In 2019, astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) first suspected that the station might be losing air, though no immediate danger was detected at the time.

The first clear sign of an air leak happened in August 2020, when the crew noticed a steady drop in air pressure inside the station.

After careful inspections, Russian cosmonauts discovered a crack in the transition chamber of the Zvezda module, one of the ISS’s oldest parts, built in the 1980s.

This module is important because it serves as a hub for docking Progress cargo ships that bring supplies to the station.

The crew quickly patched the crack with sealant in October 2020, but air pressure continued to fall, indicating that the leak was not fully fixed.

Over time, the crew considered that there might be multiple leaks or weak points, not just one continuous leak.

In December 2021, cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov and Anton Shkaplerov identified the likely site of the leak inside the intermediate chamber of Zvezda.

They found several cracks and possible weak spots in the aging module.

Possible causes for these leaks include stress fatigue on the structure caused by long-term use, tiny impacts from micrometeoroids, or other environmental factors in space.

Using sealants, the crew applied temporary repairs, though full restoration required more supplies.

Russia planned to send repair materials aboard the regular Progress cargo ship, which arrived with important equipment needed to stop the leaks completely.

Once delivered, the Russian cosmonauts began work to restore the airtightness of the Zvezda module.

Throughout this event, the crew never faced immediate danger because the leak was slow, and the pressure loss was carefully monitored and managed.

The Russian space agency’s head, Dmitry Rogozin, stated that despite structural aging, with continued maintenance and repairs, the ISS can safely operate for at least 20 more years.

In 2019, astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) first suspected that the station might be losing air, though no immediate danger was detected at the time.

Title:

Content: Ribbon
01 January 07: 01
All news
vk.com / Cosmonaut Ivan Wagner
Moscow, January 1.
Russian cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov and Anton Shkaplerov discovered in the Zvezda module on the International Space Station, presumably the last place of air leakage.
This was reported in the press service of Roscosmos.
The first small leak was discovered on the ISS back in 2019, since then, astronauts have been monitoring the situation and eliminating cracks in the hull.
Experts know how to return the module tightness.
This will be done as soon as Progress delivers the necessary equipment to orbit.
“Russian cosmonauts Peter Dubrov and Anton Shkaplerov found a possible last place of air leakage in the intermediate chamber of the service module“ Star ” of the Russian segment of the ISS ”, — stated in the message.
Russian President Vladimir Putin previously admitted the possibility of continuing the operation of the ISS after 2024.
This is necessary to maintain high launch activity.
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The first clear sign of an air leak happened in August 2020, when the crew noticed a steady drop in air pressure inside the station.

Title:

Content: On the ISS found a place of possible air leakage in the module “Star ”
On the International Space Station, a place of possible air leakage in the Zvezda module was discovered.
The discovery of a "suspicious" place in the module compartment was reported by cosmonaut Pyotr Dubrov during negotiations with the Flight Control Center.
“There was a suspicious place.
I was engaged in photographing it under a microscope with magnifying glasses, ” the cosmonaut quoted Interfax as saying.
Recall that in August 2020, air leakage to the ISS was detected in the transition chamber of the Zvezda module.
In October last year, cosmonauts managed to find the crack and repair it with temporary means.
In August 2021, the media reported the detection of non-through cracks in the Russian module of the ISS "Zarya".
Executive Director of Roscosmos for manned programs Sergei Krikalev said then that he had no information about new cracks at the station.
At the same time, the representative of the state corporation noted that even in the presence of non-through cracks, the ISS can be operated for another 20 years.
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Is the ISS going to be a space hotel?

After careful inspections, Russian cosmonauts discovered a crack in the transition chamber of the Zvezda module, one of the ISS’s oldest parts, built in the 1980s.

Title:

Content: Ribbon
January 19 00: 04
All news
pxhere.com
Moscow, January 18.
Astronauts of the Russian segment of the International Space Station have discovered a possible place of air leakage in the chamber of the Zvezda module.
The relevant data follows from the material published by the press service of Roscosmos.
It is known that soon the nearest cargo ship "Progress" will be delivered to the ISS means of eliminating leakage.
After that, the Russian cosmonauts will immediately begin the final elimination of the cause of the leak.
"The means of eliminating non-hermeticity are planned to be delivered on the nearest Progress cargo ship, after which the cosmonauts will begin the final elimination of the leak," Roscosmos said.
Earlier, Russian cosmonauts Peter Dubrov and Anton Shkaplerov discovered a potential last place of air leakage in the Zvezda module.
Specialists will be able to restore its tightness as soon as Progress delivers the necessary equipment to the station.
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This module is important because it serves as a hub for docking Progress cargo ships that bring supplies to the station.

Title:

Content: Links for simplified access
ISS crew reports smoke and smell of burnt plastic
In the Russian module “Zvezda ” on the International space station (ISS) last night worked fire alarm, reports RIA“ Novosti ” with reference to the negotiations of the crew with the Earth, which broadcasts NASA.
Around five in the morning Moscow time, cosmonaut Oleg Novitsky told the Mission Control Center about the smoke and smell of burnt plastic.
After that, the devices showed the presence of harmful substances in the area of the medical cabinet in the Zvezda module.
French astronaut Tom Pesquet said that the smell of burnt plastic or electronics also penetrated the American segment of the ISS due to the working ventilation.
The source of the smoke and smell has not yet been identified.
The ISS included a system for removing harmful impurities.
Later, Roscosmos said that the smoke sensor and alarm system worked on the ISS “during automatic recharging of batteries. ”
Currently, all systems of the station are working normally, the department notes.
The Russian service module Zvezda docked to the ISS in July 2000.
Its main frame was built in the 1980s as the core of the Mir-2 space station, which was to replace the Mir station, but then it was decided to use it in the ISS program.
Zvezda allows a crew of three cosmonauts to stay in space, and the module can also dock with the Progress cargo ship, which once every three months delivers the necessary supplies to the station and adjusts its orbit.
In the fall of 2019, an air leak was recorded on the ISS.
A year later, the leakage rate increased fivefold.
Sequential sealing of the station compartments allowed us to establish that the cause of the leak was a crack in the Russian segment of the ISS - Zvezda.
The astronauts sealed it with a sealant, but the air leak continued.
Recently, during the survey of the International Space Station, cosmonauts found non-through cracks on the oldest module - "Dawn".
At the end of July, a meeting of the Presidium of the Scientific and Technical Council of Roscosmos took place, where it was noted that the station is breathing on incense.
The International Space Station will expire in 2024.
Earlier, Vladimir Solovyov, General Designer of the Energia Rocket and Space Corporation, predicted an avalanche of failure of numerous elements at the station after 2025.
This mainly concerns the tightness of the housing and complex computing facilities that have developed their resource, Solovyov noted.
XS
SM
MD
LG

The crew quickly patched the crack with sealant in October 2020, but air pressure continued to fall, indicating that the leak was not fully fixed.

Over time, the crew considered that there might be multiple leaks or weak points, not just one continuous leak.

Title:

Content: 22: 04, 31 December 2021
The Russian crew found the alleged site of air leakage on the International space station
It is located in the module “Star ”, said in“ Roscosmos ”.
The cosmonauts will begin repair work after the nearest Progress cargo ship will deliver the necessary funds to them, the state corporation said.
Today, during the congratulations of the Russian participants of the expedition to the ISS, the head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, spoke about the problems faced by the astronauts.
Air leakage at the station was recorded more than two years ago.
Since then, crew members have found several cracks and reported that they were able to seal them.
However, the pressure on the station continued to fall.
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In December 2021, cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov and Anton Shkaplerov identified the likely site of the leak inside the intermediate chamber of Zvezda.

Title:

Content: Possible location of air leak from the International Space Station
Space
International Space Station
Copy Link https: / / www.rt.com / s7a8
The media office of the Roscosmos Foundation announced that the Russian cosmonauts discovered in the unit "Zvezda", the possible place of air leakage from the International Space Station.
According to the information office, the materials and equipment needed to repair this place will be sent aboard the Progress cargo vehicle.
"The equipment and materials necessary to stop air leakage will be sent with the first Progress cargo vehicle launched to the International Space Station, to solve this problem once and for all," the statement said.
Astronauts Peter Dobrov and Anton Shkaplerov discovered the possible location of the air leak in December in the middle chamber of the Zvezda unit.
NASA has said it is considering isolating the Zvezda module completely if necessary.
The Roscosmos media office commented: “The concerns of our partners are unfounded and surprising. ”
Source: Novosti
Agree.
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They found several cracks and possible weak spots in the aging module.

Possible causes for these leaks include stress fatigue on the structure caused by long-term use, tiny impacts from micrometeoroids, or other environmental factors in space.

Using sealants, the crew applied temporary repairs, though full restoration required more supplies.

Russia planned to send repair materials aboard the regular Progress cargo ship, which arrived with important equipment needed to stop the leaks completely.

Once delivered, the Russian cosmonauts began work to restore the airtightness of the Zvezda module.

Throughout this event, the crew never faced immediate danger because the leak was slow, and the pressure loss was carefully monitored and managed.

Title:

Content: Recently, during a spacewalk outside the International Space Station (ISS), an astronaut ’ s mask was hit by a contaminated rope, triggering an accident.
The spacewalk was broadcast live on NASA television, with the participation of two astronauts, Oleg Kononenko and Nikolai Chub.
While their mission includes a variety of targets, the focus of this mission is to investigate a radiator leak on the Nauka module that occurred earlier this month.
Checking for coolant leaks proved to be a challenge, as the astronauts initially found no signs of leaks on the takeover line.
However, upon closer inspection, they found traces near the radiator panel joints.
Further into the spacewalk, a large amount of cooling liquid was observed on a pipe at a radiator junction.
The astronauts tried to clean up the mess with towels, but apparently they didn ’ t have enough towels.
Unfortunately, one end of the tie is immersed in the coolant and touches the astronaut ’ s mask.
The incident prompted the two men to leave the area and continue on other missions, but the mission did not proceed as planned.
The deployment of the nanosatellite for the solar sail technology test failed and a synthetic radar communication system was installed, but one of the panels suffered a problem.
After the spacewalk, the astronauts checked the spacesuit for contamination and followed the usual decontamination procedures.
In order to ensure the safety of crew members, additional filtration systems will be used inside the ISS to eliminate traces of coolant left in the air.
The leak was initially detected by cameras aboard the International Space Station, and the crew confirmed this by visually inspecting the spare radiator on the Nauka module.
The radiator was delivered on the last Space Shuttle mission in 2010, but was only installed during the Russian spacewalk this year.
Next steps to fix leaks have not yet been determined by task managers.
Clearly, both Kononenko and Chub succeeded in identifying and isolating the leak, but the scope of further work required remains uncertain.
Fortunately, the main coolant loop was not affected, ensuring the safety of the crew in this accident.
Frequently Asked Questions:
Q: How did the event happen during the spacewalk?
A: The astronaut ’ s tether was immersed in cooling fluid and accidentally hit one of the astronauts ’ masks.
Q: What missions did the astronauts perform during the spacewalk?
A: The first task is to investigate and isolate the coolant leak on the Nauka module radiator.
They also attempted to deploy a nanosatellite to test the solar sail and install a synthetic radar communication system.
Q: Are the crew in danger?
A: The main coolant circuit is not affected, and the crew is not exposed to any direct danger.
Follow safety protocols to mitigate any potential risks associated with refrigerant leaks.

The Russian space agency’s head, Dmitry Rogozin, stated that despite structural aging, with continued maintenance and repairs, the ISS can safely operate for at least 20 more years.


The International Space Station (ISS) has experienced several air leak incidents, with the most notable being the Soyuz MS-09 leak in 2018.

This incident is the primary focus for understanding the nature, detection, causes, and resolution of air leaks on the ISS for a dramatized retelling.

The 2018 Soyuz MS-09 air leak was detected on the night of August 30, 2018.

Crew members aboard the ISS noticed a drop in air pressure, triggering alarm and investigation.

The leak was traced specifically to the Soyuz MS-09 spacecraft docked to the station, which serves as both a transport and emergency escape vehicle for crew members.

The hole causing the leak was found in the living compartment of the Soyuz spacecraft, not in the reentry (lander) module, which meant it did not endanger the crew’s ability to return safely to Earth.

NASA ruled out any possibility that the astronauts aboard the ISS caused the hole intentionally or accidentally.

Initial suspicions pointed to a manufacturing defect in the Soyuz spacecraft.

Further investigations revealed tiny cracks in the inner shell of the living compartment, and evidence suggested that the hole was made before launch, on Earth, rather than occurring during flight.

Some theories speculate that a crew member or factory worker on the ground may have been attempting to seal a crack with glue that later dried out and caused failure.

The breach appeared to be pierced from inside the spacecraft, supporting the idea that this damage originated during assembly rather than through external impact or in-orbit conditions.

Following detection, Russian cosmonauts Oleg Kononenko and Sergei Prokopyev conducted an extensive external inspection during a spacewalk lasting over seven hours.

They removed thermal insulation and protective layers around the damage site on Soyuz MS-09 to gather samples and examine the hole more closely.

Their findings further confirmed the pre-launch origin of the damage.

Since the affected module was the living compartment that would be jettisoned to burn up in Earth's atmosphere during reentry, the hole did not threaten long-term ISS integrity.

To immediately halt the air leak, onboard crew members applied sealant to the hole internally, stabilizing the station’s atmosphere.

There were sensational rumors suggesting deliberate sabotage by a crew member due to psychological issues; however, these were officially denied by both NASA and Roscosmos.

Both agencies support the explanation that the leak was caused by a manufacturing flaw predating launch.

In addition to the 2018 incident, a separate leak was detected in late 2022 to early 2023 involving Soyuz MS-22, another spacecraft docked to the ISS.

This leak originated externally, caused by an impact to the cooling system's external loop, likely from micrometeorites or orbital debris.

Although this coolant leak did not directly affect the station’s internal atmosphere, it posed other risks and led to the cancellation of Russian spacewalks.

To mitigate risk, plans were made to send a replacement Soyuz MS-23 spacecraft to ensure the crew could return safely in an emergency, highlighting ongoing challenges in maintaining spacecraft integrity in orbit.

In summary, the 2018 Soyuz MS-09 air leak was detected quickly after a pressure drop was observed and traced to a small hole in the spacecraft’s living compartment.

It was caused by a manufacturing defect that likely originated from an error during assembly on Earth.

The leak was repaired internally with sealant, and a detailed external inspection by cosmonauts confirmed the damage's origin and extent.

The incident did not jeopardize crew safety or mission success but underscored the importance of thorough quality control and rapid response for spaceflight safety.

The subsequent Soyuz MS-22 coolant leak in 2022-2023, while unrelated, illustrates that external impacts remain a significant threat to spacecraft in orbit.

These events provide a compelling timeline and tension points for dramatization, including the initial alarm, the investigation and spacewalk inspection, and the international cooperation to resolve the crisis.

They also allow exploration of themes like human error versus external hazards, the psychological and technical pressures on astronauts, and the resilience of crews working under extreme conditions in space.

The International Space Station (ISS) has experienced several air leak incidents, with the most notable being the Soyuz MS-09 leak in 2018.

Title:

Content: • August 15, 2021, 10: 43
Rogozin rejected the guilt of the American in drilling holes in the “Union ”
The head of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin said that NASA astronaut Serena Augnon-Chancellor no one is accused of drilling a hole in the skin of the Soyuz MS-09 spacecraft.
He wrote about it on his Twitter.
Rogozin responded to the post of assistant head of NASA Katie Leaders, who wrote that accusations against NASA astronauts, including Aunyon-Chancellor, of involvement in drilling holes in the Soyuz are not credible.
The head of Roscosmos said that no one had ever accused the astronaut.
Rogozin also dismissed the theory that the hole in the ship could have been drilled by someone on Earth when the Soyuz MS-09 was being prepared for launch, without telling anyone about it.
The head of Roscosmos said that a thorough investigation conducted by the Russian side excluded the possibility of “terrestrial ” origin of the hole.
Earlier, the media, citing a source in the rocket and space industry, reported that the hole in the Soyuz could be drilled in the conditions of weightlessness by someone who was not familiar with the device of the ship.
At the same time, it was noted that the Russian cosmonauts were tested on a polygraph, and their American colleagues refused it.
The hole in the “Soyuz MS-09 ” was found in 2018, when the ISS recorded an air leak.

This incident is the primary focus for understanding the nature, detection, causes, and resolution of air leaks on the ISS for a dramatized retelling.

Title:

Content: Cosmonauts' spacewalk canceled at space station due to leak

NASA and Russia's space agency canceled a spacewalk by two Russian cosmonauts just as they were preparing to exit the International Space Station late Wednesday because of an apparent coolant leak from an attached space capsule.

NASA's Johnson Space Center said Sergey Prokopyev and Dmitri Petelin were not in danger, nor were other astronauts on the space station. The cosmonauts had donned spacesuits and depressurized an airlock when the leak appeared on a live video feed.

It was the second time the Russian cosmonauts have had to cancel the spacewalk. As in the first attempt on Nov. 25, the pair had planned to move a radiator from one module attached to the space station to another. In that first attempt, a problem arose with coolant pumps on the cosmonauts' Russian-built Orlan spacesuits.

In Wednesday's incident, ground specialists saw a stream of fluid and particles on a live video feed from space, along with a pressure drop on instruments, emanating from the Soyuz MS-22 capsule that had carried Prokopyev and Petelin, along with NASA astronaut Frank Rubio, to the International Space Station in September. The leak was continuing from the Soyuz capsule, docked to one of the space station's modules, hours after its discovery.

The cosmonauts restored pressure to the airlock, removed their spacesuits and re-entered the space station, NASA reported.

Russia's space agency and NASA planned to investigate the Soyuz leak to determine how the capsule might have been affected. It wasn't immediately clear what effect the leak would have on the crew's mission.

Four other astronauts and one other cosmonaut are on board the space station.

The 2018 Soyuz MS-09 air leak was detected on the night of August 30, 2018.

Title:

Content: NASA has excluded the involvement of its astronauts in the hole in the “Union ”
American astronauts are not involved in the appearance of a hole in the household compartment docked to the ISS “Soyuz MS-09 ” in 2018.
This was stated by the assistant head of NASA for manned flights Katie Leeds, commenting on the publication of TASS, in which, with reference to the source, it is reported about the likely drilling of a hole in the ship by astronaut Serina Augnon-Chancellor.
"NASA crew members carry out their missions professionally and honestly.
I support Serina and her professional behavior, and I don't find this accusation credible, "Leaders said.
On the eve of TASS published an anonymous interview with an unnamed top manager of “Roscosmos ”, in which the Agency interlocutor said that Aunyon-Chancellor, being the only woman in the crew, experienced“ acute psychological crisis ”.
The source of the publication explained that, wanting to speed up its return to Earth in connection with the emergency situation, the American drilled a hole that threatened to depressurize the station.
As one of the confirmations of his version, the Agency interlocutor indicated that NASA astronauts refused to pass the test on the “lie detector ”.
According to the source, the hole was drilled in zero gravity.
The crew discovered an air leak on the International Space Station (ISS) on the night of August 30, 2018, which was caused by a hole in the Soyuz MS-09 spacecraft.
It was located in the household compartment, not in the lander, so it did not threaten the return of the crew to Earth.
General Director of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin reported that the commission of the rocket and space Corporation (RSC) Energia ruled out the version of damage to the skin of the Soyuz MS-09 spacecraft as a result of industrial defects.
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Crew members aboard the ISS noticed a drop in air pressure, triggering alarm and investigation.

Title:

Content: Roscosmos reported damage to the skin of the Soyuz MS-22
On the Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft, docked to the International Space Station (ISS), there was damage to the outer skin of the instrumentation compartment, the press service of Roscosmos reported.
“The crew reported the operation of the alarm system of the ship ’ s diagnostic system, indicating a drop in pressure in the cooling system.
The visual inspection confirmed the leak, after which it was decided to interrupt the planned work on extra-ship activities by the crew members of the Russian segment of the ISS Sergei Prokopyev and Dmitry Petelin, ” the statement said.
Astronaut Anna Kikina photographed and videographed the outer surface of the ship, experts on Earth began to study the images.
All the systems of the Soyuz and the ISS are operating normally, the crew is not threatened, Roscosmos stressed.
Because of the problem today again failed spacewalk cosmonauts Prokopiev and Petelin, who had to prepare the radiator to carry the manipulator ERA from the module "Dawn" and install it on the "Science".
These works Russian cosmonauts were originally to be held on November 25, but then the spacewalk was canceled due to the discovered abnormal operation of the pumps in the cooling system of one of the spacesuits.
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The leak was traced specifically to the Soyuz MS-09 spacecraft docked to the station, which serves as both a transport and emergency escape vehicle for crew members.

The hole causing the leak was found in the living compartment of the Soyuz spacecraft, not in the reentry (lander) module, which meant it did not endanger the crew’s ability to return safely to Earth.

NASA ruled out any possibility that the astronauts aboard the ISS caused the hole intentionally or accidentally.

Initial suspicions pointed to a manufacturing defect in the Soyuz spacecraft.

Title:

Content: Soyuz manufacturing defect causes air leak at International Space Station
Kazakhstan News Agency / Astana / September 3 - According to the Russian satellite network reported on the 3rd, Russian rocket space sources said that the manufacturing defect is the cause of the "Soyuz MS-09" spacecraft leak.
There was an air leak on the International Space Station on August 30.
The astronauts examined all the compartments and found tiny cracks in the Soyuz MS-09 spacecraft.
It is located in the living module, not in the return module, so it will not affect the return of the spacecraft to Earth.
It was previously thought that the fissure was the result of a miniature meteorite hitting the spacecraft.
The next night, Russian cosmonauts used special sealant to fill the hole.
The source said: "The cause of the crack in the inner shell of the living module has been identified and it has appeared on Earth.
The person responsible for the fault was identified. "
According to another source, the crew likely sealed the leak with special glue after realizing the mistake, so it was not detected during the pre-launch check and the spacecraft ’ s first two months of orbital flight.
"However, the glue later dried out and was squeezed out, revealing cracks," he said.
The Russian space agency said a special committee would investigate and determine the cause of the accident.
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Further investigations revealed tiny cracks in the inner shell of the living compartment, and evidence suggested that the hole was made before launch, on Earth, rather than occurring during flight.

Some theories speculate that a crew member or factory worker on the ground may have been attempting to seal a crack with glue that later dried out and caused failure.

The breach appeared to be pierced from inside the spacecraft, supporting the idea that this damage originated during assembly rather than through external impact or in-orbit conditions.

Following detection, Russian cosmonauts Oleg Kononenko and Sergei Prokopyev conducted an extensive external inspection during a spacewalk lasting over seven hours.

Title:

Content: Moscow 24
Science
December 12, 04: 05
Russian cosmonauts took “smears ” from the area of   the hole in the“ Union ”
Photo: TASS / Mikhail Japaridze
Russian cosmonauts Oleg Kononenko and Sergei Prokopyev completed the survey of the Soyuz MS-09 spacecraft and returned to the ISS.
They spent 7 hours 45 minutes overboard – 1 hour 14 minutes more than planned.
It was the 213th exit in the history of the ISS.
The world record for working in outer space is 8 hours 56 minutes and belongs to American astronauts James Voss and Susan Helms.
At 22: 16 MSK Kononenko and Prokopiev with the help of two manipulators "Arrow" reached the ship "Soyuz MS-09", in which a hole was previously found.
On the ship, cosmonauts using a cutter and metal scissors opened the screen-vacuum thermal insulation (EVTI).
Then they cut and with the help of clamping mites bent the micrometeorite protection.
At the same time, the astronauts did not find the point at which the drill could rest if the hole was made from the inside of the ship.
Kononenko and Prokopyev took "smears" from the area of   the hole and samples of the sealant with which it was clogged.
After the completion of the work, the cosmonauts were given the command to “return home ”, RIA Novosti reports.
The samples should be delivered to Earth by Sergei Prokopyev, who will return on December 20 on the Soyuz MS-09.
The onboard compartment of the ship, in which the hole is found, will burn in the atmosphere during landing.
On August 30, an air leak occurred in the Soyuz spacecraft, which docked to the ISS on June 8.
The crew of the station carried out repairs and sealed the hole.
The Commission of the Rocket and Space Corporation Energia (the manufacturer of the spacecraft) ruled out the version of the production defect.
The newspaper Kommersant reported that the hole could have been deliberately drilled by American astronauts in order to bring one of their sick colleagues to Earth as soon as possible.
Later, the head of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin said that the sealant on the outside of the Soyuz MS-09 spacecraft indicates that the hole was made on Earth.
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They removed thermal insulation and protective layers around the damage site on Soyuz MS-09 to gather samples and examine the hole more closely.

Their findings further confirmed the pre-launch origin of the damage.

Title:

Content: Do you believe in coincidences, comrade? —

Russia claims an “external impact” damaged its Progress spacecraft

Two Russian spacecraft in two months have been struck this way. Supposedly.

Russia's main space corporation, Roscosmos, provided updates on Tuesday about its two spacecraft that recently suffered failures to their cooling systems while attached to the International Space Station.

Although there were several items of note in these updates—which are not readily available to Western audiences due to Russian Internet restrictions—perhaps the most surprising claim is that both the Soyuz MS-22 and Progress MS-21 spacecraft were damaged near their heat radiators by "external impacts." This seems highly improbable, to say the least.

For those who haven't been paying attention to the Russian roulette in space in recent months, here's a summary of what has happened since mid-December:

  • On December 14, 2022, as two cosmonauts were preparing to conduct a spacewalk outside the space station, the Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft docked nearby began to leak uncontrollably from its external cooling loop. This Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft had been due to bring cosmonauts Sergey Prokopyev and Dmitri Petelin, as well as NASA's Frank Rubio, back to Earth in March.
  • On January 11, 2023, Roscosmos confirmed that a micrometeorite had struck the external cooling loop of the spacecraft and deemed it unsafe to fly home. Officials from Roscosmos and NASA said a replacement Soyuz spacecraft would launch to and autonomously dock with the station in February. The crew that would have flown in the damaged Soyuz MS-22 vehicle, including Rubio, will instead fly home in this Soyuz MS-23 spacecraft later in 2023.
  • On February 11, 2023, the Progress MS-21 supply ship attached to the International Space Station lost pressure in its external cooling system. Once again, all of the coolant on board a Russian spacecraft leaked into space due to a rupture. This vehicle, which had been docked to the ISS since October, has detached. Before it reentered Earth's atmosphere, the vehicle rotated itself to allow cosmonauts to photograph the damaged area.

Tuesday's updates provide some new information. In one of them, Roscosmos confirmed that the uncrewed Soyuz MS-23 spacecraft would launch to the space station on Friday at 00:24 UTC from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. It will dock autonomously with the space station about two days later. Prokopyev, Petelin, and Rubio will fly home aboard this Soyuz in September. The Russian space corporation also said it does not plan any upgrades to the thermal control systems on its Soyuz and Progress vehicles, as this would be costly and increase the mass of the spacecraft.

In a second update, Roscosmos draws preliminary conclusions about the failure of the Progress MS-21 ship. "Based on a preliminary assessment of the situation with Progress MS-21 ...  the cargo ship experienced an external impact. This conclusion was made based on photos that revealed changes on the exterior of the vehicle." An external impact likely means either a micrometeorite or small fragment of orbital debris must have struck the Progress spacecraft.

As part of the update, Roscosmos released a photograph of the impact site on the Progress vehicle. When this image is compared to a photograph of the Soyuz MS-22 vehicle, there appears to be little commonality in the damaged area:

Although micrometeoroids and specks of orbital debris have periodically damaged the space station and visiting vehicles during more than two decades of operation, impacts have never resulted in "serious consequences" like with the Soyuz and Progress vehicles in the last two months. So what are the odds that two Russian vehicles would be struck in the same general area in two months, with both of these strikes disabling the spacecraft's thermal cooling systems? The odds seem incredibly low.

Moreover, if there are so many micrometeorites intersecting with the space station's orbit, why is the outpost not riddled with holes? NASA does not presently have a sensor or other means of recording hits to the ISS unless they cause notable damage. But given that the Soyuz and Progress vehicles only make up 1 percent or less of the station's footprint in space, the ISS would likely be incurring significant damage if there was a cloud of micrometeorites or debris.

Needless to say, all of this is pretty mysterious.

Channel Ars Technica

Since the affected module was the living compartment that would be jettisoned to burn up in Earth's atmosphere during reentry, the hole did not threaten long-term ISS integrity.

To immediately halt the air leak, onboard crew members applied sealant to the hole internally, stabilizing the station’s atmosphere.

There were sensational rumors suggesting deliberate sabotage by a crew member due to psychological issues; however, these were officially denied by both NASA and Roscosmos.

Both agencies support the explanation that the leak was caused by a manufacturing flaw predating launch.

In addition to the 2018 incident, a separate leak was detected in late 2022 to early 2023 involving Soyuz MS-22, another spacecraft docked to the ISS.

This leak originated externally, caused by an impact to the cooling system's external loop, likely from micrometeorites or orbital debris.

Title:

Content: Russian spacecraft began an uncontrolled leak on Wednesday night
Russia ’ s spacewalk was canceled at the last minute on Wednesday night when a spacecraft attached to the International Space Station detected an unexpectedly large leak.
Cosmonauts Sergei Prokopyev and Dmitry Petlin were in spacesuits with a sealed airlock when air traffic controllers told them to prepare to investigate a leak in the Soyuz spacecraft.
The spacewalk was subsequently canceled shortly before 22: 00 ET (03: 00 UTC on Thursday).
The leak appears to have originated from an external cooling circuit located at the back of the Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft.
Public relations officer Rob Navias, commenting on the spacewalk for NASA television, described the spacecraft as "quite dramatic."
In the video of coolant leakage, you can see that particles are constantly pouring out of the Soyuz, which is a pretty cool spectacle.
None of the space station crew were in danger, including Prokopyev and Petlin, their fellow astronaut Anna Kikina; NASA astronauts Frank Rubio, Nicole Mann and Josh Cassada; and Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata.
The leak occurred outside the station, not inside the orbiting lab.
However, the leak raises questions about the viability of the Soyuz spacecraft, the return flight to Earth by Prokopiev, Betlin and Frank Rubio from NASA.
They went to the space station again in September aboard the Soyuz spacecraft and are scheduled to return to Earth next spring.
Three hours later, Monday night, the leak was still going on and was not going to diminish.
Soyuz is a very tough spacecraft, so it is likely that this will not affect its ability to separate from the space station and return to Earth.
However, if Russian engineers — and engineers from NASA, given Rubio will be on board — determine that the problem exists, a new Soyuz will need to be delivered to the station.
Soyuz ships can be launched and docked independently.
However, this would mean that until the new spacecraft arrives, the three crew members will not have a rescue ship.
Golovin sowed chaos in the victory of Russia over Finland at the European Championships
The other four astronauts arrived aboard the station on the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft in October.
This ship cannot accommodate seven people to return to Earth.
Given the duration of the spill, NASA likely also had concerns about the impact of all this ammonia on the surface of the space station and other docked vehicles.
Most of the ammonia is likely to evaporate from the surface of the device over time, but that will certainly complicate operations as the U.S. space agency works on its own spacewalk on Dec. 19 to install new solar panels.

Although this coolant leak did not directly affect the station’s internal atmosphere, it posed other risks and led to the cancellation of Russian spacewalks.

To mitigate risk, plans were made to send a replacement Soyuz MS-23 spacecraft to ensure the crew could return safely in an emergency, highlighting ongoing challenges in maintaining spacecraft integrity in orbit.

In summary, the 2018 Soyuz MS-09 air leak was detected quickly after a pressure drop was observed and traced to a small hole in the spacecraft’s living compartment.

It was caused by a manufacturing defect that likely originated from an error during assembly on Earth.

The leak was repaired internally with sealant, and a detailed external inspection by cosmonauts confirmed the damage's origin and extent.

The incident did not jeopardize crew safety or mission success but underscored the importance of thorough quality control and rapid response for spaceflight safety.

The subsequent Soyuz MS-22 coolant leak in 2022-2023, while unrelated, illustrates that external impacts remain a significant threat to spacecraft in orbit.

These events provide a compelling timeline and tension points for dramatization, including the initial alarm, the investigation and spacewalk inspection, and the international cooperation to resolve the crisis.

They also allow exploration of themes like human error versus external hazards, the psychological and technical pressures on astronauts, and the resilience of crews working under extreme conditions in space.


In recent years, the multi-level marketing (MLM) business model has faced significant challenges marked by a general decline in market performance and popularity.

Iconic companies traditionally associated with MLM or direct selling, such as Avon and Tupperware, have undergone long-term downturns.

Avon, which shifted toward MLM-style recruiting around 2000, experienced continuous revenue drops, stock value decline, and eventually restructured by splitting and divesting parts of its business.

North American Avon continues operating a classic MLM model, but typical earnings for representatives remain low.

Similarly, Tupperware's stock has plummeted over 90% in five years, accompanied by warnings of possible bankruptcy.

These cases illustrate broader struggles within the MLM sector and underscore differences between modern MLMs and traditional direct selling companies .

Major MLM corporations such as Amway, Herbalife, Nuskin, USANA Health Sciences, Primerica, and Medifast have also witnessed considerable stock value declines recently, ranging from 13% to 64% year-to-date.

A key factor behind this downturn is a shift in the revenue model from customer sales to salespeople purchasing inventory and recruiting new members, creating pyramid-like structures where the majority lose money while a small elite benefits.

This unsustainable economic pattern has attracted increased regulatory scrutiny and diminished consumer trust, contributing to the market's negative trend .

During the COVID-19 pandemic, however, some MLM companies experienced growth due to increased participation driven by remote work needs and unemployment.

For example, Educational Development Corporation (EDUC), specializing in educational children's books via MLM, saw its number of sales consultants nearly double.

Unlike many traditional MLMs, EDUC does not require inventory purchases, reducing financial risk for participants and aligning with gig economy trends.

In recent years, the multi-level marketing (MLM) business model has faced significant challenges marked by a general decline in market performance and popularity.

Title:

Content: 'Direct Selling' - Avon, Tupperware - Is Extinct

Nov. 18, 2022 11:25 AM ETHLF, MED, NTCO, NUS, PRI, TUP, USNA3 Comments
Robert FitzPatrick
394 Followers

Summary

  • Direct Selling became obsolete generations ago. So how is it that millions today get recruited for "income opportunity" in "direct selling" and billions are traded on "direct selling" stocks?
  • Avon and Tupperware are cited by "multi-level marketing," or MLM, promoters as "proof" that MLM, e.g., Amway, Herbalife, is "direct selling."
  • Usable data on actual income and churn rates of MLM "direct sellers," market saturation, and retail sales to actual customers are not provided.
  • In fact, Avon and Tupperware for years have been walking dinosaurs, still trying to do "person-to-person" sales to end-users with commodity products, while MLMs hype "unlimited" income.
  • The shrunken and devolved state of Avon and Tupperware today reveals that direct selling is extinct. MLM is not, and never was, direct selling.

It is generally accepted that "direct selling" was killed off generations ago by mass merchandising, big box stores, mail-order and then the internet, among other societal changes. The "Fuller Brush man" is long gone. No one's at home. No one wants or needs or has time for a "personal" salesperson. Everything's in stores or online. And, even when "direct selling" still lived, no one ever went into that tough line of work thinking they would get rich from it.

Yet, each year, millions are recruited, and pay thousands, for the "opportunity" to work as "direct sellers," with promises and expectations of "unlimited" income. The number involved today is many, many times greater than ever worked in that "extinct" field decades ago. Billions are being traded on Wall Street for shares of "direct selling" companies. How can this be?

In my book, Ponzinomics, the Untold Story of Multi-Level Marketing, I document the death of "direct selling" and the 1945 invention of "multi-level marketing," or MLM. I describe how "MLM" falsely assumed direct selling's revered old identity. I trace MLM from its Adam, a little California-based company called "Nutrilite," to today's "industry" led by Amway, Herbalife (HLF) down 64% YTD, Nuskin (NUS) down 31%, USANA Health Sciences (USNA) down 49%, Primerica, Inc. (PRI) down 13%, and Medifast (MED) down 45%. MLM's financial solicitations for consumers to become "direct sellers" have reached into – and led to losses for – virtually every household in America.

In the newly invented "MLM," the main source of revenue shifted from end-user customers to the salespeople themselves who are incentivized to "be their own customer" by buying their own products. Obviously, no one makes money purchasing their own inventory, but MLM offered a unique reason to do so – "unlimited" income potential.

No More Need to Knock on Doors

All MLM "direct sellers" can potentially gain "unlimited" income by recruiting an "endless" chain of other "direct sellers." No need to pound the pavement and get rudely rejected at front doors any more. Each "direct seller" on the chain has to meet a quota to "qualify" for future rewards from their recruits who, in turn, are their "own customers" and recruiters too, ad infinitum. The chain can grow without continuous personal effort. The qualifying quota can usually be met by just making a personal monthly purchase of inventory. "Commissions" on all these transactions, all the way down to the "last ones in," flow up the chain. In the MLM pay plan, most of the total commissions go to the top 1%. So, all new "direct sellers" try mightily to recruit (and buy) their way to those top ranks. Of course, only a tiny few can ever be at the top.

Some people argued this is a pyramid recruiting scheme, inherently unfair and deceptive, and a counterfeit of direct selling. In the design and the pay plan, bottom ranks – the vast majority – will inevitably lose. They said constantly adding salespeople in any area destroys profitable retail selling potential, if any exists to start with. They cited data on 90-99% loss rates and huge churn rates among new "recruits" and asked, where are the retail "customers"?

While offering no data on retail customers or salespeople losses or market saturation, MLM promoters offered "proof" that MLM is direct selling by pointing to two long-established and respected direct selling companies in their ranks, Avon and Tupperware (TUP). Both companies were members of the Direct Selling Association, DSA, and both were "direct selling" icons, Avon for its "ladies" and Tupperware for its "parties." To any pyramid scheme accusations, MLM promoters indignantly countered: "Are you calling Avon and Tupperware pyramid schemes?"

Walking Dinosaurs

The truth for both companies is very different from the MLM-spin. Avon and Tupperware used to have differentiated products and real consumer demand. Their salespeople made money from their own retail sales. But moving into the 21st Century, Avon and Tupperware became walking dinosaurs, vestiges of the extinct era of "direct selling." They were still trying to base their businesses on their historical brands and on person-to-person retail sales to real customers, as direct selling companies always used to do.

Despite MLM's citing Avon and Tupperware, and thereby bestowing legitimacy on the "MLM" members of the Direct Selling Association, deep differences between those icons of the old era and MLM burst into public view in 2013-14. The two companies publicly quit the Direct Selling Association, charging ethics violations and DSA-member connections to pyramid schemes.

Avon's Long Good-Bye

Avon had been a true direct seller for decades before MLM was invented. But as the door-to-door model faded, Avon began a long decline. In 2000, Avon began shifting its focus to "incentivizing" salespeople to recruit more salespeople and getting them to buy inventory, MLM-style. In 2009, during the Great Recession, Avon ran its most expensive ad in history, on television during the Super Bowl. The ad never mentioned any Avon products! It only solicited "salespeople." Still, global revenue dropped continuously over the next 10 years. Avon stock value fell from over $30 to just over $3.

Finally, Avon split off its faltering North American business and sold it to the Korean company, LG Household & Health Care. Avon claimed to have 250,000 sales representatives in North America. The remaining global business was later sold to the Brazilian MLM, Natura (NTCO) down 50% YTD, which also owns the retailer, Body Shop. Though Avon global was much larger, Avon shareholders traded 3 shares of Avon for just one in Natura.

The Korean-owned segment of Avon in North America is now classic MLM, selling the proverbial MLM "income opportunity" along with "health" supplements, make-up, jewelry, clothing, scented candles, even toothpaste.

On the Canadian Avon website, Avon promotes the "income opportunity," urging prospects in large bold black type: "Think big. Sell Avon part-time, full-time, you decide how much! It’s your business, your way!"

A disclosure (legally required in Canada, but not in the USA) appears midway down a long webpage in tiny, barely visible gray lettering: "The 2020 earnings of a typical Avon Leadership Representative was between $0 and $2,620 in commissions and bonuses." That's $0 to $50 a week, before subtracting all costs! And the "disclosure" does not break out how much of that tiny return comes from personal sales or the "downline."

Avon quietly rejoined the Direct Selling Association. The Brazilian company, Natura, which took over Avon's global business in 2020, has lost over 60% of its stock value in the last year.

Tupperware on the Brink

Tupperware was one of the first "party plan" companies, which are technically a small subset of MLM. They employ an "endless" recruiting chain, but are more rooted in retail sales transacted at "parties." Tupperware used to have a popular brand with innovative, differentiated products. But, as true direct selling began to disappear, Tupperware went into decline. It added MLM-type "health and beauty" commodities to bolster recruiting appeal but then deleted them. This year, it began also selling its products in Target department stores. Its kitchen-related goods are generally not distinct from other brands. A 10-months "Income disclosure" for Canada (not published in the USA) showed that half the "party planners" were classified "inactive," earning less than $30 for the period on average. 94% of the "active" ones reportedly received about $12 a week on average, before expenses.

In the last 5 years, the stock value of Tupperware has dropped over 90%. Its latest financials warned investors the company may violate loan agreements, setting off speculation Tupperware might declare bankruptcy.

The shrunken and devolved state of Avon and Tupperware, the most famous brand-icons of "direct selling," makes citing them as a defense of "multi-level marketing" as extinct as their old business model.

This article was written by

394 Followers
Robert L. FitzPatrick is the author of the new book, Ponzinomics, the Untold Story of Multi-Level Marketing (2020),the first comprehensive history and analysis of the "MLM" phenomenon, addressing its political influence, propaganda techniques and use of cult persuasion. FitzPatrick is an expert in examining and revealing deception and fraud in Ponzi schemes, pyramid schemes and bogus home-based businesses. He served as expert or consultant in more than 30 court cases involving pyramid schemes and multi-level marketing. He is co-author of False Profits (1997), an examination of the values and beliefs that support the delusions of pyramid schemes. He was featured on NBC Dateline, ABC World News, and CBS 60 Minutes, the documentary film, Betting on Zero and the podcast, The Dream.He has been quoted in many newspapers around the world, including the New York Times and Wall Street Journal. His booklet, Pyramid Nation, has been translated to Chinese and used by government regulators in writing China's first laws on pyramid schemes. His booklet, "The 10 Big Lies of Multi-Level Marketing", has been translated into four languages and posted on numerous websites. His White Paper, "The Main Street Bubble", which details the extensive influence-buying of the direct selling industry was featured in a CNBC Documentary, Selling the American Dream. In 2005, he delivered a seminar to in Colombo, Sri Lanka to central banking representatives from that country as well as India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives and Nepal. Robert FitzPatrick has developed informational resources for consumers, journalists, academics and regulators including a multi-media PowerPoint presentation and a statistical analysis of the losses suffered by participants in pyramid selling schemes. He also published a widely read booklet on the landmark federal case brought against the Amway Corporation. He is a expert network member of GLG Research, and Coleman Research Group, as well as other networks of experts who are referred to clients for consultation, speaking and report writing. In this capacity, he has provided expert consultation to financial many analysts who sought information about multi-level marketing companies and pyramid and Ponzi schemes. Robert FitzPatrick co-founded and serves as president of Pyramid Scheme Alert, the first international organization to expose and prevent pyramid scheme fraud. He personally responds to hundreds of consumer and news media inquiries each year. He has served as consultant and expert witness for Attorney General or State Attorney offices in four states, the US Dept. of Justice, and in numerous cases involving distributor fraud and pyramid schemes. Robert FitzPatrick is not an investor in multi-level marketing companies. He has never owned and never plans to own stocks of multi-level marketing companies. He has never been compensated based on any stock's performance. He does not offer investment advice and he is not an attorney.

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: This article is for educational purposes only. It discusses fundamentals of the "direct selling" business model and the evolution of "multi-level marketing."

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Iconic companies traditionally associated with MLM or direct selling, such as Avon and Tupperware, have undergone long-term downturns.

Avon, which shifted toward MLM-style recruiting around 2000, experienced continuous revenue drops, stock value decline, and eventually restructured by splitting and divesting parts of its business.

North American Avon continues operating a classic MLM model, but typical earnings for representatives remain low.

Title:

Content: Terrible Things People Do For Money: What You NEED To Learn

0

You can laugh if you want. But, growing up, I was into professional wrestling. It was something that my dad was a fan of. So, naturally, this is what we did to bond.

Anyway, there was this wrestler named Ted DiBiase whose gimmick was “The Million Dollar” man. And, he had an amazing catchphrase; “Everybody’s got a price.”

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Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

This Hedge Fund Thinks Nintendo Is The Next Apple

Apple's influence over the stock market and tech world appears to be waning, at least in terms of mindshare. While it's true that Apple stock has soared alongside other tech favorites over the last couple of years, tech news sites are no longer overflowing with daily headlines about the iPhone. Apple Stock Is Surging, And Read More

For some of us. That actually might be true.

Questionable Acts People Would Do For Money

A survey of 1,000 conducted by OnePoll.com found that 6% of people would commit murder for $1 billion. Treason, armed robbery, mugging with a weapon, or assisting in suicide are some of the crimes committed by one in ten people.

What about a million bucks? In addition to credit card fraud, one in ten would smuggle drugs over the border or even star in an amateur pornographic video. In exchange for $100,000,000, a quarter of people would steal a bike, forge a signature, lie to police and donate sperm or eggs without their partner’s knowledge. Meanwhile, a demented one in ten would kick a kitten or puppy. And, that same figure would take performance-enhancing drugs to win a sporting event or beat up a stranger.

For $100,000? 25% of people would steal a street sign. It’s also enough for one in five people to forge a signature or take from a restaurant or hotel. One in ten say they would enter into a sham marriage, perform a sexual act on a stranger, falsify tax returns, or snatch a purse for the same amount.

In exchange for $10,000, one in five will steal a street sign, shoplift or flash a stranger. On the other hand, one out of ten people would lie under oath, steal a bike or spend counterfeit cash for the same price.

What would people do for a thousand bucks? 15% of people were willing to shoplift or bet on a fixed sporting event.

Why Do Good People Do Bad Things?

Some people may not have much in terms of a moral compass. I would actually think that most of us are the opposite. Committing a heinous crime not only cheapens life. What’s more, there are additional costs that far outweigh the monetary value.

For serious crimes, you have legal expenses, as well as the probability of going to prison. Also, even if you aren’t charged with a crime, that money can be seized.

And, let’s be real here. Would really trust someone to offer you a large sum of money to commit a crime? There’s a good chance it’s a scam or set it up, such as the fake website Rent-A-Hitman. Even if the offer was real, that’s definitely someone you do not want to associate with.

Still, even decent and law-abiding citizens may do bad things.

Researchers from the University of Utah and Harvard found that even the prospect of money encourages unethical behavior.

“Were were interested in why good people would do bad behavior,” Kristin Smith-Crowe, a management professor and co-author of the study told CNBC.

“We certainly found that the love of money is corrupting and just the mere exposure to it makes people do bad things,” Smith-Crowe said.

“The study didn’t ask people to do horrible acts, there were more mundane like stealing office supplies,” Smith-Crowe added. For example, taking home a ream of paper from work when your printer at home is empty.

The Worst Ways to Make Money

So, with all that being said, that got me thinking. What are the worst ways to make money? And, no. I’m not talking about unspeakable acts like murder or hurting an animal. My focus is on seemingly legit, yet risky, illegal, dangerous, and unprofitable ways to make some extra cash.

Taking online surveys.

There is no shortage of online surveys. With some surveys, you’re asked your opinion on current events or to perform an act of kindness. Most often, however, surveys want your feedback on a product or service.

However, whenever you see a survey that promises decent money in hardly any time, buyer beware. While these surveys do pay, the cost is minimal. I’m taking from a couple of cents to a couple of dollars. Is it really worth your time to make that little amount of money?

A better option would be picking up a second job, even if it’s a minimum wage job you do on the weekend. If that’s not an option, consider a focus group or qualitative research study if you want a well-paying survey.

I should also add that online surveys aren’t the worst idea for certain demographics. For example, a stay-at-parent could do these surveys while their kid(s) are napping.

Medical testing and selling bodily fluids.

“Paid medical testing is neither a scam nor a low-reward opportunity; it’s possible to make actual money if you devote yourself to being a full-time pincushion for science,” writes Jon Skindzier for Ask Men. “No, this idea comes with its own unique set of drawbacks like vomiting, chills, seizure, death — stuff like that.”

“Six subjects in London, for example, suffered organ damage and life-threatening complications while testing an arthritis treatment in 2006,” he adds. “The real question isn’t whether or not you can make money this way; it’s how much bodily harm you’re willing to risk in the process.”

Stying in the “ick” zone, this is also true of selling bodily fluids. Processes are long, complex, and time-consuming, but the pay is low.

It’s possible for women to sell their eggs too. In addition to taking up time, this procedure can also be rather painful since fertility shots are often necessary. It is true that donations are not a dependable way of making money, and very often they are restricted by time constraints.

Multilevel marketing companies (MLMs).

If you haven’t personally been invited, I guarantee someone you know has been. Invited to what? Those “parties” where a friend or acquaintance is selling essential oils, pet care products, jewelry, children’s books, etc.

It turns out, that this is a MLM program.

As the FTC notes, “Most people who join legitimate MLMs make little or no money. Some of them lose money. In some cases, people believe they’ve joined a legitimate MLM, but it turns out to be an illegal pyramid scheme that steals everything they invest and leaves them deeply in debt.”

The FTC has also reported that 99% of people who take part in multiple-level marketing lose money. Why? Because MLM companies require their members to purchase products in advance with the hope of reselling them at a profit.

While there are some legit MLMs, Avon springs to mind, if you aren’t a salesperson or have the upfront costs you might want to consider alternatives. Freelancing, affiliate marketing, or drop shipping might be some viable options that are better suited to your budget and/or skills.

Using click-bait to sell links.

The majority of bloggers earn their living from advertising, affiliate sales, and more. Click-bait links, those that lead nowhere, to the wrong site, or make your browser a mess, aren’t sold or bought by them. Overall, there is little money to be made from these bottom-feeding methods.

How can you make money from a blog then? Partner with trusted affiliate programs such as ClickBank, ShareASale, or Commission. From there, you can set up ads with Google AdSense.

Those fake links will eventually get noticed by your readers, and they will stop reading your articles.

Sign spinning.

We’ve all seen them on the sidewalks holding signs advertising particular businesses. No matter the weather, at least one is always trying to attract customers. Because you are required to stand all day long, the job is extremely tiring as well.

Additionally, the pay is usually low. And, the practice has been criticized for causing distractions among drivers.

If you’re looking for part-time or a side hustle, you might want to explore more fulfilling options. If you’re a dog person, then consider dog walking or sitting. Do you like cruising around town? Maybe deliver food or rideshare.

Day trading.

Unless you have a lot of experience in investing, day trading in the stock market is highly risky. As a new investor, you should stick with mutual funds until you gain more experience.

While it isn’t as exciting or profitable, at least you’ll be able to make money as you learn the ropes.

Selling pirated materials.

Many pirated electronic books or digital copies of Hollywood blockbusters can be found and downloaded online either for free or for a small fee. Sound appealing, right? After all, it’s cheaper than going to the theater or buying an original copy. And, these are major corporations that can take the hit.

Well, it’s not as harmless you may have assumed. In 2022, it’s expected that the movie and TV industry will lose $51.6 billion to online piracy. Additionally, piracy can land you in trouble with local, state, and national authorities as well as your Internet provider.

Online gambling.

I know a couple of people who boast about the money they made gambling — either in-person or online. My first question? “Yeah, but how much did you lose to win that money?”

Trying to make money with gambling of any kind is always a bad move. In addition, online gambling is more accessible 24/7, making it easier to become addicted to it than in-person gambling. If not treated, you can literally lose everything.

If you have a gambling addiction, please got professional help. And, even if you don’t, look for other alternatives to make money where the societal and financial cost isn’t as high.

Work-from-home scams.

Online money-making offers that seem too good to be true probably are. The scammer capitalizes on your desperation to obtain your personal information so that they can steal your identity or use the money to set up a job for you. In cases where something seems fishy, such as poor spelling or grammar in an advertisement or on a website or a request for you to send money, you should be cautious.

That’s not to say that there aren’t legit work-from-home opportunities. In fact, here are 12 work-from-home jobs that will help you earn a million dollars in less than 10 years.

Recycling.

Once again, we are seeing an extremely time-consuming effort for very little result. In addition, lots of recycling must be done before profits can be made. It is usually necessary to obtain recyclables from others before profits can be made. It simply does not make sense to move and clean substantial quantities of items unless you have the storage space and means to accomplish this.

I can personally attest to this. I thought years ago that instead of just recycling my cans, why not make some money off of them. For months I crushed and stored cans until I had several big bags. I took them to the scrap yard and got like $20. It wasn’t even worth the gas going back and forth.

Final Words of Advice

You have to know which opportunities are worthwhile and which ones aren’t if you’re looking to start a new side hustle or just make money online. You can find better alternatives to all these bad ideas on our list of 101 passive business and income ideas.

Article by John Rampton, Due

About the Author

John Rampton is an entrepreneur and connector. When he was 23 years old while attending the University of Utah he was hurt in a construction accident. His leg was snapped in half. He was told by 13 doctors he would never walk again. Over the next 12 months he had several surgeries, stem cell injections and learned how to walk again. During this time he studied and mastered how to make money work for you, not against you. He has since taught thousands through books, courses and written over 5000 articles online about finance, entrepreneurship and productivity. He has been recognized as the Top Online Influencers in the World by Entrepreneur Magazine, Finance Expert by Time and Annuity Expert by Nasdaq. He is the Founder and CEO of Due.

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Similarly, Tupperware's stock has plummeted over 90% in five years, accompanied by warnings of possible bankruptcy.

These cases illustrate broader struggles within the MLM sector and underscore differences between modern MLMs and traditional direct selling companies .

Major MLM corporations such as Amway, Herbalife, Nuskin, USANA Health Sciences, Primerica, and Medifast have also witnessed considerable stock value declines recently, ranging from 13% to 64% year-to-date.

A key factor behind this downturn is a shift in the revenue model from customer sales to salespeople purchasing inventory and recruiting new members, creating pyramid-like structures where the majority lose money while a small elite benefits.

This unsustainable economic pattern has attracted increased regulatory scrutiny and diminished consumer trust, contributing to the market's negative trend .

During the COVID-19 pandemic, however, some MLM companies experienced growth due to increased participation driven by remote work needs and unemployment.

Title:

Content: Owing to high demand, we are looking to expand to new locations – Mandhira Kapur, SMPL

By: |
August 23, 2021 3:05 PM

The aftermarket automotive space is a huge segment and the scope of expansion grows with more cars being manufactured. Also, the shift to electric vehicles is opening up the market for more manufacturers. One such company is Sona Mandhira Private Limited, and Express Mobility got in touch with the MD, Mandhira Kapur, to discuss expansion plans, investments, and more.

The automotive aftermarket space is massive. The market consists of numerous items — suspension, steering, and just about any component that makes an automobile. The Indian automotive market took a severe blow last year, and the market is slowly steadying itself. The Pandemic affected the aftermarket space as well.

With the Indian government pushing carmakers and consumers to opt for electric cars, aftermarket component manufacturers have to follow suit to adapt. Since the EV market is in its nascent stage, the aftermarket space is open to competition, and one such company competing to be on top is Sona Mandhira Private Limited (SMPL). Formerly known as Mandira Marketing Private Limited, SMPL was established in 2012. SMPL makes various aftermarket parts for passenger vehicles and is based in Gurugram, Haryana.

Express Mobility reached out to Mandhira Kapur, the Managing Director of Sona Mandhira Private Limited, to know more about the company’s plans and how a woman gives the predominantly male-dominated market, tough competition.

Express Mobility: What kind of investment is the company looking to make or attract in the near future?

Mandhira Kapur: In the next 5 years, we plan to invest an amount of minimum INR 100 crores in developing a new product range and setting up new units. We plan to enter into new segments like electric vehicles, commercial vehicles, 2/3 wheelers and set up an R&D centre.

EM: What plans does the company have for the two-wheeler segment?

MK: We are launching our 2 wheeler spares brand Sona Mandhira MJNK. Under the brand, we will initially be trading then eventually start our manufacturing in due course of time.

EM: Apart from plans to enter the two-wheeler segment, what other plans does SMPL have?

MK: Apart from two-wheelers, we also plan to enter into commercial vehicles, electric vehicles, and 2/3 wheelers in the export market with strategic joint ventures and strategic tie-ups.

EM: Are there plans for expansion? Is the company thinking of setting up manufacturing plants in any other location in India or abroad?

MK: Yes, owing to the high demand for SMPL products we are looking to expand to new locations and this year we have already started a new unit in Manesar.

EM: Given that most manufacturers are transitioning towards Electric Vehicles, does SMPL have plans to manufacture anything to cater to EVs in the future?

MK: Our products are standard and can be used in electric vehicles and commercial vehicles. We also plan to enter into a strategic tie-up with technology and electric vehicles in the future. While we are still evaluating the market segment, we cannot rule out the possibility of the same.

EM: What kind of quality standards/benchmarks does the company follow while manufacturing components?

MK: We are an ISO and IATF certified company. Our team ensures that the products are reliable and of superior quality by adhering to best practices. The checking process involves multiple steps to ensure the product is genuine and durable. We ensure focused quality control across all the processes. The processes are viewed in the light of how a step might be done faster and better to improve the overall efficiency. The Quality Management System (QMS) uses different tools for continual improvement, defect prevention, and reduction of variation and waste in the supply chain.

EM: Do you supply parts to OEMs?

MK: No, we are purely an aftermarket automotive brand. SMPL operates in a B2B format in the aftermarket automotive segment. The firm works through a distribution network catering to tier 1, 2 and 3 cities.

EM: Since SMPL exports components, has the pandemic affected manufacturing or supply, and to what extent?

MK: Phase I saw a mass exodus of labour and eventually created a pent up demand. Also, change in personal mobility behaviour is now driving the demand. The lockdown 2.O led by the demand for quality products has forced Sona Mandhira to move beyond the existing geographies and cater to a wider audience.

EM: How are you able to make a mark in the man dominated industry and accept challenges?

MK: From the initial days, the automotive sector has been thought of as a masculine place. The environment created in the workplace is more oriented towards masculine choices. Although there are women who are engineers and managers, yet they are not making it to the top to leadership roles in the automobile industry. We believe that the automobile sector is a gender-neutral product.

So, men and women should work together in the design and manufacturing of automobiles because it adds different dimensions to the product, which will be widely accepted and purchased by consumers. This helps generate revenue and increase the profitability of the organisation. But certainly, there is a road ahead for women to engage, enrich and prosper in the automobile industry. We have changed that perception by encouraging women to start playing an increasingly prominent role.

Understanding the importance of retaining and expanding SMPL’s current hold in the aftermarket space, Mandhira Kapur is currently making transformative initiatives to emerge as a leader in its chosen field. The brand expanded its product portfolio within the existing segments. Starting with only steering systems, today, SMPL offers products in multiple categories such as steering, suspension, brake parts, filters, shock absorbers, amongst other categories.

Over the years, Mandhira Kapur has attempted to retain the same working culture, approach and attitude in business like her father, who has remained her biggest inspiration. Her goal remains to fulfil her father’s vision for the company and group. Mandhira has tried to make a strategic shift in the work culture from traditional methods to a dynamic and millennial approach.

A strong proponent of open-door philosophy, Mandhira aims to ensure that everyone is as approachable as possible. “We take time for people; we ask questions, listen, and make ourselves accessible. This creates personal connections with our employees that we believe is critical to our organisational success and the happiness of our workforce,” says Kapur.

Speaking on the safekeeping of the employees during the pandemic, Mandhira Kapur says, “Keeping employee safety foremost, standard operating procedures were updated. We are running operations in strict compliance with guidelines issued by relevant authorities across all our plants. A limited number of employees are attending duties adhering to all safety protocols, distancing norms, and hygiene standards. We have started vaccination drives in our office and plants by collaborating with local health authorities.”

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For example, Educational Development Corporation (EDUC), specializing in educational children's books via MLM, saw its number of sales consultants nearly double.

Title:

Content: Educational Development Corp.: Growth Risk Might Be Overblown

Moat Investing
1.46K Followers

Summary

  • EDUC is the exclusive US co-publisher of educational children's books produced by famous Usborne Publishing by leveraging multilevel marketing (MLM) strategy.
  • It has strong fundamentals, fair valuation, and a compelling growth story that is being ignored by the market.
  • We arrived at a target price of $12.4 to $14.6 without incorporating any future growth and expansion in operating margins.

Investment Idea

Educational Development Corporation (NASDAQ:EDUC) has an attractive value proposition, strong financials, and optionality of significant growth ahead due to structural changes caused by COVID. On top of that, the valuation is reasonable, and management has skin in the game (owns 23% of shares outstanding). For these reasons, we remain bullish.

Business Overview

EDUC is the exclusive US co-publisher of educational children's books produced in the UK by Usborne Publishing, and EDUC also exclusively publishes books through their ownership of Kane Miller.

The business operates in two segments:

Home Business Division (Usborne Books & More or "UBAM") -(95% of revenues) - This segment sells books through consultants directly to consumers using a multilevel marketing model (MLM). Consultants sell books by hosting home parties, social media, and hosting book fairs with schools and public libraries.

Publishing Division – (5% of revenues) - Sells books to bookstores, toy stores, and other retail outlets.

If you would like to get the gist of our thesis, you can watch our YouTube video below.

Value Proposition

The children's books market is very competitive and fragmented. There are more than 135 publishers of children's books in the US. EDUC is competing with Scholastic and Pearson, which have extensive resources to run marketing campaigns and are well-positioned in both online and offline distribution channels. Although EDUC has a little moat, they have some strengths to their business model that will allow long-term value creation.

They have an exclusive and long-term relationship with Usborne. Therefore, clients of the Usborne in the US must acquire their books via EDUC. Also, there is a consensus that Usborne books are high quality and among the industry's best.

Their sales are a function of the number of active sales consultants. Commissions paid to consultants are a variable cost, and they are only paid when sales are made. Although this makes SG&A grow as the top line grows, since it's not a fixed cost to the business, it allows EDUC to achieve significant operating leverage. Also, it allows them to scale quickly and have flexibility.

Direct sales strategies like multilevel marketing are commonly referred to as pyramid and Ponzi schemes. However, the table below shows that it does work sustainably and increases revenue growth over the long run despite the negative press.

Source: S&P Capital IQ

Why might EDUC be mispriced?

There are multiple factors. Firstly, it's a micro-cap. This usually means there is limited analyst coverage, and due to the stock's illiquidity, there is low institutional interest. These factors, coupled with others, leave the company under the market radar despite its business is doing well and has promising perspectives.

Second, there is negative press around the MLM business models. The MLM model deployed by EDUC is vastly different from dodgy tactics used by other players. For example, many MLM models require the seller to purchase the inventory from the company before selling. However, this reduces the risk for the company and puts extra pressure on the seller, which can be left with expensive inventory that cannot be sold or returned. In the case of EDUC, there is no requirement to hold inventory.

Third, markets might be believing that the business's tailwinds are temporary due to COVID. Amidst Covid, schools were closed, and parents were working from home; this drove home-based learning and benefited EDUC. Additionally, unemployment rates soared, and many were left looking for work. This allowed EDUC almost to double its consultant count from 33 to 60 thousand. We believe the post-pandemic work from home trend will persist, supporting their sales. Furthermore, the active consultant might not fall back to the pre-pandemic level as these roles are usually part-time work which fits nicely with the trending gig economy.

The evidence speaks louder than words

There are also some clues from the management that revenue generated amidst pandemics might be sticky.

Management increased its dividend per share from $0.20 to $0.32. A dividend increase should be seen as a signal that a business is in solid financial shape and management is confident about its future.

Management increased capital expenditures to $4.15 million from $0.64 in 2020. This expenditure was primarily associated with equipment purchases to increase daily shipping capacity. These are some early signs that management is expecting positive growth going ahead. Additionally, this also improves their margins as amidst Covid they paid a premium for extra shifts.

EDUC has increased its inventory; the inventory build-up is approximately 60% of its total assets. This has been in anticipation of an increase in the sales, as it takes a four to six-month lead-time to have a title printed and delivered to them.

Source: Koyfin

Value Investing Approach: Asset Value

To calculate the actual asset value of the company, we tried to replicate the business from scratch. Therefore, below you will find the last reported balance sheet, where we have made some adjustments.

The value of the land recorded on books was $4.1 million. They own a 40-acre complex at 5402 South 122nd East Ave, Tulsa, with 400,000 square feet of office and warehouse space. They also own a facility located at 10302 East 55th Place, Tulsa, that has 105,000 square feet of usable space. According to our channel checks with realtors, the average price per square foot of their land lies between the range of $100 to $115. To remain conservative, we took the average price square feet to be $85. Therefore, we estimate the value of its land to be $42.9 million.

They also have a network of around 55,000 active consultants. To construct such a network from scratch is both costly and time-consuming. We estimate the replication cost of this network to be around $27.5 million ($500 per consultant). This is also roughly five months of sales commission cost incurred by EDUC in the fiscal year 2021.

The rest of the items are taken on book value.

Based on the above adjustment, we arrive at the total asset value of 106.7, and the fair value per share to be $12.4

Source: Moat Investing

Value Investing Approach: Earnings Power Value

This approach allows us to value EDUC without incorporating any growth. Here, we consider the business's historical figures (last five years) to get the normalized earnings and operating margin. To calculate the sustainable earnings, we smoothed out the company revenues for the previous five years to $131 million and then calculated the firm's average operating margin (6.5%) to arrive at the sustainable Operating Income of $8.5 million.

We add back the expenses typically spent on growth, and we estimate around 4.5% of sales is spent on growth marketing, i.e., promotion, advertisement, and discounts. Hence, we add this back as this expense is not required if the firm was not aiming to achieve growth.

We assume the normalized tax rate to be 26% and the estimated cost of equity at 9%. Therefore, we estimate Earning Power Value of the operating business to be $134 million. To that, we add the non-operational cash ($1.8 million), and we subtract long-term debt (10.8); we arrive at an implied market cap of $125.6 million or $14.6 price per share, with 12.3% upside potential, without incorporating any growth or expansion in operating margins.

Source: Moat Investing

Risks to Our Investment Case

  • Stringent regulation regarding MLM companies. For instance, the requirement to treat consultants as employees. This could have implication when it comes to taxation, wages paid and welfare concerns for workers. This could, in turn, shrink the bottom line or, worse, business model tatters.
  • The most straightforward risk is consultants quitting or switching to find other employment as the US economy improves. However, within our valuation model, we have smoothed the growth of revenue in the last five years, which is a function of l consultants recruited. Even if there is some mean reversion in terms of consultants working with EDUC due to the COVID base effect, our thesis would be less impacted.
  • As highlighted earlier EDUC’s inventory level is a significant portion of its asset. Whatever reason they become unsalable (i.e., change in taste or controversy in terms of published content) could impact our valuation.
  • Oil prices have increased significantly since last year (see below). Shipping costs are amongst the most significant component of its COGS; further rise in oil prices (consequently increasing shipping cost) could make it difficult for EDUC to remain profitable.

Source: Trading Economics

Conclusion

EDUC has an attractive value proposition, strong financials, and optionality of significant growth ahead due to structural changes caused by COVID. On top of that, the valuation is reasonable, management has skin in the game (owns 23% of shares outstanding), and investors are not even paying for any future growth at current prices. For these reasons, we remain bullish.

This article was written by

1.46K Followers
We are a group of experienced investors that like to dig deeper into stocks to find growth stories at a reasonable price with strong economic moats. We also aim to conduct high-quality analysis by deep diving into valuations, key business drivers, risk/reward, and different future scenarios.
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Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Unlike many traditional MLMs, EDUC does not require inventory purchases, reducing financial risk for participants and aligning with gig economy trends.