The multi-level marketing business model has declined significantly in recent years due to financial difficulties and criticism.

The evolution of MLM has led to salespeople buying their own products, creating a false perception of direct selling.

Avon and Tupperware struggle to adapt to the changing market, facing significant declines in stock value.

Avon's stock has dropped from over $30 to $3, while Tupperware's has fallen over 90% in 5 years.

Some MLM companies, like Nu Skin Enterprises, have seen a recruitment surge during the pandemic as people seek financial freedom.

Most MLM distributors earn little, with few achieving significant financial gains.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a mixed impact on the MLM industry, with some companies seeing increased sales and others experiencing revenue declines.

The pandemic has accelerated digital transformation in MLM companies due to new norms like remote work and physical distancing.

EDUC and similar companies have smoothed revenue growth in recent years by managing consultant recruitment to mitigate the pandemic's impact.

MLM companies attract potential workers with promises of flexible scheduling, unlimited earning potential, and being their own boss.

Vulnerable groups to multi-level marketing companies include stay-at-home parents, retirees, and those with low incomes or limited job opportunities.

These individuals are often more susceptible to MLM recruitment due to desires for financial stability, social connection, and purpose.

MLM companies often lure people in with promises of wealth, self-esteem, and independence, having a hypnotic effect.

Since 2020, several MLM companies have closed or shifted to direct sales due to factors including regulatory pressure, declining sales, and reputational damage from pyramid scheme allegations.

LuLaRoe and Young Living have faced lawsuits and regulatory scrutiny, leading to declining popularity and distributor losses.

The MLM business model is criticized for prioritizing recruitment over sales

The multi-level marketing business model has declined significantly in recent years due to financial difficulties and criticism.

Title:

Content: 'Direct Selling' - Avon, Tupperware - Is Extinct

Nov. 18, 2022 11:25 AM ETHLF, MED, NTCO, NUS, PRI, TUP, USNA3 Comments
Robert FitzPatrick
394 Followers

Summary

  • Direct Selling became obsolete generations ago. So how is it that millions today get recruited for "income opportunity" in "direct selling" and billions are traded on "direct selling" stocks?
  • Avon and Tupperware are cited by "multi-level marketing," or MLM, promoters as "proof" that MLM, e.g., Amway, Herbalife, is "direct selling."
  • Usable data on actual income and churn rates of MLM "direct sellers," market saturation, and retail sales to actual customers are not provided.
  • In fact, Avon and Tupperware for years have been walking dinosaurs, still trying to do "person-to-person" sales to end-users with commodity products, while MLMs hype "unlimited" income.
  • The shrunken and devolved state of Avon and Tupperware today reveals that direct selling is extinct. MLM is not, and never was, direct selling.

It is generally accepted that "direct selling" was killed off generations ago by mass merchandising, big box stores, mail-order and then the internet, among other societal changes. The "Fuller Brush man" is long gone. No one's at home. No one wants or needs or has time for a "personal" salesperson. Everything's in stores or online. And, even when "direct selling" still lived, no one ever went into that tough line of work thinking they would get rich from it.

Yet, each year, millions are recruited, and pay thousands, for the "opportunity" to work as "direct sellers," with promises and expectations of "unlimited" income. The number involved today is many, many times greater than ever worked in that "extinct" field decades ago. Billions are being traded on Wall Street for shares of "direct selling" companies. How can this be?

In my book, Ponzinomics, the Untold Story of Multi-Level Marketing, I document the death of "direct selling" and the 1945 invention of "multi-level marketing," or MLM. I describe how "MLM" falsely assumed direct selling's revered old identity. I trace MLM from its Adam, a little California-based company called "Nutrilite," to today's "industry" led by Amway, Herbalife (HLF) down 64% YTD, Nuskin (NUS) down 31%, USANA Health Sciences (USNA) down 49%, Primerica, Inc. (PRI) down 13%, and Medifast (MED) down 45%. MLM's financial solicitations for consumers to become "direct sellers" have reached into – and led to losses for – virtually every household in America.

In the newly invented "MLM," the main source of revenue shifted from end-user customers to the salespeople themselves who are incentivized to "be their own customer" by buying their own products. Obviously, no one makes money purchasing their own inventory, but MLM offered a unique reason to do so – "unlimited" income potential.

No More Need to Knock on Doors

All MLM "direct sellers" can potentially gain "unlimited" income by recruiting an "endless" chain of other "direct sellers." No need to pound the pavement and get rudely rejected at front doors any more. Each "direct seller" on the chain has to meet a quota to "qualify" for future rewards from their recruits who, in turn, are their "own customers" and recruiters too, ad infinitum. The chain can grow without continuous personal effort. The qualifying quota can usually be met by just making a personal monthly purchase of inventory. "Commissions" on all these transactions, all the way down to the "last ones in," flow up the chain. In the MLM pay plan, most of the total commissions go to the top 1%. So, all new "direct sellers" try mightily to recruit (and buy) their way to those top ranks. Of course, only a tiny few can ever be at the top.

Some people argued this is a pyramid recruiting scheme, inherently unfair and deceptive, and a counterfeit of direct selling. In the design and the pay plan, bottom ranks – the vast majority – will inevitably lose. They said constantly adding salespeople in any area destroys profitable retail selling potential, if any exists to start with. They cited data on 90-99% loss rates and huge churn rates among new "recruits" and asked, where are the retail "customers"?

While offering no data on retail customers or salespeople losses or market saturation, MLM promoters offered "proof" that MLM is direct selling by pointing to two long-established and respected direct selling companies in their ranks, Avon and Tupperware (TUP). Both companies were members of the Direct Selling Association, DSA, and both were "direct selling" icons, Avon for its "ladies" and Tupperware for its "parties." To any pyramid scheme accusations, MLM promoters indignantly countered: "Are you calling Avon and Tupperware pyramid schemes?"

Walking Dinosaurs

The truth for both companies is very different from the MLM-spin. Avon and Tupperware used to have differentiated products and real consumer demand. Their salespeople made money from their own retail sales. But moving into the 21st Century, Avon and Tupperware became walking dinosaurs, vestiges of the extinct era of "direct selling." They were still trying to base their businesses on their historical brands and on person-to-person retail sales to real customers, as direct selling companies always used to do.

Despite MLM's citing Avon and Tupperware, and thereby bestowing legitimacy on the "MLM" members of the Direct Selling Association, deep differences between those icons of the old era and MLM burst into public view in 2013-14. The two companies publicly quit the Direct Selling Association, charging ethics violations and DSA-member connections to pyramid schemes.

Avon's Long Good-Bye

Avon had been a true direct seller for decades before MLM was invented. But as the door-to-door model faded, Avon began a long decline. In 2000, Avon began shifting its focus to "incentivizing" salespeople to recruit more salespeople and getting them to buy inventory, MLM-style. In 2009, during the Great Recession, Avon ran its most expensive ad in history, on television during the Super Bowl. The ad never mentioned any Avon products! It only solicited "salespeople." Still, global revenue dropped continuously over the next 10 years. Avon stock value fell from over $30 to just over $3.

Finally, Avon split off its faltering North American business and sold it to the Korean company, LG Household & Health Care. Avon claimed to have 250,000 sales representatives in North America. The remaining global business was later sold to the Brazilian MLM, Natura (NTCO) down 50% YTD, which also owns the retailer, Body Shop. Though Avon global was much larger, Avon shareholders traded 3 shares of Avon for just one in Natura.

The Korean-owned segment of Avon in North America is now classic MLM, selling the proverbial MLM "income opportunity" along with "health" supplements, make-up, jewelry, clothing, scented candles, even toothpaste.

On the Canadian Avon website, Avon promotes the "income opportunity," urging prospects in large bold black type: "Think big. Sell Avon part-time, full-time, you decide how much! It’s your business, your way!"

A disclosure (legally required in Canada, but not in the USA) appears midway down a long webpage in tiny, barely visible gray lettering: "The 2020 earnings of a typical Avon Leadership Representative was between $0 and $2,620 in commissions and bonuses." That's $0 to $50 a week, before subtracting all costs! And the "disclosure" does not break out how much of that tiny return comes from personal sales or the "downline."

Avon quietly rejoined the Direct Selling Association. The Brazilian company, Natura, which took over Avon's global business in 2020, has lost over 60% of its stock value in the last year.

Tupperware on the Brink

Tupperware was one of the first "party plan" companies, which are technically a small subset of MLM. They employ an "endless" recruiting chain, but are more rooted in retail sales transacted at "parties." Tupperware used to have a popular brand with innovative, differentiated products. But, as true direct selling began to disappear, Tupperware went into decline. It added MLM-type "health and beauty" commodities to bolster recruiting appeal but then deleted them. This year, it began also selling its products in Target department stores. Its kitchen-related goods are generally not distinct from other brands. A 10-months "Income disclosure" for Canada (not published in the USA) showed that half the "party planners" were classified "inactive," earning less than $30 for the period on average. 94% of the "active" ones reportedly received about $12 a week on average, before expenses.

In the last 5 years, the stock value of Tupperware has dropped over 90%. Its latest financials warned investors the company may violate loan agreements, setting off speculation Tupperware might declare bankruptcy.

The shrunken and devolved state of Avon and Tupperware, the most famous brand-icons of "direct selling," makes citing them as a defense of "multi-level marketing" as extinct as their old business model.

This article was written by

394 Followers
Robert L. FitzPatrick is the author of the new book, Ponzinomics, the Untold Story of Multi-Level Marketing (2020),the first comprehensive history and analysis of the "MLM" phenomenon, addressing its political influence, propaganda techniques and use of cult persuasion. FitzPatrick is an expert in examining and revealing deception and fraud in Ponzi schemes, pyramid schemes and bogus home-based businesses. He served as expert or consultant in more than 30 court cases involving pyramid schemes and multi-level marketing. He is co-author of False Profits (1997), an examination of the values and beliefs that support the delusions of pyramid schemes. He was featured on NBC Dateline, ABC World News, and CBS 60 Minutes, the documentary film, Betting on Zero and the podcast, The Dream.He has been quoted in many newspapers around the world, including the New York Times and Wall Street Journal. His booklet, Pyramid Nation, has been translated to Chinese and used by government regulators in writing China's first laws on pyramid schemes. His booklet, "The 10 Big Lies of Multi-Level Marketing", has been translated into four languages and posted on numerous websites. His White Paper, "The Main Street Bubble", which details the extensive influence-buying of the direct selling industry was featured in a CNBC Documentary, Selling the American Dream. In 2005, he delivered a seminar to in Colombo, Sri Lanka to central banking representatives from that country as well as India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives and Nepal. Robert FitzPatrick has developed informational resources for consumers, journalists, academics and regulators including a multi-media PowerPoint presentation and a statistical analysis of the losses suffered by participants in pyramid selling schemes. He also published a widely read booklet on the landmark federal case brought against the Amway Corporation. He is a expert network member of GLG Research, and Coleman Research Group, as well as other networks of experts who are referred to clients for consultation, speaking and report writing. In this capacity, he has provided expert consultation to financial many analysts who sought information about multi-level marketing companies and pyramid and Ponzi schemes. Robert FitzPatrick co-founded and serves as president of Pyramid Scheme Alert, the first international organization to expose and prevent pyramid scheme fraud. He personally responds to hundreds of consumer and news media inquiries each year. He has served as consultant and expert witness for Attorney General or State Attorney offices in four states, the US Dept. of Justice, and in numerous cases involving distributor fraud and pyramid schemes. Robert FitzPatrick is not an investor in multi-level marketing companies. He has never owned and never plans to own stocks of multi-level marketing companies. He has never been compensated based on any stock's performance. He does not offer investment advice and he is not an attorney.

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: This article is for educational purposes only. It discusses fundamentals of the "direct selling" business model and the evolution of "multi-level marketing."

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The evolution of MLM has led to salespeople buying their own products, creating a false perception of direct selling.

Avon and Tupperware struggle to adapt to the changing market, facing significant declines in stock value.

Avon's stock has dropped from over $30 to $3, while Tupperware's has fallen over 90% in 5 years.

Some MLM companies, like Nu Skin Enterprises, have seen a recruitment surge during the pandemic as people seek financial freedom.

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Nu Skin’s Biggest Customer Base Is in China. Now It’s Accused of Spreading Covid.

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The Covid pandemic was good for the business of multilevel marketing firms like Nu Skin Enterprises, as furloughed workers tried to make ends meet by selling vitamins and skin creams from home. Salespeople swelled the bottom of Nu Skin’s marketing ranks, and its stock tripled in value from March 2020 to a June 2021 peak of $62, before sliding back to a recent $47.

Now Covid is a problem for the company in China, the nation where Nu Skin (ticker: NUS) gets its largest number of customers and more than 20% of its revenue. A...

Most MLM distributors earn little, with few achieving significant financial gains.

Title:

Content: [Street Industry Watch] In the Year of the Pandemic, many people joined the "marketing" to pull down the line, but nearly half of the revenue was used to pay "multi-level" commissions.
Photo Credit: Central News Agency
What we want you to know is
At the same time, the body product channel and product spokesperson can further bring the "offline", which is the start of expanding the business and crossing the threshold of receiving commissions.
But this threshold seems easy, but not everyone can climb, because whether it is old or new distributors, most of them only contribute to the commission of the supporting role......
In the summer of 2020, it is supposed to be the graduation season of college students and the time when social newcomers are pouring out of the cage, but I saw a youthful face at a few lively junctions in the business district of Banqiao, and started the work of “listing people ” for housing construction.
Single-handed advertising placard, carrying a backpack leaning against the road light pole, the other holding a thin, seemingly split reference book, on the hot sun, earning the card holder's hard hourly salary, and paving the way for future job hunting.
When a PT (Part Time, Part-time, Part-time, Part-time) job that was originally labeled as a middle-aged, second-degree employment face, there were many young faces, can not help but make people shiver in the heat of the day!
The virus has hit households and disrupted the job market, affecting youth employment.
We have to admit that the epidemic has disrupted the pace of new people entering society and seeking jobs. Although it is at a time when the virus has not really invaded the door, the job market has been chaotic.
According to the Ministry of Labor ’ s “Youth Employment Status ” report, there are about 280,000 college graduates in 2020, a decrease of 5.4% compared to 2019. This reflects not only the decrease in the number of children and the decrease in the number of college students, but also the explosion of life extension in 2020. If further deduction is further deducted, the number of people who can work (including military service) is a low of nearly 5 years (223,000), a decrease of 12% compared to 2019. And...
As of the end of January 2021, only 68.3%, about 152,000 people, of the post-secondary students who graduated in 2020 and are working people, joined the ranks of labor / agriculture / public insurance, which is not only a low point in the past five years, but also a decrease of 24% compared with the previous year.
In other words, there are many college graduates, after more than half a year of job search, still have not successfully entered the workplace; the pressure of job search and living economy, so that they have to make very choices in this extraordinary period.
The job market is cold, and marketing continues to expand its organization, becoming a potential employment option for new people in society.
In 2021, the virus officially "invaded the door" in May, before graduating from college in the new year.
The alert of the epidemic, so that this year's job market has a cold wind, but also the unemployment rate in July this year (4.53%), blowing up the same period of high in the past decade, recently graduated social fresh people, inevitably have to face the fear of graduation, namely unemployment.
However, there is a saying in the workplace: Despite the economic downturn, business jobs such as insurance and distribution are always recruiting.
If this is not true, we can try to turn off or turn on the query function of the above industries on the job search platform to achieve a full personal experience.
However, in 2020, the number of people registered for the personal insurance business survey (85,000) increased by 5% compared to the previous year, and the number of new entrants to the marketing business is also a million people.
This is the type of occupation that people need to earn life, some people are joining is no retreat, but some people are carrying a dream forward, but the dream is very rich, the reality is very bones, when we dream in the winter, do not forget to pragmatically understand the mode of operation of the industry.
Today, let ’ s talk about selling!
Most people's stereotypes of marketing remain in the "brainwashing" of marketing conferences, constantly inculcating that this is a "personal business," getting rid of being hired as social animals, and directly attacking the freedom of wealth, and in addition, trying to give individuals the self-esteem and ability to think independently, suggesting that "thinking for themselves, not having to discuss with others."
Perhaps, some people have experienced this process of marketing to pull members off the line, some people join, some people feel that it is a "cult", but making money, quality of life, and self-empowerment (Self-empowerment) these material and psychological skills, is indeed for most people have a certain hypnotic effect.
However, most of our understanding of marketing is just the “recruitment ” discourse, and we do not have a deep understanding of how it works.
Perhaps, when we understand the logic of the industry, we can better understand why the so-called brainwashing conference is a starting point for marketing recruitment.
Multi-level marketing requires multiple distributors as sales and marketing channels
According to the Fair Trade Commission ’ s “Multi-level Marketing Business Development Survey ”, nearly 3.5 million distributors (each“ individual ” who joined members or purchased goods is an independent distributor) of 314 marketing entities (such as Anli, Ruxin, etc.) in 2020 generated a turnover of 98 billion yuan, a slight increase of 5% over the previous year. In contrast to the population over 20 years of age (more than 19.4 million people), about one in six people join the ranks of distributors.
Since all distributors replace all types of retail channels, they not only have the function of the channel, but also have the function of marketing, that is, word-of-mouth marketing, so whether they emphasize themselves as retail (sales) orientation, product recommendation (head-pulling) orientation, or emphasis on membership, they are ultimately based on "people" and "organizational hierarchy".
And the product channel and marketing costs saved by the marketing business are converted into the commission of the distributor.
Therefore, when we contact distributors and ask them why they are involved in the marketing industry, they will almost unanimously reply, "The product is great!"
Distributors continue to pay for new members by pulling down the line, expanding the organization and expanding the commission
That being said, it ’ s one thing to see how great a product is in the domain of a distributor, and constantly adding new blood is the highest goal for continuous marketing, expanding the organization, and increasing revenue and commission revenue.
Similarly, according to the Fair Trade Association report, the number of new entrants to the market in 2020 is about 1 million, and for the past five years, the number of new entrants has remained at around 1 million each year.
And in 314 marketing businesses, 96% of the joining system is to take "conditional join", of which, the most important is "order goods" (62%), "pay a deposit or membership fee" (59%), so "conditional join" is not only contributing to the marketing business and the top level of the sales (the one who pulls you in), but also contributing to the level of the commission.
In contrast, if someone joins, someone exits. The number of MLM merchants who quit in 2020 is about 450,000, and the number of exits in each of the past five years has been around 400,000 to 500,000.
The main reason for exiting is “non-renewal of contract ” (83%), which means no longer operating, no longer consuming, and the product is no longer considered“ great ”.
However, in this process, there will always be new blood distributors who will contribute to the expansion of the organization and the commission generated after the consumption of the product.
Whether old or new distributors, most are only supporting players who contribute commissions
As has been mentioned, the distributor at the same time with the product channel and product marketing (endorsement) people, their own recognition of the product, use, and purchase, to become a new member of the body and teaching.
Of course, once you can further bring in new members, new distributors, or offline, it is the beginning of expanding your business and crossing the threshold of receiving commissions.
It seems that the threshold is easy, but not everyone can climb it.
According to a survey conducted by the Fair Trade Association, 222 of the 314 marketing businesses (about 70%), and more than 60% of its distributors will make stable orders to the company; however, only 27% of all marketing companies (about 960,000 people) receive commissions, and the average commission per person is 45,000 yuan.
Therefore, most distributors who order goods either maintain their status as distributors by buying products, or sincerely recognize and continue to use the products; and by bringing in new distributors, order sales, and achieve a commission threshold, and can earn a stable salary or even become rich in this industry, not only are rare, but also the successful cases seen in various conferences or education and training survivors. "The Beautiful Misunderstanding We Have".
It doesn ’ t matter if the product is worth the price
In addition to the threshold, this kind of personal marketing and sales channels, to achieve the "multi-level" (that is, constantly expanding the organization down the line) of the business of distribution, not only eat personal interpersonal skills, "multi-level" commission distribution will indirectly increase product prices.
According to a survey conducted by the fair society, the import cost of the pyramid scheme business accounts for only 28% of the turnover, but the commission accounts for 44% of the turnover, in other words, the real cost of selling a commodity of $100 is only $28, $44 is used as the commission of the pyramid scheme business, and the remaining $28 is the administrative expenses and profits of the pyramid scheme. Whether the essence of a product is value for money is one thing, the marketing business will compress its own profits, expand its commission expenditure, and recruit and expand the organization with a strategy of large is beautiful, so that we can find: there are so many people who have joined the ranks of marketing!
Marketing has always been a very special industry, in which a small number of people have been able to earn their fair share of commissions, and become the mainstay of business operations, but the vast majority of people are only a supporting part of this multi-level marketing structure, and by paying membership fees, buying and using products, they become a part of the source of commissions.
Back to the intention of writing this article, no matter how difficult the job search for new people in society during the epidemic, I hope that by understanding the operation mode of an industry, I can assess whether to use the marketing industry as the first job to enter the society.
Through the Fair Commission report, we have gained a profound understanding, no matter how many of these people successfully earn high commissions and create successful careers, this data is hinting at us: if this industry is the main occupation, not only requires a certain degree of interpersonal relationships and skills, there may be a period of social novices can not understand life or career experience.
Source: Ministry of Labor “Youth Employment Status ”, Fair Trading Commission“ Multi-level Marketing Business Development Survey ”
Extended reading
Editorial responsibility: Ding Zhaojiu
Editor ： Weng Shihang
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The COVID-19 pandemic has had a mixed impact on the MLM industry, with some companies seeing increased sales and others experiencing revenue declines.

The pandemic has accelerated digital transformation in MLM companies due to new norms like remote work and physical distancing.

Title:

Content: Digital Transformation: Force For Positive Business Change

COVID-19 has left long term effect on everyone, be it corporate or small businesses, everyone one and every system had to adapt

By: Hassan Imtiazi:

COVID-19 has left long term effect on everyone, be it corporate or small businesses, everyone one and every system had to adapt. Working remotely, travel restrictions & physical distancing has created unforeseen challenges for employers.

While it is too early to predict the long term outcomes and trends prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic, but in the short term the most likely scenarios suggest organizations will be operating in the new normal environment for the foreseeable future. The change in external and internal stakeholder behaviour means that companies need to emerge stronger after the pandemic. This may include starting to map out their transition to a next generation operating model best suited for the future.
Impact on the key stakeholders

These changes in external environment will have effect on three key stakeholders i.e. customers, employees, venders & partners.

Customers have already shifted their purchasing preferences to avoid physical channels, adopting more digital services, and demand more from delivery services. We have seen growth in a number of home delivery food services in UK e.g. every big superstore has now an option to reserve & pick or buy & deliver online. Amazon has already spoiled everyone with the offers like Prime giving number of incentives.

Amazon Prime membership grew to 153 million members in the U.S. as of June 2021, up 25.4% from 122 million in June 2020 according to CIRP's estimates.

The ability to find anything on Amazon made it one of the most popular e-commerce platforms. In USA almost 153 million of Amazon customers already opted for Amazon prime and they probably have the same strategy for other markets like UK. Offerings like hello fresh passing the concept of eco-friendly buying and cost effective way to spending money are proven success stories. Price comparison sites like Uswitch, money supermarket and meerkat are already giving choices as an aggregator. Especially post Brexit when UK is facing some immediate shortage of fuel and price hike in energy sector. All these economic pressures have pushed the customers to look for best deals online.

One thing which came out definitely from COVID-19 is people making new and renewed commitments to their values and goals for example, balancing time spent at work and with family. At the same time, people are weighing the risks and values in everyday decisions about where they go, who they spend time with, what they do, and what they buy.

According to McKinsey research employees with a stable, secure work experience working remotely report an increase in positive work effectiveness and wellbeing. Also, vendors and partners might be considering scaling down activities and operations, focusing on the short term, delaying unnecessary investments, and attempting to cut costs. At the same time, vendors and partners could shift to digital channels, reducing the need to visit customers on-site.

According to Hassan Imtiazi, Digital Marketing Consultant, COVID-19 has forced businesses to take paradigm shift. Many industries like travel, hospitality, entertainment and outdoor re-creation like Disney had to lay off thousands of employees. The need to find out new ways of doing business in order to make it profitable in post COVID-19 world.

Sales channels: Shifting away from Point of Sales

To adapt to changing customer buying behaviour, companies have moved from large points of sales (POS) to a reduced number of small, human-less POS, and promote digital channels. This has started already and those who have not adopted already are in the process of changing in the near future.

For example: DHL launched contactless delivery and payment through automated pickup points.

A big telecommunications group optimized its marketing efforts by reallocating budget to digital channels.

Amazon is another good example of this trend, with its Amazon Go physical stores providing uniquely innovative customer experiences i.e. how digital and physical world interacts. In Amazon Go customers scan an Amazon app when they enter the store—the only point at which a phone is required and there is no check out till. One of the stores are due to open in Blue Water London.

Product: Keep it simple to drive digital sales

One way of meeting customers’ changing demands is to simplify products to spur digital sale. Prime example is Yaqoot which is a digital platform that aims to spread happiness through SIM cards by allowing customers to download an app and to send special gifts to loved ones. This digital product was launched in Saudi Arabia and become huge success with growing userbase of digital natives. It is simple & online product which give users seamless experience.

Due to online competition and high acquisition cost for customers companies are also looking at developing pricing models that encourage consumer loyalty, rather than short term promotions. Also, cash might carry virus we have seen many retailers asking to pay only through contactless and in future e-wallet and cashless systems will become normal.

Service and support: Moving to a remote digital service

Organisations also changing their after service and support models. The digital native Russian bank, Tinkoff was the first one in 2012 to launch cloud based remote call centers outside of Russia. The bank focused on remote servicing and now has more than 14,000 remote employees who work from home and take half a million calls every day. These are not even the bank’s permanent employees. This model has saved bank cost for offices, equipment and workplaces.

We see that chatbots are very common when it comes to reaching out service support. These automations help organisations to work with cost efficiencies.

Work place: Shift to digital remote office operations

Many organizations have already shifted to remote work and have begun conducting large scale meetings. Mix models like agile ways of working are also proving to be successful where some quarterly meeting are held in person and rest via online calls.

Many companies in UK now offering flexible working days e.g. employees can opt in to work from home for 2 days and 3 days from office. Some are giving 100% remote working options especially within digital media agencies where face to face meetings are not necessary. There are enough tools available to monitor employees’ performance keeping track record of day to day work. For example: Trello app is used for project management and similar solutions are seems to be successful.

Vendors and partnerships: Shift to collaborative lean partnerships

One of the biggest challenge for supply chain executives to make sure they have smooth supply of goods. Since consumers panic and piled up stock during peak time of COVID-19 there was no mechanism to fulfil that kind of demand. In UK big supermarkets like TESCO, ASDA and Sainsbury saw severe shortage of household essential and food items as people are scared and bought these items in bulk due to future uncertainty.

Companies are now actively looking to streamline supply chains right from suppliers to merchandising to distribution to logistics to final fulfilment. Most priority is given to food, drugs and essential items to make sure isles are filled coping customers demand.

EDUC and similar companies have smoothed revenue growth in recent years by managing consultant recruitment to mitigate the pandemic's impact.

Title:

Content: Educational Development Corp.: Growth Risk Might Be Overblown

Moat Investing
1.46K Followers

Summary

  • EDUC is the exclusive US co-publisher of educational children's books produced by famous Usborne Publishing by leveraging multilevel marketing (MLM) strategy.
  • It has strong fundamentals, fair valuation, and a compelling growth story that is being ignored by the market.
  • We arrived at a target price of $12.4 to $14.6 without incorporating any future growth and expansion in operating margins.

Investment Idea

Educational Development Corporation (NASDAQ:EDUC) has an attractive value proposition, strong financials, and optionality of significant growth ahead due to structural changes caused by COVID. On top of that, the valuation is reasonable, and management has skin in the game (owns 23% of shares outstanding). For these reasons, we remain bullish.

Business Overview

EDUC is the exclusive US co-publisher of educational children's books produced in the UK by Usborne Publishing, and EDUC also exclusively publishes books through their ownership of Kane Miller.

The business operates in two segments:

Home Business Division (Usborne Books & More or "UBAM") -(95% of revenues) - This segment sells books through consultants directly to consumers using a multilevel marketing model (MLM). Consultants sell books by hosting home parties, social media, and hosting book fairs with schools and public libraries.

Publishing Division – (5% of revenues) - Sells books to bookstores, toy stores, and other retail outlets.

If you would like to get the gist of our thesis, you can watch our YouTube video below.

Value Proposition

The children's books market is very competitive and fragmented. There are more than 135 publishers of children's books in the US. EDUC is competing with Scholastic and Pearson, which have extensive resources to run marketing campaigns and are well-positioned in both online and offline distribution channels. Although EDUC has a little moat, they have some strengths to their business model that will allow long-term value creation.

They have an exclusive and long-term relationship with Usborne. Therefore, clients of the Usborne in the US must acquire their books via EDUC. Also, there is a consensus that Usborne books are high quality and among the industry's best.

Their sales are a function of the number of active sales consultants. Commissions paid to consultants are a variable cost, and they are only paid when sales are made. Although this makes SG&A grow as the top line grows, since it's not a fixed cost to the business, it allows EDUC to achieve significant operating leverage. Also, it allows them to scale quickly and have flexibility.

Direct sales strategies like multilevel marketing are commonly referred to as pyramid and Ponzi schemes. However, the table below shows that it does work sustainably and increases revenue growth over the long run despite the negative press.

Source: S&P Capital IQ

Why might EDUC be mispriced?

There are multiple factors. Firstly, it's a micro-cap. This usually means there is limited analyst coverage, and due to the stock's illiquidity, there is low institutional interest. These factors, coupled with others, leave the company under the market radar despite its business is doing well and has promising perspectives.

Second, there is negative press around the MLM business models. The MLM model deployed by EDUC is vastly different from dodgy tactics used by other players. For example, many MLM models require the seller to purchase the inventory from the company before selling. However, this reduces the risk for the company and puts extra pressure on the seller, which can be left with expensive inventory that cannot be sold or returned. In the case of EDUC, there is no requirement to hold inventory.

Third, markets might be believing that the business's tailwinds are temporary due to COVID. Amidst Covid, schools were closed, and parents were working from home; this drove home-based learning and benefited EDUC. Additionally, unemployment rates soared, and many were left looking for work. This allowed EDUC almost to double its consultant count from 33 to 60 thousand. We believe the post-pandemic work from home trend will persist, supporting their sales. Furthermore, the active consultant might not fall back to the pre-pandemic level as these roles are usually part-time work which fits nicely with the trending gig economy.

The evidence speaks louder than words

There are also some clues from the management that revenue generated amidst pandemics might be sticky.

Management increased its dividend per share from $0.20 to $0.32. A dividend increase should be seen as a signal that a business is in solid financial shape and management is confident about its future.

Management increased capital expenditures to $4.15 million from $0.64 in 2020. This expenditure was primarily associated with equipment purchases to increase daily shipping capacity. These are some early signs that management is expecting positive growth going ahead. Additionally, this also improves their margins as amidst Covid they paid a premium for extra shifts.

EDUC has increased its inventory; the inventory build-up is approximately 60% of its total assets. This has been in anticipation of an increase in the sales, as it takes a four to six-month lead-time to have a title printed and delivered to them.

Source: Koyfin

Value Investing Approach: Asset Value

To calculate the actual asset value of the company, we tried to replicate the business from scratch. Therefore, below you will find the last reported balance sheet, where we have made some adjustments.

The value of the land recorded on books was $4.1 million. They own a 40-acre complex at 5402 South 122nd East Ave, Tulsa, with 400,000 square feet of office and warehouse space. They also own a facility located at 10302 East 55th Place, Tulsa, that has 105,000 square feet of usable space. According to our channel checks with realtors, the average price per square foot of their land lies between the range of $100 to $115. To remain conservative, we took the average price square feet to be $85. Therefore, we estimate the value of its land to be $42.9 million.

They also have a network of around 55,000 active consultants. To construct such a network from scratch is both costly and time-consuming. We estimate the replication cost of this network to be around $27.5 million ($500 per consultant). This is also roughly five months of sales commission cost incurred by EDUC in the fiscal year 2021.

The rest of the items are taken on book value.

Based on the above adjustment, we arrive at the total asset value of 106.7, and the fair value per share to be $12.4

Source: Moat Investing

Value Investing Approach: Earnings Power Value

This approach allows us to value EDUC without incorporating any growth. Here, we consider the business's historical figures (last five years) to get the normalized earnings and operating margin. To calculate the sustainable earnings, we smoothed out the company revenues for the previous five years to $131 million and then calculated the firm's average operating margin (6.5%) to arrive at the sustainable Operating Income of $8.5 million.

We add back the expenses typically spent on growth, and we estimate around 4.5% of sales is spent on growth marketing, i.e., promotion, advertisement, and discounts. Hence, we add this back as this expense is not required if the firm was not aiming to achieve growth.

We assume the normalized tax rate to be 26% and the estimated cost of equity at 9%. Therefore, we estimate Earning Power Value of the operating business to be $134 million. To that, we add the non-operational cash ($1.8 million), and we subtract long-term debt (10.8); we arrive at an implied market cap of $125.6 million or $14.6 price per share, with 12.3% upside potential, without incorporating any growth or expansion in operating margins.

Source: Moat Investing

Risks to Our Investment Case

  • Stringent regulation regarding MLM companies. For instance, the requirement to treat consultants as employees. This could have implication when it comes to taxation, wages paid and welfare concerns for workers. This could, in turn, shrink the bottom line or, worse, business model tatters.
  • The most straightforward risk is consultants quitting or switching to find other employment as the US economy improves. However, within our valuation model, we have smoothed the growth of revenue in the last five years, which is a function of l consultants recruited. Even if there is some mean reversion in terms of consultants working with EDUC due to the COVID base effect, our thesis would be less impacted.
  • As highlighted earlier EDUC’s inventory level is a significant portion of its asset. Whatever reason they become unsalable (i.e., change in taste or controversy in terms of published content) could impact our valuation.
  • Oil prices have increased significantly since last year (see below). Shipping costs are amongst the most significant component of its COGS; further rise in oil prices (consequently increasing shipping cost) could make it difficult for EDUC to remain profitable.

Source: Trading Economics

Conclusion

EDUC has an attractive value proposition, strong financials, and optionality of significant growth ahead due to structural changes caused by COVID. On top of that, the valuation is reasonable, management has skin in the game (owns 23% of shares outstanding), and investors are not even paying for any future growth at current prices. For these reasons, we remain bullish.

This article was written by

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Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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