**Summary - Nuggets of Relevant Information from Provided Text**

1.

**Predictive Modeling & Human Behavior**: Mathematical models are commonly used to predict future events (e.g., weather), but they are only effective when their assumptions about human behavior hold true.

Importantly, predictions themselves can alter outcomes, especially if they affect how people act—for example, a prediction undermining faith in a system can itself trigger change.

**Influence & Behavior Change Principles**: Principles like those described by Cialdini, which stem from real-world observation and are proven effective, can explain why some behaviors spread or persist.

These principles are robust over time.

**Human Routine, Change, and Group Influence**: People often organize life around "chapters," such as the start of a new year, which provides psychological opportunities for behavioral change.

Social groups exert strong influence—people motivated to change often seek communities exemplifying their goals.

Support systems and default options (habits) can shape ongoing behavior, and leveraging group dynamics or default settings can ease transitions.

**Barriers to Change**: Even when committed to a behavior change (e.g., quitting smoking), individuals may remain stuck without motivation, facing emotional inertia and lacking a solid support network.

Change is characterized as both hard and uncomfortable but achievable with the right psychological and social tools.

**External Factors and Organizations**: Economic and organizational trends (e.g., stock market cycles for companies like Clorox) can experience swift booms and busts, affected by growth, public sentiment, and external events.

These cycles reinforce that outcomes are not static and predictions/practices must be periodically re-evaluated against real-world data.

However, this extract included little direct information on MLM trends or examples, and mainly offered general behavioral science themes applicable to MLM dynamics.

**Summary - Nuggets of Relevant Information from Provided Text**

1.

Title:

Content: Webelos Advancement Chart: A Visual Reference of Charts

Webelos Advancement Chart is a topic that can benefit from charts. Charts are visual aids that help you display and understand data, patterns, or trends. They can be used for various purposes, such as education, business, science, and art. In this web page, you will find a Webelos Advancement Chart, a visual reference of charts. You will see a selection of chart images that show different aspects of Webelos Advancement Chart, such as Pin On Boy Scouts, Webelos Advancement Chart, Pin On Boy Scouts, and more. You will also discover how to use Webelos Advancement Chart, such as how to read, compare, and apply the charts. This Webelos Advancement Chart will help you with Webelos Advancement Chart, and make your Webelos Advancement Chart more enjoyable and effective.

**Predictive Modeling & Human Behavior**: Mathematical models are commonly used to predict future events (e.g., weather), but they are only effective when their assumptions about human behavior hold true.

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Content: Reel science

The biggest sci-fi show of 2021 reveals the real science of predicting the future

“Maths is the best way we have of understanding the world around us.”

Psychohistory is “the destiny of the human race expressed in numbers.”

In Foundation, an Apple TV+ series loosely based on the books by Isaac Asimov, psychohistory is the use of mathematical models to predict what will happen in the future. Developed by mathematical genius Hari Seldon and imparted to his young apprentice Gaal Dornick, these complex calculations point to a dangerous new world: one where an empire falls leading to 30-thousand years of dark ages.

What might save them is acting now on these predictions.

At its core, sci-fi fascinates audiences by using complex scientific ideas to help us make sense of complex worlds — both fictional and real. Accordingly, the idea that we can use math to make predictions on a large scale has its roots in real-life mathematics.

Maths is the best way we have of understanding the world around us,” Kit Yates, a mathematical biologist at the University of Bath and author of The Math of Life and Death, tells Inverse. Yates is currently working on a book about using math to predict the future — but don’t call her work psychohistory.

Warning: Light spoilers for Foundation below.

Reel Science is an Inverse series that reveals the real (and fake) science behind your favorite movies and TV.

Is psychohistory real?

Psychohistory isn’t technically a real area of study — but it does resemble real-life applications of real-life mathematics and psychology.

“Building mathematical models is the best way we have to make predictions about what will happen in the future,” Yates says.

Math is also used to interpret, rather than predict, human behavior.

“I do create mathematical models of human psychology, but my goal is not to predict future behavior, but to simplify — reveal the essence of — human psychology,’ George Loewenstein, the Herbert A. Simon University Professor of Economics and Psychology at Carnegie Mellon University, tells Inverse.

Mathematical models “don’t seek to capture human behavior in all its enormous complexity,” Loewenstein adds. He stresses “very few models could be used even to predict” the behavior of groups of people in particular situations, let alone the behavior of individuals.

Yates agrees — mathematical modeling works best on a larger scale. Even in Foundation, Hari’s mathematical models operate on the scale of empires, not human lives.

“Just as in Foundation, mathematical prediction works better when we try to predict what is going to happen at the population-level,” Yates says.

“Mathematical modeling is by no means a perfect framework. A model is only as good as the assumptions on which it rests.”

Using math to predict the future

While predicting the collapse of society might feel estranged from everyday life, you’ve likely already benefited from mathematical predictions.

For example, every time we look at the weather forecast on a smartphone, we’re relying on the power of mathematical models to predict the future.

“At a personal level, we need to know what the weather will be like this afternoon so we can decide whether or not to hang out the washing,” Yates says.

It’s also common to hear people trying to game the stock market or win the lottery using mathematical formulas and probabilities. In the stock market, people called “quants” spend their days generating algorithms to predict certain financial behavior and identify potential trading opportunities.

“Some people have successfully used mathematical models to predict not the stock market, but specific trends in specific sectors — which is all it takes to make money,” Loewenstein says.

Meanwhile, every time you purchase an item on Amazon, the site’s predictive modeling captures that data, using it to offer suggestions — predictions – about what you might like to purchase next.

Actuaries also use statistics to predict the likelihood of risks, while some police departments attempt to use predictive modeling to forecast crime (this type of modeling, however, is widely criticized).

“One of the biggest problems with making predictions is that they can change the future.”

Many of these mathematical models work only because they rely on certain assumptions about human behavior.

“One of the biggest problems with making predictions is that they can change the future – they can become self-defeating prophecies,” Yates says.

This concept is similar to one raised in Foundation. Hari argues exact predictions cannot be revealed to society at large, because if the world knew what was predicted, humans would alter their behavior (there’s more to this but that would be a major spoiler).

“For example, mathematical modeling at the start of the pandemic received criticism because it predicted hundreds of thousands of deaths – many of which didn’t come to pass,” Yates says.

“What people tend to forget in hindsight was that these were projections for what would happen if nothing was done to mitigate the spread of the disease,” he says. “In fact the predictions themselves acted as a wakeup call startling politicians into action, taking measures to save lives and turn the modeled predictions into self-defeating prophecies."

Loewenstein says only artificial intelligence (AI) could come close to predicting complex human behavior on that scale but “how the AI makes such predictions successfully won’t be comprehensible to humans.”

Can math predict the fall of nations?

In Foundation, we’re led to believe that Hari poses a threat to the empire because his predictions could lead to a loss of faith in the status quo. Hari’s apprentice, Gaal, meanwhile, is somewhat skeptical of Hari’s grand predictions.

Like Gaal, many real-life mathematicians are skeptical of using math to predict the course of nations.

“I do think social and behavioral scientists have some profound insights into when and why civilizations rise and fall, and these insights could be used to predict the future success of economies and even of the global economy,” Loewenstein says.

But he also adds, “few of these insightful and profound analyses make much, if any, use of math.”

Yates agrees, saying that “there are so many variables that feed into a process like the rise or fall of an empire, that predicting anything with any certainty is difficult.

Societal collapse hinges on several factors rooted in complex human behavior. Take the fall of Rome, for example. Historians are still debating what, exactly, caused the collapse of this powerful empire.

“That’s not to say that making predictions about large systems with many variables is impossible,” Yates argues.

It’s perhaps less controversial to use math to predict the fall of a nation than to ensure its survival. Today, mathematicians today are using algorithms to prevent gerrymandering — a process where politicians redraw congressional maps to favor certain voters at the expense of others.

Making math cool again

Recent shows like Foundation and movies like The Man Who Knew Infinity have featured younger and prominent characters of color in leading roles, countering the historical past of mathematics as a bastion of older white men. These kinds of media could make mathematics more accessible to a wider audience.

“I think there is a trope that portrays mathematicians on TV as quirky, eccentric, or unhinged,” Yates says.

Foundation both reinforces and challenges these tropes. Hari’s mathematical skills make him an outcast in the eyes of the empire — a threat to be eliminated.

But when Gaal counts numerical patterns under her breath to calm herself down, her companion largely accepts her explanation, rather than mocking her — a positive step forward in representation for math geeks everywhere. Similarly, the characters toss around phrases like “radical integers” and “proofs” in routine conversations.

These small details can help reinforce the idea that math is an everyday part of our world and that mathematicians are relatable people.

“I’m always at pains to point out that mathematicians are just normal people,” Yates says. “You don’t have to be different or an outcast to be a mathematician.”

Foundation is streaming now on Apple TV+.

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Innovation: A Source Of Hope In Times Of Crisis

Post written by Dr Nadia Millington, Senior Lecturer in Practice at LSE’s Department of Management.

Many business leaders are still grappling with the financial and human fallout of Covid, and understandably feel they don’t have the bandwidth to seek out innovative solutions in their businesses.

While conserving cash, cutting costs, driving efficiency and ensuring employee wellbeing should all be top priorities, innovation must not be neglected. In fact, focusing on innovation can be a source of great hope as we try to navigate safely out of the pandemic.

Discussions of hope in times of crisis are common across all Western philosophical traditions, but the term ‘hope’ is not usually discussed in regard to business innovation. The Standford encyclopedia of philosophy did a systematic review of the hope across past and contemporary philosophers and found some common threads. Hope is directed to future events; it leads to justified expectations and a desire for an outcome that makes life better in some way. Hope also promotes rational agency, that is, it’s not irrational optimism, but is based on the knowledge that achievement is possible.

Simply, hope can improve employee experiences at work by allowing them to envisage a better future and have the confidence that a ‘new normal’ is possible amidst the toughest of challenges.

So how then can innovation be a source of hope in crises?

From our experience observing a range of short-term innovation interventions within both large multinationals and social enterprises over the last 15 months, the greatest ‘hope uplift’ starts with the intentionality of the project. The best projects were developed around the most urgent or attractive opportunities and challenges based on the company’s expectations of the new normal beyond Covid. Companies that used this approach sought wide employee engagement to develop projects of true worth to the firm’s post-Covid future. One consulting firm that was particularly intentional about its project choice focused on 3 core themes: changing customer needs, digital adoption, and employee wellness. Employees were engaged and particularly committed as it provided an opportunity to refocus their energy on a brighter tomorrow.

In contrast, firms that simply chose to reimagine old projects, or focus on long-standing, complex and endemic issues, did not seem to have the same hope uplift. A case in point was a social enterprise that focused on innovating a new partnership model – a long-standing problem that had not been resolved by several prior attempts. Such a scattershot approach caused an already Covid-weary workforce to be less engaged in a project amid competing challenges.

A hope uplift is only possible when there is the chance of a beneficial outcome. Whilst there is no proven formula for innovation success, we found that employees had the greatest hope uplift when they expect that their efforts will potentially be rewarded by something new or a significant improvement in the workplace. Simply undertaking countless surveys about 'the future of work', or asking them to brainstorm solutions, was not sufficient, as consistently looking inwards for solutions put additional pressures on staff and stifled innovation. Without infusing external ideas, firms appeared to recycle less ambitious solutions and employee hopes atrophied over time.

In contrast, companies that gained the most hope uplift through their innovation projects tended to engage in ‘open innovation’ (OI), a term popularized by Henry Chesbrough. OI helps companies to leverage external sources of knowledge to solve problems in unique ways. Examples of OI include crowdsourcing, hackathons, lead users or open sourcing. We found that OI is particularly effective in achieving a hope uplift because it allows companies to conserve some of their internal resources to focus on business continuity and other critical tasks, while benefiting from the innovative solutions they’ve found by engaging with their external environment. Firms without prior OI experience were also able to benefit by using low cost OI partners, which complimented and energized internal teams without the need to overhaul the firm’s internal innovation process.

The final ingredient for hope uplift is belief. Employees need to believe that if they invest their time scoping the right project and seeking more novel solutions via OI, the result will be adopted or at least be considered. This is dependent on employees trusting that leaders will prioritize resources towards new solutions. To build this trust, leaders should be explicit about processes used to assess the value of solutions and allow more time to test ideas if staff are especially energized by them. We found that one of the biggest mistakes an organization can make is to sideline a project that employees initiated without clear communication or justification.

Whether we consciously address it in business or not, hope is an essential part of everyday life. There is no denying that Covid has led to significant social and economic fallout and, in doing so, made many employees disheartened about the future. But innovation – when done correctly – can counter this and create an uplift that leads to the renewed sense of optimism we so desperately need.

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**Influence & Behavior Change Principles**: Principles like those described by Cialdini, which stem from real-world observation and are proven effective, can explain why some behaviors spread or persist.

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Robert Cialdini’s Principles Of Influence Have Held Up For 40 Years, Here’s Why

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In recent years, behavioral science has been going through a replication crisis. Research results, some widely cited and some even applied to real-world problems, couldn’t be replicated when other researchers tried the same experiments. Sometimes, the failure to replicate is caused by differences in the experimental process or subject pool. In a smaller number of cases, findings have been discredited due to manipulated statistics or fabricated data. Ironically, a prominent dishonesty researcher has been accused of fraud.

Despite growing doubt in whether we should be using behavioral science findings in business and government, there is one body of work has endured for four decades and seems more applicable today than ever. Robert Cialdini’s seminal book Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion was published 40 years ago and remains a bestseller today.

Except for Dale Carnegie’s How To Win Friends and Influence People, no business book has endured as well as Influence. The book has sold seven million copies and has been translated into 44 languages. The latest edition weight in at a whopping 592 pages and 2.31 pounds. Even today, the book consistently ranks in the top 1,000 at Amazon, not in specific category but among all books sold there.

Cialdini’s principles have become common parlance in business. Many marketers who use the term “social proof” don’t realize it was coined by Cialdini in 1984. Influence has been endorsed by luminaries ranging from Warren Buffet and the late Charlie Munger to Gwyneth Paltrow and Guy Kawasaki.

What Are Cialdini’s Principles of Influence?

Cialdini’s Principles of Influence, sometimes called Principles of Persuasion, are, very briefly:

  1. Reciprocity: People tend to give back to others when they have received something first.
  2. Scarcity: People want things more when those things are scarce or limited.
  3. Authority: People pay attention to those who know more about a topic, like experts and celebrities, when making decisions.
  4. Consistency: People try to be consistent with past decisions and statements.
  5. Liking: People are more influenced by those they like, including those with whom they have something in common.
  6. Social Proof: People look to others for cues as to what they should do.
  7. Unity: A stronger form of Liking that goes beyond shared attributes and is based on shared identity - family members, teammates, and members of any group that the individual identifies strongly with.

In this short video, Cialdini himself describes each principle briefly:

Why Have Cialdini’s Principles Endured?

A big reason many behavioral science findings either don’t replicate or turn into useful real-world tools is that they tend to be lab studies, often conducted with students as subjects. If your results are based on 47 MIT sophomore psychology students, they may not tell you much about the behavioral tendencies of a broad swath of humanity. They may not even replicate at UCLA or Oxford.

Cialdini’s ideas are robust because he began not in a lab but in the real world. He spent three years going “undercover” and training at organizations he knew were effective persuaders: used car dealers, telemarketing firms, and fundraisers. These businesses had mastered the art of getting people to say “yes,” and the only way to learn their methods was to join them and go through their training.

It’s worth noting the level of sacrifice involved in taking years away from conventional research and publishing papers for an up-and-coming professor. But, sometimes great sacrifice yields great rewards.

By observing the techniques proven to work not in a lab but with real people spending real money, Cialdini was able to distill his six principles of influence, later expanded to seven. Further experimentation, often outside the lab and in environments like shopping malls and hotels, added more data to support Cialdini’s theories.

Countless Commercial Replications

Academic replication is fine, but the real test for a behavioral science finding is whether it can be applied across a range of real-world situations. In the forty years since Influence released, these principles have been used time and time again in every commercial context. When the travel site tells you there are “only two rooms left” and “23 people booked this hotel in the last 48 hours,” they are using scarcity and social proof. When the salesperson mentions that you are both fans of the same team or both dog owners, that’s liking. When you buy Lebron James basketball shoes or a book endorsed by an author you respect, that’s authority.

Businesses use the principles because they work, as shown by both experience and extensive testing.

Do Cialdini’s Principles Always Work?

These principles are so basic and ubiquitous one might expect that they will always increase compliance, i.e., boost the chance that the person will take the action you want. These mental shortcuts are reliably effective, but don’t work every time in every situation.

For example, digital marketing experts say that adding social proof to a landing page that previously lacked it will boost the page’s conversion rate nine times out of ten. But sometimes, it will have no effect or even reduce conversion.

What’s going on? There are lots of reasons why social proof might not work. Perhaps the product is so well known that there’s no need for social proof. Would hearing that a hundred million Americans drink Coca Cola make you more likely to buy some? Probably not.

Other types of products, like luxury or artisanal items, might actually be hurt by social proof. If you are buying an Italian supercar or a costly handbag that was hand-crafted by skilled artisans, the last thing you want to see is “thousands sold.” You prefer to imagine that yours is unique, and you’ll never see anyone with the same thing.

How to Apply Cialdini’s Principles

Sometimes, you don’t have to think too hard or worry about testing the effects of using a principle like authority. If a famous expert has declared your product to be amazing, put that endorsement where everyone will see it. There’s almost zero chance it won’t help sales.

Normally, though, the best way to use these powerful principles is to formulate a hypothesis you can test. If possible, use an A/B or multivariate test to see if, for example, “Over a million sold,” increases sales. There are, of course, endless variations you can try. For example, instead of touting the number of units sold, telling people the product is preferred by more than 50,000 businesses might be more persuasive. If you have many testimonials, test various combinations to see which work best.

The point in the customer journey makes a difference, too. If customers are unfamiliar with the product or the company, using authority will likely increase the number who move forward. If someone is ready to buy, on the other hand, scarcity may be the nudge they need to act.

Beyond Cialdini’s Principles

Beyond Cialdini's principles, other strategies based on behavioral science can change customer behavior. Dozens of cognitive biases can be applied in specific situations. Even factors like colors and type fonts can affect customer behavior. (Hint: small and difficult to read fonts usually reduce compliance.) Neuromarketing uses techniques like eye-tracking and brain imaging to uncover subconscious reactions that traditional methods miss.

Despite the myriad ways marketers can use behavioral science and neuroscience to improve results, even after four decades Robert Cialdini’s Principles of Influence are the best place to start. They are timeless and have been proven to be effective.

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These principles are robust over time.

**Human Routine, Change, and Group Influence**: People often organize life around "chapters," such as the start of a new year, which provides psychological opportunities for behavioral change.

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Content: Ronsisvalle: Change can be hard, messy and uncomfortable, but it's not impossible

Dr. Mike Ronsisvalle
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The psychotherapy session I was conducting seemed like Groundhog Day.

I was sitting with my engineer client, let's call him John, again talking about how he struggled to communicate well with his wife.

He told me again about his tendency to linger on facts and data points when discussing issues in the marriage.

While his wife wanted John to focus on her emotion and on empathy, John was getting stuck on providing “suggestions” about how she should respond to her stress regarding work and her relationship with her family.

He told me about how the conversation really took a turn for the worse when he asked his wife if she had been going to her yoga class and exercising.

After all, he was positive the research showed those activities would help her feel better.

John’s heart was in the right place, but he was again replicating all the maladaptive communication patterns that we had talked about for the past year in therapy.

As we discussed his therapy homework, John apologized for rehashing all the same problematic behaviors.

“I’m sorry we’re talking about the same thing over and over again," he said. "I want to do better, I’m just having a hard time executing in the moment.”

Therapeutic success:Ronsisvalle: Not making progress in therapy? Make sure you and therapist are good fit

Depression on the rise:Ronsisvalle: Depression rising at alarming rate among all demographics

Marijuana risks:Ronsisvalle: The dangers of marijuana are greater than you're being led to believe

The next client on my books couldn’t have been more different than John, but the session still felt like Groundhog Day to me.

Julia was a 22-year-old marijuana user who dropped out of college two years ago. She didn’t have any advanced degrees like John, she hadn’t been in a long-term romantic relationship in months and she was almost entirely disinterested in data of any kind.

Julia was a free spirit for sure, yet she was stuck in what seemed like an endless cycle of emotional addiction to marijuana. She talked with passion about her desire to stop smoking every week in session and was convinced marijuana had robbed her of motivation and investment in her future, but she just could not stop using.

Here you have two completely different individuals who are struggling with a very similar process: how does a human being create lasting behavior change?

It doesn’t matter whether you are an engineer trying to learn how to communicate better with your spouse or a marijuana user trying to stop smoking, the reality of our human condition is that it is difficult to make changes that last over time.

Change is hard and can be messy at first. Many of us feel like we are living Groundhog Day over and over again and are stuck in patterns of behavior that are incredibly difficult to break.

For many, our failure to change behavior only leads to complacency and frustration over time. In order to disconnect from these negative cycles and to create lasting changes in behavior we must first understand the barriers that keep us from maintaining positive changes over time.

Fully understanding and anticipating your barriers and blocks to behavior change is the first step to creating the healthy life you want to live. While everyone has unique barriers to their own change, there are some common strategies we can implement that will ensure we proactively and intentionally break through barriers that are holding us back.

Address procrastination

Many times the biggest blocks to our change is procrastination. It’s not that we don’t have very real intentions to change or that we don’t even know the steps that would be involved in making the change, it’s simply that we avoid starting.

Think about this process in your own life. How many of us believe we should start exercising immediately? I think it’s safe to say that most people would agree that exercise clearly benefits physical and mental health and that it’s important that we all do it consistently.

Many of us even have a workout routine we would complete on our first trip to the gym, yet we never quite take the step to start.

This procrastination can be devastating to lasting behavior change, and it’s important that you figure out how to break through this barrier now.

One trick that helps many people stop procrastinating is to focus on the timing of when we decide to start.

Change always feels more natural and manageable when it is congruent with the narrative we are building about our life.

For instance, change seems more manageable and exciting around New Year’s Day doesn’t it?

That’s because the new year feels like a new chapter, and that is how we organize our life.

We tell ourselves a story about who we are and we see our life in stages and seasons.

When I was in high school, I saw myself differently than I did when I was a college student.

After college and in graduate school I began to think of myself as a professional and then a business owner.

These different stages of my life encouraged me to make changes that were consistent with my new identity.

As we organize these different chapters of our life, the reset associated with a new beginning often motivates us to change.

When you begin to plan out the changes you want to make, look for the built-in resets that you can easily identify as a result of the start of a different stage or chapter.

Start working out on a Monday because it’s the beginning of the week, rather than on a Thursday or a Friday.

Look for holidays that you can use as a reset that might indicate the beginning of a new season.

For instance, Memorial Day is near the beginning of summer; it might be a great time to start eating healthier or reworking your résumé. Labor Day is the beginning of fall for many people, and it might be a great reset that would allow you to set new goals for your business.

Don’t worry if you can’t find an impending holiday to plan your life around, it’s more about the meaning we attach to any given day we are going to use as a reset to jumpstart our change process.

We can actually just label days and create meaning around days that will allow us more motivation for change.

Try to use the first or last day of the month as motivation to start something new.

Is Sept. 22 just a Wednesday, or was it the first day of fall?

That’s an example of just how easy it is to use certain days as a reset for change.

The meaning you assign to any start date is either going to encourage or discourage you to actually follow through with the change.

Harness the power of your own laziness

Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania have developed the clever idea of harnessing the power of laziness to help people begin and follow through with a change process.

This strategy follows a fairly simple logic: as humans we want to be comfortable and avoid negative emotions like boredom, stress and pain.

In fact, most people avoid spending any extra effort and will instead prefer what the researchers called “default options.”

Default options are what we end up with if we do absolutely nothing.

The default option on my iPhone is the Safari web browser.

My tendency, and the tendency of most people that use iPhones, is to use Safari as their web browser.

Now let’s be clear, I do not use Safari because it’s the best option. No, no, no, that would mean I was actually being intentional.

I use Safari because it’s easy, it happens automatically and I don’t have to expend any extra effort.

Basically, I’m avoiding the added stress and drama of taking five minutes to pick the web browser that best fits my needs.

I know, it's strange, but I challenge you to think about your life and how often you use the default option to make decisions about your behavior.

How amazing would it be if Chick-fil-A decided to set the default option of a Chick-fil-A sandwich to include the fruit cup rather than the waffle fries.

Is it fair to say, as a group, we’re just too lazy to look beyond the default options and be intentional about the choices we make every day?

If we’re going to be proactive and intentional about making changes in our life, we can start by setting healthy defaults.

What website does your browser open up to automatically, a social media site or a news organization?

If one of your behavior-change goals includes being more informed about current events, make sure your default setting is consistent with your goals.

What is your default drink at dinner, a glass of wine or water?

If you want to make sure you drink less alcohol, make sure that your default beverage at dinner is water.

In short, we can leverage our own laziness to set ourselves up for success with behavior change.

Change within the context of relationships

It should come as no surprise that we all need healthy relationships in order to maintain our change over time.

Relationships are vitally important for a couple different reasons.

For starters, other people can provide much-needed accountability for us as we attempt to make and sustain changes.

The most basic behavioral principles demonstrate that the more a behavior costs us relationally, financially or physically, the less likely the behavior is to happen.

That’s why people stuck in addiction often wait until the cost of the addiction has become so severe that they can no longer persist in it.

We call that rock-bottom in the addictions treatment industry.

Rock-bottom often happens for most of us when the cost of the behavior has interpersonal consequences that outweigh the benefits of the behavior.

We need people in our life that are going to be willing to tell us the truth and who will express concern when we do not follow through with our stated goals for behavior change.

If you want to make positive changes that stick, find truth tellers that won’t hesitate to tell you the things you don’t want to hear.

Another reason relationships are so essential for getting unstuck is based on the principle of modeling.

Many times we only know what we’re capable of when we look around and see other people who are living the kind of life we want to live.

At the end of the day the most life-giving relationships that we can be a part of are the ones that inspire us to actually live in our calling.

That’s why people who are serious about change find groups of people that are living the change that they would like to see.

Think in terms of the alcoholic who is inspired by his AA sponsor who has spent 20 years sober or the business owner who connects with a mentor who inspires him to grow his business.

If you’re ready to get unstuck in your life, surround yourself with people who inspire you. Spend time around them and model their behavior.

Now that we've gathered some workable actions to create and maintain change in our own lives, let's help our friends above, John and Julia, by applying the strategies we just learned.

John may not show signs of procrastination or laziness, but he is absolutely leaning into his default options in his relationship with his wife and unable to take the step into healthy communication with her.

Since he is having difficulty "in the moment," perhaps he can utilize his wife's strengths in their relationship to hold him accountable when these issues arise.

For his homework, we decided that he needs to have an open and honest conversation with his wife about how his default options are to go to the research and data points, and he needs her support by holding him accountable if he back steps into his suggestion offering as a strategy to resolve an issue in their lives.

This opens up a line of communication surrounding his barriers and reminding his wife that while his heart is in the right place, his mind goes into default mode, and the hope is that they are going to help each other make changes within the context of their relationship.

For our friend Julia, who is a habitual marijuana smoker, we need to address all three strategies as well.

Julia has made the commitment to stop smoking, but she can't seem to find the desire to begin the process, is stuck in an emotional wheel navigated by laziness, and doesn't have a huge support system in her life rooting for her to take a step toward her goal to leave the marijuana behind.

We decided for Julia to pick any day of the week and attach meaning to it allowing her to begin her journey of not smoking.

Julia picked the following Monday and stated it was the beginning of her journey to Oz.

Next, she has this habit known to most as "wake and bake" as a default, so she decided she was going to alter it some by waking up and actually baking cookies, muffins or cupcakes instead.

The last item we checked off of her list in our session was finding a support group to attend, so she would be surrounded by other supportive people and find at least one person who she admired and could model her behavior after.

Change is hard and it can be messy and uncomfortable, but with the right tools and support it is not impossible.

Dr. Mike Ronsisvalle is a Licensed Psychologist and the President of LiveWell Behavioral Health, a psychological services agency that provides counseling to clients of all ages and addictions treatment to adolescents and adults. You can find him on the web at www.LiveWellbehavioralhealth.com and www.LiveWell-Coaching.com, or call 321-259-1662.

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Social groups exert strong influence—people motivated to change often seek communities exemplifying their goals.

Support systems and default options (habits) can shape ongoing behavior, and leveraging group dynamics or default settings can ease transitions.

**Barriers to Change**: Even when committed to a behavior change (e.g., quitting smoking), individuals may remain stuck without motivation, facing emotional inertia and lacking a solid support network.

Change is characterized as both hard and uncomfortable but achievable with the right psychological and social tools.

**External Factors and Organizations**: Economic and organizational trends (e.g., stock market cycles for companies like Clorox) can experience swift booms and busts, affected by growth, public sentiment, and external events.

Title:

Content: Clorox Can Teach Investors A Lot About Booms, Busts, Story Stocks, And Overvaluation

Apr. 20, 2022 9:50 PM ETThe Clorox Company (CLX)2 Comments1 Like

Summary

  • Clorox has been extremely overvalued for the past two or three years.
  • Heading into the 2020 pandemic, investors seeking yield and earnings stability bought the stock. They were soon followed by investors who liked Clorox's pandemic story.
  • But just like nearly all other overvalued story stocks, Clorox stock has been heading lower recently.
  • Investors can learn a lot about Booms, Busts, and Story Stocks by examining Clorox's recent history.
  • Even after the stock's recent sell-off, it remains unattractive at today's price.
  • I do much more than just articles at The Cyclical Investor’s Club: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Learn More »

Introduction

I always like to begin my articles by reviewing any past coverage I've written about a stock so we can see how my previous expectations have turned out. I've only written one previous article on Clorox (NYSE:CLX), which came out right at the very beginning of the COVID pandemic on February 14th, 2020. It was titled "Clorox: A 10-Year Full-Cycle Analysis". I suggested in that article investors sell Clorox because its high valuation would likely produce poor medium and long-term returns. Since then, here is how the stock has performed compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY):

What is interesting here is that Clorox initially had a huge bump from the pandemic. With what was otherwise a pretty boring stock, the price jumped about +45% from the publication of my article until the end of July 2020. During this period when everyone was focused on keeping surfaces clean and disinfected, Clorox became what I call a "story stock". For most investors during this time, the Clorox thesis amounted to "People will be cleaning more, and therefore they will be buying more cleaning products. That makes Clorox a buy." In credit to some of the contributors here at Seeking Alpha, there were several articles during this time that shared my view that Clorox was a "sell" during this COVID-story bubble period. Anyone who was investing in this stock for the medium-term for longer and not simply making short-term trades, hopefully, learned a valuable lesson about narratives and investing. And that lesson is that once we move beyond the short-term, narratives don't mean nearly as much as numbers. Narratives are unpredictable, and most of the time, they follow the stock price rather than lead it. Longer-term numbers from earnings and cash flows, over time, will predict with some accuracy where stock prices typically go, especially at the extremes when a stock is dramatically overvalued or undervalued.

For this reason, I try to avoid narratives in my articles as much as I can, and always make the foundation of my articles rooted in numbers rather than narratives.

The most dangerous narratives are the true ones

It's important to point out that the story surrounding Clorox's increased sales due to COVID were basically true.

CLX's EPS grew 16% in 2020 during the pandemic. Other than 2018, which was a year with big corporate tax cuts which boosted earnings growth that year, 2020 was the fastest CLX's earnings had grown since 2005. That 16% growth rate was about 4x what I estimated CLX's growth rate at leading into the pandemic. So, this was a major boost to earnings growth just like the story said it was.

The problem was that when CLX was trading at a P/E over 30, that assumes 16% earnings growth will basically last a decade or more. Not only was that unlikely to be how this played out, but the reverse was more likely to be true because a lot of CLX's sales were likely pulled forward from the future into 2020 and 2021. This creates a situation where not only was CLX's earnings unlikely to continue growing at 16% for a decade (which is what it would take to justify a 30 P/E ratio), but they were likely to shrink because overall demand, post pandemic, would shrink.

This is a dynamic I call "boom/bust", and I have written several articles about it this year, including on companies as big as Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG). The key difference with Clorox is that, while most of these other businesses likely won't see the bust until 2023, CLX is already experiencing it. (Additionally, while CLX's boom/bust was caused directly by the pandemic, the others are mostly driven by stimulus given out during the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself. So, while the pandemic is mostly over in the US, the stimulus only recently stopped and is still circulating in the economy.) For this reason, I think CLX is a good stock to study when it comes to the basic dynamics surrounding "boom/bust" patterns.

Booms and busts can be distinguished from what I consider to be "normal" cyclicals because booms and busts are typically caused by one-time (or very rare) factors that happen to come together at a particular time and place. Because these occurrences are rare and somewhat unpredictable ahead of time, they don't really form what I would consider a predictable "cycle". What this means is that past history doesn't serve as a particularly good guide for booms and busts, and we have to rely on logic and reasoning instead.

Fortunately, when it came to Clorox, it was already overvalued before the pandemic, so it was an incredibly easy stock to avoid buying for medium and long-term investors. But there are other stocks that are trading at more attractive valuations which are much more tempting to value investors today. My hope is that Clorox can serve as an example of what might lie in the future for some of the "stimulus boom/bust" stocks that haven't fully busted yet.

But before I get into that commentary, I'm going to go ahead and run my basic full-cycle analysis on CLX in order to see where its valuation stands given the price has dropped off its highs quite a bit. CLX has historically been a very stable earnings growing stock, so I will share the valuation technique I use for less-cyclical stocks.

Market Sentiment Return Expectations

In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2023's estimates.

I have chosen to use the earnings estimates from 2023 because they are more generous than 2022's earnings. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if their earnings normalize a little quicker than analysts expect. A lot depends on whether we have a recession next year or not.

Clorox's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been 24.41 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2023's forward earnings estimates of $5.63 (also circled in gold), Clorox has a current P/E of 25.78. If that 25.78 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 24.41 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, Clorox's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of about -0.55%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the losses could be quicker and steeper.

Business Earnings Expectations

We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, I will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.

There are two main components of this: The first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +3.88%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $3.88 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.

The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).

Clorox has bought back about 6% of the shares outstanding over this period so I will back those out for my earnings growth estimates. Additionally, I will account for their recent -45% earnings decline the past couple of years, but I will also assume +39% earnings growth for 2023. Taking this all into account, my earnings growth expectation for Clorox is about +2.51%. (Prepandemic it was a little over +4%, so this is pretty much in line with what it has been since 2007 or so.)

Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. (In Clorox's case, all these will be post-2023 because I pulled those expectations forward.) The way I think about this is, if I bought Clorox's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $3.88 plus +2.51% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +2.51% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $144.63 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a +3.76% 10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.

10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate

Potential future returns can come from two main places: Market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for Clorox, it will produce a -0.55% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +3.76% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of +3.21% at today's price.

My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: Above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This makes Clorox a "Sell" at today's prices. It should be noted that by using 2023's expected earnings, I was actually being pretty generous with my assumptions for Clorox (but I do think it was reasonable to do so in this situation). Even if I had assumed a 4% long-term earnings growth rate, Clorox still would have been right at the sell threshold.

Conclusion

My view of Clorox stock is pretty simple at this point. I view it as a simple bond proxy that over the longer term will likely be able to pass most inflation onto their customers (even though they might be having some difficulty doing that at this very moment in time). For that reason, investors should probably think of this stock as an inflation-protected bond and simply look at the dividend yield and ask themselves whether that is an adequate yield or not. The dividend growth rate has been about 6% in recent years, and they have some room to continue raising it for a while assuming earnings recover over the next couple of years.

Personally, for stocks that have very low earnings growth rates like Clorox, I would want to see a dividend yield in the 7-8% range before I would get interested in buying the stock. In order for that to happen, the price would need to drop about -50% from here. While I suppose it could happen during a recession, especially since CLX's earnings have dropped a lot this year, there are so many yield-hungry investors in the market right now that I probably won't get the chance to buy this stock at the price I would like. Nevertheless, I don't think the forward long-term returns, even after the stock's recent sell-off, are attractive enough to hold onto this stock. There are simply better opportunities in the market, and if bond yields continue to rise, Clorox stock will become less and less attractive over the near term unless investors view it as a temporary safe haven during a recession.

If you have found my strategies interesting, useful, or profitable, consider supporting my continued research by joining the Cyclical Investor's Club. It's only $30/month, and it's where I share my latest research and exclusive small-and-midcap ideas. Two-week trials are free.

This article was written by

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One-of-kind research using historical cycles to identify tops and bottoms

My analysis focuses on the cyclical nature of individual companies and of markets in general. I've developed a unique approach to estimating the fair value of cyclical stocks, and that approach allows me to more accurately buy near the bottom of the cycle.

My academic background is in political science and I hold a Bachelor's Degree and a Master's Degree in political theory from Iowa State University. I was awarded a Graduate Research Excellence Award in 2015 for my research on conservatism.

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Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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These cycles reinforce that outcomes are not static and predictions/practices must be periodically re-evaluated against real-world data.

However, this extract included little direct information on MLM trends or examples, and mainly offered general behavioral science themes applicable to MLM dynamics.


Here are the summarized nuggets of information about Lionel Messi, drawn from the provided extracts:

- **Early Life and Education:** Lionel Messi was born in Rosario, Argentina.

He did not attend university, instead dedicating himself to soccer from a young age, joining Newell’s Old Boys youth team at six.

- **Career Path:** Messi made his first-team debut for FC Barcelona at age 17 in 2004 and quickly became integral to the club’s success.

He achieved legendary status through his skills, records, and numerous achievements.

- **Playing Style and Influence:** Messi is celebrated worldwide for his unique playing style—marked by superb dribbling, quick acceleration, vision, and goal-scoring.

Even in new environments, such as Inter Miami in the U.S., his effect on the game is profound, making him difficult for defenders to stop and inspiring countless fans.

- **Struggles and Triumphs:** Messi faced criticism, especially regarding Argentina’s national team, notably after losing Copa America finals and temporarily retiring from international football in 2016.

However, his resilience and continued dedication led to later success, including finally winning major international trophies with Argentina.

- **Emotional Impact and Legacy:** Throughout his career, Messi has inspired both fans and teammates.

His emotional journey includes times of isolation and immense support, with Argentina celebrating his eventual achievements.

His connection with supporters, especially after winning international honors, is stronger than ever.

- **Comparisons and Place in Football History:** While some experts argue that legends like Pelé and Diego Maradona belong in their own category, Messi's sustained excellence, skillset, and record-breaking contributions firmly secure his place among the greatest footballers of all time.

Here are the summarized nuggets of information about Lionel Messi, drawn from the provided extracts:

- **Early Life and Education:** Lionel Messi was born in Rosario, Argentina.

Title:

Content: Did Lionel Messi Go To College?

News

Did Lionel Messi Go To College?

In the world of professional sports, it is not uncommon for athletes to forgo higher education in pursuit of their dreams. Lionel Messi, widely regarded as one of the greatest footballers of all time, is no exception. Born and raised in Rosario, Argentina, Messi’s journey to stardom began at a young age, and his dedication to the sport led him down a different path than that of a traditional college education.

Early Life and Football Career
Messi’s passion for football was evident from a young age. At just six years old, he joined the youth team of his local club, Newell’s Old Boys. His exceptional skills quickly caught the attention of scouts, and at the age of 13, he moved to Barcelona, Spain, to join the prestigious La Masia academy. It was here that Messi’s talent flourished, and he rapidly rose through the ranks to become a key player for FC Barcelona.

Education and College
While Messi’s focus was primarily on his football career, he did receive a basic education during his time in Argentina. Like many young athletes, his commitment to training and matches left little time for formal education. However, it is important to note that in Argentina, primary and secondary education is compulsory, ensuring that Messi received a foundational education.

FAQ

1. Did Lionel Messi attend university?
No, Messi did not attend university. His dedication to football led him to pursue a professional career at a young age.

2. Did Messi complete high school?
While Messi did not complete high school in the traditional sense, he did receive a basic education in Argentina, as primary and secondary education is compulsory.

3. Does Messi regret not going to college?
There is no public information to suggest that Messi regrets not pursuing a college education. His incredible success in football speaks for itself.

In conclusion, Lionel Messi did not attend college. His exceptional talent and early dedication to football propelled him to the heights of the sport, leaving little room for a traditional college education. Nevertheless, Messi’s achievements on the field continue to inspire millions around the world, proving that success can be achieved through passion, hard work, and talent.

He did not attend university, instead dedicating himself to soccer from a young age, joining Newell’s Old Boys youth team at six.

- **Career Path:** Messi made his first-team debut for FC Barcelona at age 17 in 2004 and quickly became integral to the club’s success.

Title:

Content: What Was Lionel Messi Known For?

News

What Was Lionel Messi Known For?

Lionel Messi, the Argentine football superstar, is widely regarded as one of the greatest players in the history of the sport. Known for his exceptional skills, agility, and goal-scoring ability, Messi has left an indelible mark on the world of football. From his early days at FC Barcelona to his international success with the Argentine national team, Messi’s career has been nothing short of extraordinary.

Early Career and Rise to Prominence
Born on June 24, 1987, in Rosario, Argentina, Messi showed immense talent from a young age. He joined the Barcelona youth academy, La Masia, at the age of 13, where he honed his skills and developed his unique playing style. Messi made his first-team debut for Barcelona in 2004, at the age of 17, and quickly became a key player for the club.

Playing Style and Skills
Messi is known for his exceptional dribbling ability, close ball control, and lightning-fast speed. His low center of gravity allows him to change direction quickly, leaving defenders in his wake. His vision and passing accuracy are also remarkable, enabling him to create scoring opportunities for his teammates. However, it is his goal-scoring prowess that truly sets him apart. Messi has an incredible ability to find the back of the net, often with stunning precision and creativity.

Records and Achievements
Throughout his career, Messi has shattered numerous records and achieved countless milestones. He has won numerous individual awards, including the prestigious FIFA Ballon d’Or, which he has claimed a record-breaking seven times. Messi has also led Barcelona to numerous domestic and international titles, including ten La Liga titles and four UEFA Champions League titles.

FAQ

Q: What is Messi’s playing position?
A: Messi primarily plays as a forward or attacking midfielder, but his versatility allows him to excel in various positions on the field.

Q: Has Messi ever won the FIFA World Cup?
A: Despite his immense success at the club level, Messi has yet to win the FIFA World Cup with the Argentine national team. However, he has led Argentina to the finals in 2014 and has won several other international tournaments, including the Copa America.

Q: How many goals has Messi scored in his career?
A: As of 2021, Messi has scored over 700 goals in official matches for both club and country.

In conclusion, Lionel Messi is known for his exceptional skills, agility, and goal-scoring ability. His playing style, records, and achievements have solidified his status as one of the greatest footballers of all time. Whether it is his mesmerizing dribbles or his ability to find the back of the net, Messi’s impact on the sport will be remembered for generations to come.

He achieved legendary status through his skills, records, and numerous achievements.

- **Playing Style and Influence:** Messi is celebrated worldwide for his unique playing style—marked by superb dribbling, quick acceleration, vision, and goal-scoring.

Even in new environments, such as Inter Miami in the U.S., his effect on the game is profound, making him difficult for defenders to stop and inspiring countless fans.

Title:

Content: Lionel Messi, the iconic figure in the world of soccer, has embarked on a new chapter in his illustrious career with Inter Miami in the United States. Beyond his unparalleled prowess on the football pitch, Messi has revealed a newfound interest in American football, shedding light on his diverse sporting passions.

Amidst his tenure at Inter Miami, Messi has captivated the soccer world and garnered attention from various sports enthusiasts. In a recent interview with the Big Time Podcast, Messi disclosed his admiration for various sports, including tennis, padel, basketball, and American football. Expressing his eagerness to learn more about the intricacies of the sport, Messi's embrace of American football underscores his open-mindedness and curiosity beyond his domain of expertise.

Messi's revelation about his interest in American football adds another layer to his multifaceted persona, highlighting his willingness to explore new horizons beyond soccer. As he immerses himself in the intricacies of the sport, Messi's presence at Inter Miami not only elevates the profile of the MLS but also fosters cross-sporting interactions and collaborations.

In his own words, during the Big Time Podcast interview, Messi shared, “Tennis, padel, basketball, and American football. I'm learning a lot about American football, getting to know it better, and loving it.” This statement underscores his genuine enthusiasm for delving into new sporting ventures and his willingness to expand his horizons.

Indeed, Messi's influence transcends the boundaries of soccer, attracting luminaries from other sporting disciplines to Inter Miami matches. Tennis stars Stefanos Tsitsipas and Paula Badosa were among the notable personalities who received personalized Messi shirts during their visits to the club. Similarly, NFL players Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase donned FC Cincinnati shirts to support Messi during his inaugural season in the MLS.

Moreover, Messi's arrival in the United States has ignited unprecedented interest in Inter Miami games, with viewership numbers surpassing the million mark. Such staggering figures place Inter Miami alongside the likes of the NFL and college football in viewership, underscoring Messi's transcendent appeal and global impact.

While Messi recuperates from injury, his imminent return to action for Inter Miami's Champions Cup clash against Monterrey on April 3 is eagerly anticipated. As he continues to mesmerize audiences both on and off the field, Messi's journey with Inter Miami promises to be a captivating fusion of sporting excellence and cultural exchange.

Watch Messi live. Every club, every match, including playoffs. Subscribe now to MLS Season Pass!

- **Struggles and Triumphs:** Messi faced criticism, especially regarding Argentina’s national team, notably after losing Copa America finals and temporarily retiring from international football in 2016.

Title:

Content: The Roar

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This is Messi's chance to win Argentina fans over

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Has there been anyone better who has laced up the boots and kicked a football like Lionel Messi in the history of the game?

There are many greats who are part of that discussion, but there is plenty of time to debate that.

What is certain though is that Messi will always be involved in the conversation, due to the incredible legacy he will eventually leave behind.

Developing through the ranks at Barcelona, the 35-year-old has contributed towards 35 trophies for the Spanish giants and created jaw-dropping performances that were not only impressive but also consistent.

However, the same legacy cannot be translated to his playing time so far with Argentina.

The boy who grew up in Rosario was always touted as the next big thing to happen to Argentinian football since Diego Maradona who fans consider a legend and a god.

Maradona was the catalyst in carrying his nation to their only two World Cup triumphs in 1978 and 1986 with the elegance and touch that players can only dream about.

(Photo by Etsuo Hara/Getty Images)

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What captured Argentinian hearts the most though was his dedication, leadership, and passion that Maradona always demonstrated when wearing the blue and white stripes.

Who can ever forget his stare-down of the England squad while lining up for the national anthems at the 86’ World Cup quarter-final?

The anger and resentment were due to the Falklands War four years earlier between the two countries which tragically resulted in the death of 650 Argentine military personnel.

As far as diehard passion and devotion go for the game of football, it is difficult to look past supporters of Argentina who live and breathe it as a religion and remember moments such as that from Maradona.

Messi, on the other hand, has often been criticised for lacking those sorts of leadership qualities on the pitch while also being accused by some of not showing full commitment and effort to Argentina compared to club football.

The humiliating 3-0 defeat to Croatia at the 2018 World Cup is an example highlighting Messi strutting along the field and not seeming to take responsibility and push his team.

Were the signs there right from the beginning?

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Messi was sensationally sent off on his international debut, which paved the way for a poor beginning to his chapter.

In his first four finals for Argentina, he managed to lose all four, including three in the Copa America and one World Cup final.

“He is a loser. He doesn’t have the balls.”

“He is lazy. He is a lie.”

Those are just a couple of comments from supporters making their feelings truly known that they were nowhere near satisfied with his performances.

Especially the 2014 World Cup final against Germany, where he had the golden opportunity to carry his nation on his shoulders just like Maradona did all those years ago to reach the pinnacle of the sport.

A mission failed miserably in taking the game by the scruff of the neck.

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Despite winning the award for player of the tournament, no one in Argentina was celebrating it.

In saying that, he doesn’t deserve a lot of the abuse and negative comments that have been directed toward him for so many years.

The biggest problem is that Messi has produced ridiculous moments of magic so consistently that the expectations placed on his shoulders are not so feasible.

It is part of the reason why he called time on his international career back in 2016 when he lost the Copa America final to Chile.

Simply put, the Argentine squads assembled in years gone past with Messi in it have not been good enough as a collective, but rather a team plugged with talented individuals supported by inept coaches and federations.

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There is no doubt that Messi had the support crew around him to achieve what he did at Barca, but that same environment was not able to be implemented for Argentina.

(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

It wasn’t his fault that Gonzalo Higuain missed golden chances or that the rest of the squad failed to convert from the spot in penalty shootouts.

What’s different to this current squad competing in Qatar in comparison to previous sides?

This is still a group that has talent all over the pitch, but the big difference is the attractive football they are playing which is due to being connected more as a unified squad.

Angel Di Maria, Paulo Dybala, Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez, and Rodrigo De Paul along with Messi provide the spark up front that will make any opponent shake with fear.

Argentina comfortably qualified from South America and are currently on an unbelievable 36-match unbeaten streak.

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Last year, they unexpectedly defeated Brazil in their own backyard to win the Copa America and hand Messi his first international trophy, ending a 28-year silverware drought for the country.

The defensive aspect is still a concern with the lack of pace, but there is a newfound grit about Argentina that can propel them to glory this time around.

The conditions in Qatar will provide an advantage for the two-time world champions, but it will ultimately be Lionel Messi who will have the final say in determining whether he can finally call himself a world champion.

In doing so, those passionate and emotional Argentine supporters will turn their hatred into love for their chosen one.

46 million Argentinians will be praying endlessly that Messi can end his international career in the best way possible.

This is his time.

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However, his resilience and continued dedication led to later success, including finally winning major international trophies with Argentina.

Title:

Content: The evolution of Argentina, Messi and Scaloni: From pariahs to heroes

Located in the Buenos Aires Ecological Reserve in Puerto Madero, Paseo de la Gloria (Walk of Glory) is a tourist attraction that was created in Argentina’s capital ahead of hosting the 2018 Youth Olympic Games.

Visitors and locals walk the airy promenade and pay homage to the country’s most accomplished sportsmen and women: heroes of tennis, field hockey, basketball, golf, boxing and horse racing are enshrined in bronze and immortalized, just a stone’s throw from the Rio de la Plata.

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Among the most recognizable statues are those of former NBA great Emanuel Ginobili and tennis icon Gabriela Sabatini. But the most popular statue is that of Lionel Messi.

Created by Argentine sculptor Carlos Benavidez, it captures Messi’s signature running style — the moment when he bursts past an opponent on the dribble.

It was erected in 2016 shortly after the now 35-year-old retired temporarily from Argentina’s national team. A defeat to Germany in the 2014 World Cup final was followed by two consecutive Copa America final losses to Chile in 2015 and 2016.

Both the defeats by Chile were agonising penalty shootouts, including Messi sailing his penalty over the bar at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium in the 2016 match. Immediately after that game, Messi shocked the world when he announced his retirement from international football.

“It’s incredible, really. It just won’t happen for us,” a downtrodden Messi told reporters from the mixed zone. “Apparently this is how it’s going to be. Today it happened to us again, and again in penalties.”

Asked what was going through his head and whether it was too early to think about CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifiers for Russia 2018, Messi muttered: “I was thinking about this in the dressing room. That’s it. The national team is over for me. It’s been four finals. Unfortunately, it wasn’t meant to be for me. I couldn’t do it. That’s it.”

Messi had already won five Ballon d’Ors and eight La Liga titles with Barcelona. He had lifted four Champions League trophies and had enormous success in Europe. For over a decade, Messi has been considered the world’s best player, but success in Argentina’s famed No 10 shirt has eluded him.

He was criticized in Argentina for failing to perform for his country when it mattered most. Messi left his boyhood town of Rosario for La Masia in Barcelona at the age of 13 and became a legend in Spain, but that was later used by Argentina fans and pundits to question whether he truly embodied the rugged spirit of an Argentine footballer.

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It was that type of patriotic envy that was debated relentlessly on nightly television programs, in cafes and in the press. Barcelona’s football had finessed his game and softened his mentality, they said, and that was evidenced by the aforementioned finals losses.

Messi was revered around the world, but he had become a polarizing figure in Argentina — a “foreigner” who was crippled by the pressure of representing Argentina and a player who was burdened by the shadow of Diego Maradona.

As a result, Messi’s statue on the Walk of Glory became a frequent target for vandals. The statue’s torso was first stolen and then replaced, only to see it destroyed again in December of 2017.

A man runs past the statue of Lionel Messi after it was vandalized in 2017 (Photo: Mariano Sanchez/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Perhaps the thieves wanted a piece of Messi memorabilia for themselves. However, the symbolism that a toppled statue of Messi represented at that time could not be ignored.

Messi and his Argentina team-mates had become pariahs in their own country. Glory had slipped between their fingers far too many times to forgive.

The 2018 World Cup in Russia increased the toxicity around the Argentina national team. Drawn with Croatia, Iceland and Nigeria, they struggled to grasp manager Jorge Sampaoli’s Bielsa-inspired tactics and only narrowly advanced from the group stage.

A 1-1 draw with minnows Iceland was followed by a 3-0 thrashing by Croatia, the eventual runners up. Messi scored his only goal of the tournament against Nigeria to secure a place in the round of 16. They were promptly eliminated 4-3 by France. Sampaoli’s short stint ended less than a month later.

Reports of a rift between Sampaoli and Messi magnified the national team’s debacle in Russia. The general consensus in Argentina was that it was time to move on from a generation of players who had failed to win a title and instead incorporate new players into the national team — players who were unburdened by past failures.

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Captain Javier Mascherano, Gonzalo Higuain, Lucas Biglia, Ever Banega, Marcos Rojo, Enzo Perez, and Gabriel Mercado would not play again for Argentina.

There would also be a new manager tasked with leading Argentina at the 2019 and 2020 Copa America tournaments and the 2022 World Cup qualifiers. The list of potential successors to Sampaoli included Atletico Madrid’s Diego Simeone and former Tottenham Hotspur boss Mauricio Pochettino.

Instead, Sampaoli’s assistant Lionel Scaloni was hired as interim manager. A former Argentina defender who played at the 2006 World Cup, Scaloni coached Argentina’s Under-20 men’s side before joining Sampaoli’s staff. He had two priorities when he accepted the caretaker position.

Lionel Scaloni shortly after taking over as Argentina manager in 2018 (Photo: Marcelo Endelli via Getty Images)

The first was to add Argentina Under-17 national team coach Pablo Aimar to his staff. Aimar is a respected tactician in Argentina and a staunch defender of football that suits creative players. The former Argentina, River Plate and Valencia midfielder was also Messi’s childhood hero. After Aimar accepted the role alongside Scaloni, the two coaches picked up the phone and called Messi.

“After (the World Cup) in Russia, Pablo and I called (Messi) and told him that we would coach the team on an interim basis,” Scaloni told ESPN in September. “Messi was a team captain with Mascherano. It was best that he heard it directly from us.”

Messi’s brief retirement in 2016 still lingered in the consciousness of every Argentinian. From the outside, his commitment to the national team was in question after Argentina crashed out in Russia. And considering the coaching candidates who had been rumored to take over for Sampaoli, Scaloni’s initial appointment underwhelmed Argentina supporters and journalists.

Aimar was joined on Scaloni’s staff by former World Cup veteran defenders Roberto Ayala and Walter Samuel. Yet, their inexperience as coaches overshadowed their careers as elite European-based footballers. Supporters clamored for an evolution of the national team, but when it began in earnest, it was difficult for Argentinians to accept.

Nonetheless, there was a detail that would prove crucial to Argentina’s future success under Scaloni. It wasn’t tactical, although Scaloni would gradually fine-tune Argentina’s style of play with Messi as less of a focal point.

What allowed Messi to feel comfortable again in the Argentina shirt was the fact he and the manager shared a bond. Scaloni had never coached in Argentina before joining the national team.

After playing two seasons in Argentina with Newell’s Old Boys and Estudiantes de la Plata in the late 1990s, Scaloni left for Europe and didn’t return as a player. He played for Deportivo La Coruna, Lazio, West Ham United, Racing Santander and briefly for Atalanta. Scaloni maintains a residence in Mallorca and he was an assistant under Sampaoli at Sevilla.

Scaloni wasn’t “made in Argentina” and that was criticized by traditionalists. But that commonality with Messi has strengthened their relationship. Messi is more comfortable than he has ever been in Argentina’s blue and white, due in large part to Scaloni and the players the manager has chosen as Messi’s supporting cast.

“When we took over officially, (Messi) told us that he’d come back, that he was committed and that if we called him, he’d play,” Scaloni said. “It was very natural. He shows a love for the national team which is evident when you see him play. The will to win for him is because of what he shows us on the pitch.”

Argentina lost 2-0 to hosts Brazil in the semi-final of the 2019 Copa America. They had started the tournament poorly with a 2-0 loss to Colombia which sounded the alarms in Argentina, as Scaloni’s tactics looked like a work in progress.

The side was experienced but Scaloni incorporated younger players like Lautaro Martinez, Rodrigo De Paul, Leandro Paredes and Giovani Lo Celso. The holdovers from the 2018 World Cup team included Sergio Aguero, Angel Di Maria, Messi, Nicolas Otamendi and goalkeeper Franco Armani. Scaloni was beginning to build a core group.

He would need to impress in friendlies versus Chile, Mexico and Germany that same year. Argentina drew 0-0 and 2-2 with Chile and Germany, respectively, then routed Mexico 4-0. There was a workman-like identity to this new-look Argentina. There were persistent calls from pundits for Scaloni to be innovative with his tactics. Nevertheless, confidence and camaraderie were growing within the group.

Scaloni and the players had their sights on a chance to end the national team’s 28-year trophy drought. Argentina were set to co-host the 2020 Copa America with Colombia, which would have been a first for South American football.

That historic milestone never occurred. COVID-19 concerns in Argentina plus political unrest in Colombia forced CONMEBOL to strip the countries of hosting duties, postpone the tournament a year, and move it to Brazil.

The apprehension regarding Scaloni’s inexperience persisted as the tournament began, but the side showed a steely mentality and grew as the competition progressed. Messi was in inspired form, but new stars began to emerge.

Martinez looked the part as an elite No 9. De Paul became the axis in Argentina’s midfield with clean distribution and tireless running. Central defenders Cristian Romero and Otamendi provided a solid defensive wall in front of Aston Villa goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez, who became a hero after he saved three penalties in an emotional semi-final shootout win over Colombia.

Argentina’s dream was alive, but Brazil had looked like a juggernaut in the group stage and knockout rounds. It seemed more likely that history would repeat itself at the Maracana, the same venue where Germany defeated Argentina in the World Cup final in 2014. A fifth consecutive finals loss for Messi would further damage his reputation at the international level.

The tables turned, however, as Argentina earned a hard-fought 1-0 win that shocked the Brazilians.

Lionel Messi celebrates winning the Copa America against Brazil in 2021 (Photo: Gustavo Pagano via Getty Images)

Messi had finally won the title that he so desperately needed, and desired. An elated Messi told reporters after the match that he had dreamed of this moment, and that for years, his family had suffered each loss alongside him. The family’s summer holidays began with a melancholy mood. “This time it’ll be different,” he said.

And it was different. The streets of Buenos Aires erupted with joy. The entire country embraced Scaloni, and his previously unproven group of players, as national treasures. Argentina’s first cup win since 1993 was hailed as an improbable feat against unprecedented odds.

“We’re still not conscious of the fact that we’re champions, of what we’ve just accomplished,” Messi told reporters from the Maracana. “But I think that this match will be remembered as something historic, not only because we became South American champions, but because we beat Brazil in Brazil.”

During that celebratory moment, Messi urged his team-mates and the country to take advantage of the momentum that had been created. This was the future of the national team, Messi said, which felt like a preemptive passing of the torch. The high of winning a Copa America carried through during the South American World Cup qualifiers as they cruised undefeated towards Qatar.

The sentiment towards the national team had officially changed.

“The support from the fans makes you feel more comfortable on the pitch,” Aguero told TyC Sports from Doha days before the World Cup draw in April. “Before we won the Copa America, when I played, (fans) were virtually silent during our matches. Now it’s like a party. A player falls down and everybody starts laughing.”

Argentina’s home qualifiers had the energy of a rock concert. Messi was the front man whose skills, goals and assists delighted the thousands of singing fans. Argentina had fallen back in love with him and their national team.

After Argentina sealed their World Cup qualification on March 25 with a 3-0 win over Venezuela, the sellout crowd at Boca Juniors’ Estadio La Bombonera stayed long after the final whistle to honor the players and staff that would compete for the ultimate prize in Qatar.

Amid blaring trumpets and chanting fans, Messi spoke about the magnitude of the moment and his own transformation.

“Lately here in Argentina, this is what we expected. We wouldn’t expect anything less from the fans,” said Messi from the pitch. “It’s been this way over this period of time, the unity between the national team and our people.”

Messi continued.

“I’ve been happy here even before we won the Copa (America). We have a wonderful group and the fans continue to show how much they care about me. I’m grateful. I experience it every time I come to Argentina, and more so after winning that trophy.”

During the September FIFA window, Argentina played before screaming fans in Miami and New Jersey in wins over Honduras and Jamaica. They were friendly matches, but the energy inside both stadiums, like in Buenos Aires during World Cup qualifying, made the players feel like rock stars. “We’re so happy with the connection that we have with our fans,” said De Paul from Miami.

Argentina’s last loss was that 2019 Copa America semi-final against Brazil. They’ll begin the World Cup in Group C against Saudi Arabia riding a 36-game unbeaten streak. Scaloni went from unsung interim manager to a pop culture star in Argentina. Fans on social media created a nickname, La Scaloneta, which is best described as an unstoppable hype train that’s destined for glory.

La Scaloneta has become such a big part of Argentina’s recent sporting culture, that fans often refer to the manager by his nickname. Scaloni isn’t keen about his newfound fame, but it’s unavoidable at this point.

In November several fans spotted the manager at Buenos Aires’ Ezeiza International Airport and shouted “Scaloneta!” as they took selfies with him. A smiling Scaloni told a nearby reporter, “I’m Scaloni. I don’t like it, but there’s no turning back.”

Four years ago in Russia, Argentina’s national team was at a point of no return. Messi’s legacy was in jeopardy and winning a World Cup seemed impossible for him. Now, Argentina are among the favorites to win the World Cup in Qatar.

And after years of disappointment and destructive criticism, the team is beloved again. But even deeply rooted love can be broken. The world will soon find out if Argentina’s storybook rise will have a feelgood ending.

(Top photo: Gustavo Pagano via Getty Images)

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Felipe Cardenas is a staff writer for The Athletic who covers MLS, the Mexican National Team, media and international soccer. Follow Felipe on Twitter @FelipeCar

- **Emotional Impact and Legacy:** Throughout his career, Messi has inspired both fans and teammates.

His emotional journey includes times of isolation and immense support, with Argentina celebrating his eventual achievements.

His connection with supporters, especially after winning international honors, is stronger than ever.

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NPR podcast tells the story behind Lionel Messi's journey to his final World Cup

A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:

When soccer's World Cup kicks off, one of the sport's biggest stars will have his last chance to win a title that has so far eluded him. Lionel Messi is often spoken of as perhaps the game's greatest player ever, but he's never lifted the famous gold trophy for his country, Argentina. It is a constant source of criticism for the man nicknamed La Pulga Atomico, the atomic flea, due to his small stature and the way he buzzes past defenders. His determination to swat aside those complaints might be all the greater when you consider that the 35-year-old's identity as an Argentino has been questioned because he left the country as a teenager to begin his ascent to stardom in Spain. That's the inspiration behind the new NPR podcast La última copa - The Last Cup - which is out now, hosted by Jasmine Garsd.

All right. So, Jasmine, what made you want to make this podcast about Messi and this journey to his final World Cup?

JASMINE GARSD, BYLINE: Well, you know, like Lionel Messi, I am from Argentina, and I'm very soccer obsessed. Soccer was a part of my life growing up. And I became just really fascinated with his relationship with his home country. And even though, you know, Lionel Messi is a huge superstar, there were some themes in his personal story that I definitely identified. There were echoes of things I had heard people in other immigrant communities talk about. It was, like, this story about someone who leaves home really young, spends a lot of their life wondering what could have happened, yearning, you know, in the nostalgia, wondering if you can ever go back and then navigating that relationship when you do go back, which is very complicated.

MARTÍNEZ: Well, now, you wanted to make this podcast about Messi in both English and Spanish. Why was that important to you?

GARSD: You know, I had been thinking a lot about Lionel Messi. And I got into an Uber, and it was a Dominican driver, and he started talking to me in Espanol, and he started telling me about how he was getting older, and people back home wanted him to come back, but his life was here in New York. And as he was telling me this, I was like, whoa, I should do this story. You know, there's, like, a common element. There's a common theme. And every time I would hear this story, it would be in Espanol. And so I just - we really wanted to do it justice by telling it in both languages.

MARTÍNEZ: Now, the first three episodes are already out. So let's get a flavor from Episode 1.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

UNIDENTIFIED SPORTSCASTER #1: Lionel Messi - no, no, no. No, no, no. It's got away. It's got away.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED NPR BROADCAST)

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: The greatest achievement you can have as a footballer is winning international trophies for your country. It just is a bigger legend than winning Champions League.

GARSD: The one thing Messi has never been able to achieve is to win a World Cup for his home country, Argentina.

(SOUNDBITE OF MONTAGE)

UNIDENTIFIED SPORTSCASTER #2: He's missed it. It's been saved.

UNIDENTIFIED SPORTSCASTER #3: But there was a target area, and Messi misplaced it.

UNIDENTIFIED SPORTSCASTER #4: Messi, even now he can't get his goal.

UNIDENTIFIED SPORTSCASTER #5: And he doesn't pick up the prize he really wanted.

GARSD: For most of his career, when Leo Messi put on that Argentina soccer jersey, things got really bad really quick.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

UNIDENTIFIED SPORTSCASTER #6: He missed it.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

UNIDENTIFIED SPORTSCASTER #7: ...Lionel Messi put his shirt over his face. He's now crouched down with his head on the field.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: (Through interpreter) He was sitting on the floor, curled up in a ball, shaking, crying inconsolably.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

GARSD: Over the years, every time I would watch Messi play a big game for Argentina, I'd get really anxious, not just because I'm also from Argentina, and I hated watching our team lose; it was a personal anxiety about what I knew happened after every game. A lot of people back home would get angry at him.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #3: (Speaking Spanish).

GARSD: His critics would say that he only cared enough to play well for the European clubs, that he'd left Argentina too young, and now he was no longer Argentine.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #4: (Speaking Spanish).

GARSD: And the reason this rhetoric filled me with dread is that I too had to leave Argentina when I was a teenager, and it wasn't really by choice.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: The national crisis has seen protesters taking to the streets, angry at the government's inability to end what is now three years of recession.

(SOUNDBITE OF PROTEST)

GARSD: As happens to many immigrants, as time passed I would feel further and further away from home, and I was haunted by questions like, can I ever go back? If I do, will I be a foreigner in my own country?

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

GARSD: I know some people are going to say, Jasmine, chill out. Messi is an international superstar. He's got a great life. He's very wealthy. Don't try and make me feel bad for him. But one of the reasons I love soccer is because it's about so much more than a ball on a field with 22 players. And in this podcast, we're going to talk a lot about how soccer is a way to understand the world - class, race, immigration, colonialism.

MARTÍNEZ: That's an excerpt from Episode 1 of the new NPR podcast La última copa - The Last Cup - and host Jasmine Garsd is still with us. Now, Jasmine, Messi has been voted the best player in the world a number of times. He's rewritten soccer's history books. But Diego Maradona is a god because in 1986, he pretty much single-handedly led Argentina to World Cup glory.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

UNIDENTIFIED SPORTSCASTER #8: ...Maradona. They're appealing for offside. The ball came back off the foot of Steve Hodge. And Maradona gives Argentina the lead.

MARTÍNEZ: So, Jasmine, if Lionel Messi never lifts the cup over his head, where will he rank in (speaking Spanish) - in the hearts of your countrymen?

GARSD: (Laughter) I think he's come around to being very beloved, and people have, like, a certain kind of, like, tenderness for him because they understand what he went through. I think the Diego Maradona represents something completely different to Argentina. I mean, he's this kid from the slums who, like, was really on the outskirts of society in terms of class and race, and he overcame all kinds of challenges to become this hero. But I do think that, you know, Leo Messi has come around and that people have finally started to embrace him. Yeah?

MARTÍNEZ: But if he never wins a cup, will he be as beloved?

GARSD: Don't say that, A. Don't invoke it.

(LAUGHTER)

MARTÍNEZ: I know. I know. We'll see. His last chance is coming up. Jasmine Garsd is the host La última copa - The Last Cup - out now wherever you get your podcasts. Jasmine, thanks a lot.

GARSD: Thank you so much. This was fun. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

A Martínez
A Martínez is one of the hosts of Morning Edition and Up First. He came to NPR in 2021 and is based out of NPR West.
Jasmine Garsd
Jasmine Garsd is an Argentine-American journalist living in New York. She is currently NPR's Criminal Justice correspondent and the host of The Last Cup. She started her career as the co-host of Alt.Latino, an NPR show about Latin music. Throughout her reporting career she's focused extensively on women's issues and immigrant communities in America. She's currently writing a book of stories about women she's met throughout her travels.

- **Comparisons and Place in Football History:** While some experts argue that legends like Pelé and Diego Maradona belong in their own category, Messi's sustained excellence, skillset, and record-breaking contributions firmly secure his place among the greatest footballers of all time.