to limit Europe ’ s response to Putin
The situation between Russia and Ukraine remains tense, and the United States continues to mediate, but the neighboring countries of Western Europe have proved incompetent, mainly because Germany, Europe ’ s largest economy, relies heavily on Russian gas supplies, leaving Europe with little leverage to counter Russia.
The Wall Street Journal reported on the 23rd that the current EU average of 40% of natural gas imports from Russia, and Germany ’ s rate is more than 50%, the world ’ s largest Russian natural gas importer; Germany ’ s natural gas is not only used for heating, but also accounts for 25% for electricity generation.
With the gradual abolition of nuclear and coal-fired power in Germany, demand for natural gas will only increase; in the process, Germany has relied on cheap natural gas supplies from Russia, rather than the more expensive Qatar or the United States, which has left Germany ’ s infrastructure dilapidated, as a country highly dependent on natural gas, without even its own gas terminals.
Erich Vad, a former German chancellor ’ s national security adviser, said that while Russia has “weaponized ” natural gas in recent years and threatened to“ cut off gas ” to deal with eastern European countries, it has never done so to Germany, giving the atmosphere that “Russia is a reliable energy supplier. ”
Although relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated in recent years, Germany is clearly not prepared: a 2015 study led by the German Ministry of Economic Affairs found that Germany ’ s natural gas storage facilities must be at least 60% full to meet domestic demand, and Gas Infrastructure Europe recently pointed out that Germany ’ s gas reserves are only 44% in the months before warmer weather.
Germany ’ s Federal Bureau of Statistics noted that energy prices surged 69% in December from 2020 due to a shortage of natural gas in Europe, linked to reduced exports from Russia, and Markus Krebber, chief executive of German power giant RWE, said this month that Germany ’ s gas “cannot escape its dependence on Russia in the short term. ”
Constanze Stelzenmüller, a member of the Brookings Institution, said Germany ’ s energy policy “grossly underestimates national security considerations ” and that its vulnerability would be exposed in the face of Russian aggression.
Gustav Gressel, a senior policy scholar at the European Association for Foreign Relations, a think-tank, said that the association had been alerted to Germany ’ s natural gas problem for years, and now that the security of the whole of Europe was at stake, Germany must show a willingness to pay a price to defend it.
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Content: GOLOS.EU
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Mikhail Chaplyga: Germany is forced to buy electricity in France
On the website of the publication « GOLOS.EU » published a new record of political journalist Mikhail Chaplyga: Germany sharply increased imports of electricity, including nuclear energy, the day after the closure of its own nuclear power plants.
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Russian military invades Ukraine to attack nuclear power plants, bombarding Putin: the main threat to world security
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Thomas Greenfield said the Russian military is approaching Ukraine ’ s second largest nuclear power plant.
The second largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine, Yuzhnoukrainsk.
(AFP)
2022 / 03 / 05 20: 22
The National Nuclear Abolition Action Platform issued a statement today, inviting Taiwan citizens' groups to join in strongly condemning the huge risk and crisis of nuclear pollution caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The statement will be translated into English next week and published internationally in the name of Taiwanese civil organizations to support Ukraine.
Nuclear waste platform said that nuclear energy and radioactive waste are already dangerous, armed conflict makes the danger even more, the Chernobyl nuclear disaster site was occupied by the Russian military, military action in the nuclear disaster zone, has triggered global concern about the spread of radiation pollution.
In fact, on the morning of March 3, the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant (Zaporozhye) in southern Ukraine was a fire, only a step away from the nuclear disaster, and became the world ’ s headlines. The damage will be more likely to be beyond control, and the damage could far outweigh the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear disasters, contaminating not only Ukrainian soil, but also neighboring European countries and Russia.
Ukraine's nuclear power consumption is 51%, the third highest in the world, this is the first time in history that a war has been fought in a country so dependent on nuclear power use, and nuclear power plants and nuclear disaster contaminated areas have become military targets, whether accidental or deliberate attacks, nuclear power plants and nuclear fuel cooling tanks are designed to cope with the state of war, and should not withstand missile bombing and artillery fire. Uncontrollable accidents and devastating disasters, such as seismic damage, fire, mechanical failure, cooling water loss, loss of external power, employee evacuation, or loss of work caused by casualties, increase the likelihood of a nuclear disaster outbreak.
Radiation pollution knows no borders or enemies, and if the large-scale nuclear pollution incident that causes global concern, the environment, ecology and human health will suffer huge losses, and the legacy of nuclear pollution can not be ended for generations.
In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the deployment of nuclear weapons in Moscow is on high alert in response to various international sanctions and assistance to Ukraine. The destruction of nuclear weapons will not cause a serious humanitarian disaster.
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Content: Magazine

Washington and the world

Opinion | To Truly Take on Russia, America Must Become the Arsenal of Clean Energy

The war in Ukraine underscores the need for Europe to wean itself off Russian gas.

With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, democracies of the world got another reminder — as if we needed one — of how dangerous it is to rely on energy imported from aggressive, authoritarian states.

The European Union is dependent on Russia for almost half of its natural gas and a quarter of its oil. Germany alone imports 55 percent of the gas it consumes from Putin’s petro-state. As part of its invasion strategy, Russia thought it could use its natural gas and oil to blackmail Europe into passivity. Europe is belatedly beginning to shut off the Russian spigot, but it will pay a heavy economic price for the delay.

And for Europe’s energy switch to succeed, the United States must step up.

Just as we were the Arsenal of Democracy when fascism threatened Europe 80 years ago, today we must become the Arsenal of Clean Energy. That means we should finance and export clean energy to Europe in large quantities as quickly as possible. This approach would help protect our own security and economic interests, as well as the sovereignty, democracies, and economies of Europe, all while working to combat climate change.

Our goals should be: 1) make European energy secure; 2) help shift European countries to cleaner energy; and 3) create a massive clean energy market that strengthens supply chains and job creation in the U.S.

To make this work, we must avoid both conventional and magical thinking. This is not about sending cheap Chinese equipment to Europe, and it’s not about somehow shifting to solar power in the cloudy regions of Central and Eastern Europe. In the European Union, it’s still natural gas that drives the economy. Gas heats buildings, generates electricity, and provides industrial power and heat in about equal measure. Oil powers transportation and is used for petrochemicals. Whatever replaces Russian natural gas and oil must meet all these needs. The refrain from some quarters that we just need to go “all renewables” and make everything more efficient ignores all of Europe’s other energy needs. That is why, as one example, Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovenia, and (before it was invaded) Ukraine all want to build American nuclear power plants, and France and the Netherlands have plans to build non-Russian, non-Chinese plants.

Of course, it’s not at all clear whether America can become the Arsenal of Clean Energy, given today’s bitterly divided politics. Yet clean, firm energy — energy that is always on — remains one of the few areas where there is deep, bipartisan support in Congress. Democrats have long championed the need for a clean energy transition. And now that Republicans have embraced defending the sovereignty of Europe against the immediate threat from authoritarian Russia, the moment should be met with urgency.

That starts with an energy version of the “Candy Bombers” who supplied Berlin during the Soviet Union’s blockade in 1948. In this case, we could provide a temporary natural gas lifeline to Europe as they wean themselves off Russian energy. America has some additional capacity, and more coming online very soon, to send liquefied natural gas to Europe. We should combine a near-term increase in U.S. gas production and exports to Europe with assistance for European countries to, over the medium-term, reduce their reliance on natural gas by switching to other, lower-carbon fuels and increased energy efficiency.

Second, to ensure this lifeline leads Europe to a safe and sustainable future, the United States needs to create an American clean energy sovereignty fund. We should commit to $10 billion per year for the next decade to finance the export of U.S. hydrogen, nuclear, and carbon capture technology that can be deployed across Europe. The new technologies should be supported by both U.S. and European supply chains and workers to ensure economic growth across both continents. This government-backed entity would provide a significant cost-share for countries importing U.S. clean energy, particularly technologies that will be primarily made in and exported from the U.S.

As we are seeing now with Germany’s reconsideration of its decision to close its nuclear plants, even renewable-heavy countries need firm clean energy provided by technologies like nuclear power. This is even more important in industrial areas of Eastern Europe that need both the steady electricity and high heat that nuclear, or hydrogen, can provide.

Finally, as all of Washington knows by now, personnel is policy. To underscore the urgency of this mission, the Biden administration should create a new, senior position at the National Security Council to manage clean, firm energy and coordinate the alphabet soup of agencies involved. This position would oversee a new “Team Energy” of public and private sector experts who can cut through the bureaucracy.

The administration should also prioritize nominations to fill the two long vacant posts on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These nominees must support the president’s view that exporting nuclear energy is vital to addressing both climate change and energy sovereignty. At a time of crisis like the one in which we now find ourselves, speed matters. Companies and countries shouldn’t have to wait for American technologies because of opaque and arcane contracting or licensing processes.

The invasion of Ukraine is not an aberration. It is the start of a frightening new era that requires bold American and global democratic leadership and a long-overdue recognition that energy and security are inextricably linked. Russia and China have acted on this reality to push their authoritarian, expansionist agenda for more than a decade.

It is time we build on the legacy of U.S. leadership in World War II and the Cold War and meet this moment. If we become the Arsenal of Clean Energy, we can support democracy, address the climate crisis, and create new economic opportunities across America.

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Content: DON'T MISS : Talking Africa Podcast - Gates Foundation CEO: 'Stop stockpiling & deploy vaccines to Africa to avoid costly new variants'

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to trigger seismic shift to African gas

By David Whitehouse
Posted on Thursday, 24 February 2022 10:52

Africa is in prime position to benefit as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ramps up the pressures on global energy supply.

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine today. Resources to limit the impact on global oil and gas supply are “extremely limited”,  according to a note from Vanda Insights in Singapore.

OPEC+ has some spare capacity, but it is in oil, the research says. “Should the Kremlin decide to cut off gas exports to Europe, all the world’s gas producers put together do not have the spare capacity to plug the gap.”

Before the invasion, Germany had already said it was suspending the certification process of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. That increases the chances that Russia will halt gas flows into Europe, says Sindre Knutsson, head of gas markets research at Rystad Energy in Oslo.

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Content: Ukraine / Russia / Merkel
The invasion of Ukraine brought Merkel down from the altar.
Shortly before Russia ’ s assault on Ukraine, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was touted as the man most likely to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to let go of the kangos.
However, as Russian artillery shells began to fall on Ukrainian soil, Merkel ’ s 16-year rule also cast a shadow, and some observers now question whether her past policy of appeasement toward Putin has actually weakened Germany, and even Europe.
Of course, there are also advocates for Merkel, saying that Merkel's government has long been limited by the Social Democratic Party, and the German Social Democratic Party is the main culprit.
The problem is that the German CDU and the Social Democratic Party both fell at Putin ’ s feet, which is the most important issue for Germany to review.
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According to Agence France-Presse today quoted German media commentary that the Russian-Ukrainian War involved German defense energy issues, and Merkel's decision sparked a debate.
Merkel, once hailed as the leader of the free world, has also been accused of making Europe increasingly dependent on Russian energy and neglecting the German defense forces. Merkel seems to have misjudged Putin ’ s ambitions, which could have devastating consequences.
The conservative German newspaper Die Welt has always spoken out against Merkel, who has been criticized by the media for promoting diplomacy and attempting to bind the regime with agreements and commercial contracts that now appear to be a mistake.
“What Germany and Europe have experienced in the past few days is a fundamental departure from Merkel ’ s policy of ensuring peace and freedom by signing agreements with tyrants. ”
In 2014, 36% of Germany ’ s total natural gas imports came from Russia, up from 55% in less than 10 years. This shows that Germany is increasingly dependent on Russia for energy.
The controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline was also finalized after Russia annexed Crimea, formerly Ukraine.
As a result, Germany is almost at a loss as the United States and other allies impose sanctions on Russian oil and gas.
In addition, Germany ’ s years of underinvestment in the military have also weakened the image of the German defense.
Allies such as the United States have repeatedly urged Germany, Europe ’ s largest economy, to meet the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ’ s defense spending target of at least 2 percent of gross domestic product.
Former German defense minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, one of Merkel ’ s closest aides, denounced Germany ’ s years of failure to strengthen its military as a “historic setback. ”
"After the events in Georgia, Crimea, and Donbas, we are not ready for anything that will really deter Putin," he tweeted.
The regions she mentioned were targets of Russian aggression during Merkel ’ s time in power.
The report said former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder had personal ties to Putin and had recently refused to resign from his positions at Rosneft and Gazprom.
However, critics of Merkel say that Schroder was right to start the Nord Stream 1 project, but Merkel also approved the Nord Stream 2 project.
The $11 billion Nord Stream 2 project is at issue because it bypassed Ukraine, leaving Kiev without a gas transit fee.
The plan was shelved after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.
According to the Sueddeutsche Zeitung, Merkel ’ s aggressive pursuit of close economic ties with Russia has led Germany to rely on Russian energy, and her mistakes are now bitter and must be held accountable.
On the geopolitical front, the Merkel administration ’ s decision in 2008 to ignore U.S. pressure to allow Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO has now been put under scrutiny.
But Joerg Forbrig, director of Middle East Europe at the Washington-based German Marshall Fund, believes Merkel is not too naive about Putin, and she is well aware of Putin ’ s personality and Russia ’ s current state, except that during her 16 years in power, she has had to work for her coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party. s) under pressure to make decisions, and the SPD is inclined to make good with Russia.
While some analysts blame Merkel for glaring errors on the energy issue, they also say that the Russian issue will not shake Merkel ’ s overall political achievements, and that she is generally seen as leading Germany through crises many times and working to keep the European Union together.
Marina Henke, a professor of international relations at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, said this was because the SPD was more responsible than Merkel for Germany ’ s past stance on Russia.
In a meeting, Merkel told Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the leader of the Belarusian opposition, not to expect too much from her as German chancellor, because her room for maneuvering was “much smaller than many people think. ”
Merkel, Fbrich said, “knows very accurately that there are limits to his power. ”

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Content: Energy security now controls politics.
Energy security now controls politics.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine was not the main reason for this trend, but it strengthened strongly: the energy crisis in Europe, India and China began several months before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and raised the prices of energy sources to historic levels at the time, and drought on the one hand and the processes of replacing other energy sources, made matters worse.
The most important of which is the visit of the leaders of the United States and European countries to the oil and gas countries in an attempt to win their favor, and the signing of contracts for immediate or future supplies, and this includes the expected visit of the Chinese President to Saudi Arabia. The US made an exception for six months to develop its joint projects with the Venezuelan oil company in order to increase production, and required that oil from these projects be exported to the United States only, and before that the Biden administration withdrew 180 million barrels from the strategic inventory in an attempt to provide supplies to refineries on the one hand and reduce oil prices on the other, and succeeded in doing so.
Large countries such as China and Germany have signed huge contracts with Qatar to secure future LNG shipments, while U.S. companies are expanding LNG terminals to boost exports to Europe due to growing demand there.
Some countries provided direct subsidies to their people to compensate for higher energy prices, while others tried to introduce a price cap to prevent energy prices from rising.
Japan has been granted an exemption from the G7 from the price cap agreement on Russian oil exports because of its investments in Russia's Sakhalin field.
Hungary has also been exempted from the European embargo on Russian oil and the price cap, all to boost energy security in these two countries, and China has signed huge contracts with Russia to build more gas pipelines to transport Russian gas to Chinese markets.
There is no evidence of interest in the issue of energy security more than sacrificing all the policies of climate change and ignoring the environment with the return of several European countries to coal, oil and firewood, all this so that the lights do not go out or die from the cold, and also India and China ignore the price ceiling imposed by the G7 countries and the European Union.
Experts agree that government policies and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are the main reasons for raising energy prices with different sources, but popular anger and demonstrations in some countries made governments look for scapegoats, so they blamed energy companies, especially oil companies, and some countries, led by Britain, decided to impose exceptional taxes on the profits of these companies.
This policy action may work in elections, but it harms energy security in this country in the medium and long term because it reduces investment, and makes companies tend to invest elsewhere, and as mentioned in a previous article, it is interesting that part of the profits of oil companies goes to invest in renewable energy, especially wind, and losing these things to the government means not to do these projects.
Energy Security and Electric Vehicles
Electric cars were adopted to eliminate carbon dioxide, which results from burning gasoline and diesel in car engines, because they see carbon dioxide as one of the causes of climate change, and some considered that the adoption of electric cars enhances energy security because of the use of local energy sources such as solar and wind to generate electricity in place of gasoline and diesel, which are imported either in the form of crude oil or petroleum products resources.
In some countries nuclear power is used, which is also a domestic source, in others coal is used to generate electricity and some of it may be imported, in which case emissions fall in places where electric vehicles are used, but they increase in areas where power plants are used.
The problem is that electric cars began to threaten energy security in many places around the world, and some governments began to demand owners of electric cars after charging them at certain times, and this is repeated in the US state of California specifically, and with the expansion of the purchase of electric cars, this is expected to happen in more countries, and more times.
The specialized energy platform published news two days ago that the Swiss Federal Council is ready to pass legislation “Restrictions and Prohibition of Electric Power Consumption Law ” to address the expected electricity shortage, which may lead to a partial ban on the use of electric vehicles, and is expected to include four stages of escalation in restrictions on the consumption of electricity, depending on the conditions of supply.
The mention of electric vehicles came in the third phase of escalation, as the article provides for several cases only, in which it is allowed to drive, and the article states that “it is allowed to use the electric car on the necessary trips and go to work, or to visit the doctor and attend religious events, in addition to access to the court in case of need. ”
On the other hand, the exaggeration of the effects of electric vehicles in the demand for oil has led to a decline in investment in it, which means lower production and higher prices and this threatens the energy security of all countries of the world.
In short, electric vehicles have become a threat to energy security in many countries, and the solution lies in striking a balance between energy security and environmental security.
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January 7, 07: 28
Pushkov called one decision of Germany, which “broke the backbone ” of relations with Russia
Senator Pushkov: Germany ’ s refusal to supply gas led to a big break with Russia
Germany ’ s decision to refuse gas supplies from Russia via Nord Stream has led to a “big gap ” between Russia and Europe.
This was stated by Senator Alexei Pushkov.
“Germany has broken the backbone of previous relations, abandoning Russian gas that came to it through the Nord Stream, ” he wrote in a telegram channel.
Pushkov stressed that the explosions on the gas pipelines put an end to even the theoretical possibility of resuming the transit of blue fuel to Germany.
In addition, according to the politician, the termination of Russian gas supplies to Germany, which previously served as the basis of “special relations ” between the countries even during the Cold War, throws the situation back about 50 years, when Moscow and Berlin signed a gas – pipe agreement.
Earlier, Life said that Germany had failed a plan to switch to renewable energy sources.
The reason lies in the stagnation of the expansion of wind energy and the lack of necessary energy storage facilities.
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Content: Mar 4, 2022

A look at Europe’s reliance on Russian gas – and what could happen if Russia cuts it off

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Russia’s control over natural gas in Europe has been one of the subplots to follow leading up to its invasion into Ukraine. Europe has long relied on Russian gas to help support its wind and solar power efforts, and it keeps many a home warm in the winter, especially Germany. For more on this, we spoke with Vijay Vaitheeswaran, global energy and climate innovation editor at The Economist. The Labor Department issues its February jobs report, and its expected to show more growth as the pandemic is showing signs of subsiding.

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What would Europe do if Russia cuts off natural gas?

Unpacking Europe's reliance on Russian energy — and the risks that now carries.
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Jonathan Frewin Producer, BBC
Jay Siebold Technical Director
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Content: General Supervision
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Morgan: Germany is following the Russo-Ukrainian war and is committed to a renewable energy transition
Jennifer Morgan, Minister of State and Special Envoy for International Climate Action at the German Foreign Ministry, stressed that Germany attaches great importance to the Russian aggression on Ukraine, including the emphasis on energy supplies announced by Germany, stressing its commitment to move quickly to renewable energy sources and improve energy efficiency, stressing: “We must stop relying on Russia ’ s supply of fuel. ”
In an exclusive interview with Good Morning Egypt, Channel One, Jennifer Morgan said that Egypt and Germany have a long history of cooperation on renewable energy – waste disposal or city solutions, and we aim to push this cooperation forward at the upcoming climate conference.
Morgan added that the upcoming climate conference will work to reduce the temperature of the earth by one and a half degrees Celsius, noting that Egypt is seeking international contributions in this field, noting: "We have seen great work by international institutions, whether in cities or in the agricultural field in Egypt."

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Content: Sunday 26 November 1443 AH - 26 June 2022 |
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Grim scenarios.
Putin pushes German economy to the brink of collapse
German authorities have taken emergency measures, including increasing the use of coal to secure its energy needs amid declining volumes from Russia.
For some time now, German authorities have been concerned about the cessation of industrial furnaces due to the scarcity of energy resources following the Russian war on Ukraine.
For decades, these furnaces have been operating without interruption, “but if they suddenly cool, the molten material will harden and break the entire system, a concern that engulfs Europe ’ s largest economy. ”
After President Vladimir Putin cut energy flows to Europe by 60%, German experts and the administration of Chancellor Olaf Schulz this week looked as if they were waiting for bleak scenarios for the coming winter.
Klaus Müller, who heads the German federal network BNetzA, said Friday in an interview with Deutschland Funk radio: “If we had a very cold winter, it wouldn ’ t be pretty. ”
Ovens need 75% of their natural gas consumption to prevent the molten glass inside from overrunning and destroying the furnace.
For decades, Germany has thrived on cheap gas prices, and the response to the economy ’ s growing needs has often been the construction of a new pipeline to Russia.
But this era is now, and German companies are beginning to face a new and unusual reality.
Quick Solutions
There will be quick fixes, such as reviving polluting coal plants and converting fuel into industrial processes, despite their risks, because the transition to affordable renewable energy will take years.
Companies that manufacture metal, paper and even food may be forced to scale back or close German production sites, accelerating the ongoing mass migration of manufacturing jobs and leaving lasting damage to the country ’ s economic landscape.
Wolfgang Han, managing director of Energy Consulting Group GmbH, said: “Companies will move production to where there is a competitive line, and this will not be in Germany. ”
“You can ’ t correct 20 years of policy mistakes in two or three years. ”
The latest figures show it will take 115 days to reach the government ’ s target of filling gas reserves to 90% by November.
This timeframe assumes that flows remain at the current level, which is unlikely given the Kremlin ’ s increasingly aggressive stance toward Europe in response to sanctions imposed by Russia ’ s war in Ukraine.
The energy crisis
Gas storage levels in Germany are still below 60% of its capacity.
In response to the bleak outlook, Germany, which still depends on Russia for more than a third of its gas supplies, raised its threat level to the second-highest “alarm ” stage on Thursday.
If the pressure intensifies, Germany could start rationing supplies, the Bloomberg report confirms.
The moment of truth is likely to come next month when Nord Stream pipeline pumping for scheduled maintenance drops, as Germany fears pumping will never return.
German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said Thursday in an interview with public broadcaster ZDF in particular: “I ’ ll have to lie if I say I ’ m not afraid of it. ”
If energy suppliers continue to pile up losses by forcing them to cover lost Russian supplies at high prices, there is a risk of a wider collapse.
Uniper SE, Germany ’ s largest importer of Russian gas, has warned it could struggle to meet supply contracts to domestic utilities and manufacturers if Moscow lengthens or increases gas cuts.
The crisis has already spread far beyond Germany, where 12 EU member states have been affected and 10 countries have issued an early warning under the gas security regulation.
Rising European demand for LNG will also affect poorer countries around the world as they struggle to compete for shipments.
Estonian President Kaja Kalas, speaking at an EU summit in Brussels on Friday, said “we are concerned ” that Russia will cut off gas supplies to Europe.
“We need to be ready for an energy mix.
Different, unified LNG purchases and doing these things together. ”
Scope of risk
German economic institutes warned in April that an immediate halt to Russian imports of oil and natural gas would result in production being hit by 220 billion euros over the next two years.
Stefan Kothes, an economist at the Kiel Institute for World Economics, said that while it may be more moderate now with high storage levels, predicting the outcome of an unprecedented situation is difficult.
The Bundesbank estimates that the national economy will contract by more than 3% in 2023 if Russian energy supplies stop.
This would be the worst recession outside the recessions triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and the global financial crisis.

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Content: Germany starts tough energy conservation measures
Germany starts tough energy conservation measures
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In this episode, we discuss: the IAEA mission leaves Kiev and heads to Zaporozhye; Germany is switching to energy saving status from tomorrow; a leader in the coordination framework speaks to Sputnik about the situation in Iraq; the Association of Lebanese Depositors and the Free Trade Unions demonstrate in front of the parliament.
Germany has decided to introduce an energy-saving system, such as setting the temperature of heating devices, turning them off completely in public places, and stopping the use of hot water for hand washing.
In an interview with Unfettered, European affairs expert Aktham Suleiman said:
"These measures of course will not suffice, and this reduction of energy consumption will not save much, the non-operation of any small plant will save more, and therefore are absurd measures, and this is evidence of the failed management of the crisis, and the wrong decision to stop" Nord Stream 2 ", and now the German citizen will not be silent on these measures, not because he does not want to pay a higher bill, but because he is treated lightly. And don ’ t sacrifice Germany for Ukraine, and today the headline of the most important German newspapers,“ Germany is still an occupied country, ” will lead to protests that have already started here and there.
Zakharova: Do Europeans understand that nuclear security is at stake?
The correspondent of "Sputnik" reported that the Russian army shot down a Ukrainian drone near the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, while Russian security forces who arrived at the scene said that this drone was Polish-made.
This comes in conjunction with the imminent arrival of the mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency to Zaporozhye, as the official spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, commented on this visit by saying to "Sputnik":
“They are discussing what can be done to make our lives more difficult, there is a nuclear facility near them that is being bombed every day, and I think this is what EU leaders should be discussing, to keep the safety and health of their citizens, do these people really not understand that what is at stake now is the issue of nuclear safety?
Because the regime in Kiev has reached the point where the station is being used as a tool of blackmail, perhaps, because there is an understanding in the ranks of the European Union that they cannot do anything, and that the Kiev regime is simply uncontrollable in Brussels and it just obeys Washington, where are the people in the European Union pretending to be environmentalists, feeling soft on deer, hedgehogs and hares?
Where are all these people?
Do they understand what's going on?
"They are supplying the Kiev regime with money and weapons that are firing at a nuclear facility in central Europe."
Details in the audio file...
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Content: Han Yonghong: The gap between Europe and the United States
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After Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine, the rare coordinated pace between Europe and the United States did not last long, and the issue of the Russian energy embargo caused the first crack in the picture of European and American cooperation.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced a total ban on Russian oil, gas and coal imports on Tuesday, and Britain followed suit, but this time the continental powers refused to cooperate.
German Chancellor Gerhard Schorz said in a public statement that Germany and European partners deliberately excluded energy from the sanctions against Russia, because there is no other way for Europe to guarantee heating, transportation and industrial production of energy, other than to import from Russia.
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Content: Southern Federal
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In Germany, were afraid of the termination of Russian energy supplies
German authorities believe that in response to the sanctions imposed by the EU against Russia due to the recent events in Ukraine, Moscow may stop supplying energy to Europe.
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In the shadow of Russian skepticism and German hope, the world awaits the return of Nord Stream 1 to pump gas at full capacity after the completion of the maintenance work.
Natural gas has become a weapon of war between Russia and the West since Moscow entered Ukraine on Feb. 24, as oil and gas prices soared amid fears of supply runs out.
The story this time is about the Russian Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, what is his story?
On July 11, Gazprom began routine maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for 10 days, reducing gas supplies to Europe.
Russian energy giant Gazprom has cut the amount of oil it sends to Germany via Nord Stream 1 by about 60% in recent weeks, blaming it for not receiving a Siemens gas turbine sent for maintenance to Canada.
Nord Stream 1 has a capacity of 40 per cent since June 14, with Russia drastically cutting supplies and Russian gas giant Gazprom attributing the 60 per cent decline to equipment problems that cannot be resolved due to sanctions.
After intense pressure from Germany, Canada on Saturday agreed to an exemption in its sanctions against Russia to allow the export of an important piece of equipment expected to help resolve equipment problems on the pipeline and restore supply levels to normal.
But the Ukrainian government has criticised the move, saying it would encourage Moscow to use natural gas to gain concessions from the West.
German Optimism
The operator of the largest natural gas reservoirs in Germany ’ s northwestern region of Reiden is optimistic about continued filling until next winter, despite the uncertainty surrounding Nord Stream 1.
Astura said on Wednesday it had not yet noticed "any traces of the shutdown of the Nord Stream line" and added that it "assumes storage will continue".
The company added that the purchase and trade of natural gas is not part of its business, noting that it could not provide details regarding, for example, the traders or the source of the gas quantities.
Preliminary data from the operator of the German gas network Gazkid indicated that the gas is expected to be pumped back to Nord Stream 1 on Thursday after the completion of the annual regular maintenance work.
However, it remains uncertain whether and how much gas will actually be pumped from tomorrow, as the notifications the company receives today could change even shortly before gas starts pumping.
Reducing gas volumes can slow down the filling of the tank.
Gazprom Germania, which was owned by the Russian company Gazprom and is currently under the custody of the German Federal Network Agency, operated the reservoir station at Reiden.
This plant in Rieden has about 20% of the available gas storage capacity in Germany.
The Federal Network Agency in Germany announced that the amount of gas that will flow through the Nord Stream 1 line from Russia from Thursday, after the completion of maintenance work, will exceed the amount that came before the start of maintenance work on the line.
The head of the agency, Klaus Mueller, wrote on Twitter on Wednesday that the amount announced for its arrival tomorrow is 800 GWh.
According to Nord Stream 1, the amount pumped in the days leading up to the maintenance work was close to 700 GWh.
Klaus added that the expected new amount is still less than half the maximum amount that can be pumped across the line.
On the other hand, Gazkid, which operates the two receiving points of Nord Stream 1 in the northeastern German city of Lubmen, predicted that the gas transmission will be operational tomorrow at the same level as it was before the start of maintenance work, that is, 40% of the maximum transmission capacity of the line.
Gazprom responded.
Russian energy company Gazprom announced on Wednesday on Telegram that it had not yet received the documents for the Nord Stream 1 turbine, which was maintained in Canada, and therefore questioned the safety of the line ’ s operation.
Gazprom has not yet obtained from Siemens any official documentation that would allow the installation of a gas turbine engine at the Portovaya gas compressor plant under the terms of sanctions imposed by Canada and the European Union.
Gazprom explained that the guaranteed return of the gas turbines after their maintenance is necessary for the safe operation of the Nord Stream 1 “Under these circumstances, Gazprom once again appealed to Siemens to provide the documentation. ”
The Siemens Group has nothing to do with the maintenance of gas turbines, and the company transferred its energy business to Siemens Energy in 2022 and the company was listed on the stock exchange, and since then the Siemens Group has only a minority stake in Siemens Energy.
Gazprom ’ s press statements did not mention the company the Russians are appealing to.
Putin interfered.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country would need to assess the condition of the Nord Stream turbine coming from Canada.
Nord Stream ’ s reliance on Canada for turbine maintenance could have negative consequences.
Bloomberg News quoted him as saying, “Maybe at some point they will decide to stop everything and then Nord Stream 1 will break. ”
He stressed that Russia needs its own engineering institutes and the development of expertise in the construction and maintenance of engineering equipment to avoid such situations.
Meanwhile, preliminary data from German gas network operator Jasquid showed that gas pumping through Nord Stream 1 is expected to resume on Thursday, after regular maintenance work has been completed.
Russian energy company Gazprom announced today that it has not yet received the documents of the Nord Stream 1 turbine, which was maintained in Canada, and therefore questioned the safety of the line ’ s operation.
German trouble.
Germany ’ s gas reserves are about 64% of full capacity and should reach that figure by 90% by December as part of its contingency plan.
If it fails to do so and Russia cuts off all supplies, the German government will have to start the third phase of the emergency plan where it will take over the distribution of gas and the distribution of rations.

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Content: Russia's natural gas economy feared to lose more than 1.8 trillion dollars in two years
Global Social Hotspots 15: 34 2022 / 04 / 14
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After Russia invaded Ukraine, European countries have discussed reducing their dependence on Russian natural gas and other energy sources, seeking to pressure Russia.
The German economy could lose 220 billion euros (1.8 trillion Hong Kong dollars) over the next two years if it interrupts its purchases of Russian gas, according to a new report from the German economic agency.
Experts involved in the report warned that cutting purchases of Russian gas would plunge the German economy into a deep recession.
Putin ’ s former aide: Energy embargo could end Ukraine war
A separate report from five German economic institutions predicts GDP growth of only 1.9% in 2022 and a 2.2% contraction in 2023.
The report said that if Germany continues to buy natural gas, the economy will grow by 2.7% this year.
However, if the purchase of Russian natural gas is interrupted, the German economy will lose 220 billion euros in two years.
Stefan Kooths, research director at the Kiel Institute, a German think tank, warned that cutting back on purchases of Russian gas would plunge Europe ’ s largest economy into a deep recession.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), about 46% of Germany ’ s natural gas was imported from Russia in 2020.
A ban on Russian natural gas would wreak havoc on the German economy in the short term.
Aviation industry urges EU not to sanction important materials for Russian titanium production aircraft [Next]
Inflation in Germany hit a more than 40-year high last month, and the consumer price index (CPI) also rose 7.3% year-on-year, according to the German Federal Statistical Office.
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said last week that Germany is trying to dump Russian energy as soon as possible, but not abruptly.
The German Association of Energy and Utilities Suppliers (BDEW) said it was working on a detailed plan but urged politicians to be cautious, saying cutting Russian gas represented a transformation of the entire German industry.
After the incident in the Ukrainian town of Bucha, the European Union upgraded its economic sanctions against Russia, restricting Russian energy imports for the first time since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
EU leaders agree to phase out Russian coal imports.
Efforts have been made to reduce Russian natural gas imports by 66% this year and to completely get rid of energy from Russia by 2027.
The European Union has begun discussions on a sixth round of sanctions against Russia, with some officials calling for action on Russian natural gas and crude oil.
The US cable news network (CNN) quoted EU sources as saying that the European Union will ban the import of Russian coal by August.
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Content: NEWS
Publish Date: 08 April 2022 19: 29 GMT
Updated Date: 08 Apr 2022 20: 05 GMT
After a rare encounter at the beginning of the war...
EU divided over Russian energy purchases
After a rare unity at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the specter of division has returned to haunt European relations as Germany has been accused of selfishness and the French president has been accused of negotiating with Russia.
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Source: AFP
After a rare unity at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the specter of division has returned to haunt European relations as Germany has been accused of selfishness, the French president has been accused of negotiating with a “criminal ”, and the Hungarians have re-elected Viktor Orban, who is close to Russia.
Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, a center-left member of the European Parliament, said: “Until now, Europe has shown exceptional unity and we are now entering a period of difficult decisions. ”
The stakes are simple but crucial: Should we stop buying energy from Russia, whose revenues directly fund its war effort in Ukraine, even though many European countries continue to rely on it, from Germany to Slovakia?
Since the start of the Russian offensive on February 24, the Europeans have tightened their sanctions on the Russian elite and economy with each new escalation, betting that the cost to President Vladimir Putin will soon be too high for him to continue the war.
EU countries have so far frozen at least €29.5 billion in Russian and Belarusian assets (Russian units operate in Ukraine from neighboring Belarus).
On Thursday, the Europeans agreed to ban imports of Russian coal and close European ports to Russian ships.
Enrico Letta told AFP that “the sanctions that have been taken are very severe but they need time to achieve results. ”
“We all expected a process that would take a few days or even a few weeks, but today we find ourselves in a situation where we don ’ t see the end of it. ”
Is the key in Berlin?
In the weeks leading up to the war, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union brandished severe sanctions, hoping to dissuade Vladimir Putin from intervening in Ukraine.
Martin Queens, deputy director of the German Marshall Fund Institute in Paris, said: "This made it possible to respond quickly after February 24, but it has reached its limits and the question of the purpose of the sanctions is being raised."
He explained to AFP that the debate is now focused on “the energy issue and the time space for sanctions ”, as the ban on Russian coal will not enter into force until early August, 120 days after the publication of the new sanctions package in the Official Journal of the European Union.
Poland and the Baltic states are pushing for tougher and faster action on gas and oil, but the countries most reliant on Russian energy, led by Germany, are asking for more time to find alternatives, angering other member states.
German political scientist Ulrich Speck tweeted: “Berlin has the key to tightening the pressure on Putin, but (Chancellor Olaf) Schulz is running a deaf ear and seems to think this decision can be avoided.
His reputation is badly damaged. ”
Filena Chakarova, director of the Austrian Institute for Europe and Security Policy, said in a tweet that “EU energy payments to Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine are worth 27.3 billion euros, 9.465 billion for oil, 17.1 billion for gas and 9 million for coal. ”
Orban, Mr. No.
Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, has exacerbated differences by declaring its willingness to pay for Russian gas in rubles, unlike the rest of the European Union.
The Russian president has threatened to cut off supplies to countries that refuse to abide by his decision to pay in rubles in response to a freeze of $300 billion in Russian foreign currency reserves.
Enrico Letta said: “With Orban ’ s victory on Sunday, there will always be a ‘ Mr No ’ within the EU.
“Hungary is a small country but its capacity to do harm is great on issues that need to be voted on unanimously. ”
Another European point of contention is how to deal diplomatically with Russia, with Poland's prime minister criticizing French President Emmanuel Macron over his numerous talks with the Kremlin leader since the war began.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said: “No one has negotiated with Hitler, ” and Macron responded that he was an“ anti-Semitic far-right ” that led Warsaw to recall the French ambassador.
Martin Queens said the comments had "domestic political objectives" and added: "There is tremendous pressure on the Europeans, especially Warsaw, Berlin and Paris, to continue to work together on the Ukrainian issue."
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This report explores the reasons behind Germany’s nuclear phase-out, its impact on the energy grid, the influence of external pressures, and public opinion on the matter.

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Content: Germany shuts down three of its six nuclear power plants to switch to renewable energy
Saturday 01 January 2022 - 12: 41 GMT
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Content: Alert
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In the afternoon, the rain is coming! 4 counties and cities, watch out for thunderstorms and strong gusts.
Read the weekly / Russia-Ukraine war affects energy prices skyrocketing Europe to try to save energy
Text / Chen Yun-han
Europe is in a hot summer, with record-breaking high temperatures and heatwaves.
European countries rely on Russia for natural gas supply, now affected by the international sanctions of the war in Ukraine and the failure of Russian machinery parts and other factors, the Russian government decided to reduce the supply of natural gas to Europe, and even interrupt the total amount of natural gas exported to Europe, resulting in energy prices are affected by factors such as reduced supply and inflation.
In order to save energy and save as much fuel as possible for winter, European countries have announced various energy-saving policies and called on citizens to change their electricity habits.
With the exception of Hungary, the energy ministers of the remaining 26 EU member states agreed at the end of July to voluntarily reduce winter energy use by 15%.
This energy saving target is currently voluntary, but it will be mandatory if the Russian government orders a complete shutdown of natural gas exports to Europe.
The Russian presidential palace announced last month 26, Russia's largest natural gas pipeline to Europe "Nord Stream 1" one of the turbines sent to Canada for maintenance, but the Canadian sanctions and did not return as scheduled, another turbine failure must be shut down for repair, so reduce gas supply.
The European Union accused Russia of energy blackmail, while Russia said the lack of energy supplies was due to maintenance problems and Western sanctions on Russia for its military actions in Ukraine.
Some countries in the European Union have begun to implement energy-saving regulations and measures, while at the same time trying to reserve energy for the winter.
● France / Open the air conditioner without closing the door to punish advertising light box section lights out
The French Minister of Energy Transition, Agnes Panier-Lunachet, announced the "energy conservation" policy, ordering shops that open air conditioning or heating not to open the doors, be sure to close the doors, or face a fine of 750 euros (about NT $23,000).
When she was interviewed, she said that turning on the air conditioner but not closing the door is equivalent to wasting 20% of energy, which is ridiculous.
In addition to the air conditioning policy, advertising light boxes and lighting equipment are set to turn off the lights according to the population and local regulations. Violators are fined, with the exception of airports and train stations.
Government regulations prohibit the use of lighting advertisements between 1 a.m. and 6 a.m. in towns with fewer than 800,000 inhabitants.
In towns with more than 800,000 residents, the lights are turned off at 1 a.m. in most areas, in accordance with local advertising regulations.
After the meeting, the European Union's energy ministers agreed to take more drastic measures, hoping that shops will "turn off their lights as soon as possible after closing and systematically reduce the luminous intensity of lighting equipment."
While 70% of France ’ s energy comes from nuclear, the government has set a target of 10% energy savings over the next two years and a vision of 40% energy savings by 2050.
However, the Times reported that when the French ministers met in the presidential palace at the end of July, a number of ministers' cars idled and turned on the air conditioning so that ministers could feel the comfortable temperature when they returned to the car, causing the public to criticize "only the governor can set fire, not the people to light the lights".
Greece / Renovate state air conditioning to save 30% next year
Greece launched a “tempering operation ” in June, setting targets for energy savings of 10 percent this year and 30 percent by 2023, including keeping air-conditioning in public buildings at 27 degrees Celsius in summer, installing shading curtains on windows, and encouraging employees in the public and private sectors to turn off their computers before work.
Greece is highly dependent on Russian natural gas, accounting for 40% of total energy consumption.
At the same time, the Greek government has promoted the “Energy Upgrade Plan ”, which has allocated 640 million euros (about 19.6 billion US dollars) to renovate the air-conditioning systems of state-owned institutions.
● Germany / Gym does not supply hot water car speed limit to save oil
The German government announced a strict energy conservation campaign, "80 million people together to change energy", requiring major buildings such as monuments and city halls to stop lighting at night, public facilities, swimming pools, gyms and gyms without hot water, public fountains closed, and plans to force speed limits on cars to save fuel.
German Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Hubbard led the demonstration, slashing the Ministry of Economic Affairs ’ summer air conditioning budget by about 40%, and increasing the operating temperature of the air conditioner from 22 degrees Celsius to 26 degrees Celsius.
Germany ’ s energy efficiency measures are led by the big city of Hanover, with municipal buildings in Lower Saxony only heating from October 1 to March 31 of the following year, and indoor temperatures will not exceed 20 degrees Celsius.
● Spain / Prime Minister takes the lead without tying tie to comply with temperature regulations
The Spanish government has implemented energy conservation measures since the 1st, requiring companies, restaurants, museums and public transport to adhere to strict room temperature regulations.
The Spanish government ’ s energy conservation plan stipulates a minimum room temperature of 27 degrees Celsius in summer and a maximum of 19 degrees Celsius in winter.
On July 29, Prime Minister Sangaris led by example, announcing at a press conference that he would not wear a collar and asking other officials to do so, reducing the chances of opening the air conditioner.
Spain is not as dependent on Russia for energy as other EU countries, and the country ’ s energy minister has only agreed to reduce the EU ’ s energy use by about 7% to 8%.
According to the Minister of Ecological Transformation and Population Challenges, Teresa Ribeira, the energy saving regulations will take effect on the 8th and continue until November 2023.
She called on citizens to "use energy wisely", stressing that "saving energy is a necessary measure", but the government will not let the lives of citizens be affected.
● Ireland / Home air conditioning setting temperature reduce car speed save fuel
The Irish government has urged people to reduce their driving speed to save fuel, while encouraging people to arrange working hours for dishwashers and washing machines to save electricity.
The Sustainable Energy Agency advises citizens to set the air conditioning temperature in their living areas at 20 degrees Celsius, 15 degrees Celsius in corridors and 18 degrees Celsius in bedrooms during winter.
The power company advises, "Don't burn the teapot until it's full, but if you just want to make coffee on the way to work, you just need to burn the right amount of water."
Italy / The original regulation of commercial activities has not yet been implemented
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi ’ s resignation on July 21 comes after his coalition government worked out a national climate emergency plan and strict energy conservation measures earlier this month, with plans to shut down night lighting at monuments and order all commercial activities to stop at 7 p.m.
However, both plans were not implemented, and the coalition government collapsed.
Italy ’ s current energy saving plan maintains projects that began in May, including no less than 27 degrees Celsius in summer and no more than 19 degrees Celsius in winter, with the exception of hospitals.
● Belgium / motorway lights dimmed, some areas turn off lights to save energy
Belgium ’ s motorway network is second only to the Netherlands in terms of density, and every night lights create a famous aerial night scene.
However, this beauty is overshadowed by energy-efficient policies on the road, and the lights of 1,763 kilometers of highways must be reduced to save energy, save money and reduce light damage.
With the exception of Brussels, the capital, where traffic is the busiest, the lights are still lit all night long, and in Wallonia, one of Belgium ’ s three regions, most of the highways are closed from 12: 30 to 5: 30 a.m., or only half of the lights are turned on.
As early as 10 years ago, the northern Dutch-speaking region of Flemming introduced some regional lighting measures, saving 2 million euros (about NT $61.13 million) in electricity consumption per year.
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Content: Guardian Original
Berbok admitted that the Ukrainian crisis forced Germany to rethink its relations with Russia and its neighbors on the continent
The Russian special operation in Ukraine has opened a new chapter for Germany and made it realize its responsibility to partner countries in a new way, writes Annalena Berbok in an article published by the British newspaper The Guardian.
The Germans, she said, “managed to surprise even themselves ”: Germany has coped with its dependence on Russian gas, has become one of the leading arms suppliers to Ukraine, and has recognized itself as a leader on whom its allies can rely.
The ability to surprise is perhaps not the first thing that people usually associate with Germans, writes German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbok in an article published by the British newspaper The Guardian.
But if you look at what direction Germany has been heading since Russia launched its military special operation in Ukraine, “perhaps we Germans have managed to surprise even ourselves, ” she adds.
Just two years ago, billions of cubic meters of gas flowed from Russia to Germany via Nord Stream 1 and other pipelines.
Russian fossil fuels accounted for a significant share of the country ’ s energy consumption.
That number has now been reduced to zero.
Just two years ago, the idea that Germany would supply tanks, air defense systems and howitzers to a combat zone would have seemed far-fetched, to say the least.
“Today, Germany is one of the leading suppliers of weapons for Ukraine ’ s self-defense, ” Burbock said.
This is not only a change in how Berlin perceives threats to its own security, but also in how Germany understands its responsibility in the modern world — “as a leader on whom our partners can rely, ” the German foreign minister said in his article.
After the horrors of World War II unleashed by the Germans, German foreign policy was based on the principle that war should never again come from German soil.
“In the first stage of foreign policy after 1945, our country sought to regain the trust of former enemies.
We are eternally grateful to them for reaching out to us, once again accepting us into the world community, ” Burbock wrote in The Guardian.
Over the following decades, German governments adhered to what became known as “checkbook diplomacy ” — the belief that German money, not soldiers, should help resolve conflicts.
In the 1990s, the third phase began.
At first, Germany acted gradually, through participation in missions led by the UN, and then – under the influence of the intolerable pictures of the Balkan wars – much more actively through active participation in the forces led by NATO in Kosovo.
“This decision was important not in spite of our country ’ s history, but because of it, ” Burbock writes.
As former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer noted, Germany ’ s responsibility for the disaster meant a commitment to never again allow not only war, but also concentration camps and genocide.
Adherence to the values of the UN Charter and international criminal law meant that Germany supported its partners in UN missions around the world.
After 9 / 11, Germany supported the United States and its partners by sending a Bundeswehr to Afghanistan.
According to Burbock, in connection with the Russian special operation in Ukraine, something, however, has changed radically, which leads to the fourth stage of foreign policy.
It is about how Germany perceives threats to its own security in the heart of Europe.
For too long, we have not heeded the warnings of our eastern neighbors, who urged us to take the threats posed by Russia seriously.
We have learned that “hoping for the best ” is not enough.
Despite all efforts to build a European security architecture with Russia, economic and political engagement has also failed to tip Moscow toward democracy, Berbok said.
Germany ’ s allies can count on it, she continues.
We Germans will never forget that we owe our freedom in a reunited country also to our allies and to our eastern neighbours.
As they helped us, so we will help them now, because the security of Eastern Europe is the security of Germany, ” the foreign minister wrote in his article.
“We know that for the foreseeable future, President Putin ’ s Russia will remain a threat to peace and security on our continent and that we must organize our security against Putin ’ s Russia, not with it, ” Burbock said.
In Germany ’ s first-ever national security strategy, its government explains how it seeks to assume responsibility in this new phase of foreign policy, in Europe and beyond, through an integrated security policy.
First of all, it means strengthening Germany ’ s commitment to the “Euro-Atlantic family. ”
Berlin strengthens NATO as a guarantor of collective security.
Berlin is also building up its military capabilities with an “unprecedented ” package of €100 billion and is committed to meeting NATO ’ s defense spending target.
In addition, Germany is building a geopolitical European Union that “opens its doors to new members such as Ukraine, Moldova, Western Balkan countries and, in the long term, Georgia. ”
According to Berbock, Germany learned “through pain ” that security means protecting not only from wars and crises, but also from economic vulnerability.
“Decisions about where we buy gas, oil or technology have security implications.
“Although we believe that in the context of globalization, it is impossible to break away from China, we strive to reduce risks and reduce our vulnerability.
Diversification is an investment in security. ”
Therefore, Germany is strengthening its strategic global partnerships.
“And if we want our common rules – based on the UN Charter – to govern our world in the future, we must prove their value by promoting solutions that meet the needs of our partners – on security, trade and the fight against the climate crisis.
If we fail to do so, others who do not share our strong commitment to international law and human rights will step in, ” Burbock warned in an article for The Guardian.
The Russian special operation in Ukraine opened a new chapter for Germany and forced it to rethink its desire to promote peace, freedom and sustainability in this world – as a “partner who accepts his leadership. ”
Some, from the point of view of Berbok, this may surprise, but “this is a matter of responsibility, ” concludes the German foreign Minister in an article for the British newspaper The Guardian.
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Content: Southern Federal
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In Germany, were afraid of the termination of Russian energy supplies
German authorities believe that in response to the sanctions imposed by the EU against Russia due to the recent events in Ukraine, Moscow may stop supplying energy to Europe.
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Content: Australia, Featured, Friends of the Pipeliner, From the magazine, News, Pipelines, Rehabilitation

Inspection solutions and their role in pipeline repurposing

Achieving ambitious climate policy goals will require significant investments in energy efficiency, renewables, new low-carbon technologies, and grid infrastructure. It will also necessitate the close integration of the electricity and gas sectors and their respective infrastructures. A decarbonised Europe will be based on an interplay between renewable electricity and renewable and low-carbon gases in an integrated energy system, all aimed at transporting, storing, and supplying all sectors with green energy to deliver a reliable and affordable transition to climate neutrality.

A number of studies have shown that the existing gas infrastructure and knowledge can support the transition to net zero in the most efficient manner. As the energy transition advances, the valuable pipeline system will provide efficient transportation and storage capacity for renewable energy in the form of molecular energy carriers, making the energy system more flexible and resilient. [1].

Energy systems

Over the past decades, energy systems around the world have grown to connect supply and demand. Countries and companies have built electrical power transmission lines and pipelines for oil and gas to enable economic growth and prosperity. With this growth, consumption of fossil fuels, and therefore greenhouse gas emissions, has increased. The current carbon-based energy system is undergoing profound changes driven by increased concerns over the longevity and security of fossil energy. Countries all around the world are looking for ways to transform their energy systems. Initiatives like the European Hydrogen Backbone illustrate the efforts to transform current European energy systems in order to lower their greenhouse gas emissions.[2].

Pipelines play a major role in the transformation of the energy system because of their ability to safely transport energy over long distances and act as storage at the same time. Compared to electrical power lines, pipelines can carry more energy and are directly connected to existing storage infrastructure, such as caverns. This integrated setup enables countries like Germany to integrate imported energy via pipeline from sources with lower energy production costs. Especially in light of international climate control  goals, the high energy density and the established and partly global transport infrastructure (e.g., pipeline connections from Scandinavia or the Mediterranean or new terminals to import LNG from overseas), it can be assumed that a global market for CO2 neutral gases (and fuels) will develop.[3].

A transformed energy landscape with significantly lower emissions will be based on the sector coupling principle, providing greater flexibility to the energy system so that decarbonisation can be achieved in a more cost-effective way.[4]. Figure 1 illustrates the different sources of energy on the left; the right side highlights the different forms of energy that could be transported by pipeline (including carbon sequestration).

With more focus on the pipelines in the energy sector, it can be seen that the energy is transported in different carriers, such as hydrogen, ammonia, oxygen and/or biomethane. These carriers are called future fuels. Purpose-built pipeline networks transporting these products are already in use today but in a significantly smaller volume than will be needed in the future. [2].

The potential exists that low-carbon gases and their associated products can reliably and efficiently be transported, stored, and distributed in our global existing and newly built pipeline network. Pipelines will also be used to facilitate carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) projects by transporting carbon dioxide safely from emission locations to permanent storage or end use locations. The transportation of these fuels through pipelines will require general as well as specific integrity threats and damage mechanisms to be considered to ensure safe and efficient operation. These challenges can only be managed with a comprehensive integrity management system. [5].

Inspection technologies and necessary changes for future fuels

In-line inspection (ILI) technology can be of significant value in repurposing activities, as it is highly utilised in today’s pipeline integrity management. The support of integrity decisions with measurement data has improved over the last decades, and technological developments in other industries (telecommunication, defense, IT, etc.) will further enhance these capabilities. ILI tools can be classified by integrity threat type or technology principle; widely used principles are mechanical calipers, magnetics, eddy current, ultrasound and electromagnetic acoustics. Knowing the integrity threats for pipelines related to hydrogen or other future fuels, ROSEN acknowledges that different kinds of ILI technologies can support the integrity management of such pipelines. Those ILI technologies could be technologies for the detection of, for example, deformations, mapping or corrosion. Technologies could also include those particularly applicable to future fuels, such as those for the determination of material properties or the detection of cracks and crack-like anomalies in gas pipelines. [5].

Today’s diagnostic ILI portfolio delivers solutions from simple cleaning applications to high-resolution crack detection services to understand feature populations and deliver data

f or integrity decisions. It is important that all these applications are also available in future fuel assets. Table 1 summarises the applications and technologies available. ROSEN is creating solutions to adapt its fleet of inspection tools, getting them ready for future fuels. Initial inspections in smaller-diameter product lines for hydrogen, ammonia and carbon dioxide have already been conducted [5], and the lessons learned and use of the solutions in larger diameters and longer pipelines are under development.

The main outcome of these development efforts are solutions for safe and successful inspections in future fuel pipelines. Independent of the technologies, the three main working areas are material compatibility, operational success and safety.

The inspection tools need to withstand the environment, which can be very different compared to oil and natural gas. Products like ammonia, carbon dioxide and hydrogen pose specific challenges for the materials comprising the inspection tools, and intense upfront testing and an understanding of deterioration processes are key for inspection vendors to deliver high-quality services. ROSEN is utilising its own hydrogen laboratory to execute material testing on all components used to build tools within the ILI portfolio.

Another key aspect of ILI is the ability to gather a high-quality dataset under the harsh conditions in pipelines. Speed control valves as well as low-flow/low-pressure setups enable a constant flow velocity without speed excursions or tool stops. [6]. The lower density of hydrogen compared to natural gas will increase bypass rates while also changing the behaviour of existing speed control implementations. Tool run simulations are a standard deliverable for proper inspection preparation, and these simulations have now been extended to also allow simulations to understand the tool dynamics in a hydrogen environment. Besides tool friction properties in the specific pipeline, the dynamic behaviour of ILI tools in gas pipelines also depends on the density and compressibility of the fluid. In order to classify the behaviour of tools in different pressures, velocities and fluids, operational limits diagrams as shown in Figure 2 can be used.

In order to generate the diagrams, several simulations of the specific ILI tool in a pipeline are performed at different pressures and the results evaluated. Based on availability, bypass information from a pump test in water is integrated to specify a minimum gas velocity for future inspections.

The safety requirements for the operation of ILI solutions may change with the introduction of hydrogen into pipeline networks. Existing ATEX certificates might need to be updated to ensure proper consideration of the lighter hydrogen in on-site safety procedures. ROSEN is covering this aspect in current developments to implement a suitable solution for customers worldwide.

The damage mechanism of hydrogen embrittlement, and therefore the potential initiation or propagation of cracks in pipeline steel, is one of the big uncertainties in repurposing activities. Understanding the population of planar flaws is as critical to estimating remaining life as it is to making proper investment decisions. Table 1 shows ultrasound, electromagnetic acoustic transducer and eddy current as possible technologies to detect cracking in pipelines. Cracking (internal SCC) is also a potential threat for both CO2 and ammonia pipelines, meaning crack detection technologies are likely to be required for most future fuel pipelines.

There are different implementations of ultrasound technology available; one of special interest for non-liquid (hydrogen or CO2) pipelines is electro-magnetic acoustic transducer (EMAT) technology. Mainly utilised in natural gas pipelines to assist in the management of stress-corrosion cracking and long seam integrity, EMAT has a significant advantage over conventional ultrasound: it does not require a liquid couplant, meaning it can be run in a gas line without the need for liquid batching. There are several generations of inspection tools available, with the latest implementations showing signification improvements in circumferential resolution and sensitivity. The technology allows for the detection, identification, and sizing of axial planar flaws, which can be helpful when in-service inspections in hydrogen or CO2 pipelines are required, or repurposing activities are executed in natural gas pipelines without the need to include a liquid batch.

Figure 3 illustrates the EMAT principle. EMAT induces an acoustic wave by generating an eddy current and magnetic flux field in the pipe. An additional benefit of EMAT is that it can give information about the external coating condition, which can be valuable when assessing external integrity threats. More information about the technology can be found in [7] and [8]. Figure 4 shows the latest implementation of the technology in a larger diameter. These inspection tools are equipped with speed control units to ensure a proper velocity profile and thus adequate data quality.

Conclusion

There are three  main challenges to overcome when it comes to inspection solutions for future fuel pipelines. Safe on-site operation depends on updated processes for the people and machinery involved. Furthermore, existing concepts for explosion protection (ATEX) may be upgraded to include the lighter hydrogen. Materials and components used on in-line inspection tools can be tested in a laboratory environment to characterise their durability and adapt them if necessary. High-quality datasets depend on proper tool run behaviour and sensor-to-wall contact. Simulations can support these assessments to understand fluid dynamics in future fuel pipelines before executing the inspections.

REFERENCES

[1]  Siemens Energy, “Power-to-X: The crucial business on the way to a carbon-free world,” 2021.

[2]  R. van Rossum, J. Jaro, G. La Guardia, A. Wang, L. Kuehnen and M. Overgaag, “European Hydrogen Backbone,” Guidehouse, Utrecht, 2022.

[3]  D. Bothe, M. Janssen, S. van der Poel, T. Eich, T. Bongers, J. Kellermann, L. Lueck, H. Chan, M. Ahltert, C. A. Quinteros Borras, M. Corneille and M. Kuhn, “Der Wert der Gasinfrastruktur in Deutschland,” Frontier Economics, 2017.

[4]  Frontier Economics, “Potentials of sector coupling for decarbonisation,” European Union, Luxemburg, 2019.

[5]  N. Gallon, M. Humbert and M. Tewes, “Energy Transition And The Impact On Pipeline Integrity,” Pipeline Technology Journal, 2022.

[6]  J. Becker, C. Richards, G. Sundag and R. Wittig, “Improving Data Collection With In-Line Inspection in Low-Pressure Gas Distribution Networks,” in International Pipeline Conference, Calgary, 2020.

[7]  R. Kania, K. Myden, R. Weber and S. Klein, “Validation of EMAT ILI Technology for Gas Pipeline Crack Inspection: A Case Study for 20″,” in 9th Pipeline Technology Conference, 2014.

[8]  M. Tomar, T. Fore, M. Baumeister, C. Yoxall and T. Beuker, “Graded EMAT Performance Specification Validated in Blind Test,” in International Pipeline Conference, Calgary, 2016

This article featured in the May edition of The Australian Pipeliner. Access the digital copy of the magazine here.

Subscribe to The Australian Pipeliner for the latest project and industry news.

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Content: Where is the Gulf of Global Transformations?
The Russian war on Ukraine has shaken international politics on more than one level: it ended nearly four decades of European peace, upended European priorities, dragged the United States into a proxy war with Russia, rocked global economies by inflation caused by rising energy and food prices, and affected the vast majority of the world by the consequences of the war in different proportions and forms.
However, this conflict presented an opportunity for the Gulf region to enhance its importance, not only in terms of global energy security, but also in global geopolitical competition.
In the recent history of the Gulf, the strategic partnership with the United States has shaped the energy and security policies of the Gulf States, and the “security for oil ” binary has been a determinant of the nature of US-Gulf relations, and with the decline of American commitment to Gulf security and the return of importance to its oil, the Gulf States seek to reset the standards of partnership with Washington on the one hand, and diversify their foreign partnerships on the other.
The United States is no longer the largest importer of Gulf oil due to the US shale oil boom and climate change policies, and Washington is no longer willing to continue playing a major role in the security of the Gulf region, but the fallout of the Ukrainian-Russian war has brought American attractiveness back to this base.
A week after the outbreak of the war, the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani was the first Gulf leader to visit the White House under Biden, and the visit culminated in the announcement of the classification of Qatar as a major ally of Washington from outside NATO, and with the exception of the Trump period, Qatari-US relations were always strong, and there is broad bilateral cooperation on regional and international issues.
But the fallout from the war has added another important dimension to relations: energy, and as Qatar is among the world ’ s top liquefied gas exporters, Washington is seeking to capitalize on that to help wean Europe off Russian gas, yet Doha has maintained a balanced discourse in the Russo-Western conflict.
In fact, Qatar has long been characterized by a foreign policy that is different from the region in terms of its ability to communicate with opponents and friends, and in light of the great transformations in global energy policies, Doha is seeking to enhance its importance in this area.
Unlike Qatar, Washington ’ s relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are, to a lesser extent, strained, mainly because the basic rule that has governed U.S.-Gulf relations for eight decades — security versus oil flows — is no longer strict and has undergone major changes.
The United States is no longer the largest importer of Gulf oil due to the US shale oil boom and climate change policies, and Washington is no longer willing to continue playing a major role in the security of the Gulf region, but the repercussions of the Ukrainian-Russian war have brought American attractiveness back to this base.
Biden wasted nearly half of his key mandate to acknowledge that Saudi Arabia remains central to global oil policies and U.S. regional interests, and that realpolitik ultimately trumps any other considerations in the relationship with the Gulf.
Biden ’ s oil need for the Gulf and Prince Mohammed ’ s determination to change the rules of the game with Washington ultimately produced this shift in the administration, and given that it will be quite difficult to revive the security-for-oil base, the new base that will manage the partnership will be constrained by conditionalities.
This shift is certainly a major personal gain for the Saudi crown prince, who has successfully ended his U.S. isolation, but it is also an opportunity for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to regain their status as key U.S. allies in the region.
The two countries will press Biden for assurances that the U.S. commitment to Gulf security will remain insulated from Washington ’ s reduced involvement in the region, as well as the transformation of these assurances into formal and institutional partnerships, the institutionalization of which would protect it from any sharp political fluctuations in Washington in the future.
At the regional level, Biden ’ s opening to Saudi Arabia and the UAE is an admission that pressuring them to end the Yemen war at all costs has failed, and the two countries are likely to pressure Washington to exert greater pressure on the Houthis and force them to negotiate a lasting and sustainable peace that addresses their long-term security concerns.
One of the big questions surrounding Biden ’ s Gulf detour is whether it will affect his desire to revive the nuclear deal with Iran, as nuclear negotiations already face obstacles, but America ’ s openness to Saudi Arabia and the UAE will force him to take Gulf interests into account when concluding any new nuclear deal.
In the meantime, the price Biden is seeking goes beyond the oil issue and includes pushing the Gulf states to strengthen the emerging new ties with Israel and develop them into defense cooperation to counter Iranian threats, which would mean pressuring Saudi Arabia to join peace agreements with Israel.
That may seem difficult to envisage in the near term, but a move such as Biden sponsoring an agreement between Tel Aviv and Riyadh on the international status of the islands of Tiran and Sanafir and expanding Israel ’ s use of Saudi airspace would push in that direction.
The vacuum created by the US approach to disengagement from the region is a strong incentive for the Gulf to build a partnership with Israel in the context of strategic hedging, but such a partnership should not be seen as actually capable of making Iran less aggressive towards the Gulf or indeed creating a military balance with it.
This partnership could increase the costs to Iran of its regional policies, but it is unlikely to lead to a radical shift in Iran ’ s regional role for the foreseeable future, given that Biden ’ s sponsorship of an Israeli-Gulf security partnership will allow the United States to continue its gradual disengagement from the region with minimal damage.
Instead, it would be right for the Gulf states to balance the imperatives of a new relationship with Washington with maintaining the new partnerships they have forged with others such as Russia and China, and with China becoming in recent years among the biggest buyers of Gulf oil, isolating the relationship with Beijing from the transformations of the relationship with the United States is of great importance to the Gulf.
The emerging Gulf-Israeli relations will remain one of the most prominent weaknesses in Gulf interests in the long term, and although these relations are portrayed as an interest of the Gulf in terms of security, they are unbalanced and tilt in favor of Tel Aviv.
Meanwhile, the Gulf ’ s rejection of normalization with Israel has long been a strong pressure card on Tel Aviv and the United States to bring about real change in the course of the Palestinian cause, yet this card has been significantly weakened by the Gulf ’ s openness to Israel without forcing it to change its approach to the Palestinians.
The security of the Gulf is not only related to the efforts of the Gulf States to fortify their security front against the threats to which they are exposed, but is closely linked to regional security as a whole, therefore, the Gulf-Israeli peace that ignores the status of the Palestinian issue is a recipe for further regional instability.
In fact, the American retreat in the region puts Israel in a difficult position and pressures it to build partnerships with the countries of the region – especially the Gulf – to form a broad front against Iran, and it would be in the interest of the Gulf countries to exploit this situation to force Israel to make concessions on the Palestinian cause before giving it what it wants from the Gulf.
Over the past two decades, the center of Arab decision-making has shifted to the Gulf states, and their role in the regional geopolitical map has been strengthened by the weakness of traditional regional powers, such as Egypt, Syria, and Iraq.
However, the current regional and international shifts give it a greater chance to transform itself into a central power in regional and global energy policies, but this requires a careful balancing act between the traditional partnership with the United States — which alone is no longer sufficient to meet the Gulf ’ s external needs and interests — and new partnerships with Washington ’ s strategic adversaries, such as Russia and China.

Title:

Content: Europe has been rewiring itself in impressive ways in the four months since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine

The coming weeks will show whether that work of building a more resolute European Union for a future of new geopolitical challenges will continue—or, instead, if the rewiring will short-circuit before the job is done in the face of rising economic headwinds and Putin’s grinding war of attrition.

Thus far, the European Union (EU) has remained unified with the United States and others behind an unprecedented set of sanctions on Russia. Further, it has begun to strengthen its hard power through increased defense spending, and it has moved swiftly to reduce its shameful energy dependence on Moscow. Most recently the Group of Seven (G7) appears poised to announce an import ban on Russian gold.

In ways Putin never envisioned when he hatched his war, the EU has committed itself to ensuring Ukraine’s future as a democratic, independent, and European country through billions of euros of economic supportunprecedented arms deliveries, and now an offer of membership candidacy to Ukraine and Moldova.

As NATO prepares to open its summit in Madrid this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov voiced Moscow’s growing concern about EU unity of purpose alongside the alliance. He said the EU and NATO were building a coalition to engage in a war with Moscow that he compared to “Hitler during World War II.” As laughable as Lavrov sounds to reasonable ears—this era’s tyrannical dictator sits in Moscow and not Berlin—it underscores Putin’s worries about Western common cause and his warped view of history.

Yet as impressive as the EU rewiring project has been thus far, it’s likely to short-circuit in the months ahead unless the political conviction grows even stronger around this historic moment. That will demand faster implementation of new defense and energy policies—and greater support for Ukraine.

As Putin gains ground in Ukraine, with new strikes on Kyiv today almost certainly timed to coincide with the G7 meeting in Germany, it will take all the political will European leaders can muster. They will face greater public pressures to end the war with benchmark gas prices climbing an additional 15 percent in the last week amidst the double shocks of Russian cuts and a fire at Freeport LNG in Texas, with inflation reaching 8.1 percent in the euro area in May, and with economic recession dangers rising rapidly, given the threat of Russian gas cutoffs this winter.

On another front, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde summoned her colleagues to an emergency session last week in Frankfurt that was designed to generate solidarity around steps to preempt any danger of a new Eurozone debt crisis reaching Italy from the dual shocks of rising inflation and slowing growth.

Putin is counting on the usual fatigue and political divisions that set in among Western democracies when they must weigh growing domestic concerns against international dangers. He’s seen enough to encourage him, including newly re-elected Emmanuel Macron’s failure to win a majority in the National Assembly, the first time in thirty years that’s been denied the French president.

And for all the impressive arms shipments and economic support the Biden administration has delivered Ukraine, the weaponry firing range of some fifty miles remains insufficient to stop the Russian carpet-bombing, for fear of expanding the war.

Beyond that, Putin knows US midterm elections are likely to weaken Biden further amid domestic disputes over the Supreme Court’s overturning of the Roe v. Wade abortion protections and the country’s continuing disputes over gun laws. Even as Putin’s war grows uglier, Americans are seeing less of it on their TV screens.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is also looking weaker than in his first days in office, as he hosts the G7 leaders in the Bavarian Alps this weekend.

Scholtz faced such a storm of criticism that he’s been dragging his feet on heavy weapons deliveries to Ukraine that his Defense Ministry was compelled to publish a full list of completed and planned deliveries, including seven self-propelled Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers that at long last have arrived in Ukraine.

It’s worth remembering that Europe’s greatest moments of forward progress typically come at times of crisis, as has been the case again following Putin’s war in Ukraine. It’s at such times that member states better manage their divisions and work more effectively around the EU’s mind-bending bureaucracy.

The problem is that the current European divide that looks hardest to fix is a fundamental disagreement over how important a Ukrainian victory is and what it would take to bring it about.

The closer you live to Russia as an EU citizen, the more you argue, as I did in this space on June 5, that Putin doesn’t need the diplomatic off-ramp that Macron is offering but rather the dead-end that can only be brought by tougher sanctions and a more effective Ukrainian counter-offensive backed by longer-range weapons.

Russia’s closest neighbors know that a bad peace in which Ukraine gives up new territory will only provide a respite before Putin resumes his imperial efforts to take all of Ukraine and ultimately other former Soviet areas.

In Western Europe, the desire is greater for a peace that would end the war now, even if the outcome leaves Putin in power and, as Macron has said, avoids humiliating him.

“Despite the celebratory rhetoric in Brussels about the European Union’s surprisingly robust response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine…” writes Eoin Drea this week in Foreign Policy, “the war has not united the bloc in any unprecedented or transformative way. In fact, it’s having exactly the opposite effect: Beneath the soaring vista of Ukraine as a catalyst for a more muscular and geopolitically effective EU like deep divisions, shifting allegiances, and a much more complex reality.”

Counterbalancing that gloom, Macron, Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis visited Kyiv on June 16 to hammer home their support for Ukrainian security and European ambitions.

Shortly after they returned, the European Parliament voted with 529 votes to 45 against and 14 abstentions to adopt a resolution calling on the heads of state or government to grant EU candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova, which they have now done.

That symbolism must now be complemented by even greater substance. The rewiring of the EU has only just begun to strengthen its defenses, diversify its energy sources, tighten its transatlantic links, and ensure Ukraine’s survival as a sovereign, free European state.

To stay the course, European leaders and citizens must understand what they are doing isn’t just for Ukraine but even more for themselves. The lessons from two devastating World Wars and a Cold War are that staying unified is a prerequisite for victory and that appeasing despots is always self-defeating.

This article originally appeared on CNBC.com

Frederick Kempe is president and chief executive officer of the Atlantic Council. You can follow him on Twitter @FredKempe.

THE WEEK’S TOP READS

#1 How Far Do Putin’s Imperial Ambitions Go?
Yaroslav Trofimov | WALL STREET JOURNAL

In this chilling analysis, Yaroslav Trofimov lays out in frightening detail just how far Putin’s imperial ambitions might take him.

Trofimov opens with a bizarre and telling scene, in which Putin, long before his Ukraine invasion, makes a spectacle out of contradicting a nine-year-old on the question of where Russia’s borders end.

“’At the Bering Strait with the United States,’ the nine-year-old boy ventured hesitantly.  Putin, who chairs the board of the Russian Geographic Society, contradicted the boy to triumphant applause ‘The borders of Russia,’ he pronounced, ‘never end.'”

“Earlier this month,” writes Trofimov, “Putin said that he views Ukraine as just the first step, with many other territories potential targets.” Just this month in St. Petersburg, while honoring the 350th anniversary of Peter the Great, he said that when Peter conquered Sweden “he was merely returning what is ours, and strengthening it.” Read more →

#2 What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
Eric Schlosser | THE ATLANTIC

As Putin’s war in Ukraine bogs down into a battle of attrition, the danger that Vladimir Putin will deploy battlefield nuclear weapons persists. In this richly reported piece, Eric Schlosser interviews nuclear weapons exports to explore what could happen—and how the United States could respond.

“The risk of nuclear war,” Schlosser warns, “is greater today than at any other time since the Cuban missile crisis. And the decisions that would have to be made after a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine are unprecedented. In 1945, when the United States destroyed two Japanese cities with atomic bombs, it was the world’s sole nuclear power. Nine countries now possess nuclear weapons, others may soon obtain them, and the potential for things going terribly wrong has vastly increased.” Read more →

#3 What Makes a Power Great
Michael J. Mazarr | FOREIGN AFFAIRS

In this smart, in-depth analysis, Michael Mazarr draws from a RAND corporation study on what makes great powers—and how they can fall.

Over the course of fifteen months, Mazarr led a RAND Corporation study for the US Defense Department’s Office of Net Assessment, supported by analysis from outside historians. The study isolated a number of national characteristics that throughout history have underpinned national competitive success—”including a strong national ambition, a culture of learning and adaptation, and significant diversity and pluralism.”

“These domestic strengths are the building blocks of international power. But,” Mazarr warns, “to enable a country to succeed, they must reinforce and support one another. And they must not fall out of balance. Too much national ambition, for instance, can lead to overreach, imperiling the country that overcommits itself. But countries with too little ambition, diversity, or willingness to learn and adapt risk starting a negative cycle that can spiral into national decline.”

Read this study to learn why it is that the United States, if it is to prevail in the years ahead in contests with China and Russia, “will have to do more than just outspend its rivals on defense or advanced military technologies. It will have to nurture the qualities that make great powers dynamic, innovative, and adaptive. Read more →

#4 After a Pivotal Period in Ukraine, US Officials Predict the War’s Path
Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt, Julian E. Barnes| NEW YORK TIMES

Based on analyses by a number of US defense officials, including Atlantic Council military fellows, this New York Times article provides a useful examination of how the US defense establishment expects the war in Ukraine to unfold.

Now that four to six weeks have passed since Russia shifted its main focus to eastern Ukraine, Cooper, Schmitt, and Barnes write, “officials say the picture is increasingly clear: Russia is likely to end up with more territory, they said, but neither side will gain full control of the region as a depleted Russian military faces an opponent armed with increasingly sophisticated weapons.”

In this situation, they add, “other analysts predict a back and forth that could stretch for months or even years. ‘This is likely to keep going, with each side trading territory on the margins,’ [director of Russian studies at CNA Michael] Kofman said. ‘It’s going to be a dynamic situation. There are unlikely to be significant collapses or major surrenders.’”Read more →

#5 A Ukrainian Refugee’s Fight To Save The Family She Left Behind
Ed Caesar | NEW YORKER

This week’s must-read is Ed Caesar’s riveting, heartbreaking New Yorker piece about a Ukrainian family separated by the war and navigating life as refugees from Putin’s war.

Follow Inna Blahonravina and her daughters Sasha and Oliviia as they depart Ukraine in midst of Russian air-raids on Kiev, leaving Inna’s husband Maksym behind. It is a chronicle of resilience and separation, fear, and hope, and it shows a portion of the vast human cost of Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine.

“Once,” Caesar writes, “Oliviia looked over Inna’s shoulder as she read on her phone about an attack on Kyiv. The report was accompanied by an image of a building on fire, with rescuers at the scene. Oliviia asked who the people in the photograph were—whether they were Russian or Ukrainian, and if one of them was Vladimir Putin. Then she said, ‘Mommy, I’m so glad we’re not killed.’ Every day, the kids had video calls with their father. Maksym tried to keep the conversations lighthearted, but even banal topics could be laced with sadness.

“‘Do you miss the cats?’” he’d ask.” Read more →

Atlantic Council top reads

Image: Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Olaf Scholz, President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of the Council of Ministers of the Italian Republic Mario Draghi and President of Romania Klaus Iohannis (L to R) are pictured during the official welcome ceremony outside the Mariinskyi Palace, Kyiv, capital of Ukraine.

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Natural gas: for co-development or for self-gratification?
(Second and final part)
Ammar Tu
• 61
• 0
In the first part of this article, we discussed the current and future gas problem and the related concerns of exporters and importers.
In contrast, we highlighted the reassuring spirit that prevailed in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, which was held recently in Algeria.
In the first three chapters, we were exposed respectively to world gas production, to the gas industry in Algeria and to world gas exports.
In this second part, we continue through sections 4 and 5, to conclude with the answer to the question we have chosen for this article.
4 Natural gas market and transportation now and in the future
Prior to the crisis in Ukraine, which erupted on February 24, 2022, the natural gas market was characterized by acceptable stability in which supply and demand met without disruption, even if this market did not satisfy exporters, including price review mechanisms.
The demand for natural gas in its gaseous form was met by exports from the world's many production reservoirs through an important network of pipelines, some of which travelled thousands of kilometres by land and / or sea, subject to strict commercial and contractual security rules.
The demand, which was thus not met by natural gas in its gaseous form, was met by liquefied natural gas (LNG), which was provided for maritime transport by giant purpose-built ships, which were shipped, discharged and gasified (regasified) in liquefaction and gasification plants, in gas-ready ports.
On the eve of the Ukraine crisis, natural gas pipelines in various regions of the world were formed as follows:
4.1 Network of Russia-Europe.
It consists of four basic lines (pipes):
– The most northerly tube (Nord Stream 1) through the Baltic, which directly connects Russia to Germany.
It was expected to be multiplied by another pipe of the same energy (Stream 2), which also passes under the Baltic Sea, but was blown up by the hands of criminals after the completion of the works and before the operation and where investigations to identify the perpetrators and their abusers are stalled.
Two other pipelines also transport Russian gas to Western Europe (Bologna, Germany...)
Through the territory of Ukraine, they entered the stage of exploitation in 1979.
A fourth “trans-Balkan ” pipe passes through Odessa along Moldova before supplying Bulgaria and Romania.
This network is complemented by secondary pipelines such as those supplied by Russian gas to Finland and Lithuania, which supplied more than 90% of their needs in 2021.
Thus, Europe was dependent on Russian natural gas imported via pipelines, with more than 40% in 2021.
Within this equation, it is not possible to neglect the gas pipeline linking Russia and Turkey, which passes under the Black Sea, with a length of more than 900 kilometers, knowing that Turkey follows about 45% of the Russian natural gas.
1. 4.
Algeria-Europe Network.
It consists of two pipes and a third line project:
The Algeria-Spain (and Portugal and France, as an extension) gas pipeline transiting the Mediterranean Sea, which, as of 1996 when it was operational, provided on its way to Spain, the country of the Far Maghreb, with about 9 to 10 billion cubic meters per year.
But the expiration of the contract on October 31, 2021 and the non-renewal of the contract, was replaced, in real time, by another direct pipe linking Algeria with Spain, which was completed by Algeria in the sense of its bad fate.
This ensured that Spain and Portugal continued to supply Algerian natural gas in its gaseous form without any significant interruption.
It transported 8.7 billion cubic meters in 2023.
The Algeria-Italy gas pipeline also transits the Mediterranean Sea through Tunisian soil.
In 2023, 26.2 billion cubic meters of gas were transported and the volume is expected to reach 28 billion cubic meters in 2024, noting that the capacity of this pipeline is 32 billion cubic meters.
It should be noted that this pipeline began to be exploited in 1983 and its capacity was increased by 7 billion m3 by the construction of a second line built between 1991 and 1997.
We recall the idea of the 1980s for the construction of a second gas pipeline linking Algeria and Italy, which did not materialize because of the decline in economic data related to the feasibility of the project at the time, mainly related to the significant decline in fuel prices, which was one of the important reasons for the collapse of the Algerian economy starting in 1986.
But the beginning of the revival of the Algerian economy has led to the revival of this project under a new, more ambitious, more diversified perspective of the materials it will transport (natural gas, electricity, hydrogen and ammonia) and faster achievement.
This project was fine-tuned during the visit of the Italian Prime Minister to Algeria at the beginning of 2023 in response to the visit of the President of the Republic Abdelmadjid Tebboune to Italy in May 2022.
This is what we will be exposed to within the geostrategies produced by international relations as reactions to the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis.
(8)
The emerging geostrategies of the Ukrainian crisis in the field of natural gas
The West met the Russian military operation as a reaction to this trick, by imposing various and escalating economic sanctions, especially the boycott of Russian gas, which was supplying Aruba with a rate of 40% in 2021.
By 2023, this dependency had fallen to less than 15%.
Gradually, Russian gas transported through the aforementioned pipelines was replaced by Norwegian, Qatari and American liquefied natural gas, at prices that, when American liquefied shale gas, are four times their levels under normal conditions.
(9).
The spot market for Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), “shunned ” by Europeans, has also flourished, but without compromising Russia ’ s revenues for the races it has orchestrated.
Its economy has also not been adversely affected, with Russia achieving positive growth rates of 3.6% in 2023.
While its opponents from Western countries are generally aware of a significant decline in their economic growth that is close to the point of recession.
In addition to these adjustments in the field of gas marketing, Russia has directed its sales from the West to the Asian destination, in the medium and long term.
It is in the process of building a second pipeline to supply China with gas as a promising market, with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters agreed in March 2023 (Siberia II), in addition to the pipeline operated on December 2, 2019 with a capacity of 61 billion cubic meters (Siberia Power).
This makes up for its biggest sales to Western Europe after giving up Russian gas.
Turkey is using to its advantage the geopolitical situation created by the Ukrainian crisis to encourage the realization of the project of laying a second gas pipeline through its territory to Europe, coming from Turkmenistan, a country rich in energy (oil and gas) and classified as the sixth world reserve, along with the pipeline, currently through Azerbaijan and through Anatolia (Turkey) towards Europe, Caspian Sea gas, as well as the trans-Black Sea pipeline coming from Russia. This is turning Turkey into a strategic gas hub towards Europe.
(10).
The quantities of Algerian gas, gas and liquefied, destined for Europe during these conditions were only marginal, given the saturation of the pipelines connecting Algeria to Europe and its limited capacity to liquefy natural gas.
However, Algeria ’ s natural gas exports to Italy will gradually increase by 12% in 2024 to 28% in 2025 compared to 2022.
Algeria ’ s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to France increased by 30% in 2023 compared to 2022.
However, the most important thing in Algeria ’ s interaction with the geostrategic developments in investments in the natural gas industry, transport and market, as we have seen, is that, in addition to respecting the contract to supply Spain and increase its exports to France and Italy, it has concluded strategic contracts with Italy and Germany in the field of industrial, commercial and marketing cooperation in the field of gas and renewable energies. It plays a pivotal role in the reception of natural gas, electricity, ammonia and hydrogen in Algeria, to be marketed in Italy, Germany, Austria and other European countries.
In February 2024, Germany signed an agreement to establish a joint task force for the production, storage and transport of clean green hydrogen and its derivatives for the German market.
(11).
The Algeria-Italy gas pipeline also transits the Mediterranean Sea through Tunisian soil.
In 2023, 26.2 billion cubic meters of gas were transported and the volume is expected to reach 28 billion cubic meters in 2024, noting that the capacity of this pipeline is 32 billion cubic meters.
It should be noted that this pipeline began to be exploited in 1983 and its capacity was increased by 7 billion m3 by the construction of a second line built between 1991 and 1997.
Algeria ’ s strategic role in the European gas market will increase after the completion of the Nigerian gas pipeline through Niger and Algeria, which was finally agreed upon during the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Algeria and referred to at the beginning of this contribution, as this pipeline will guarantee Europe an additional 30 billion cubic meters of Nigerian gas, to which Senegal and Mauritania may be added after the two countries joined the Gas Exporters Forum in Algeria.
Not counting the financial and Nigerian gas that will be added to it if the ongoing research on hydrocarbons in these two countries results in the contribution of the Algerian national company Sonatrach.
In the medium term, Algeria will be responsible for supplying Europe with 80 to 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year via pipelines (to Italy, Spain, Germany and Austria via Italy).
As for liquefied natural gas (LNG), Algeria currently contributes only 4.9 percent to meet the needs of the European market, which is growing in proportion to the decline in European imports of Russian natural gas via pipelines.
Note that the total annual European needs of natural gas of both types (gas and liquefied) is estimated at 400 billion cubic meters, of which 155 billion cubic meters were met by Russian natural gas through pipelines before the Ukrainian crisis.
Perhaps the goal raised by Algeria through its President on December 13, 2022 to export 100 billion cubic meters per year of Algerian gas is also to contribute to this concern.
The quantities of Algerian gas, gas and liquefied, destined for Europe during these conditions were only marginal, due to the saturation of the pipelines linking Algeria to Europe and the limited capacity to liquefy natural gas.
However, Algeria ’ s natural gas exports to Italy will gradually increase by 12% in 2024 to 28% in 2025 compared to 2022.
Algeria ’ s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to France increased by 30% in 2023 compared to 2022.
This is a heavy responsibility for Algeria, through its contribution to strengthening the atmosphere of cooperation between gas exporters and importers, in accordance with the spirit of the 7th Natural Gas Exporters Forum, which allows, in turn, the right to benefit without hindrance from advanced technologies and contribute to their innovation, as part of the policy of upgrading the start-ups that Algeria systematically seeks to embody.
This is in the interest of deeper co-development with major importers.
The fiber optic cable that has now reached Algeria's southern borders with Mali and Niger, along the approaching trans-Saharan route from the Algerian coast, and the promising high-speed rail line, programmed along the same route, which encourages its rapid completion, may be sufficient conditions for the achievement of common development goals.
Algeria ’ s strategic role in the European gas market will increase after the completion of the Nigerian gas pipeline through Niger and Algeria, which was finally agreed upon during the Gas Exporting Countries Forum held in Algeria, as this pipeline will guarantee Europe an additional 30 billion cubic meters of Nigerian gas, to which Senegal and Mauritania may be added after the two countries joined the Gas Exporting Forum at its seventh session held in Algeria.
Drawing from what we have dealt with in this contribution, to answer the question we have chosen as its title: nothing separates earthly heaven from earthly hell but a fine line as a sigh hair, supported by the human values embodied in the benevolence of all peoples through shared prosperity for all but undermined by selfishness and the love of domination imposed by international relations created by a dysfunctional world order that still exists and which the Algerian President Houari Boumediene diagnosed him well and proposed solutions to him before the United Nations General Assembly on 10 April 1974.
Algeria remains convinced of his assumptions and carries his proposals, including those related to the conclusions of this contribution.
References
(8) The Algerian Press Agency.
Posted on January 23, 2023 at 17: 55.
(9) International Mail - former German Chancellor.
Published on December 12, 2022.
10 LA TRIBUNE.
Latribune.fr
(11) H2 mobile.fr 19-02-2024 Posted at 18: 00:
(12) The Algerian Press Agency.
Tuesday 13 December 2023 at 20: 23.
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**Historical Context and Public Sentiment**: Germany’s nuclear phase-out policy, known as *Atomausstieg*, began in the early 2000s and was accelerated after the Fukushima disaster in 2011.

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Content: Vadim Trukhachev Strikes in Germany are in the hands of Russia, but only in the future
Unseen strikes have literally paralyzed life in Germany.
More and more Germans want Chancellor Scholz to resign.
The German troubles do not promise any quick dividends to Russia.
But in the medium term, ordinary Germans will get bored of the fact that aid to Ukraine is put above their own well-being.
8 comments
Dmitry Gubin The first Russian relocant did not finish well
How sweet I hate my motherland.
It is hard to wait for her to be destroyed. ”
The author of these lines at home could have become a great scientist and a decent writer, but ended his life in obscurity in the backwoods of Dublin.
46 comments
Igor Maltsev "Blue light" became less blue
As the leader of the group "Lube" accurately designated the genre of the program - "We will drink and walk for you, Motherland."
The Ukrainian mova also sounded like a demonstration of the broad soul of Russia.
There were a couple of beasts here.
29 comments
10 January 2024, 21: 10
The expulsion of the US from Iraq will have global consequences in favor of Russia
Text: Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor, Financial University
Iraq is increasingly approaching the moment of the final deliverance of American troops on its territory.
There are a number of reasons why this process is inevitable.
It will bring with it fundamental changes throughout the Middle East.
This will be a huge defeat for the United States, a victory for Iran – and will bring benefits, including to Russia.
Iraq demands the withdrawal of American troops.
With such headlines, the world media has been coming out for several days.
At first glance, they seem a little ahead of events.
According to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, “the government sets a date for the start of the work of the bilateral committee to prepare for the permanent end of the presence of the international coalition forces in Iraq. ”
Simply put, he is in the process of building a dialogue on the start of negotiations on the withdrawal of 2.5 thousand American soldiers from the country (this is only official soldiers, plus a contingent of contractors).
And formally, this dialogue can continue for as long as desired.
The Iraqi parliament voted to withdraw the remaining US troops and their bases four years ago, when Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and prominent Iraqi politician Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis were killed by a US drone at Baghdad airport.
As you can see, both the US military and contractors remain in the country.
And al-Sudani himself is not a supporter of hasty actions that can cause a split in society.
And there are forces that call for caution and taking into account the financial and economic dependence of Iraq on the United States, ” says Elena Suponina, a political scientist and international expert at the Russian International Monetary Fund.
The Americans themselves said that they do not plan to withdraw 2.5 thousand of their soldiers from Iraq.
That these troops are there at the invitation of the Iraqi government and allegedly focused on the mission to destroy ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), which seems to have won back in 2019.
In fact, the purpose of the presence is quite different.
“It is important for the Americans to be there, given the tense situation in the Persian Gulf, the constantly failing negotiations with Iran and the demands of the main American ally in the region – Israel – to strike at Iran ’ s nuclear facilities.
If such plans are implemented, then the Americans need these bases both as jump aerodromes, and for the organization of surveillance, and as a place of concentration of troops, ” says Elena Suponina.
However, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has already stated that he intends to achieve the withdrawal of American troops from the country.
And with a high degree of probability he will achieve.
At least because its Iranian partners, the worst enemies of the United States, demand it.
More precisely, the numerous political forces of Iraq, behind which Iran stands.
"We have repeatedly expressed our point of view to the authorities of the countries of the region, including Iraq, and stated that the presence of American forces in any form... will not help maintain stability and peace," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said.
In his opinion, official Baghdad has all the capabilities, power and authority to independently maintain security in Iraq.
In turn, the Americans in Iraq have nothing and no one to count on.
The United States has no allies left in kicking Iraq out of Iran ’ s sphere of influence.
Saudi Arabia, with the mediation of the PRC, began the process of normalizing relations with the Iranians, and Riyadh is not interested in any anti-Iranian operations.
And whoever comes to power in Baghdad will remain an Arab.
And the United States ’ full support for Israel ’ s military operation in Gaza has made Americans deeply toxic to any Arab politician.
Purely theoretically, the Americans can simply ignore the position of the Iraqi government and be in the country as an occupier.
However, such an approach is fraught with serious losses.
According to the United States, from mid-October 2023 to early January 2024, more than 100 attacks were carried out on their troops in Syria and Iraq.
The Iraqi authorities are not punching their fingers in order to somehow prevent these strikes.
The United States is trying to solve the problem on its own, in particular, striking key pro-Iranian figures.
On January 4, with a drone strike, the Americans killed one of the leaders of Hashd al-Shaabi (a pro-Iranian group that is integrated into the Iraqi army).
However, such killings give the already skeptical Iraqi authorities only new grounds to demand the withdrawal of troops - in fact, after the assassination of Prime Minister al-Sudani began to talk about the start of the commission's work.
The withdrawal of troops is inevitable.
And it will have very serious consequences for the United States.
Both regional and global.
The consequences, which in turn benefit Russia.
Leaving Iraq is not just another war lost by the Americans.
It is not just a senseless waste of thousands of lives, billions of dollars of taxpayers in the name of getting the country to the Iranians.
This is also a lost war at a time when the Americans in any case can not lose.
The United States twisted the hands of its allies on the Ukrainian and Israeli issue to demonstrate its greatness and invincibility.
And now it turns out that at the request of the “aborigines ” they leave the country, which they occupied for more than 20 years.
From which they could control affairs from the Levant to Iran.
After such a withdrawal, the American coalition may well fall asleep on another front, in particular, on the Ukrainian one.
American allies in Europe can begin to show self-will and gradually move away from the US line destructive to their national interests in the Ukrainian issue.
The Iraqi defeat will be followed immediately by the Syrian defeat.
After all, after the withdrawal from Iraq, the United States will no longer be able to supply its group in Eastern Syria.
After their departure, Bashar al-Assad (and again the Iranians behind him) will regain control of the entire territory of the country, except for the part that is under the control of the Kurds.
Which again would be a major defeat for the Americans.
Iran will control a huge strip of territory from southern Iraq to Lebanon.
Such a highway to project the influence of Tehran on the entire Eastern Mediterranean.
And Moscow, Tehran ’ s military-political partner, is satisfied with such a highway.
The US will lose the most important tool of pressure on Turkey (in the face of the Syrian Kurds, whom Washington supported), which will result in greater independence of Ankara – again beneficial for Russia.
The defeat in Iraq will further weaken the US position in the Arab world and in the Middle East as a whole.
Which is less afraid of the Iranians, more burdened by the alliance with toxic Americans and increasingly seeks to diversify foreign policy at the expense of the Russians and the Chinese.
This means that the region, which from the point of view of American interests was of key importance, will go under the control of the Iranian, Chinese and Russian opponents of Washington.
At the same time, the United States will have only one outpost in the face of Israel.
Therefore, the Biden administration will do everything possible to delay the withdrawal.
And even better, to put it on the shoulders of the new American administration.

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Content: Photo Credit: Marc Israel Sellem / POOL

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Europe’s energy markets have experienced high electricity prices and multiple gas supply disruptions that have prompted a dramatic rethinking of European energy security strategy. While Europe has been able to withstand the brunt of the energy crisis so far thanks to a relatively mild winter and ample reserves of Russian gas, it is gearing up for a more difficult winter season next year.

Depending on how the war develops in 2023 and how committed European countries prove to be to their sanctions against Russian oil and gas imports, this year may provide several opportunities to develop Israel’s gas export potential, oil transit and storage capabilities, and renewable energy sales. While these opportunities could be rewarding, they entail economic, security, and environmental risks that need to be taken into consideration.

  1. Increased Potential for Israeli Gas Exports
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Ever since the discovery of major offshore gas deposits in 2009 and 2010, Israel has been struggling to secure major export deals to Europe. Several hurdles, including the relatively small amount of gas available for export, the challenging topography of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, and political feuds over maritime borders have made it too expensive and risky for private companies to invest the billions of dollars needed to construct an underwater pipeline from Israel to Europe. As a result, Israel has yet to find buyers for about two-thirds of the gas it has earmarked for export and has seen its bidding rounds for new gas exploration licenses repeatedly fail.

This could change following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which caused a major price hike for imported gas in Europe and a new desire among EU policymakers to secure non-Russian gas supplies even at higher cost, especially liquified natural gas (LNG).

These developments in Europe are important for Israeli gas prospects because up to now, Israel’s two main potential export destinations have proven out of reach on both economic and political grounds: a pipeline to Greece and a pipeline to Turkey. The idea of an underwater pipeline from Israel to Greece through Cyprus (the East-Med Pipeline) excited policymakers in all three countries and spurred a series of high-profile meetings and agreements, but has yet to yield tangible results. The economic viability of such a pipeline has proven too difficult due to geographic and technical limitations.

If constructed, the East-Med pipeline would be the longest and deepest underwater pipeline in the world, reaching depths of 2,000 meters (compared to Nord Stream 2, which reaches a maximum depth of 210 meters). This depth limits how wide the diameter of the pipeline can be without collapsing in on itself, thus decreasing the amount of gas that can run through it. The East-Med would also need to run through areas near Crete that experience seismic activity, meaning its construction would entail multiple engineering challenges that will make it much more expensive.

These challenges can all be overcome, but will require that the end user (Greece) agree to pay a high fixed price for the gas as part of a 10–15-year binding contract to justify the costs of the pipeline. Initial estimates are that Greece will need to pay around $8 per MMBtu, while the average price of gas in Europe in recent years has hovered between $2-6 per MMBtu. Neither the Greek government nor any private companies have been willing so far to commit to such a deal. Adding to these complications is the feud among Greece, Cyprus, and Turkey over who controls the maritime territory through which the pipeline will need to pass.

Figure 1: Existing and Potential Gas Pipelines in the East Mediterranean

Source: Delek Group Ltd, Presentation for Investors, October 2017. Additional graphics: Elai Rettig

The economic and political impasse surrounding the East-Med pipeline to Greece has reawakened the dormant Israel-Turkey option. Turkey is a large natural gas market with an existing infrastructure (the TANAP pipeline) that can transit gas to Europe, making it — at least in theory — a good candidate for Israeli gas exports. However, attempts in 2015 to promote an underwater pipeline between Israel and Turkey failed over price disagreements and political tensions. Turkey demanded a lower price for the gas than the private gas companies could offer due to Israeli regulations. Israeli officials are also wary of Israel’s becoming too dependent on Turkey as its primary gas customer due to fears that Turkey will use the pipeline as a political tool.

Before signing such a deal, Israel would need to protect itself from deliberate disruption by securing assurances supported by third-party guarantees from either the US or the EU. For its part, the European Union has not been keen on the idea of bolstering Turkey’s position as Europe’s main gas transit country (in addition to its role in transiting gas from the Caspian region, Russia, Iraq, and potentially Iran), as doing so would grant Ankara economic and geopolitical advantages in its dealings with Europe.

The dramatic rise in European gas prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed some of the EU’s calculations, but not enough to justify a major pipeline deal to either Greece or Turkey. As prices have reached $25 per mmBTU in some European gas hubs, it may seem that expensive gas pipelines from the Eastern Mediterranean make much more sense than they did two years ago. However, it is not clear how long these high prices will hold. In some places, they have already dropped to pre-war levels.

A major infrastructure project from the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe can be completed by the end of 2025 at the earliest. But will the war in Ukraine still be going on in 2025? Will there still be sanctions against Russian gas? Will Putin still rule Russia? Until European investors know the answers to these questions, it is still a very risky prospect for the private sector to invest in multi-billion-dollar infrastructure. Unless the European Union provides guarantees that private investors won’t lose their investments once prices go down, Israeli gas companies are unlikely to be able to lock down a 10–15-year binding contract with a European customer.

The culmination of these political, economic, and technical limitations has pushed European customers to bet on the LNG option. For Europe, LNG imports offer more flexibility to search for non-Russian suppliers, freedom from transit states, and a quicker solution to the gas crisis than pipelines. While most efforts to build LNG intake terminals (i.e., regasification facilities) in Europe over the past decade have focused on Western Europe, the current crisis is pushing towards more terminals in central and southeastern Europe (including Greece, Italy, Poland, Germany, and Estonia).

Assuming the EU goes through with building these new LNG terminals and increases LNG demand over the next two to four years, it will still need to compete with Asia for demand. Europe has been lucky so far in that it did not need to compete with East Asia for LNG during 2022 due to a mild winter and COVID restrictions in China. But 2023 may see a surge in East Asian demand for LNG as China recovers from lockdowns, and the price may increase substantially. This will require much more LNG supply to come online in the next few years.

Israeli and regional investors are hopeful that LNG will be the next chapter for the East-Med gas export market, ridding it of the geopolitics of pipelines. The cheapest and most immediate option for Israel to export LNG to Europe would be to do it through Egypt’s two existing LNG terminals at Idku and Damietta. However, this does not represent an ideal solution. There is not much spare capacity left at those terminals to increase exports, they do not have the most efficient technology (a considerable amount of gas is lost during liquification), and they offer more geopolitical advantages to Egypt than to Israel. In addition, Israel needs to overcome infrastructure bottlenecks that are preventing it from exporting more gas to the LNG plants in Egypt. A new direct underwater pipeline will need to be built from its gas fields directly to the terminals.

Other LNG export options may exclude Egypt but contain challenges of their own. Israel can lease or purchase a floating LNG (FLNG) facility, which is cheaper and creates much less political pushback (i.e., NIMBY opposition over the shoreline in Israel). However, most FLNG ships generate only small amounts of gas (0.5-2 BCM annually), and even the biggest FLNG offers much less capacity to export compared to a regular land-based LNG terminal (4-6 BCM annually vs. 12 BCM).

Another option would be to construct a land-based LNG terminal in Cyprus. However, this might anger Egypt, which aspires to become the “LNG hub” of the Eastern Mediterranean. It could also create problems with Turkey over contested political waters around Cyprus.

  1. Turning Israel into an Oil Transit Route to Europe

In addition to raising natural gas prices, the war in Ukraine is causing a major shift in global oil transit routes, putting the Eastern Mediterranean, and particularly Israel, right in the middle. As European sanctions against Russian oil come into play at the beginning of 2023, Russian oil is heading towards East Asia instead (e.g., China and India). Some of this oil is shipping through the Northern arctic route (which is more available to Russia due to climate change and melting glaciers), and some is going through the Eastern Mediterranean and the Suez Canal.

Russian oil is being sold at a deep discount and is accordingly grabbing market share at the expense of the Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait. In return, Europe is asking for more oil from the Gulf to compensate for the loss of Russian oil, which means more Gulf oil is flowing West through the Suez Canal and the Eastern Mediterranean to reach European markets.

This reconfiguration of global oil routes can reignite and even expand Israel’s role as a transit and storage destination for Europe-bound oil via the EAPC pipeline. Over the past two decades, the Europe-Asia Pipeline Company, previously the Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline Company (EAPC, or KATZAA in Hebrew), has been a minor player in storing and moving Russian, Azerbaijani, and Kazakh oil from north to south (Ashkelon is in the Eastern Mediterranean and Eilat is on the Red Sea), thus reducing the costs of transit through the Suez Canal. Following the Abraham Accords, Israel signed a deal to transit UAE oil from south to north (Eilat to Ashkelon), reversing the flow of the pipeline and substantially increasing the amount of oil it transfers. The deal quickly created controversy in Israel due to the substantial environmental risks that increased oil movement in the Eilat bay could cause to marine life and the tourism industry in case of accident, and the deal became mostly dormant. However, a combination of pressure from the US and Europe to help move cheaper Gulf oil through the Red Sea during this time of crisis, along with the new Netanyahu government’s keen desire to expand relations with the UAE (and perhaps the Saudi kingdom), may revive the UAE-EAPC deal.

 Figure 2: Existing and Potential Oil Transit Routes via the EAPC

Source: Europe Asia Pipeline Company Website, Digital Magazine. Additional graphics: Elai Rettig

More oil flowing to Europe through Israel and Egypt entails considerable environmental and security risks for both the Red Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Potential for oil leaks and accidents will inevitably rise along with increased movement of oil tankers, requiring more cooperation among the countries of the region in standardizing monitoring and quick-response measures. The movement of Israel-bound oil tankers in the Red Sea may also increase potential for Iranian sabotage, especially near the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits, where they could be vulnerable to Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Operations of this kind may be more appealing to Iran than operations in the Persian/Arabian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz, which could block Iran’s oil shipments as well. Increased Iranian maritime threats require deeper cooperation among the region’s naval forces, a process that is already underway.

  1. A Brighter Future for Israeli Renewable Energy Technology

Finally, Europe’s energy challenges are creating a major push towards alternative energy solutions in both Europe and the Arab Gulf States, offering Israel a major role as a leader in clean-tech innovation. On the European side, while the energy crisis is causing a rise in demand for oil, gas, and coal in the short term, it is also encouraging further investment in solar, wind, and even nuclear alternatives to increase independence from Russian imports over the longer term. This should cause a substantial rise in clean energy project funding throughout Europe in the next few years, allowing Israel to bid for projects and take an active part in the transformation. This is especially relevant for Israeli innovation in solar energy, cyber defense for smart grids, and energy efficiency solutions. Other promising avenues may include hydrogen and energy storage technology innovation.

An additional market for Israeli innovation is the Arab Gulf States as they look for solutions to decrease domestic demand for oil and gas through alternative energy systems. Saudi Arabia, for example, loses almost a third of its oil production due to local demand in the form of heavily subsidized electricity generation and gasoline, as well as other subsidized products. As the Gulf States are experiencing a boom in population and a rise in the standard of living, this rising trend not only places a heavy burden on government budgets but also obstructs the Gulf’s ability to meet growing European demand as Russian oil sanctions revamp the global oil map. Israeli efficiency and solar innovation may thus help the Gulf States meet growing domestic demand while making more oil and gas available to European customers searching for non-Russian supply — a win-win for all parties.

(Written by Dr. Elai Rettig, lecturer and assistant professor in the Department of Political Studies and a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. He specializes in energy geopolitics, national security, and international environmental policy)

{Reposted from BESA site}

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The policy was largely driven by public opposition to nuclear energy due to safety concerns and the long-term challenges of nuclear waste disposal.

Title:

Content: Supplement
Sunday WorkShop
Germany wants to scrap nuclear waste coal, rely on Russian natural gas supply, the United States and Russia to compete for the energy market
[Ming Pao News] Nord Stream 2 is a natural gas pipeline from western Russia to northeastern Germany, which is 1,200 kilometers long. It was expected to be opened in the middle of this year.
Germany and Europe are the main exporters of Russian natural gas. During the Ukraine crisis, Nord Stream 2 was placed at the negotiating table, which public opinion said was Putin ’ s fear and Germany ’ s only leverage.
However, since Russian natural gas is also Germany's energy lifeline, Prime Minister Scholz has also been reluctant to sanction the Russian side with this.
Recently, some German politicians proposed to reduce dependence on Russia, in the country gradually eliminate nuclear waste coal, want to achieve "net zero emissions" before 2045, what choice?
Lip and Tooth Dependent Historical Origins
About 80% of Russian natural gas is exported to Europe, accounting for about 40% of Europe ’ s natural gas demand.
In Germany, natural gas accounted for about 27% of energy consumption last year, of which about 32% came from Russia.
If Nord Stream 2 goes live, Russia could double its natural gas supply to Europe.
Germany and Russia are now closely intertwined. Stefan Auer, Associate Professor of European Studies at HKU, and Alexey Maslov, Dean of the Faculty of Asian and African Studies at Moscow University, point to several turning points to explain why Germany has become the main agent of Russian gas throughout Europe.
Moreover, this is not just a cooperation between the two countries, but also involves German companies, large and small, and investors.
1969: Pipeline for natural gas
Former Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko visited West Germany and proposed economic cooperation.
West German Chancellor Willy Brandt also pursued a policy of reconciliation with the East, with the strategy of “through trade transformation ” (Wandel durch Handel).
West Germany became a rare Western partner for the Soviet Union, with West Germany building steel pipelines and the Soviet Union supplying natural gas. The contract was signed the following year, which was regarded as the most politically important East-West agreement of the Cold War.
1973: Business cooperation
Ruhrgas AG purchases natural gas from the Soviet Union through East Germany and then expands its natural gas supply to other European countries.
Over the next few decades, Russian gas company Gazprom ’ s ties with German companies grew, extending to cultural exchanges, such as art exhibitions and sponsorship of art institutions, which Maslov said went beyond commercial cooperation. Auer said Willy Brandt ’ s conciliatory ideas continued to influence left-wing German politicians and intellectuals, who saw these shifts as contributing to the end of the Cold War and the end of communism in Europe.
2006: Development of Nord Stream
After the Cold War, more Dodd companies joined the investment in Russian and German natural gas projects, including chemical giant BASF and industrial giant Siemens.
The Nord Stream project was established in 2006, which Maslov described as "an extension of existing cooperation".
Line 1 opened in 2011.
In 2013, Gazprom and Germany ’ s Verbundnetz Gas signed an agreement on cooperation in oil and gas technology until 2030. Auer argued that Schörtz ’ s avoidance of talks on the operational Nord Stream 1 and the non-operational 2 was due to the huge compensation to be paid to the joint venture if the government suspended the project for political reasons.
1.
Private projects or diplomatic tools?
Gas is seen as a weapon of diplomacy, allowing Russia to provide accumulated foreign exchange in response to Western sanctions.
Despite opposition from its European neighbors, two German prime ministers, Merkel and Schörtz, have insisted that Nord Stream 2 is a private project.
Russia:
From the perspective of Gazprom, the Russian natural gas company, Maslov pointed out that the government directly or indirectly owns 50.23% of the shares, mainly represented by the Federal State Property Administration, so from a structural point of view, it is a state-owned company.
He stressed that the role of the government is to provide funds, and there is no such thing as a gold stock system (that is, state-owned shareholders have more voting rights), and the decision-making is the responsibility of the board of directors.
However, it has recently been reported that former German Chancellor Schroeder will become a member of the board of directors, causing controversy.
Germany:
"(called a private project) is undoubtedly a convenient way to avoid the problem of war."
Daniel Marwecki, a German lecturer in the Department of Politics and Public Administration at HKU, said that after World War II Germany learned to avoid war and that its defence was dependent on the United States: “So peaceful relations with Russia are very important. ”
Economic cooperation is easier to achieve and is also a bargaining chip to avoid war.
Geographically, if Eastern Europe goes to war, Germany is closer to the battlefield than Britain and the United States: "For Germany, it is very important to avoid war by all means, especially nuclear war." In addition, Britain and France have developed other sources of energy, including nuclear energy, only Germany has increased its dependence on Russia in view of the Fukushima nuclear disaster.
He said this was not a problem when the United States was strong and the post-Cold War order was stable: “The economic needs of Germany and Russia offset each other. ”
But now the attitude of the Russian side has changed sharply, and the situation in Germany is worrying.
2.
The United States agrees with Russia.
Biden once threatened Russia at North Stream 2, but Schörtz, who was next to him, did not show support, indicating that virtue is divided. Maslov said that the United States has rarely interfered in Europe-Russia energy relations in the past, this time clearly out of economic "separation", playing a war card to undermine Europe-Russia commercial contracts, and by attacking the European gas market to become a supplier.
But he pointed out that neither Germany nor the United States can replace Russia's natural gas supply.
He also noted that Biden recently said that once a war, the United States will not send troops, only sanctions, "that is, the United States does not want to involve in the military, only wants to pressure the Russian side from the economy."
He believes Biden is not bluffing, but if Nord Stream 2 is suspended, Germany will lose more than Russia.
German public opinion favors buying Russian energy
Germany stands on the same side as Russia on the US stand. Marwecki said that the German mainstream actually supports Nord Stream 2, and even is comfortable with the status quo. "The more the United States criticizes Germany's dependence on Russia, the more the Germans want to maintain this dependence."
Due to the casualties caused by the German invasion of Russia during World War II, the Germans are now generally more accepting of Russia.
He said that the German world view is simple, only want cheap energy and exports, the most ideal situation is: trade, exports, no war, just as the Sino-German relationship is that German companies make cars in China and sell a large number of cars to China.
"There is some foreground behind it, because the German defense is mainly dependent on the United States."
However, the coalition government is divided, the Green Party is a cautious internationalist and ideological, like the new Green Party foreign minister Baerbock against Nord Stream 2, stand close to the United States.
But Schörtz's Social Democrats were more pragmatic, knowing that shelving Nord Stream 2 would cost Germany.
At present, the strategy adopted by Germany is to avoid talking about it, and expect the situation to cool down, and then launch the Nord Stream 2, which is already ready.
3.
If Russia loses Europe, there will still be China.
Russia is the third largest natural gas supplier to China, and the two sides also jointly mine gas fields in the Arctic, including the Marr Peninsula.
Last year, China signed a new gas contract with Russian energy company Novatek for a period of 15 years.
Maslov said that although China has set carbon reduction targets, but at the same time knows that it is not realistic, so in recent years, it has taken the initiative to speed up Sino-Russian energy cooperation to supply gas to the northeast and Xinjiang.
"This is part of Sino-Russian cooperation, so we call it strategic cooperation, not just to supply oil and gas to China."
He added that Russia, facing competition from other Central Asian countries such as Turkmenistan, has gone through a “painful price process ” with China, and the final price is not as low as expected.“ All gas contracts are for the future and may become cheaper in the future. ”
China-Russia Energy Cooperation Continues to Be Important in European Market
Maslov believes that even if China becomes a major export market, Russia will not cut off supply to Europe to maintain competitive market relations. “It is not ideal to work only with China, so I think Russia will try to restore cooperation with Germany. ”
4.
Energy autonomy is difficult.
Natural gas is the transition fuel of the "European Green New Deal". Robert Habeck, a member of the Green Party and the German Minister of Economy and Climate, recently said that the geopolitical situation forced Germany to think about other natural gas supplies, so as not to become a "game piece".
But Marwecki said that the import of natural gas from Russia or the United States would become a political chip. “Energy has always been a political weapon, and imagine that if there were another person like Trump, it would be the same. ”
European countries are actively exploring renewable energy, but full independence is still a long way away, and the only way to maximize local production and supply is to maximize local capacity.
Germany plans to build liquefied natural gas receiving terminals, regulate the natural gas reserves of energy companies and develop clean energy sources such as hydrogen.
He said the Green Party is vague about this, that Germany wants to abolish nuclear power and reduce coal consumption, "they have not answered where to get enough renewable energy." The current government insists on abolishing the nuclear route, Auer said: "In my view, it is a wrong strategy."
Because the crisis in Ukraine exposed the limitations of dependence on Russia: “With Russia ’ s track record, environmental protection will not improve anywhere if it is allowed to have more geopolitical influence. ”
In a world dominated by China and Russia, Europe will face more pressing problems.
""
Europe is alienated from Russia.
Maslov also believes that the renewable energy developed in Europe is not enough to shake up the status of Russia, he cited China as an example: "China was the first to promote wind power, but even the electricity of small cities can not be satisfied." Greece, Portugal, France and others are developing renewable energy, but it is a drop in the bucket.
Therefore, he believes that neither France nor Germany ’ s “clear-headed politicians ” want to distance themselves from Russia, and he believes that the West still has to rely on natural gas and other purification technologies and regulatory measures to achieve its carbon reduction goals.
However, he pointed out that there is a huge gap between business and political needs in Europe, and the stalemate between Europe and Russia will continue for at least three to five years, and it will be difficult in the short term to return to the close relationship that it was 10 years ago.
However, with the exchange of natural gas and oil technology between the two sides and the opening of the Nord Stream 2 and its surrounding pipeline construction, Russia can still secure its position as a natural gas supplier with price and production advantages.
5.
The two countries' hearts.
Maslov said Russia has only two goals: to participate in European political and security decisions; and to prevent NATO from expanding eastward.
Russia sees itself as a member of Europe and is not content to be a mere supplier of oil and gas, but has for years been “sidelined ” by Europe when discussing issues in Ukraine, Crimea and the Donbas region.
“Russia ’ s position was clearly accepted under Hillary [as secretary of state], but it has deteriorated since the late Obama administration, especially during the Trump years, ” he said. He believes that this is the main reason for Russia to“ move from the West to the East ” and draw closer to China, making it clear that it is impossible to rebuild relations with the United States or Europe.
The advantage of Sino-Russian cooperation is that the two have their own plans. The former has a "Belt and Road" and the latter advocates "Greater Europe and Asia", which do not overlap and conflict, but share common values and goals.
He noted that at the Sino-Russian summit earlier this month, the two countries began to talk about democracy, military and cyber security, as well as a joint defense against Western sanctions.
“All the actions of the United States have taken us to a new world, to become more regional. ”
As for Germany, Marwecki said that the whole country has a pacifist tendency, and the society is more tolerant of Russia than other European countries.
At the same time, the government is full of opinions, including the transatlantic camp, the United States camp, the German independent camp, the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party also hold different positions on the power struggle.
But there is no doubt that this is the moment of maximum military deployment in Europe after World War II, and a major crisis after Schörz came to power. Under the constraints of a joint government, he felt that Schörz was doing what he could, including showing in Washington that Germany was on the side of the West, and in Moscow ’ s insistence on resolving problems diplomatically. "It is our damned responsibility to avoid war in Europe," he said.
by Vincent Leung
{Photo} Provided by respondents, Gazprom website, Agence France-Presse
{Art} Chang Yu-chi
{edit} Au Yang Dezhi
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Content: Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing hard with the European Union, cutting off gas supplies to some of his best buyers in a fit of rage over sanctions imposed after the start of the special operation in Ukraine, write Lorenz Gerke, Karl Matisen and Paola Tamma on June 20 in the European version of Politico.
Pierre Edouard Frere.
Furnace Melting (Fragment)
As a result, the authorities of these countries are under enormous political pressure, there is a risk that in the case of a cold winter, the inhabitants of European countries will simply freeze, and there is a danger of disrupting the climate goals of the bloc, whose states have to switch their energy from gas to coal.
Such a development could even lead to a recession on the continent.
Simone Tagliapietra, a specialist at the Bruegel think tank, calls Russia ’ s policy “energy blackmail. ”
Only 40% of the normal volume of gas passes through the Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Germany, which affects supplies to France, Italy and Austria, as well as to Germany.
Russia ’ s gas monopoly, Gazprom, has already cut off all supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Finland and Denmark after energy companies in those countries refused to comply with the Kremlin ’ s demands to pay for supplies in rubles.
In response, some countries are planning to launch coal-fired power plants.
“It is necessary to recognize that Putin is gradually reducing gas supplies to Europe, including to increase gas prices, and we must take retaliatory measures, ” German Economy and Climate Minister Robert Habeck said in a television interview on June 19, adding that“ this is a tense, serious situation. ”
Austria plans to restart one of its coal-fired power plants, Poland seeks to subsidize coal mining for heating their homes, and the Netherlands on June 20 decided to abandon previously adopted plans to limit electricity generation at its four coal-fired power plants.
“If it weren ’ t for these special times, we would never have done it, ” Dutch climate and energy minister Rob Jetten said.
Compressor station "Portovaya"
Official website of PJSC Gazprom
Nord Stream gas pipeline
Official website of PJSC Gazprom
The Italian government is scheduled to hold a crisis meeting on June 21, while Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi has ordered two LNG regasification plants and is negotiating with countries including Qatar, Angola and Algeria to sign gas supply agreements from them in a desperate attempt to secure supplies in the event of a halt to imports from Russia.
Brussels, for its part, seeks to radiate confidence, but its anxiety is obvious.
“We take the current situation very seriously.
But we are ready, ” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at a meeting with journalists on June 20.
Times are not getting easier. ”
Dirty Deals
Such a desire to start using coal again to provide energy is, in symbolic terms, inconvenient for the inhabitants of European countries, which are very concerned about the climate.
However, few believe that the EU or its member states will move far from their previous policy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
In Germany, officials are adamant that the return of coal will be short-lived and will not jeopardize the country ’ s ambition to phase out its use by 2030.
Coal will act as a reserve for the energy sector, allowing the country to build up gas reserves before winter.
Meanwhile, the government plans to rapidly increase the production of clean energy.
Coal thermal power plant in Förde, Germany
Daniel Ullrich Threedots
According to Simon Muller, director of Agora Energiewende analytical center, political support for renewable energy sources has increased in Germany due to Russia ’ s special operation in Ukraine.
“This additional urgency factor that we now have in the face of this situation helps provide the political momentum that we need for some very important accelerations in the development of renewable energy, ” Mueller said.
The German parliament is considering 10 measures on energy efficiency and renewable energy, and as Müller noted, the three-party coalition as a whole adheres to the importance of removing barriers to green energy.
Green organizations are also optimistic.
“There is currently no plan in Germany that could call into question the timing of a coal phase-out, ” said Christoph Bals, political director of Germanwatch.
But the need to quickly change the approach to coal recycling is exacerbating political tensions.
In Berlin, the conservative opposition criticized Habeck for allowing more coal to be used, while excluding the further operation of Germany ’ s three remaining nuclear power plants after the end of this year.
“I do not understand why the climate minister of the Greens prefers to extend the operation of coal-fired power plants, rather than carbon-neutral nuclear power plants, ” Jens Spahn, deputy head of the Christian Democratic Party in parliament, told German television on June 20.
The policy of abandoning nuclear energy was adopted by the former leader of his party, Angela Merkel.
And this course is a source of tension within the ruling coalition.
“It is necessary that the three remaining nuclear power plants last longer, ” said Bijan Jir-Sarai, secretary general of the Liberal Free Democrats.
While acknowledging that the move was a “violation of the taboo, ” Habek said coal is still better than a revival of nuclear power, arguing that a change in nuclear policy would only have an impact at the end of next year — too late to prepare for this winter.
He was supported by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who said in an interview published on June 20 that “nuclear energy will not help us now or in the next two years, and that is the main thing. ”
Political leaders are calling on their people to save energy and cut gas consumption, while governments are working to increase storage capacity to allow the continent to survive the winter shutdown of gas supplies to Russia.
At the very least, they are thinking about rationing the gas.
Cutting off gas supplies will almost certainly lead the bloc into recession.
The European Central Bank has warned that next year the eurozone economy will shrink by 1.7% if Russia completely closes the faucet.
“Power outages and small opportunities for immediate replacement of gas supplies from Russia are likely to require some rationing and redistribution of resources, which will lead to a reduction in production in the eurozone, in particular in energy-intensive sectors, ” the bank said in a statement, according to which, if this happens, the bloc ’ s economy will recover next year.
But the ECB also issued a warning to Russia.
“As for the Russian economy, the scenario assumes a serious recession with a contraction in production similar to the contraction that occurred during the collapse of the Soviet Union, ” the organization said.

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This Is What a Nuclear War Would Do to the World

24/7 Wall St.
 2 days ago

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised the specter of a nuclear war between Russia and the West, led by the United States. ( This is the country with the most nuclear weapons .)

The concern is that if Russia gets bogged down in a conventional war, or is losing it, the Kremlin will resort to using tactical nuclear weapons, which could be utilized over relatively short distances. Russia would employ these weapons to try and defeat Ukraine and at the same time intimidate the West. The greater danger is a miscalculation by either side that can lead to an escalation in the use of nuclear weaponry - and to the worst catastrophe in human history.

To determine what a nuclear war would do to the world, 24/7 Wall St. gleaned information from the book “ Nuclear Choices for the Twenty-First Century: A Citizen’s Guide ” written by Richard Wolfson, a Benjamin F. Wissler Professor of Physics at Middlebury College, and Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, a Scientist-in-Residence at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. Wolfson and Dalnoki-Veress also wrote in MIT Press The Reader a summary of the book, The Devastating Effects of Nuclear Weapons .

Other information was gathered from various media outlets and websites Futurism , and Nuclear War Map . We included various outcomes from nuclear wars since not all possible scenarios are all-out conflicts.

Even though not every scenario involving the use of nuclear weapons ends in Armageddon, the deployment of the most lethal weaponry in a limited or regional conflict has dire consequences for the planet.

A nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan could mean as many as 125 million fatalities. Nuclear-triggered fires would produce smoke that would eventually climb into the stratosphere, where it would spread globally within weeks. There would be a dramatic decline in surface sunlight, global temperatures would fall, and precipitation would drop. There would be famine and mass starvation and possibly other disasters. Recovery would take more than 10 years. (Speaking of India, this is the country with the largest military .)

An all-out war, what experts have called “unthinkable,” probably means the end of our world. Cities would be targeted with multiple weapons, and lethal fallout would cover much of the United States. More than half of the U.S. population would be killed initially, and the survivors would be exposed to radiation high enough to cause lowered disease resistance and greater incidence of fatal cancer.

Click here for what a nuclear war would do to the world

17. Burst of radiation

When any nuclear weapon explodes, there is an intense burst of nuclear radiation, mostly gamma rays and neutrons. This direct radiation is produced in the weapon's nuclear reactions themselves and lasts less than a second. Lethal direct radiation can extend nearly 1 mile from a 10-kiloton explosion.

16. Fireball

After detonation, a fireball of superheated air forms and grows rapidly. Ten seconds after a 1-megaton blast, the fireball is 1 mile in diameter. The early stages of a 1-megaton fireball are many times brighter than the Sun.

ALSO READ: This Is the Country With the Most Nuclear Weapons

15. Severe burns

The intense heat can ignite fires and cause severe burns on exposed flesh as far as 20 miles away from a large thermonuclear explosion.

14. Blast wave

As the fireball expands into the air it creates a blast wave consisting of a sudden jump in air pressure. The wave extends outward at thousands of miles per hour at first then slows as it spreads. It carries about half the bomb's explosive energy and is responsible for most of the physical destruction.

13. Air burst

The most widespread damage to structures occurs in an air burst, a detonation thousands of feet above the target. The blast wave from an air burst reflects off the ground, which enhances its destructive power. Attacks on cities would probably use air bursts.

12. Ground burst

A ground burst creates a massive crater and pulverizes everything in the immediate area. Its blast effects do not extend as far as an air blast. Ground bursts would be employed against hardened targets like underground missile silos.

11. Radius of destruction

The radius and volume of destruction depend on the explosive yield. But because the volume is proportional to the radius cubed, the volume increases approximately by the cube root of the yield, so the relative increase in destructive effect compared to the increase in yield is small. The effects of nuclear weapons on populations are also subject to many environmental and geographic variables.

ALSO READ: 40 Countries Spending the Most on War

10. Firestorm

Under some circumstances, fires may combine into a single huge conflagration called a firestorm that can develop its own winds and cause the inferno to spread. Hot gases rise from the firestorm, replaced by air rushing inward along the surface at hundreds of miles per hour. Winds and fire compound the blast damage, and the blaze consumes oxygen, suffocating survivors. Firestorms also might impact global climate for decades.

9. Radioactive fallout

Fallout consists primarily of fission products. Fallout contamination is unique to nuclear weapons and it may linger for decades. The most potent effects can last for weeks. The fallout impact produced in a nuclear explosion depends on the type of weapon, its explosive yield, and where it is exploded. Modern nuclear weapons can produce global fallout. The global impact from these huge weapons comes partly from the quantity of radioactive material and from the radioactive cloud that rises into the stratosphere, where it may take up to years to reach the ground.

8. Light damage zone

Broken windows and more easily managed injuries occur in zones farther from the initial blast zone.

7. Moderate damage zone

In the moderate damage zone, there is significant building damage, rubble, downed utility lines and poles, overturned automobiles, fires, and serious injuries.

6. Severe damage zone

This is the most catastrophic of the damage scenarios. Buildings collapse, radiation levels are high, and survivors are unlikely.

ALSO READ: 50 of the Most Decorated War Heroes in American History

5. Electromagnetic pulse

A nuclear weapon exploded at very high altitude may not produce the previously mentioned destruction but it produces intense gamma rays that knock electrons out of atoms. When the blast occurs at high altitude, this effect may reach hundreds of miles. As they gyrate in the Earth's magnetic field, the electrons generate an extreme pulse of radio waves. This is known as an electromagnetic pulse. A single large weapon detonated 200 miles over the central United States could blanket the entire country with an electromagnetic pulse intense enough to damage computers, communication systems, and other electronic devices.

4. Limited nuclear war

Experts have pointed to the ongoing conflict between nuclear powers Pakistan and India as an example of a possible limited nuclear-war scenario. If India and Pakistan use 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers each, fatalities could reach 50 million to 125 million people.

Nuclear-ignited fires could generate smoke that will rise into the upper troposphere, then into the stratosphere, where it will spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight could decline by as much as 35%, cooling the global surface and reducing precipitation by as much as 30%. Land productivity would drop up to 30%. A mass starvation event is possible as well as other collateral disasters. Recovery would take more than 10 years.

3. All-out nuclear war

In an all-out war, cities worldwide would be targeted with multiple weapons, and lethal fallout would cover much of the United States. Survivors could avoid fatal radiation exposure only when sheltered with adequate food, water, and medical supplies. Despite this precaution, millions would be exposed to radiation high enough to cause lowered disease resistance and greater incidence of fatal cancer. Diminished disease resistance could lead to death from common infections because the population would be deprived of adequate medical facilities. The spread of diseases from contaminated water supplies, inadequate sanitary facilities, and lack of medicines will kill millions more.

2. All-out nuclear war continued

In the event of an all-out nuclear war, half of the U.S. population, more than 150 million people, would be killed. Many of the survivors would have severe skin burns, radiation sickness, untreated injuries, and there will be shortages of everything, leading to a complete breakdown of society.

1. Nuclear winter

Ozone gas, an unusual form of oxygen, absorbs the sun's ultraviolet radiation. A nuclear war would produce massive amounts of ozone-consuming chemicals. Studies suggest that even a modest nuclear exchange would result in unprecedented increases in ultraviolet exposure. This would disrupt the process of photosynthesis. Marine life might be damaged by the increased ultraviolet radiation, and humans could receive blistering sunburns.

Higher levels of UV radiation would also lead to a greater incidence of fatal skin cancers and to general weakening of the human immune system. Soot from the fires of burning cities after a nuclear exchange would be injected high into the atmosphere. The result would be a drop in global temperature, probably colder than the previous ice age. In the world's agricultural regions, the temperature could be below freezing for a year or more, and precipitation would fall by 90%.

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Vare: the only hope is that winter will be warm and windy
Merkel ’ s departure will not give more space for Brussels
• Problems with energy prices may worsen
• Holy green targets cannot be taken by a cavalry attack
• No need to spit into the old well until the new one is dug
What does the German left mean for Europe?
How will the new German government address key issues?
Will the country ’ s foreign policy change?
The questions of Rus.Postimees were answered live by the expert on international relations, entrepreneur Raivo Vare.
Excerpts from the conversation:
Can energy prices get even worse?
- Maybe.
If all over the world prices are creeping up, and on the Dutch hub the tariff has already exceeded 1000 euros per cubic meter with the usual price under 200 euros (even cheaper for Western Europe), then I assume that the problem will worsen everywhere.
Consumption is growing everywhere, with supplies everywhere interruptions and even in China (because of problems with the supply of coal) there are interruptions in the supply of electricity, under attack the collection of agricultural products.
The global energy deficit is superimposed on the already ongoing rise in prices for agricultural products.
In this situation, gas prices drag other prices along with them.
1
It is already clear that prices for coal - the first deputy for gas - went up, prices for petroleum products - another substitute for gas - also jumped.
- So, nothing good is waiting for us next winter?
The only hope is that the winter will be warm and windy.
Then it can do without interruptions.
1
In this scenario, the price will be volatile and from time to time record, but at least will not keep at a very high level all the time.
The general price level is expected to remain relatively high until the beginning of the second quarter.
The leader of the German Social Democrats, Scholz, is a supporter of a centralized Europe.
Can we expect that Germany will begin to defend its interests less and the center of power will begin to shift to Brussels officials?
- I don't think so.
There is another contender for the role of leader of Europe – the President of France.
Macron, in any case, will try to occupy Merkel ’ s niche.
And in fact, it will not give more space for Brussels.
1
It will be a game according to Macron ’ s rules or according to his agreements with Berlin.
Holtz is in a weaker position.
Merkel was a very influential leader in Europe.
Is there any confidence that Macron will be able to take her place?
- The main difference is that if Merkel enjoyed an unusually large proportion and significance of Germany, without projecting it on herself, and was engaged in very pragmatic activities, then Macron is not given this.
He won't be able to act like that.
Under Macron, certain troubles are inevitable.
But all the actions of Paris and Berlin are precisely coordinated in the EU ’ s foreign policy.
1
It will be a unified foreign policy with raising the status of the highest representative in foreign policy.
In fact, this means strengthening the common foreign policy of the EU, which is provided by both Paris and Berlin.
Does Europe have a chance to become an independent player on the world stage?
Europe has no other options.
The discord of the European position in the international arena leads to the fact that its share in the economy is not projected on everything else, and on international politics in the first place.
Merkel was cautious and attentive to all opinions.
Paris is not likely to pursue this policy.
Why prepare for Estonia?
- In any case, a strong German vector will remain inside the EU.
The green agenda is likely to increase.
1
We will have to work hard on that too.
The EU ’ s new unified policy will also have to be taken into account.
– As for the strengthening of the green course, does not Estonia go too far?
“The whole problem is not that we actively adhere to the green course, but that we are trying to fulfill our sacred goals with a cavalry attack.
This is fraught with problems for society.
1
The problems in the energy sector are not due to the fact that the green theme is bad.
Just under this noise and under this good goal, we are trying to eliminate the managed capacities - crucial for crisis situations and in conditions of surging prices.
You need to have a reserve.
And the general position is that it is not much needed.
They say, if necessary, we will bring all the connections from Portugal.
Now it turns out that cable connections are not enough.
And it is not a fact that we will get anything in a crisis situation at all.
Do we have contract opportunities?
In the region as a whole, there is a shortage of other production capacities.
There will be a deficit from time to time.
And we're not ready for that.
If there are no reserves, then in addition to frantic prices, we will have to worry about the fact that the supply of electricity does not stop at all and all the bulbs are burning.
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- Your suggestions?
- The main thing is not to spit in the old well, until the new one is dug.
It is necessary to maintain certain reserve capacities (shale bases) after 2023.
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It is also necessary to accelerate the creation of green capacities: not only wind turbines, which provide 30% of the load, but also managed green capacities - hydropower, battery solutions and other options.
No one is doing this now, alas.
The energy crisis is due to the fact that Europe has chosen gas as an intermediate shock absorber, until 2050 all the necessary green capacities of a manageable nature will be put into operation.
And under the noise of this policy, fossil and nuclear power are gradually closing down.
- What are the prospects for Nord Stream 2 after the change of power in Germany?
- The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline has already been technically completed, but it must still be certified and approved from the point of view of the third energy package of the EU (to limit the monopoly of gas and electricity suppliers, approx. ed.), which is also taken into account in the draft US military budget.
I think we should take a closer look at the statement of the German Chamber of Industry.
According to their forecast, the process will take another four months.
Secondly, the German authorities will have to assess the business model of the pipeline by January 6 for what it will look like against the background of the third European package.
Other players will also be involved in this assessment.
For example, the Polish gas operator, which has already stated that the project does not fit into the third energy package.
So from a political-market point of view, there may still be twists and turns around this business model.
At the same time, Gazprom is delaying additional gas supplies to Europe, and European storage facilities have turned out to be almost empty.
Now they are filled, but strictly on a contractual basis, without any additional volumes.
As a result, if, taking into account the season, Eurostorages should be filled by more than 90%, then now there are only 70%.
Additional volumes could be delivered through the Belarusian-Polish and Ukrainian pipes, but this does not happen.
There is a political moment here.
This is dictated by the desire to spur a faster commissioning of Nord Stream 2, since it will give some effect.
It is predicted that the pipeline will be put into operation and even monopoly issues will be resolved, but there will be restrictions stemming from the third energy package of the EU - capacity utilization of only 50% for both branches.
This will not solve the winter situation.
According to forecasts, both in the world and in Europe, the difficult situation with gas will continue and high prices will remain.
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More in Repeat!
Will the Social Democrats be able to form a coalition with the Liberals and Greens?
• What does such a sharp left turn of Germany mean for Europe?
• How will relations with Russia change?
What are the prospects for Nord Stream 2?
• Can energy prices get worse?
Angela Merkel is a powerful leader in Europe.
Who will take her place?
• Can the EU power center under Olaf Scholz begin to shift to Brussels officials?
• Europe is experiencing a crisis in relations with the United States and Britain.
What will this lead to?
Clothing presenter: Tallinna Kaubamaja / Pinko
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