Javier Milei's policy agenda in Argentina includes significant economic reforms, such as reducing government spending, cutting subsidies, and privatizing state-owned companies, which aim to decrease inflation and promote economic growth.

Milei plans to abolish the Central Bank of Argentina and adopt the US dollar as the official currency, a process known as dollarization, which would require Congressional approval and potentially a constitutional change.

He also aims to slash public spending by 15%, reduce fuel and electricity subsidies, and privatize state-led companies, including those in the oil industry, which could lead to job losses and increased poverty.

Milei's economic reforms are inspired by anarcho-capitalist ideology, which emphasizes limited government intervention in the economy, and he has promised to cut bureaucracy and public spending, and to privatize state-owned companies, including YPF.

However, his reforms have generated significant public opposition and protests, with labor unions and opposition parties united against the reforms, citing concerns about the potential risks and challenges associated with these changes, including increased poverty, inequality, and social unrest.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has endorsed Milei's economic plan with a $4.7 billion disbursement, indicating a significant level of support for his reforms, but the conditions for IMF assistance are not explicitly stated, and default remains likely despite the IMF support.

Milei's government has introduced a "mega-decree" that deregulates the economy and amends existing laws, and he has also laid off 5,000 government employees to reduce spending, which could have significant implications for the country's economy and society.

The privatization of state-owned companies, including schools and healthcare, has been met with opposition, citing concerns about the impact on vulnerable populations, and the reforms may push Argentina's economy into an unpredictable future, with potential risks and challenges associated with increased poverty, inequality, and social unrest.

Overall, Milei's economic reforms represent a significant shift towards a more libertarian and market-oriented economy, with both potential benefits and risks, and their impact will depend on the effectiveness of their implementation and the measures taken to mitigate their negative consequences.

Milei's foreign policy aims to alienate Argentina from China, with the president-elect expressing admiration for the US and potentially prioritizing relations with countries that respect freedom, which could have significant implications for the country's economic and diplomatic relationships.

Argentina has no access to international capital markets and relies heavily on China for investment, and Milei's reforms may undermine China's influence in Argentina, potentially putting a $130 billion currency swap agreement between China and Argentina at risk.

The US sees an opportunity to offer an alternative to Chinese trade and investment in Argentina, which could lead to a shift in Argentina's economic relationships, and Milei's government may uncover corrupt practices with Chinese officials, which could lead to further tensions in the relationship.

Milei's presidency poses a challenge to China's economic and diplomatic strategy, with Milei's anti-communist stance differing from China's ideology, and China may lose an important economic partner in Argentina, as Milei threatens to freeze relations with China.

The implementation of Milei's economic reforms will be challenging, given the country's high inflation rate and large debt, and the government will need to navigate these challenges while implementing its economic reforms, which could have a significant impact on Argentina's economy and society.

The IMF officials have called on the next administration to restart the economy quickly, stressing that there is no time for progressive policies in Argentina, and the organization is expected to play a key role in supporting Milei's economic reforms.

However, the conditions for IMF assistance are not explicitly stated, and default remains likely despite the IMF support, and Argentina's economy is valued at $622 billion, with low international reserves, and Milei has promised to abandon the peso and switch to the dollar, which could lead to hyperinflation.

In conclusion, Javier Milei's policy agenda in Argentina includes significant economic reforms, such as dollarization, privatization, and spending cuts, which aim to decrease inflation and promote economic growth, but these reforms have generated significant public opposition and protests, and their impact will depend on the effectiveness of their implementation and the measures taken to mitigate their negative consequences.

The IMF has endorsed Milei's economic plan with a $4.7 billion disbursement, but the conditions for IMF assistance are not explicitly stated, and default remains likely despite the IMF support, and Argentina's economy is valued at $622 billion, with low international reserves, and Milei has promised to abandon the peso and switch to the dollar, which could lead to hyperinflation.

Overall, the success of Milei's economic reforms will depend on the government's ability to navigate the challenges associated with their implementation, and to mitigate the negative consequences for vulnerable populations, and the IMF's support will be crucial in this process.

Javier Milei's policy agenda in Argentina includes significant economic reforms, such as reducing government spending, cutting subsidies, and privatizing state-owned companies, which aim to decrease inflation and promote economic growth.

Title:

Content: Argentine government announces first quarterly surplus since 2008

Javier Milei celebrated the accomplishment, which achieved via a substantial reduction in government spending, including reductions in public works and redistribution to regional governments.

The Argentine government, led by President Javier Milei, announced Monday that it closed the first quarter with a fiscal surplus for the first time since 2008.

Milei broke the news on national television with marked joy. This fiscal surplus of 0.2% of GDP occurs after the first three months under the Libertarian president and his "chainsaw" method against public spending. Since coming to power, as he promised during the campaign, Milei has carried out a policy of heavy cuts to state infrastructure.

“This economic miracle of achieving a quarterly financial surplus after almost 20 years, having inherited the situation that we did, responds to what those who want the failure of this government usually say, to an enormous extent to what we called a 'chainsaw' during the campaign, and not as some say to the liquefaction of public funds, a method that has historically been used in our country," celebrated Milei from the Casa Rosada in Buenos Aires, the president's official residence. “The fiscal surplus is the cornerstone from which we will build Argentina's new era of prosperity,” he added, standing alongside several members of his government.

The fiscal surplus of 0.2% for Argentina represents about $300,000. The accomplishment comes after cuts of almost 75% of state transfers to regional governments in Argentina, as well as halting 90% of public works, and the popular policy of reducing the number of public ministries from 18, as under the previous government, to only nine. Argentine bonds increased in value shortly after the president's announcement.

For Milei, the reduction of public spending and of the large deficit was an obligatory step in his objective of restructuring the Argentine state. The president assured that public deficits cause inflation, his arch nemesis, which in 2023 in Argentina was the highest in the Americas, reaching 211.4% at the end of Alberto Fernández's presidency.

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

Milei plans to abolish the Central Bank of Argentina and adopt the US dollar as the official currency, a process known as dollarization, which would require Congressional approval and potentially a constitutional change.

Title:

Content: Argentina election: Javier Milei's radical proposals face test of reality

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Javier Milei, the anti-establishment politician who cruised to victory in the Argentine presidential election last week, has courted intense controversy with radical, provocative policy proposals and statements.

This led many detractors of the self-styled "anarcho-capitalist" to call his candidacy a "leap into the void".

Now, with the mop-haired president-elect only two weeks away from taking over Latin America's third-largest economy, many are asking, how will his policies and positions face the test of reality?

Taming inflation takes time

Javier Milei had proposed to dollarise the economy and eliminate the Argentine Central Bank as a strategy to "kill" hyper-inflation. This meant making the US dollar the national currency in place of the Argentine peso, whose value, Mr Milei said, had been "melting like blocks of ice in the Sahara".

One obstacle is that ditching the Central Bank and making the US dollar legal tender would need approval from the Argentina's Congress and could even require changing the constitution.

Although Mr Milei convincingly won the presidency, his Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances) movement is barely the third largest political force in Congress. This suggests difficult negotiations might be in store.

Some economists have also questioned whether Mr Milei's plans are feasible, saying they would weaken his government's ability to manage domestic monetary policy.

Having the US dollar as the Argentine currency would effectively leave interest rate policy in the hands of the US Federal Reserve. Argentina's economy would be more vulnerable to external shocks involving the US dollar, for example sudden rises in prices for oil and fuel imports, which could make internal adjustments even more painful inside the country.

Sceptics also point out that Argentina would need to have in hand the US dollars to replace the pesos. Experts believe this could require anywhere between US $35bn to $50bn which indebted Argentina currently does not have and may not be able to borrow easily.

Mr Milei himself has admitted his "shock adjustment" economic stabilisation recipe could actually take up to two years to bring down inflation. "Saying anything else is lying," he said.

A climate sceptic?

Another topic that had made media headlines was Mr Milei's apparent declaration of himself as a climate change "sceptic", that is, someone who denies the role of humans in global warming.

"I do not deny climate change. What I am saying is that there is a temperature cycle in the history of the Earth... Therefore, all those policies that blame humans for climate change are false," Mr Milei said during a presidential debate last month, causing much commentary and criticism.

In his proposed government programme, one of the numerous ministries he had said he planned to axe would be the existing environment ministry.

Such apparent climate scepticism risked putting Mr Milei sharply out of tune with an international majority of governments and leaders who plan to gather at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai soon to seek urgent solutions to the problems of climate change and global warming.

Pragmatism and the Pope

Before he was elected, Mr Milei virulently attacked Argentine Pope Francis, calling him a "Jesuit who promotes communism", and even the "representative of the evil one [the Devil] on Earth".

Such statements caused frictions with the local Catholic Church and the Vatican.

However, this antagonism appeared to miraculously dissipate only days after his election win, when Mr Milei had what he called a "very friendly" phone call with the Pope, whom he addressed as "Your Holiness", inviting him to visit Argentina in 2024.

Asked in a TV interview about this change of heart, Mr Milei conceded that, when one is president, "there are some things that require greater doses of pragmatism".

No break with China and Brazil

Before his election, Milei had signalled he could freeze ties with Brazil and China, Argentina's two top trading partners, on the grounds that he did "not make pacts with communists".

"I am going to be aligned with the United States, Israel, and the free world," he said.

Not surprisingly, this assertion caused consternation in Beijing and Brasilia, as well as in Argentina.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson was quoted as warning that it would be a "huge foreign policy mistake" for Argentina to cut ties with countries such as China and Brazil.

Mr Milei's predecessor, outgoing left-wing President Alberto Fernández, had carefully nurtured ties with Beijing and had welcomed an invitation to join Brics, the China-led group which also comprises Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa.

Experts questioned the wisdom of dismantling a relationship that clearly brought benefits to Argentina, and not only by China being a top market for Argentina's soybean, meat and grains.

China was also helping to prop up Argentina's financial reserves with a major currency swap deal - significant support for a country already heavily indebted to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Days after the election, however, there seemed to be clear signs that no major break in relations was planned. The president-elect received a personal letter of "congratulations and good wishes" from Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr Milei himself made a point of thanking Xi on social media.

Mr Milei's pick for foreign minister, Diana Mondino, also dismissed as "nonsense" any suggestion that there would be a rupture in "commercial relations" with China or Brazil.

In Brazil, Mr Milei's invitation for former President Jair Bolsonaro to attend his 10 December inauguration was interpreted as "unfriendly" towards Brazil's current left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

But Milei has since said Lula would be "well-received", if he wanted to come.

Dictatorship denial

Mr Milei and his vice-presidential running-mate Victoria Villarruel also ignited intense controversy during the campaign with their position regarding Argentina's 1976-83 military dictatorship.

Defying traditional positions held by Argentina's government and society for the last 40 years, Mr Milei caused outrage by contesting the generally accepted estimate of those abducted and "disappeared" in the dictatorship - 30,000 - asserting the actual number was closer to 9,000.

The candidate argued that the political violence of the 1970s in Argentina was a two-sided "war" in which "the forces of the state committed excesses but the terrorists [anti-government guerrillas] ... [also] committed crimes against humanity".

This equivalence of presentation of the two sides raised howls of protest from groups like the Plaza de Mayo mothers and grandmothers of disappeared persons.

This was just another striking way in which the Milei-Villarruel duo were trying to shake up the political status quo in Argentina. The next four years will show if they can do it.

dollarizing the Argentinian currency
closing the central bank

He also aims to slash public spending by 15%, reduce fuel and electricity subsidies, and privatize state-led companies, including those in the oil industry, which could lead to job losses and increased poverty.

Title:

Content: International News

Who Is Javier Milei?

Alex Paszkowicz

Brandishing a chainsaw throughout his electoral campaign, the libertarian and self-proclaimed ‘anarcho-capitalist’ Javier Milei won the Argentine general election on 19th November 2023. Milei’s policies and personality cause controversy, so who is the television pundit turned politician?

Beating his rival Sergio Massa with 14.4 million votes to Massa’s 11.5 million, Milei will begin his 4-year mandate starting on 10th of December. After winning a majority of just 4 out of the twenty-four Argentine provinces, Massa conceded defeat at the Unión por la Patria‘s campaign house before the results were officially published.

The centre-left finance minister admits that “obviously these are not the results we hoped for, and I have spoken to Javier Milei to congratulate him because he’s the president that the majority of Argentines have chosen for the next four years”.

Massa has also hinted that he will retire from front-line politics.

The Peronist political movement has been pushed out of government

Milei’s victory has dismantled the left-wing political establishment, even ending Argentina’s 2-party political system. Created in the 1940s by Juan and Eva Perón, the Peronist political movement has been pushed out of government, despite ruling for sixteen out of the last twenty years. His campaign fell short despite Massa continuously appealing to voters’ fears surrounding Milei’s volatile character and risky economic policies.

Compared with Massa, and judging by the election result, Milei is seen as the lesser of two evils in Argentina, as the previous Peronist government could not provide economic stability.

The third-largest Latin American economy has almost reached inflation of 150%, and 40% of Argentina’s 45 million population is in poverty. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund has rescued the Argentine state twenty-two times, with the most recent loan of $44 billion in 2018.

Milei used his platform […] to circulate conspiracy theories

Economist Sergio Armella believes, “it is indisputable that a swift change from the failed economic policies of the past is imperative. The accumulated economic imbalances have grown too large and must be addressed promptly”.

Nicknamed ‘El Loco’ and before running for president, Milei used his platform on television to circulate conspiracy theories around election fraud and Argentina’s economic problems.

Combined with his extravagant personality and viral TikTok videos, he targeted a younger audience who had grown up through economic hardship and strict Coronavirus lockdowns. Milei’s camp is also known to question the national consensus, which has lasted four decades, over the crimes of its 1976 to 1983 dictatorship, which killed around 30,000 people.

“The reconstruction of Argentina begins” [Milei]

The man with five cloned dogs, each named after a different right-wing economist, claims that with his new mandate, ‘“the reconstruction of Argentina begins”. Calling the result a “miracle” in his victory speech, he says that the result “marks the end of decadence in Argentina”.

He believes Argentina will return to being a “global power”, while alluding to those conspiracies he supported in his past where previous governments, “shared the state amonpoliticians and their friends”.

Although he abandoned his chainsaw to improve his public image, the symbol refers to his promise to decrease inflation by cutting public spending by 15% and privatising state companies, while reducing fuel and electricity subsidies.

Milei wants to abolish the central bank and adopt the US dollar as its official currency, to stop the country from printing more money like previous governments. If the dollar’s value continues to devalue, then inflation could rise with a risk of hyperinflation, which could return after three decades.

Aims to sever ties with China

Milei has no interest in joining the BRICS alliance, and aims to sever ties with China to help move towards privatising state-led companies like the oil industry.

According to economist Elizabeth Bacigalupo, this includes an estimated $10 billion in annual savings on energy imports through a new gas pipeline in Vaca Muerta. Also, this year, the drought in Argentina reduced its agricultural exports from $39 billion in 2022 to $23 billion. But with next year’s predictions, exports could be up to $40 billion.

The problem Milei faces is how fragmented the Argentine Congress is. The coalition he formed with the conservatives after the first round only has 10% of the Senate and 15% of the lower house, meaning he will have to negotiate with his political rivals to push through his complicated reforms.

Any delay in economic progress could lead to more inflation and social unrest.

Despite insults hurled at Brazil’s President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, by Milel throughout his campaign, he wished him support on social media, saying “democracy is the voice of the people and must always be respected”.

Donald Trump believes Milei will “Make Argentina Great Again”

Former US president Donald Trump believes Milei will ‘Make Argentina Great Again’. Businessman Elon Musk expressed a similar sentiment and posted, ‘prosperity is ahead for Argentina’.

Reactions from Milei supporters are varied, with voters desperate for change. A supporter named Michelle Chelsea in Buenos Aires says, “economic policies have led us to this situation. Today, more than half of the population has voted for a different option, and I hope that things will change a lot”.

A Food Service Worker, Alejandro Bravo, is hopeful for the future. “It’s an incredible joy. It’s the end of a never-ending decline, so to corrupt politicians, we say, “get lost”‘.

“We’ve had enough corruption, enough insecurity, enough inflation, enough poverty. We were very tired, we wanted something new, we wanted to see new faces”, states supporter Barbara Rubin.

Alex Paszkowicz

Featured image courtesy of Angelica Reyes via Unsplash. Image license found here. No changes were made to this image.

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How will Milei's reforms impact workers?

Milei's economic reforms are inspired by anarcho-capitalist ideology, which emphasizes limited government intervention in the economy, and he has promised to cut bureaucracy and public spending, and to privatize state-owned companies, including YPF.

Title:

Content: November 20, 2023

Finally, when the results of Argentina’s presidential election became clear on Monday (November 20, 2023), the result was not at all surprising. However, the margin of victory was definitely there, and it is nothing less than a political earthquake.

Fed up with seemingly perennial economic malaise, lurking annual inflation hovering around 143% and widespread poverty affecting 40% of the population, Argentines turned in large numbers to 53-year-old economist and right-wing outsider Javier Miley.

The man often described by his critics and opponents as “El Loco”, or the mad man, came to power by winning a record 56% of the public run-off vote against Sergio Massa, an outgoing government minister and leftist rival. , with 44. ,

He won 20 of the country’s 23 provinces. Even the country’s capital, Buenos Aires, gave him preference over his rival and in some provinces Milley got as much as 70% of the votes.

His economic policies, many of which may be too strange for some, will undoubtedly be scrutinized ahead of his inauguration on December 10, 2023. But Miley’s core mission of “kicking the Keynesians and collectivists” may be paying off. He.

In addition to pledging to cut bureaucracy (a favorite of his fan base), the president-elect has also promised to “blow up” the central bank to stop it from printing more money, which he says is Argentina’s Increasing uncontrolled inflation. To mark some of the things said on the campaign trail. He also wants to abandon the local currency – the peso – in favor of the US dollar.

Will El Loco compromise Argentina’s energy policy?

Miley has also promised to cut public spending and privatize state-owned companies, which has inevitably increased interest in the energy world. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Argentina has the world’s second largest reserves of shale gas and the fourth largest reserves of shale oil worldwide.

In 2022, Argentina produced 706,000 barrels (bpd) of oil and 308 tcf of natural gas in its Vaca Muerta shale formation. The flag bearers of Argentina’s hydrocarbon wealth are the state-owned oil companies YPF and Ensarsa.

More from ForbesHow billions of dollars of investment in AI are fueling innovation in the oil and gas sectorMore from ForbesScaling technology and will is key to ‘fast-tracking’ global energy transition

Miley confirmed his intention to privatize YPF in statements following his election victory. That caused New York-listed shares of YPF (NYSE: YPF) to jump 39% from Friday’s closing price of $10.78 to $15 on Monday (15:00 PM EDT).

However, Miley also told Argentinian broadcasters that before privatizing YPF, his administration would have to “reconstruct” it. The President-elect did not specify how long it would take or what kind of streamlining of operations and processes he had in mind. The market will undoubtedly pounce on them as the details emerge.

It appears that luck is also somewhat on the incoming President’s side. In a desperate attempt to curb crippling energy imports, his predecessor built pipeline infrastructure to monetize Vaca Muerta’s natural gas.

After an economically distressful and nearly 20-year long hiatus, energy exports have finally increased, including to neighboring Chile. In 2022, Argentina had an energy deficit of $5 billion and the current year is probably an exercise in balancing. But government data points to an energy surplus of $4 billion in 2024.

Depending on market direction, windfall profits could ultimately amount to $20 billion by 2030. Many people, perhaps including Miley herself, are hoping that Argentina’s energy exports will also help reduce the country’s overall trade deficit.

And the president-elect, who is proud to declare himself a climate skeptic, has also promised to free Argentina’s energy industry from red tape. This broad omnibus pledge appears to range from closing the country’s Ministry for the Environment and Sustainable Development to encouraging private sector investment in renewables, if there is a buyer.

There are also high hopes that efforts to explore for commercially viable oil and gas in the Falkland Islands – a British overseas territory 300 miles off Argentina’s southern coast, which Buenos Aires claims – could be more favorable and cordial. .

The two countries went to war over the islands in 1982, during the UK premiership of the “Iron Lady” Margaret Thatcher. A British expeditionary force recaptured the islands in June 1982, following a brief occupation by Buenos Aires following the Argentine invasion of the islands in April.

Successive leftist Argentine governments in recent decades have used the controversy for political gain, but Miley caused a political stir earlier this month by describing Thatcher as “one of humanity’s great leaders” in a televised debate. Created a stir.

While Miley, in line with many predecessors, still views Argentina’s sovereignty over the islands as “non-negotiable”, his tone is likely to be more cordial and could promote a gentler level of economic dialogue.

Don’t forget lithium

It is often said in politics that timing is everything and the broader energy complex also seems to be in Miley’s favor. According to the US Geological Survey, Argentina has the world’s second largest lithium reserves, estimated at 20 million tonnes.

Domestic production of the metal, vital to the world’s energy transition, is growing rapidly, and could reach 120,000 tonnes/year in 2024 (from current levels of about 60,000 tonnes/year). Miley’s encouragement of private sector investment could further up the game with about 40 projects under development in three active mines.

The only major detail in the energy policy actions is that Miley spent his entire presidential campaign attacking almost Argentina’s entire political class and politicians, especially those on the left.

But his party has very few seats in Argentina’s Congress. Despite her powerful mandate, Miley will now have to negotiate with the very people she attacked during the campaign to advance her agenda. This will not be easy. Although it is too early to say how this will all play out, there are solid grounds for cautious optimism.

However, his reforms have generated significant public opposition and protests, with labor unions and opposition parties united against the reforms, citing concerns about the potential risks and challenges associated with these changes, including increased poverty, inequality, and social unrest.

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Argentina’s Javier Milei Is Looking To Bluff His Political Rivals

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And just like that, Argentina’s ultra-libertarian president, Javier Milei, sent the whole socio-political-economic ecosystem into disarray

Praised for his moderation and pragmatism during the first few weeks of his presidency, the self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist has now put in place a series of controversial measures which have divided public opinion, generating a new iteration of Argentina’s infamous “grieta,” our very own version of the polarization that has now become the norm across the so-called ‘Western World.’ But, it’s no longer about the antagonism between Kirchnerites and their opponents, mainly represented by Mauricio Macri and the Juntos por el Cambio coalition, but about those blindly in favor of the wild-haired economist and those denouncing his every move as a diabolic, anti-democratic part of a ferocious plan to tear down the tenets of Argentine society.

Both sides seem to agree that he is executing a carefully crafted plan that will either elevate Argentina back to the lost status of “global power” of the late 19th century or ravage the nation in order put it on the chopping-block and conduct a fire sale to hand over the crown jewels to global financial elites. Those with access to the Casa Rosada tell a different story though, one of amateurism and incomplete staffing that would suggest the La Libertad Avanza coalition is acting more out of necessity than Machiavellian genius.

Milei finally broke out of his honeymoon period with those who didn’t vote for him after launching a massive package of reforms through a “decreto de necesidad y urgencia,” an emergency decree (DNU) which has become the standard practice for presidents seeking to bypass Congress and is generally used for less ambitious projects. The DNU is truly massive, with 366 articles including the repeal of multiple laws which call into question the constitutionality of the measure, even if governing via DNU is already contrary to the spirit of the Constitution and something that has happened in each of the last several administrations. It was quickly followed by the Omnibus law, equally as massive in its scope and ambition, and its capacitiy to divide the political field.

Put together by liberal economist Federico Sturzenegger, who ran the Central Bank under Macri and helds no role in the Milei-Villaruel administration until after the project was presented, the “mega-decree” was announced by national (and obligatory) broadcast several weeks in a dramatic scene that had Milei as the protagonist in the foreground and his whole team standing behind, statue-like, as the president read sternly.

Earlier that day they had scored a political victory with Security Minister Patricia Bullrich’s “anti-picket” protocol making its debut, effectively diluting the first public protest against the government. Some reports indicated there was more security than 'piquetero' protesters. Weeks later, the General Confederation of Labor united the pan-Peronist opposition in a massive march that managed to remain cordial, respecting Bullrich's protocol by trying to show political muscle in the streets.

The reform package conformed by DNU and Omnibus bill immediately generated the reaction of Milei's political opponents, along with a substantial portion of the population who took to the streets for a traditional “cacerolazo,” a protests with pots and pans reminiscent of the worst days of the 2001 crisis. There are no coincidences. Congressional leaders from the pan-Peronist Unión por la Patria coalition spoke with union strongmen from the General Confederation of Labor (CGT) umbrella union group. Members of the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) warned of unconstitutionality and specialist lawyers indicated Milei was trampling all over the Constitution by failing to respect the separation of powers. Buenos Aires Province governor Axel Kicillof, probably the leading member of the Peronist opposition, and his government decided to ignore Bullrich’s “anti-picket” protocol claiming it violated the constitutional right to protest. A few weeks before, Economy Minister Luis ‘Toto’ Caputo unveiled the government’s initial economic plan, generating a similar reaction in the political field which didn’t seem to make its way to the general population. The situation is beginning to change and as the actual implications of the Milei administration’s actions make an impact, social and political actors will begin to respond.

There should be few doubts that one of the strongest points of La Libertad Avanza’s electoral strategy had to do with communications, particularly on social media. These early moves suggest they will try and double down, betting on the use of their skills to try and compensate for the lack of political support, despite a strong victory over both Sergio Massa and the Peronists, and Bullrich and Juntos por el Cambio. Toto Caputo, however, is known to be particularly uncomfortable with the media. His pre-recorded message several weeks ago announcing tough economic measures — many of which contradicted Milei’s campaign promises, particularly tax hikes — was delayed several times reportedly due to the need for multiple takes and Milei’s direct involvement (or maybe indirectly through sister Karina). The second measure he announced, for example, was a year-long reduction of government advertising to zero – a direct strike to the beleaguered media industry and a measure that has practically zero impact on the deficit but high popular approval. The over-dramatization of the security operation to contain a moderate-to-small protest early into the presidency, together with pictures of Milei and Bullrich supervising from police headquarters, allowed them to take advantage of the far-left Partido Obrero to score an easy win and show his electorate that they can control the streets. Yet, controlling a couple of thousand protesters is one thing. The CGT protest that brought together the political and social power of the unions remained under control, and that's a win for the government, but it was a political protest. If the middle class begins to lose its temper, and expectations, Milei could face a much more difficult scenario.

The “basis for the reconstruction of the Argentine economy” reform package could be another attempt to win the communications game and take the spotlight to appear active in the eyes of the public opinion. With absolute minorities in both chambers of Congress and several controversial reforms included in a massive package passed by Milei’s mega-DNU, it's difficult to imagine that it will quickly pass in the Chamber of Deputies, despite an early win at the commission level with the help of the former Juntos por el Cambio coalition. Furthermore, several interest groups are putting together legal arguments to dispute the issue in court, especially the labor reform which has been stayed. It could quickly make its way to a Supreme Court that has already proven eager to interject politically.

Ultimately, most, if not all, of the regulations, laws, and measures included in the decree will have to make their way through Congress and will therefore be subject to negotiations and amendments. Yet, Milei has shown initiative and wants to maintain, or extend, the popular support which took him to victory in the run-off and has already generated a circumstantial majority in the Senate to defeat the Peronist caucus and at the commissions to get the Omnibus bill past the first obstacle.

There are risks that the ultra-libertarian could prove authoritarian and anti-democratic. He’s shown some of that in the past, particularly by claiming he would govern by plebiscite if he didn’t have the support of Congress (something Hugo Chávez did to amend the Venezuelan constitution) and by picking a dictatorship denialist as his running-mate. Many of his detractors have pointed to signs that suggest Argentina could descend into a state of totalitarianism, and this emergency decree fuels their suspicion.

It’s not clear whether the conditions for such a situation are in place. For now, he seems to be bluffing his political opponents. We’ll see if someone calls his hand.

This piece was originally published in the Buenos Aires Times, Argentina's only English-language newspaper.

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How will Milei's reforms impact workers?

Who has opposed Milei's proposed layoff order?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has endorsed Milei's economic plan with a $4.7 billion disbursement, indicating a significant level of support for his reforms, but the conditions for IMF assistance are not explicitly stated, and default remains likely despite the IMF support.

Title:

Content: BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — President Javier Milei of Argentina kicked off a visit Wednesday to the United States, where he'll meet with tech billionaire Elon Musk, as his government seeks an infusion of cash to overhaul Argentina's embattled economy.

The populist president started his four-day trip in Miami, home to one of the largest populations of Argentines in the U.S., where he received an honor from the Jewish community Wednesday at an Orthodox synagogue. Milei will meet with Musk on Friday in Texas, his spokesperson said, where he will also tour a factory for Tesla, Musk's electric car company.

Milei's third trip to the U.S. in merely four months as president comes as he reshapes Argentine foreign policy in line with Washington. Standing beside Gen. Laura Richardson, head of the U.S. Southern Command, at the southernmost tip of South America last week, Milei vowed to boost the nations' ''strategic alliance'' — underscoring how he sees U.S. support as vital to the economic overhaul on which he has staked his presidency.

''We took advantage to present a new foreign doctrine for Argentina,'' Milei wrote Wednesday on social media platform X of his meeting with Richardson. In the same post, apparently directed at Musk — a self-declared free speech absolutist — Milei said he promoted ''true freedom of expression'' and slammed journalists critical of his administration as trying to ''stop us from speaking."

''We are not going to remain silent in the face of slander, insult or defamation,'' he wrote.

Milei's plan to drastically cut public spending has inflicted economic pain and encountered resistance in a nation where annual inflation tops 276%. On Wednesday, police forcibly dispersed anti-government protestors blocking a main Buenos Aires artery.

Not only is the U.S. the biggest investor in Argentina, it also has the most influence over the International Monetary Fund, to which Argentina owes $42 billion. The IMF has endorsed Milei's shock therapy for Argentina, agreeing to disburse $4.7 billion from a bailout package the country took out six years ago.

The State Department's investment climate statement last year noted ''capital controls, trade restrictions, and price controls'' as factors hampering investors in Argentina. Milei has vowed to roll back those interventionist policies with market-oriented changes favored by business leaders, like Musk, one of the world's richest men who leads rocket company SpaceX, social media platform X and Tesla.

Milei and Musk — who both share a brash personality-driven style and distaste for government overreach — have expressed mutual admiration. Ahead of his inauguration last December, Milei praised Musk as an ''icon of freedom in the world." Musk gushed over Milei's speech lambasting socialism at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, commenting ''So hot'' with a meme of a couple having sex while watching Milei speak.

With its vast lithium reserves, Argentina has much to offer Musk, a dominant player in the electric auto industry who has dubbed the metal, an indispensable ingredient in electric car batteries, "the new oil."

Milei's free-market policies have raised hopes in the U.S. that the metal and other badly needed raw materials can be extracted closer to the U.S., breaking China's dominance of the battery supply chain. The Biden administration said it was exploring investment opportunities in Argentine lithium earlier this year.

Milei's government has introduced a "mega-decree" that deregulates the economy and amends existing laws, and he has also laid off 5,000 government employees to reduce spending, which could have significant implications for the country's economy and society.

Title:

Content: Updated 21 mins ago - Economy

Argentine President Milei's plan to remake the economy with a wrecking ball

If your economy is broken, you can try to fix it — or you can essentially just throw it in the trash and try to build something new from scratch.

Why it matters: The latter is, broadly, the plan of anarcho-capitalist Argentine president Javier Milei, while the former is the plan of Zambian president Hakainde Hichilema.

Where it stands: Milei came in like a wrecking ball after he took office in December. He slashed the official value of the currency in half, introduced a "mega-decree" scrapping 366 separate rules, and laid off 5,000 government employees.

  • Alejandro Werner, the former head of the International Monetary Fund's Western Hemisphere department, explains that this course of "shock therapy" carries enormous risks, both to the upside and the downside.
  • The devaluation, at least for the next few months, increases the Argentine inflation rate, which was over 200% in 2023. Milei's budget cuts will also cause a plunge in household income, as well as a deep recession.
  • The economic pain will embolden Milei's opposition — including in the courts, which have already suspended many of his early decrees. A general strike is planned for Wednesday.

What we're watching: Werner is hopeful that Congress will be at least minimally cooperative, that a good agricultural harvest will help replenish foreign reserves, and that inflation will fall to an annualized rate of 50% by the end of the year.

  • Argentina being Argentina, however, Werner notes, it's entirely possible that Milei's opponents in Congress will block most of his policies and devastating hyperinflation will result.

Reality check: Argentina's action stands in stark contrast to the zugzwang in Zambia, which is trying to restructure the old-fashioned way. There, creditors find themselves in a standoff without any obvious resolution — and where even the IMF seems powerless to move things forward.

Between the lines: Milei was quite the toast of the Davos elite this week, notwithstanding the fact that he's on the record calling climate change "a socialist lie."

  • "The Argentine economy is in such bad shape that it has to be shaken up. President Milei and his team are doing exactly that," said IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva in a CNN interview.
  • Milei returned the favor, saying that the CEOs assembled for his speech were "social benefactors" and "heroes."
  • "Let no one tell you that your ambition is immoral," he added.

The bottom line: For the time being, Milei seems to be able to draw on a wellspring of support and goodwill from the international community.

  • The IMF has restarted its program in the country, which means $4.7 billion in international funds have been unlocked and default isn't imminent.
  • All the same, Argentina's bonds are still trading at roughly the same level as those of Spirit Airlines. Some kind of default remains more likely than not — just pitched as part of a bold recovery plan, rather than being draped in anti-creditor rhetoric.
Go deeper

How will Milei's reforms impact workers?

The privatization of state-owned companies, including schools and healthcare, has been met with opposition, citing concerns about the impact on vulnerable populations, and the reforms may push Argentina's economy into an unpredictable future, with potential risks and challenges associated with increased poverty, inequality, and social unrest.

Title:

Content: Argentina ’ s Trump was elected to scrap the central bank ’ s switch to the US dollar and freeze relations with China
▲ Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei will take office on December 10. (Photo / Dazhi Images / Associated Press)
Journalist Wu Mei-yi / Comprehensive Report
Argentina ’ s president-elect Javier Milei, who is set to take office on December 10, has been described as an “irate far-right liberal ” and has even been dubbed“ Argentina ’ s Trump ”, vowing to fight inflation and carry out sweeping reforms, calling for the abolition of the central bank ’ s switch to the dollar, the abolition of most government ministries, the legalization of organ trade, and the freezing of relations with China.
But its victory has been praised by rightists around the world, and even Tesla CEO Musk is very optimistic.
On the night of his victory, Mirai won with 56% of the vote, far ahead of his center-left rival Sergio Massa ’ s 44%, declaring, “Today, the reconstruction of Argentina begins. ”
That night, however, the streets of Buenos Aires were filled with joy, celebration, worry and anger, with supporters excited and looking forward to the changes ahead, while leftists expressed shock and frustration.
Mirei has promised major reforms to address the “tragic reality ” of Argentina, where up to 40% of its 45 million citizens are trapped in poverty and inflation has soared to 140%.
But the Guardian says he could push South America ’ s second-largest economy into an unpredictable and potentially volatile future.
▲ Mirei supporters took to the streets to celebrate, but many people expressed concern and frustration.
(Photo / Dazhi Imaging / Associated Press)
The 53-year-old promised tax cuts, the abolition of the central bank, the abandonment of the peso to the dollar, the abolition of government ministries from 18 to 8, the phasing out of social welfare programs, and the severing of ties with two major trading partners, Brazil and China.
He opposes abortion and euthanasia, supports legalization of the sex trade, drug trade, and organ trade, and wants to privatize schools and the health care system.
Mirei was also described as eccentric, with many radical ideas, who denied the impact of climate change and questioned the history of the autocratic government ’ s crackdown on dissidents from 1976 to 1983, which killed 30,000 people and angered millions.
However, Mirei ’ s victory was also congratulated by far-right figures around the world.
Former US President Trump tweeted, "The world is watching! I am very proud of you."
You will turn your country upside down and really make Argentina great again.
“Argentina ’ s prosperity lies ahead, ” said X boss and Tesla CEO, Jair Bolsonaro, a former president of Brazil, calling it a triumph of“ honesty, progress and freedom, ” and “hope shines again in South America. ”
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What does Milei promote in terms of healthcare and education?

Overall, Milei's economic reforms represent a significant shift towards a more libertarian and market-oriented economy, with both potential benefits and risks, and their impact will depend on the effectiveness of their implementation and the measures taken to mitigate their negative consequences.

Title:

Content: Millie is facing the minefield of the economy, politics and society of Argentina
Argentina ’ s president-elect Javier Milley ’ s sweeping reform package overcame the first parliamentary hurdle, winning public approval on the third day of debate in the House of Representatives, while the initiative, which included economic, social and political areas, sparked strong protests from the opposition and the Argentine street.
Argentina has been embroiled in a long-running conflict with severe economic crises that have led its citizens to turn their attention to Mili, who won a resounding victory in last October ’ s election.
As a result of public discontent over decades of economic instability, with annual inflation surpassing the 200 percent threshold and poverty levels rising to 40 percent, Milley embarked on a “bold path to redefining Argentina ’ s future. ”
Massive opposition.
Tens of thousands took to the streets in defiance of Milley ’ s austerity measures, which included cuts to the balance sheet.
The demonstrations disrupted parliamentary debates, leading to confrontations between law enforcement forces and protesters.
Police fired rubber bullets and tear gas, and sprayed protesters with water cannons, with reports of injuries and arrests among protesters.
The leftist opposition withdrew from parliament, denouncing what it saw as a severe police crackdown on protesters.
Opposition MP Mariano del Canio told the AP that "we can't work this way", stressing that protesters should be heard before they return to the hearing after a period of suspension.
Parliamentary manoeuvres
In a strategic move to bolster his program, Milley secured IMF approval to disburse nearly $4.7 billion to Argentina.
The package of reforms, dubbed Omnibus, spans across different sectors, from electoral and cultural reforms to privatization, penal code amendments, and changes to the status of football clubs.
The House of Representatives, by 144 votes to 109, granted general approval, paving the way for the next phase of negotiations in the Senate.
The bill ’ s 664 clauses, which sum up the complex fabric of Melli ’ s reforms, will be subject to close scrutiny and possible amendments.
Although the House of Representatives has generally approved Melli ’ s reform bill, negotiations are on the horizon.
The complex details of the bill, which include economic, administrative, criminal and environmental areas, will be subject to strict scrutiny, according to a pro-plan parliamentary description.
Lawmakers, some of whom have expressed reservations about specific articles on privatizing state companies and delegating legislative powers to the president, are due to participate in detailed discussions.
Milley ’ s challenge is not just to overcome ideological differences, but to build consensus within a fragmented political landscape.
The upcoming recess will provide a break before crucial negotiations resume, marking a pivotal stage in Milley ’ s ambitious agenda for his program.
Millie's presidency is at a crossroads.
Milley ’ s presidency, marked by libertarian principles and capitalist ideals, faces the complex challenge of balancing economic liberalization with societal expectations.
Austerity measures and privatization plans were not without opposition, leading to protests and even a general strike.
The president ’ s swift measures, including a 50 percent devaluation of the peso, cuts in subsidies, and deep cuts in ministries, reflect his confrontational approach to tackling the government ’ s budget deficit and fighting inflation.
However, these actions have aroused resentment, as protesters have questioned the potential impact on the most vulnerable groups in society.
The course of Melli's reforms will shape the country's economic and social landscape.
Experts say that the fine line between government initiatives, parliamentary negotiations and street reactions highlights the multifaceted nature of Argentina ’ s current socio-political reality.
As Argentina grapples with historic economic challenges, observers expect Milley ’ s presidency to be a decisive chapter, with the split between economic liberalization and social welfare taking center stage with every decision that resonates in the corridors of power and crowded streets.
Source: Al Jazeera + Associated Press

Milei's foreign policy aims to alienate Argentina from China, with the president-elect expressing admiration for the US and potentially prioritizing relations with countries that respect freedom, which could have significant implications for the country's economic and diplomatic relationships.

Title:

Content: Sections
Materials
"We don't make deals with communists."
Will Argentina and the United States be friends against China?
Olga Shevchenko
For Argentina, which has no access to international capital markets and where inflation topped 200% last year, China remains the most important investor and lender.
What can the United States offer in return?
It is unlikely that Argentina, which is a serial defaulter, will be granted a loan.
But they can give the F-16 and the status of a partner of NATO.
Javier Miley ’ s presidential campaign in Argentina was one-of-a-kind, from the chainsaw he waved at rallies to his promise to create a market for human organs.
He shouted "Long live freedom!" to the heated crowd and called his own cloned dogs his closest advisers.
These antics, however, overshadowed the most radical point in Miley ’ s platform — a foreign policy aimed at alienating Argentina from its main trading partner, China.
Focus translated Benjamin Gedan ’ s article on the importance of Argentina joining the United States in confronting China.
Throughout his winning campaign, the country ’ s new far-right president, a libertarian economist, made it clear that he would not be a friend of Xi Jinping.
“We don ’ t make deals with the Communists, ” Miley said in an August interview with Bloomberg Television, putting China on a par with Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela and North Korea.
Now that Miley is in power, this policy promises to fundamentally change Argentina ’ s international relations, raises the possibility of an economy-catastrophic diplomatic clash between Buenos Aires and Beijing, and provides the United States with an unexpected opportunity to offer an alternative to Chinese trade and investment.
The stakes in a region where China ’ s influence has soared in recent decades and local elites have no incentive to take sides in the U.S.-China rivalry are higher than ever.
Washington should make the most of this opportunity and demonstrate the benefits of cooperation with America.
A brief reference
Miley ’ s remarks surprised many in a region where not joining the growing rivalry between the United States and China has become a tenet of faith.
Trade between Latin America and China has grown rapidly since 2000, reaching $450 billion a year.
Beijing is also investing heavily in the region, both public and private.
The China Development Bank and the China Export-Import Bank have provided $136 billion in loans to Latin America over the past two decades.
It is therefore not surprising that the United States has found few supporters of its idea of secession from China.
President Donald Trump ’ s first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, has warned U.S. neighbors about China ’ s “imperial ” ambitions.
His successor, Mike Pompeo, followed a similar tone, going to Panama to highlight China ’ s “predatory economic activity. ”
In November, at a meeting of Latin American leaders at the White House, President Joe Biden expressed alarm about China ’ s “debt trap diplomacy. ”
Latin American leaders clearly hold a different view.
Last year, Honduras severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan in favor of official ties with China.
This followed similar decisions by Costa Rica in 2007, Panama in 2017, El Salvador and the Dominican Republic in 2018 and Nicaragua in 2021.
Today, Latin America and the Caribbean accounts for seven of Taiwan ’ s 12 remaining diplomatic partners.
In October, the presidents of Chile and Colombia met with Xi in Beijing, where Colombia and China upgraded their relationship to a “strategic partnership. ”
Both presidents are leftist, but conservatives in the region have also sought to favor China.
These include then Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso, a former banker who signed a free trade agreement with China in May.
A total of 21 countries in the region have joined the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.
So far, this has been particularly true for Argentina, which is the fourth-largest recipient of loans from Chinese banks — a total of $17 billion.
China is the country ’ s second largest export market after Brazil, filling cargo ships on the Paraná River with huge consignments of Argentine corn, soybeans and wheat.
The multi-billion dollar credit line of the People ’ s Bank of China has become a major source of hard currency, helping to pay off imports and repay debts to the International Monetary Fund.
For Argentina, which has no access to international capital markets and where inflation topped 200% last year, China remains indispensable.
In return, Argentina agreed to host a space station in Patagonia run by the People's Liberation Army; offered to use Chinese technology for its next nuclear reactor; expressed interest in buying fighters developed by China and Pakistan; and explored the possibility of building a Chinese port in Tierra del Fuego in the strategic Beagle Strait.
China is a major investor in Argentina ’ s booming lithium industry.
Surprisingly, in 2016, the Argentine Coast Guard sank a Chinese fishing vessel illegally working at sea.
However, Argentina usually pays homage to Beijing.
In 2021, Miley ’ s predecessor, center-left Alberto Fernandez, celebrated the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party, recalling the friendship of Juan Peron and Mao Zedong.
New turn
However, Miley seems ready to put these relations in jeopardy.
While in power, he is not so straightforward in expressing his rejection of China, reluctantly accepting trade and investment relations with that country.
During his inauguration, he amicably exchanged greetings with a senior Chinese diplomat and responded amicably to Xi ’ s congratulatory letter.
However, Miley does not hide his real preferences.
After a meeting at the White House in November, he said Argentina ’ s foreign policy would prioritize “countries that respect freedom. ”
Given Miley ’ s conservatism and his combative and improvisational leadership style, a diplomatic crisis seems increasingly likely.
In just two months in office, he rejected an invitation to join the Chinese-led BRICS bloc in favor of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, called the Colombian president a “communist killer ” and promised to move Argentina ’ s embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Even among Western friends, he looks like an elephant in a china shop.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Miley criticized his colleagues for betraying capitalist principles.
China's Dilemma
For China, the Miley represents a diplomatic challenge.
China has a big appetite for Argentinian exports of agricultural products and minerals, but Xi is known for not turning the other cheek.
China imposed infamous economic sanctions on Australia for criticizing China ’ s mistreatment of the COVID-19 pandemic, and then did the same with Lithuania over Taiwan.
When Brazil ’ s former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro thought about excluding Chinese company Huawei from its 5G wireless network, China threatened to refuse to supply vaccines against COVID.
(He carried out this threat in Paraguay, Taiwan ’ s only diplomatic partner in South America.)
In recent years, Xi has sought to soften the image of China, which has suffered as a result of the pandemic and aggressive “wolf-warrior diplomacy. ”
In Latin America, Xi does not seem to pay attention to the ideologies of presidents and is friends with both conservatives and leftist leaders.
Betting on charm has yielded mixed results.
According to the Pew Research Center, almost half of Brazilians have a negative attitude towards China, the same can be said about a third of Argentines.
In addition, Chinese investment in the region has evaporated in recent years, even as the maturity of previous loans is coming to an end.
However, Xi does not show much tolerance for Miley.
A few days before his inauguration, the Global Times, the newspaper of the Communist Party of China, published an interview with an Argentine economist entitled “The best approach for Argentina is never to take sides. ”
China later expressed disapproval of a meeting (subsequently denied) between Argentina ’ s new foreign minister and Taiwan ’ s senior diplomat in Buenos Aires, leading to fears of a possible freeze on China ’ s credit line.
The experience of the last conservative president of Argentina, Mauricio Macri, is instructive.
Although Macri was more courteous than Miley, at the beginning of his presidency he stirred up Beijing by promising to strengthen ties with Washington, to unveil secret agreements between China and Argentina, and to revisit priority Chinese projects, including two controversial dams in the remote province of Santa Cruz.
In response, China reportedly threatened to suspend other infrastructure investments, including an unrelated railway project, which exemplified the use of unusual cross default and cross cancellation clauses in its overseas contracts.
Macri eventually gave in, and it ’ s entirely possible that Miley would also avoid discord with China.
At the same time, Miley is reputedly much less disciplined and much more ideological than the former businessman and center-right Macri.
Tensions with China could have significant repercussions for Argentina.
In response to Argentina ’ s western pivot, China could restrict access to its market for Argentine food exports, suspend the credit line, stop negotiating a free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc, cut investment in infrastructure and minerals, and impose other economic sanctions.
Examples of such economic coercion are numerous.
Just this month, Ecuador postponed plans to hand over Russian-made military equipment to Ukraine after Russia threatened to boycott Ecuadorian bananas, one of its main industries.
What about America?
Paradoxically, Miley is a test for the United States as well.
His undisguised admiration led to inflated expectations of support for the ailing Argentine economy.
Argentina's needs are manifold and not easy to meet.
The United States, for example, is unlikely to lend to Argentina, which is a serial defaulter.
Nor is it expected that they will equal the multibillion-dollar mega-projects that China is implementing under the Belt and Road Initiative, such as the construction of railways and dams.
American farmers and pastoralists compete with their counterparts in Argentina, so the United States will not replace China as a major export market.
Finally, Biden does not have as much influence as Xi does in private sector decision-making, and American companies are understandably wary of investing in Argentina.
Disagreements in politics could be another stumbling block, at least for Biden.
Miley calls climate change a “socialist lie, ” opposes abortion rights and gun control, and is loved by far-right figures including Trump, Tucker Carlson and Viktor Orban.
On February 24, he spoke at the Conference of Conservative Policy Initiatives and enthusiastically embraced Trump behind the scenes.
Miley has already tested the Biden administration by trying to control protests in a country accustomed to protesters obstructing traffic and flooding public squares across the capital.
The new government already had several opportunities to demonstrate its approach, including during a nationwide strike in January.
His harsh reaction drew criticism from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights.
Miley also showed contempt for his opponents in Congress, calling lawmakers who voted against his proposed reforms "traitors" and suggesting that he would be able to rule the country through executive orders.
Such behavior could lead to attempts to impose conditions for supporting Argentina to avoid a repetition of the US Cold War policy in the region, where the logic of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend ” led to blind support for repressive anti-communist regimes.
This was also true in Argentina, where the United States supported a military regime of “dirty war ” that killed an estimated 30,000 people between 1976 and 1983.
During his encouraging visit to Buenos Aires on February 23, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken rightly hinted at possible disagreements.
Standing next to Argentina ’ s foreign minister at a press conference, he highlighted Argentina ’ s “strong and long history in the field of labor rights, women ’ s and girls ’ rights, and human rights more broadly. ”
If Argentina fails to meet these challenges, or if its democratic institutions are threatened by an authoritarian president, the White House should reconsider its approach.
Violent treatment of peaceful demonstrators or intimidation of legislators, judges or journalists should be considered triggers.
Influence of USA
For now, however, the United States is trying to act in the old way.
That's the right idea.
After all, such love for the US in Buenos Aires has not been felt since the early 1990s, when the administration of President Carlos Menem sought “carnal relations. ”
Biden seconded his energy secretary to Miley's inauguration and later sent his deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs to Argentina.
For his part, Blinken promised that “the people of Argentina can count on us as long as you work to stabilize their economy. ”
The United States has reportedly given the go-ahead for the sale of F-16 aircraft to Argentina, a long-standing request previously rejected by Britain over fears of a new invasion of the Falkland Islands.
Under Menem, the United States included Argentina on its list of “major non-NATO allies, ” and there is now talk of including that country among NATO ’ s official partners (Colombia is the only country in the region that currently holds this title).
The White House is also looking for ways to incentivize purchases of Argentine lithium for electric vehicle batteries, although the inflation reduction law favors minerals for batteries produced and processed domestically or in countries that have signed a free trade agreement with the United States.
NASA has expressed interest in training an Argentine astronaut to fly to the International Space Station.
But the United States must go further and faster.
While Argentina is curbing excessive public spending, the U.S. government must take steps to build infrastructure to significantly expand food and energy production and include Argentina in U.S. clean energy supply chains.
A lot depends on the US strategy towards Argentina.
Even the active support of Argentina from the United States will not be able to compensate for the deterioration of Argentina ’ s relations with Beijing – China will remain an influential player in this country.
However, if the United States helps stabilize Argentina ’ s economy, it will present it as a trusted friend heading South America ’ s second-largest economy.
It will also demonstrate the value of partnering with the US for presidents willing to resist the temptations of China ’ s huge market and pocket-stuffing.
On the other hand, the refusal to support Miley during this difficult period, when deep budget cuts and rampant inflation are undermining his popularity, will serve as a negative signal, reinforcing the desire for non-alignment throughout the Western Hemisphere.
About the author
Benjamin N. Gedan (@ benjamingedan) is a Ph.D., director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Science Center, associate professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and former director of the South America Division at the National Security Council in the Obama administration.

What are some of the "liberal democracies" that the Milei administration prioritizes partnerships?

Argentina has no access to international capital markets and relies heavily on China for investment, and Milei's reforms may undermine China's influence in Argentina, potentially putting a $130 billion currency swap agreement between China and Argentina at risk.

Title:

Content: Argentina ’ s anti-communist president on stage, China-style financial aid diplomacy fizzled
* Arthur Louis
On November 29, 2023, Argentina ’ s elections revealed a political earthquake, with right-wing liberal economist Javier Milei winning the presidency with more than half the votes.
The newly elected right-wing president, Mirei, could pose a major challenge to China ’ s economic and diplomatic programs.
This article will explore the new leader ’ s words and actions, and the likely impact of this political shift on China.
Argentina ’ s new president, Javier Milei, threatened to freeze relations with China during his election campaign, insisting he would not deal with the Communist Party. (Reuters)
The Right-Wing President ’ s Tough Stand
The new president, Mirei, has shown a strong anti-communist and anti-socialist stance in his campaign, which is far from the ideology of the CCP.
During the campaign, he made clear his support for Ukraine in international affairs and declared that the United States and Israel were Argentina ’ s main partners.
Such a political stance would challenge China ’ s influence in Argentina.
The impact of economic reform on China
Mirei ’ s proposed economic reforms, in particular the abolition of the peso currency in favor of the US dollar, could severely undermine China ’ s economic influence in Argentina.
The RMB 130 billion currency swap agreement between China and Argentina is at risk of failure, which means that China could lose an important economic partner and also trigger foreign exchange losses.
Chinese Aid Diplomacy Failed
The author has three arguments that Chinese-style financial aid diplomacy will be defeated with the election of Mirei:
1.
Political inconsistencies: New President Mirei ’ s clear opposition to communism and socialism puts China ’ s foreign policy in Argentina at significant risk. Differences in political positions will hamper previously close bilateral cooperation.
2 Possible disclosure of corruption: The new government may uncover corrupt practices conspired by old government officials and Chinese officials, which could put the CCP under moral pressure internationally and influence external interactions.
3.
Tear up the BRI: The new government risks tearing up the agreement, further weakening the CCP ’ s geopolitical influence in Argentina.
Conclusion
The election of Argentina ’ s right-wing president poses a serious challenge to China ’ s economic and diplomatic strategy.
Differences in political positions, the impact of economic reform, and the risk of a diplomatic deal all threaten to deprive the CCP of a reliable diplomatic partner in this change.
Chinese-style financial aid diplomacy may face a crushing defeat in Argentina ’ s election, forcing Beijing to reassess its diplomatic strategy in Latin America.
(Chinese researchers)
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The US sees an opportunity to offer an alternative to Chinese trade and investment in Argentina, which could lead to a shift in Argentina's economic relationships, and Milei's government may uncover corrupt practices with Chinese officials, which could lead to further tensions in the relationship.

Milei's presidency poses a challenge to China's economic and diplomatic strategy, with Milei's anti-communist stance differing from China's ideology, and China may lose an important economic partner in Argentina, as Milei threatens to freeze relations with China.

What reason did Milei give about not engaging with China, Cuba, and Venezuela?

The implementation of Milei's economic reforms will be challenging, given the country's high inflation rate and large debt, and the government will need to navigate these challenges while implementing its economic reforms, which could have a significant impact on Argentina's economy and society.

Title:

Content: Argentine presidential election won by far-right Mireille
Central News Agency
Argentina ’ s far-right liberal economist Mirai was elected the next president of Argentina today, and he loves to talk about conspiracy theories and reckless style, often compared to former US President Donald Trump, and also represents Argentina ’ s choice to “turn right ” in the face of economic crisis.
This is an advertisement, please continue reading.
The New York Times pointed out that the 53-year-old Javier Milei is an economist and television personality with few political experience.
He touted a subversive approach to reshaping the economy and governance, shaking up traditionally closed Argentine politics.
With 95% of the vote counted, Mirei defeated centre-left rival Sergio Massa with 56% of the vote. The 51-year-old economy minister has already conceded defeat.
During his campaign, Mirei criticized taxes and spending, and proposed radical proposals such as shutting down the central bank and replacing the Argentine currency with the US dollar.
He also intends to ban abortion, loosen gun regulations, and diplomatically only consider dealing with “anti-socialist ” countries, the most common examples of which are the United States and Israel.
Some political analysts believe that Mireille's line reflects a change of heart among Argentines rather than a genuine identification with far-right ideologies.
At present, Argentina ’ s annual inflation has soared 140%, ranking third in the world. More than 2 / 5 of the country ’ s people are living in poverty, and the Argentine peso (peso) value is still falling. When the COVID-19 epidemic began in April 2020, a dollar was worth 80 pesos, but this week it has turned into nearly 1,000 pesos.
Economists and political analysts say Mirei has failed to live up to his political strength and economic conditions, which have been described as "political medicine."
His new Liberal Advances party has only seven seats in the 72-seat Senate and 38 seats in the 257-seat House of Representatives.
Mirei will be sworn in on December 10, the 40th anniversary of the first democratically elected president since the fall of Argentina ’ s military dictatorship.
Argentina today elected Javier Milei as its new president, betting on a radical outsider to fix the economy.
Although the official tally has not yet been announced, Mirei ’ s rival Sergio Massa has already conceded defeat.
Mirei promised shock therapy to save the economy, including shutting down the central bank, abandoning the peso and switching to the dollar as the official currency, and cutting spending.
These painful reforms resonate with angry voters who are struggling with the economy, but they also cause others to worry about austerity.
Cristian, 31, a restaurant worker, said at the vote today: “Mireille is new, a little bit unknown and a little scary, but it ’ s time to turn the page. ”
But Mr Mirei faces enormous challenges, including the prospect of government and central bank vaults running out, the International Monetary Fund ’ s $44 billion debt program, nearly 150% inflation and a series of dizzying capital controls.
Neither candidate fully convinced the Argentines, and some described the election as a “lesser of two evils ” choice: fearful of Mirei ’ s bailout, but more resentful of Masha ’ s ruling party, the Peronist Party, for causing today ’ s economic crisis.
Mireitt is especially popular with young Argentines, who are now growing up watching their country move from one crisis to another.
Agustina Lista, a 22-year-old student from Buenos Aires, said: “Our generation pushed Mireille into the presidency to stop us from becoming a country of untouchables. ”
In addition to reshaping Argentina ’ s political landscape and economic path, Mirei ’ s victory could also impact global trade in cereals, hydrocarbons and lithium battery raw materials.
Mirei has previously attacked China and Brazil, saying that he does not deal with the “Communist Party ” and wants to strengthen relations with the United States.
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As of 2024, what are the statistics regarding poverty?

annual inflation rate of 211% is highest in 32 years

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

The IMF officials have called on the next administration to restart the economy quickly, stressing that there is no time for progressive policies in Argentina, and the organization is expected to play a key role in supporting Milei's economic reforms.

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Content: Javier Milei is elected president of Argentina.
Libertarian Javier Milei, who won the presidency of Argentina on Sunday, promised a radical overhaul to address decades of policy mismanagement, but his radical and bold ideas also raised doubts.
According to the official electoral body, after Sunday ’ s runoff, 99% of the votes were counted, and Milei received 56% of the votes, beating the 44% of the votes of Sergio Massa, the current economy minister.
The number of votes he won was unexpected, and Massa conceded the defeat before the results were announced.
Speaking to Argentines on Sunday night, Milei said his victory marked the beginning of "the reconstruction of Argentina."
“Today Argentina ’ s decline is beginning to end, ” he said.
“Today, the pattern of poverty in a country that is everywhere is over, one that benefits only a part of the population, while the majority suffers. ”
In the capital, Buenos Aires, hundreds of Milei ’ s supporters honked their horns, set off fireworks and sang his popular song against the political elite, “Get them all off! ”.
Milei ’ s main campaign promises include abandoning the peso and switching to the dollar and shutting down the central bank, while slashing public spending in an attempt to get the country of 46 million people out of trouble.
However, Milei ’ s shock therapy could also set Argentina on an uncertain path, with some economists warning that dollarizing the $622 billion economy while international reserves run out could plunge the South American country into another round of hyperinflation.
At the same time, IMF officials called on the next administration to restart the economy quickly, stressing that there was no time for progressive policies.
Argentina last week released its latest October inflation figures, which rose more than 140% a year to a 32-year high.
Milei will take office on December 10.
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However, the conditions for IMF assistance are not explicitly stated, and default remains likely despite the IMF support, and Argentina's economy is valued at $622 billion, with low international reserves, and Milei has promised to abandon the peso and switch to the dollar, which could lead to hyperinflation.

In conclusion, Javier Milei's policy agenda in Argentina includes significant economic reforms, such as dollarization, privatization, and spending cuts, which aim to decrease inflation and promote economic growth, but these reforms have generated significant public opposition and protests, and their impact will depend on the effectiveness of their implementation and the measures taken to mitigate their negative consequences.

What economic issue did Milei want to address?

The IMF has endorsed Milei's economic plan with a $4.7 billion disbursement, but the conditions for IMF assistance are not explicitly stated, and default remains likely despite the IMF support, and Argentina's economy is valued at $622 billion, with low international reserves, and Milei has promised to abandon the peso and switch to the dollar, which could lead to hyperinflation.

Overall, the success of Milei's economic reforms will depend on the government's ability to navigate the challenges associated with their implementation, and to mitigate the negative consequences for vulnerable populations, and the IMF's support will be crucial in this process.

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Content: IMF seeks to reduce inflation with Argentina
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IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and Argentina ’ s President-elect Javier Milli Ole discussed in a telephone conversation the conditions of Argentina ’ s economy amid three-digit inflation and the devaluation of the local currency.
In a tweet, Gorgiyeva said: “We discussed the significant challenges facing the Argentine economy and the decisive political measures needed. ”
The IMF will support efforts to reduce inflation in the country, which exceeds 140 percent, improve its public finances and raise private-sector-led growth.
Argentina avoided delaying payments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after paying $2.6 billion in October as part of its $43 billion program.
The Argentine president wrote on X about the call, saying the IMF is ready to help find the structural solutions Argentina needs.
The liberal economist stated that he had spoken with Gorgiyeva about his fiscal adjustment plan and monetary program.
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