Willie Walsh is the chairman of the International Air Transport Association, a key organization in the aviation industry.

Asia, led by China, is expected to drive global growth in aircraft demand, with China accounting for 20% of the world's total aircraft deliveries and experiencing more than 6% growth in air passenger traffic.

Boeing forecasts the delivery of approximately 41,170 new aircraft over the next 20 years, indicating a slower growth rate due to global economic uncertainty and geopolitical disruptions.

The Asia and Pacific region is expected to lead the growth in global aviation demand, driven by companies from China and India.

"Aviation energy generation requirements are expected to increase by 5700% by 2070, reaching 44,000 TWh of energy per year, which is almost double the world's current electricity demand."

The predicted loss for the aviation sector in 2022 is 9.7 billion dollars.

The projected average annual growth rate of air passenger traffic is 4% from 2019 to 2040.

The forecast indicates that single-aisle jets will make up 70% of commercial aircraft deliveries.

The aviation sector is expected to return to profitability in 2023, driven by the demand for fuel-efficient aircraft and the industry's shift towards sustainability.

The North American region has the highest demand for new aircraft, with a forecasted demand of 9,160 in the next 20 years, according to Boeing's report.

The Asia Pacific region saw the highest increase in air travel demand, with a 126.1% year-on-year growth in international passenger traffic.

Airbus anticipates selling 39,000 aircraft globally by 2040, driven by the need to replace less fuel-efficient models, aligning with the industry's shift towards more sustainable options.

Asia and the Pacific are expected to lead the growth in air travel demand, with China's passenger share and Asia Pacific's passenger share predicted to increase significantly by 2040.

Willie Walsh is the chairman of the International Air Transport Association, a key organization in the aviation industry.

Title:

Content: Industry Forecast: Aviation industry will recover in 2023 Asia, Africa and Latin America airlines continue to lose money | Economy | DW | 05.06.2023
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Economic stratification
Industry forecast: Aviation industry will recover in 2023, Asia, Africa and Latin America airlines continue to lose money
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that airlines will return to profitability this year, with total flight attendances approaching 4.35 billion – almost catching up to 2019 ’ s record levels.
However, the global post-pandemic recovery remains fragile and there are downside risks.
The International Air Transport Association predicts that airlines in Asia, Latin America and Africa will continue to lose money in 2023.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecast on June 5, in view of the end of China's epidemic control measures, the airline industry's net profit in 2023 will reach $9.8 billion, double the previous estimate.
The association also said that the airline industry ’ s losses in 2022 were only half of the previously estimated $3.6 billion.
“The airline ’ s financial performance in 2023 exceeded expectations, ” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in a statement at the IATA ’ s annual general meeting in Istanbul.
He said several positive developments had contributed to increased profitability and that "China ended its COVID-19 restrictions earlier than expected this year."
Walsh said that although flight fuel prices remain high, they have eased in the first half of this year.
"On the cost side, there is some relief," he said.
Russia ’ s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to a spike in energy costs and a surge in inflation worldwide.
However, oil and gas prices have since declined.
In addition, Walsh said economic uncertainty has not dampened people ’ s desire to travel, even in the context of rising fuel costs leading to higher ticket prices.
Three difficult years in the aviation industry
In 2019, before the start of the global COVID-19 pandemic, airlines flew a record 4.54 billion passengers.
In 2020, countries closed their borders and imposed quarantine measures, and the aviation industry lost $137 billion in that year.
In 2021, the industry lost another $42 billion.
Things have improved in 2022, but the airline industry is still at a loss (about $1.8 billion), and during the year, China, a major aviation market, continued to implement COVID-19 restrictions until it was liberalized in December.
"The 1.2% net profit margin is also something to celebrate."
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on Monday that total aviation revenue is expected to grow to $803 billion this year, up nearly 10 percent from 2022.
While the industry as a whole will be profitable, Walsh noted that the net profit from each passenger is just $2.25 – which equates to a net profit margin of about 1.2%.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents about 300 airlines and accounts for 83 percent of global passenger traffic, said that the net profit of North American airlines will rise to 11.5 billion U.S. dollars this year, compared with 5.1 billion U.S. dollars for European airlines and 2 billion U.S. dollars for Middle Eastern airlines.
Meanwhile, airlines in Asia, Latin America and Africa will continue to lose money.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), airlines will face a total fuel bill of $215 billion, or $98.5 per barrel, this year.
This is down from the average cost of $135.6 per barrel in 2022.
Fuel will account for 28% of total airline costs this year, compared to 24% in 2019.
“Even a 1.2% net profit margin is something to celebrate after the deep losses from the COVID-19 pandemic, ” Walsh said.“ But given that airlines earn an average of $2.25 per passenger, repairing damaged balance sheets and providing investors with sustainable returns on capital, it will continue to be a challenge for many airlines, ” he added.
Several factors may affect profitability in the airline industry
The IATA said airline profitability was "fragile" and could be affected by several factors, including central bank rate hikes against inflation.
In addition, the risk of a recession remains, and if the recession leads to unemployment, the outlook for the industry may change negatively.
The association also said that while the war in Ukraine did not have a "significant impact" on the profitability of most airlines, an escalation of the conflict could harm global aviation. "Broader geopolitical tensions have already had an impact on international trade, and any escalation of such tensions represents a downside risk to the industry outlook."
Supply chain problems that have plagued global trade since the coronavirus outbreak also remain.
The IATA said: "Airlines have been directly affected by the disruption of the aircraft parts supply chain, and aircraft and engine manufacturers have yet to address the issue.
This is having a negative impact on the delivery of new aircraft and the airline's ability to maintain and deploy its existing fleet. "
(AFP)
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Asia, led by China, is expected to drive global growth in aircraft demand, with China accounting for 20% of the world's total aircraft deliveries and experiencing more than 6% growth in air passenger traffic.

Title:

Content: Cirium expects 45,000 more fuel-efficient aircraft to be delivered by 2040, worth $2.9 trillion
Cirium predicts that over the next 20 years, the world will spend $2.9 trillion on about 45,000 new aircraft.
• New aircraft expected to be delivered will replace the ageing fleet to meet projected annual growth of 3.7% in air passenger traffic
Single-aisle jets are expected to account for 70% of passenger aircraft deliveries by 2040
• China is expected to top the list with a 20% share in aircraft deliveries – the region ’ s air passenger growth is expected to exceed 6%
• Around 80% of existing passenger aircraft will be retired between 2021 and 2040
Over 3,500 freighter deliveries over the next 20 years – including new freighters and modified airliners
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An estimated 45,000 aircraft worth U.S. $2.9 trillion to be delivered by 2040.
Revealed in Cirium's new Fleet Forecast.
LONDON -- The newly released 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast shows that around 45,000 new, more fuel-efficient aircraft will be purchased globally over the next 20 years, with an estimated $2.9 trillion in aircraft purchases.
According to the Cirium Fleet Forecast released by Ascend by Cirium, a consulting firm of aviation analytics firm Cirium, global cumulative aircraft deliveries for the next 20 years will be 4% higher than predicted a year ago by 2040.
The report outlines the positive outlook for the aviation industry and its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected air travel, as well as aircraft deliveries.
Global aircraft deliveries fell by 43% - or 600 aircraft - in 2020.
Aircraft deliveries recovered somewhat in 2021, but are still 25% below 2019 levels.
Air travel is reopening as global vaccination programs become more widespread, leading to an increase of 300 aircraft deliveries in 2021 — a feat achieved when Boeing 787 was found to be problematic.
Rob Morris, Global Advisory Director, Ascend by Cirium, said: “The Cirium Fleet Forecast 2021 presents an optimistic long-term outlook for the aviation industry, which will return to a more traditional growth trajectory after 2024, although structurally different from before.
Air passenger traffic is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.7%, so the global passenger fleet will need to increase by almost 22,000 aircraft.
“If the above projections are realized, the global passenger fleet will reach the size of about 47,200 aircraft by the end of 2040. ”
The projected delivery of new aircraft will not only meet the growing demand for air transport, but will also replace older aircraft that are less fuel efficient. "
China leads in aircraft deliveries
The number of aircraft deliveries will vary depending on the region where the airline is located, and the Asian market is expected to be the growth engine.
China is expected to lead the world with more than 6% growth in air passenger traffic – also topping the list in aircraft deliveries, accounting for 20% of the world ’ s total.
China ’ s delivery figures are significantly ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries, which together account for 22% of the total.
North American carriers are expected to account for 20 percent, while European carriers will account for 17 percent.
The Middle East is estimated to account for 7% of the share, but because the region will deliver a large number of twin-aisle aircraft, it will account for 11% in terms of aircraft value.
Latin America, which is similar to the Middle East, will also account for 7%.
Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) accounted for 4%, and Africa accounted for 3%.
Most of the new deliveries will be single-aisle jets
The fleet forecast report shows that over the next 20 years, single-aisle jets will account for 70% of total aircraft deliveries and 55% of total delivery value.
The total value of newly delivered single-aisle jets is $1.6 trillion.
The mainstream model will still be the 150-seat aircraft, represented by the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max 8, which will account for 50% of deliveries.
Popular models with more than 180 seats include the A321 neo and the B737 Max 10, which will have an increasing share each year and will account for 40% of deliveries over the next 20 years.
Airbus and Boeing are expected to develop a new generation of single-aisle aircraft in the early to mid-2030s.
The $1.1 trillion dual-aisle aircraft market will be dominated by the B787 and A350 models, with 250-300-seat “medium ” aircraft accounting for about 65% of the total value delivered.
The large passenger aircraft market will be contested by the A350-1000 and the B777-9.
Aircraft deliveries in regional markets are expected to reach a scale of $150 billion.
About a third of them will be turboprop aircraft, based on 70-seat models.
Starting in 2030, a larger 90-seat model will enter the market.
Future new aircraft projects in the market include the MA700 from China and an expected new line of aircraft from Embraer.
Older models will be replaced by a new generation of aircraft.
It is predicted that about 80% of current passenger aircraft will be out of passenger service between 2021 and 2040.
As the airline industry begins to focus on driving down carbon emissions and focusing on sustainability, it will become increasingly important to replace these older, more fuel-efficient aircraft with new models.
Overall, in addition to several relatively new aircraft that are being phased out earlier, around 19,000 aircraft in the global passenger fleet will be phased out by the end of 2020.
According to analysis by Ascend by Cirium, the average economic life expectancy for single-aisle aircraft is 22 years and for twin-aisle aircraft is 20 years.
The number of freighters is growing: including new freighters and refitted freighters
As the global freight industry continues to perform strongly, freighter capacity (based on available tonnage kilometres) is expected to grow by 3.3% over 2019, with a projected supply of around 3,500 freighters over the next 20 years.
Of this total, it is expected that 30 per cent will be new freighters and 70 per cent will be converted from passenger aircraft.
About 1,050 new freighters are expected to be shipped, valued at $121 billion.
More online shopping during the epidemic period has promoted the development of e-commerce, and the growth of e-commerce has promoted the conversion of airliners to freighters.
Modification projects are focused on newer models such as the A321, B737-800, A330 and B777-300ER.
The Cirium Fleet Forecast is an independent outlook report on the global commercial passenger and cargo aircraft market, based on the industry ’ s premier combination of data and years of expertise.
Click here to download the executive summary of the Cirium Fleet Forecast 2021.
About Cirium
Cirium is a company that combines powerful data and analytics services to drive the world ’ s continued growth. With decades of industry experience, Cirium provides clients with expert insights to help companies, aircraft manufacturers, airports, airlines and financial institutions make informed business decisions that shape the future of the travel industry, improve business returns and improve customer experience. RELX PLC is the world ’ s leading provider of information and data analytics to professional and commercial customers across a wide range of industries.
Shares of parent company RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
Visit cirium.com for more information or follow Cirium ’ s LinkedIn account and WeChat account, CiriumCN.
Disclaimer: The original version of this announcement is the official authorized version. The translation is for convenience only. Please refer to the original version, the original version is the only version with legal effect.
Contacts
For media inquiries, please contact:
Cirium Media Team
Rachel Humphries / June Lee
media @ Cirium.com
The PC Agency
Paul Charles / Michael Johnson / Callum McGoldrick
Cirium @ pc.agency
Contacts
For media inquiries, please contact:
Cirium Media Team
Rachel Humphries / June Lee
media @ Cirium.com
The PC Agency
Paul Charles / Michael Johnson / Callum McGoldrick
Cirium @ pc.agency

Boeing forecasts the delivery of approximately 41,170 new aircraft over the next 20 years, indicating a slower growth rate due to global economic uncertainty and geopolitical disruptions.

Title:

Content: Boeing cuts its forecast for commercial aircraft demand
Despite widespread concerns, demand for cargo planes remains strong
Ayman Azzam
8: 47 PM, Sunday, 17 Jul 22
Boeing has cut its forecast for commercial aircraft demand for the coming decades as deliveries are weighed down by the prospect of slowing global economic growth and uncertainty about Russia.
In its latest long-term market estimate, Boeing expects manufacturers to deliver about 41,170 new aircraft to customers through 2041.
This is a slower pace than forecast a year ago, when the company estimated 43,610 deliveries over a 20-year period to 2040 (a 5.5% decline).
Boeing also cut its forecast for annual passenger traffic growth over the next 20 years from 4% to 3.8%.
The discounted outlook sheds light on how geopolitical and economic disruptions are permanently affecting the commercial aviation industry.
Boeing ’ s rival Airbus similarly lowered its forecast for travel demand for the next two decades, citing rising energy costs as a key factor behind the decline.
Reduced demand for new aircraft
Darren Holst, Boeing ’ s vice president of commercial marketing, said his company also expects lower global economic growth until 2041 than last year ’ s forecast, which also translates into lower demand for new aircraft.
The latest forecast by the U.S. planemaker rules out any possible future deliveries to buyers from Russia, which has already been excluded from the global aviation market due to sweeping sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries following its invasion of Ukraine.
Boeing predicted last year that Russian customers would make up about 1,500 aircraft sales over the next two decades.
Holst told reporters before issuing the forecast: “Russia is not a viable market for us. ”
Demand for commercial aircraft
Despite widespread concerns, demand for cargo aircraft remains strong, with the global fleet expected to grow to 3,610 aircraft in 2041, from 2010 aircraft in 2019.
Sales of new aircraft are expected to be strong over the next decade, as airlines strengthen their fleets to meet the burgeoning demand for air travel after the coronavirus pandemic.
Based on this estimate, Boeing estimates that airlines will need 19,575 new aircraft by 2031, compared to 19,330 by 2030 as projected last year.
Holst said: “There is a huge amount of airport runways waiting for the travel industry to return to normal levels. ”

The Asia and Pacific region is expected to lead the growth in global aviation demand, driven by companies from China and India.

Title:

Content: The leaders of demand growth are expected to be Asian companies, mainly Chinese and Indian.
The total demand for aircraft in 2023-2042 will be 40,85 thousand units, including 32,630 thousand for narrow-body liners, 8,220 thousand for wide-body liners, Airbus predicts.
It is expected that in the next 20 years, the world ’ s airlines will replace about 17,17 thousand old aircraft with new, more energy-efficient liners.
In the future, the demand for aircraft will increasingly be determined by the need to replace the old generation, given that the aviation sector sets itself sustainable development goals, according to the Global Market Forecast 2023 review.
Demand for cargo aircraft in 2023-2042 is expected to reach 2,510 thousand units.
According to the forecast of Airbus, by 2042, the global fleet of aircraft will be 46,560 thousand, including 3,23 thousand cargo ships.
The average growth rate of passenger traffic in the world 2019-2042 will be 3.6%, freight - 3.2%, Airbus expects.
Last year, the aerospace corporation predicted total demand for aircraft in the next 20 years at 39,490 units.

"Aviation energy generation requirements are expected to increase by 5700% by 2070, reaching 44,000 TWh of energy per year, which is almost double the world's current electricity demand."

Title:

Content: Powering the sustainable aviation revolution

Atkins aerospace experts predict 44,000TWh of energy will be needed annually by 2070 to produce new, sustainable aviation fuell

A recent report released by sustainable aviation experts at Atkins, a member of the SNC-Lavalin Group, has cautioned that meeting the net zero targets set for 2050 in the aviation industry will necessitate significant changes in sustainable energy and fuel production infrastructure, particularly if commercial air transport continues to expand as expected.

The white paper, titled "Alternative Fuels for Sustainable Aviation," highlights that reducing carbon emissions in the aviation sector is not solely dependent on aircraft emissions. The report recommends the use of a mixture of alternative fuel options such as SAF, eFuel, Hydrogen, and batteries to achieve the most effective solution.

However, it also warns that the industry must be ready for the significant implications of utilising these alternative fuels and batteries to achieve the most effective solution. However, it also warns that the industry must be ready for the significant implications of using these alternative fuels and emphasises the significant impact on future energy demand that will be required to produce them.

Will we be generating enough aircraft fuel?

Based on estimated energy efficiencies and the predicted fuel mix, Atkins predicts that generating the necessary global aircraft fuel demand will require 44,000 TWh of energy per year by 2070. This represents a 5700% increase from current aviation energy generation requirements and is almost double the world’s current electricity demand.

It's not just energy generation that is now a concern, other considerations, such as fuel transportation and storage requirements, will also have to be taken into account.

Andrew Caughey, Sustainable Aviation Lead – Aerospace, Atkins says: “Aviation emissions are hard to abate, but not impossible. The sector is making huge strides in its efforts to accelerate the development of new fuels and aircraft that will help deliver zero emission flight. These advances have a wider impact beyond the aerospace industry. Whilst the future mix of low carbon alternative fuel is yet to be determined, the production, storage and transportation of fuels has implications for energy and airport infrastructure and their emissions need to be considered across the whole lifecycle, from ‘source to force’.

“Regions, governments, airports and the wider industry must adopt a holistic approach to scenario modelling when creating masterplans for the infrastructure and ecosystems that will drive the future of sustainable aviation. By understanding the full fuel mix and energy demands for sustainable aviation, governments can use the insight to inform their policy makers and actions – whether that be introducing emissions KPIs, green fuel subsidies, demand management or investing in innovation and development. Integrated system-level planning is vitally important in achieving the transition and must take into account future energy predictions.”

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The predicted loss for the aviation sector in 2022 is 9.7 billion dollars.

Title:

Content: Europe ’ s airports are in chaos: what is the current state of the aviation industry?
| Economic Horizontal | DW | 22.06.2022
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Economic stratification
Europe ’ s airports are in chaos: what is the state of the aviation industry?
The summer vacation period has begun.
However, the journey of how many people to the land of their dreams begins at the chaotic airport, from hours of queues, flight delays to temporary cancellations, frustration and trouble.
As this year ’ s International Air Show (ILA) in Berlin approaches, let ’ s take a look at the current state of the aviation industry.
Traveling in May and the first few weeks of June is enough to give an accurate sense of what the summer might be like at European airports.
In the coming weeks, passengers will need to carry one of the most necessary “baggage ”: patience.
At German airports, queues at check-in counters are getting longer and longer.
The main reason for this is that there is an acute shortage of staff in the airport services: both security personnel and baggage handlers on the tarmac.
Just recently, easyjet, a low-cost airline, announced that it would cancel thousands of flights in the coming weeks due to a lack of staff.
During the height of the pandemic, many service providers laid off staff.
The client then tends to try to find a better-paid job.
Ralph Beisel, chief executive of the German Airports Association (ADV), explained that if people want to return to work, they first have to go through a lengthy security review.
At present, the airport is short of about one-fifth of its staff.
He therefore called for the review process to be expedited so that people could be hired more quickly: “The security review cannot take eight weeks, because then the summer vacation can be over ”.
We're short of manpower.
It's not just the lack of staff on the ground.
There are also "bottlenecks" in the air.
Lufthansa, for example, will have to cancel hundreds of flights in July because of a shortage of staff.
The union feels its position has been confirmed.
"It has long been clear that radical layoffs in many sectors of the airline industry will have a negative impact on recovery," said Stefan Herth, president of Cockpit.
Finding enough pilots quickly, however, is no easy task -- globally. Heinrich Großbongardt, an aviation expert in Hamburg, points out that in the United States, regional traffic pilots are now employed on even better terms than previously thought to be the best.
As a result, labour rights are on the increase.
Lufthansa may even face a pilot strike because management intends to reduce the number of its parent company ’ s airliners and move them to a cheaper subsidiary, Eurowings, to help achieve the cost-cutting that must be done.
Lufthansa, which was battered during the pandemic, is now trying to reposition itself and hopes to offer services to passengers quickly again.
But it's difficult.
Last month, Lufthansa chairman Carsten Spohr admitted: "I have had to apologise repeatedly to our customers for weeks; I am afraid I will have to do so after the summer."
Long range, expensive fuel.
Then, there are other problems: fuel prices have skyrocketed due to the war in Ukraine; aircraft flying to the Far East have had to make a detour due to the closure of Russian airspace, which has led to a sharp increase in flight costs.
Aviation expert Gros Bangat warned that high costs could leave some airlines in trouble and lead to bankruptcies — for example, small state-owned airlines that are largely state-funded but can ’ t be truly profitable.
They are also unlikely to be sheltered by connected aviation tycoons such as Lufthansa, British Airways or Air France / KLM.
On the contrary, Lufthansa is intent on swallowing smaller airlines such as ITA Airways, the successor to Alitalia.
Grosspungart suspects that Swedish airline SAS may soon be one of the targets of the acquisition.
Berlin Mayor Franziska Giffey and Brandenburg Governor Dietmar Woidke at the Berlin International Aerospace Biennale 2022
Against this backdrop, the International Air and Space Biennale (ILA) opened on Wednesday at Berlin-Schönefeld Airport.
Due to the pandemic, the 2020 session was not held.
Due to the war in Ukraine, military aviation may be more of a concern than before.
Environmental protection will also be a major issue.
There are still huge losses this year.
This has actually given momentum to aircraft manufacturers, first Airbus and Boeing.
After all, using more fuel-efficient aircraft helps airlines meet their emissions targets.
Airbus, for example, expects that 39,000 aircraft will be needed globally by 2040 to replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.
Boeing estimates that annual air traffic in Europe alone will grow by 3.1% by 2040.
However, aviation expert Carlos Bongat said the forecast was too optimistic.
He believes that given the large number of problems that still exist, especially due to rising costs and rising ticket prices, it is difficult to achieve the relevant forecasts.
After two consecutive years of losses from the pandemic, the airline industry has some reason for optimism.
Willie Walsh, director-general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said at the Doha conference on Monday that it is fully on track to turn a profit in 2023.
However, for this year, the airline industry still expects a loss of 9.7 billion dollars.
Not a small number, of course, but much less than the two pandemic plague years of 2020 and 2021: the total losses for those two years were $138 billion and $42 billion, respectively.
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The projected average annual growth rate of air passenger traffic is 4% from 2019 to 2040.

Title:

Content: China surging news reported on the 15th, the United States Boeing released the 2021 version of the "Civil Aviation Market Forecast" report on the 14th, noting that basically, the global market is recovering according to the company's 2020 expectations.
The recovery in domestic air travel demand is leading the trend, with the interregional market expected to recover with the relaxation of hygiene and travel restrictions, and eventually remote international travel will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023-2024.
In the next 20 years, the demand for new aircraft will reach 43,610, the highest in the North American market is 9,160, and the demand in China is 8,700.
The report pointed out that the economic recovery has laid the foundation for a rebound in air passenger traffic, and the future prospects for air passenger traffic will remain stable.
Looking forward to 2025, GDP will increase by more than 15% compared to 2019, and GDP per capita will increase by about 10%.
The 21-year average passenger flow growth from 2019 to 2040 is expected to be 4%, in line with last year ’ s forecast, indicating that the basic global demand for air transport has not changed.
The report predicts that due to cyclical and structural market dynamics, the future air cargo market demand is strong, and full cargo aircraft is a significant growth area, including original cargo aircraft and modified cargo aircraft are forecast to increase from the previous year.
Thanks to the growth of e-commerce and the speed and reliability of air cargo, the world cargo fleet will increase from about 2,000 in 2019 to about 3,400, and the sustainable demand for air cargo will increase the global cargo fleet by more than 70% compared to the pre-pandemic size by 2040.
Notably, the report predicts that the world will need 19,000 civilian aircraft worth $3.2 trillion in the next 10 years, and demand for more than 43,500 new aircraft worth $7.2 trillion in the 20-year period to 2040, an increase of about 500 over the previous year ’ s forecast.
Among them, as of 2040, the demand for regional jets is 2,390, single-aisle aircraft 32,660, wide-body aircraft 7670, wide-body cargo aircraft 890, and aircraft demand totals 43,610.
The North American market has the highest demand, at 9,160, and the Chinese demand is 8,700.
This demand will lead to a 3.1% annual growth in the global active fleet, with the global civil aviation fleet set to surpass 49,000 by 2040, China, Europe, North America and Asia Pacific each accounting for 20% of new aircraft deliveries, with the remaining 20% going to emerging markets.
Traffic disruptions have a significant impact on aircraft deliveries and active fleets due to the pandemic. The report anticipates that the civil aviation industry will need more than 7,500 new wide-body aircraft by 2040 to meet fleet renewal and long-term growth in demand in the remote passenger and cargo market.
These demand increased slightly from the previous year, but decreased by 8% from 2019.
At present, single-aisle aircraft account for nearly 64% of the global passenger fleet, and single-aisle aircraft account for the largest proportion of new aircraft deliveries, roughly in line with pre-pandemic forecasts, accounting for 75%, and demand for more than 32,500 aircraft over the next 20 years.
The report notes that global demand for new single-aisle aircraft is driven by the size and flexibility of single-aisle aircraft.
In the future, these new single-aisle aircraft will continue to promote the development of low-cost airlines and provide the needed alternatives for older, less efficient aircraft.
The three regional markets for the new single-aisle aircraft are Asia Pacific, Europe and North America, which account for more than 80% of global low-cost airline capacity in 2019 and throughout the forecast period.
In addition, the report predicts long-term growth in the short-haul market, especially in emerging markets, and predicts that intra-regional short-haul travel accounts for more than half of the industry ’ s total growth demand, with inbound travel alone accounting for 17% of the industry ’ s new capacity.
Historically, excursions have been spurred by improved services, such as new direct routes and lower fares through low-cost airlines.
The report predicts that the share of Asian airlines in the global market will continue to increase, with China ’ s passenger share expected to grow from 15% in 19 years to 20% in 2040, and Asia Pacific ’ s passenger share expected to grow from 18% in 19 years to 21%.
# Growth # Planes # Forecasts # Future # Markets

The forecast indicates that single-aisle jets will make up 70% of commercial aircraft deliveries.

The aviation sector is expected to return to profitability in 2023, driven by the demand for fuel-efficient aircraft and the industry's shift towards sustainability.

The North American region has the highest demand for new aircraft, with a forecasted demand of 9,160 in the next 20 years, according to Boeing's report.

The Asia Pacific region saw the highest increase in air travel demand, with a 126.1% year-on-year growth in international passenger traffic.

Title:

Content: 【 Printing 】
Global aviation industry maintains strong recovery
Related LINKS http: / / www.CRNT.com 2024-02-21 17: 28: 20
BEIJING, Feb. 21 / According to the People ’ s Daily, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently released a report saying that the total volume of passenger traffic in the global aviation industry in December 2023 increased by 25.3% year-on-year, reaching 97.5% of the December 2019 level.
Among them, international passenger traffic increased by 41.6% year-on-year, close to 90% of the pre-COVID-19 level; domestic passenger traffic increased by 30.4% year-on-year, which has exceeded the pre-epidemic level.
According to the report of the International Air Transport Association, with the gradual recovery of air capacity, global airline operating income is expected to reach US $896 billion in 2023, an increase of 21.7% year-on-year, 107% of the pre-epidemic income level, and net profit of US $23.3 billion.
At the market level, the markets in Asia Pacific, North America and Europe performed well.
As a result of the rapid recovery in domestic markets such as China, the international passenger traffic of airlines in the Asia Pacific region increased by 126.1% year-on-year, becoming an important driving force for the growth of the global air passenger business.
In terms of cargo tonnage kilometers, global air cargo demand in 2023 was 3.6% lower than in 2019. Since the second half of 2023, global air cargo demand has been picking up steadily, with the fourth quarter showing a particularly strong performance.
In addition, according to the "Global Air Transport Industry Outlook Report" released by the International Air Transport Association, with the further opening of the global aviation market and the introduction of favorable policies in various countries, the number of passengers in 2024 is expected to exceed 4.7 billion, a new high since 2019, and the industry revenue will reach $964 billion, an increase of 7.6%.
The annual passenger growth rate is expected to be 4.2% between 2023 and 2040, and the number of passengers is expected to reach 7.8 billion in 2040.
According to Willie Walsh, president of the International Air Transport Association, it is heartening that the global aviation industry has maintained a strong recovery in the post-pandemic era. With people's willingness to go out for business, study and travel in the future, the development momentum of the global aviation industry is expected to further strengthen.
At the same time, governments need to continue to adopt new strategic measures to promote the comprehensive recovery of the aviation industry from the aspects of infrastructure construction, energy conservation and emission reduction.
Rei Zheng, president of the International Aviation Research Institute and director of the aviation department of Swinburne University of Technology in Australia, said in an interview that the rapid recovery of the global aviation industry in 2023 reflects the resilience and adaptability of the industry, but the overall vitality of the forward industry still needs to be improved.
According to their own characteristics, airlines of various countries should find the market positioning, expand the development space, especially small and medium-sized airlines need to further cultivate competitive market segments.
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Asia and the Pacific are expected to lead the growth in air travel demand, with China's passenger share and Asia Pacific's passenger share predicted to increase significantly by 2040.