Under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi and President Putin, India and Russia have significantly strengthened their defense cooperation, exemplified by the signing of a 10-year military technical cooperation agreement and the initiation of the first-ever '2+2' ministerial dialogue to deepen strategic ties and facilitate joint development of defense equipment like the AK-203 rifles and S-400 missile systems.

Despite India's growing alignment with the United States through initiatives like the Quad and Indo-Pacific strategies aimed at countering China's influence, India has underscored its strategic autonomy by continuing major defense acquisitions from Russia, such as the S-400 systems, even in the face of potential U.S. sanctions under CAATSA.

Russia has actively sought to preserve and expand its defense ties with India, including discussions on logistics agreements and joint military exercises, as a counterbalance to U.S. efforts to integrate India into its Indo-Pacific strategy amidst India's rivalry with China.

The delivery of the S-400 air defense systems, valued at $5.4 billion, and joint ventures like the production of AK-203 assault rifles and BrahMos cruise missiles underscore India's strategic autonomy and its commitment to maintaining robust defense ties with Russia despite Western pressures.

India and Russia have signed several key agreements under Modi and Putin, including the 2021-2031 Military Technical Cooperation Agreement and the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS), which facilitate joint development of weapons and mutual access to military bases for logistics support.

India's rivalry with China has influenced its relationship with Russia, as New Delhi seeks to balance China's growing influence by leveraging its historical defense ties with Moscow while simultaneously deepening partnerships with the United States and other Indo-Pacific allies.

Despite Russia's growing alignment with China, India has maintained a pragmatic approach by expanding trade and energy cooperation with Moscow while using its diplomatic influence to ensure that Russia respects India's strategic autonomy and supports its broader geopolitical interests.

Russia's closer ties with China have created discomfort for India, as New Delhi views the deepening Russia-China partnership as a challenge to its strategic interests, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region and its rivalry with Beijing over border disputes.

India has sought to sustain its defense collaboration with Russia, including discussions on advanced military systems, while simultaneously deepening ties with the United States to address China's assertiveness in the region.

Under Prime Minister Modi, India has pursued a multi-aligned foreign policy, maintaining strong ties with Russia while deepening its partnership with the United States to counter China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and along the disputed border with India.

Despite Western criticism over India's refusal to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Modi's government has leveraged its historical ties with Moscow to secure discounted oil imports and sustain defense cooperation, which remains vital for balancing China's influence in Eurasia.

India's reliance on Russian arms and defense technology has been driven by Russia's willingness to offer advanced military platforms and favorable conditions, ensuring India's ability to counterbalance China's growing military capabilities.

Amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India's neutral stance and continued defense cooperation with Russia reflect its strategic need to maintain ties with Moscow, partly to prevent Russia from aligning more closely with China.

India's participation in multilateral organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has allowed it to maintain ties with Russia while balancing its rivalry with China, as evidenced by India's insistence on restoring the status quo in border disputes with Beijing.

Despite tensions with China, India has used its presence in BRICS and SCO to engage diplomatically with both Russia and China, with Russia often acting as a mediator to stabilize Sino-Indian relations through mechanisms like the Russia-India-China (RIC) dialogue.

India's refusal to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its increased trade in discounted Russian oil have reinforced the perception of Russia as a critical ally, particularly in the context of India's strategic autonomy and its balancing act between major powers.

The personal rapport between Modi and Putin has significantly shaped India-Russia relations, with Putin praising Modi's commitment to India's national interests and strategic autonomy, which has allowed India to maintain strong ties with Russia despite Western pressure.

Modi and Putin's frequent engagements, including over 20 meetings since Modi's election in 2014, underscore their mutual commitment to sustaining a deep bilateral relationship amidst shifting global alliances.

India and Russia have prioritized connectivity projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor, which aim to enhance trade and strategic linkages in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific while countering China's Belt and Road Initiative.

India's rivalry with China has significantly influenced its participation in the INSTC, as the project allows India to bypass Pakistan and counter China's regional dominance by establishing alternative trade routes to Central Asia, Europe, and Russia.

India's involvement in the INSTC aligns with its broader geopolitical strategy to reduce dependency on Chinese-dominated corridors and enhance its influence in Eurasia, leveraging its geographical position to connect the Indo-Pacific with Eurasian markets.

Under Modi's tenure, public perceptions in India have largely viewed Russia as a steady and reliable partner, with External Affairs Minister Jaishankar emphasizing the unique and enduring nature of the bilateral relationship despite global turbulence.

India's increasing focus on defense indigenization under the 'Make in India' initiative has reduced its reliance on Russian arms, with the share of Russian imports in India's defense procurement declining from over 65% to approximately 49% in the last decade.

Despite these changes, India continues to rely on Russia for critical defense technologies, such as the S-400 missile system and BrahMos missile propulsion, which remain integral to India's military capabilities and its strategic response to China's assertiveness.

India and Russia have leveraged their partnership in multilateral organizations like BRICS and SCO to promote a multipolar world order, emphasizing the importance of equitable and representative global governance.

India's balancing act between Russia and China is evident in its efforts to sustain defense collaboration with Moscow while simultaneously deepening ties with the United States to address China's assertiveness in the region.

India's strategic interest in countering China's assertiveness has led it to leverage its historical ties with Russia, including defense agreements such as the S-400 missile system, while deepening its partnerships with the US and other Indo-Pacific allies.

India's approach to balancing its relationships with Russia and the United States reflects its commitment to strategic autonomy, as demonstrated by Modi's recent visit to Russia to address trade imbalances and discuss China's activities in the Indo-Pacific.

India's energy cooperation with Russia has significantly expanded under Modi, with Russia becoming a prominent oil supplier to India amidst Western sanctions following the Ukraine conflict.

This deepening energy partnership supports India's strategic autonomy by balancing its ties with Russia amidst Western pressure, while also countering China's influence in the region through enhanced connectivity projects.

Under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi and President Putin, India and Russia have significantly strengthened their defense cooperation, exemplified by the signing of a 10-year military technical cooperation agreement and the initiation of the first-ever '2+2' ministerial dialogue to deepen strategic ties and facilitate joint development of defense equipment like the AK-203 rifles and S-400 missile systems.

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'India great power and a time-tested friend', says Russia's Vladimir Putin

India, Russia hold 21st summit, and first 2+2 dialogue; sign 28 agreements

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indian government | India-Russia ties | Narendra Modi

Ajai Shukla  |  New Delhi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi receives Russian President Vladimir Putin at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, on Monday (Photo: PTI)

New Delhi and Moscow on Monday issued to the world a high-visibility reminder about their “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership”, as Prime Minister and Russian President held the 21st India-Russia Summit, an annual ritual missed only in 2020 due to the pandemic.

Leading into the 21st summit meeting, India and Russia held their first-ever 2 + 2 Ministerial Dialogue, in which External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh together held strategic discussions with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

“We perceive India as a great power, a friendly nation and a time-tested friend. The relations between our countries are growing and I am looking into the future,” Putin said in his initial comments.

Putin also expressed concern over the developments in Afghanistan and said India and Russia will continue to coordinate on major challenges facing the region.

Modi said Putin’s second visit abroad during the Covid-19 pandemic reflected his personal commitment to the and that the special and privileged strategic partnership between the two sides was getting stronger. In the last few decades, the world witnessed many fundamental changes and different kinds of geopolitical equations and variables, but the friendship of India and Russia remained constant, Modi said. “Your visit to India is a reflection of your commitment to ties with India,” the PM said.

Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla said 28 agreements were concluded between India and Russia after Modi-Putin meet. After the 2+2 meeting, Jaishankar tweeted: “A productive exchange of perspectives on cross-cutting and inter-related issues. Will be reporting it to the Annual Summit later today.”

Earlier on Monday, there was a meeting of the apex body that governs defence relations between the two: The Indo-Russian Inter-Governmental Commission on Military Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-MTC), co-chaired by the two defence ministers, Singh and Shoigu.

India’s military uses Russian weaponry extensively, such as Sukhoi-30MKI fighter aircraft, T-90S tanks and BMP infantry combat vehicles, Talwar-class frigates, and Kilo-class submarines. The two sides have jointly produced the highly regarded BrahMos cruise missile system.

During the 17th annual summit, the two countries concluded deals on India’s procurement of five units of the S-400 air defence systems for an estimated ~37,000 crore, constructing Talwar-class frigates under Project 1135.6, and a shareholders’ agreement on a joint venture (JV) to manufacture Kamov-226T helicopters in India.

The S400 is regarded as the world’s premier long-range missile system, with the ability to shoot down enemy aircraft at ranges up to 400 kilometres. During the confrontation over the last two years between the Chinese and Indian armies in Ladakh, China deployed the S400 along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

On March 3, 2019, in Amethi, Modi announced another JV —Indo-Russian Rifles — that would manufacture 750,000 AK-203 assault rifles in Korwa under the “Make in India” programme for an estimated $687 million. Russia is also competing for a ~40,000-crore deal for building six submarines in India under Project 75I, and a ~50,000-60,000 crore agreement to manufacture 114 fighter aircraft in India.

To ensure that Russian defence equipment was not hampered by any shortfall in maintenance or spare parts, the two sides agreed during the 20th Annual Summit in Vladivostok in September 2019 to cooperate in producing spare parts for Russian/Soviet military equipment.

The India-Russia defence partnership is being tested by Washington, especially through the piece of legislation the US Congress passed in 2017, titled CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act). This provides for US sanctions on countries that have significant defence or intelligence relations with Russia, Iran, or North Korea. India’s purchase of the S400 missile system is regarded as a potential trigger for Washington to impose sanctions.

While the US Congress has created a “CAATSA waiver” for close partners such as India, the US president is required to determine whether to exercise that waiver. So far, President Joe Biden has not stated a preference.

India, which faces a growing threat from China, is determined to buy the S400 from Russia. Asked whether New Delhi would bow to CAATSA pressure, India’s foreign ministry spokesperson said last week: “India and the US have a special global strategic partnership. And we also have a very special and privileged strategic partnership with Russia. And as you’re all aware, we pursue an independent foreign policy. This applies to our defence acquisitions, and supplies which are and will continue to be guided by our security interest.”

New Delhi and Moscow have identified trade and economic relations as a priority area. Modi and Putin have set a bilateral investment target of $50 billion and a bilateral trade target of $30 billion by 2025. (With inputs from PTI)

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First Published: Tue, December 07 2021. 01:24 IST
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In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

weapons supply
weapons joint production
security & military

Despite India's growing alignment with the United States through initiatives like the Quad and Indo-Pacific strategies aimed at countering China's influence, India has underscored its strategic autonomy by continuing major defense acquisitions from Russia, such as the S-400 systems, even in the face of potential U.S. sanctions under CAATSA.

Title:

Content: S-400 is a legacy contract, supply of this defence system will continue: Foreign secy Shringla

Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla on Monday said S-400 is a legacy contract and the supply of the defence system has begun this month and would continue.

ANI | New Delhi | Updated: 06-12-2021 22:58 IST | Created: 06-12-2021 22:58 IST
  • Country:
  • India

Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla on Monday said S-400 is a legacy contract and the supply of the defence system has begun this month and would continue. During a special Ministry of External Affairs briefing today, the Foreign Secretary said: "There was a sense that S-400, which you all are aware, is a legacy contract, going back to 2018 and was in fact discussed before that. Supply has begun this month and will continue to happen."

Addressing issues relating to other countries including the United States, Shringla noted that India and Russia conduct an independent foreign policy. "With all issues relating to other countries, it is important to note that whether it is us (India) or Russia, we conduct an independent foreign policy and I don't think we need to look at our relationship in the light of any other relationship," the Foreign Secretary said.

Referring to Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), Shringla said that "I don't think this issue came up at all" during the talks with the Russian delegation. Shringla held a special briefing after the annual summit meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin. Both countries have signed 28 MoUs along with a programme of cooperation in the field of defence for the next 10 years from 2021 to 2031.

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov today said that the United States undermined the India-Russia deal on S-400 defence system. He added that the US tried to make India "obey its orders" but New Delhi told them it's a decision of a sovereign country to bolster its defence system. "We witnessed at times on part of the United States to undermine this cooperation and to make India obey US orders to follow American vision to how this region should develop, and our Indian friends clearly and firmly explained that they are a sovereign country and they will decide whose weapons to buy and who is going to be a partner of India in this and other areas," Lavrov told ANI.

The S-400 air defence system was contracted for by India in a deal worth around Rs 35,000 crore and five squadrons would be provided to India for tackling air threats from up to 400 km. Washington had indicated that the Russian S-400 systems may trigger CAATSA sanctions. The CAATSA is a United States federal law that imposed sanctions on Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act CAATSA authorises the US administration to impose sanctions on countries that purchase major defence hardware from Russia in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its alleged meddling in the 2016 US presidential elections. (ANI)

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

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How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

Russia has actively sought to preserve and expand its defense ties with India, including discussions on logistics agreements and joint military exercises, as a counterbalance to U.S. efforts to integrate India into its Indo-Pacific strategy amidst India's rivalry with China.

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Content: Russia-India coordination, balance, US-India approach?
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Source: Global Times
Author: Wang Shida
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke by telephone with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 20th to further develop the "special and privileged strategic partnership" between the two countries.
At the beginning of this month, Russia and India held an annual leaders' summit, launched the first "2 + 2" dialogue between foreign ministers and defense ministers, and agreed to strengthen cooperation and coordination on bilateral and multilateral issues, and signed up to 28 cooperation agreements.
In just two weeks, the summit had two interactions, which sent a signal that Russian-Indian relations were more special than before.
From the interaction on the 6th, Putin led a strong delegation to visit India and held the annual Russian-Indian leaders' summit.
This is Putin's second overseas visit since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, highlighting the importance he attaches to the "special and privileged strategic partnership" between the two countries.
During the visit, Russia and India held their first "2 + 2" meeting, which will help deepen mutual understanding and strengthen the special and privileged strategic partnership between the two countries.
The most important of the 28 cooperation agreements signed by Russia and India is the Agreement on Military Technical Cooperation 2021-2031.
The document will provide guidance for Russian-Indian military cooperation in the next 10 years, especially to promote joint development and production of weapons and equipment.
It can be said that the foundation for the next stage of military interaction between Russia and India has been laid.
In addition, Russia and India are also actively discussing the signing of a military logistics agreement similar to the memorandum of understanding on logistics exchange between the two countries to facilitate the use of each other's military bases.
Once signed in the future, the Russian-Indian military relations will take another step forward.
The two leaders discussed how to implement the agreement reached at the December 6 meeting, agreed to maintain regular contact on all aspects covered by the Russian-Indian “special and privileged strategic partnership ”, continue to deepen bilateral cooperation and consultation and coordination in multilateral forums, and exchange views on international stability and security issues, including the situation in the Asia-Pacific region.
Since taking office as US president at the beginning of the year, Biden has inherited and strengthened the Indo-Pacific strategy of his predecessor, Trump, and has courted India as the key to its success.
To this end, Biden has made efforts to promote the upgrading and implementation of the four-nation mechanism.
In March this year, the four-nation mechanism held its first video summit, issued a joint declaration, and established three working groups to implement the summit consensus.
In September, the four-nation mechanism held its first offline summit, reiterating the implementation of cooperation in the fields of vaccines and high-quality infrastructure, and proposing to jointly train scientific and technological talents to create a "closed loop of scientific and technological talents of the four countries".
For example, the United States has continued to deepen the "comprehensive global strategic cooperative partnership" between the United States and India.
On March 19, U.S. Defense Secretary William Austin visited India, calling the U.S.-India relationship "a key pillar of a free and open Indo-Pacific."
Under the continued cozying up of the Biden administration, India's attitude of strategic autonomy has become blurred, and it has clearly moved closer to and tilted toward the United States in implementing its foreign policy of "multi-faceted alliance."
During his visit to the United States in September, Modi said that "the relationship between the United States and India has entered a critical transition period".
In the face of the continuous promotion of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" by the United States and the drift and deviation of India in the two strategic directions of the Indo-Pacific Ocean and the Eurasian continent, Russia is certainly alert.
As early as the Cold War, Russia and India established a relatively special strategic cooperative partnership, even reaching the level of quasi-allies.
At the end of the Cold War, Russia pushed India to join strategic designs such as the "trilateral dialogue between China, Russia and India" in an attempt to promote the establishment of a fair and multipolar world order.
Russia also sees India as an important partner in the Indian Ocean region and an important contributor to the effects of radiation in the Indian Ocean region.
To this end, Russia has taken a series of actions, Foreign Minister Lavrov and other high-level leaders directly expressed opposition to the United States using the "Indo-Pacific strategy" as a tool to contain China and Russia and create regional division.
This round of Russian-Indian strategic coordination is also the proper meaning of Russia's anti-Indo-Pacific strategy.
In particular, Russia and India signed a major defense cooperation order, began the delivery of S-400 air defense system, and will soon sign a military logistics agreement, which is conducive to consolidating defense and military cooperation between the two countries, hedging the penetration and erosion of the traditional Russian arms market by the United States in the past 10 years, and preventing India from falling into the "Indo-Pacific camp" because of increased dependence on weapons and equipment.
Therefore, Russian-Indian interaction is conducive to maintaining the relative balance between the two camps of the Eurasian continent and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, as well as to global strategic stability and peace.
(The writer is deputy director of the South Asia Institute of the Chinese Institute of Modern International Relations)
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In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

In what regions do India and Russia have common strategic interests?

What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

The delivery of the S-400 air defense systems, valued at $5.4 billion, and joint ventures like the production of AK-203 assault rifles and BrahMos cruise missiles underscore India's strategic autonomy and its commitment to maintaining robust defense ties with Russia despite Western pressures.

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

weapons supply
weapons joint production
security & military

India and Russia have signed several key agreements under Modi and Putin, including the 2021-2031 Military Technical Cooperation Agreement and the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS), which facilitate joint development of weapons and mutual access to military bases for logistics support.

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

weapons supply
weapons joint production
security & military

India's rivalry with China has influenced its relationship with Russia, as New Delhi seeks to balance China's growing influence by leveraging its historical defense ties with Moscow while simultaneously deepening partnerships with the United States and other Indo-Pacific allies.

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India between Russia and America
I'm sorry.
The Merciful
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As a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, India abstained last week to condemn Russia, the largest and most capable country in Europe and Asia, for its military operation in Ukraine.
Western countries voted in the Security Council to demand that Russia stop its operation in Ukraine and withdraw its troops immediately, but Russia responded by vetoing a council resolution.
The reason for India's abstention was that it believed that non-alignment on this issue was in its national interests, while siding with one side meant harassing the other in a situation where both the United States and Russia were important to India and its national interests.
Abstaining in the Security Council has thus allowed India to avoid taking sides and being dragged into a crisis in distant places.
The challenge for India, which has no direct interests in Ukraine apart from evacuating its mostly student citizens there, is to make sure there is no reaction to the crisis on its relations with Russia, a key defense partner, or with the United States, which is crucial to addressing growing problems with China in the region.
The Ukraine crisis also comes at a time when India is in the process of acquiring five S-400 Triumph air defense missile systems from Russia and needs an exception from the United States, which has already sanctioned Turkey under the Countering America ’ s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for possessing the same S-400 missiles from Russia.
Moscow has already begun delivering missiles to New Delhi, which is seen as an important element of defence readiness for India, which has an unstable border with both Pakistan and China.
Russia and India have been allies since the Cold War, and defense cooperation has long been a cornerstone of their relationship.
India has sought to diversify its defense purchases outside of Russia, from countries such as Israel, the United States and others.
But more than 60 percent of India ’ s weapons continue to come from Russia, which means India needs to continue to get spare parts from Moscow.
There is no doubt that the relationship between India and Russia has come under strain, as New Delhi has become closer to Washington, amid mutual concerns over a range of issues, including the rise of China.
Their relationship has deepened over the past decade and they are now partners, along with Japan and Australia, in the Quadripartite Security Forum.
Russia, in turn, has become closer to China and Pakistan even as its relations with the United States and the West deteriorate.
But developments in Afghanistan, where the withdrawal of U.S. troops has brought the Taliban back to power, have led to New Delhi ’ s increased political engagement with Moscow as India seeks access to Central Asia.
There is no doubt that India is trying to maintain a delicate balance between Russia and the United States, taking sides in the Ukraine conflict will only lead to problems for India, especially since it has no direct interests in Ukraine.
There have also been reports that Russia has quietly worked behind the scenes to defuse tensions between India and China following the 2020 border clashes.
As a result, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the few world leaders to have spoken by phone with President Vladimir Putin in the midst of the Ukraine crisis.
Modi appealed to President Putin for an immediate halt to military actions and “called on all parties to return to diplomatic negotiations and dialogue. ”
At the same time, Modi also spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and expressed “readiness to contribute in any way to the peace efforts. ”
For India, the sooner this crisis is resolved, the better, especially because of its fears that the focus of the United States and its other allies may shift from the Indo-Pacific and the China Sea to a crisis in Europe over the dispute over Ukraine ’ s accession to NATO.
It is clear, however, that the United States and its NATO allies will avoid indulging in a direct armed conflict in Ukraine.
While the EU has imposed some sanctions, including closing airspace to Russian aircraft, New Delhi ’ s biggest concern is that it will not get an exemption from Washington over the Triumph missile system and that tougher economic sanctions could lead to a spike in oil prices.
Although the Russian and Ukrainian delegates have agreed to meet to discuss and resolve the conflict, an early resolution of the crisis seems elusive.
It is clear that Moscow is determined to create a demilitarized buffer zone between Russia and NATO member states.
But there is no doubt that a peaceful solution is the best way forward to end a crisis of this magnitude.
* Chairman of the Centre for Islamic Studies, New Delhi
Quote from "The Union"
Disclaimer: All published articles represent the opinion of their authors only.
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Despite Russia's growing alignment with China, India has maintained a pragmatic approach by expanding trade and energy cooperation with Moscow while using its diplomatic influence to ensure that Russia respects India's strategic autonomy and supports its broader geopolitical interests.

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Content: Why Did Their Warm Hug Upset Others?

By Vijay Darda | Published: July 15, 2024 06:27 AM2024-07-15T06:27:19+5:302024-07-15T06:28:31+5:30

West angry, China worried over warmth between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Putin

The world is a strange place indeed... it even objects to two friends embracing each other.

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin hugged each other, the entire West started making a fuss. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy even said, “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day when there has been a deadly attack on a children’s hospital in Ukraine.” Other Western countries were also displeased as they had expected that Narendra Modi would not hug Putin under any circumstances.

Western think tanks were even writing about this on social media, but those familiar with Modi’s style of functioning know that he can always surprise with his diplomacy. He did the same this time. While Russia is happy, it is like rubbing salt on wounds for the countries right from the US to Europe. Quite obviously, China is concerned but cannot say anything openly because it needs Russia the most right now.

Modi’s visit to Russia came at a time when leaders of the European countries had gathered in the US under the banner of NATO with the intent to corner Russia. Given the improved relations between India and the US in recent years, Western countries thought that although India hadn’t openly criticised Russia yet, it would not support Russia either. They expected Modi to at least give a message by not hugging Putin. But the opposite happened. Putin invited Narendra Modi to his residence for a private dinner and honoured him with Russia’s highest civilian award. On his part, Modi gave Putin a warm bear hug. As soon as the pictures and videos from this event appeared, the Western countries were jolted and criticism started flowing thick and fast. Surprisingly, the Western powers were so disturbed by the hug that they forgot Modi had clearly stated in his meeting with Putin that issues cannot be resolved on the battlefield. He even expressed his anguish stating that when children die in war, it hurts deep down. When Modi had said this to Putin earlier, the Western countries had welcomed his stand. So what changed this time? I find foreign minister S Jaishankar’s statement quite apt that Europe’s perspective is one-sided. They consider their problem to be the world’s problem but do not acknowledge the world’s problem as a problem at all.

Those criticising the warm hug between Putin and Modi should understand that the friendship between Russia and India is not new. Since the time of Pt. Jawaharlal Nehru, we have been close friends. Though our languages are different, we have always spoken in one voice. Raj Kapoor was as popular in Soviet Russia as he was in India. If Western countries try to see things from India’s perspective, they would understand that India’s stance is not against the West but aligned with its own existential needs. Even though the US, France and other countries are ready to supply us with various types of weapons today, how can we forget that when the US openly supported Pakistan, it was Russia that provided us with strategic help. It has always been our reliable partner. Today, the situation has forced Russia to lean rapidly towards China because of economic sanctions imposed by the Western countries. In such a situation, it is natural for India to strengthen its friendship with Russia. The Western experts are claiming that if China indulges in any misadventure on India’s border, Russia will not directly support India. In such a situation, only the US will come to its aid. This assessment may be correct for once, but the fact remains that in the present situation, only Russia has the power to dissuade China from escalating tensions with India. China also knows that it cannot advance without Russia’s help.

Some US experts are saying that Russia’s agreement to produce defence equipment in India is a matter of concern for the US. Such statements seem foolish to me. It’s fine if you manufacture and sell weapons worldwide and instigate conflicts, but if we produce weapons for our defence, it’s a threat to you! I want to make it clear that Modi hugging Putin just before the NATO meeting sends a message to the entire world that India will not listen to anyone on strategic issues. India will work only for global peace. Modi’s visit to Austria after hugging Putin is a significant message too. After all, an Indian Prime Minister visited Austria after 41 years.

Age puzzle in the battle of elders!

As I am writing this column, reports of an attempt on the life of Trump came in. This incident might strengthen Trump’s position. But quite strangely, the US will get the oldest President in its history, regardless of which of the current two candidates in the US presidential race emerges victorious. The previous record was held by Ronald Reagan, who retired at the age of 77 after his second term. Joe Biden is 81 while Trump is 78. In public life in the US, elderly people working is not unusual. Official statistics show that nearly two million people over 75 years of age are working regularly there.

This number is expected to exceed three million in the next decade. Therefore, there should be no qualms about why Biden and Trump want to become president at this age. The age question popped up when Biden’s memory issues came to the fore.

Currently, it is the White House and the CIA’s intelligence officers who are extremely concerned about the President’s age. The million dollar question is: Can vital intelligence be shared with a President of such an advanced age? But what options do they have?

The author is the chairman,  Editorial Board of Lokmat Media and former member of Rajya Sabha.

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Bloomberg: India will prevent Putin from getting closer to China
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched the plan.
Russia ’ s active rapprochement with China worries India, which is countering its growing influence in the region.
Concerned about the expansion of the “limitless partnership ”, Prime Minister Narendra Modi next week will go to Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin, writes Bloomberg.
It will be his first visit to Russia since the start of Putin ’ s war in Ukraine and his first trip abroad since Modi took office as prime minister for the third time.
While Moscow will try to present the meeting as proof that Russia has not been isolated since Western sanctions were imposed, Modi ’ s trip is more motivated by a desire to reaffirm the status quo in bilateral relations and limit China ’ s influence, experts and experts close to the Indian government say.
India is wary of Moscow ’ s growing dependence on Beijing, says Swasti Rao, a research fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis at the Indian Ministry of Defense:
The deepening of strategic interaction between Russia and China makes New Delhi uncomfortable, as it is like a best friend sleeping with the enemy.
Given our concerns, it makes sense for the prime minister to go there and talk to Putin at the highest level.
Like China, India has taken advantage of the difficult situation that Russia has found itself in because of the sanctions.
It has more than 20 times increased purchases of Russian oil compared to 2021, saving 13 billion thanks to discounts on it, according to the April report of the rating agency ICRA.
It continues to purchase services and components from Russia to service previously purchased weapons, although major deals do not seem to be going any more.
In 2019-2023, according to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute, India for the first time since the early 1960s purchased less than half of the weapons from Russia / the USSR: the share of imports was only 36% compared to 76% in 2009-2013.
Russia has lost the Indian arms market, which has dominated for more than half a century
Russia has lost the Indian arms market, which has dominated for more than half a century
The meeting between Modi and Putin is expected to discuss the supply of logistics to India to strengthen cooperation between the armed forces of the two countries and resume discussions on joint development of a fifth-generation fighter, but breakthrough agreements in either this or other areas are likely not, informed Indian officials told Bloomberg.
Also, according to them, cooperation in nuclear energy will be discussed.
Payments in rupees for Russian oil for a long time hung on accounts in Indian banks, all of them accumulated by $8 billion.
Although the countries agreed to continue to pay for oil in UAE dirhams and increase purchases of Indian goods, their annual exports to Russia still do not exceed $5 billion.
Fearing sanctions and difficulties with calculations, Indian business is not eager to increase turnover.
Modi ’ s visit is “maintaining the status quo, ” Alexei Zakharov, an expert on India at HSE, told Bloomberg:“ Relations are not deteriorating, but there is no particular desire to improve them. ”
This is the second time that Putin ’ s turn to the East has caused concern among the leading countries in the region.
Thus, Chinese leaders may believe that Putin ’ s rapprochement with North Korea and the conclusion of a military alliance with it during a recent visit to Pyongyang may reduce the dependence of Russia and North Korea on Beijing and provoke unnecessary tension in the region.
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What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India has sought to sustain its defense collaboration with Russia, including discussions on advanced military systems, while simultaneously deepening ties with the United States to address China's assertiveness in the region.

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

weapons supply
weapons joint production
security & military

In what regions do India and Russia have common strategic interests?

What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

Under Prime Minister Modi, India has pursued a multi-aligned foreign policy, maintaining strong ties with Russia while deepening its partnership with the United States to counter China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and along the disputed border with India.

Title:

Content: World News
India as a Future Mediator to Resolve U.S. and Russian Differences
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There are good reasons to believe that India has the best chance of bringing both the United States and Russia to the negotiating table, which would go a long way toward finally ending the conflict.
Indian Foreign Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar acknowledged this, noting: “We tried, but the gap between the two countries was too big. ”
Although India has failed to persuade participants to issue a joint G20 declaration due to persistent great-power differences over the conflict, New Delhi ’ s important role as a future mediator between the United States and Russia should not be underestimated.
Why is New Delhi ideally suited for this role?
Rowand explains why since India ’ s independence in 1947, India has maintained a non-aligned foreign policy.
This is not to say that India, in practice, avoids favoring one country over another.
However, it offers an open door policy for everyone.
India, for example, has diplomatic relations not only with countries like Cuba, Iran, and North Korea, but with loyal U.S. allies, such as Australia, Japan, and NATO as well.
In the course of dealing with the Ukraine war negotiations, India will be a source of strength for the simple fact that it welcomes dialogue with almost anyone, without preconditions or reservations.
Another reason why India makes sense for the role of mediator is that it enjoys very healthy partnerships with both the major powers most involved in the war: Russia and the United States.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi ’ s government added to its policy of non-alignment by introducing “multiple alignment ” — essentially a comprehensive hedging strategy — into its political geography.
Through multiple alignment, India seeks to avoid getting involved with any one superpower by strengthening cooperation with all of them.
New Delhi hopes this approach will preserve India ’ s strategic independence as great-power competition intensifies.
Refusal of conviction
India has also refused to condemn the Ukraine crisis, and Russia has become India ’ s largest supplier of discounted barrels of crude oil.
This is not a minor coup considering India ’ s enormous energy requirements not only as a rapidly growing country, but now as the world ’ s most populous country as well.
While the West is appalled by the move, it also gives New Delhi a fair amount of leverage over the Kremlin, which has been desperate to keep selling oil despite Western sanctions.
India ’ s long and close ties with Russia dating back to the Cold War allow New Delhi to criticize Russian policies, albeit covertly, with impunity.
A strong partnership
India ’ s partnership with the United States is as strong as its partnership with Russia, and arguably the best it has been in history.
Since Modi came to power in 2014, New Delhi has prioritized stronger ties with Washington, primarily to counter Beijing ’ s growing insistence across the Indo-Pacific to include the disputed land border separating India from China.
In 2017, during the construction of Chinese roads in Doklam resulted from that three geo-strategically sensitive border between China, India and Bhutan and a months-long military standoff between Indian and Chinese forces, prompting Modi to increasingly welcome U.S. support.
Later that year, India agreed to revive the Quartet — a security dialogue between like-minded democracies including Australia, Japan and the United States — to counter China.
Bilateral and multilateral cooperation continued following the June 2020 deployment of Chinese troops across the border into India-controlled territory in the Galavan Valley, leading to the worst clashes in decades.
A super power.
Besides its strong ties with Russia and the United States, India is an emerging superpower in its own right, which means that both Moscow and Washington as well as Beijing, Western European capitals and others are taking its stance on war seriously.
As the G-20 actions so far have shown, India is now the voice and conscience of the entire developing world.
During his opening speech at a meeting of foreign ministers last week, Modi lamented the failure of global governance, saying: “We must recognize that the tragic consequences of this failure are faced primarily by developing countries. ”
The developing world is important in the Ukraine conflict because it includes the majority of nations around the world, many of which are in the crosshairs of geostrategic great-power rivalry.
Judging by the voting patterns at the United Nations since the beginning of the conflict, they oppose Western-led sanctions, but also believe that Russia should not have attacked its neighbor and should have returned to the status quo ante.
India embodies this balanced perspective, which defines the tone and lines of the future peace agreement.
Promise of compatibility
India has promised that it will have the motivation to reach consensus and finally issue a joint declaration.
Which again confirms that India ’ s position at least as of last year was basically the international consensus.
New Delhi ’ s very realistic approach to foreign policy will not be affected by acting as a bridge between the United States and Russia. Quite the contrary, even limited success in ending the conflict will enhance India ’ s credibility as a rising superpower capable of accomplishment.
Reasons why India is the best mediator between Russia and the United States:
welcomes the dialogue without preconditions or reservations.
India has maintained a non-aligned foreign policy.
It enjoys very healthy partnerships with both the great powers most involved in the war: Russia and the United States.
India refused to condemn the Ukraine crisis, and Russia became India ’ s largest supplier of discounted barrels of crude oil.
India ’ s long and close ties with Russia allow New Delhi to criticize Russian policies with impunity.
India and the United States have close ties due to the alliance against China.
India is an emerging superpower and is the voice of the developing world and embodies a balanced perspective, which defines the tone and lines of a future peace agreement.
These were the details of the news of India and a future mediator to resolve the differences of America and Russia for today we hope that we have been able to give you the details and full information and to follow all our news you can subscribe in the system alerts or in one of our different systems to provide you with all that is new.
It is also worth noting that the original news has been published and is available on Al-Watan Online has been verified by the editorial team in Gulf 365 and may have been modified and may have been transferred in full or quoted from it and you can read and follow up on the news from its main source.
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What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

Despite Western criticism over India's refusal to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Modi's government has leveraged its historical ties with Moscow to secure discounted oil imports and sustain defense cooperation, which remains vital for balancing China's influence in Eurasia.

Title:

Content: Homepage

Modi's Russia visit shows India isn't worried about making the US mad

  • In a move likely to anger the US, Modi is visiting Russia.
  • The move signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow, and shows the world India is pursuing its own agenda.
  • Modi is aiming to correct the trade imbalance and address China's Indo-Pacific activities.
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In a move likely to anger the US, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Russia on Monday for his first bilateral trip after winning a historic third term in office.

Modi's two-day visit to Russia — where he is scheduled to meet with President Vladimir Putin — is significant in that it signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow. It also shows the world that India is not afraid to pursue its own agenda.

Vinay Kwatra, India's foreign secretary, told reporters in New Delhi that issues between Russia and India have "piled up" and "need to be addressed," per Bloomberg.

Russia's relationship with India goes back to the Cold War, and trade between the two countries has grown since Russia started the war in Ukraine. India is a major buyer of Russian oil. Russia is also India's biggest arms supplier.

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Kwatra underscored that the two countries' trade relationship has remained "resilient."

Still, Modi's trip will "rankle many Western observers," Ved Shinde, a researcher and contributor to Australia's Lowy Institute think tank, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

"Since the Ukraine war began, India's purchase of cheap oil from Russia has been seen as profiting from troubles in the heart of Europe," Shinde added.

Modi's visit to Russia will make the US look bad

Just like Putin's visit to supply-chain hot spot Vietnam, India's engagement with Russia isn't a good look for the US, as it comes while Washington is isolating Putin's regime.

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The US has raised "some concerns" about India's relationship with Russia with New Delhi, Kurt Campbell, the US Deputy Secretary of State, said last month.

However, Washington acknowledges that India's ties with Russia are different from its ties with the US.

"We have many areas of alignment, but it is not surprising that there would be areas where we've had perhaps different perspectives, views, historical ties," Campbell said about America's relationship with India.

India, for its part, is looking to balance its relationship with the world's key powerbrokers — the US, Russia, and China.

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"There are different degrees in India's multi-alignment. Make no mistake — the United States and its allies are more consequential for India's future than its relationship with Russia," wrote Shinde.

India needs to leverage its historical ties with Russia to secure its economy and security, so Modi isn't just in Russia for a goodwill trip.

Reducing the trade imbalance

A key agenda item for the visit is to reduce a huge bilateral trade imbalance, said Kwatra.

India imports about $60 billion of goods a year from Russia, but Russia buys less than 10% of this amount from India, per Bloomberg.

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Modi may also touch on China's activities in the Indo-Pacific region, said Kwatra.

India is trying to manage its relationship with China, which has been testy since a border dispute in 2020. Modi skipped the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kazakhstan last week.

There's also the matter of Russia's ties with China.

At the summit last week, Putin said Russia's relationship with China is in the "best period in history."

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Modi now needs to cozy up to Putin to counter China's advances.

"The reason for the time-tested stability in India-Russia ties is to maintain a continental balance in the Eurasian heartland. That is, to balance China," wrote Shinde.

"Or to put it another way, don't go around making new adversaries when there are already two open fronts — China and Pakistan," Shinde added.

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How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

How has Russia/ India trade evolved since the start of the war in Ukraine?

India's purchases of Russian oil increased

How has trade level between India and Russia changed under Modi and Putin?

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

energy
weapons supply
security & military

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India's reliance on Russian arms and defense technology has been driven by Russia's willingness to offer advanced military platforms and favorable conditions, ensuring India's ability to counterbalance China's growing military capabilities.

Title:

Content: Lithuanian Foreign Minister Lance Burgess recently visited India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister Sujssen on the regional security threat posed by Russia and China and the importance of reducing cooperation with Russia in the military, diplomatic and economic fields.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis also confirmed to Lithuanian media today that following the establishment of a representative office in Taiwan last year and the opening of an economic and trade office in Australia this year, India will also set up an embassy in Vilnius, the capital of the country.
The Lithuanian government, which took office in December 2020, is committed to expanding and deepening relations with the Indo-Pacific region, with new embassies in Australia, South Korea and Singapore, and an economic and trade office in Taiwan expected to open this year.
Bordering Russia and Belarus, Lithuania was occupied by the Soviet Union for about 50 years and has always been wary of Moscow ’ s imperial ambitions.
Russia ’ s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February proved Lithuania ’ s long-held warning to its European and American allies.
With Lithuania at the forefront of European countries in supporting Ukraine, countering Russia, and even supporting Taiwan against Beijing ’ s bullying, Lithuania can be expected to play a more important role in the security issues linking Europe and the Indo-Pacific region.
During his visit to India on the 26th, he spoke at the annual Raisina Dialogue with foreign ministers from Poland and Luxembourg, as well as experts from Britain and the United States to discuss the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on European and global security structures and economic and trade activities.
Lithuania's Foreign Ministry said that during the meeting with Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the two sides discussed issues such as supply chain diversification and reducing economic and trade dependence on autocratic regimes, and stressed that Lithuania and the European Union see India as an important partner and that Russia's aggression is likely to expand beyond Ukraine.
Both sides agreed that since global food and energy supplies would be greatly affected, even countries far away from Russia could not be aloof to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
After Russia's full invasion of Ukraine in February, India's vote on the Russia-Ukraine issue at the United Nations mostly chose not to oppose Russia, and so far has not joined the sanctions against Russia, and even decided to increase the purchase of Russian oil at reduced prices, which has caused concern in Western countries that have positioned India as an important liberal and democratic partner in the Indo-Pacific region in recent years.
Despite India ’ s efforts in recent years to boost its production of armaments, and the trend of arms imports from Russia falling to the west, according to a report released in March by the Stockholm Institute for International Peace (SIPRI), a Swedish think-tank, Russia accounted for an average of nearly 50% of India ’ s total arms imports between 2017 and 2021.
Based on factors such as territorial disputes and armed conflicts along its borders, India has in recent years tended to regard China as a top security threat and has maintained a degree of cooperation with Russia since the Cold War era.
Aaditya Dave, a researcher specializing in South Asia at the Royal United Military Research Institute (RUSI), a British think tank, recently wrote that the West has long avoided providing India with advanced weapons and military technology, but Russia is willing to do so and relatively favorable conditions, so India has become the largest buyer of Russian military equipment.
However, the war in Ukraine and the West ’ s reaction are likely to deepen Russia ’ s need for economic, trade and strategic cooperation with China, and the tightening of Russia-China relations will inevitably lead to unease in India.
On the other hand, Russia has also strengthened its relations with India ’ s old enemy Pakistan in recent years.
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, who visited Russia in February before stepping down in April, became the first Pakistani prime minister to visit Russia in nearly 23 years and the first foreign leader to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin after the war.
David pointed out that while there are still countries in Europe that continue to buy oil and gas from Russia, convincing India to join sanctions against Russia is obviously not easy.
However, India is also concerned about the impact of international sanctions on Russia, affecting the acquisition of the military equipment needed to counter the Chinese armed forces.
David called on the West to help India accelerate diversification and localization of its arms supply chain, rather than restricting access to India ’ s weapons.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced during a visit to India on 21-22 that Britain would simplify administrative procedures, shorten delivery times, and strengthen bilateral military-industrial cooperation, including technology transfer and localization, within the framework of a Make-in-India policy.
The prime minister ’ s office said it was the first time the UK had used the Open General Export Licence (OGEL) mechanism in the Indo-Pacific region to increase the efficiency of arms sales to specific countries.
# Russia # India # Lithuania # Indo-Pacific # Military

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

Amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India's neutral stance and continued defense cooperation with Russia reflect its strategic need to maintain ties with Moscow, partly to prevent Russia from aligning more closely with China.

Title:

Content: NATO expansion after Iraq: Why did Turkey open its bow in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
Author: Liu Yanting
Published: Updated:
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is both a playground for the great powers and an operational fulcrum for the interests of the regional powers.
In the Middle East Gulf region, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates did not fully respond to the demand for increased oil production in the United States, refused to kick Russia out of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and oil-producing allies (collectively known as OPEC +), and did not participate in the sanctions against Russia.
For the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United States remains its most important regional security partner, but now the “return to Asia ” is a foregone conclusion.
Under these circumstances, although the Gulf countries will not immediately abandon the United States, they will increase their interaction with other foreign powers in the consideration of national interests, in order to spread the geopolitical risks of excessive border selection.
The neutrality of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the Russia-Ukraine conflict reflects their increasingly close interaction with Russia and the re-emergence of a Cold War order in the Middle East.
In South Asia, India ’ s position is an indicator.
As early as the outbreak of the war on February 24, it did not participate in the sanctions against Russia, but also took advantage of the decline in the price of Russian energy exports to expand imports of Russian crude oil.
Just over a month after the start of the war, Russia and Ukraine purchased 13 million barrels of Russian crude oil, almost matching the 16 million barrels for the entire year of 2021.
In doing so, in addition to relying heavily on Russian arms, India also intends to strengthen its own "chess player" status in the Indo-Pacific.
If India chooses to be mediated by the United States and sanction Russia, it may prompt Moscow to lean further towards Beijing, so that in the face of the Sino-Indian border conflict, India will have an additional strategic risk. After all, it can not ensure that Russia will maintain its neutral role of non-interference, as it has in the past.
In this context, cooperation with Russia has become the leverage that India uses to offset the United States, and rejection of the United States has become the basis for India to price Russia. At the end of the day, India still puts its national interests first.
At the turn of Europe and Asia, there is also a regional power through the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which began to open the left and right of the border, and that is Turkey.
On December 6, 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited India and met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi.
(AP)
From Iraq to NATO.
First, there is the cross-border attack on the northern part of Iraq.
In the early hours of April 18, local time, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced that a new round of cross-border military strikes against the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), codenamed Operation Claw-lock, was launched in northern Iraq's Metina, Zap and Avashin regions. (The ock).
In this operation, Turkey first sent F-16 fighters and "Anka-B" drones to carry out large-scale air raids on the Kurdistan camp, then sent the Turkish Army to sharpen the 5th Commando Brigade, carrying "Black Hawk" helicopters into the Kurdistan hinterland to carry out special operations; at the same time, the Turkish ground mobile forces also started from the Turkish-Iraqi border, along the E-90 highway. The Kurdistan Autonomous Region (Ikud) is an attempt to encircle the base of the Kurdistan Workers' Party.
From the perspective of Turkey's deployment, the ideal goal should be to control the Iraq-Turkey border crossing, create a "safe zone" and permanent military base, and then open the actual land bridge between this and the "safe zone" controlled by northern Syria, in order to keep the PKK forces out of Turkey.
However, because the Kurdistan Workers Party has rich experience in mountain warfare, Turkey may fall into a protracted war here, as long as the Kurdistan Workers Party can survive September, the mountains on the Iraq-Turkey border will be covered by autumn and winter rain, and the Turkish army will be forced to withdraw.
To this day, the "claw lock operation" is still underway, and there are casualties on both sides of the Turku, and the actual results of the battle have not been released to the outside world.
In addition to attacking the Iraqi Workers' Party, Turkey has actively charged the United States and Europe on the issue of Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO.
Pictured, on May 18, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on NATO members to respect Turkey 's concerns at the parliament in Ankara. (AP)
As early as May 13, before Finland and Sweden formally stated their position, Turkey publicly opposed the two countries to join NATO, and on the 16th made two key demands: Finland and Sweden should stop supporting the Kurdistan Workers Party, and the United States needs to lift the arms export ban imposed on Turkey.
In response to the allegation that "Finland and Sweden support the PKK", Turkey also explained: First, Finland and Sweden sheltered six and 11 PKK members respectively, "who may have ties to Fethullah Gulen, who is currently living in the United States and masterminded the 2016 coup"; second, in 2019, PKK supporters held a rally in support of Gulen in a Swedish shopping center. The Swedish police did not stop it.
On May 18, after the formal application of Finland and Sweden, Turkey still did not change its position, but reiterated its request again and said that "there is no need to send a delegation to convince Turkey".
And since NATO ’ s addition requires the unanimous consent of the member states, Turkey ’ s “one-man relationship ” has indeed triggered multiple surprises from the United States, Finland and Sweden.
White House spokesman Jen Psaki said Washington was “working to clarify Turkey ’ s position, ” while Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said he had spoken with Recep Tayyip Erdogan in April but had not made a similar request.
Negotiations are still ongoing, and Turkey said at a meeting of NATO ambassadors on Wednesday that “some issues related to Finland and Sweden ’ s accession to NATO still need to be resolved, ” according to The Washington Post.
Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced Finland ’ s national security policy decision at a press conference in Helsinki on May 15, 2022. The Finnish President and the Government ’ s Ministerial Committee on Foreign and Security Policy approved Finland ’ s application to join NATO.
Geographical calculations of Turkey
Looking at the above performance of Turkey, it can be said that it is taking advantage of the protracted unresolved Russian-Ukrainian conflict to advance its own geographical planning.
When it comes to attacking northern Iraq, Turkey has set its sights on creating a “safe zone ” around Turkey to counter the threat of Kurdish separatist infiltration and repatriate some of its refugees.
In October 2019, Turkey took advantage of the US military ’ s massive withdrawal from Syria and launched a cross-border military operation code-named Operation Peace Spring to attack Kurdish forces on the Syrian border.
In the end, although Turkey succeeded in delineating a security buffer between its homeland and Rojava (the Kurdish government in Syria), it had to accept the reality that it had to coexist with the Russian army in northern Syria.
However, this cross-border attack on the Iraqi Workers' Party in the north has made the international situation around Turkey much more favorable.
First, at present, the strategic focus of the United States and Russia is on Ukraine, and even if the United States can be distracted, the importance of the Indo-Pacific is better than the Middle East, and Turkey can minimize the degree of major power constraints; second, the Turkish military operation to a certain extent, with the tacit approval of the Iraqi government and the support of the Iraqi authorities.
The former has always been inaccessible to the Kurdish forces in the north, and the latter, although a member of the Kurdish forces, has been wary of the entrenchment of the PKK. Therefore, after the launch of the "claw lock" operation, the Iraqi government publicly declared that the military operation was the result of the decision of the PKK and Turkey to "strengthen cooperation to promote security and stability".
In a previous interview with The Economist, French President Emmanuel Macron criticized Turkey ’ s rash attack on Kurds in Syria as one of the cases of “NATO brain death. ”
In response, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (second from left) angrily criticized Macron, saying, “You should check if you are brain dead. ” (AP)
As for Finland and Sweden's entry into NATO, Turkey's plan has nothing to do with the Kurdish issue, and it is not even really to prevent the two countries from joining, but to create its own Eurasian "chess player" status by "preventing the expansion of NATO".
To be sure, the request for the extradition of members of the overseas Kurdistan Workers Party and the Gulen Organization, although Turkey ’ s continued foreign policy, has rarely become a diplomatic issue in recent years, and Gulen himself has been in exile in the United States for a long time and has received political asylum.
Turkey will struggle on this issue, and its real purpose remains to disrupt the US layout and force the latter to agree to a series of Turkish demands, from lifting the arms export ban on Turkey, increasing economic and trade investment, to resuming the F-35 fighter order that was terminated because Turkey purchased the Russian S-400 missile defense system.
Although from a practical point of view, Finland, Sweden and the United States may not be able to fully agree, even a partial concession is an additional strategic gain for Turkey. With the upcoming presidential election in Turkey in 2023, Erdogan is facing a domestic dilemma of mass inflation and rising prices.
In addition, the Turkish army is now fighting in northern Iraq, and involvement in the NATO issue will enable Turkey to have a geopolitical status, which can attract the joint fight of the United States and Russia to a certain extent, and help to consolidate the external environment that separates the major powers from the battlefield.
Looking at the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States and Russia are both dependent on Turkey.
Before the outbreak of the Bucha incident, Turkey had hosted a number of Russian-Ukrainian diplomatic negotiations; after the renewal of the NATO expansion issue, Turkey began to make a double-sided offer. In the final analysis, Turkey's special strategic location and NATO membership status have made it an unexpected hub in the game between the United States and NATO, and have a new opportunity to promote the "security zone".
You may be interested

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India's participation in multilateral organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has allowed it to maintain ties with Russia while balancing its rivalry with China, as evidenced by India's insistence on restoring the status quo in border disputes with Beijing.

Title:

Content:   • SHARE

Toward the end of March, an unusual sequence of diplomatic visitors passed through India’s capital.

First came Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg and U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland. They were followed by Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The parade continued. Next to arrive were Gabriele Visentin, the European Union’s special envoy for the Indo-Pacific; Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico’s foreign minister; Jens Plotner, foreign and security policy adviser to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz; and Geoffrey van Leeuwen, foreign affairs and defense adviser to Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Last and by no means least were U.S. deputy national security adviser Daleep Singh, U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. There was also an online Indo-Australian summit.

The Ukraine war has exposed India’s strategic vulnerabilities in a tough neighborhood as arguably nothing else could, raising fundamental questions about the country’s global position and regional security. But, paradoxically — as the slew of recent high-profile visits confirms — the conflict has increased India’s strategic importance and, in the short term, widened its options.

Has Prime Minister Narendra Modi used this room for maneuver well? The West, even as it seeks to line up India on its side vis-a-vis Ukraine, has signaled its understanding of India’s dependence on Russia for vital defense equipment and long history of close diplomatic relations with the Kremlin.

China has been somewhat surprised to find itself on the same page as India regarding the war. Both countries abstained in a series of United Nations votes condemning the Russian invasion and have maintained their communication channels with the Kremlin despite Western sanctions. China has been asking for restoration of “normal” bilateral relations with India, which have been in a deep freeze since violent border clashes in June 2020 killed 20 Indian soldiers. “The world will listen when China and India speak with one voice,” Wang reportedly stated on his recent visit to Delhi.

Russia, no doubt eager to thank India for “understanding” the Kremlin’s position, has offered the country economic incentives — notably, discounted oil and gas and affordable fertilizer — to dissuade it from changing its stance.

While India’s long-standing focus on “strategic autonomy” has kept it out of formal alliances, its broad geopolitical orientation has been veering toward a special partnership with the United States, notably in the Indo-Pacific. India is a member of the U.S.-led “Quad,” an informal grouping also including Japan and Australia that is widely seen as a way to check China’s regional ambitions.

India has also significantly increased its defense purchases from the West in recent years, and, with the U.S., is seeking to modernize its manufacturing base for military equipment. This process is likely to be accelerated by India’s current realization that its dependence on Russian supplies imposes significant constraints, particularly in the event of a future border crisis with China.

Singh, the U.S. deputy national security adviser, pointedly warned of “consequences” should India breach the Western-led sanctions on Russia, and he urged India to recognize the diminishing value of its close relationship with the Kremlin. “The more Russia becomes China’s junior partner, the more leverage China gains over Russia, the less and less favorable that is for India’s strategic posture,” he told an Indian TV channel. “Does anyone think that if China breaches the Line of Actual Control, that Russia would now come to India’s defense? I don’t.”

China has been pushing the BRICS grouping (of which it is a member, along with Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as models of non-Western collaboration that can ensure a multipolar world order. But Chinese blandishments toward India are unlikely to succeed if China’s leaders are not willing to reverse their military gains from unprovoked Himalayan incursions in the spring of 2020. India will accept nothing less than a return to the status quo ante of April 2020 as the price for normalizing bilateral relations. But whether it can leverage China’s overtures to achieve results on the ground remains to be seen.

Russia, meanwhile, is aware that India’s refusal to condemn its assault on Ukraine does not imply support. India has at no stage endorsed the Russian military campaign and its language has notably hardened as the war has dragged on. Indian statements now pointedly refer to the inviolability of borders, respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states and the inadmissibility of resorting to force to resolve political disputes, even while calling on “both sides” to pursue diplomatic negotiations.

India has also been quick to provide humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, sending 90 tons of relief materials. As the destruction has become more intense, its aid is likely to continue. India will gladly purchase essential supplies of fuel and fertilizer from Russia at discounted rates in rubles. But its diplomatic stance and decreasing reliance on Russian defense equipment mean that it is not completely in Russia’s camp.

Still, India’s calls for peace in Ukraine would have been more credible had it taken steps to bring about that outcome. Whereas countries like Turkey and Israel have been actively engaged in peace diplomacy, India has made no effort to play a mediating role, despite at one point sending four cabinet ministers to Europe to supervise the evacuation of Indian citizens from Ukraine. Even Lavrov suggested in Delhi that India could help “support” a mediation process.

India could have used the diplomatic attention it has been getting over Ukraine to carve out a role worthy of its aspirations for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council. Sadly, its ambitions seem to have been too modest.

India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, observed in 1946 that “India, constituted as she is, cannot play a secondary part in the world. She will either count for a great deal or not count at all.” Ukraine is a test case — and the jury remains out. Will today’s India count at all?

Shashi Tharoor, a former U.N. under-secretary-general and former Indian minister of state for external affairs and minister of state for human resource development, is an MP for the Indian National Congress. © Project Syndicate, 2022

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What formal frameworks do India and Russia cooperate within?

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

Despite tensions with China, India has used its presence in BRICS and SCO to engage diplomatically with both Russia and China, with Russia often acting as a mediator to stabilize Sino-Indian relations through mechanisms like the Russia-India-China (RIC) dialogue.

Title:

Content: Wang Yi landed in India expert: China and India are expected to break the ice but still have suspicions | Deutsche Welle from Germany Introduction Germany | DW | 25.03.2022
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The political climate of the times
Wang Yi landed in India expert: China and India are expected to break the ice but there are still suspicions
This is the highest level visit between the two countries since the outbreak of bloody conflict on the Sino-Indian border in 2020.
Experts believe that the core issue of China and India is still the border, and Wang Yi may propose a mitigation plan on this trip.
At a time of turbulence in the Russia-Ukraine war, the two Asian powers are carefully balancing the West with Russia. What do experts think of the Sino-India-Russia triangular relationship?
In the past two years, China and India have held 15 military-level meetings, but the confrontation continues.
The Associated Press reported on the 24th that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in India on Thursday.
An Indian Foreign Ministry official confirmed to the Associated Press that Wang Yi will meet with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Friday.
Some Indian media said that during the period may also meet with Indian national security adviser Shri Ajit Doval. The discussion topic is not clear, but it is expected to talk about the Ukraine issue, China-India relations, and the BRICS summit to be held this year.
Wang Yi ’ s visit to India is highly regarded by the international community because it is the first time that such a high-level Chinese official has visited India since the bloody border conflict between China and India in 2020 and the diplomatic relations between the two countries have reached a low point.
In June 2020, a fierce conflict broke out in the disputed Kashmir region between China and India, killing 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese.
According to the Associated Press, the two countries have deployed tens of thousands of soldiers on the “actual control line on the Sino-Indian border, ” backed by artillery, tanks and fighter jets.
India and China have both withdrawn troops from parts of the border since February, but have retained additional military personnel at the border.
The two sides have met 15 times in the past two years, but the standoff continues.
The key is the border.
"The fundamental problem in Sino-Indian relations has not been solved, and the biggest problem is the border issue."
Liu Qifeng, an associate professor at Fleming University in India, told Deutsche Welle that he believes "the Indian side may be waiting for the Chinese side to come up with some conditions before talking to them."
Tsinghua University ’ s India Center deputy director, Fang Tien-chih, told Deutsche Welle, “What is more amazing is that the two sides are facing each other, but there is a hard border. ” He said that the past was a soft border, and there were conflicts between China and India in the disputed area.
“I don ’ t think that Wang Yi ’ s visit to India is to quarrel.
"We believe that the relationship between China and India is at an overall stage, and Wang Yi's visit should try to put forward some plans to improve the relationship between China and India."
He said the border standoff between China and India has not been resolved and relations between the two sides have not been normalized, but there have been some signs of moderation in the recent past.
The meeting between the foreign ministers of China and India took place nearly two years ago.
In addition to Wang Yi ’ s visit to India is an important indicator, Fang Tianchi mentioned that India ’ s new ambassador to China, who used to be a representative in Taiwan, understands Chinese and is familiar with Chinese affairs, was originally sent to the Netherlands, but his term of office has not yet ended and sent to China.
"It is possible that India wants to send him to speed up the settlement of the talks between China and India," Fang said. "From these indicators, China and India are willing to stabilize relations."
China's arrogance, India's distrust
There are long-term structural problems in Sino-Indian relations.
Fang Tianzhi believes that China does not take India ’ s feelings into account when making decisions, and does not pay too much attention to India ’ s interests. “China ’ s attitude towards India is more arrogant. ” Beijing often makes such mistakes in Sino-Indian relations.
“China-India relations remain an asymmetrical security threat.
"It is also easy for the Indian side to interpret China's actions as coming specifically to India."
Sometimes China does not deliberately target India, but India will magnify and the lack of mutual trust between the two sides will continue to worsen, which will seriously affect the long-term factor of China-India relations. ”
On the other hand, Liu Qifeng believes that on the Sino-Indian border issue, "the Chinese side actively deployed, including the establishment of bases on the border, and then slowly consolidated his voice and actual control over the line of control by means of cannibalization," compared with the progress of India's military hardware under the framework of the "Quad" (Quad).
"The Chinese side has become one-sided, hoping to put the situation in an oppressive way, and then ask India to come to the negotiating table, and on that condition, you accept it."
India doesn ’ t want to do that, ” says Liu.
China-India-Russia triangular relations
In BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China and India are key players.
Fang Tianzhi said, "If the relationship between the two of them is not good, the organization will not be too close."
In the past, Russia has been trying to pull India together.
After Putin visited India at the end of last year, it was reported that Russia wanted to convene the "Russia-India-China" tripartite mechanism (RIC).
This also means that Modi and Xi Jinping have a chance to meet, Fang said, but the relationship between China and India has deteriorated after 2020, and no bilateral talks have been held alone. "India is trying to maintain the participation of both sides, but it does not want to go directly to the other side."
Fang also pointed out that "when China and India voted in the United Nations on the Russia-Ukraine war issue, they almost all voted the same," and the two countries have become "embarrassed co-workers."
When the Sino-Indian border issue is not resolved, India does not want to give such an image to the outside world.
Liu Qifeng said that after Putin's visit to India, a reporter asked a spokesman for the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, if Russia plays a role as a peacemaker in the Sino-Indian border conflict, what does the Indian government think? The spokesman replied at the time: "He did not feel suitable for such an expression."
Virtual summit of the BRICS countries in 2021.
Liu Qifeng explained that India had hoped to control China through Moscow, but the change in the past year is that China also perceived such a function, and in turn called India to the negotiating table through Moscow, "India is very resistant to this."
He also believes that after the Russia-Ukraine war, the outside world has seen that India has been expressing support for Russia, but "a friendly attitude towards Russia will not spill over into relations with China."
India should still show restraint, and China should adopt a more conservative attitude in the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization before the 20th National Congress. “There should not be any breakthrough, ” Liu said.
Doing business with China in Taiwan?
India has always wanted to reduce its trade deficit and dependence on China ’ s economy, but Fang says it is still unable to do so on a practical level.
For example, India has been banning Chinese mobile apps for a while, "but it is amazing that he did not ban Chinese mobile phones because it cannot." Chinese mobile phones still have a high market share in India, which is reflected in many economic aspects, and India's demand and dependence on China is still very large.
Fang Tianzhi said that the economic and trade relationship between China and India will remain close in the short term.
He also added, "The wonderful impact of the war in Ukraine on Sino-Indian relations is that India and China have not participated in sanctions against Russia, and India even wants to buy more Russian crude oil, which is related to the fact that there is no way to use the US dollar for transactions, so India may use the value of both parties as a trading system, and may find a reference exchange rate, and may use the RMB."
It is also not ruled out that in the future, China, India and Russia will develop a trading system that can operate on their own, avoiding the assets of European and American countries.
But he also pointed out that at the same time, India is trying to distance itself from China, hoping to attract investment from other countries and encourage manufacturing in India.
Liu Qifeng pointed out that while Sino-Indian trade grew by 43% last year, it was regarded by many Indian scholars as a wake-up call.
“They think that if India becomes more and more dependent on China, then it is possible for China to hold India by the neck, or to blackmail India by some means, ” Liu said.“ Some people even say that India will become an economic colony of China. ”
“What India is learning is how to attract Chinese investment to benefit India in the face of a confrontation with the Chinese economy, ” said Liu. India is trying to learn some trade strategies from Taiwan.“ Because they understand that Taiwan is politically antagonistic to China, but Taiwanese business is doing well in China and they want to understand how Taiwan handles its relations with China. ”
“India ’ s basic need for relations with China is: you ’ re the enemy, we have border issues, but we ’ re going to continue doing business with you because what ’ s good for us is not trade, it ’ s investment. ”
I think this is India ’ s idea, ” says Liu.
(Interviewer: William Yang)
© 2022 Deutsche Welle Copyright Notice: All content in this article is protected by copyright law and may not be used without a special license from Deutsche Welle.
Any misconduct will lead to recovery and criminal prosecution.
DW.COM

What formal frameworks do India and Russia cooperate within?

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India's refusal to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its increased trade in discounted Russian oil have reinforced the perception of Russia as a critical ally, particularly in the context of India's strategic autonomy and its balancing act between major powers.

Title:

Content: 31 Dec, 2023 08:46

Deeper than diplomacy: There is a reason why New Delhi and Moscow rely on each other

Russia’s respect for India’s policy of strategic autonomy is the core strength of bilateral ties, as the Indian foreign minister’s latest visit proves

Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s five-day official visit to Russia was timely and significant for more than one reason.

India and Russia had held annual summits at the leadership level since 2000. This sent an important message in terms of the value attached by the two countries to bilateral ties, but it also conveyed a broader geopolitical message to other international partners of the two countries.

But this practice was broken largely because of Russia’s pre-occupation with the Ukraine conflict and its fallout. The last annual summit took place in 2021.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin could have held a summit on the margins of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in South Africa or the G20 summit in New Delhi, but Putin did not attend either. While Jaishankar’s visit does not substitute for a summit meeting, it was intended to fill a political gap.

Jaishankar and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have met six times during the year, and the Indian external affairs minister also met with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov during the year on the economic agenda. For Jaishankar to visit Russia before the end of the year, undeterred by the Russian winter and holiday season, reflects the importance both sides attach to the further expansion of ties.

Putin has on several occasions praised the Indian prime minister and positively noted the country’s economic progress. At the ‘Russia Calling’ Forum in early December this year, he said that despite pressure from others, he “cannot imagine that Modi could be frightened, intimidated or forced to take any actions, steps, decisions that would at variance with the national interest of India and the Indian people.” He noted that sometimes he is surprised at Modi’s tough stance on Indian national interests. He added that the policy pursued by Modi is the “main guarantor” of the developing bilateral ties.

This is high and unusual praise by Putin. It can be interpreted on several levels – particularly as an acknowledgement that India has resisted pressure from the US and others to condemn Russia over the Ukraine conflict, impose sanctions, and reduce defense ties with Russia. India has, on the contrary, bought discounted Russian oil to the point that Russia has become its biggest oil supplier. It has argued that ensuring this market flow of Russian oil has helped avoid a major spike in oil prices and checked global inflation. Indian-Russian trade has expanded, while the G7 has broken economic and trade ties with Russia.

India played a major role as G20 president in negotiating the part in the Leaders’ Declaration on the Ukraine conflict despite the hardening of the G7 position and that of Russia and China after the G20 summit in Bali. The final text does not mention Russia by name, while the G7 was satisfied that the general formulations in it could be sold as being directed at Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.

Not surprisingly, Putin complimented India for de-politicizing the G20. India chaired the SCO summit in July 2023 and participated in the BRICS summit in South Africa in August 2023. This countered G7 attempts to isolate Russia diplomatically. In fact, the New Delhi SCO Declaration spoke of more effective global institutions, a more representative, just, and multipolar world order based on international law and multilateralism, and criticized the unilateral application of economic sanctions – a clear critique of the Western-dominated global system.

It is against this backdrop that Putin received Jaishankar at the Kremlin, the first time that such a gesture has been made to him personally. The general unavailability of Putin to visiting foreign ministers is well-known.

Jaishankar delivered a personal message from Modi to Putin. During the meeting, Putin invited his “friend Modi” to visit Russia in 2024 and noted that Indian-Russian ties were on the whole developing well. He said that he had been briefing Modi on developments in Ukraine, remarking that he understands the Indian prime minister is willing to do his utmost to resolve the matter by peaceful means. He added that he would give additional information to Jaishankar on Ukraine.

India has continued to strengthen ties with the US, including in the defense domain. It is a member of the Quad and a strong supporter of the Indo-Pacific concept, both of which are intended to deter China’s regional ambitions. Russia has reservations about the Quad and the Indo-Pacific concept, which it sees as the US engaging in bloc politics in Asia.

Putin’s praise for Modi and India and the gesture of receiving Jaishankar takes into consideration these realities of India’s foreign policy which are meant to safeguard the larger national interests. At the core of this is Russia’s respect for India’s policy of strategic autonomy. Jaishankar’s high-profile visit and the vigorous language used to mark the importance of India’s traditional ties with Russia would have caught Washington’s attention.

Jaishankar noted that after talks with Lavrov, “what clearly came out was that India-Russia relations remain very steady, remain very strong, they are based on our strategic convergence, on our geopolitical interests, and because they are mutually beneficial.” The two leaders discussed political cooperation within international organizations such as BRICS, the SCO, etc.

Indian-Russian trade is at an all-time high, exceeding $50 billion last year, and should pass that figure this year. It includes energy, fertilizers, coking coal, and other items, for which long term arrangements were discussed. India intends to expand investments in Russia’s oil and gas sector.

On the nuclear side, two important amendments were agreed to which will take the Kudankulam nuclear power project forward. Mutual investments, progress on a bilateral investment treaty, and the resumption of negotiations between India and the Eurasian Economic Union for a free trade agreement will be resumed in the second half of January 2024.

Moscow and New Delhi will expand cooperation in the Russian Far East. India expects a large representation from this region at the Vibrant Gujarat Summit in January 2024.

Connectivity between India and Russia will be critical for expanding trade ties – connectivity from western India through the International North-South Transport Corridor, and connectivity from eastern India, from Chennai to Vladivostok, and the polar route. To promote tourism, India is open to increasing the number of flights from India every week.

The talks between Jaishankar and Lavrov were comprehensive. They discussed the global strategic situation, Ukraine, Gaza, the Indo-Pacific, ASEAN, Afghanistan, UN-related matters, the challenges facing the Global South, and the building of a multipolar order. China would undoubtedly have been discussed, but diplomatic discretion here would be normal.

In the joint press conference, Lavrov spoke of prospects for more defense cooperation, including joint production of modern weapons under New Delhi’s ‘Make in India’ program, and, importantly, expressed respect for India’s efforts to diversify its defense ties. He noted bilateral cooperation in rocket engine manufacturing and satellite navigation systems.

Jaishankar’s visit was productive in maintaining the momentum of Indian-Russian ties, which have been built over 60 years, a relationship that he believes is not just about politics, diplomacy, or economics, but is much deeper.

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How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

How has Russia/ India trade evolved since the start of the war in Ukraine?

India's purchases of Russian oil increased

How has trade level between India and Russia changed under Modi and Putin?

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

The personal rapport between Modi and Putin has significantly shaped India-Russia relations, with Putin praising Modi's commitment to India's national interests and strategic autonomy, which has allowed India to maintain strong ties with Russia despite Western pressure.

Modi and Putin's frequent engagements, including over 20 meetings since Modi's election in 2014, underscore their mutual commitment to sustaining a deep bilateral relationship amidst shifting global alliances.

Title:

Content: World News
Putin, Modi strengthen ties despite tensions over Ukraine
CAIRO (Reuters) - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ’ s current visit to Russia was highlighted by the Guardian newspaper, which said Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin were strengthening “ties of friendship ” despite tensions over the war in Ukraine.
The newspaper said in an analytical article published on Tuesday that Modi received a warm reception from Putin upon his arrival in Moscow.
Modi said the visit - his first since Russia's large-scale intervention in Ukraine - was aimed at strengthening "ties of friendship" between the two countries, and later described Russia as "India's all-weather friend and trusted ally".
Relations between India and Russia are deep, dating back to the Cold War, and Russia has long been India ’ s largest arms supplier.
Since his election in 2014, Modi has had a highly publicized relationship with Putin, with the two leaders holding more than 20 meetings.
However, Putin ’ s decision to intervene militarily in Ukraine in February 2022 put unprecedented strain on their relations and forced India onto a difficult path in balancing its relations with both Putin and the West.
India has refused to join Western countries in condemning Putin ’ s war and abstained in all UN votes condemning Russia.
It has also become the biggest buyer of cheap Russian oil and continues to send billions to state coffers, which some see as undermining Western sanctions efforts.
However, India ’ s dissatisfaction with Putin ’ s actions was not entirely hidden, with Modi saying that “now is not the age of war. ”
The Indian prime minister ’ s decision to strengthen ties with Western leaders who are Putin ’ s biggest critics, including U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, was met with a chill in the Kremlin.
Similarly, Putin ’ s increasingly close ties with Beijing are viewed with great suspicion in New Delhi.
But while the geopolitical landscape was markedly different from 2019, when Modi was last in Moscow, the two leaders went to great lengths to show their continued friendship during Modi ’ s visit that concluded this evening.
The Kremlin gladly spoke of Modi ’ s decision to make Russia one of his first international trips after winning a third term in office last month.
But Indian officials were more restrained, and New Delhi confirmed that the visit, Modi's first in five years, was about bilateral relations, adding that India was seeking to "play a supportive role for a peaceful and stable region."
At the official summit on Monday, Modi said he and Putin discussed everything from setting up new Indian embassies in Russia to increasing cooperation on trade.
However, the complexities surrounding India ’ s achievement of a delicate diplomatic balance over Ukraine have also been uncomfortably apparent.
The summit between Putin and Modi was also held on the same day as the start of the NATO summit in Washington, where Biden and other leaders are expected to announce a historic defense package for Ukraine.
At a dinner on Monday evening, Modi reportedly made his most direct appeal to Putin to end the war in Ukraine, telling the Russian president that “there is no solution on the battlefield. ”
However, few analysts believe Modi ’ s words will have any impact.
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What do Putin and Modi officially characterize Russia/ India relationship as?

India and Russia have prioritized connectivity projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor, which aim to enhance trade and strategic linkages in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific while countering China's Belt and Road Initiative.

Title:

Content:
India and Russia signed a program of cooperation to boost trade and joint investment projects in Russia's Far East Region during Modi-Putin talks on Tuesday. At the same time, they agreed to strengthen connectivity and security linkages in the Eurasian space and Indian and Pacific Oceans.

The 22nd Russia-India Annual Summit will lead to a greater collaboration between the two countries in Russian Far East and the Eurasian space, including the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), according to experts.

The 81-paragraphbilateral Joint Statement underscored the "shared vision" to enhance transport and connectivity cooperation, as well as a "solid commitment" to enhance economic linkages in Russia's resource-rich Far East, Pravesh Kumar Gupta, an Associate Fellow at New Delhi-based think tank Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), told Sputnik India.

The 22nd Annual Summit, a "unique and pivotal event in the current global geopolitical context" according to Gupta, exposed the disappointment of Western countries.

"Amidst global turbulence, the summit served as a crucial platform for leaders to engage in constructive discussions and strategic dialogues, with the aim of bolstering cooperation in vital areas such as trade, energy, connectivity, defence, and technology. This event has been widely acknowledged as a significant milestone in the ongoing development of the close ties between India and Russia, a success that stood in stark contrast to the disappointment felt by the Western world," the Indian think-tanker asserted.

Lauding the Summit outcomes, Gupta remarked that the leaders would intensify effort to develop "promising production and marketing chains in Eurasia" and stick to the new plan for the Far East in providing enhanced cooperation in different sectors, including transport and connectivity.

Specifically both leaders shared a vision pointing to three projects – International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor as well as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), or the Polar Route.

"Most importantly, these connectivity projects are free from any political agenda, unlike the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as clearly mentioned in the joint statement. Their implementation will be based on the principles of transparency, broad participation, local priorities, financial sustainability, and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations," the VIF pundit underlined.

Gupta expressed confidence that the proposal to establish a joint working group on developing the NSR would speed up the project, which promised "significant cost savings and reduced shipping times" for goods traveling between Europe and Asia.

"The route's increased accessibility due to melting Arctic ice has sparked increased interest in its potential for commercial shipping and trade, offering a bright future for global trade," Gupta stated.

In the context of the INSTC, the expert underscored that it could turn out to be the most "cost-effective and favourable" connectivity project to increase Indian exports to Eurasia and vice-versa. He explained that the 7,200-kilometre-long multimodal corridor was in line with Moscow's geo-economic focus on Asia-Pacific following the Ukraine conflict.

Russia, India To Implement The Idea of A 'Greater Eurasian Space'

In terms of bolstering cooperation in Asia-Pacific, or near India's own neighbourhood, Modi and Putin shared approaches on building a "new architecture" of a 'Greater Eurasian space'.

Although, initially Russia was focused primarily on the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, the Ukrainian conflict completely changed the situation, Alexey Kupriyanov, an expert in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) at Moscow-based think tank IMEMO RAS told Sputnik India.

At the same time, the think-tanker highlighted that a growing trade turnover between Russia and India was pushing Moscow to return to the Indian Ocean Region, primarily to ensure the protecting of Russian vessels in areas not covered by Indian Navy's operations, which include the Red Sea and the Mediterranean region.

"In the long term, this means that Russian ships will soon operate more intensively in the Indian Ocean and expand their presence," Kupriyanov stressed.

It would bolster India's security efforts and help it manage the power competition between China and the US, even as Indian Navy has intensified inter-operability with western maritime forces in recent years, the expert asserted.

"Since India's focus is primarily on the eastern part of the region, Russian ships in the western part could help fill the vacuum of security there. This will reduce the need for East African countries to seek help from China and the US to combat pirates, smugglers and drug traffickers," Kupriyanov concluded.

(With Inputs From Agencies)

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

In what regions do India and Russia have common strategic interests?

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India's rivalry with China has significantly influenced its participation in the INSTC, as the project allows India to bypass Pakistan and counter China's regional dominance by establishing alternative trade routes to Central Asia, Europe, and Russia.

Title:

Content: Kyrgyzstan conference stresses on importance of INSTC and Chabahar Port as alternative to BRI

An International Conference titled "INSTC (International North South Transport Corridor) and Chabahar Port in Iran

ANI | Bishkek (Kyrgystan) | Updated: 23-10-2022 23:22 IST | Created: 23-10-2022 23:22 IST
  • Country:
  • India

An International Conference titled "INSTC (International North South Transport Corridor) and Chabahar Port in Iran: An alternative to BRI" was held on Friday at Ala-Too University in Kyrgyzstan's capital city Bishkek. The conference was jointly organized by the Ala-Too University, Bishkek, and a think tank Burana Institute, Bishkek.

The conference was jointly inaugurated by Dr Zhydyzbek Zhakshylykov, Head of Science and Innovation Department, Ministry of Education, Kyrgyz Republic, and Dr Sanzharbek Erdolatov, Rector, Ala-Too University, Bishkek, the think tank informed in a release. Eminent scholars from Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Poland, Sweden, England, India, and Kyrgyzstan presented papers highlighting the importance and advantages of INSTC and Chabahar port for land-locked Central Asian, CIS countries and Russia.

Professor Ali Omidi from the University of Isfahan, Iran while speaking at the conference, spoke on Iran's role in strengthening Eurasian cooperation through the corridor. He also quoted the phrase "If you want to become Powerful, First Make a Road." While talking about the geopolitical importance of INSTC and Chabahar Port for India, the author said "The INSTC and Chabahar-Central Asia Corridors are of strategic importance for India, as they facilitate trade with Russia, Europe, as well as Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing its regional rival, Pakistan."

"But the main goal of New Delhi through the North-South Corridor and Chabahar-Central Asia is to increase its geopolitical influence in the resource-rich republics of Central Asia, which India considers as a source of energy supply and a large market for Indian goods," he said. "Chabahar port for India will reduce the transportation costs by 60% and the time of transporting goods to Central Asia by 50%. India's first export shipment from Chabahar was destined to Afghanistan in 2017 in the form of a 130,000-ton wheat shipment," he said as per the think tank.

Emphasizing Iran's geographical location, he called Iran's position as strategic by saying "Iran's position in the INSTC and Chabahar-Central Asia is strategic because of its geographical location that connects the Persian Gulf to Afghanistan and Eurasia." "Of course, Iran does not see itself as the stage of geopolitical rivalry between regional and global powers and welcomes infrastructure investments from different countries," he said.

Professor Sos Khachikyan from the Armenian State University of Economics during her presentation focussed on India-Iran relations within the INSTC-Armenia context. She spoke in detail about the INSTC project from the Armenian perspective, which is a thought-provoking one. In his speech, he said that India and Iran have the potential, as well as the necessity to be involved in worldwide transnational projects because of the following two factors: -

"Firstly, India is one of the emerging countries of the world with significant technological achievements and an increasing role in the Pacific region. Secondly, Iran proved the ability to provide technological development under the sanctions and to have a decisive role in regional stability," she said. "India and Iran, as emerging Asian countries with strong traditions of trade, don't have direct lines between each other within Eurasian corridors," she added.

She also said that Armenia could play a significant role to offer an alternative corridor to connect India and Iran with Europe through Georgia and the Black Sea. "Armenia is the only country that signed the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the European Union, as well as is membership to the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)," she said.

Dr Shatlyk Amanov, Suleyman Demirel University, Almaty, Kazakhstan gave a presentation on "India's Eurasian ambitions and the INSTC: Insights from the 'South-South Cooperation 3.0' model". Dr Amanov said India's Eurasian ambitions are based on the "Connect Central Asia Policy". INSTC was agreed upon in 2000 and ratified in 2002 by India, Iran, and Russia, and trial runs were conducted in 2016.

"The INSTC is a burgeoning multimodal connectivity project designed to link India to Iran and, through the Caspian basin, to Russia and reaching further to the North. Since its announcement, the project has been accompanied by active scholarly debate over its viability, relevancy, and scope," he said. Dr Amanov quoted "India is building its position as a leader in South-South cooperation, much like it played a key role in the Non-Aligned Movement. South-South cooperation has traditionally been an important pillar of India's foreign policy and diplomacy." (OECD, 2012).

Dr Rajkumar Sharma, Post-Doc Fellow, Delhi School of Transnational Affairs, University of Delhi gave a presentation (via video conference) on "India has the geographical and economic potential to bring together Eurasia and Indo-Pacific via INSTC". During his speech, Dr Sharma said that there has been big power jostling in Eurasia for connectivity as the US, Russia, China, European Union, and India have been making efforts to achieve their respective connectivity visions in the region.

"India, by the virtue of its geographical location, is a continental (Eurasian) and maritime (Indo-Pacific) power. India has the geographical and economic potential to bring together Eurasia and Indo-Pacific via INSTC," Sharma said. "The proposed INSTC plan is 40% shorter and 30% cheaper than the BRI - an enticing economic opportunity for India. The impact of INSTC could potentially decrease Afghanistan's economic dependency on Pakistan. Chabahar route is 800km shorter than the Karachi port route," Sharma added.

Rouslan Jalil, Lecturer at the OSCE Academy, Bishkek, and co-founder and Director of the Burana Institute, a Bishkek-based think-tank concluded the session by speaking on the "Concept of Democracy is not alien to India" "INSTC might serve as a soft power tool for establishing India's economic and political influence. However, China promoted BRI is shaped by Chinese political ideology, and one cannot have any expectations of movement of democratic ideas, concepts or practices along the BRI route," Jalil said.

"A concept of democracy is not alien to India and whether India will also export such concepts along this route to Central Asia and further?" he asked while concluding the session, the think tank stated. (ANI)

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

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In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

In what regions do India and Russia have common strategic interests?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India's involvement in the INSTC aligns with its broader geopolitical strategy to reduce dependency on Chinese-dominated corridors and enhance its influence in Eurasia, leveraging its geographical position to connect the Indo-Pacific with Eurasian markets.

Title:

Content: Xi Jinping steps forward and Modi comes back: Will the “China-India ” summit rewrite the Belt and Road geography?
Photo Credit: Reuters
What we want you to know is
It is possible to gain a deeper understanding of Russia ’ s intentions towards Central Asia, and indirectly to understand Russia ’ s actions towards Ukraine.
Text: Lin Quanzhong (Doctor of Law, University of Tokyo, former Associate Research Fellow, Academia Sinica), Yerkin Nazarbay (MSc in Economic Sciences, National University of Kazakhstan, PhD candidate, Department of International Relations, Wuhan University)
After Kazakhstan ’ s “Bloody January ” calmed down, the leaders of the five Central Asian countries jointly attended a video summit hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping on January 25 to mark the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Asia.
As the summit was held in the special context of the “Cold War ” between China and the United States and the“ friendship ” between China and Russia, China ’ s “New Central Asia Strategy ” has become the focus of attention of all parties.
During this period, issues such as preventing the "color revolution", combating the "three forces", strengthening the regional "soft power", and deepening regional transport integration and economic and trade interaction will elevate the strategic position of Central Asia as the core of the "Belt and Road" to a new height, which is equivalent to "returning to Central Asia".
The Unexpected First China-India Summit
Unlike in the past, what shocked all parties was that the leaders of the Central Asian countries attended the first China-India Summit in the same form two days later, initiated by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, making one wonder whether this was a “dragon dance ” or a“ dragon fight ” in New Delhi.
What is the purpose of the five heads of state of Central Asia responding so positively to the "integration of Central and South Asia"?
Needless to say, with the simultaneous deepening of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" of the United States and the "North-South Strategy" of Russia, India has become a key country in the maritime strategy of the two continents with its special geographical location and historical origins, which has greatly benefited it.
India is also firmly grasping the historical opportunity at this critical point, and has launched an unprecedented "northward strategy" to break the existing pattern and become an exporter of the new order in the region, and on this basis to remove the stumbling block to the rise of the country.
As the world ’ s largest emerging economy, India, together with Russia and the five Central Asian countries, can make up the regional geopolitical power vacuum caused by the strategic retreat of the US military, not only can sweep away the land security risks that threaten the stability of its northwestern development, but also can serve as the basis for breaking the existing regional geo-economic pattern, on the one hand, to create a new land and sea multi-regional economic cooperation framework and strategic corridor, on the other. The New Source of Order Exports.
Therefore, in the process of regional economic "new integration" led by "North" Russia and "South" India respectively, it is key to continue to promote the "Afghan reconstruction process" and the "International North-South Transit Corridor" (International North-South Transit Corridor) interface, among which maintaining and strengthening the diversified development direction of Afghan national construction is the top priority.
China-India relations are based on a long history of friendship.
India is no stranger to Central Asia and has never seen it as a threat, but rather as a staunch “ally. ”
For Uzbekistan, India ’ s last dynasty, the Mughal Empire, was built by the descendants of its ancestor, Amir Timur, and thus belonged to a “brotherly state ”.
For Kazakhs, the Mughal Empire, which conquered the Indian subcontinent, was a holding force to avoid the continued expansion of the regime in the river (mainly in present-day Uzbekistan).
Since the beginning of modern times, Central and South Asia have suffered the same historical fate as independent territories, that is, they have been colonized by Russia and the United Kingdom.
The North-South expansion between Russia and Britain triggered the first round of the great power game in the heart of Eurasia, and in the name of buffer, created Afghanistan, which is neither part of South Asia, nor part of Central Asia, nor part of the Middle East.
After India ’ s independence, Soviet-Indian relations flourished with the intensification of Soviet-Chinese rivalry and the India-Pakistan conflict.
In the process, Central Asia played the role of “mediator ” in the Tashkent Declaration to quell the Second Indo-Pakistani War, making Uzbekistan an axis for balancing the geopolitical landscape of the South Asian subcontinent.
The "China-India" relationship after the dissolution of the Soviet Union was continued on the basis of the original Soviet-Indian friendship.
The Common Geoeconomic Benefits of Promoting Regional Integration in Central and South Asia
The key to India ’ s “northbound strategy ” lies in the successful integration of the north-south regional railway between the Central Asian section of northern Afghanistan and the western Iranian section.
Through the "International North-South Transport Corridor" promoted by Russia, the diversification process of the development of the national state of Afghanistan is consolidated, and the Pashto in Afghanistan are forced to integrate into the "pluralistic Afghanistan" at the same time, causing the "Durand Line crisis", thereby changing the status quo in Kashmir, and finally turning the tide and taking the world.
Unlike the Korean 38th Line, the Duran Line formed in the late 19th century as a product of the Second Anglo-Afghan War, its core purpose was to defend the land security of British India by dividing the Pashtuns on both sides of the line into two, and on this basis to weaken the political power of the Pashtuns on both sides of the line, thereby consolidating itself as a “buffer state ” in Central Asia. Absolute influence in Afghanistan prevented and prevented Russia from continuing further south.
However, since the partition of India and Pakistan in the mid-20th century, the Duran Line has become the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the Pashtuns on both sides of the line, respectively, are the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan and the second largest ethnic group in Pakistan, no longer a regional "unilateral defense object", but rather a "multi-use object", and their geo-strategic value has been greatly increased.
After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Pashtuns, as one of the central forces of regional resistance, gradually evolved into the main export object of Saudi Wahhabism ideology (the Taliban), which was incompatible with the traditional Islamic Sunni Hanafi ideology in Central Asia, and inevitably led to the emergence of Tajik, Hazara (northern Afghanistan). The general resistance of northern peoples, such as the Hazaras and Uzbekistan, led to protracted warlords' conflagration, which led to a protracted "state of civil war" in Afghanistan.
In the process, the Pashtun agglomeration area on the Pakistani side has always played the role of big back, providing the resources needed to build the Great Pushtustan from start to finish.
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In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

Under Modi's tenure, public perceptions in India have largely viewed Russia as a steady and reliable partner, with External Affairs Minister Jaishankar emphasizing the unique and enduring nature of the bilateral relationship despite global turbulence.

Title:

Content: All news

India’s top diplomat highlights 'steady' relations between New Delhi, Moscow

Subrahmanyam Jaishankar addressed the event that discussed the results of the foreign policy course Narendra Modi’s government has pursued in the past nine years

NEW DELHI, June 29. /TASS/. Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar explained the status of his country’s relations with Russia as he said those were unique and steady, despite the global turbulence and the pressure that is being exerted on New Delhi.

"This relationship with Russia has kept steady despite all the turbulence in the world. It is, actually, for us a very unique relationship - I think, in some ways, for the Russians, also. In this period, for all the pressures on us, I think we made our own evaluation of the importance of this relationship. <…> Sometimes, this relationship is dumbed down to things like `oh, we are dependent on them for arms’. I think it’s far more complex," ANI quoted Jaishankar as saying during a roundtable in New Delhi on Wednesday.

He pointed to a "geopolitical logic" for what New Delhi has been doing with Russia. "Today, many things which we were working on even prior to 2022, which is how to expand our economic cooperation, those have born fruition. So, we actually have an upswing in the economic part of the relationship with Russia, even as you have very steady politics, and continuing security cooperation," the Indian foreign minister said.

India's top diplomat addressed the event that discussed the results of the foreign policy course Narendra Modi’s government has pursued in the past nine years. Commenting on India’s relations with the United States, Jaishankar said they were "exceptionally good" and expressed the hope that the two countries would conclude the Free Trade agreement.

He also noted growing interaction with Europe in the past nine years and said that India was passing through a "difficult phase" with China amid what he called an abnormal situation on the border with its neighbor.

What do Putin and Modi officially characterize Russia/ India relationship as?

India's increasing focus on defense indigenization under the 'Make in India' initiative has reduced its reliance on Russian arms, with the share of Russian imports in India's defense procurement declining from over 65% to approximately 49% in the last decade.

Title:

Content: Follow Us:

Putin visiting India: Is it strategic balancing?

By Major General S.B. Asthana
With heated exchanges between the US and Russia due to heavy concentration of troops in Ukraine border scheduled for talks between both, Russias growing dependency on China due to sanctions from West, and Indian tilt towards the US with inclusion in Quad, the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India on December 6, appears to be viewed differently by different world players. Even in domestic debates, the public anger due to Chinese intrusion in Ladakh and growing partnership of Russia and China, indicates that the visit is sensitive in context of international geopolitical scenario; hence will require a delicate strategic balancing including text of joint statement, if issued at the end of the visit. Notwithstanding the above, the visit is a scheduled 21st India-Russia Annual Summit, which couldnt take place earlier due to coronavirus pandemic, there are many justified reasons to continue with 'Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty (1971)' matured into 'Strategic Partnership (2000)', which has stood the test of time till date, even during ongoing rough relations between China and India.

Why Russia Matters to India Despite Chinese Embrace?

Despite Indian effort for Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence manufacturing and SIPRI indicating significant 33 per cent decrease in import of military hardware by India in recent years, it remains heavily dependent on Russian technology, maintenance, procurement of hardware and spares. For many decades Russians have been collaborating with India in its indigenous manufacturing programs and were amenable to transfer of technology, which India was finding difficult to get from others. It includes some major systems like nuclear-powered submarines, warships/frigates, nuclear reactors, space programmes and flagship projects like Brahmos.

The impending visit, besides deal to commence indigenous manufacturing of AK 203 Kalashnikov rifles, may see some forward movement in collaboration in manufacturing (including transfer of technology of very short range air defence missile systems (VSHORADS), twin engine helicopters to replace Cheetah and Chetak, upgradation of inventory of MIG-29 and Sukhoi aircrafts. S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile system which India had signed in 2018 for $5.43 billion is a done deal, and the threat of CAATSA is unlikely to have any impact on delivery schedule. It was chosen because it was most suitable to Indian requirement at that point of time. There are also speculations of approximately ten agreements to be signed between the two countries, which could include reciprocal exchange of logistics Agreement and 10-year military technical agreement, besides Two plus Two dialogue to strengthen existing strategic partnership. While the US may be amenable to a waiver on CAATSA for S-400, in view of common China challenge, but further deals may create some new friction points in strengthening of Indo-US relations.

On strategic context, Russia continues to be a favourable P5 member in UN and continues to support India in various multilateral organisations like the UN, SCO, BRICS on crucial issues. It's a technological powerhouse, with one of the largest producer of military hardware, producing rugged equipment suited for variety of terrain, where Indian forces operate. While its nearness to China, its discomfort with Indian embrace to Quad, growing Indo-US partnership, and hardware sale to Pakistan, forces some of the opinion makers in India to suggest divorcing Russia in favour of US, but such opinions are marred by impracticality, ignorance of Indian hardware dependency on Russia and its track record of reliability of its partnership with India. In its revised Military Strategy document Russia continues to name India as its partner along with China, and has not delayed/defaulted on any hardware support to India, even during standoff with China. The interest of both countries also coincide regarding concerns on export of terror after Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan and resultant humanitarian crisis, which will certainly be a subject of discussion and may find some mention in joint statement.

Reality of Sino-Russian Embrace

The much publicised Sino-Russian embrace by Chinese media and Russian acceptance to go along has been due to economic compulsions due to increasing sanctions from West, common adversary US branding both as competitors in security strategy documents. Objectively an expansionist, aggressive China seeking Sino-centric world order does suit Russia as well, which is looking for multilateral world order. Chinese BRI has already side-lined Eurasian dream, its technological theft like alleged hypersonic technology proliferation and increasing border claims in previously settled border with Tajikistan are not to Russian liking. Russia has made no commitment to back China's misadventure in South China Sea/Himalayas and China has also not made any commitment on Ukraine borders. Reiterating India as a strategic partner may be Moscow's message to US and Beijing both. It is however, impractical to expect Russia criticising China or Pakistan or India discussing Ukraine issue during this visit, due to peculiar geo-political equations, and Russians need for strategic and economic balancing.

Strategic Balancing by India

India and US have commonality of Interest in most issues including tackling China, which has pushed India to become an important global strategic partner of US, by its aggressive designs. There is congruence of interests in most global issues between US and India in the current geo-strategic equation. India stands with US and Quad in context of Indo-Pacific and facing China challenge. India continues to do its best to respond to sensitivities and concerns of the US, at times risking some of its old relationships like Iran. To accommodate US interest India reduced import of oil from Iran, bearing a cost disadvantage, as Iran oil was being imported in Rupee terms, in crude form and attuned to existing refineries in India. India doesn't seem to be repeating the same mistake with Russians, who haven't done anything bilaterally which demands a divorce in mutual relationship. Moreover, military capacity building of India also adds to collective strength of Quad, which is in collective interest.

Lately India is trying to be self-reliant, as well as diversifying procurement from various countries to include US, France, Israel. In last decade the defence procurement from Russia has gradually reduced from over 65 percent approximately to nearly 49 percent and correspondingly increased in favour of the US, Israel and France. There is a noticeable upward trend in purchase of US military hardware, as the year 2020 alone saw a purchase $3.4 billion worth of US military equipment, indicating enough accommodation by India. In a buyers' market US has competitors to include Russia, Israel and France, and every country will make sovereign choice to pick the best deal including India. India has also made modest beginning in exporting Rs 38,000 crore worth of military equipment, as a step towards self-reliance, seeking support of all the partners.

(Major General S.B.Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)

--IANS
asthana/ksk/

How has Russia/ India arms trade evolved since the start of the war in Ukraine?

Despite these changes, India continues to rely on Russia for critical defense technologies, such as the S-400 missile system and BrahMos missile propulsion, which remain integral to India's military capabilities and its strategic response to China's assertiveness.

Title:

Content: Under pressure, will India abandon Russia?
Author: External Submission
Published: Updated:
Recently, Sameer Lalwani, a senior expert at the Asia Center of the American Institute of Peace, and Happymon Jacob, an associate professor of diplomacy and disarmament at Nehru University, wrote that in the short and medium term, the foundation of Russian-Indian relations is still very solid, and in the long term, Indian-Russian relations are on a long-term downward trend, from partnership to trading. "Change".
Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, major democracies have come together to defend Ukraine by condemning Russia ’ s military actions.
But India did not join in, opting instead to abstain in a key UN vote and refusing to condemn its longtime partner, Russia.
Many countries expressed disappointment with India's stance on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
However, some observers believe that India has shown signs of considering a rupture with Russia, and India may change its previous neutral course. In September 2022, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin that “today ’ s era is not an era of war ”, a phrase that seemed to warn Russia, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Modi ’ s stance“ significant. ”
American political scientist Happymon Jacob also wrote that the Indian government is weakening its “long-term partnership ” with Russia and is committed to closer cooperation with the United States.
Based on the interpretation of these events, India needs to strengthen its cooperation with the West and is alienating Russia.
However, the view that "India and Russia will part ways" is too "taken for granted" and does not reflect realistic possibilities.
It is true that in the context of Russia ’ s growing economic dependence on China and its provision of unreliable weapons to India, India should theoretically move away from Russia and promote diversification of partnerships, but this is not realistic or feasible.
The United States, the first Western country to win over India on a number of issues, turned a blind eye to the human rights dispute.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden at last year ’ s G20 summit. (Reuters)
In fact, India is not ready to give up the India-Russia partnership, and in November 2022, Indian Foreign Minister Sujishin visited Russia, stressing that the relationship between the two countries is “strong and stable. ”
For this reason, US policymakers still need to make policy plans around the reality of a lasting India-Russia relationship, but they should also make India realize that Russia is a burden; the United States cannot punish and sanction India because of the close India-Russia relationship.
Because for the United States, India can play a more prominent and more active role in the Indo-Pacific region.
The False Dawn
Analysts have concluded that India is trying to distance itself from Russia based on what Indian officials say, including Modi ’ s verbal confrontation with Putin in September 2022, a vote against Russia at the United Nations, and the cancellation of a multi-billion dollar Russian weapons procurement program (fighters and helicopters).
However, these developments do not mean that India has explicitly chosen to stay away from Russia.
The Washington Post called Modi ’ s September 2022 statement to Putin a “rebuke. ”
But in fact, Modi ’ s statement was not intended primarily to address the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but to express concern about rising food and energy prices.
Several assessment reports issued in India have warned against over-reading Modi ’ s remarks, which are no different from the official position of India in the past that the war has inflicted great trauma on developing countries.
It is undeniable that India has indeed sided with the West in some of the UN ’ s procedural votes, such as allowing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to speak at the UN General Assembly in September 2022.
But in more substantive votes, such as the October 2022 vote on four regions of Russia ’ s military campaign in Ukraine, India abstained.
In addition, in early 2022, India cancelled several agreements to purchase Russian weapons (such as the MiG-29 fighter).
But the decision has little to do with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and is more about promoting domestic arms production and supporting India ’ s “self-reliance ” program.
A few months before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict erupted, the Indian government had planned to cancel these deals, including the purchase of Boeing P-8I aircraft from the United States, in favor of domestically produced weapons.
But India will still buy major weapons such as S-400 air defense systems, stealth frigates and nuclear submarines from Russia, which means India will be tied to Russia for decades to come.
In fact, India cannot really break with Russia, because Russian-made weapons account for a large share of India ’ s arsenal, and Russia still plays a significant role in India ’ s geopolitical considerations, so most of India ’ s political elite still prefer friendly Indian-Russian relations.
India can ’ t really break with Russia because Russian-made weapons make up the bulk of India ’ s arsenal and most of India ’ s political elite still prefer friendly India-Russia relations.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
(Reuters)
(2) Patience and persistence
India has long regarded Russia as a valued partner in its “multidirectional alliance ” strategy.
Within the framework of this strategy, India wants to maintain a constructive strategic partnership with several major powers at the same time, but refuses to form an exclusive alliance with any major powers.
India ’ s leaders believe that the “multidirectional alliance ” strategy is still valid today because Western analysts have misjudged Russia in several important ways.
The authors ’ study found that despite strong Western sanctions against Russia, Indian national security officials still believe in Russia ’ s endurance and durability.
They expect Europe to struggle under pressure from inflation and energy shortages, while Russia ’ s economy will be boosted by rising commodity prices.
After all, Indian companies are investing in Russian energy projects, such as oil and gas extraction projects in Sakhalin, Russia ’ s Far East.
In addition, India has doubled its investment in future India-Russia cooperation in defense technology research and development (including the development of the Brahmos cruise missile).
The leaders also believe that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is likely to turn into a military stalemate that will culminate in a negotiated cease-fire and that Russia will eventually be allowed to reintegrate into the international community.
Indian policymakers also believe that Russia will remain an important geopolitical force that will help India.
India relies on Russia for missile technology, submarine nuclear reactors, and hypersonic weapons, and Russia can still provide diplomatic support to India in the United Nations Security Council, which can exert influence on India ’ s other continental neighbors.
In addition, with the Russian regime in turmoil, Indian officials want to be able to extract more benefits from their dealings with the Russian government, just as India did at the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the two countries established the Brahmos Aerospace Joint Venture.
As India continues to maintain friendly relations with its old partner Russia, the West is hesitant to punish India.
Some observers believe that India will downplay the India-Russia relationship as Russia becomes closer to China and even more dependent on China.
But unlike Western officials, Indian officials do not believe that tough sanctions will force Russia into China ’ s arms, because there is no shortage of friction between China and Russia over Central Asia and the Arctic.
In the eyes of Indian policymakers, India can become a "wedge" between Russia and China, helping Russia retain some autonomy in Sino-Russian relations, and avoiding Russia becoming a "small follower" of China.
On September 15, 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Samarkand State Guesthouse to exchange views on China-Russia relations and international and regional issues of common concern. (Xinhua)
Third, get on with it.
Much of the Indian military ’ s combat and strike equipment is dependent on Russia.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has limited and delayed India ’ s process of acquiring spare parts and equipment upgrades, thus creating a “supply shock ” to India ’ s main Russian-made weapons arsenal.
While India remains concerned about the performance of Russian-made weapons and Russia ’ s ability to provide spare parts, it has not taken any hard measures to curtail the use of Russian materials or to purchase substitutes to accelerate the diversification of military equipment imports.
All in all, India has no plans to achieve a rapid and comprehensive transformation of its Russian-made weapons systems by bringing in other foreign suppliers. After the border crises of 2019 and 2020, there has been some peace and stability in the border area, and Indian strategists believe that India should maintain a low level of operational readiness for the next few years, even if that means increased vulnerability.
In the short to medium term, India plans to keep up with its existing inventory, while at the same time sourcing from the secondary market for Russian components and relying more on domestic military equipment.
India will continue to work with Russia to meet outstanding delivery commitments and selectively sign contracts with the West to support the development of India ’ s indigenous defence industry.
In the long run, India wants to be largely self-sufficient in terms of defense needs and no longer rely on external suppliers.
While India aims to diversify its arsenal and become self-sufficient within the next 20 years, it still needs some key technical support from Russia.
Su-30 fighters will remain the backbone of the IAF for decades, but they cannot be maintained or upgraded without Russian technical support.
India ’ s most important defense export, the BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile, currently sold mainly to Southeast Asian countries to deter China, uses Russian propulsion technology.
As long as Russia is in control of key elements of India ’ s advanced weapons systems, especially fighter jets, cruise missiles and submarines, Russia has considerable influence over India.
Much of the Indian military ’ s combat and strike equipment is dependent on Russia.
Su-30 fighters will remain the backbone of the IAF for decades. (Getty)
The First Friend of India
In addition to the above material considerations, the common ideological orientation has also driven India and Russia to maintain friendly relations.
Both Indian and Russian officials support the “polycentric ” vision of a global order in which there is no single dominant hegemony and each major power maintains its own sphere of influence.
Both India and Russia believe that a “multicentre ” is more stable than an international order governed by one or two superpowers.
India ’ s political elite also maintains a “sense of closeness ” to Russia, which stems from India ’ s decades-long tradition of cooperation with the former Soviet Union.
Two months after the conflict broke out, Yoga Jyotsna, an Indian scholar, said that “Russia is India ’ s number one friend in the eyes of the military and people of insight. ”
According to Rajeswari Rajagopalan, another Indian scholar,
Strategic sympathy for Soviet Russia was widespread not only among Indian politicians, but also among the general Indian population.
This is because Russia ’ s historical support and assistance to India has been “romanticized. ”
Although Indian diplomatic agencies have not helped Russia in its defense, national security officials believe that multiple actors, including NATO, should be held responsible for the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and not all blame should be placed on the Russian side.
A September 2022 survey of more than 1,000 Indian adults found that Indians believe the West and Russia are equally responsible for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (Reuters)
The Indian public is also sympathetic to Russia. A July 2022 poll found that a majority of Indians refuse to describe Russia ’ s military actions in Ukraine as “wrong. ” A September 2022 survey of more than 1,000 Indian adults found that Indians believe that the West and Russia are equally responsible for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and most Indians do not believe that a Russian victory will make the world more dangerous.
Public attitudes in India are not only very different from those in Europe, Australia and Japan, but also in emerging countries such as Brazil and South Africa.
Read the second half of the article.
This article was first published in the South Asia Research Newsletter. It only represents the author 's opinion and does not represent Hong Kong' s position.

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

weapons supply
weapons joint production
security & military

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India and Russia have leveraged their partnership in multilateral organizations like BRICS and SCO to promote a multipolar world order, emphasizing the importance of equitable and representative global governance.

What formal frameworks do India and Russia cooperate within?

What vision of global dynamics do India and Russia share?

polycentric system of international relations

India's balancing act between Russia and China is evident in its efforts to sustain defense collaboration with Moscow while simultaneously deepening ties with the United States to address China's assertiveness in the region.

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India's strategic interest in countering China's assertiveness has led it to leverage its historical ties with Russia, including defense agreements such as the S-400 missile system, while deepening its partnerships with the US and other Indo-Pacific allies.

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

In what regions do India and Russia have common strategic interests?

What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India's approach to balancing its relationships with Russia and the United States reflects its commitment to strategic autonomy, as demonstrated by Modi's recent visit to Russia to address trade imbalances and discuss China's activities in the Indo-Pacific.

Title:

Content: Opinion

Treading a fine line

Ajit Doval’s high-stake visits to Russia and the US are reflective of India’s consistent efforts to balance ties with the rival superpowers; writes Vinay Kumar

X

India’s security and strategic interests on important global platforms have been in focus over the last month as National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval made hectic trips to the US and Russia.

Doval headed to the United States in late January and held a meeting with his US counterpart, Jake Sullivan. Earlier this month, he paid a visit to Russia where he joined top security officials from China, Iran and a number of Central Asian states to participate in a multilateral meeting on Afghanistan.

NSA’s recent visits to the world’s most important political capitals underlined the importance that India attaches to striking a delicate balance in its relations with both the countries at a time when global security and geopolitical environment appear uncertain. His visits to Washington DC and Moscow show India’s priorities in forging vital initiatives.

In Washington, the two NSAs agreed upon a number of important arrangements under the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) which was launched in 2022 and has the potential to have a transformative impact on India’s partnership with the US in areas like military, science & technology and key high-tech fields.

Considering the fact that Russia and the US have been at loggerheads, more so in the wake of the Ukraine War which has completed one year, Doval’s trip assumes significance. The icing on the cake was that the NSA also had one-on-one meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a rare instance of President Putin meeting a top-ranking official from India. His meeting with Doval also pointed towards the continued importance which both sides accord to each other in taking forward their engagement. At a time when Russia continues to face confrontation with the West over the war in Ukraine, Doval’s meeting with President Putin carries a special context. India, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has lent its voice to the peace-making efforts in Ukraine, stressing that today’s era is not an era of war. In his telephonic conversation with President Putin last September, PM Modi voiced his concern, stressing upon the need to take the path of diplomacy and dialogue, a stance often reiterated at various global forums at the highest level.

While India, having to put up with the Chinese threat, has warmed up to the US, it has also taken pains to maintain its relationship with Russia; though Moscow, facing increased isolation in the global community over the war in Ukraine, does not appear to be too pleased with the initiatives surrounding the Indo-Pacific, with the active involvement of the US and further deepening of strategic defence and technological ties between New Delhi and Washington. India has also stressed upon furthering its cooperation with Russia in sectors such as trade, energy and defence.

With the US, under the iCET initiative, India is poised to forge closer cooperation in the areas of Artificial Intelligence (AI), 6G, quantum technologies etc. Other focus areas include defence innovation, technology cooperation and semiconductor supply chains. Doval stressed upon the need to pin down the deliverables in these key focus areas to ensure that no slip-ups or laxity creeps in. Co-production and technology development have left much to be desired, though India is now billed as a major defence partner of the US

The NSA’s discussions in Washington DC and Moscow also point towards India’s keen desire to safeguard its key interests, make advances in high-tech areas and, at the same time, be ready to hold on to its independent position and avoid landing in confrontationist stance, so far as the two rival powers are concerned, as new dynamics is emerging rather rapidly in the geopolitical arena.

Views expressed are personal

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India's energy cooperation with Russia has significantly expanded under Modi, with Russia becoming a prominent oil supplier to India amidst Western sanctions following the Ukraine conflict.

Title:

Content: India is looking forward to engaging with Russia in energy sector: Hardeep Singh Puri

December 16, 2022 09:59 pm | Updated 09:59 pm IST - Bengaluru :

‘We used to buy very limited quantities of oil from Russia up to March 31, 2022, and now Russia has become a prominent supplier along with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait,” Mr. Puri said

Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri on Friday said India is looking forward to engaging with all countries, including Russia, in the energy sector.

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Mr. Puri said prior to March 31, 2022, India was buying oil in very limited quantities but now Russia has become a prominent supplier along with some middle-eastern countries.

“We used to buy very limited quantities of oil from Russia up to March 31, 2022, which was 0.2%, and now Russia has become a prominent supplier along with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait,” Mr. Puri said.

Mr. Puri, when asked for his views on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, said, ”I look forward to more comprehensive and intensified engagements with all countries in the sector of energy, including the Russian Federation.”

He added that India’s cooperation with Russia on energy is very widespread. “If I am not mistaken, the Russian investment in the Indian sector is about $13 billion and our companies have invested $16 billion in Russia,” he added.

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How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

How has Russia/ India trade evolved since the start of the war in Ukraine?

India's purchases of Russian oil increased

How has trade level between India and Russia changed under Modi and Putin?

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

This deepening energy partnership supports India's strategic autonomy by balancing its ties with Russia amidst Western pressure, while also countering China's influence in the region through enhanced connectivity projects.

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?