Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin, the India-Russia relationship has maintained its foundational strategic character while evolving to address emerging geopolitical realities, especially the intensifying rivalry between India and China.

Historically, India and the Soviet Union/Russia shared a deep bond centered on defense cooperation and geopolitical support, with Russia supplying the majority of India's military hardware, including aircraft, tanks, and missile systems like the S-400.

Modi's era continues this legacy, underscored by high-level engagements such as Putin's visits to India and the establishment of new mechanisms like the "2+2" defense and foreign minister dialogues, which have reinforced political and defense ties.

In December 2023, Modi and Putin signed 28 agreements covering trade, energy, science, technology, and military cooperation, solidifying this special and privileged strategic partnership.

Strategic defense collaboration remains robust with projects like joint production of AK-203 rifles in India, ongoing delivery of the S-400 missile system despite U.S. sanctions threats, and cooperation on advanced technologies such as rocket engine manufacturing and satellite navigation.

Russia remains India’s top arms supplier, even as India diversifies its defense procurement and strengthens ties with the U.S. through the Quad and Indo-Pacific framework to counterbalance Chinese assertiveness.

India’s growing rivalry with China influences its pragmatic balancing act in foreign policy.

While India deepens its engagement with Western democracies, it deliberately maintains a strategic autonomy policy by nurturing its historic relationship with Russia, recognizing Moscow’s role as a key defense partner and diplomatic ally, particularly in the United Nations Security Council.

Russia, despite its increasingly close ties with China, respects India’s strategic autonomy and continues to view India as an essential partner in balancing China’s regional power.

In regional multilateral platforms such as BRICS, SCO, and the G20, India has resisted Western attempts to isolate Russia, advocating for a multipolar world order and critiquing unilateral economic sanctions.

Amid increasing Sino-Russian cooperation, India leverages its ties with both Russia and the U.S. strategically, ensuring defense supplies and energy needs while navigating geopolitical tensions.

For instance, following the 2020 China-India border clashes and amid volatile Russia-NATO relations over Ukraine, India has refrained from condemning Russia, instead purchasing discounted Russian oil to stabilize its energy security and continuing defense deals despite sanctions risks.

Concurrently, India participates actively in the Quad and Indo-Pacific initiatives to counterbalance China and maintain a diversified set of partnerships.

On economic front, bilateral trade between India and Russia has risen to record highs, exceeding $50 billion recently, with India expanding investments in Russia’s oil and gas sectors.

Both countries have agreed to enhance connectivity projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor, Chennai-Vladivostok shipping link, and development of the Northern Sea Route.

These projects, touted as transparent and politically neutral alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, aim to boost trade and strategic cooperation across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean region, where Russia’s naval presence complements India’s security concerns vis-à-vis China and the U.S..

The complexities of India-Russia relations under Modi and Putin reflect India’s broader strategic autonomy – balancing its historic defense and energy partnership with Russia against deepening ties with the U.S. and growing concerns over China.

Putin has publicly praised Modi’s firm stance on India’s national interests and independence from external pressures.

India’s role in multilateral forums often supports Russia diplomatically, while remaining cautious to avoid direct confrontation with Western powers.

The evolving global power dynamics, especially the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s regional ambitions, continue to pose challenges and opportunities for this relationship, requiring India to maintain a delicate geopolitical balance.

In summary, under Modi and Putin, India–Russia ties remain a cornerstone of India’s foreign policy, characterized by enduring defense cooperation, economic engagement, and strategic alignment that accommodates India’s rivalry with China by sustaining a multipolar strategic posture.

Despite growing Russia-China rapprochement and Western pressure, India ensures continued partnership with Russia to secure defense and energy needs, while simultaneously advancing relationships with the U.S. and like-minded democracies to counterbalance China’s rise in Asia-Pacific and safeguard its regional security interests.

What is missing from available sources is a detailed analysis of internal Indian strategic debates and the longer-term trajectory of the India-Russia relationship considering evolving China-Russia ties, beyond public diplomatic statements and agreements.

Further insights into policy decision-making and military modernization interdependencies would deepen understanding of the relationship's evolution under current leadership.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin, the India-Russia relationship has maintained its foundational strategic character while evolving to address emerging geopolitical realities, especially the intensifying rivalry between India and China.

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Modi Attended the G20 Summit and Moxie Interaction Became an Indicator of China-India Relations
2022 / 11 / 14 16: 55 （ Updated on 11 / 14 17: 06 ）
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Indian Prime Minister Modi left for Indonesia today to attend the Group of 20 (G20) summit, in addition to taking over as the next G20 presidency, whether to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping is also the focus of outside attention, is considered to be an indicator of whether India-China relations break the ice.
The 17th G20 summit is scheduled to be held in Bali on November 15-16, and Narendra Modi said in a speech on the morning of his departure that he will discuss with G20 leaders on issues such as global economic recovery, food and energy security, environmental protection, health and digital transformation.
In addition, Indonesia will hand over the presidency of the G20 to India at the closing ceremony of the G20 summit, and Modi will invite G20 leaders to India for the next summit in September next year.
New Delhi recently announced the Lotus theme of the G20 logo, the new slogan: One Earth, One Family One Future (One Earth One Family One Future), hoping to promote world unity in the face of increased competition from powerful countries and the smoke of Ukraine.
India ’ s foreign ministry said Modi would attend 20 events over 45 hours, including a leadership-level meeting on food and energy security, digital transformation and health, as well as a number of bilateral meetings with other leaders.
India, a member of the Quad, has long regarded Russia as a military and energy security partner, and is keen to maintain a balance between the United States and Russia, especially in the face of border clashes between China and India and signs of good relations between the United States and Pakistan.
New Delhi has to buy weapons from Moscow that could deter China and, if necessary, mediate between Moscow, and India ’ s feud with Pakistan, which has rocked New Delhi ’ s trust in Washington, including the recent approval of a $450 million maintenance package for Pakistan ’ s F-16 fighter jets.
On the other hand, Xi Jinping will also attend the G20 summit, and the interaction between Modi and Xi Jinping, including whether to convene a bilateral meeting, is a focus of attention for Indian observers.
If it happens, it will be the first time since the border conflict between India and China broke out in June 2020.
Although the two met at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan in September this year, the interaction was cold and there was no bilateral meeting.
In May 2020, Indian and Chinese border guards exchanged accusations that the other side violated the border agreement in Ladakh, soldiers of the two sides in June in the Galwan Valley (Galwan Valley), there were mutual casualties, after the two armies in multiple confrontation, bilateral tension has continued to this day.
Whether Modi and Xi will hold a bilateral meeting is seen as an indicator of whether relations between the two countries are breaking the ice.
Other observers believe that Taiwan must pay attention to the development of the Sino-Indian border dispute, because Beijing may use the border dispute as a bargaining chip in exchange for India's adherence to the "one China policy" and its non-intervention in the Taiwan Strait situation.
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Australian Prime Minister meets Xi Jinping for the first time in five years

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

What do Putin and Modi officially characterize Russia/ India relationship as?

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

Historically, India and the Soviet Union/Russia shared a deep bond centered on defense cooperation and geopolitical support, with Russia supplying the majority of India's military hardware, including aircraft, tanks, and missile systems like the S-400.

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Content: Moscow and New Delhi agree on joint production of Russian weapons in India - Libyan newspaper Al-Marsad
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Russia and India have strategic relations in various fields, including in the military-technical sphere, with New Delhi being one of the leading buyers of Russian arms and military equipment.
Dmitry Shogayev, Chairman of the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, revealed in an interview the details of the agreements and understandings reached today with the Indian side during the meeting of the Inter-State Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation, which was chaired by the Ministers of Defence of the two countries.
The Russian official described today ’ s meeting as important and prominent because it was held personally in the shadow of the Corona pandemic, where he said: “Today ’ s meeting is an important event because the committee ’ s meeting was held in presence after the meeting was canceled last year because of the Corona pandemic. ”
On the issues discussed, Shogayev pointed out that the issues of cooperation in the military-technical field and the results of the work of 2020 and 2021 were discussed.
Prospects for cooperation for the future were also discussed, where important directions were identified, and a landmark document was signed, namely, the “Program for Military and Technical Cooperation until 2031 ′ ′, i.e., plans for cooperation for the next ten years, which includes the supply of weapons and military equipment and the joint production of some types in India. ”
He added that an agreement was signed today for the manufacture of the modern Russian AK-203 rifle in India, talking about the manufacture of 600 thousand rifles of this type in a joint factory in order to meet the Indian demand for this type of weapon.
He pointed out that India is one of Russia ’ s important strategic partners, as the volume of military orders with this country exceeds the level of $14 billion, and important agreements are being implemented, including the supply of the air defense system “S-400 ”, where the first batch of this system is planned to be delivered by the end of the year.
On the impact of US sanctions imposed on Moscow on military cooperation between Russia and India, the official stressed that the dollar currency is abandoned in contracts and the use of national currencies, pointing to the existence of understandings between Moscow and New Delhi in this regard.
Moscow and New Delhi have strategic ties, with Russia providing India with more than $65 billion worth of military equipment and weapons over the course of military-technical cooperation.
At present, the Indian Navy is 80% equipped with Russian equipment, while the Air Force is 70%, according to expert estimates.
In October 2018, Moscow and New Delhi signed a contract for the supply of five sets of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems worth more than $5 billion.
Notable agreements signed between the two countries include an agreement to supply four Russian 11356 frigates and a large range of Igla portable anti-aircraft missile systems.
Source: RT

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

Modi's era continues this legacy, underscored by high-level engagements such as Putin's visits to India and the establishment of new mechanisms like the "2+2" defense and foreign minister dialogues, which have reinforced political and defense ties.

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'India great power and a time-tested friend', says Russia's Vladimir Putin

India, Russia hold 21st summit, and first 2+2 dialogue; sign 28 agreements

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indian government | India-Russia ties | Narendra Modi

Ajai Shukla  |  New Delhi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi receives Russian President Vladimir Putin at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, on Monday (Photo: PTI)

New Delhi and Moscow on Monday issued to the world a high-visibility reminder about their “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership”, as Prime Minister and Russian President held the 21st India-Russia Summit, an annual ritual missed only in 2020 due to the pandemic.

Leading into the 21st summit meeting, India and Russia held their first-ever 2 + 2 Ministerial Dialogue, in which External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh together held strategic discussions with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

“We perceive India as a great power, a friendly nation and a time-tested friend. The relations between our countries are growing and I am looking into the future,” Putin said in his initial comments.

Putin also expressed concern over the developments in Afghanistan and said India and Russia will continue to coordinate on major challenges facing the region.

Modi said Putin’s second visit abroad during the Covid-19 pandemic reflected his personal commitment to the and that the special and privileged strategic partnership between the two sides was getting stronger. In the last few decades, the world witnessed many fundamental changes and different kinds of geopolitical equations and variables, but the friendship of India and Russia remained constant, Modi said. “Your visit to India is a reflection of your commitment to ties with India,” the PM said.

Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla said 28 agreements were concluded between India and Russia after Modi-Putin meet. After the 2+2 meeting, Jaishankar tweeted: “A productive exchange of perspectives on cross-cutting and inter-related issues. Will be reporting it to the Annual Summit later today.”

Earlier on Monday, there was a meeting of the apex body that governs defence relations between the two: The Indo-Russian Inter-Governmental Commission on Military Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-MTC), co-chaired by the two defence ministers, Singh and Shoigu.

India’s military uses Russian weaponry extensively, such as Sukhoi-30MKI fighter aircraft, T-90S tanks and BMP infantry combat vehicles, Talwar-class frigates, and Kilo-class submarines. The two sides have jointly produced the highly regarded BrahMos cruise missile system.

During the 17th annual summit, the two countries concluded deals on India’s procurement of five units of the S-400 air defence systems for an estimated ~37,000 crore, constructing Talwar-class frigates under Project 1135.6, and a shareholders’ agreement on a joint venture (JV) to manufacture Kamov-226T helicopters in India.

The S400 is regarded as the world’s premier long-range missile system, with the ability to shoot down enemy aircraft at ranges up to 400 kilometres. During the confrontation over the last two years between the Chinese and Indian armies in Ladakh, China deployed the S400 along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

On March 3, 2019, in Amethi, Modi announced another JV —Indo-Russian Rifles — that would manufacture 750,000 AK-203 assault rifles in Korwa under the “Make in India” programme for an estimated $687 million. Russia is also competing for a ~40,000-crore deal for building six submarines in India under Project 75I, and a ~50,000-60,000 crore agreement to manufacture 114 fighter aircraft in India.

To ensure that Russian defence equipment was not hampered by any shortfall in maintenance or spare parts, the two sides agreed during the 20th Annual Summit in Vladivostok in September 2019 to cooperate in producing spare parts for Russian/Soviet military equipment.

The India-Russia defence partnership is being tested by Washington, especially through the piece of legislation the US Congress passed in 2017, titled CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act). This provides for US sanctions on countries that have significant defence or intelligence relations with Russia, Iran, or North Korea. India’s purchase of the S400 missile system is regarded as a potential trigger for Washington to impose sanctions.

While the US Congress has created a “CAATSA waiver” for close partners such as India, the US president is required to determine whether to exercise that waiver. So far, President Joe Biden has not stated a preference.

India, which faces a growing threat from China, is determined to buy the S400 from Russia. Asked whether New Delhi would bow to CAATSA pressure, India’s foreign ministry spokesperson said last week: “India and the US have a special global strategic partnership. And we also have a very special and privileged strategic partnership with Russia. And as you’re all aware, we pursue an independent foreign policy. This applies to our defence acquisitions, and supplies which are and will continue to be guided by our security interest.”

New Delhi and Moscow have identified trade and economic relations as a priority area. Modi and Putin have set a bilateral investment target of $50 billion and a bilateral trade target of $30 billion by 2025. (With inputs from PTI)

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First Published: Tue, December 07 2021. 01:24 IST
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In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

What formal frameworks do India and Russia cooperate within?

defense ministers' meetings
foreign ministers' meetings

In December 2023, Modi and Putin signed 28 agreements covering trade, energy, science, technology, and military cooperation, solidifying this special and privileged strategic partnership.

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India aimed to reshape regional power balance in 2021 amid border row with China

India shifted gears in rejuvenating strategic ties with its major partners like the US and Russia and focused on drumming up global support for its distinct strategy in the Indo-Pacific.

Published: 31st December 2021 03:34 PM  |   Last Updated: 31st December 2021 03:34 PM   |  A+A-

By PTI

NEW DELHI: In a year bookended by the coronavirus pandemic, India displayed a firm resolve to expand its strategic influence in reshaping the regional power balance in the face of an increasingly complex geopolitical entanglement of confronting an aggressive China and dealing with the aftermath of the Taliban's swift takeover of power in Kabul.

Distrustful of China's politics and policies, India shifted gears in rejuvenating strategic ties with its major partners like the US and Russia and focused on drumming up global support for its distinct strategy in the Indo-Pacific to check Beijing's increasing muscle-flexing in the region.

As the bitter border standoff in eastern Ladakh lingered on for over 18 months despite multiple rounds of diplomatic and military talks, India made it amply clear to China that the two countries cannot simultaneously have a "tense, high friction" border and great relations at the same time in all other spheres.

India was also among the leading voices globally that focused on rallying support of democratic nations to put in place resilient supply chains and create trusted technologies, a move largely seen as aimed at minimising reliance on China.

Another key foreign policy challenge for India was complexities arising out of the situation after the Taliban's lightning military triumph and capture of power in Kabul on August 15 following the departure of the US troops from Afghanistan.

Caught by surprise by the speed of the Taliban's juggernaut across Afghanistan, India reached out to major global powers to craft a broad framework in confronting the situation as it was concerned over the possibility of the war-torn country becoming a hotbed for terrorist groups including those having bases in Pakistan.

Under India's presidency, the United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution on August 30, demanding that Afghan territory should not be used for terrorism, called for upholding of human rights and pitched for a negotiated political settlement to the crisis.

Subsequently, the resolution became the basis for discussions on the Afghan crisis at various global forums and dialogues.

Following the Taliban's capture of power, India evacuated a total of 448 Indians and 206 Afghans from Afghanistan as part of its evacuation mission christened "Operation Devi Shakti".

In November, India hosted a regional dialogue on Afghanistan that was attended by the national security advisors of Russia, Iran and all the five Central Asian countries.

Weeks later, India hosted the foreign ministers of the Central Asian countries at a conclave that called for immediate humanitarian aid to the Afghan people and renewed demand for a "truly inclusive" government in Kabul.

One of the key takeaways of India's diplomatic engagement in 2021 was the significant expansion of strategic partnership with the US under the Biden administration that assumed power on January 20.

In March, American President Joe Biden hosted the first-ever summit of the Quad leaders in the virtual format that was followed by an in-person summit in Washington in September for which Prime Minister Narendra Modi had travelled to the US.

During the visit, Modi held separate bilateral talks with Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, covering a range of critical areas including tackling climate change and ramping up cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.

"I think that the relationship between India and the United States -- the largest democracies in the world -- is destined to be stronger, closer, and tighter.

And I think it can benefit the whole world," Biden said at the meeting with Modi.

India's ties with Russia also witnessed major expansion as both sides signed 28 agreements to further broad-base the relations at a summit between Modi and President Vladimir Putin in early December.

In the neighbourhood, India's relations with Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives remained on an upward trajectory.

However, India's relations with Pakistan remained unchanged as Islamabad continued its support to cross border terrorism to create unrest in Jammu and Kashmir.

India also maintained its diplomatic offensive against Pakistan on the issue of terrorism and remained firm on its position on not having any talks with Islamabad until it stops cross border terrorism.

At the fag end of the year, Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla paid a two-day visit to Myanmar in the first such high-level outreach from India after that country's military evicted the democratically-elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup on February 1.

In his meetings with the leaders of the ruling dispensation, Shringla sought the restoration of democracy in the country.

India's ties with Australia, France, Japan, Germany, the UK, Vietnam, the European Union, G-20 and the African continent also saw an upswing.

In late October, Modi travelled to Rome to attend the 16th G-20 Summit.

During the visit, he also met Pope Francis in the Vatican.

From Italy, Modi flew into Glasgow to attend the COP26 Summit where he made a big announcement that India will reach the target of net zero emissions by 2070.

In February, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) had to deal with the situation arising out of criticism by American singer Rihanna, Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, American actress Amanda Cerniand and several other global celebrities on farmer protests.

The MEA reacted sharply to the adverse comments by the global celebrities and activists saying the facts on the issue must be ascertained before rushing to comment on it.

As India was reeling under a devastating second wave of coronavirus pandemic, countries across the globe extended a helping hand to it by sending Liquid Medical Oxygen (LMO), ventilators, oxygen concentrators and other medical supplies.

India also played a significant role in ensuring vaccine equity as it sent around 10 crore doses to around 97 countries under its 'Vaccine Maitri' initiative.

The country also pitched for a united global approach to deal with the pandemic with the external affairs minister saying that it has not just been a once-in-a-century shock to the international system but it also thoroughly exposed all its fault-lines and shortcomings.

The year 2021 also saw the MEA speeding up its economic diplomacy with a sharper reorientation on achieving concrete outcomes.

The Indian missions and posts abroad were conveyed to further the goal of promoting three Ts -- trade, tourism and technology.

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How has trade level between India and Russia changed under Modi and Putin?

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

What do Putin and Modi officially characterize Russia/ India relationship as?

Strategic defense collaboration remains robust with projects like joint production of AK-203 rifles in India, ongoing delivery of the S-400 missile system despite U.S. sanctions threats, and cooperation on advanced technologies such as rocket engine manufacturing and satellite navigation.

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Old friends

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On Monday, PM Modi spoke over the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The phone call reportedly was a follow-up on many of the issues raised during Putin's recent India visit on December 6. According to a statement by the PMO, the two leaders have agreed to remain in regular touch with each other on a range of issues covered under the India-Russia Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership. Insofar as visits from foreign dignitaries and leaders go, Putin's visit to India earlier this month was arguably the most consequential development for India in the field of foreign affairs for quite some time. India, as may be known, has a long and storied relationship with Russia and its precursor, the Soviet Union. From the earliest days, the friendship between the two nations had a strong strategic undertone with both sides supporting each other on the world stage whenever necessary. Indeed, the Soviet Union was undeniably India's greatest ally in the 20th century against the machinations of the western powers like the US that did not take kindly to India announcing itself to be a 'socialist' nation. From Kashmir to the Bangladesh Liberation War, Russia has stood by India in defence of its strategic interests. As a proof of the relationship, a majority of military equipment India currently possesses was either directly supplied by Moscow or is otherwise of Russian origin. In recent years, with the fall of the Soviet Union and India's move towards liberalising its economy, India has ventured out into the world to make a new set of friends. This time around, it is India and the US that are getting along like a house on fire. India has deliberately sought to widen its field diplomatically and militarily in order to not be tied down to a single nation with the rather pragmatic understanding that there are no permanent relationships in international politics. In more recent times, Russia and India have somewhat drifted further apart as Russia bands together with India's rival China to take on the hegemony of the western world that is held up by the US. While India has no interest in joining the US in its power games against Russia, it is very much interested in leveraging its relationship with the west in its struggle to contain a belligerent China. It is here that India has had to perform a tremendous tight-rope walk, particularly following the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia. On the one hand, you have America that wishes to limit or even extinguish India's strategic relationship with Russia. On the other, you have Russia that is increasingly concerned and agitated by India drawing ever closer to the US's sphere of influence as it joins America in endeavours like the Quad grouping. Of particular concern to both sides is India's continuing dependence on Russia for military equipment. The US, already having sanctioned Turkey for the same, looks on menacingly as it threatens India with sanctions for buying the S-400 missile system. Russia, of course, is not only interested in keeping its old defence ties but even expanding them, as it has been recently teasing India with the possibility of being the first nation in the world to buy the improved S-500 missile system. In this regard, Putin's visit to India could be termed as symbolic. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Putin has only ventured out twice from his country, with the second trip being the one to India. His tone and body language during the meeting with PM Modi spoke volumes of the importance he attaches to maintaining the ties with India. Aside from underscoring the good working relationship he has with India's PM, the visit also highlighted that despite the recent turns of history, the two nations still have much to share and collectively work towards. Common concern in regards to the Taliban and Afghanistan is one such area that the two sides are looking to cooperate on in the near future. Another is strengthening existing defence ties between the two nations. Underscoring its strategic independence, India has decided to continue with its defence dealings with Russia, discussing the purchase of the S-400 missile system while also finalising a long-pending Rs 5,000 crore deal for the production of over five lakh AK-203 rifles in a joint Indo-Russian deal. But all said and done, the future of India's relationship with Russia still has some shades of uncertainty. Primary amongst them is the ongoing escalation between Moscow and NATO in regards to Ukraine and eastern Europe. If Russia should choose to brave threats of western sanctions to take action in Ukraine, where does this leave India? Can India still continue its balancing game between east and west at a time when geopolitics are heating up to a boiling point? That remains to be seen.

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Russia remains India’s top arms supplier, even as India diversifies its defense procurement and strengthens ties with the U.S. through the Quad and Indo-Pacific framework to counterbalance Chinese assertiveness.

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Modi's Russia visit shows India isn't worried about making the US mad

  • In a move likely to anger the US, Modi is visiting Russia.
  • The move signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow, and shows the world India is pursuing its own agenda.
  • Modi is aiming to correct the trade imbalance and address China's Indo-Pacific activities.
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In a move likely to anger the US, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Russia on Monday for his first bilateral trip after winning a historic third term in office.

Modi's two-day visit to Russia — where he is scheduled to meet with President Vladimir Putin — is significant in that it signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow. It also shows the world that India is not afraid to pursue its own agenda.

Vinay Kwatra, India's foreign secretary, told reporters in New Delhi that issues between Russia and India have "piled up" and "need to be addressed," per Bloomberg.

Russia's relationship with India goes back to the Cold War, and trade between the two countries has grown since Russia started the war in Ukraine. India is a major buyer of Russian oil. Russia is also India's biggest arms supplier.

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Kwatra underscored that the two countries' trade relationship has remained "resilient."

Still, Modi's trip will "rankle many Western observers," Ved Shinde, a researcher and contributor to Australia's Lowy Institute think tank, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

"Since the Ukraine war began, India's purchase of cheap oil from Russia has been seen as profiting from troubles in the heart of Europe," Shinde added.

Modi's visit to Russia will make the US look bad

Just like Putin's visit to supply-chain hot spot Vietnam, India's engagement with Russia isn't a good look for the US, as it comes while Washington is isolating Putin's regime.

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The US has raised "some concerns" about India's relationship with Russia with New Delhi, Kurt Campbell, the US Deputy Secretary of State, said last month.

However, Washington acknowledges that India's ties with Russia are different from its ties with the US.

"We have many areas of alignment, but it is not surprising that there would be areas where we've had perhaps different perspectives, views, historical ties," Campbell said about America's relationship with India.

India, for its part, is looking to balance its relationship with the world's key powerbrokers — the US, Russia, and China.

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"There are different degrees in India's multi-alignment. Make no mistake — the United States and its allies are more consequential for India's future than its relationship with Russia," wrote Shinde.

India needs to leverage its historical ties with Russia to secure its economy and security, so Modi isn't just in Russia for a goodwill trip.

Reducing the trade imbalance

A key agenda item for the visit is to reduce a huge bilateral trade imbalance, said Kwatra.

India imports about $60 billion of goods a year from Russia, but Russia buys less than 10% of this amount from India, per Bloomberg.

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Modi may also touch on China's activities in the Indo-Pacific region, said Kwatra.

India is trying to manage its relationship with China, which has been testy since a border dispute in 2020. Modi skipped the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kazakhstan last week.

There's also the matter of Russia's ties with China.

At the summit last week, Putin said Russia's relationship with China is in the "best period in history."

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Modi now needs to cozy up to Putin to counter China's advances.

"The reason for the time-tested stability in India-Russia ties is to maintain a continental balance in the Eurasian heartland. That is, to balance China," wrote Shinde.

"Or to put it another way, don't go around making new adversaries when there are already two open fronts — China and Pakistan," Shinde added.

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In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

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India’s growing rivalry with China influences its pragmatic balancing act in foreign policy.

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Putin visiting India: Is it strategic balancing?

By Major General S.B. Asthana
With heated exchanges between the US and Russia due to heavy concentration of troops in Ukraine border scheduled for talks between both, Russias growing dependency on China due to sanctions from West, and Indian tilt towards the US with inclusion in Quad, the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India on December 6, appears to be viewed differently by different world players. Even in domestic debates, the public anger due to Chinese intrusion in Ladakh and growing partnership of Russia and China, indicates that the visit is sensitive in context of international geopolitical scenario; hence will require a delicate strategic balancing including text of joint statement, if issued at the end of the visit. Notwithstanding the above, the visit is a scheduled 21st India-Russia Annual Summit, which couldnt take place earlier due to coronavirus pandemic, there are many justified reasons to continue with 'Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty (1971)' matured into 'Strategic Partnership (2000)', which has stood the test of time till date, even during ongoing rough relations between China and India.

Why Russia Matters to India Despite Chinese Embrace?

Despite Indian effort for Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence manufacturing and SIPRI indicating significant 33 per cent decrease in import of military hardware by India in recent years, it remains heavily dependent on Russian technology, maintenance, procurement of hardware and spares. For many decades Russians have been collaborating with India in its indigenous manufacturing programs and were amenable to transfer of technology, which India was finding difficult to get from others. It includes some major systems like nuclear-powered submarines, warships/frigates, nuclear reactors, space programmes and flagship projects like Brahmos.

The impending visit, besides deal to commence indigenous manufacturing of AK 203 Kalashnikov rifles, may see some forward movement in collaboration in manufacturing (including transfer of technology of very short range air defence missile systems (VSHORADS), twin engine helicopters to replace Cheetah and Chetak, upgradation of inventory of MIG-29 and Sukhoi aircrafts. S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile system which India had signed in 2018 for $5.43 billion is a done deal, and the threat of CAATSA is unlikely to have any impact on delivery schedule. It was chosen because it was most suitable to Indian requirement at that point of time. There are also speculations of approximately ten agreements to be signed between the two countries, which could include reciprocal exchange of logistics Agreement and 10-year military technical agreement, besides Two plus Two dialogue to strengthen existing strategic partnership. While the US may be amenable to a waiver on CAATSA for S-400, in view of common China challenge, but further deals may create some new friction points in strengthening of Indo-US relations.

On strategic context, Russia continues to be a favourable P5 member in UN and continues to support India in various multilateral organisations like the UN, SCO, BRICS on crucial issues. It's a technological powerhouse, with one of the largest producer of military hardware, producing rugged equipment suited for variety of terrain, where Indian forces operate. While its nearness to China, its discomfort with Indian embrace to Quad, growing Indo-US partnership, and hardware sale to Pakistan, forces some of the opinion makers in India to suggest divorcing Russia in favour of US, but such opinions are marred by impracticality, ignorance of Indian hardware dependency on Russia and its track record of reliability of its partnership with India. In its revised Military Strategy document Russia continues to name India as its partner along with China, and has not delayed/defaulted on any hardware support to India, even during standoff with China. The interest of both countries also coincide regarding concerns on export of terror after Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan and resultant humanitarian crisis, which will certainly be a subject of discussion and may find some mention in joint statement.

Reality of Sino-Russian Embrace

The much publicised Sino-Russian embrace by Chinese media and Russian acceptance to go along has been due to economic compulsions due to increasing sanctions from West, common adversary US branding both as competitors in security strategy documents. Objectively an expansionist, aggressive China seeking Sino-centric world order does suit Russia as well, which is looking for multilateral world order. Chinese BRI has already side-lined Eurasian dream, its technological theft like alleged hypersonic technology proliferation and increasing border claims in previously settled border with Tajikistan are not to Russian liking. Russia has made no commitment to back China's misadventure in South China Sea/Himalayas and China has also not made any commitment on Ukraine borders. Reiterating India as a strategic partner may be Moscow's message to US and Beijing both. It is however, impractical to expect Russia criticising China or Pakistan or India discussing Ukraine issue during this visit, due to peculiar geo-political equations, and Russians need for strategic and economic balancing.

Strategic Balancing by India

India and US have commonality of Interest in most issues including tackling China, which has pushed India to become an important global strategic partner of US, by its aggressive designs. There is congruence of interests in most global issues between US and India in the current geo-strategic equation. India stands with US and Quad in context of Indo-Pacific and facing China challenge. India continues to do its best to respond to sensitivities and concerns of the US, at times risking some of its old relationships like Iran. To accommodate US interest India reduced import of oil from Iran, bearing a cost disadvantage, as Iran oil was being imported in Rupee terms, in crude form and attuned to existing refineries in India. India doesn't seem to be repeating the same mistake with Russians, who haven't done anything bilaterally which demands a divorce in mutual relationship. Moreover, military capacity building of India also adds to collective strength of Quad, which is in collective interest.

Lately India is trying to be self-reliant, as well as diversifying procurement from various countries to include US, France, Israel. In last decade the defence procurement from Russia has gradually reduced from over 65 percent approximately to nearly 49 percent and correspondingly increased in favour of the US, Israel and France. There is a noticeable upward trend in purchase of US military hardware, as the year 2020 alone saw a purchase $3.4 billion worth of US military equipment, indicating enough accommodation by India. In a buyers' market US has competitors to include Russia, Israel and France, and every country will make sovereign choice to pick the best deal including India. India has also made modest beginning in exporting Rs 38,000 crore worth of military equipment, as a step towards self-reliance, seeking support of all the partners.

(Major General S.B.Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)

--IANS
asthana/ksk/

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

While India deepens its engagement with Western democracies, it deliberately maintains a strategic autonomy policy by nurturing its historic relationship with Russia, recognizing Moscow’s role as a key defense partner and diplomatic ally, particularly in the United Nations Security Council.

Title:

Content: 31 Dec, 2023 08:46

Deeper than diplomacy: There is a reason why New Delhi and Moscow rely on each other

Russia’s respect for India’s policy of strategic autonomy is the core strength of bilateral ties, as the Indian foreign minister’s latest visit proves

Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s five-day official visit to Russia was timely and significant for more than one reason.

India and Russia had held annual summits at the leadership level since 2000. This sent an important message in terms of the value attached by the two countries to bilateral ties, but it also conveyed a broader geopolitical message to other international partners of the two countries.

But this practice was broken largely because of Russia’s pre-occupation with the Ukraine conflict and its fallout. The last annual summit took place in 2021.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin could have held a summit on the margins of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in South Africa or the G20 summit in New Delhi, but Putin did not attend either. While Jaishankar’s visit does not substitute for a summit meeting, it was intended to fill a political gap.

Jaishankar and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have met six times during the year, and the Indian external affairs minister also met with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov during the year on the economic agenda. For Jaishankar to visit Russia before the end of the year, undeterred by the Russian winter and holiday season, reflects the importance both sides attach to the further expansion of ties.

Putin has on several occasions praised the Indian prime minister and positively noted the country’s economic progress. At the ‘Russia Calling’ Forum in early December this year, he said that despite pressure from others, he “cannot imagine that Modi could be frightened, intimidated or forced to take any actions, steps, decisions that would at variance with the national interest of India and the Indian people.” He noted that sometimes he is surprised at Modi’s tough stance on Indian national interests. He added that the policy pursued by Modi is the “main guarantor” of the developing bilateral ties.

This is high and unusual praise by Putin. It can be interpreted on several levels – particularly as an acknowledgement that India has resisted pressure from the US and others to condemn Russia over the Ukraine conflict, impose sanctions, and reduce defense ties with Russia. India has, on the contrary, bought discounted Russian oil to the point that Russia has become its biggest oil supplier. It has argued that ensuring this market flow of Russian oil has helped avoid a major spike in oil prices and checked global inflation. Indian-Russian trade has expanded, while the G7 has broken economic and trade ties with Russia.

India played a major role as G20 president in negotiating the part in the Leaders’ Declaration on the Ukraine conflict despite the hardening of the G7 position and that of Russia and China after the G20 summit in Bali. The final text does not mention Russia by name, while the G7 was satisfied that the general formulations in it could be sold as being directed at Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.

Not surprisingly, Putin complimented India for de-politicizing the G20. India chaired the SCO summit in July 2023 and participated in the BRICS summit in South Africa in August 2023. This countered G7 attempts to isolate Russia diplomatically. In fact, the New Delhi SCO Declaration spoke of more effective global institutions, a more representative, just, and multipolar world order based on international law and multilateralism, and criticized the unilateral application of economic sanctions – a clear critique of the Western-dominated global system.

It is against this backdrop that Putin received Jaishankar at the Kremlin, the first time that such a gesture has been made to him personally. The general unavailability of Putin to visiting foreign ministers is well-known.

Jaishankar delivered a personal message from Modi to Putin. During the meeting, Putin invited his “friend Modi” to visit Russia in 2024 and noted that Indian-Russian ties were on the whole developing well. He said that he had been briefing Modi on developments in Ukraine, remarking that he understands the Indian prime minister is willing to do his utmost to resolve the matter by peaceful means. He added that he would give additional information to Jaishankar on Ukraine.

India has continued to strengthen ties with the US, including in the defense domain. It is a member of the Quad and a strong supporter of the Indo-Pacific concept, both of which are intended to deter China’s regional ambitions. Russia has reservations about the Quad and the Indo-Pacific concept, which it sees as the US engaging in bloc politics in Asia.

Putin’s praise for Modi and India and the gesture of receiving Jaishankar takes into consideration these realities of India’s foreign policy which are meant to safeguard the larger national interests. At the core of this is Russia’s respect for India’s policy of strategic autonomy. Jaishankar’s high-profile visit and the vigorous language used to mark the importance of India’s traditional ties with Russia would have caught Washington’s attention.

Jaishankar noted that after talks with Lavrov, “what clearly came out was that India-Russia relations remain very steady, remain very strong, they are based on our strategic convergence, on our geopolitical interests, and because they are mutually beneficial.” The two leaders discussed political cooperation within international organizations such as BRICS, the SCO, etc.

Indian-Russian trade is at an all-time high, exceeding $50 billion last year, and should pass that figure this year. It includes energy, fertilizers, coking coal, and other items, for which long term arrangements were discussed. India intends to expand investments in Russia’s oil and gas sector.

On the nuclear side, two important amendments were agreed to which will take the Kudankulam nuclear power project forward. Mutual investments, progress on a bilateral investment treaty, and the resumption of negotiations between India and the Eurasian Economic Union for a free trade agreement will be resumed in the second half of January 2024.

Moscow and New Delhi will expand cooperation in the Russian Far East. India expects a large representation from this region at the Vibrant Gujarat Summit in January 2024.

Connectivity between India and Russia will be critical for expanding trade ties – connectivity from western India through the International North-South Transport Corridor, and connectivity from eastern India, from Chennai to Vladivostok, and the polar route. To promote tourism, India is open to increasing the number of flights from India every week.

The talks between Jaishankar and Lavrov were comprehensive. They discussed the global strategic situation, Ukraine, Gaza, the Indo-Pacific, ASEAN, Afghanistan, UN-related matters, the challenges facing the Global South, and the building of a multipolar order. China would undoubtedly have been discussed, but diplomatic discretion here would be normal.

In the joint press conference, Lavrov spoke of prospects for more defense cooperation, including joint production of modern weapons under New Delhi’s ‘Make in India’ program, and, importantly, expressed respect for India’s efforts to diversify its defense ties. He noted bilateral cooperation in rocket engine manufacturing and satellite navigation systems.

Jaishankar’s visit was productive in maintaining the momentum of Indian-Russian ties, which have been built over 60 years, a relationship that he believes is not just about politics, diplomacy, or economics, but is much deeper.

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How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

What formal frameworks do India and Russia cooperate within?

Russia, despite its increasingly close ties with China, respects India’s strategic autonomy and continues to view India as an essential partner in balancing China’s regional power.

Title:

Content: Archive | Countries | Persons | Catalog | News | Discussions | Jokes | Contacts | PDA
| Central Asia | Afghanistan | Kazakhstan | Kyrgyzstan | Tajikistan | Turkmenistan | Uzbekistan |
News & Events
|
Thursday, 24.03.2022
09: 51 Public administration in Kyrgyz.
"Three ministers will be 'responsible' for ensuring food safety," - the head of the GKNB K.Tashiev
09: 42 Akbar Tursunov: Navruz as a phenomenon of world culture.
Part I
09: 14 "It will be a disaster."
Where will the Central Asian countries take the Internet if Russia is disconnected from the global network?
09: 09 Chief editor "Navalny Live" Baulina killed by missile in Kiev
08: 24 Arabs thank Kadyrov for the spirit of Jihad recreated in Ukraine
08: 19 by brother.
China and India have supported Russia in the Ukraine crisis.
What do they expect to get in return?
8: 16 was a jerk.
Ugly dew-prankers “killed ” the career of the head of the British Ministry of Defense Wallace
Strategic incompetence has always haunted Beijing - Edward Luttwak
08: 01 Russia: Good by, WTO! - V.Katasonov
07: 58 What is the capital city?
And most importantly - why? - A. Bektenova
07: 52 Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright dies of cancer
Storm it: how the accident of the Caspian pipe will affect the energy market of the EU
01: 42 Bread world: what will happen to the global wheat market
Syria wants to be pulled out of the Iranian trench, - I. Subbotin
00: 27 Mohammad Alam Izidyar: "The Taliban could not take the hearts of Afghans"
00: 24 America will have to bite its own tail, - E. Pustovoitova
00: 23 The end of the era of globalization – there is no way back, - V.Kudryavtsev
Wednesday, 23.03.2022
20: 40 Famous Kyrgyz street-field commander Aspekov was imprisoned for 7 years.
Not to be mischievous
20: 34 China without explaining anything removed all its skaters from the world Cup in France
18: 52 Chubais escaped from Russia.
I got it!
18: 45 Bulat Sultanov: "The White House will create a separation barrier between Russia and China in Central Asia"
17: 48 China and Russia today: friendly neutrality.
Ahead of Taiwan
17: 47 US should punish Saudi Arabia for supporting Russia
17: 43 Sky News (USA): Biden continues to disgrace the United States
17: 40 Ukrainian disappointment of Beijing, - Yu.Tavrovsky
15: 37 Putin just announced the transfer of payments for gas from Europe in rubles
14: 40 Mountain Badakhshan.
What are you, knot of Tajik contradictions? - A.Gorokhov
13: 24 To cowards and alarmists, - Erik Khanymamedov
11: 53 What will happen if Russia turns on its counter-sanctions? - V. Tetelmin
11: 41 Poland, with the sanction of Biden, is preparing troops to enter Western Ukraine?
11: 16 Honorary Consul of Estonia in Kyrgyzstan Viktor Kryltsov dies
11: 07 Russians organized tours to Uzbekistan for the sake of issuing Visa and Mastercard cards
11: 03 Teach women only to spoil.
The Taliban *, after a little thought, forbade middle and high school girls to go to school
10: 10 Confused numbers with letters.
Two vice ministers (Tuibaeva and Kurmanbekov) of digital development of Kyrgyzstan dismissed as idlers
10: 05 Kazakhstan weightlifter Nizhat Rakhimov was robbed of the Olympic "gold" -2016.
Allegedly - doping
09: 02 Drug-addicted Taliban, - Y.Makeev
08: 17 On the Leilek section of the Tajik-Kyrgyz border, there is again a fight between border guards.
"Peace" lasted 1 week
08: 10 Died Kazakh actor Yuri Pomerantsev, who became People 's back in 1961!
07: 54 The transition of Saudi Aramco to yuan will be a "real explosion" - Zhang Yugui
04: 16 New social contract in Kazakhstan: what should it be?
04: 10 $500 per barrel: Europe is building an energy scaffold
04: 05 The disappearance of the order that arose after the Cold War leads to the fact that.., - T.Bordachev
03: 14 Nuclear power plants – the path to decarbonization of Kazakhstan
03: 06 Ukraine: who to believe – Biden, Putin or Gogol? - Hamid Dabashi
02: 17 Storm on the Black Sea damaged one of the berths of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium
02: 11 "Square" kulbit.
Is the housing market likely to collapse in Kazakhstan?
Tucker Carlson: We have a right to know what ’ s going on in Ukraine, but our leaders lie to us
00: 08 Union deficit, but not sanctions.
EAEU countries simplify imports, but do not want joint isolation - "K"
Tuesday, 22.03.2022
22: 21 In the Tajik Pamir again turned on the Internet
20: 19 Kazakhstan figure skater Shaydorov was not allowed to the world Cup in France.
Because of anti-Russian sanctions?
20: 08 In the battles in Ukraine as a Hero killed a private of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Egemberdi Dorboev
Archive
© CentrAsiaTop
CenterAsia |
Brotherly.
China and India have supported Russia in the Ukraine crisis.
What do they expect to get in return?
08: 19 24.03.2022
Russia ’ s military operation in Ukraine provoked the expected harsh reaction of the West.
The United States, the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom adopted several packages of sanctions, including against the financial, energy, transport and technological sectors of the Russian economy.
Following the restriction of the work of Visa and MasterCard payment systems, many foreign companies announced a partial or complete cessation of activities in Russia.
However, not all states supported the sanctions campaign.
Moreover, China and India have already started talking about expanding cooperation with Russia.
"Lenta.ru" understood why the "Asian giants" decided to support the northern neighbor and what they hope to get in return.
Friendship without barriers
Russia has been developing friendly relations with China for almost a decade since Chinese President Xi Jinping took over as chairman of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2013.
Back in 2019, he said that “over the past 70 years, China-Russia relations have reached an unprecedented high level, ” and described relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin as deeply personal friendship.
In early February, Putin, at the invitation of Xi Jinping, attended the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing.
The visit was the occasion for full-scale negotiations, as a result of which the parties signed a package of intergovernmental, interdepartmental and commercial documents, as well as agreed to increase the volume of bilateral trade to $250 billion.
Friendship between the two states has no borders, there are no forbidden zones in cooperation, the strengthening of bilateral strategic cooperation is not directed against third countries, is not subject to the influence of a changing international environment and situational changes in third countries.
After Putin announced the start of a special operation in Ukraine on February 24, the Chinese authorities did not condemn the actions of the Kremlin and did not call the operation “invasion ”.
However, Xi Jinping called on Russia and Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table to de-escalate the situation and said that China stands for respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states.
Recently, the situation in eastern Ukraine has changed dramatically and attracts increased attention of the international community.
Xi Jinping
General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China
Nevertheless, after the introduction of Western sanctions against Russia, the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of the PRC Zhao Lijian said about the harm of economic restrictions in the settlement of the crisis.
He pointed out that the sanctions imposed created new problems leading to mutual loss and multiple economic losses.
She refrained from condemning Russia ’ s operation in Ukraine when voting in the UN Security Council and India.
The Chinese government continues to be neutral – like China ’ s political leadership, it calls for a cessation of hostilities and a return to diplomatic dialogue, avoiding criticism of Russia ’ s actions.
Special attention to the crisis in Ukraine was drawn by the death of a 22-year-old Indian student in Kharkov.
The incident caused indignation in Indian society, which turned into a demand for the authorities to take immediate measures to organize the evacuation of more than 20,000 Indians who are in Ukraine.
Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin
Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin
Photo: Mikhail Klimentyev / RIA Novosti
Later, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and discussed the issue of the export of Indian citizens from Ukraine.
Putin assured that all instructions were given to the military, and they are doing everything possible to ensure the safe removal of foreigners from the combat zone and their return to their homeland.
The prompt reaction of the Russian authorities and the promise to investigate the death of the student allowed to smooth out the possible consequences and maintain friendly relations with the Indian side.
Not the last role, however, was played by the pragmatic attitude of official Delhi: Western sanctions and their attempts to isolate Russia economically open up new attractive short-term and long-term prospects not only for China, but also for India.
The Asian Giants
Today, China is Russia ’ s key economic partner.
The growth of trade in ten years was about 165 percent.
Trade turnover in 2021 increased by 35.9 percent and amounted to $146 billion compared to 2020.
The plans of Russia and China are to increase it to 200 billion by 2024.
However, there is a significant imbalance in the economic relations between the two countries.
While China accounted for about 18 percent of total trade with Russia, Russia ’ s share of Chinese trade was just over two percent.
Under sanctions and a ban from Western countries on the supply of a number of high-tech goods to Russia (microelectronics, marine and navigation equipment), military and dual-use products, aircraft and spare parts, goods for use in the aviation and space industry, equipment and technologies for oil refining, as well as reducing demand for Russian energy resources, this imbalance will increase.
Photo by Shizuo Kambayashi / AP
According to Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, the restrictions imposed on Russia will make China our country ’ s main trading partner for decades to come, which will inevitably affect coordination in the military and political spheres.
“Everything will be pretty clear here.
The situation, in which we will depend on one China, will require some policy adjustments from us, ” the expert believes.
It is impossible to say that we will be a "junior partner", but we will have to take into account the interests of China to a much greater extent than before, and this will be expressed in some joint actions in the military sphere - most likely, in the region of Northeast Asia.
Vasily Kashin
Director of CKEMI NRU HSE
In such circumstances, the partnership with India, guided by its own aspirations, which on a global and regional scale often do not contradict the interests of Russia, becomes especially significant for Russia.
For both Moscow and New Delhi, bilateral Russian-Indian relations have an independent value.
Today, India is a leading importer of fertilizers, oil and vegetable oil, and the Russian side is one of the main suppliers of these goods.
In addition to hydrocarbons and fertilizers, the Indian side buys from Russia products of the military-industrial complex and nuclear energy.
In turn, India exports to Russia pharmaceutical, agricultural and other goods.
Materials on the topic:
Europe wants to give up Russian gas.
Why is it almost impossible?
15 March
Why China took the side of Russia in the Ukrainian crisis and supported it in disputes with NATO?
17 february
However, trade between the states is significantly inferior to Russian-Chinese cooperation.
Last year, it amounted to about $12 billion, which was a record figure in the entire history of trade relations between India and Russia.
Nevertheless, Putin and Modi during the meeting in New Delhi within the framework of the Russian-Indian summit "Russia - India: Partnership for Peace, Progress and Prosperity" assessed the volume of bilateral trade as "not corresponding to the potential of strategic partnership" and stated the need to intensify efforts to increase mutual trade to achieve the target of 30 billion by 2025.
Not canceled this desire and new sanctions, which significantly complicated for India the system of payments with Russia.
Russia ’ s disconnection from SWIFT paralyzed about $500 million for goods already sent to Russia.
As reported by The Hindu newspaper, the Indian government has already ordered the creation of a group to study the impact of Western sanctions against Russia on the Indian economy.
It included representatives of the Ministries of Food and Consumer Affairs, Fertilizer, Trade, Foreign Affairs, Oil and Natural Gas.
According to Alexei Kupriyanov, a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, Russia previously played the role of a mediator in relations between India and China, at the same time a mediator of such a force that helped to find mutual understanding between states in the event that relations were deadlocked.
Now objective circumstances make possible the scenario of closer rapprochement between Russia and China.
The Indians are extremely concerned that, as a result of Western sanctions, Russia may even closer to China, and are trying to prevent this.
That is why they do not plan to curtail further cooperation with Russia - because it will only push Russia into the Chinese arms
Alexey Kupriyanov
Senior Researcher, IMEMO RAS
Ignoring threats
Despite the attractiveness of the voids that have formed in the Russian economic space, both Beijing and New Delhi have close trade relations with Washington.
Thus, the United States is the third largest trading partner of China after ASEAN and the EU (if you evaluate not by individual countries, but by macro-regions).
755.6
billion dollars was the trade turnover between China and the United States in 2021
More extensive economic ties allow the United States to require India and China to comply with the sanctions regime against Russia, since both countries depend on foreign technologies, on Western intellectual property, on the supply of components and developments of European and American companies.
The White House is already considering the possibility of imposing sanctions against India because of the import of Russian weapons and the position regarding the special operation of Russia in Ukraine.
India is now a really important security partner for the United States, and we appreciate that.
I hope that the leadership of India will decide that it is time to distance itself from Russia
Donald Lou
Assistant Secretary of State
According to Vasily Kashin, director of the HSE CCEMI, the abuse by the American side of its role in world finance can cause a negative reaction from the Indian authorities, who "very strictly protect the independence of their foreign policy."
India does not see itself as a "junior partner" of the United States, who is told who to be friends with and with whom not.
Attempts at harsh and brutal pressure will cause an extremely negative reaction
Vasily Kashin
Director of CKEMI NRU HSE
Jen Psaki
Jen Psaki
Photo by Patrick Semansky / AP
Similar threats are being made against China.
White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki promised China “significant consequences ” from the United States for violating sanctions against Russia because of the situation in Ukraine.
However, the Chinese government has repeatedly stated that it does not accept unilateral economic pressure and the application of the principle of extraterritoriality.
When considering the issue of Ukraine and relations with Russia, the American side must strictly and accurately take into account the concerns of China and prevent the infringement of the rights and interests of the Chinese side.
Zhao Lijian
official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China
Kashin noted that imposing sanctions on China is an order of magnitude more dangerous than imposing sanctions on Russia.
He explained that the Chinese economy controls many key production chains and is a key market for many American businesses, which will require much more careful sanctions pressure on China.
The British newspaper The Guardian, citing sources, reports that the Chinese authorities have already decided to send economic assistance to Russia against the background of a special operation in Ukraine.
The source stressed that Beijing is serious about cooperation with Moscow, since such an initiative allegedly comes from Xi Jinping, who with Putin “shares the opinion of the United States as a despot. ”
Photo by Bikas Das / AP
It does not want to refuse cooperation with Russia and India.
Thus, countries are considering the possibility of switching to trade settlements in rubles and rupees.
The new mechanism will allow Indian exporters to receive payment for their goods in national currency instead of dollars and euros.
It is planned that the Russian bank for this purpose should open an account in the Indian, and the Indian - in the Russian.
* * *
Attempts to exert economic pressure on countries actually translate the confrontation into a political plane.
The economic well-being of the state becomes the subject of bargaining, which has to be sacrificed as a sign of political loyalty to this or that bloc of countries.
Both China and India consider themselves exclusively independent players in the international space.
The authorities of these countries do not want to obey the political will of the United States, to lose the benefit of cooperation with Russia and consider offensive instructions dictating how and on what conditions to build relations with other states.
Russia will remain a strategic partner for both China and India.
However, in the face of Russia ’ s loss of other alternatives, cooperation will be disproportionate.
The Russian side is more likely to retain its role as a mediator in India-China relations.
India is not interested in the loss of a supplier of goods of the military-industrial complex and in the rapid rapprochement of Russia with China.
China, in turn, is not interested in breaking the Russian-Indian cooperation in order to prevent India from rapprochement with the United States.
21 March 22
Source - lenta.ru
Permanent address of the article - https: / / centrasia.org / newsA.php? st = 1648099140
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- Strategic perspectives
- Family matters
- On the situation at the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium
- Will Kapshagai change the name and status?
- Famous Kazakh actor Yuri Pomerantsev passed away
- Working schedule of the head of state
- The Speaker of the Senate visited a social workshop and a social service center
- Prime Minister instructed to strengthen control over compliance with the 15% mark-up on socially significant goods
Go to the version with frames
© CentrAsiaTop

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

What do Putin and Modi officially characterize Russia/ India relationship as?

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

In regional multilateral platforms such as BRICS, SCO, and the G20, India has resisted Western attempts to isolate Russia, advocating for a multipolar world order and critiquing unilateral economic sanctions.

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

What formal frameworks do India and Russia cooperate within?

What vision of global dynamics do India and Russia share?

polycentric system of international relations

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Amid increasing Sino-Russian cooperation, India leverages its ties with both Russia and the U.S. strategically, ensuring defense supplies and energy needs while navigating geopolitical tensions.

For instance, following the 2020 China-India border clashes and amid volatile Russia-NATO relations over Ukraine, India has refrained from condemning Russia, instead purchasing discounted Russian oil to stabilize its energy security and continuing defense deals despite sanctions risks.

Title:

Content: Lithuanian Foreign Minister Lance Burgess recently visited India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister Sujssen on the regional security threat posed by Russia and China and the importance of reducing cooperation with Russia in the military, diplomatic and economic fields.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis also confirmed to Lithuanian media today that following the establishment of a representative office in Taiwan last year and the opening of an economic and trade office in Australia this year, India will also set up an embassy in Vilnius, the capital of the country.
The Lithuanian government, which took office in December 2020, is committed to expanding and deepening relations with the Indo-Pacific region, with new embassies in Australia, South Korea and Singapore, and an economic and trade office in Taiwan expected to open this year.
Bordering Russia and Belarus, Lithuania was occupied by the Soviet Union for about 50 years and has always been wary of Moscow ’ s imperial ambitions.
Russia ’ s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February proved Lithuania ’ s long-held warning to its European and American allies.
With Lithuania at the forefront of European countries in supporting Ukraine, countering Russia, and even supporting Taiwan against Beijing ’ s bullying, Lithuania can be expected to play a more important role in the security issues linking Europe and the Indo-Pacific region.
During his visit to India on the 26th, he spoke at the annual Raisina Dialogue with foreign ministers from Poland and Luxembourg, as well as experts from Britain and the United States to discuss the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on European and global security structures and economic and trade activities.
Lithuania's Foreign Ministry said that during the meeting with Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the two sides discussed issues such as supply chain diversification and reducing economic and trade dependence on autocratic regimes, and stressed that Lithuania and the European Union see India as an important partner and that Russia's aggression is likely to expand beyond Ukraine.
Both sides agreed that since global food and energy supplies would be greatly affected, even countries far away from Russia could not be aloof to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
After Russia's full invasion of Ukraine in February, India's vote on the Russia-Ukraine issue at the United Nations mostly chose not to oppose Russia, and so far has not joined the sanctions against Russia, and even decided to increase the purchase of Russian oil at reduced prices, which has caused concern in Western countries that have positioned India as an important liberal and democratic partner in the Indo-Pacific region in recent years.
Despite India ’ s efforts in recent years to boost its production of armaments, and the trend of arms imports from Russia falling to the west, according to a report released in March by the Stockholm Institute for International Peace (SIPRI), a Swedish think-tank, Russia accounted for an average of nearly 50% of India ’ s total arms imports between 2017 and 2021.
Based on factors such as territorial disputes and armed conflicts along its borders, India has in recent years tended to regard China as a top security threat and has maintained a degree of cooperation with Russia since the Cold War era.
Aaditya Dave, a researcher specializing in South Asia at the Royal United Military Research Institute (RUSI), a British think tank, recently wrote that the West has long avoided providing India with advanced weapons and military technology, but Russia is willing to do so and relatively favorable conditions, so India has become the largest buyer of Russian military equipment.
However, the war in Ukraine and the West ’ s reaction are likely to deepen Russia ’ s need for economic, trade and strategic cooperation with China, and the tightening of Russia-China relations will inevitably lead to unease in India.
On the other hand, Russia has also strengthened its relations with India ’ s old enemy Pakistan in recent years.
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, who visited Russia in February before stepping down in April, became the first Pakistani prime minister to visit Russia in nearly 23 years and the first foreign leader to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin after the war.
David pointed out that while there are still countries in Europe that continue to buy oil and gas from Russia, convincing India to join sanctions against Russia is obviously not easy.
However, India is also concerned about the impact of international sanctions on Russia, affecting the acquisition of the military equipment needed to counter the Chinese armed forces.
David called on the West to help India accelerate diversification and localization of its arms supply chain, rather than restricting access to India ’ s weapons.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced during a visit to India on 21-22 that Britain would simplify administrative procedures, shorten delivery times, and strengthen bilateral military-industrial cooperation, including technology transfer and localization, within the framework of a Make-in-India policy.
The prime minister ’ s office said it was the first time the UK had used the Open General Export Licence (OGEL) mechanism in the Indo-Pacific region to increase the efficiency of arms sales to specific countries.
# Russia # India # Lithuania # Indo-Pacific # Military

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

How has Russia/ India trade evolved since the start of the war in Ukraine?

India's purchases of Russian oil increased

How has trade level between India and Russia changed under Modi and Putin?

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

weapons supply
commerce
energy
security & military

Concurrently, India participates actively in the Quad and Indo-Pacific initiatives to counterbalance China and maintain a diversified set of partnerships.

On economic front, bilateral trade between India and Russia has risen to record highs, exceeding $50 billion recently, with India expanding investments in Russia’s oil and gas sectors.

How has Russia/ India trade evolved since the start of the war in Ukraine?

India's purchases of Russian oil increased

How has trade level between India and Russia changed under Modi and Putin?

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

Both countries have agreed to enhance connectivity projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor, Chennai-Vladivostok shipping link, and development of the Northern Sea Route.

Title:

Content:
India and Russia signed a program of cooperation to boost trade and joint investment projects in Russia's Far East Region during Modi-Putin talks on Tuesday. At the same time, they agreed to strengthen connectivity and security linkages in the Eurasian space and Indian and Pacific Oceans.

The 22nd Russia-India Annual Summit will lead to a greater collaboration between the two countries in Russian Far East and the Eurasian space, including the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), according to experts.

The 81-paragraphbilateral Joint Statement underscored the "shared vision" to enhance transport and connectivity cooperation, as well as a "solid commitment" to enhance economic linkages in Russia's resource-rich Far East, Pravesh Kumar Gupta, an Associate Fellow at New Delhi-based think tank Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), told Sputnik India.

The 22nd Annual Summit, a "unique and pivotal event in the current global geopolitical context" according to Gupta, exposed the disappointment of Western countries.

"Amidst global turbulence, the summit served as a crucial platform for leaders to engage in constructive discussions and strategic dialogues, with the aim of bolstering cooperation in vital areas such as trade, energy, connectivity, defence, and technology. This event has been widely acknowledged as a significant milestone in the ongoing development of the close ties between India and Russia, a success that stood in stark contrast to the disappointment felt by the Western world," the Indian think-tanker asserted.

Lauding the Summit outcomes, Gupta remarked that the leaders would intensify effort to develop "promising production and marketing chains in Eurasia" and stick to the new plan for the Far East in providing enhanced cooperation in different sectors, including transport and connectivity.

Specifically both leaders shared a vision pointing to three projects – International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor as well as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), or the Polar Route.

"Most importantly, these connectivity projects are free from any political agenda, unlike the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as clearly mentioned in the joint statement. Their implementation will be based on the principles of transparency, broad participation, local priorities, financial sustainability, and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations," the VIF pundit underlined.

Gupta expressed confidence that the proposal to establish a joint working group on developing the NSR would speed up the project, which promised "significant cost savings and reduced shipping times" for goods traveling between Europe and Asia.

"The route's increased accessibility due to melting Arctic ice has sparked increased interest in its potential for commercial shipping and trade, offering a bright future for global trade," Gupta stated.

In the context of the INSTC, the expert underscored that it could turn out to be the most "cost-effective and favourable" connectivity project to increase Indian exports to Eurasia and vice-versa. He explained that the 7,200-kilometre-long multimodal corridor was in line with Moscow's geo-economic focus on Asia-Pacific following the Ukraine conflict.

Russia, India To Implement The Idea of A 'Greater Eurasian Space'

In terms of bolstering cooperation in Asia-Pacific, or near India's own neighbourhood, Modi and Putin shared approaches on building a "new architecture" of a 'Greater Eurasian space'.

Although, initially Russia was focused primarily on the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, the Ukrainian conflict completely changed the situation, Alexey Kupriyanov, an expert in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) at Moscow-based think tank IMEMO RAS told Sputnik India.

At the same time, the think-tanker highlighted that a growing trade turnover between Russia and India was pushing Moscow to return to the Indian Ocean Region, primarily to ensure the protecting of Russian vessels in areas not covered by Indian Navy's operations, which include the Red Sea and the Mediterranean region.

"In the long term, this means that Russian ships will soon operate more intensively in the Indian Ocean and expand their presence," Kupriyanov stressed.

It would bolster India's security efforts and help it manage the power competition between China and the US, even as Indian Navy has intensified inter-operability with western maritime forces in recent years, the expert asserted.

"Since India's focus is primarily on the eastern part of the region, Russian ships in the western part could help fill the vacuum of security there. This will reduce the need for East African countries to seek help from China and the US to combat pirates, smugglers and drug traffickers," Kupriyanov concluded.

(With Inputs From Agencies)

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

These projects, touted as transparent and politically neutral alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, aim to boost trade and strategic cooperation across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean region, where Russia’s naval presence complements India’s security concerns vis-à-vis China and the U.S..

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Russia and India call for ceasefire in Gaza
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Gavriil Grigorov / POOL / Go to the bank of picturesПрезидент РФладимир Путин и премьер-министИндии Нарендра Моди во время прогулки в в резизизивезиденции Ново-Огарево
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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for the implementation of the UN resolution on a ceasefire and the immediate release of detainees in the Gaza Strip.
A joint statement on the outcome of the 22nd annual Russia-India Summit, titled “Russia and India: A Strong and Expanded Partnership, ” was published on the Kremlin ’ s website, stating:“ The parties expressed their deep concern over the situation in the Middle East, with particular attention to the situation in the Gaza Strip. ”
In this regard, Putin and Modi called for the effective implementation of UN General Assembly resolutions and UN Security Council Resolution 2720, and the immediate, safe and unhindered delivery of humanitarian assistance of the required size and directly to the Palestinian civilian population throughout the Gaza Strip.
Russia, India stress urgent need for peaceful resolution of Ukraine crisis
The parties also called for the effective implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2728 on a sustainable long-term ceasefire, the immediate and unconditional release of all detainees, as well as humanitarian access to meet their medical and other humanitarian needs.
Both sides reaffirmed their support for Palestine ’ s full membership in the United Nations and “unwavering commitment to the principle of a two-state solution to a settlement on an internationally recognized basis. ”
Putin and Modi discussed the situation in Afghanistan and called for building it as an independent state.
A community.
Putin gives Modi the Order of Saint Andrew
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The two sides discussed the situation in Afghanistan and called for the development of Afghanistan as an independent, unified and peaceful state free from terrorism, war and drugs, to live in peace with its neighbors and to ensure respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, including for the least protected segments of the Afghan population.
Russia will work to increase the volume of cargo traffic with India by launching new routes for the North-South International Transport Corridor.
Lavrov: Relations between Russia and India are fully compatible with the concept of "special partnership"
It is planned to build bilateral economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of India, including in the following priorities, increasing the volume of cargo traffic with India through the launch of new routes for the North-South International Transport Corridor, the Northern Sea Route and the Vladivostok-Chennai line.
Russia and India will work to improve customs procedures using intelligent digital systems for the unimpeded movement of goods.
On the development of strategic directions for Russian-Indian economic cooperation until 2030, the two countries seek to eliminate non-tariff trade barriers in bilateral trade.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ’ s plane arrived on Monday at Vnukovo airport in the Russian capital Moscow.
Modi's visit will last until July 9, his first trip to Russia in five years, and the prime minister said he looked forward to meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing him as a friend.
Modi noted that the special and distinct strategic partnership between India and Russia has advanced over the past 10 years, including in the areas of energy, security, trade, investment, health, education, culture, tourism and people-to-people exchanges.
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In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

The complexities of India-Russia relations under Modi and Putin reflect India’s broader strategic autonomy – balancing its historic defense and energy partnership with Russia against deepening ties with the U.S. and growing concerns over China.

Title:

Content: Under pressure, will India abandon Russia?
Author: External Submission
Published: Updated:
Recently, Sameer Lalwani, a senior expert at the Asia Center of the American Institute of Peace, and Happymon Jacob, an associate professor of diplomacy and disarmament at Nehru University, wrote that in the short and medium term, the foundation of Russian-Indian relations is still very solid, and in the long term, Indian-Russian relations are on a long-term downward trend, from partnership to trading. "Change".
Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, major democracies have come together to defend Ukraine by condemning Russia ’ s military actions.
But India did not join in, opting instead to abstain in a key UN vote and refusing to condemn its longtime partner, Russia.
Many countries expressed disappointment with India's stance on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
However, some observers believe that India has shown signs of considering a rupture with Russia, and India may change its previous neutral course. In September 2022, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin that “today ’ s era is not an era of war ”, a phrase that seemed to warn Russia, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Modi ’ s stance“ significant. ”
American political scientist Happymon Jacob also wrote that the Indian government is weakening its “long-term partnership ” with Russia and is committed to closer cooperation with the United States.
Based on the interpretation of these events, India needs to strengthen its cooperation with the West and is alienating Russia.
However, the view that "India and Russia will part ways" is too "taken for granted" and does not reflect realistic possibilities.
It is true that in the context of Russia ’ s growing economic dependence on China and its provision of unreliable weapons to India, India should theoretically move away from Russia and promote diversification of partnerships, but this is not realistic or feasible.
The United States, the first Western country to win over India on a number of issues, turned a blind eye to the human rights dispute.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden at last year ’ s G20 summit. (Reuters)
In fact, India is not ready to give up the India-Russia partnership, and in November 2022, Indian Foreign Minister Sujishin visited Russia, stressing that the relationship between the two countries is “strong and stable. ”
For this reason, US policymakers still need to make policy plans around the reality of a lasting India-Russia relationship, but they should also make India realize that Russia is a burden; the United States cannot punish and sanction India because of the close India-Russia relationship.
Because for the United States, India can play a more prominent and more active role in the Indo-Pacific region.
The False Dawn
Analysts have concluded that India is trying to distance itself from Russia based on what Indian officials say, including Modi ’ s verbal confrontation with Putin in September 2022, a vote against Russia at the United Nations, and the cancellation of a multi-billion dollar Russian weapons procurement program (fighters and helicopters).
However, these developments do not mean that India has explicitly chosen to stay away from Russia.
The Washington Post called Modi ’ s September 2022 statement to Putin a “rebuke. ”
But in fact, Modi ’ s statement was not intended primarily to address the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but to express concern about rising food and energy prices.
Several assessment reports issued in India have warned against over-reading Modi ’ s remarks, which are no different from the official position of India in the past that the war has inflicted great trauma on developing countries.
It is undeniable that India has indeed sided with the West in some of the UN ’ s procedural votes, such as allowing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to speak at the UN General Assembly in September 2022.
But in more substantive votes, such as the October 2022 vote on four regions of Russia ’ s military campaign in Ukraine, India abstained.
In addition, in early 2022, India cancelled several agreements to purchase Russian weapons (such as the MiG-29 fighter).
But the decision has little to do with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and is more about promoting domestic arms production and supporting India ’ s “self-reliance ” program.
A few months before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict erupted, the Indian government had planned to cancel these deals, including the purchase of Boeing P-8I aircraft from the United States, in favor of domestically produced weapons.
But India will still buy major weapons such as S-400 air defense systems, stealth frigates and nuclear submarines from Russia, which means India will be tied to Russia for decades to come.
In fact, India cannot really break with Russia, because Russian-made weapons account for a large share of India ’ s arsenal, and Russia still plays a significant role in India ’ s geopolitical considerations, so most of India ’ s political elite still prefer friendly Indian-Russian relations.
India can ’ t really break with Russia because Russian-made weapons make up the bulk of India ’ s arsenal and most of India ’ s political elite still prefer friendly India-Russia relations.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
(Reuters)
(2) Patience and persistence
India has long regarded Russia as a valued partner in its “multidirectional alliance ” strategy.
Within the framework of this strategy, India wants to maintain a constructive strategic partnership with several major powers at the same time, but refuses to form an exclusive alliance with any major powers.
India ’ s leaders believe that the “multidirectional alliance ” strategy is still valid today because Western analysts have misjudged Russia in several important ways.
The authors ’ study found that despite strong Western sanctions against Russia, Indian national security officials still believe in Russia ’ s endurance and durability.
They expect Europe to struggle under pressure from inflation and energy shortages, while Russia ’ s economy will be boosted by rising commodity prices.
After all, Indian companies are investing in Russian energy projects, such as oil and gas extraction projects in Sakhalin, Russia ’ s Far East.
In addition, India has doubled its investment in future India-Russia cooperation in defense technology research and development (including the development of the Brahmos cruise missile).
The leaders also believe that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is likely to turn into a military stalemate that will culminate in a negotiated cease-fire and that Russia will eventually be allowed to reintegrate into the international community.
Indian policymakers also believe that Russia will remain an important geopolitical force that will help India.
India relies on Russia for missile technology, submarine nuclear reactors, and hypersonic weapons, and Russia can still provide diplomatic support to India in the United Nations Security Council, which can exert influence on India ’ s other continental neighbors.
In addition, with the Russian regime in turmoil, Indian officials want to be able to extract more benefits from their dealings with the Russian government, just as India did at the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the two countries established the Brahmos Aerospace Joint Venture.
As India continues to maintain friendly relations with its old partner Russia, the West is hesitant to punish India.
Some observers believe that India will downplay the India-Russia relationship as Russia becomes closer to China and even more dependent on China.
But unlike Western officials, Indian officials do not believe that tough sanctions will force Russia into China ’ s arms, because there is no shortage of friction between China and Russia over Central Asia and the Arctic.
In the eyes of Indian policymakers, India can become a "wedge" between Russia and China, helping Russia retain some autonomy in Sino-Russian relations, and avoiding Russia becoming a "small follower" of China.
On September 15, 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Samarkand State Guesthouse to exchange views on China-Russia relations and international and regional issues of common concern. (Xinhua)
Third, get on with it.
Much of the Indian military ’ s combat and strike equipment is dependent on Russia.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has limited and delayed India ’ s process of acquiring spare parts and equipment upgrades, thus creating a “supply shock ” to India ’ s main Russian-made weapons arsenal.
While India remains concerned about the performance of Russian-made weapons and Russia ’ s ability to provide spare parts, it has not taken any hard measures to curtail the use of Russian materials or to purchase substitutes to accelerate the diversification of military equipment imports.
All in all, India has no plans to achieve a rapid and comprehensive transformation of its Russian-made weapons systems by bringing in other foreign suppliers. After the border crises of 2019 and 2020, there has been some peace and stability in the border area, and Indian strategists believe that India should maintain a low level of operational readiness for the next few years, even if that means increased vulnerability.
In the short to medium term, India plans to keep up with its existing inventory, while at the same time sourcing from the secondary market for Russian components and relying more on domestic military equipment.
India will continue to work with Russia to meet outstanding delivery commitments and selectively sign contracts with the West to support the development of India ’ s indigenous defence industry.
In the long run, India wants to be largely self-sufficient in terms of defense needs and no longer rely on external suppliers.
While India aims to diversify its arsenal and become self-sufficient within the next 20 years, it still needs some key technical support from Russia.
Su-30 fighters will remain the backbone of the IAF for decades, but they cannot be maintained or upgraded without Russian technical support.
India ’ s most important defense export, the BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile, currently sold mainly to Southeast Asian countries to deter China, uses Russian propulsion technology.
As long as Russia is in control of key elements of India ’ s advanced weapons systems, especially fighter jets, cruise missiles and submarines, Russia has considerable influence over India.
Much of the Indian military ’ s combat and strike equipment is dependent on Russia.
Su-30 fighters will remain the backbone of the IAF for decades. (Getty)
The First Friend of India
In addition to the above material considerations, the common ideological orientation has also driven India and Russia to maintain friendly relations.
Both Indian and Russian officials support the “polycentric ” vision of a global order in which there is no single dominant hegemony and each major power maintains its own sphere of influence.
Both India and Russia believe that a “multicentre ” is more stable than an international order governed by one or two superpowers.
India ’ s political elite also maintains a “sense of closeness ” to Russia, which stems from India ’ s decades-long tradition of cooperation with the former Soviet Union.
Two months after the conflict broke out, Yoga Jyotsna, an Indian scholar, said that “Russia is India ’ s number one friend in the eyes of the military and people of insight. ”
According to Rajeswari Rajagopalan, another Indian scholar,
Strategic sympathy for Soviet Russia was widespread not only among Indian politicians, but also among the general Indian population.
This is because Russia ’ s historical support and assistance to India has been “romanticized. ”
Although Indian diplomatic agencies have not helped Russia in its defense, national security officials believe that multiple actors, including NATO, should be held responsible for the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and not all blame should be placed on the Russian side.
A September 2022 survey of more than 1,000 Indian adults found that Indians believe the West and Russia are equally responsible for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (Reuters)
The Indian public is also sympathetic to Russia. A July 2022 poll found that a majority of Indians refuse to describe Russia ’ s military actions in Ukraine as “wrong. ” A September 2022 survey of more than 1,000 Indian adults found that Indians believe that the West and Russia are equally responsible for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and most Indians do not believe that a Russian victory will make the world more dangerous.
Public attitudes in India are not only very different from those in Europe, Australia and Japan, but also in emerging countries such as Brazil and South Africa.
Read the second half of the article.
This article was first published in the South Asia Research Newsletter. It only represents the author 's opinion and does not represent Hong Kong' s position.

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

Putin has publicly praised Modi’s firm stance on India’s national interests and independence from external pressures.

India’s role in multilateral forums often supports Russia diplomatically, while remaining cautious to avoid direct confrontation with Western powers.

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

The evolving global power dynamics, especially the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s regional ambitions, continue to pose challenges and opportunities for this relationship, requiring India to maintain a delicate geopolitical balance.

In summary, under Modi and Putin, India–Russia ties remain a cornerstone of India’s foreign policy, characterized by enduring defense cooperation, economic engagement, and strategic alignment that accommodates India’s rivalry with China by sustaining a multipolar strategic posture.

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

weapons supply
commerce
security & military

What do Putin and Modi officially characterize Russia/ India relationship as?

What vision of global dynamics do India and Russia share?

polycentric system of international relations

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

Despite growing Russia-China rapprochement and Western pressure, India ensures continued partnership with Russia to secure defense and energy needs, while simultaneously advancing relationships with the U.S. and like-minded democracies to counterbalance China’s rise in Asia-Pacific and safeguard its regional security interests.

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

weapons supply
energy
security & military

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

What is missing from available sources is a detailed analysis of internal Indian strategic debates and the longer-term trajectory of the India-Russia relationship considering evolving China-Russia ties, beyond public diplomatic statements and agreements.

Further insights into policy decision-making and military modernization interdependencies would deepen understanding of the relationship's evolution under current leadership.

Title:

Content: Repairing ragged edges of India-Sri Lanka ties may take more work than meets the eye

President Rajapaksa despite his reassuring words to India, has not endeared himself to India in his actions

R Hariharan September 09, 2021 13:10:41 IST

File image of PM Modi with Sri Lankan president Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Twitter @narendramodi

There is no doubt India-Sri Lanka relations have run into rough patches during the last few years. Nothing illustrates this better than the fact that the chair of Sri Lanka's ambassador to India had remained vacant for a year so far. The High Commissioner-designate to India, Milinda Moragoda is in New Delhi only now to assume the office, even though Sri Lankan media had hinted at his appointment as early as August 2020. Of course, the delay in appointing the high commissioner to New Delhi can be conveniently attributed to the Delta variant of the COVID-19 pandemic that hit both countries. However, it also highlights President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s domestic preoccupations overtaking the need to reinvigorate the relations with India, which had become ragged since he assumed power in November 2019.

Of course, the Sri Lankan president visited New Delhi within ten days of assuming office, after Jaishankar, minister for external affairs, flew to Colombo to convey Indian Prime Minister's invitation to visit India. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s visit to New Delhi so soon after assuming office showed that he was conscious of the unique relations existing between the two countries, umbilically linked by geography, culture, religion and shared historical experience.

According to media reports, the Sri Lankan President during his meeting with PM Modi stated that India was the “closest neighbour and longstanding friend” and “whilst, with India the cooperation was multi-faceted with priority given to security-related matters, with other countries [obviously hinting at India’s concern over China’s presence in Sri Lanka], the initiatives for cooperation are by and large, economic and commercial.” He is said to have told the PM that “he would not allow any third force to come in between cooperation with India.”

However, much water has flown in the Palk strait since 2019. There has been a lot of churning up in the internal and external environment of not only India and Sri Lanka, but the Indo-Pacific region as a whole. All the neighbours of India, except Maldives and Bhutan, have joined China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), firming up China’s presence in India’s immediate neighbourhood. India’s relations with China have irreversibly changed from cooperation to confrontation on many fronts, after Chinese troops intruded across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh in May 2020 resulting in the clash at Galwan post, causing casualties on both sides. Even after many rounds of talks to defuse the situation, force levels on both sides of the LAC continue to be high. With the Taliban back in power in Afghanistan, China is likely to play an increasingly assertive role in the region in partnership with Pakistan. This is likely to add further complications to the tenuous relations between the big Asian neighbours.

In the face of China’s increasing belligerence in the Indo-Pacific, India, the US, Japan and Australia have come together to build their collective strength through the Quadrilateral framework. The security relations between the members are also being scaled up. In fact, Indo-US security relations are closer now, than ever before. With these moves, the centre of gravity of global strategic power is shifting to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), with Sri Lanka emerging as its pivot. China’s investment in developing maritime and infrastructure assets in Sri Lanka are an important part of China’s Indo-Pacific security. We can expect China’s influence in Sri Lanka to grow wider, deeper and all-embracing in the coming years. Sri Lanka as the vanguard of the South Asian region is likely to find it difficult to safeguard its national interests as strategic pressures build up in the Indian Ocean.

President Rajapaksa despite his reassuring words to India, has not endeared himself to India in his actions. Under his watch, the trilateral agreement with India and Japan to jointly develop the strategically important Colombo Eastern Container Terminal (ECT) was given up, on specious grounds. The Colombo Port City (CPC) special economic zone coming up in reclaimed land in the heart of Colombo will be controlled by the China Harbour Engineering Co which holds a 99-year lease on 85 percent of the land. It will be overlooking the Colombo port through which 70 percent of India’s container traffic moves. So, India has real concerns as the CPC SEZ would legitimise the presence of the Chinese. It would involve a large influx of Chinese in trade, commerce, logistics, communication, finance, infrastructure and security.

In January 2021, Sri Lanka has approved a Chinese firm – Sinosar Etechwinee Joint Venture – to instal hybrid renewable energy systems in Nainativu, Delft and Analaitivu islands located in Palk Bay, barely 50 km from Tamil Nadu coast.

These Chinese assets can become hotbeds of Chinese intelligence and be used to eavesdrop and interfere with Indian communication, track ship movements and enhance electronic warfare capacity. A greater Indian concern would be their ability to buy influence over Sri Lankan politics and trade to suit China’s goals. India’s growing concerns on these developments are known to Sri Lanka. And India will be factoring these aspects in its relations with the island neighbour.

President Rajapaksa by his own admission has taken a pledge to protect the unity of the country and to safeguard and nurture Buddha Sasana. He is running the country with handpicked military officers heading oversight committees and occupying administrative posts. He has also pardoned military men convicted of criminal acts and dropped cases against armed forces personnel who were being prosecuted for such acts. The democratic polity sees this as a sign of increasing militarisation of the administration.

The COVID-19 pandemic infection has crossed the 400,000-mark by the end of August. The tourism industry, foreign remittances and export trade crippled by the pandemic are yet to recover. This has affected the livelihood of the people, sending prices of essential commodities shooting to the skies. Unmindful of these developments Rajapaksa has introduced some of the most drastic measures, ostensibly for shoring up the sinking economy and creating an environment-friendly society. These include banning the import of chemical fertilisers to popularise the use of organic fertilisers, ban on import of phones and automobiles, which have made life difficult for the citizens.

The US State Department’s recent report on the investment climate in Sri Lanka says: “Sri Lanka is a challenging place to do business with high transaction costs, aggravated by an unpredictable economic policy environment, inefficient delivery of government services, and opaque government procurement practices. Investors noted concerns over the potential for contract repudiation, cronyism, and de facto or de jure expropriation. Public sector corruption is a significant challenge for US firms operating in Sri Lanka and a constraint on foreign investment. While the country generally has adequate laws and regulations to combat corruption, enforcement is weak, inconsistent, and selective.

US stakeholders and potential investors expressed particular concern about corruption in large infrastructure projects and in government procurement. The government pledged to address these issues, but the Covid response remains its primary concern. Historically, the main political parties do not pursue corruption cases against each other after gaining or losing power.”

It is in this complex environment, the 57-year-old Asoka Milinda Moragoda's job as Sri Lanka High Commissioner in New Delhi is going to be a challenging one. The politically savvy Moragoda is a two-term parliamentarian, who had served as a cabinet minister for justice and law reforms under President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

Presumably, his cabinet rank appointment indicates he has the ears of Rajapaksas. He has wide interests and experience in business, government, diplomacy, media and not for profit organisations. Moragoda, an alumnus of the IMD Business School, Lausanne, Switzerland, has come to New Delhi armed with a plan of action.

The action plan titled “Integrated Country Strategy for Sri Lanka Diplomatic Missions in India 2021/2023” contains clear goals, objectives and strategies to be followed by the three Sri Lankan missions in India. Goals include elevating existing bilateral relationship to a strategic level, bolstering foreign investments and earnings from exports, expand strategic cooperation in defence and Indian Ocean security,

The seven objectives given are ambitious. Some are mundane like strengthening bilateral relationships through the exchange of high-level visits and parliamentary diplomacy. Some are novel like promoting greater interaction with the states of India which can resolve long-drawn issues of displaced persons and protecting Sri Lanka’s marine resources (euphemism for resolving a fishing dispute). A few goals are achievable: convene bilateral joint commissions, enhance cooperation in the fields of culture, education and science and technology. So is the goal of enhancing air, sea, electrical grid and digital connectivity.

Though the document is for internal use, he has discussed its content in various interviews with the press both in Sri Lanka and India, perhaps to gain public confidence. However, it can come only when both the countries act together to come up with some quick results. For instance, if Tamil Nadu chief minister can be persuaded to form a consortium of the state industrialists to invest in Northern Province to create employment opportunities for unemployed Tamil youth, it would make it easier for Tamil refugees in India to return home. But with Chinese footprint increasing in the island, will equal opportunities be given to Indian investors? Only, Sri Lanka can reassure them by taking the initiative.

Similarly, enough homework has been done to find ways to resolve the vexing issue of Tamil Nadu fishermen fishing in Sri Lankan waters. What is required is the political will to find an out of the box solution to arrive at a win-win solution.

Sri Lanka cannot wish away the issue of equitable rights for the Tamil minority as it has political connotations in Indian politics. Indo-Sri Lanka Accord 1987, despite its many shortcomings, still remains valid in meeting some of the Tamil aspirations. The 13th amendment to the constitution created provincial councils with limited autonomy. Though President Mahinda Rajapaksa had spoken of implementing a 13A plus, before the Eelam War ended, nothing came of it. It is clear President Gotabaya Rajapaksa does not favour the 13A. Many feel he may do away with it.

If the new Sri Lanka High Commissioner show results in some of these issues, he will be achieving much more than what he contemplates in his ICS document.

Colonel R Hariharan, former MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90

Updated Date:

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