China is expected to lead global growth in aircraft demand.

According to Boeing's projections, 41,170 new aircraft are expected to be in demand over the next 20 years, driven by replacement needs and the dominance of single-aisle aircraft.

China is leading the growth in global aviation demand.

"Aviation energy generation requirements are expected to increase by 5700% by 2070, reaching 44,000 TWh of energy per year, which is almost double the world's current electricity demand."

The predicted losses for the aviation sector in 2022 are $9.7 billion, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Emirates has partnered with GE Digital to reduce fuel costs and carbon emissions, enhancing the sustainability of its fleet and operations.

The projected average annual growth rate of air passenger traffic is approximately 3% per annum.

The percentage of commercial aircraft deliveries that will be single-aisle jets is expected to be 70% by 2040.

The air travel demand in Asia and Pacific increased by 22.6% year-on-year.

The aviation sector is expected to return to profitability by 2023, although at lower levels than before the pandemic, according to participants.

The North American market is forecasted to have the highest demand for new aircraft, with a demand of 9,160.

North American airlines are driving the recovery in air travel demand.

Boeing anticipates selling 43,000 aircraft over the next 20 years to meet growing travel demands and reduce carbon emissions.

The Asia Pacific region saw the highest increase in air travel demand, with a 126.1% year-on-year increase in international passenger traffic.

Airbus anticipates selling 39,000 aircraft over the next 20 years to meet growing travel demands and reduce carbon emissions.

The Asia-Pacific region is expected to have the strongest growth in air travel demand.

Asia Pacific is expected to lead the growth in air travel demand, with a projected annual growth rate of 4.5% over the next 20 years.

China is expected to lead global growth in aircraft demand.

Title:

Content: Cirium expects 45,000 more fuel-efficient aircraft to be delivered by 2040, worth $2.9 trillion
Cirium predicts that over the next 20 years, the world will spend $2.9 trillion on about 45,000 new aircraft.
• New aircraft expected to be delivered will replace the ageing fleet to meet projected annual growth of 3.7% in air passenger traffic
Single-aisle jets are expected to account for 70% of passenger aircraft deliveries by 2040
• China is expected to top the list with a 20% share in aircraft deliveries – the region ’ s air passenger growth is expected to exceed 6%
• Around 80% of existing passenger aircraft will be retired between 2021 and 2040
Over 3,500 freighter deliveries over the next 20 years – including new freighters and modified airliners
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An estimated 45,000 aircraft worth U.S. $2.9 trillion to be delivered by 2040.
Revealed in Cirium's new Fleet Forecast.
LONDON -- The newly released 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast shows that around 45,000 new, more fuel-efficient aircraft will be purchased globally over the next 20 years, with an estimated $2.9 trillion in aircraft purchases.
According to the Cirium Fleet Forecast released by Ascend by Cirium, a consulting firm of aviation analytics firm Cirium, global cumulative aircraft deliveries for the next 20 years will be 4% higher than predicted a year ago by 2040.
The report outlines the positive outlook for the aviation industry and its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected air travel, as well as aircraft deliveries.
Global aircraft deliveries fell by 43% - or 600 aircraft - in 2020.
Aircraft deliveries recovered somewhat in 2021, but are still 25% below 2019 levels.
Air travel is reopening as global vaccination programs become more widespread, leading to an increase of 300 aircraft deliveries in 2021 — a feat achieved when Boeing 787 was found to be problematic.
Rob Morris, Global Advisory Director, Ascend by Cirium, said: “The Cirium Fleet Forecast 2021 presents an optimistic long-term outlook for the aviation industry, which will return to a more traditional growth trajectory after 2024, although structurally different from before.
Air passenger traffic is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.7%, so the global passenger fleet will need to increase by almost 22,000 aircraft.
“If the above projections are realized, the global passenger fleet will reach the size of about 47,200 aircraft by the end of 2040. ”
The projected delivery of new aircraft will not only meet the growing demand for air transport, but will also replace older aircraft that are less fuel efficient. "
China leads in aircraft deliveries
The number of aircraft deliveries will vary depending on the region where the airline is located, and the Asian market is expected to be the growth engine.
China is expected to lead the world with more than 6% growth in air passenger traffic – also topping the list in aircraft deliveries, accounting for 20% of the world ’ s total.
China ’ s delivery figures are significantly ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries, which together account for 22% of the total.
North American carriers are expected to account for 20 percent, while European carriers will account for 17 percent.
The Middle East is estimated to account for 7% of the share, but because the region will deliver a large number of twin-aisle aircraft, it will account for 11% in terms of aircraft value.
Latin America, which is similar to the Middle East, will also account for 7%.
Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) accounted for 4%, and Africa accounted for 3%.
Most of the new deliveries will be single-aisle jets
The fleet forecast report shows that over the next 20 years, single-aisle jets will account for 70% of total aircraft deliveries and 55% of total delivery value.
The total value of newly delivered single-aisle jets is $1.6 trillion.
The mainstream model will still be the 150-seat aircraft, represented by the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max 8, which will account for 50% of deliveries.
Popular models with more than 180 seats include the A321 neo and the B737 Max 10, which will have an increasing share each year and will account for 40% of deliveries over the next 20 years.
Airbus and Boeing are expected to develop a new generation of single-aisle aircraft in the early to mid-2030s.
The $1.1 trillion dual-aisle aircraft market will be dominated by the B787 and A350 models, with 250-300-seat “medium ” aircraft accounting for about 65% of the total value delivered.
The large passenger aircraft market will be contested by the A350-1000 and the B777-9.
Aircraft deliveries in regional markets are expected to reach a scale of $150 billion.
About a third of them will be turboprop aircraft, based on 70-seat models.
Starting in 2030, a larger 90-seat model will enter the market.
Future new aircraft projects in the market include the MA700 from China and an expected new line of aircraft from Embraer.
Older models will be replaced by a new generation of aircraft.
It is predicted that about 80% of current passenger aircraft will be out of passenger service between 2021 and 2040.
As the airline industry begins to focus on driving down carbon emissions and focusing on sustainability, it will become increasingly important to replace these older, more fuel-efficient aircraft with new models.
Overall, in addition to several relatively new aircraft that are being phased out earlier, around 19,000 aircraft in the global passenger fleet will be phased out by the end of 2020.
According to analysis by Ascend by Cirium, the average economic life expectancy for single-aisle aircraft is 22 years and for twin-aisle aircraft is 20 years.
The number of freighters is growing: including new freighters and refitted freighters
As the global freight industry continues to perform strongly, freighter capacity (based on available tonnage kilometres) is expected to grow by 3.3% over 2019, with a projected supply of around 3,500 freighters over the next 20 years.
Of this total, it is expected that 30 per cent will be new freighters and 70 per cent will be converted from passenger aircraft.
About 1,050 new freighters are expected to be shipped, valued at $121 billion.
More online shopping during the epidemic period has promoted the development of e-commerce, and the growth of e-commerce has promoted the conversion of airliners to freighters.
Modification projects are focused on newer models such as the A321, B737-800, A330 and B777-300ER.
The Cirium Fleet Forecast is an independent outlook report on the global commercial passenger and cargo aircraft market, based on the industry ’ s premier combination of data and years of expertise.
Click here to download the executive summary of the Cirium Fleet Forecast 2021.
About Cirium
Cirium is a company that combines powerful data and analytics services to drive the world ’ s continued growth. With decades of industry experience, Cirium provides clients with expert insights to help companies, aircraft manufacturers, airports, airlines and financial institutions make informed business decisions that shape the future of the travel industry, improve business returns and improve customer experience. RELX PLC is the world ’ s leading provider of information and data analytics to professional and commercial customers across a wide range of industries.
Shares of parent company RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
Visit cirium.com for more information or follow Cirium ’ s LinkedIn account and WeChat account, CiriumCN.
Disclaimer: The original version of this announcement is the official authorized version. The translation is for convenience only. Please refer to the original version, the original version is the only version with legal effect.
Contacts
For media inquiries, please contact:
Cirium Media Team
Rachel Humphries / June Lee
media @ Cirium.com
The PC Agency
Paul Charles / Michael Johnson / Callum McGoldrick
Cirium @ pc.agency
Contacts
For media inquiries, please contact:
Cirium Media Team
Rachel Humphries / June Lee
media @ Cirium.com
The PC Agency
Paul Charles / Michael Johnson / Callum McGoldrick
Cirium @ pc.agency

According to Boeing's projections, 41,170 new aircraft are expected to be in demand over the next 20 years, driven by replacement needs and the dominance of single-aisle aircraft.

Title:

Content: Boeing cuts 20-year industrywide outlook for planes

3 minute read

Signage for Boeing is seen on a trade pavilion at Farnborough International Airshow in Farnborough, Britain, July 17, 2018. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo

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LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - U.S. airplane maker Boeing Co trimmed its projected industrywide demand for airplanes over the next 20 years, but said it expects deliveries to be stable excluding the Russian market.

Boeing projects airlines worldwide will need 41,170 new airplanes over 20 years with half of the deliveries for replacement aircraft, and with single-aisle aircraft accounting for about 75% of planes.

Boeing's new market outlook, released on Sunday ahead of the Farnborough Airshow, is down from its previous rolling 20-year-forecast of 43,610 deliveries.

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The new estimate excludes the Russian market and its projection of 1,540 airplanes, because of the war in Ukraine and uncertainty about when manufacturers could again sell planes to Russian carriers.

Boeing slightly boosted its forecast for demand over the next 10 years to 19,575 airplane deliveries -- a higher projection even excluding the Russian market.

"That's a function of a depressed environment in 2021 falling off and a new trend year in 2031 being added," Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president for commercial marketing, told reporters in a briefing ahead of the Sunday release. "It comes very close to our 2019" outlook if Russia was included.

Boeing also dropped its industrywide passenger traffic forecast growth rate slightly to 3.8% from 4%, but boosted its cargo growth forecast to 4.1% from 4% last year. It cut its fleet growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.1%. Its forecast for widebody deliveries over 20 years fell from 7,670 to 7,230.

Boeing still projects the global airline fleet by 2041 will nearly double as it still sees a worldwide aviation demand COVID-19 recovery by early 2024.

Over the next 20 years Boeing said "long-term fundamentals remain intact."

"Our view of medium-term recovery -- when the industry gets back to 2019 levels of global airline traffic -- is largely unchanged" since 2020, Hulst said. "Overall, we still see late 2023, early 2024 as the time where the industry recovers to full or at least the level of pre-pandemic traffic."

Boeing sees strong near-term demand for aircraft despite recession risks.

"The global industry is still on a recovery trajectory back to where the normal relationship of GDP and traffic would be," Hulst said. "Any small blip from an economy standpoint would be probably overwhelmed by the demand that exists as a result of those normal economic relationships."

Boeing also projects the freighter fleet will grow 80% by 2041. Air cargo is performing at "historic levels," Hulst said, saying it is in part "a function of the increasing strategic value of air cargo relative to supply chains that are challenged and shipping that is challenged."

Boeing sees e-commerce networks as helping to drive a "strategic shift to air cargo even into the medium- and long-term. ... This isn't just a blip in terms of shipping versus air."

Hulst said the number of routes with more than one airline operating has more than doubled over the last two decades -- representing 70% of all capacity. It demonstrates "the continuous innovation that airlines need to have to continue to compete at lower costs to attract more and more traffic."

Air cargo still only accounts for 1% of global trade. "A small shift in terms of mode of transportation, of key elements of trade, makes a big impact in terms of demand for air cargo," Hulst said.

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Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Leslie Adler

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

China is leading the growth in global aviation demand.

"Aviation energy generation requirements are expected to increase by 5700% by 2070, reaching 44,000 TWh of energy per year, which is almost double the world's current electricity demand."

Title:

Content: Powering the sustainable aviation revolution

Atkins aerospace experts predict 44,000TWh of energy will be needed annually by 2070 to produce new, sustainable aviation fuell

A recent report released by sustainable aviation experts at Atkins, a member of the SNC-Lavalin Group, has cautioned that meeting the net zero targets set for 2050 in the aviation industry will necessitate significant changes in sustainable energy and fuel production infrastructure, particularly if commercial air transport continues to expand as expected.

The white paper, titled "Alternative Fuels for Sustainable Aviation," highlights that reducing carbon emissions in the aviation sector is not solely dependent on aircraft emissions. The report recommends the use of a mixture of alternative fuel options such as SAF, eFuel, Hydrogen, and batteries to achieve the most effective solution.

However, it also warns that the industry must be ready for the significant implications of utilising these alternative fuels and batteries to achieve the most effective solution. However, it also warns that the industry must be ready for the significant implications of using these alternative fuels and emphasises the significant impact on future energy demand that will be required to produce them.

Will we be generating enough aircraft fuel?

Based on estimated energy efficiencies and the predicted fuel mix, Atkins predicts that generating the necessary global aircraft fuel demand will require 44,000 TWh of energy per year by 2070. This represents a 5700% increase from current aviation energy generation requirements and is almost double the world’s current electricity demand.

It's not just energy generation that is now a concern, other considerations, such as fuel transportation and storage requirements, will also have to be taken into account.

Andrew Caughey, Sustainable Aviation Lead – Aerospace, Atkins says: “Aviation emissions are hard to abate, but not impossible. The sector is making huge strides in its efforts to accelerate the development of new fuels and aircraft that will help deliver zero emission flight. These advances have a wider impact beyond the aerospace industry. Whilst the future mix of low carbon alternative fuel is yet to be determined, the production, storage and transportation of fuels has implications for energy and airport infrastructure and their emissions need to be considered across the whole lifecycle, from ‘source to force’.

“Regions, governments, airports and the wider industry must adopt a holistic approach to scenario modelling when creating masterplans for the infrastructure and ecosystems that will drive the future of sustainable aviation. By understanding the full fuel mix and energy demands for sustainable aviation, governments can use the insight to inform their policy makers and actions – whether that be introducing emissions KPIs, green fuel subsidies, demand management or investing in innovation and development. Integrated system-level planning is vitally important in achieving the transition and must take into account future energy predictions.”

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The predicted losses for the aviation sector in 2022 are $9.7 billion, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Title:

Content: Egypt News
IATA: $9.7 billion in airline losses
The financial seminar will be back next month.
Mohamed Ismail - Cairo - Books - Mohamed Ebeid:
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced that Doha will host the World Financial Symposium 2022, which will take place from 19 to 22 September.
The seminar will discuss ESG reporting and sustainable financial trends, achieving climate neutrality by 2050, financial risk management, the path to aviation segmentation and customer focus, meeting and settling obligations in a world of airline supply and demand, the future of airline payments and payments as a value generator, understanding and preparing for the second generation of OECD base erosion and profit transfer measures.
Industry losses are expected to decline to $9.7 billion this year, from about $180 billion in 2020-21, and rising demand, coupled with the removal of travel restrictions in most regions, supports expectations that air traffic will recover to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2024, with profit potential next year. The sector ’ s financial circles face many challenges as the sector strives to meet its pledges to reach climate neutrality by 2050.
IATA Managing Director Willie Walsh said: “Airlines are resilient and this is the ideal time for companies to take advantage of the significant efforts and difficult restructuring measures they have gone through over the past two years to seize opportunities as they move beyond the crisis.
Akbar Al Baker, Chief Executive Officer of Qatar Airways Group, said: “We are honoured to host the first live edition of the Global Finance Symposium since 2019 as we celebrate our 25th anniversary. The ground-breaking event brings together leading financial leaders from airlines and our partners across the supply chain to discuss the next phase and the challenges to be overcome.
The Global Finance Symposium will host Mary Owens Thompson, Chief Economist at IATA, to talk about the sector ’ s resilience and economic prospects.
You may also read.

Emirates has partnered with GE Digital to reduce fuel costs and carbon emissions, enhancing the sustainability of its fleet and operations.

Title:

Content: GE to provide Emirates with new sustainability solutions
T + T - normal size
At the Dubai Airshow 2021, GE Digital announced an agreement with Emirates, one of its longtime customers, to provide two new aviation data solutions that will further advance its sustainability goals.
Emirates will implement fuel monitoring software and collect aircraft data before take-off from GE Digital to help reduce fuel costs and carbon emissions.
Emirates is seeking to use these solutions to enhance the sustainability of its fleet and operations.
As part of the agreement, the two sides will work together to harness GE ’ s digital expertise in aviation data software solutions and address key issues in aviation operations that limit fuel efficiency and reduce carbon emissions to achieve industry-wide efficiency, implement predictive maintenance, digitize records and enhance pilots ’ access to accurate data.
Responsibility.
Captain Hassan Al Hammadi, Senior Vice President Technical Air Operations at Emirates, said: “Emirates recognises that environmental responsibility is central to the long-term success of the business.
Ensuring that we operate in a sophisticated and fuel-efficient manner has been at the heart of our business model since the inception of Emirates.
There is no doubt that we are continuing to invest in reducing our environmental footprint, and these solutions will help us achieve our goals.
We aim to provide pilots with advanced tools and technologies that enhance aviation safety and efficiency.
Fuel monitoring software is a solution to reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions, and it works by reading real data from the aircraft and the airline.
The software leverages GE ’ s digital platform with reliable aviation data and analytics to integrate aircraft data with its route diagrams to reveal valuable results that help boost fuel efficiency and reduce carbon emissions.
The software also provides aircraft operators with research outputs that are applicable at many levels and supports analytics to move from overview to fine-grained macro details to understand the problem of each flight.
Pre-departure data collection software is designed in collaboration with pilots, giving them direct access to the data, and providing data collected from operations to make informed decisions about fuel and how to take off.
Post-takeoff software, which Emirates already uses with its pilots, provides secure access to data from the aircraft ’ s own registry, allowing pilots to analyse the operations of the aircraft they are flying in and improve operations and efficiency.
A commitment.
Andrew Coleman, General Manager of Aviation Programs at GE Digital, said: “We are committed to making the world a better place for future generations, including ensuring our customers are supported to reduce the impact of their technology and environmental footprint on their operations.
Sustainability is at the heart of the aviation industry ’ s future, and achieving climate neutrality by 2050 is a key goal for the industry, so the application of new technologies is key to achieving this in the long term. We look forward to continuing to work towards these goals, especially as we have the data and solutions to help the industry achieve zero emissions, with data already within our reach.
We are confident that our innovative technologies are ready to tackle the challenges as we continue to innovate in the future of the aviation industry.
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The projected average annual growth rate of air passenger traffic is approximately 3% per annum.

Title:

Content: Loading

IATA /ACI offer positive air transport forecasts, but concerns emerge about extended WHO powers

Analysis

IATA and ACI have both formally reported recovery in passenger numbers in 2022, averaging 70% of 2019 volumes compared to 42% in the previous year – although large-scale regional discrepancies remain. North American airlines have led the recovery and seem set to continue to do so.

IATA expects industry-wide passenger traffic to recover to 2019 levels in 2024, then grow at an average rate of approximately 3% per annum over its forecast horizon. ACI broadly concurs.

During the COVID-19 pandemic CAPA commented on a seeming lack of coordination between global health and transport authorities, with individual governments often left to negotiate and agree between themselves on whether or not citizens would be permitted to travel, and under what circumstances.

This undoubtedly delayed the recovery, and then the industry was swamped by a sudden relaxation of restrictions for which it was unprepared. A huge improvement in that coordination is required before the next pandemic or other black swan event arrives.

But at the same time there must be deep concern at the attempt by the WHO to take control of the issuing of digital passports globally from national governments, together with the authority to otherwise halt international travel for those that do not have them – even on the basis of a potential health emergency.

Summary

  • Passenger traffic recovered from 41.7% of 2019 volumes in 2021 to 68.5% (IATA)/72% (ACI) in 2022.
  • Global passenger traffic is forecast to reach 8.4 billion passengers, or 92% of 2019 levels, in 2023 (ACI).
  • North American airlines have led the industry recovery.
  • International traffic increased significantly wherever travel restrictions were lifted, and that supports a positive outlook for (previously slow-to-recover) Asia Pacific.
  • O-D passenger traffic increased 31.6% year-on-year during 2022, but since Jul-2022 it has "mostly trended sideways" compared to 2019 levels.
  • IATA's Global Air Connectivity Index recovered to 74% of pre-pandemic levels for international connectivity and 87% for domestic connectivity, as of Dec-2022.
  • International ticket sales gradually caught up to domestic sales in 2022.
  • Most air ticket sales are for travel in the near future, as passengers still perceive some degree of uncertainty.
  • IATA expects industry-wide passenger traffic to recover to 2019 levels in 2024, then grow at an average rate of approximately 3% per annum over its forecast horizon.
  • The recovery and near term growth of passenger traffic will vary across regions, with North America leading the way.
  • There is uncertainty about whether primary or secondary level airports will benefit the most, ‘post-COVID’.
  • What value do forecasts 20 years into the future have today?
  • Concerns grow about a potential power grab by WHO that would dictate the imposition of global vaccine passports.

The Three Amigos. Not.

The two organisations might be literally next door to each other in Montreal’s prestigious Victoria Square, but it is rare, to say the least, that the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Airports Council International (ACI) are found “singing from the same hymn sheet”. At times there might be a Green Line between them, manned by blue-helmeted UN troops.

It is particularly gratifying that they are now doing precisely that, since the air transport business seems at last to be putting the massive disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic behind it.

Just when it will be safe to declare it all over, and come out from behind the sofa, rests of course with the World Health Organization (WHO), which has it in its powers to reduce COVID-19 from pandemic to endemic status but is reluctant to do that just yet.

When the United Nations agency does so it will be the moment for another one, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), which is based – you guessed it – in an office block right across the road from IATA and ACI, to step up to the plate, to investigate and acknowledge what it did right and wrong, especially during the early months of the pandemic; and especially the ‘wrong’ parts.

Montreal is to Air Transport what Rome, Mecca, Varanasi and Amritsar are to religion; as Washington is to political power; and as Paris is to romance. Montreal is the home, in this instance, to a tripartite power base that – if it hasn’t done so already – must strive to ensure that the global air transport industry is never again blindsided by an obscure pneumonia, reputedly arising out of an anonymous Chinese city.

Far better liaison will be needed from the get-go if COVID is ever repeated

And just as individual countries across the world are beginning their own investigations into how they handled or mishandled COVID, promising as ever that “lessons will be learned” (and often seeking to apportion blame rather than derive accurate information on which to base future strategies), Montreal collectively must seek to work closely and authoritatively with the WHO to make sure there is far better coordination of responses between governments and operators.

In particular, better coordination of the enforcing and lifting of travel bans, compared to what CAPA often described in 2021 as a “chaotic” lack of strategy.

Concerns grow about extended vaccine/passport powers sought by WHO

It must be of concern to airlines and airports alike that the WHO is seeking – and will probably soon get – powers to control the global response to future pandemics that will be above those of independent nations.

Moreover, it is pushing for global vaccine passports, digital certificates and other health-related documents to be adopted under its own auspices when it declares “potential or actual” health emergencies. That may be ratified as soon as May-2024.

Thus, the decision as to whether an individual can travel from their own country to a foreign one anywhere in the world would be at the whim of an unelected body in New York, rather than with nationally elected governments.

If an outbreak of Ebola in West Africa resulted in a single case on another continent, that could (in theory, at least) lead to air travel being available only to those that have been vaccinated against that disease, and that imposition would probably remain even after the outbreak was over.

Indeed, it could mean the imposition of such vaccination mandates simply on the grounds of a “potential” emergency, without transmission being detected away from the original source.

If the representative bodies for airlines and airports are not concerned about this development and are not lobbying governments about it right now – in a coordinated response – then it has to be asked: why not?

That light at the end of the tunnel is growing brighter; there’s a stronger willingness to fly, but bookings still left until late in the day

But for now, the air transport business will be grateful to see the light at the end of the tunnel growing brighter with every passing day.

Turning first to IATA’s 4Q2022 report, which was published in Feb-2023, the key takeaways are: passengers demonstrating a stronger willingness to fly, but waiting until nearer the travel date to book owing to continuing uncertainty; North America leading the recovery and reaching 2019 traffic levels in 2023, at least a year earlier than the rest of the world; and Asia Pacific taking the longest to recover (2025).

IATA, in its Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook for 4Q2022, reported the following passenger traffic highlights:

  • Industry-wide traffic in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) continued its steady recovery in Dec-2022 and for the full year 2022. Global air travel gained momentum and recovered substantially as travel restrictions were removed and passengers expressed a strong willingness to fly. Traffic recovered from 41.7% of 2019 volumes in 2021 to 68.5% in 2022;
  • North American airlines led the industry recovery, followed by Latin American and European airlines;
  • Routes between Europe and various regions recovered swiftly in 2022, driven by pent-up demand and the reopening of air travel markets. Traffic on routes connecting various regions to Asia were the slowest to recover due to travel restrictions;
  • International traffic increased significantly wherever travel restrictions were lifted. The recent relaxations of China's zero-COVID policies and the reopening of air travel markets support a positive outlook for Asia Pacific;
  • Global origin-destination (O-D) passenger traffic increased to 75% of pre-pandemic levels in Jul-2022. O-D passenger traffic increased 31.6% year-on-year during 2022, but has "mostly trended sideways" compared to 2019 levels since Jul-2022;
  • IATA's Global Air Connectivity Index recovered to 74% of pre-pandemic levels for international connectivity and 87% for domestic connectivity as of Dec-2022. The number of domestic airport pairs served returned to pre-pandemic levels, but only 85% of international airport pairs have been restored. The recovery in international flight frequency lags further behind at 77% of pre-pandemic levels. International connectivity recovery reached 102% in Latin America and the Caribbean, 84% in North America, 82% in Europe and 52% in Asia Pacific;
  • International ticket sales gradually caught up to domestic sales in 2022, due to positive developments in international travel demand and the easing of travel restrictions in China. International ticket sales improved in Jul-2022, despite high energy prices, traffic disruptions and other economic headwinds. The latest trends in domestic and international ticket sales indicate sustained activity levels over the northern winter period;
  • Most air ticket sales are for travel in the near future, as passengers still perceive some degree of uncertainty when making travel arrangements. 88% of tickets sold in 4Q2022 were for travel within four months, and 12% were for periods beyond four months from the purchase date;
  • IATA expects industry-wide passenger traffic to recover to 2019 levels in 2024, then grow at an average rate of approximately 3% p/a over its forecast horizon. Forecast risks are skewed to the downside due to various headwinds in the near term, including a prolonged war in Europe, high jet fuel prices, elevated general price levels, and slowing growth in the global economy;
  • IATA expects the recovery and near term growth of passenger traffic will vary across regions. North America traffic is forecast to recover to 2019 levels in 2023, followed by Latin America, the Middle East and Europe in 2024, and by Africa and Asia Pacific in 2025.

ACI's forecasts overlook socio-political and socio-economic trends which spurn the very concept of air travel

IATA has focused on the here, now and near future in its report. ACI does the same but also projects forward as far as 2041.

In the light of events in the first three years of the 2020s – a decade that may turn out to be as blighted as were the periods 1915-1925 and 1935-1945 – with the threat of globally transmitted diseases lingering, along with wars and conflict actual and anticipated, and technology progressing at an exponential rate, it could reasonably be asked: what is the point of extrapolating air travel almost 20 years into the future anyway?

ACI says its data set presents 20-year traffic forecast figures, providing airport planners and investors with “reliable data”, but how can such data really be reliable today?

At least, if the status quo is somehow miraculously retained ACI has good news for those who work in the business

ACI World, in its 2022 and short term outlook, reported, like IATA, an upsurge in air travel demand across many markets amid heightened macroeconomic risks.

Highlights include:

  • Global passenger traffic was 6.5 billion passengers in 2022, reaching 72% of 2019 levels;
  • International passenger numbers were at 60% of 2019 levels and domestic reached 79%;
  • Recovery in passenger volumes remained uneven across the globe, with Latin American-Caribbean markets reaching 91% of 2019 levels, whereas the Asia Pacific region lagged at 52%;
  • Global passenger traffic is forecast to reach 8.4 billion passengers, or 92% of 2019 levels, in 2023. Baseline projections indicate the industry will recover to 2019 levels by 2024, driven mainly by domestic travel.

The ‘opening up’ of China could be a false dawn, and a ‘strong labour market’ means little when workers seek food charity

ACI World Director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira said, "86% of [survey] respondents plan to travel by air in 2023 – this is the highest intention to travel score since the beginning of the pandemic".

Mr Oliveira added, "The possible slowing in GDP growth in major economies[,] coupled with the rise in airfares due to higher jet fuel prices[,] weigh negatively on demand. On the other hand, a strong labour market and the re-opening of China, the second largest aviation market after the United States, represent an important boost to global passenger traffic".

So it is fair to say that both IATA and ACI are confident about the immediate prospects for the business, irrespective of economic downturns, inflation (which is stabilising, or at least not getting any worse in many countries), and military conflict.

At the same time it seems a little strange to talk about a strong labour market when leisure air travel is dictated by factors such as real income elasticity of demand, i.e. how much disposable income remains after the bills have been paid (and for many there is not much of that). Not by how much one earns.

Equally, is it not somewhat naïve to talk about ‘the re-opening of China’ when the proven provision of arms to Russia by China in order to perpetuate the Ukraine War would probably ensure massive economic retaliation by the nations of the West, not to mention the continuing potential for China to invade Taiwan?

Nevertheless, it is perfectly reasonable for ACI to assume that none of this will happen, that the Ukraine conflict will soon be resolved (and ACI admits it probably won’t), that COVID will quickly fade into history as its symptoms become those of a light cold, that inflation will reduce to normal, that there will be no more black swans, (that the aliens won’t invade…and that pigs might fly!).

In that case the world can anticipate, in the period 2023-2041:

  • Passenger traffic worldwide is expected to reach 19.3 billion in 2041;
  • Airports are predicted to handle almost 200 million tonnes of air cargo worldwide. The US and China will remain the two largest markets, accounting for 40% of global cargo;
  • Airports worldwide will handle 153.8 million aircraft movements. The US, China and India are predicted to be the leading markets for aircraft movements in 2041.

Will bigger or smaller airports win in the future?

There is an intriguing dichotomy between a previous statement from IATA, which dates to Nov-2022 and which concerns European preferences, and a recent statement by an American Airlines executive, speaking about US airports.

Those statements are contradictory, and indicative of the confusion which remains ‘post-COVID.’

In Nov-2022 IATA reported the following results from a survey of 500 European business leaders:

  • 89% believed that being close to an airport with global connections gives them a competitive advantage;
  • 84% could not imagine doing business without access to air transport networks;
  • 82% thought their business could not survive without connectivity to global supply chains via air transport;
  • 61% rely on aviation for global connectivity either exclusively (35%) or in combination with intra-Europe travel (26%). The remainder (39%) primarily use intra-European networks. 55% reported that their offices are purposefully located within an hour of a major hub airport;
  • 82% stated that air connectivity is more important than rail connectivity, with 71% reporting that the rail network is an adequate alternative for business travel and 64% saying that they would use rail more often for business travel if the costs were lower.

It would appear that in Europe the ‘desire’ within business circles, at least to travel through hubs rather than find and use a direct flight from a secondary airport, has returned. Undoubtedly this tendency will have been influenced by the service levels provided by alliance member airlines, both in the air and on the ground.

That state of play does seem to contrast somewhat with the position in the US, where American Airlines’ MD for Corporate Real Estate and Facilities, Katherine Goudreau, stated in Feb-2023 that passenger migration had resulted in "explosive" growth at small-to-medium sized airports (presumably for her airline), as passengers "abandon" larger cities.

Ms Goudreau noted that increased traffic may result in infrastructure issues, including parking constraints as facilities are unable to accommodate rapid growth, and she was probably speaking in general terms about ‘passenger migration’ from both the business and leisure segments, whereas the IATA survey was specifically of business leaders.

Nevertheless, the gulf in the philosophies is yet another mark of how hard it continues to be in such difficult times to identify accurately, and to forecast, global trends in the business.

That has ramifications for airports, airlines and tourist authorities, among many others.

There is plenty of work here for university postgraduate research degree applicants to get stuck into.

The full IATA and ACI reports can found online at CAPA’s website under IATA (subsection News) and ACI (subsection News).

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The percentage of commercial aircraft deliveries that will be single-aisle jets is expected to be 70% by 2040.

The air travel demand in Asia and Pacific increased by 22.6% year-on-year.

Title:

Content: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released data for June 2024 for the global air travel industry.
• Total travel demand (measured in passenger revenue per kilometre), up 9.1% compared to June 2023.
Overall capacity (measured in available seats per kilometre) increased by 8.5% year-on-year.
The load factor in June stood at 85.0%, up 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
• Global travel demand increased by 12.3% compared to June 2023, while capacity increased by 12.7% year-on-year, and load factor improved to 85.0%, down 0.3 percentage points compared to June 2023.
• Domestic demand for travel increased by 4.3% compared to June 2023, and capacity increased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the load factor stabilizing at 85.0%, up 1.7 percentage points compared to June 2023.
Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said: “All regions recorded growth in demand with the start of the Northern Hemisphere summer travel season in June.
As total demand capacity growth slowed, we saw a load factor of 85% in both domestic and international operations.
Operating with such high load factors is both useful and challenging.
It is therefore important that all parties involved work efficiently to reduce delays and ensure that passengers arrive at their destinations on time. ”
Walsh added: “As the Olympic Games kick off in Paris, we are proud of the continued role of the aviation industry in supporting this event by bringing many athletes, fans and officials together, to remind us of the power of aviation to transform our world into a global community.
We wish France every success in hosting the Games, and we encourage all athletes to do their best in the coming weeks. ”
Global air travel markets - details by region
All regions recorded strong growth in international passenger markets in June 2024 compared to June 2023.
Airlines in the Middle East recorded a 9.6% year-on-year rise in travel demand.
Capacity increased 9.4% year-on-year, while the load factor stabilized at 79.7%, up 0.1 percentage point from June 2023.
Airlines in Asia Pacific maintained strong growth, up 22.6% year-on-year in travel demand.
Capacity increased by 22.9% year-on-year, while the load factor stabilized at 83.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from June 2023.
The Africa-Asia line was the fastest growing with an increase of 38.1%.
European airlines also reported a 9.1% year-on-year rise in travel demand.
Capacity increased by 9.8% year-on-year, while the load factor stabilized at 87.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from June 2023.
Airlines in North America reported a 6.6% year-on-year rise in travel demand.
Capacity increased 8.6% year-on-year, while load factor stabilized at 88.7%, down 1.6 percentage points from June 2023, the highest among all regions.
Latin American airlines also reported a 15.3% year-on-year rise in travel demand.
Capacity increased by 15.6% year-on-year, while the load factor stabilized at 85.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from June 2023.
African airlines saw a 16.9% year-on-year rise in travel demand.
Capacity increased 5.8% year-on-year, while load factor increased to 77.0%, up 7.4 percentage points from June 2023, the largest increase in load factor among all regions.
Local Markets
Domestic demand for travel surged in June in most major markets except Japan and Australia.
Brazil recorded the largest increase of 7.6% year-on-year, while domestic ticket sales in June for travel in July and August fell 0.9%, indicating a gradual decline in demand back to pre-pandemic growth rates.
- Done.
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The aviation sector is expected to return to profitability by 2023, although at lower levels than before the pandemic, according to participants.

Title:

Content: Doha World Air Transport Summit charts path to further recovery
Losses are expected to fall to just $9.7 billion this year.
Recommendations for greater collaboration between parties to achieve sustainability goals
Mustafa Talaat
9: 26 AM, Sunday, 25 Sep 22
“Sustainability, environmental conservation and the road to greater recovery. ”
Words summarizing the most important points discussed by the fourth edition of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Global Finance Symposium, which was hosted in the Qatari capital Doha this year, with the participation of senior officials and aviation industry experts worldwide.
Al Mal attended the event, which is the largest in the industry since the outbreak of the Coronavirus epidemic at the end of 2019, in which more than 50 officials, experts and leaders representing all aspects participated and discussed the most prominent challenges and financial strategy to advance the future of the industry during the coming period.
The participants described the recent crises in the air transport sector as one of the biggest problems in its history, especially given the complexity of the situation with the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war.
The World Air Transport Association estimated that the sector's losses by the end of this year alone amounted to $9.7 billion, a significant decline as a result of the lifting of travel restrictions, after witnessing a series of losses with the repercussions of the Coronavirus amounted to about $190 billion.
Participants said the sector is likely to return to profitability by 2023, but certainly at lower levels than before the pandemic, pointing out that the high level of corporate debt due to borrowing will remain the biggest challenge for financial managers, especially as companies commit to achieving their zero carbon targets by 2050, which will require greater investment in this aspect and pressure the financial resources of entities.
Participants stressed that the path to sustainability and achieving the industry ’ s goal of zero carbon emissions – Fly Net Zero – will require the cooperation of all stakeholders – airlines, financial managers, employees and government officials.
The seminar was held in the presence and patronage of the Minister of Transport, Jassim bin Saif Al-Sulaiti, and a number of officials. Wali Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), and Akbar Al-Baker, Chief Executive Officer of Qatar Airways, also participated in the opening session.
This was followed by dozens of dialogue sessions over the course of two days, in which the most prominent participants were: « Mohammed Bakri, Senior Vice President of Financial Settlement Services at the International Air Transport Association, and Mary Owens Thompson, Chief Economist at the Union ».
In addition to the participation of: Duncan Naismith, Chief Financial Officer of Qatar Airways, Teresa Parejo, Head of Sustainability at Iberia, Eric Soelheim, Chairman of the Financial Advisory Board for Industry, Chief Financial Officer of KLM, Caroline Dreschell, Head of Joint Responsibility at Lufthansa Group, and others.
Wally Walsh, director-general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said sustainability in the aviation sector was crucial, but it ran counter to the policy of taxing airlines for failing to commit to cutting carbon emissions.
Mr Walsh said: “Taxes are not particularly used to reduce carbon and therefore add nothing to the environment. ”
He believes that the benefits of preserving the environment are less than the risks of disruption of communication between the world through aviation, predicting that airlines will not see a hydrogen-powered aircraft before 2040 or 2050.
Numerous studies have shown that border closures have done nothing to protect citizens; for example, China ’ s zero-covid policy has lost its position as a global aviation hub.
He pointed out that the current high oil prices will certainly reflect on the prices of airline tickets, expecting companies to return to profitability rates in 2023.
Akbar Al Baker, Chief Executive Officer of Qatar Airways and Chairman of Qatar Tourism Authority, said: “The circumstances of the sector have made us meet more than once in a short time, not long ago we held a General Assembly meeting here in Doha to discuss resilience after the epidemic. ”
“Today, we are focusing on the future of the industry, companies and the entire planet as part of our mission to eliminate carbon emissions by 2050, and airlines around the world are taking serious steps to reduce these emissions. ”
The biggest challenge for the world ’ s aviation industry is political unrest, followed by inflation, fuel prices, employment and infrastructure in later stages.
He explained that the industry went through the Coronavirus pandemic as a major challenge before going through successive obstacles due to high oil prices and manpower shortages, as well as a decline in investment due to restrictions imposed on airlines due to a commitment to support the climate issue.
He pointed out that governments place restrictions on aviation, claiming that it is the main cause of carbon dioxide emissions, although it contributes only 3% of total carbon emissions.
He said that the market lacks human talent in managing the energy sustainability portfolio in the aviation sector, stressing that there is a large role for politicians to help the aviation sector with regard to the climate.
He explained that the oil companies have a great commitment in terms of the production of sustainable aviation fuel (known as SAF), pointing out that Qatar Airways will buy from it if provided at an appropriate price.
SAF fuel is three times more expensive than kerosene and is purchased as a sign of the airline ’ s commitment to mitigating environmental impacts.
Al-Baker stressed that hydrogen and hybrid electric propulsion still have many years to go, making increasing the production of sustainable aviation fuel even more important for the industry.
He said that investment decisions, especially in the field of sustainability, will have a significant impact on the financial affairs of companies in the short and long term and affect their future solvency.
He stressed the need to make huge investments in aircraft and new technologies, which have been hampered by financing in the field of sustainability and environmental solutions due to global regulations.
He said that the years following the coronavirus epidemic are the most successful in aviation history, pointing out that time is still dangerous and we do not know how things will develop as there is a possibility that tourism and travel will be affected by demand processes.
He pointed out that the performance of Qatar Airways was better than most companies, after it succeeded in intensifying its activity quickly and opened new destinations after the Coronavirus pandemic.
He explained that Hamad International Airport in Doha will open next October an expansion that will increase its capacity to 58 million passengers annually in conjunction with the World Cup, pointing out that there is a next phase to develop it to increase its capacity to 70 million passengers by the end of 2025.
Qatar Airways achieved record profits of $1.54 billion in the fiscal year 2021-2022 with total revenues of $14.4 billion, up 78% from the previous fiscal year, and up 2% from the fiscal year 2019-2020 before the Coronavirus pandemic.
Mohamed Al Bakri, Senior Vice President of the International Air Transport Association for Financial Settlement and Distribution Services, said that the real test for the sector is the lessons learned from the crises it has experienced over the past two years through the application of the collective action mechanism.
The industry has been closed for two years, but we have succeeded with hard work, commitment and determination to survive, he said, noting that the aviation sector was the only worldwide corridor for medicines, vaccines, and medical supplies in all countries.
He pointed out that learning from the mistakes of the two years is moving forward positively, and now we look forward to more support from policymakers and try to continue on the road to recovery, especially as the demand for travel continues.
He stressed that the new reality must focus on our customers and their needs, the customer is still the first choice for us, stressing the need to be financially flexible and companies stronger financially.
“We have to be financially able to continue to deliver the benefits and values we have shown because the world needs us, and aviation is no longer a luxury or an option but a necessity for human life. ”
The airline ’ s CFOs are working to rebuild balance sheets after the losses of the past two years by creating capital structures that support the ambitions of the plan to reach zero carbon emissions by 2050 and attract the necessary funding.
He stressed the need for continuous reporting on the environment, in addition to working on the digital transformation and transformation of the retail model of airlines and the impact of all this on the systems and capabilities of the financial departments of the sector.
Mary Owens Thompson, chief economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said the recovery in the travel sector was supporting expectations of a return to 2019 levels by 2024.
Future bookings remain strong, with international bookings accelerating despite continued coronavirus travel restrictions in Asia, particularly in China.
Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to reach about 3 percent this year, half the growth achieved in 2021, and emerging economies will bear the brunt of the challenges this creates.
“Job growth should help mitigate the impact of rising inflation and interest rates. ”
It sees forecasts of a compound annual growth rate in the sector of 3.4% between 2019 and 2040.
Aviation is a necessary component of economic development and was recognized more than 75 years ago in an agreement signed in Chicago, she said.
Qatar Airways Chief Financial Officer Henk Jan Hogendoorn said geopolitical turmoil was the aviation industry ’ s overriding concern and that it had translated into an economic crisis after rising oil prices and rising inflation as consumers had less purchasing power.
Demand for travel is likely to continue to suffer, but there are still some residual effects of the epidemic as well, most notably the ongoing travel restrictions in certain parts of the world, especially with concern that these restrictions will increase with the advent of winter in the northern hemisphere.
Zoom and other forms of online meetings and conferences had little impact on the crisis, but what is becoming more apparent is the growing environmental awareness that is likely to continue as airlines and the industry as a whole will need to do more to educate the public about the environment.
He stressed that the rise in the value of the dollar will also have an impact on many airlines as they incur more costs, especially in fuel, and therefore the exchange rate has a negative impact on net income.
He predicted that costs will continue to rise, especially in the labor sector, which is poised for a sharp increase, not only because of the shortage of manpower but also because of regulations in force around the world.
He said there had been an increase in interest on investment funds in aviation, with good prospects for rising air freight revenues and a recovery in travel traffic.
Daniel Culver, market participation officer at Platts, an energy data provider, said: “With sustainable jet fuel as a key component of an airline ’ s cost base, hedging will be vital to avoid negative impacts from these companies appearing on their balance sheets.
He pointed out that airlines hedge to secure their profit margins and protect against losses, making financial planning more accurate and difficult.
He added that the difference between the price of crude oil and jet fuel is expected to remain high throughout 2023, after reaching record levels during the epidemic period as producers changed levels of jet fuel production during those periods.

The North American market is forecasted to have the highest demand for new aircraft, with a demand of 9,160.

Title:

Content: China surging news reported on the 15th, the United States Boeing released the 2021 version of the "Civil Aviation Market Forecast" report on the 14th, noting that basically, the global market is recovering according to the company's 2020 expectations.
The recovery in domestic air travel demand is leading the trend, with the interregional market expected to recover with the relaxation of hygiene and travel restrictions, and eventually remote international travel will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023-2024.
In the next 20 years, the demand for new aircraft will reach 43,610, the highest in the North American market is 9,160, and the demand in China is 8,700.
The report pointed out that the economic recovery has laid the foundation for a rebound in air passenger traffic, and the future prospects for air passenger traffic will remain stable.
Looking forward to 2025, GDP will increase by more than 15% compared to 2019, and GDP per capita will increase by about 10%.
The 21-year average passenger flow growth from 2019 to 2040 is expected to be 4%, in line with last year ’ s forecast, indicating that the basic global demand for air transport has not changed.
The report predicts that due to cyclical and structural market dynamics, the future air cargo market demand is strong, and full cargo aircraft is a significant growth area, including original cargo aircraft and modified cargo aircraft are forecast to increase from the previous year.
Thanks to the growth of e-commerce and the speed and reliability of air cargo, the world cargo fleet will increase from about 2,000 in 2019 to about 3,400, and the sustainable demand for air cargo will increase the global cargo fleet by more than 70% compared to the pre-pandemic size by 2040.
Notably, the report predicts that the world will need 19,000 civilian aircraft worth $3.2 trillion in the next 10 years, and demand for more than 43,500 new aircraft worth $7.2 trillion in the 20-year period to 2040, an increase of about 500 over the previous year ’ s forecast.
Among them, as of 2040, the demand for regional jets is 2,390, single-aisle aircraft 32,660, wide-body aircraft 7670, wide-body cargo aircraft 890, and aircraft demand totals 43,610.
The North American market has the highest demand, at 9,160, and the Chinese demand is 8,700.
This demand will lead to a 3.1% annual growth in the global active fleet, with the global civil aviation fleet set to surpass 49,000 by 2040, China, Europe, North America and Asia Pacific each accounting for 20% of new aircraft deliveries, with the remaining 20% going to emerging markets.
Traffic disruptions have a significant impact on aircraft deliveries and active fleets due to the pandemic. The report anticipates that the civil aviation industry will need more than 7,500 new wide-body aircraft by 2040 to meet fleet renewal and long-term growth in demand in the remote passenger and cargo market.
These demand increased slightly from the previous year, but decreased by 8% from 2019.
At present, single-aisle aircraft account for nearly 64% of the global passenger fleet, and single-aisle aircraft account for the largest proportion of new aircraft deliveries, roughly in line with pre-pandemic forecasts, accounting for 75%, and demand for more than 32,500 aircraft over the next 20 years.
The report notes that global demand for new single-aisle aircraft is driven by the size and flexibility of single-aisle aircraft.
In the future, these new single-aisle aircraft will continue to promote the development of low-cost airlines and provide the needed alternatives for older, less efficient aircraft.
The three regional markets for the new single-aisle aircraft are Asia Pacific, Europe and North America, which account for more than 80% of global low-cost airline capacity in 2019 and throughout the forecast period.
In addition, the report predicts long-term growth in the short-haul market, especially in emerging markets, and predicts that intra-regional short-haul travel accounts for more than half of the industry ’ s total growth demand, with inbound travel alone accounting for 17% of the industry ’ s new capacity.
Historically, excursions have been spurred by improved services, such as new direct routes and lower fares through low-cost airlines.
The report predicts that the share of Asian airlines in the global market will continue to increase, with China ’ s passenger share expected to grow from 15% in 19 years to 20% in 2040, and Asia Pacific ’ s passenger share expected to grow from 18% in 19 years to 21%.
# Growth # Planes # Forecasts # Future # Markets

North American airlines are driving the recovery in air travel demand.

Boeing anticipates selling 43,000 aircraft over the next 20 years to meet growing travel demands and reduce carbon emissions.

Title:

Content: Orders for Airbus are superior to Boeing.
T + T - normal size
The first major air transport exhibition, since the beginning of the spread of the coronavirus in Dubai, showed a great disparity in terms of trade performance between the European Airbus and the American Boeing as the sector emerges from the crisis that hit it for months.
As with every high-level international gathering in the sector, attention has focused on the two major aircraft manufacturers, who are scrambling to attract orders, but competition in Dubai has not been very intense, as Airbus appeared to have overcome the COVID-19 crisis with orders and agreements announcing intentions to sell 408 new aircraft, surpassing orders from the Paris exhibition in 2019, in exchange for contracts to sell 78 Boeing aircraft. G ".
The European manufacturer has hit hard since the first day of the Dubai show on Sunday with a firm order for 255 single-aisle A-321s, a plane whose range and capacity offer passengers flexibility that increases its appeal to airlines.
Airbus president Guillaume Fawry in Dubai said: “The prospects are beginning to blossom.
Airlines are also starting to look further ahead and prepare for the post-crisis period. ”
While global travel, still at half its 2019 level, is expected to recover between 2023 and 2025, demand for new aircraft should rise in the next 20 years, according to aircraft manufacturers.
Airbus expects to sell 39,000 planes and Boeing 43,000 to cope with the increase in travel and get planes that consume less fuel and thus emit less carbon dioxide.
The U.S. aircraft maker appeared conservatively at the show, announcing in a statement a major order for 72 single-aisle 737-MAX aircraft for India ’ s newly established Akasa Air.
The 737 Max crashes, 787 production problems and delays in the adoption of the future 777X wide-body aircraft caused the company to stumble.
Boeing Commercial Director Ehsan Munir told reporters that “safety and quality will be the guiding principles of everything we do. ”
The company showed at the exhibition the 777X aircraft for the first time outside the United States, in an indication of the near licensing, especially as the Dubai-based Emirates airline alone accounts for a third of the orders on the expected aircraft, but « Boeing » did not announce the start of the process of manufacturing a cargo version of the aircraft, as was hoped in Dubai, noting that this will be « soon ».
Airbus CEO Guillaume Fawry said the range of orders the company received at the Dubai Airshow this week had boosted its hopes of increasing production.
Airbus received 265 confirmed orders at the Dubai show, narrowing the gap with Boeing, which has topped sales this year as its 737 MAX emerges from a safety crisis.
A further 139 temporary orders raised Airbus ’ Dubai tally to more than 400 aircraft, while Boeing picked up firm orders for 72 MAX jets.
Airbus has agreed to increase production to 65 single-aisle aircraft per month by 2023 from an average of 45 scheduled for this quarter.
In addition, Airbus has asked suppliers to consider production rates of 70 aircraft by early 2024 and 75 by 2025, but has not yet made a decision.
Some suppliers have criticized the plans, expressing concern that recovery from the coronavirus epidemic remains incomplete.
Fawry told Reuters in an interview this week: “We are in the process of evaluating the application.
What happened (in Dubai) is important, because it gives, along with expectations and other upcoming deals, evidence that the demand we see for 70 / 75 will continue for many years. ”
The view of demand based on orders received by Airbus and its own assumptions based on conversations with airlines is in line with the picture provided by the new Airbus market outlook published at the show.
Airbus deliveries have fallen in the past three months, partly due to supply chain disruptions.
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The Asia Pacific region saw the highest increase in air travel demand, with a 126.1% year-on-year increase in international passenger traffic.

Title:

Content: 【 Printing 】
Global aviation industry maintains strong recovery
Related LINKS http: / / www.CRNT.com 2024-02-21 17: 28: 20
BEIJING, Feb. 21 / According to the People ’ s Daily, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently released a report saying that the total volume of passenger traffic in the global aviation industry in December 2023 increased by 25.3% year-on-year, reaching 97.5% of the December 2019 level.
Among them, international passenger traffic increased by 41.6% year-on-year, close to 90% of the pre-COVID-19 level; domestic passenger traffic increased by 30.4% year-on-year, which has exceeded the pre-epidemic level.
According to the report of the International Air Transport Association, with the gradual recovery of air capacity, global airline operating income is expected to reach US $896 billion in 2023, an increase of 21.7% year-on-year, 107% of the pre-epidemic income level, and net profit of US $23.3 billion.
At the market level, the markets in Asia Pacific, North America and Europe performed well.
As a result of the rapid recovery in domestic markets such as China, the international passenger traffic of airlines in the Asia Pacific region increased by 126.1% year-on-year, becoming an important driving force for the growth of the global air passenger business.
In terms of cargo tonnage kilometers, global air cargo demand in 2023 was 3.6% lower than in 2019. Since the second half of 2023, global air cargo demand has been picking up steadily, with the fourth quarter showing a particularly strong performance.
In addition, according to the "Global Air Transport Industry Outlook Report" released by the International Air Transport Association, with the further opening of the global aviation market and the introduction of favorable policies in various countries, the number of passengers in 2024 is expected to exceed 4.7 billion, a new high since 2019, and the industry revenue will reach $964 billion, an increase of 7.6%.
The annual passenger growth rate is expected to be 4.2% between 2023 and 2040, and the number of passengers is expected to reach 7.8 billion in 2040.
According to Willie Walsh, president of the International Air Transport Association, it is heartening that the global aviation industry has maintained a strong recovery in the post-pandemic era. With people's willingness to go out for business, study and travel in the future, the development momentum of the global aviation industry is expected to further strengthen.
At the same time, governments need to continue to adopt new strategic measures to promote the comprehensive recovery of the aviation industry from the aspects of infrastructure construction, energy conservation and emission reduction.
Rei Zheng, president of the International Aviation Research Institute and director of the aviation department of Swinburne University of Technology in Australia, said in an interview that the rapid recovery of the global aviation industry in 2023 reflects the resilience and adaptability of the industry, but the overall vitality of the forward industry still needs to be improved.
According to their own characteristics, airlines of various countries should find the market positioning, expand the development space, especially small and medium-sized airlines need to further cultivate competitive market segments.
【 Printing 】
Related News:

Airbus anticipates selling 39,000 aircraft over the next 20 years to meet growing travel demands and reduce carbon emissions.

What is Airbus doing to achieve sustainable aviation?

It is making efforts to improve aircraft efficiency.

The Asia-Pacific region is expected to have the strongest growth in air travel demand.

Title:

Content: Aviation Carbon Fiber Market Set to Soar: Forecasting a $4.4 Billion Valuation by 2031

aviation-carbon-fiber-market-1675064937 (2)

Aviation Carbon Fiber Market Size, Share, Competitive Landscape and Trend Analysis Report : Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2021-2031

PORTLAND, PROVINCE: OREGAON, UNITED STATES, June 6, 2024 /EINPresswire.com/ -- According to a new report published by Allied Market Research, titled, "Aviation Carbon Fiber Market," The aviation carbon fiber market was valued at $1.5 billion in 2021, and is estimated to reach $4.4 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 11.4% from 2022 to 2031.

Asia-Pacific is expected to experience significant growth during the forecast period. China, Japan, and India are expected to remain lucrative markets in terms of increase in investment and R&D by domestic and overseas players. Increasing number of deliveries of commercial as well as general aviation aircrafts, owing to the significant growth in air traffic is a key factor driving the growth of the market in Asia-Pacific region. The region is experiencing growth in global transport with significant increase in passenger transport and air cargo market.

๐๐๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ - https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/request-sample/A12804

In November 2021, Boeing, an American aircraft manufacturer, predicted that air travel within the Asia-Pacific region will account for almost half of the world's air travel by 2040, with 17,645 new aircraft worth $3.1 trillion over 20 years. The increase in demand for aircrafts from commercial, military, and general aviation segments is expected to drive the growth for aviation carbon fiber market share in the region.

The factors such as rapidly growing & booming aviation industry, expansion of aircraft fleets by airline operators and rising expenditure by government in the aviation sector are the primary factors expected to propel the growth of aviation carbon fiber market in China. China is expected to invest more than $80 billion in aviation projects to keep up with the increasing demand for air travel. Also, over the next 20 years, Chinese carriers are expected to expand their fleets by more than 1,500 aircraft, a number that represents 20% of the demand worldwide, which is expected to offer numerous growth opportunities for carbon fiber market during the forecast period.

On the basis of raw material, the global aviation carbon fiber market has been segmented into PAN-based carbon fiber and Pitch-based carbon fiber. The PAN-based carbon fiber accounted for a significant market share in 2021. PAN-based carbon fibers are made from a synthetic fiber called polyacrylonitrile (PAN). The manufacturing of PAN-based carbon fibers includes spinning of the PAN co-polymer to form the fibers. The constant advancement in the technology to develop PAN-based carbon fibers to manufacture aircraft bodies and parts is expected to drive the growth of the market. For instance, in December 2019, Solvay and SGL Carbon announced a collaboration to develop highly-competitive advanced carbon fiber composites for primary structures in the aerospace industry. Under this agreement, the companies aim to provide the market with the first composite materials based on large-tow intermediate modulus (IM) carbon fiber.

๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ก ๐๐๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ - https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/aviation-carbon-fiber-market/purchase-options

There has been rise in use of carbon fiber in military aviation to provide significant weight and cost reductions. Moreover, there is an increase in the use of carbon fiber to produce military aircrafts as carbon fiber reduces around 50% of the structural weight of military aircrafts. Military aircrafts require lightweight structures to provide increased payload, improved agility, short take-off, long-range missions, and high maneuverable capabilities. The weight savings allow for a wider payload range, smaller subsystems for a given level of performance, and better fuel efficiency.

The rise in the application of carbon fiber to manufacture secondary structures, control surfaces, and wing & primary fuselage structures for military aircrafts is expected to drive the growth of the market. For instance, Eurofighter Typhoon is one of the most advanced fighter jets developed by a consortium of aerospace and defense companies from countries such as UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Its 40% of the structural weight is carbon fiber reinforced composite material. Moreover, the American fifth-generation fighter F/A-22 uses composite materials in fuselage, wings, and tail.

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The outbreak of COVID-19 reduced air transport and negatively impacted the aviation industry, which significantly decreased the demand for carbon fiber. The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted global demand for carbon fiber and its composites due to parked commercial aircrafts, domestic & international travel disruptions, and restrictions on travel activities. However, post-pandemic, strategies are being developed by governments to increase the production of locally produced carbon fiber material, supporting the growth of the market. For instance, in 2021, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited signed a memorandum of understanding with Mishra Dhatu Nigam Limited to develop and produce composite raw materials such as carbon fiber.

๐๐๐ค๐ ๐๐ง ๐๐ง๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ๐ข๐ง๐  - https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/purchase-enquiry/A12804

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By raw material, the PAN-based carbon fiber segment is anticipated to exhibit significant growth in the near future.
By type, the continuous segment is anticipated to exhibit significant growth in the near future.
By end use, the military segment is anticipated to exhibit significant growth in the near future.
By region, Asia-Pacific is anticipated to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period.

๐๐๐๐๐ข๐ง๐  ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฒ๐๐ซ๐ฌ :
Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation, Nippon Steel Corporation, SGL Carbon, Teijin Limited, Toray Industries, Inc., Hexcel Corporation, Solvay, Hyosung, OJSC SvetlogorskKhimvolokno, and DowAksa.

David Correa
Allied Market Research
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Asia Pacific is expected to lead the growth in air travel demand, with a projected annual growth rate of 4.5% over the next 20 years.

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Content: Monday 19-02-2024
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