China has made significant advances in fighter jet development, with the J-10 being one of its flagship exports.

The J-10 is powered by upgraded engines such as the WS-10, with ongoing improvements to challenge advanced Western jets like the F-22 Raptor.

Chinese state media (CCTV) reports that the newer WS-15 engine features thrust vector control and a low bypass ratio for improved performance.

China continues to ramp up production rates for its more modern J-20 stealth fighter, but it also intends the J-10 to play a key export role.

At Airshow China 2021, the PLA Air Force highlighted its progress in indigenous fighter development and showcased aerobatics by its Bayi Aerobatics Team, which flies the J-10.

In terms of international sales, Pakistan is the only known foreign operator of the J-10, having ordered the J-10CE as part of its efforts to modernize the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).

Pakistan received its first batch of J-10CE jets in March 2022, deploying them quickly to enhance its air defense and strike capabilities.

Pakistani officials have praised the J-10CE for its maneuverability, advanced avionics, and ability to carry modern air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons.

Media commentators and aviation analysts point out that while the J-10CE offers modern features, it fills a gap for countries unable to procure Western or Russian fighters due to political or financial constraints.

Concerns about long-term reliability and after-sales support have been raised by some defense experts, particularly in comparison with Western aircraft.

Chinese media counters such criticism by emphasizing rapid indigenous development and technical innovation in aircraft like the J-10 and J-20.

No other confirmed international J-10 sales have been publicly reported as of mid-2024, but Chinese officials continue to market the jet globally.

Feedback from the PAF has generally been positive, with pilots citing the J-10CE's agility and sensors as assets for air combat missions.

China has made significant advances in fighter jet development, with the J-10 being one of its flagship exports.

Title:

Content: What's new

India’s AMCA ‘Stealth Fighters’ Enter Production Stage, How Does It Jet Stack-Up Against China’s J-20 Mighty Dragon?

beijingwalker

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India’s AMCA ‘Stealth Fighters’ Enter Production Stage, How Does It Jet Stack-Up Against China’s J-20 Mighty Dragon?

BySakshi Tiwari

March 21, 2022

The fifth-generation J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ is a prized possession of the Chinese PLA Air Force. With India’s prototype of AMCA going into production, will the Chinese stealth fighters have a potential challenger right across the border?

The Chengdu J-20 is a single-seat, multi-role stealth fighter that serves as a symbol of China’s growing air power as the plane has been featured prominently in military parades and air shows across the country.

Last year, the J-20 reportedly entered mass production after replacing the Russian AL-31F Turbofan engine with a domestically built WS-10. According to Chinese plans, the current WS-10C engine is further to be replaced by the latest and more advanced WS-15.

Chinese jets have traditionally been powered by Russian-made engines. China has long sought to develop its own engine and gain maximum flexibility, freeing itself from the constraints imposed by Russian engines. The successful integration of WS-15 on J-20s could be the next big breakthrough in self-sufficiency for China.

China’s next-generation turbofan engine, the WS-15, which is to dramatically boost the performance of the J-20 stealth fighter jet, has completed rigorous testing.

The WS-15 engine has undergone several tests, according to China Central Television (CCTV), after the WS-10, China’s first independently developed high performance, high thrust turbofan engine with afterburner, was installed on fighter jets such as the J-10, J-11, and J-20 since 2016.

The WS-15 has a low bypass ratio and is capable of thrust vector control, according to CCTV. It was developed for fifth-generation heavy and medium fighter jets. The J-20s were supposed to be integrated with the WS-15, but due to test failures, China decided to stick to the WS-10C.

The Chinese military now has a fleet of roughly 50 J-20s. New J-20s will be equipped with the WS-15 engine, said a report of South China Morning Post.

China has been relentlessly working to close the gap with the US Air Force and the upgrades that it is carrying out to the WS-10 engines are aimed at challenging the F-22 Raptors of the US.

This year, China will begin upgrading the J-20 engines by incorporating thrust vectoring technology to get it closer to the performance of the American F-22 Raptor, as previously reported by EurAsian Times.

File Image: J-20
The J-20 has also often been compared with another fifth-generation fighter Aircraft in the US arsenal, the F-35. China is reportedly on track to increase the production of its J-20 aircraft. This was perhaps in response to the American plan to field more than 2,000 F-35 stealth jets across its three armed services, besides Japan’s multibillion-dollar F-35 acquisition.

China had dispatched J-20s to air bases in Xinjiang following a bloody encounter with Indian forces at Galwan in eastern Ladakh in June 2020.

India’s AMCA Warplane

India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) recently announced the proverbial “metal cutting” for the first prototype of the country’s next-generation fighter jet, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft.

The maiden flight of the AMCA is scheduled for 2024-25, with serial production beginning in 2030, EurAsian Times had reported.

According to reports, the Indian Air Force has committed to 40 AMCA Mk-1 fighters, as well as at least 100 Mk-2 variants and some unmanned aircraft. Like the Chinese J-20, the stealthy AMCA is also going to have ‘super cruise’ capabilities.

With AMCA, India will enter the exclusive club of countries with fifth-generation stealth warplanes. So far, the US (F-35 and F-22 Raptors), Russia (Su-57), and China (J-20) have built such fighters.

An AMCA model displayed during Aero India 2021 (Wikimedia Commons)
Although it is unknown how the AMCA, which is yet to be manufactured, will exactly compete with the Chinese J-20,

According to Aeronautical Development Agency chief Girish Deodhare, the AMCA will be available in stealth and non-stealth variants and will be produced in two stages: an AMCA MK1 with an existing GE414 afterburning turbofan engine that powers the LCA Tejas, and an AMCA Mk2 with a new, more powerful engine that will be developed in collaboration with a foreign player.

India and France are now reportedly close to reaching an agreement for the joint development of a 125KN engine that will power AMCA. The deal is expected to be signed in the near future.

Some experts have speculated that the Indian Air Force would model its futuristic aircraft AMCA on the American F-35. If true, this could ensure greater interoperability between the Indian and US Air Forces and could come as a massive headache for the PLAAF.

AMCA will be a single-seat all-weather swing-role stealth fighter jet with twin turbofan engines. It will be capable of a wide range of operations, including air superiority, ground strikes, enemy air defense suppression, and electronic warfare. China is reportedly working on a two-seat variant of the J-20.

AMCA is designed for super-cruise capability and a reduced radar cross-section. Both these features that the AMCA strives to include are already present in the J-20 Mighty Dragon. Further, J-20 took its first flight a decade ago and was inducted in 2017 whereas the AMCA is yet to see the light of the day.

The 20-ton AMCA fighter would be able to carry one-and-a-half tons of armament in internal weapon bays in its stealth mode. The non-stealth variant would carry weapons, targeting and observation pods, as well as fuel tanks on external pylons under the wings and fuselage.

Further, like the indigenous LCA Tejas that wields Python missiles, Astra BVRAAM, Vympel R-77, and R-73 air-to-air missiles, the Kh-59ME TV guided stand-off missile and the Kh-59MK laser-guided stand-off missiles, the AMCA could be integrated with similar weapons. Just as India sought HAMMER missiles for LCA, advanced missiles could also be imported for the AMCA.

Indian media reported that the AMCA could be equipped with Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs) just as China’s J-20 is believed to get the DEWs, as previously revealed by a Global Times report.

The AMCA’s avionics suite will comprise modern radars and electronic warfare capabilities with “sixth-generation characteristics.” The plane will have a very low radar cross-section for better stealth, as well as AI-based technologies and an upgraded cockpit display with a touch screen interface.

All these specifications are expected to put the aircraft on par with the J-20. According to reports, the AMCA will also incorporate thrust-vectoring engines. The J-20 is on course to upgrade its WS-10 engines with thrust vectoring technology while the WS-15 already possesses this technology aimed at achieving better maneuverability.

Both the Chinese J-20 and Indian AMCA have air superiority as their primary objectives. While the Chinese Air Force developed its fifth-generation fighter years ago, the addition of a similar aircraft to IAF’s arsenal could create a balance of power between the two adversaries that are locked in a prolonged border standoff.

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Its a long long way from production stage. Some bits are being assembled but that does not mean its entered production.
It will be some years before it flies

baqai

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i don't understand how can they jump from one project to another without finishing the first one?

i mean LCA is still not finished, the aircraft has not been inducted in the Airforce, not seen any combat, not seen any real life flying yet it is up for sale.

Reminds me of our politicians ... project hu na hu inauguration karwa du apnay naam ki

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i don't understand how can they jump from one project to another without finishing the first one?

i mean LCA is still not finished, the aircraft has not been inducted in the Airforce, not seen any combat, not seen any real life flying yet it is up for sale.

Reminds me of our politicians ... project hu na hu inauguration karwa du apnay naam ki

Have you thought of the possibility that they have different teams for different projects?

Moreover, for the AMCA and the multi-role helicopter projects, the majority of the ownership is expected to be owned by a consortium of private sector companies with HAL being the minority stake holder. There is a huge difference in the working cultures of private and public sector companies in India.

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Its a long long way from production stage. Some bits are being assembled but that does not mean its entered production.
It will be some years before it flies

Yup, that is just a tiny part production, similar like KF21/IFX program there are some parts being produced in early 2019 despite detail design completion was in September 2019 ( for single seat variant), KF 21 roll out is in 2021 April.

So if we compare AMCA with KF21/IFX program, so AMCA prototype roll out will likely be in 2024 and test flight is in 2025 with assumption the development goes smoothly from now until the flight test.

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What has China said about its J-10C Fighter?

It is the most competitive fighter jet in the international arms market in recent years.

What has Taiwanese meida said about China's J-10 Fighter?

Substantial improvements have been made on it.

An advanced export model of J-10 Fighter

Which countries' airforces are the purchasers of China's J-10 FIghter?

The J-10 is powered by upgraded engines such as the WS-10, with ongoing improvements to challenge advanced Western jets like the F-22 Raptor.

What has Taiwanese meida said about China's J-10 Fighter?

Substantial improvements have been made on it.

Chinese state media (CCTV) reports that the newer WS-15 engine features thrust vector control and a low bypass ratio for improved performance.

China continues to ramp up production rates for its more modern J-20 stealth fighter, but it also intends the J-10 to play a key export role.

An advanced export model of J-10 Fighter

At Airshow China 2021, the PLA Air Force highlighted its progress in indigenous fighter development and showcased aerobatics by its Bayi Aerobatics Team, which flies the J-10.

Title:

Content: PLA Air force's development briefed at Airshow China 2021

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Wang Xinjuan
Time
2021-09-30 18:45:35
WZ-8 drone is displayed at the Airshow China 2021. (Photo/Xinhua)

By Li Jincheng and Li Jianwen

ZHUHAI, Sept. 30 -- The Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) held a press conference on September 29 during the 13th China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition (Airshow China) and introduced its development in recent years.

According to Lieutenant General Wang Wei, deputy commander of PLAAF, the J-20, Y-20, new type of UAVs, special-purpose combat planes, and a range of ground-based air defense weapons and new types of radars all joined the exhibition, fully demonstrating the PLAAF’s capability and confidence to defend the national air and space security, safeguard national unity, and contribute to the world peace.

Major General Wang Zhilong, deputy director of the PLAAF’s Equipment Department, said that the air force has conducted equipment development and capability enhancement targeted at plateau and maritime operations, giving a strong impetus to regular oceangoing and high-altitude training.

When introducing modified fighter jets such as the J-10C and J-16D, Wang explained that the J-10C is a multi-purpose fighter jet modified from J-10 with much improved overall combat efficiency, while the J-16D is a new type of electronic warfare aircraft (WEA) independently developed based on J-16 fighter jet. Following the guiding thought of “one generation in exploration, one generation under research, and one generation in service”, the PLAAF is developing weapons and equipment in a sustained, healthy and orderly manner toward the goal of building a world-class strategic air force that’s fully capable of protecting national sovereignty, security and development interests.

Tang Changhong, chief designer of the Y-20, explained that as a large multi-purpose transport plane integrating strategic and tactical performance, the Y-20 has accomplished all kinds of tasks since it was commissioned. It has basically met the design expectations and will continue to exert its value through constant improvements. Tang also said that Y-20 has had test flights with homemade engines and recorded exceptional performance.

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In terms of international sales, Pakistan is the only known foreign operator of the J-10, having ordered the J-10CE as part of its efforts to modernize the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).

What are the consequences of the problems that China's J-10 Fighters have?

Which countries' airforces are the purchasers of China's J-10 FIghter?

Pakistan received its first batch of J-10CE jets in March 2022, deploying them quickly to enhance its air defense and strike capabilities.

Which countries' airforces are the purchasers of China's J-10 FIghter?

Pakistani officials have praised the J-10CE for its maneuverability, advanced avionics, and ability to carry modern air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons.

An advanced export model of J-10 Fighter

What may some improvements made in China's J-10 Fighter help Pakistan Airforce?

Enable Pakistan Air Force to carry more missiles to perform combat missions

What missiles can China's J-10 FIghters carry?

Which countries' airforces are the purchasers of China's J-10 FIghter?

Media commentators and aviation analysts point out that while the J-10CE offers modern features, it fills a gap for countries unable to procure Western or Russian fighters due to political or financial constraints.

Title:

Content: Categories
News

Which is better F-35 or J 20?

Which is better F-35 or J-20?

In the world of military aviation, the competition between aircraft manufacturers is fierce. Two of the most advanced and highly debated fighter jets are the F-35, developed Lockheed Martin, and the J-20, designed China’s Chengdu Aerospace Corporation. Both aircraft boast impressive capabilities, but which one is truly superior? Let’s delve into the details and compare these cutting-edge fighters.

The F-35, also known as the Lightning II, is a fifth-generation stealth multirole fighter. It was developed to meet the requirements of the United States and its allies, offering advanced stealth capabilities, superior situational awareness, and a wide range of mission capabilities. The aircraft’s advanced technology and versatility have made it a popular choice among many nations.

On the other hand, the J-20, China’s first fifth-generation fighter, is a formidable competitor. It features advanced stealth capabilities, long-range capabilities, and a large payload capacity. The J-20 is designed to counter advanced enemy aircraft and dominate the skies, showcasing China’s growing military prowess.

FAQ:

Q: What does “stealth capabilities” mean?
A: Stealth capabilities refer to an aircraft’s ability to evade detection radar and other sensors, making it difficult for enemy forces to track and engage the aircraft.

Q: What is a fifth-generation fighter?
A: A fifth-generation fighter is a classification for advanced fighter aircraft that possess advanced stealth, sensor fusion, and network-centric warfare capabilities.

Q: Which aircraft is more widely used?
A: The F-35 is currently more widely used, with several countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, and Japan, operating the aircraft. The J-20 is primarily used the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force.

Q: Which aircraft is more technologically advanced?
A: Both aircraft are considered highly advanced, but the F-35 has been in development for a longer period and benefits from extensive research and testing. However, the J-20 incorporates some unique features and technologies, showcasing China’s advancements in military technology.

In conclusion, determining which aircraft is better, the F-35 or J-20, is a complex task. Both fighters possess impressive capabilities and have their own strengths and weaknesses. Ultimately, the superiority of one over the other depends on specific mission requirements and the preferences of the countries operating them.

An advanced export model of J-10 Fighter

Concerns about long-term reliability and after-sales support have been raised by some defense experts, particularly in comparison with Western aircraft.

Title:

Content: What's new

China’s Stealth Fighter Designer Critiques U.S. B-21 Bomber Development Pace

beijingwalker

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China’s Stealth Fighter Designer Critiques U.S. B-21 Bomber Development Pace

on 23 December 2023

In a lecture aimed at dissecting the evolution of air warfare, Yang Wei, the chief designer of China’s leading-edge J-20 stealth fighter, scrutinized the developments surrounding America’s B-21 Raider stealth bomber. Yang compared the philosophies underlying military aviation advancements in China and the United States, suggesting that China’s approach to research and development outpaces that of its American counterpart. The analysis of the U.S. B-21 Raider’s progress and the broader implications of this comparison has sparked interest and commentary throughout the defense community.

China’s military advances have been notable not only for their technological aspects but also for their speed. According to Yang Wei, this is exemplified in China’s adoption of digital engineering, which enables faster development cycles compared to American methods. Yang’s critique extended beyond a simple one-upmanship of aircraft capabilities, targeting the fundamental R&D approaches between the two powers. Moreover, his speech hinted at deeper collaboration with China’s Academy of Engineering Physics, spurring speculation about China integrating nuclear capabilities onto their fighter jets, a strategic shift from China’s historically defensive nuclear posture.

This evolving strategy aligns with China’s broader military developments. Enhancing the J-20 stealth fighter with a nuclear strike capability could offer China a more immediate nuclear deterrent while the development of the H-20 bomber continues. The J-20’s advanced stealth characteristics could potentially enable it to execute penetrating nuclear strikes with a greater probability of evading detection and defensive measures. With both nations advancing their military aviation technology, the competition underscores not just advancements in technical capabilities, but also in strategic doctrine.
In sum, the insights from Yang Wei’s talk echo a larger narrative regarding the competitive advancement in stealth technology and, importantly, highlight the strategic implications should China pair its stealth fighters with nuclear weaponry.

FAQ:
1. What was the primary focus of Yang Wei’s lecture?
Yang Wei’s lecture focused on the evolution of air warfare, specifically the development of the J-20 stealth fighter and the comparison with America’s B-21 Raider stealth bomber.

2. How does China’s approach to military aviation R&D compare with that of the United States?
According to Yang Wei, China’s employs digital engineering which leads to faster development cycles, suggesting an advantage over traditional American R&D methods.
3. What speculation has arisen from Yang Wei’s mention of collaboration with China’s Academy of Engineering Physics?
There is speculation that China may be considering integrating nuclear capabilities onto their J-20 fighter jets, indicating a possible shift in China’s nuclear strategy.
4. What strategic advantage could China gain by enhancing the J-20 with nuclear strike capability?
Such a capability could provide China with a more immediate nuclear deterrent and the ability to execute penetrating nuclear strikes that could evade detection and defensive measures.
5. Why is the competition between China and the U.S. in military aviation technology significant?
The competition is significant because it reflects not only advancements in technical capabilities but also shifts in strategic military doctrines.
Definitions:
Stealth Technology: A set of techniques used in military aviation to make aircraft less detectable by radar and other detection methods.
Digital Engineering: An approach to designing and developing systems that utilize advanced computing and simulation to create faster, more efficient development processes.
Nuclear Deterrent: A strategy wherein a country possesses nuclear weapons to discourage an enemy from taking an action, typically by the promise of retaliation.
Research and Development (R&D): The process through which new products and technologies are created and existing products are improved.

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What problems have J-10 Fighters that China exports had?

Chinese media counters such criticism by emphasizing rapid indigenous development and technical innovation in aircraft like the J-10 and J-20.

No other confirmed international J-10 sales have been publicly reported as of mid-2024, but Chinese officials continue to market the jet globally.

What are the consequences of the problems that China's J-10 Fighters have?

Feedback from the PAF has generally been positive, with pilots citing the J-10CE's agility and sensors as assets for air combat missions.

Title:

Content: What's new

Black Smoke Arises From China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter; Is Mighty Dragon Already Breaking Down?

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Black Smoke Arises From China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter; Is Mighty Dragon Already Breaking Down?https://eurasiantimes.com/category/expert-reviews/

Videos and photos of a Chinese J-20 stealth fighter jet releasing black smoke circulated the internet and caused debate among defense enthusiasts and military observers.

Some watchers claimed that the jet is overhyped and issues with poor Chinese manufacturing have begun to show.

The Generation 5 stealth fighter has been displayed to the public for the first time in this year’s ongoing Zhuhai Air Show, where the fighter landed, taxied, and parked before the public for a closer view.

Usually, the fighter only conducted flypasts and aerobatics. Now opening the ‘Mighty dragon’ for the audience indicates China’s and the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF) confidence in the aircraft.

The rare public display also led to some close-up photographs being clicked, showing its brake parachute, part of the cockpit, and the enclosed air-to-air refueling probe.

The fine workmanship and finishing of the plane’s body were also visible, baring the highly sophisticated metallurgical, forging, and precision cutting processes.

J-20 Breaking Down?

The video showed a puff of black smoke being released from a small exhaust in the bottom spine of the plane, just before the tails (vertical stabilizer) section.

Onlookers claimed it was an issue with the plane’s engines, which China has still not succeeded in fully mastering. However, putting doubts ti rest, experts said it was the Auxiliary Power Unit (APU), which also operates the same way on the American F-22 Raptor.

The APU is usually a miniature jet whose primary role is to drive the main engine to complete the start-up operation.

It also provides part of the power and high-pressure air or fluid when the main engine is turned off to save fuel and reduce its wear and tear. This cumulatively has a significant positive impact on the main engine’s life and maintainability.

“That’s a most common feature when the APU starts,” noted Chinese military aviation expert Andreas Rupprecht while speaking to EurAsian Times. Former IAF Jaguar pilot Squadron Leader Vijainder K. Thakur confirmed it was the APU.

The following video shows the F-22’s APU throwing out thick, dark greyish, and black smoke. The F-22’s APU is located just under the leading edge of the left wing, above the side internal weapons bay compartment.

nother comment from a Chinese national on a popular defense page, who was present at the air show, said that the same J-20 was merely stopping over at Zhuhai and was seen perfectly taking off later. There were no issues with the engine.

J-20 To Be Upgraded Further

While the era for the J-20 is just beginning, unlike the F-22 and the F-35, which are beset with a host of production, technical and budget constraints.

Global Times quoted the J-20’s chief designer Yang Wei, who said that future upgrades would involve Artificial Intelligence (AI) and “cognitive technologies” to make it perform optimally in a “combat system.”

Current air warfare philosophy considers systems as teams and combinations of aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), which would coordinate to carry out joint tasks.

Speaking at a press conference by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), Wei said, “Four J-20s can form a formation, which is a small system; a J-20 can team up with a J-16 and a J-10C in another small system. Recent news reports also suggested that the J-20 can fly together with drones, which is also a system.”

The report quoted Yang saying that the development strategy of the PLAAF used to be homeland defense, but now it has become air-space integration with both attack and defense capabilities.

Junk-20 @F-22Raptor @Hamartia Antidote

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Saharan dust from Africa travels across the Atlantic and reaches the Americas every year from late spring to early fall.

San Antonio residents may want to stay indoors during the incoming dust storm next week.

This dust does not stop in San Antonio and continues further into the Americas.

Saharan dust is more significant than it appears, with impacts on weather, air quality, and health.

The Texas Hill Country, known as flash flood alley, is vulnerable to both drought and catastrophic floods due to shallow soils and steady Gulf moisture and humidity.

Military personnel and others at Camp Bullis rely on the connected Trinity and Edwards Aquifers for water supply.

All of the region’s water is linked through the land’s relationship with aquifers.

A level 2 of 3 “slight risk” of severe weather has been issued for portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast, affecting cities such as Jacksonville, Memphis, New Orleans, Corpus Christi, and Orlando.

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has forecast another round of showers and storms as a strong system moves through on Friday.

Tropical Storm Watches are active along the Texas coast with heavy rain potential expected in San Antonio this week.

Rainfall in San Antonio will not be continuous but will occur in periods of heavy rain, especially on Wednesday and Thursday.

Recent heavy rain and cloud cover have helped drop temperatures into the 80s for much of South Texas.

Some nearby rivers, such as the Frio, have recorded zero flow rates in recent weeks, highlighting regional drought conditions.

Another 1 to 3 inches of rain could fall west of San Antonio and along the Rio Grande.

Past Red Cross disaster responses emphasize that future crises may be more severe and require adjusted strategies.

Urban planners and experts are increasingly working on restoring water cycles and making space for water in developed areas, as cities are part of larger watersheds.

Saharan dust from Africa travels across the Atlantic and reaches the Americas every year from late spring to early fall.

Title:

Content: Hurricane Killer? Here are some things you may not know about Saharan dust

Dust from Africa moves across the Atlantic every year from late spring to early fall

It’s a common visitor in the summer months: dust from the Saharan Desert. Hazy skies and occasional allergies are common issues caused by the dust. But did you know that this layer of dust is more interesting than it appears? Here are some things you may not know about Saharan dust:

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Millions of tons of dust are transported across the Atlantic every year
  • Nutrient-rich Saharan dust plays a crucial role in the global ecosystem
  • Dust suppresses hurricane development

WHOLE LOTTA DUST!

Every year, from late spring to early fall, trade winds transport 180 million tons of dust from the Saharan Desert across the Atlantic Ocean. Impressively, that’s as much as 4.5 million 18-wheelers full of dust!

NATURE’S BEST FRIEND

Saharan dust is often rich in nutrients like iron and phosphorus. As the dust settles over the ocean, it fertilizes algae and plankton, allowing them to grow and flourish in an otherwise barren environment. These organisms are vital sources of food for ocean life.

Similarly, as the dust settles over land, areas like the Amazon rainforest benefit from the extra nutrients.

HURRICANE EXTINGUISHER

The African dust that moves across the Atlantic Ocean is also called the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The SAL occurs in waves at the same time as Atlantic hurricane season, from June through November.

It’s known that the SAL limits hurricane development and strength. This is because tropical storms like hurricanes need deep, rich moisture from the surface to the top of the atmosphere to survive. Since the air carrying Saharan dust is usually dry, it can prevent storms from forming and suppress existing storms from growing and strengthening.

DUST’S IMPACT ON TEXAS

While a dense plume of dust sometimes causes minor allergy-like symptoms for some, the most noticeable impact is on Texas skies. A haze often forms on the horizon, giving an ordinarily clear, blue sky a milky hue during the day.

At sunrise and sunset, the horizon can appear brilliantly orange because, with dust in the air, sunlight has more particles to bounce off.

About the Author

Sarah Spivey is a San Antonio native who grew up watching KSAT. She has been a proud member of the KSAT Weather Authority Team since 2017. Sarah is a Clark High School and Texas A&M University graduate. She previously worked at KTEN News. When Sarah is not busy forecasting, she enjoys hanging out with her husband and cat, and playing music.

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San Antonio residents may want to stay indoors during the incoming dust storm next week.

Title:

Content: Breaking News
More () »

San Antonians may want to stay indoors next week. Here's why.

A noticeable change in the air will arrive to the Alamo City next week.

SAN ANTONIO — San Antonio skies could look quite different next week but not in the way we're hoping for.

As San Antonians eagerly wait for rain to break our triple-digit temperatures another common occurrence will pick-up next week known as Saharan dust.

The dust is a combination of sand and dust traveling from North Africa across the Atlantic that peaking in late June through mid-August.

Light amounts of Saharan dust have arrived to the Alamo City this past week but will become more noticeable. Therefore, if you have asthma, COPD or any other type of respiratory illness you will want to stay indoors as much as possible during this time.

Timing of Saharan dust:

Monday - Little changes will be in the forecast as heavier amounts of dust remain over the gulf coast.

Credit: KENS 5 Weather

Tuesday - A large moderate level of Saharan dust will move into South Texas and San Antonio by late afternoon. San Antonians may notice hazy skies and trouble breathing if you're more sensitive to dusty air. But the dust doesn't stop here.

Credit: KENS 5 Weather

Wednesday - By mid-week Saharan dust ramps up continuing to build and push farther north stretching to the Dallas area. The continuing flow of the dust is partly due to a high pressure bringing a southeasterly flow to help pump the dust toward South Texas.

Credit: KENS 5 Weather

Thursday - As the week progresses dust levels continue to rise and could affect air quality levels. For those with any respiratory illnesses they should avoid outdoor activity including vigorous exercise. Also try to keep windows and doors closed. We will continue to monitor this development next week.

Credit: KENS 5 Weather

As dust increases across the area, San Antonians will notice more vibrant sunrises and sunsets. However, during the afternoons the sky appears a more milky white color.

Before You Leave, Check This Out

How can people protect their health during Saharan dust storms?

How does Saharan dust affect immediate weather?

What areas of the Americas have been affected by Saharan dust storms?

What areas of the US have been affected by Saharan dust storms?

This dust does not stop in San Antonio and continues further into the Americas.

What areas of the Americas have been affected by Saharan dust storms?

What areas of the US have been affected by Saharan dust storms?

Saharan dust is more significant than it appears, with impacts on weather, air quality, and health.

How does Saharan dust affect immediate weather?

What are the negative health effects of Saharan dust?

The Texas Hill Country, known as flash flood alley, is vulnerable to both drought and catastrophic floods due to shallow soils and steady Gulf moisture and humidity.

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Content: Federal recognition to advance conservation and military readiness around Camp Bullis

On the west side of Camp Bullis, at the edge of the Dominion neighborhood, Rustin Tabor pulls his truck to the side of a winding road and walks a few feet into the wooded area that lines it.

Further in, stretched across the dirt, is an entrance to a cave — a karst that leads deep under the forest to the Edwards Aquifer. A grate has been installed on the opening to prevent anyone from climbing down into it.

The cave — called Sharon Springs — is one of 112 on Camp Bullis, a military training reservation in Northwest San Antonio. There are 1,474 karst features throughout Camp Bullis, ranging from small cracks and crevices to slits in the earth, that deposit water into the recharge zone of the Edwards Aquifer.

“This one doesn’t seem springy right now,” said Tabor, natural resources manager for Joint Base San Antonio. “But if you come here during wet conditions, the water is actually pushing out of the ground.”

Safeguarding such caves is among many conservation efforts at Camp Bullis and its neighboring lands — nearly 1 million acres — that stand to get a huge boost from the area’s recent inclusion in a federal initiative aimed at protecting defense facilities from land uses that are incompatible with their military missions.

Under the initiative, called the Sentinel Landscape Partnership, such areas can seek to be designated as sentinel landscapes, which can provide priority standing to tap certain sources of public and private funding. Camp Bullis received the designation in March, putting it in line for financing opportunities to strengthen military readiness, promote natural resource conservation and increase agricultural productivity.

The Sentinel Landscape Partnership was established in 2013 in by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Department of Defense and the Department of the Interior. The partnership seeks to connect landowners with government assistance programs to fund land protection and restoration and to implement sustainable land management practices. The aim is that such practices can yield economic and ecological benefits while also protecting defense facilities from development that can hamper military activities, such as training and testing.

The Camp Bullis Sentinel Landscape is the first to receive this recognition in Texas, and one of just a few in the United States. Nearly 40 local organizations have joined as partners, including the Hill Country Alliance, the Trinity Glenrose Groundwater Conservation District, the Edwards Aquifer Authority, the Texas A&M Natural Resources Institute and the Alamo Area Council of Governments. The sentinel landscape will encompass most of Kendall and Comal counties; parts of Bexar, Medina and Bandera counties; and small sections of Kerr and Blanco counties.

The Department of Defense’s Readiness and Environmental Protection Integration Program, known as REPI, is also a major partner for the sentinel landscape by limiting development and land use conversion that could restrict military training and testing. Three segments in the entire area are designated opportunity spots for REPI.

“Agricultural productivity, conservation and military readiness are all tied together in terms of our relationship to the land,” said Daniel Oppenheimer, land program manager for the Hill Country Alliance. “That’s really what this partnership is about, bringing partners together and starting to understand where and how we can work together to bring new technical and financial resources that align with all the ground needs.”

Stemming lights and floods

Thousands of military personnel train each year on the nearly 28,000 acres at Camp Bullis, part of Joint Base San Antonio. The base has 266 mission partners, and about 2,000 people train there every day.

Most of those are training as military medics. Every enlisted medical person in the the U.S. military trains at JBSA-Fort Sam Houston, said Michael Waldrop, the installation support director at Camp Bullis. And they all undergo field components of their training in the natural areas on Camp Bullis.

“In a war zone, you’re usually out in areas like this nature,” Waldrop said. “We want it to be as realistic as possible, so we can’t have any urban elements. They do their urban training elsewhere.”

Development near Camp Bullis can lead to light pollution, loss of agricultural lands and flooding. Outdoor lighting around the northwestern area of San Antonio, from new subdivisions or traffic, can disrupt the natural atmosphere for training. The area south of Camp Bullis is already too heavily illuminated, but the central portion of the camp to the north is still suitable for night training.

But there is concern that lighting is increasing to the north, which is one of the fastest-growing areas in Texas, and not just among the military. Light pollution can also disrupt natural patterns for wildlife, such as bird migration; increase carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; and obscure the stars.

With this new designation, partners can work with developers to preserve dark night skies for military training, birds, natural resources and public health, Oppenheimer said. One solution is to provide funding for landowners and developers to focus their floodlights downward in their yards instead of reaching areas that don’t need to be illuminated.

Another issue the Sentinel Landscape partnership can tackle is flooding in Camp Bullis, 30 percent of which lies in a flood plain, and the surrounding areas.

Texas Hill Country is known as flash flood alley due to its shallow soils and the steady moisture and humidity that comes off the Gulf of Mexico, making the area vulnerable to massive dry spells and drought followed by catastrophic floods.

At Camp Bullis, flash flooding has washed trucks away, covered roads and fields, and even killed a handful of people who got stuck in the floodwaters.

One solution to this involves speaking with landowners and developers about their own goals and values, Oppenheimer said.

“We’re not coming in and telling people what to do,” he said. “We talk about different tools and strategies to get them aligned with their goals and their interests. They don’t want to lose all their soil. They don’t want to be susceptible to drought and flood. Then based on that, we discuss ways they can retain more soil moisture, reduce erosion, and enhance grass production on their property.”

One flood-prevention technique is building berms to slow down water and enable it to be absorbed into the soil, a practice that is especially helpful during heavy rain. A berm is a raised barrier separating areas, which can be made from brush and tree limbs or a grassy strip. With funding through the sentinel partnership, landowners could receive resources to build such structures or hire contractors to help them prepare the land for flooding.

Around Camp Bullis, berms are around the entire area for flooding, some made with brush and others with dirt and grass. In some cases, the berms serve multiple purposes — as bullet catchers for military range practice along with flood prevention.

“It’s not just us,” Waldrop said. “It’s everyone.”

Water as a joint mission

Tabor’s work at Camp Bullis includes protecting the Edwards Aquifer recharge zone’s caves and karsts, along with closely monitoring wildlife on the property, especially creatures that depend on the property for survival.

Camp Bullis provides habitat for the endangered golden-cheeked warbler and aquifer-dependent species, such as the blind salamander, San Marcos salamander and the Comal Springs riffle beetle. Three river systems — the Medina, the San Antonio and the Cibolo — run through Camp Bullis Sentinel Landscape’s massive area.

Of the 28,000 acres at Camp Bullis, 4,000 are within the Edwards Aquifer Recharge Zone. It is also at the convergence of the Trinity Aquifer and karst features along Cibolo Creek. Two aquifers — the Trinity and Edwards — meet under Camp Bullis and influence each other through the flow of groundwater.

All military personnel and others at Camp Bullis depend on water from the Trinity Aquifer and its relationship with the Edwards Aquifer. Compared to the Edwards, the Trinity recharges slowly and needs more time to refresh.

At the Trinity Glen Rose Groundwater Conservation District, Assistant General Manager Amanda Maloukis said a large part of the Sentinel Landcape Partnership’s mission is protecting, preserving and conserving groundwater resources.

“We can bring in educational pieces to the community, to those ranches and landowners, that really helps enhance their own personal conservation efforts,” she said. “We have rain barrel workshops, which can help people put less stress on the aquifer. We have these high-precipitation events, flooding events, and we’re catching that extra runoff in barrels, which can be used.”

Some of the funding could also be used for further research on groundwater dynamics. By better understanding how the aquifers work together and contribute to the greater ecosystem, organizations and agencies can better protect the water for future generations.

Development around Camp Bullis can bring more pressure to the area in terms of pollution, spills and runoff into both aquifers. Groundwater, Maloukis said, is not just for communities around Camp Bullis, but also for the military within the district. It’s important for everyone involved to keep it clean, and with the new sentinel landscape designation, the hope is they’re heading in the right direction.

“All of this water is tied together in terms of our relationship to the land,” Oppenheimer said. “That’s what this is all about, bringing everyone together to see how all these pieces fit into a really complex puzzle.”

Elena Bruess writes for the Express-News through Report for America, a national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms. ReportforAmerica.org. elena.bruess@express-news.net

Military personnel and others at Camp Bullis rely on the connected Trinity and Edwards Aquifers for water supply.

All of the region’s water is linked through the land’s relationship with aquifers.

A level 2 of 3 “slight risk” of severe weather has been issued for portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast, affecting cities such as Jacksonville, Memphis, New Orleans, Corpus Christi, and Orlando.

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The South is in the crosshairs of severe weather again, as the multi-day threat of large hail and tornadoes continues

By Jennifer Gray, CNN meteorologist

The potential for severe weather in the South will continue through the rest of the week, as nearly 50 million people face strong storm threats.

A level 2 out of 3 “slight risk” of severe weather exists for portions of the Gulf Coast, Southeast coast and mid-South, according to the Storm Prediction Center, with cities like Jacksonville, Florida, Memphis, Tennessee, New Orleans, Corpus Christi, Texas, and Orlando, Florida, included in the risk area.

The main severe weather threats for Thursday evening are damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

There’s a broader level 1 out of 5 “marginal risk” of severe weather that includes more than 20 million people from southern Texas to southern Missouri to Florida. This area includes cities like Tampa, Florida, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and Birmingham, Alabama.

There’s also a threat for flash flooding across the Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Places like New Orleans, Mobile, Alabama, and Pensacola, Florida, could experience torrential rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.

“Upwards of 3 to 6 inches of rain will be possible in isolated locations,” said the National Weather Service office in New Orleans.

Another round of severe weather Friday targets Dallas

On Friday, severe weather will strike again as another storm system moves across the South. Nearly 50 million people will be under the threat of storms, including giant hail and tornadoes.

Tornado watch vs tornado warning

The storm center has issued a level 3 out of 5 “enhanced risk” of severe weather for portions of East Texas, including the Dallas area.

“We will wrap up the week with another round of showers and storms as a strong system moves across our region on Friday,” said the NWS office in Fort Worth, Texas. “Large hail to potentially very large (2+ inches) hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, with isolated tornadoes possible.”

How hail is formed

This threat comes on the heels of Wednesday night’s severe weather that brought softball-sized hail to portions of Texas.

There’s is a broader risk of severe weather that extends from portions of southern Oklahoma to south Texas. Cities like San Antonio and Austin are included in this level 2 out of 5 “slight risk” of severe weather.

This area will have a significant hail threat as well, some potentially up to 2 inches in diameter, as well as damaging winds.

Additionally, two level 1 out of 5 “marginal risk” areas of severe weather will impact nearly 40 million people across portions of the South Friday. One area is from southern Oklahoma to south Texas, including Houston. The other area covers much of the Southeast and includes cities like Miami, Jacksonville, Florida, Raleigh, North Carolina, and Charlotte, North Carolina.

Along with the threat of scattered thunderstorms, very heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a concern.

“Three day storm rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected with locally higher 3 to 6 inch amounts possible, most of which will help the current drought conditions across NE FL/SE GA, but will likely produce some temporary localized flooding conditions and possible significant river rises in some basins,” said the NWS office in Jacksonville, Florida.

By Saturday, most of the severe weather will be winding down. However, a level 1 out of 5, “marginal risk” for severe weather will hang around along the Gulf Coast.

While there’s still some uncertainty in the forecast, places like New Orleans, Montgomery, Alabama and Tallahassee, Florida, could see damaging winds, hail and even an isolated tornado.

Get the latest forecast here

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The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has forecast another round of showers and storms as a strong system moves through on Friday.

Tropical Storm Watches are active along the Texas coast with heavy rain potential expected in San Antonio this week.

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Content: Heavy rain potential this week in San Antonio with Tropical Storm Watches along Texas Coast

Rain around San Antonio will begin midday Wednesday, ending late Thursday

As we’ve been reporting, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring the Gulf of Mexico for tropical storm development. Regardless of development, the impact to San Antonio will be times of heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday this week. Here’s what you need to know:

KEY POINTS

  • Latest indications continue to suggest that this system would move west towards Mexico, with the higher wind impacts staying well south of our area
  • However, the area of low pressure will throw deep, tropical moisture and rain north into San Antonio and South Central Texas
  • As of now, scattered tropical downpours are forecast to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, along with cooler temperatures
  • The highest rain totals will be near the coast, but totals in the range of at least 2″-5″ are looking possible closer to San Antonio

HOW MUCH RAIN?

Highest rainfall totals will be near the Texas Coast with up to 7″of rain possible from Tuesday through Thursday. Farther inland, near San Antonio, the number is closer to 2″ to 5″. In the Hill Country, 1″ to 3″.

Please be mindful that it won’t be raining all day Wednesday and Thursday. Rather, there will be times of heavy rain. Still, this could lead to street flooding so please be cautious and check the radar before driving Wednesday and Thursday.

THE LATEST

As of Monday evening, “Potential Tropical Cyclone One” (PTC 1) was located over the Bay of Campeche and is expected to strengthen into a weak tropical storm named Alberto with winds of 45 mph by Wednesday. It is anticipated to stay relatively weak and make landfall in northeastern Mexico by Thursday morning.

If the storm were to take a more northerly track than anticipated, it would result in gusty winds and minor storm surge along Coastal Texas. As a result, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for areas from South Padre Island to Galveston/Coastal Houston.

IMPORTANT: Even though San Antonio and Texas are not in the direct path of the potential tropical storm, we will still see impacts from this system, mainly in the form of heavy, tropical downpours. Times of drought-denting rain would begin midday Wednesday and end by Thursday evening.

TROPICAL STORM NAMES FOR 2024

While details will still need to be fine-tuned in regards to how this system will evolve, we know that it’s forecast to be a busy season across the Atlantic Basin. Here is the list of names that will be used for tropical storms and hurricanes this season.

About the Author

Sarah Spivey is a San Antonio native who grew up watching KSAT. She has been a proud member of the KSAT Weather Authority Team since 2017. Sarah is a Clark High School and Texas A&M University graduate. She previously worked at KTEN News. When Sarah is not busy forecasting, she enjoys hanging out with her husband and cat, and playing music.

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Rainfall in San Antonio will not be continuous but will occur in periods of heavy rain, especially on Wednesday and Thursday.

Recent heavy rain and cloud cover have helped drop temperatures into the 80s for much of South Texas.

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Tropical disturbance covers most of San Antonio with half-an-inch of rain, more showers Thursday

A small tropical disturbance that developed suddenly off the coast and pushed into South Texas over the weekend has brought some minor drought relief.

The National Weather Service reports that during a 48-hour period — ending at 7 a.m. Monday — most of the San Antonio area received around half-an-inch of rain. It's not a drought buster by any means, but it is welcomed in a city with a rainfall deficit for the year that was pushing 14 inches.

Residents have seen a record hot and dry summer and can only water yards with automatic sprinklers once a week or every other week, depending on the city, due to water restrictions. Front yards across San Antonio are noticeably brown and yellow.

The 10-day average of the Edwards Aquifer level has dipped to a little above 631 feet. Stage four water restrictions are trigged for many pumpers if that 10-day average drops another foot.

Light shower activity for San Antonio is expected to taper-off before rush hour on Monday but slick streets will likely remain for the drive home. Higher amounts fell to the far south and southeast of San Antonio late this weekend and through Monday.

Some minor street flooding was reported in the Corpus Christi area on Monday morning. The coastal city is also under water restrictions as the Choke Canyon Reservoir and Lake Corpus Christi were only 34% and 43% full respectively.

Medina Lake west of San Antonio started the week only 9% full. Some area rivers, such as the Frio, have seen zero flow rates in recent weeks. The release from Canyon Lake onto the Guadalupe River was at 108 cubic feet per second on Monday. Idea tubing conditions on the river are considered to be around 250 to 350 CFS, a fairly slow float.

The tropical activity is expected to push to the west over the mountains of northern Mexico through Tuesday. Another 1 to 3 inches could fall far west of San Antonio and along the Rio Grande during that period. Some flooding was also reported along the border on Monday.

The rain and cloud cover dropped temperatures into the 80s for much of South Texas. Some parts of the Hill Country could see early Tuesday morning lows around 70.

Moderate rain chances return on Thursday with shower activity tapering off into the weekend.

TPR was founded by and is supported by our community. If you value our commitment to the highest standards of responsible journalism and are able to do so, please consider making your gift of support today.

Brian Kirkpatrick can be reached at brian@tpr.org and on Twitter at @TPRBrian

Some nearby rivers, such as the Frio, have recorded zero flow rates in recent weeks, highlighting regional drought conditions.

Another 1 to 3 inches of rain could fall west of San Antonio and along the Rio Grande.

Past Red Cross disaster responses emphasize that future crises may be more severe and require adjusted strategies.

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Content: Equilibrium/Sustainability

Equilibrium/Sustainability — Presented by Southern Company — Migration, security threats run together in warming world

Today is Thursday.  Welcome to Equilibrium, a newsletter that tracks the growing global battle over the future of sustainability. Subscribe here: thehill.com/newsletter-signup.

The Biden administration issued an ominous forecast for the planet on Thursday morning, with one official declaring that “no country will be spared from the challenges directly related to climate change,” according to CNN.

The official was introducing a series of reports from key federal agencies on impacts of climate change, which ranged from a White House study on the rise in global migration, to a Defense Department review of security risks, to upcoming reports from the Director of National Intelligence and Department of Homeland Security.

The White House migration report dissects a feedback loop in which heightened migration can result from — as well as lead to —  greater instability and violence by “non-state armed groups,” creating a cycle that erodes the ability of destination countries to respond effectively to climate disruption.

The study “was very careful not to frame migration as a purely negative coping mechanism” but stressed the need for it to become a “safe, orderly and humane pathway,” the official said.

Today we’re looking at other causes and effects of that climate disruption. First, a report finds that plastics are on track to contribute more to global warming than coal plants by the end of the decade. Then, the head of disaster operations for the Red Cross discusses how his organization is preparing for a world in which we can expect crises to keep getting worse.

For Equilibrium, we are Saul Elbein and Sharon Udasin. Please send tips or comments to Saul at selbein@thehill.com or Sharon at sudasin@thehill.com. Follow us on Twitter: @saul_elbein and @sharonudasin

Let’s get to it.

Plastic will soon trump coal as climate threat: study

The U.S. plastics industry’s contribution to climate change is on course to surpass that of coal-fired power plants by 2030, a new study has found.

Plastics are responsible for generating at least 232 million tons of carbon-based emissions per year — equivalent to the average emissions from 116 average-sized coal-fired facilities, according to the report, published by Bennington College’s Beyond Plastics initiative.

In 2020 alone, the plastic industry’s reported emissions rose by 10 million tons over 2019, the authors found. Meanwhile, construction is currently underway on another 12 facilities, with 15 in planning processes — meaning that altogether, the new sites could emit more than 40 million additional tons of greenhouse gases annually by 2025, according to the study.

“The fossil fuel industry is losing money from its traditional markets of power generation and transportation,” Judith Enck, former Environmental Protection Agency regional administrator and president of Beyond Plastics, said in a statement.

‘Petrochemical buildout’ outweighs other gains: The petrochemical industry, according to Enck, is “building new plastics facilities at a staggering clip so they can dump their petrochemicals into plastics,” she added. “This petrochemical buildout is cancelling out other global efforts to slow climate change.”

Praising the recent closure of 65 percent of the nation’s coal-fired power plants, the authors stressed that the increase in plastics production is outweighing those gains.

“A severe undercounting” of emissions: Although the U.S. plastics industry reported releasing 114 million tons of greenhouse gases in 2020, an analysis by the Maine-based firm Material Research identified “a severe undercounting of plastics’ climate impacts,” a news release from Beyond Plastics said.

That analysis examined data from federal agencies, including the EPA, the Department of Commerce and the Department of Energy, and identified an additional 118 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions generated from other stages of plastics production — the equivalent of another 59 average-sized coal-fired power plants, the report said.

“This report represents the floor, not the ceiling, of the U.S. plastics industry’s climate impact,” Jim Vallette, president of Material Research and the report’s author, said in a statement.

A MESSAGE FROM SOUTHERN COMPANY

At Southern Company, we achieved our interim net zero energy goal ten years early. Today, we continue our work toward a net zero future.

MOVING TOWARD A ‘CIRCULAR ECONOMY’

Environmental benefits of plastics: In response to the report, Joshua Baca, vice president of plastics for the American Chemistry Council (ACC) — which represents major oil and chemical firms — said that the study “fails to recognize the many environmental benefits plastics provide that move society toward a lower carbon future.”

Baca touted plastic’s potential to drive forward “a more circular economy,” or one that focuses on extending the lifecycle of products and reducing waste. Advanced recycling is “gaining momentum,” while plastic packaging requires less material to perform the same function as glass, metal or paper, according to Baca.

“Like other manufacturing processes, plastics manufacturing does emit greenhouse gases,” Baca said, noting that plastics enable the production of lighter vehicles, wind turbine blades and foam insulation.

“Plastics can ultimately result in a net savings of greenhouse gas emissions over their lifecycles compared to the use of many alternatives,” he added.

An opportunity in plant-based plastics: Jessica Bowman, president of the Plant Based Products Council (PBPC), voiced her support for the report, which she said “confirms our perspective that plastics and other products we use every day have significant climate impacts.”

“Plant-based products present an opportunity to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels,” she added.Bowman, who was not involved with the study, stressed that plant-based products “are the epitome of the circular economy,” particularly when made to be compostable or recyclable.

Last words: “We’re not going to get rid of all the products that we need and use every day,” Bowman said. “We certainly could use less products — but for things we need, being able to make them in a better way, making them from renewable inputs, is really critical.”

To read the full story, please click here.

In chaotic world, planning for disaster is everyone’s job

As the country’s climate becomes more unstable and its social fabric more strained, small nonprofit disaster relief organizations are springing up to help communities deal with crises.

“Maybe they pivoted from supporting schools, or distributing supplies” to giving out meals after a hurricane, Trevor Riggen, head of disaster operations at the American Red Cross, told Equilibrium.

Cooperating with these groups is a crucial part of the future of emergency preparedness, Riggen said. “Those agencies bring huge resources to the table, and know the community much better than someone coming from outside.”

Riggen sat down with Equilibrium on Thursday to share his thoughts on preparing for the disasters of the future.

What led to the rise of these organizations? Need. Disaster has become a “chronic condition for a lot of communities,” Riggen said, forcing existing local-level organizations to adapt.

How do big agencies like the Red Cross and FEMA work with these groups? “Presence is key,” Riggen said. “It’s an age-old thing in disaster work: ‘Don’t exchange business cards in the middle of a disaster.’”

For example, relief organizations can leverage lower-scale, more frequent incidents — emergencies rather than disasters — to build a network. Among the 60,000 events the Red Cross finds itself responding to every year are 200 single-family house fires per day, Riggen said.

These give the organization “a starting point” to help gauge individual and communal readiness to inevitable disasters, and to meet local emergency responders and community groups, he added.

A MESSAGE FROM SOUTHERN COMPANY

At Southern Company, we achieved our interim net zero energy goal ten years early. Today, we continue our work toward a net zero future.

IMAGINING TOMORROW’S CRISES TODAY

What else can emergency managers do? “Understand the forecast,” Riggen said. “In decades past, we focused on fighting the next disaster like it would be much like the last one. After Katrina, we focused on averting the next Katrina.”

What’s wrong with that? The future will not be like the past, he said. Meanwhile, Riggen added, the level of vulnerability in communities is “changing every day, and in most communities it’s getting worse.”

With “inequality, food security, healthcare and education — we have to assume we’re starting from a different starting point on the next disaster,” he said.

Then there’s climate change. The 2016 floods in Baton Rouge, which killed 60 people and caused $10 to $15 billion in property damage, “were a watershed for us: since then, large-scale, complex, climate-driven disasters have been happening across the country, and it’s getting faster and more severe,” Riggen said.

There were 22 natural disasters in 2020 that cost over $1 billion — a number that Riggen predicted will be matched this year and passed in future years.

That means that plans for the 2030s and 2040 should assume many communities have to plan for a “much worse” level of local vulnerability and scale of climate disaster — and not simply how to solve current-level problems with current-level resources, Riggen said.

How do you plan for unpredictable disasters, like Texas ice storms or Northwest heat waves? You build the kinds of resilience that work whatever the disaster is, according to Riggen.

“Take a hurricane: the visible impacts are storm surge, flooding, the house that’s blown down,” he said.

But the storm itself, he explained, doesn’t demonstrate a community’s vulnerability to a hurricane. Rather, that vulnerability “starts with asking where are people starting before the disaster happened,” according to Riggen.

“Do they have the resources to evacuate? A preparedness plan? A couple days of food?” he asked. “All those vulnerabilities make us think about that response differently.”

How so? Because to some extent, it doesn’t matter if you can’t live in your house because of a wildfire, hurricane or long-term power failure.

“Food banks, healthcare, emergency housing — we can put that suite of services into almost any disaster scenario, because they’re focused on the person, not how that displacement was caused,” Riggen said.

That approach to planning, he said, “gets you out the disaster-based box,” he added.

Last words: “In thinking about vulnerability, we have to ask: how do we get people who start in a different place to end up with the same result?” Riggen said.

Thursday Throwdowns

Boris Johnson, Bill Gates ‘throwing money’ toward green energy, but provide minimal details

  • British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Bill Gates launched a £400 million ($552 million) partnership on Tuesday to boost green energy investment, with half the funds coming from the U.K. government and the other half raised from the private sector, the Prime Minister’s Office announced.
  • But Tom Peck, a political sketch writer for the Independent, ridiculed the partners, writing that they “will definitely save the world — just don’t bother with the details.”
  • The prime minister and the billionaire, according to Peck, may simply be “throwing the money at the problem, generating headlines, but with no real clue what to actually do.”
  • Peck criticized Gates for his “guilty pleasure” of flying around the world in his private jets and Johnson for writing climate denial columns just a decade ago. He also pointed out how the two men seemed confused about the amount they were investing.
  • At the end of their announcement, Johnson declared that the U.K. was “putting in £200m, I think Bill is putting in £200m,” while Gates then corrected him that it was actually “four hundred each,” according to Peck. But then, he wrote, it turned out that “Johnson had been right the first time.”

Document leaks show pushback against U.N. climate recommendations

  • A document leak uncovered by BBC News demonstrated how several countries are working to change a key scientific report on how to combat climate change.
  • Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia have demanded that the U.N. play down the urgency to transition away from fossil fuels — pushing back on previous U.N. recommendations that could keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the BBC reported.
  • Within the documents are more than 32,000 submissions from governments, companies and other global parties, sent to a U.N. team of scientists that is collecting scientific evidence as to how to tackle climate change, according to the BBC.
  • An adviser to the Saudi oil ministry asked that “phrases like ‘the need for urgent and accelerated mitigation actions at all scales’” be eliminated, while an Australian official rejected the idea that shutting down coal-fired plants is necessary, the BBC reported.

Please visit The Hill’s sustainability section online for the web version of this newsletter and more stories. We’ll see you on Friday.{mosads}

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Urban planners and experts are increasingly working on restoring water cycles and making space for water in developed areas, as cities are part of larger watersheds.

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The architect making friends with flooding

One Chinese landscape designer has pioneered a new approach—working with water instead of trying to bend it to our will.

December 21, 2021

For years, Beijing landscape architect Yu Kongjian was ridiculed by his fellow citizens as a backward thinker. Some even called him an American spy—a nod to his doctorate from Harvard’s Graduate School of Design and his opposition to dams, those symbols of power and progress in modern China.

Yu’s transgression: he advised working with water, rather than trying to control it.

Yu is at the forefront of a movement that aims to restore the ebb and flow of water to urban environments. His landscape architecture firm Turenscape, which he cofounded in 1998, creates flexible spaces for water to spread out and seep underground, both to prevent flooding and to be stored for later use. His vision is to heal the natural hydrology that we’ve disrupted by tightly confining rivers with levees, putting buildings or parking lots where water wants to linger, or erecting dams that have, to varying degrees, dried up 333 rivers in the Yangtze area. “Those gray infrastructures are actually killers of the natural system, which we have to depend on for our sustainable future,” Yu has said. By trying to solve one problem at a time—flooding here, water scarcity there—the 20th-century approach to water management has undermined itself. “Drainage is separated from the water supply; flood control is separated from drought resistance,” he wrote in 2016 for a paper he presented at a Harvard symposium.

Since the 1700s, we’ve filled or drained as much as 87% of the world’s wetlands, which would otherwise be flexibly absorbing and releasing water. It’s a key reason urban flooding is increasing worldwide: as populations grow and cities expand, builders pave floodplains and farmland, fell forests, and channelize rivers, leaving stormwater that once filtered into the ground with nowhere to go. The land area lost to cities has doubled worldwide since 1992. When a city increases the area of roads, sidewalks, or parking lots by 1%, stormwater runoff boosts annual flood magnitude in nearby waterways by 3.3%.

In dense cities, only around 20% of rain actually infiltrates the soil. Instead, drains and pipes carry it away—lunacy, Yu thinks, in places with water shortages.

In the early 2000s, Yu and a research team created a map of Beijing showing where land was at high risk for flooding, which he called the “ecological security pattern.” His recommendation was that this land should remain undeveloped, and should be used instead to absorb stormwater.

Government officials ignored him. But then, in July 2012, disaster struck. Beijing’s largest storm in more than 60 years chucked down as much as 18 inches of rain in places, flooding roads three feet deep and filling underpasses. Yu barely made it home from work. “I was lucky,” he says. “I saw many people abandon their cars.” Almost 80 people died, most of them drowned in their vehicles, electrocuted, or crushed under collapsed buildings. The damage stretched across 5,400 square miles and cost nearly $2 billion.

“The 2012 flood gave us the lesson that the ecological security pattern is a life-and-death issue.” Yu says.

Climate change has worsened these threats. With every 1 °C increase, the atmosphere holds 7% more water vapor. So when clouds burst into rain, it pours. Meanwhile, dry areas get drier as the warmer air evaporates more water out of soil and plants.

Now we’re starting to see the impact on the water cycle. Summer and fall 2021 brought deadly flooding to New York, New Jersey, Tennessee, Alabama, Germany, Belgium, India, Thailand, and the Philippines. At the same time drought, crop failures, and forest fires plagued the American West, Syria, Guatemala, Greece, and Siberia. Global economic losses from flooding rose from $500 million annually, on average, in the 1980s to $76 billion in 2020. When it comes to drought, more than 2 billion people around the world already live with severe or high water insecurity. Researchers predict that as the climate continues to warm, two-thirds of the global population—more than 5.25 billion people—will experience progressively worse and more frequent drought conditions.

These recent disasters have brought home to many people the truth of what climate scientists have been saying for years: climate change is water change.

Less than a year after the 2012 storm, President Xi Jinping announced a nationwide program dubbed “sponge cities” (because a sponge absorbs water and then releases it slowly). The idea of giving water space was thus elevated from fringe concept to national mission. In 2015 the central government began demonstration projects in 16 cities, and it added 14 more in 2016. Each project covered at least five square miles, although some were larger, with the goal of retaining 70% of the average annual rainfall on site by 2020.

In November of that year, the state-controlled broadcaster China Central Television reported completion of the 30 pilot projects. It said they were preventing and mitigating urban disasters, increasing environmental benefits to waterways, and reducing water pollution. CCTV further reported that between 2016 and 2020, the sponge city concept had been implemented in 90 provincial-level cities and included in the master plans for 538 cities. A new goal aims for 100 cities with more than 1 million people to meet the 70% rainwater capture target by 2030.

Two views of Tongnan Dafo Temple Wetland Park in Chongqing City. Below, a structure inspired by the Dafo Temple. At right, an aerial view of the park. In 2020, Chongqing faced a 100 year storm, but the landscape protected nearby farms from flooding.

“It is, of course, a success story,” says Chris Zevenbergen, an expert in urban flood-risk management at the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands and a visiting professor at China’s Southeast University. Chinese government reports are best viewed with skepticism, but Zevenbergen says he’s cautiously optimistic that the rosy assessment will be borne out.

Sponge cities are part of a worldwide movement that goes by various names: green infrastructure in Europe, low-impact development in the United States, water-sensitive urban design in Australia, natural infrastructure in Peru, nature-based solutions in Canada. In contrast to industrial management, in which people confine water with levees, channels, and asphalt and rush it off the land as quickly as possible, these newer approaches seek to restore water’s natural tendency to linger in places like wetlands and floodplains.

Yu is concerned that China may be applying a cookie-cutter approach to sponge cities: “Every patient needs a different solution.”

Because of that common thread, I’ve come to think of them collectively as the “Slow Water” movement. As in the Slow Food movement, solutions are tailored to local ecology, climate, and people. The most ambitious Slow Water projects involve conserving or restoring wetlands, river floodplains, and mountain forests, simultaneously safeguarding carbon storage and protecting homes for threatened plants and animals. But there are also small urban projects, shoehorned between buildings or in narrow corridors along streets.

In April 2018, on a day with a “very high” air pollution rating, I visited Yu at Turenscape’s headquarters in Beijing. A slim, intense man with shrewd eyes and just a bit of gray at the temples, he told me that his passion for repairing humans’ relationship with water comes from his childhood during the Mao years, spent on an agricultural commune in Zhejiang province southwest of Shanghai. The youngest of five children, he spent his days observing Chinese “peasant wisdom” for managing water, techniques that had been practiced for thousands of years. To cope with scarcity, farmers maintained little ponds and berms to help rainfall infiltrate the ground, storing it for a dry day. The seasonal creek next to his village swelled and retreated with the seasons. “For me, flood is a time of excitement because the fish come to the field, the fish come to the pond,” he said. But as the country urbanized, the Chinese abandoned that knowledge and followed the Western path. Now, he believes, they need to reclaim that ethos: “We need to make friends with flooding.”

Yu has built Turenscape into an empire, with 600 employees in three offices. The company has more than 640 projects completed or underway in 250 Chinese cities and 10 other countries. Turenscape also publishes a magazine called Landscape Architecture Frontiers, in both Chinese and English, and supports master’s and PhD candidates and postdocs who are researching hydrology or ecology, or measuring the efficacy of completed projects.

The founder and dean of the College of Architecture and Landscape at Peking University, Yu has also taught periodically at Harvard. He lectures regularly at the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and his 2003 book Letters to the Leaders of China: Kongjian Yu and the Future of the Chinese City is in its 13th printing. He’s been asked to consult in other countries: Mexico, for example, is hoping he can help solve Mexico City’s water problems, which are similar to Beijing’s.

When planning a project, designers first must figure out what water did before people built a city. In a large white room at Turenscape’s offices, young men and women sit at desks separated by a jungle of plants, focused intently on that question. They construct models of how water behaves within the built environment, factoring in each place’s specific ecology, geology, hydrology, and culture—a kind of computational geography. The data allows Yu and other Slow Water practitioners to model how reshaping the land and available space in various ways affects how water flows and slows.

Yu is now something of a hero to young landscape architects. Accompanying us to various sites was Geng Ran, an employee who exudes intense excitement to be working for him. Throughout the day, we were perpetually trotting after Yu as he rushed ahead. “He’s always like this,” said Geng, laughing.

While Yu retains his farmer’s values, he is a man of modern China. He bought and renovated a building in one of Beijing’s few remaining historic hutong neighborhoods, turning it into a private club for fellow Harvard grads, Beijing politicians, and other power brokers. This move is in keeping with his modus operandi, according to Niall Kirkwood, a professor of landscape architecture and technology at Harvard’s Graduate School of Design who has known Yu for many years. Kirkwood says Yu is a political animal, and that this—along with his vision and ambition—accounts for his success.

I got a chance to observe Yu in his natural habitat that evening. He escorted me and Geng into the club through a set of engraved metal doors and across the courtyard, where the traditional stone floor had been replaced with thick glass. Inside he ushered us downstairs to a massive table underneath that transparent floor. As we sat in ornate, carved chairs sipping bright-green cucumber juice, I looked at the moon above. Finance ministers were also visiting the club that evening, so Yu rotated between our tables. Before we left, he gave me a souvenir: a heavy tome titled Designed Ecologies: The Landscape Architecture of Kongjian Yu. After dinner, his driver chauffeured us in a brand-new Mercedes minivan to my hotel, where Yu got out to walk home—his daily constitutional.

A week later I visited one of Turenscape’s projects in progress: Yongxing River Park, located in Daxing, a far-flung exurb of Beijing. “Before” satellite pictures from three years earlier showed a  river straightened and confined by steep concrete walls. “Now” pictures were chock-a-block with buildings around a more generous, meandering path for water.

The project was nearly complete when I saw it. About two and a half miles long and perhaps two city blocks wide, the park follows the river. Workers removed concrete along the river channel and excavated soil to widen the riverbed. That dirt was then molded into a large berm running down the center, creating two channels. The river flows on one side; the other channel has big holes of varying depths that act as filtration pools. During the dry season, the filtration side is filled with partially cleaned effluent from a sewage treatment plant. Wetland plants in the pools clean it further, and the slow pace allows some water to filter underground. During the monsoon season, that channel is reserved for floodwaters, and the effluent is treated industrially.

Geng and I walked a slim concrete path atop the central berm. Many of Turenscape’s designs feature walkways such as this, soaring above wetlands, so people can enter the landscape year-round and appreciate changes from season to season. The broader riverbanks, newly freed from concrete, are dotted with thousands of small sedges planted in closely set rows to hold the earth, like a pointillist-rendered landscape. We passed young willows, a native streamside plant that can survive flooding. Elsewhere, reeds, dwarf lilyturf, and other native plants stabilize the soil. Turenscape mostly uses native plants in its designs because they thrive on the water, weather, and nutrients available.

In summer 2020, during heavy summer rains, Yu sent me photos of Yongxing River Park. The trees and grasses had grown up considerably since I’d visited. The channel contained a lot of water but was nowhere close to overtopping. Turenscape does not yet have data on Yongxing’s flood capacity, infiltration rate, or water-cleaning services, but Yu called its management of that year’s monsoon a “great performance.”

It can be hard for people to conceive of making space for water in a populated area, but it’s possible. Taking advantage of space in growing exurbs like Daxing is one approach. Another is to stop building atop protective wetlands and coastal habitats—absorption capacity that is continually squandered.

Other opportunities to make space for water and reduce future losses are found even in city centers, where buildings are torn down more frequently than people assume. Disasters can also be a catalyst, such as when governments use emergency funds to buy and remove flooded buildings and convert the area to an absorbent park. Cleaned-up former industrial sites can offer up a lot of space too—often right alongside rivers. Other techniques to accommodate water in compact cities include bioswales (ditches lined with water-loving plants), infiltration ponds, rain gardens, and seepage wells. Where human space is nonnegotiable, designers sometimes use features such as permeable pavement and green roofs that can absorb water.

Yu has converted his house, a duplex he shares with his sister, into a living laboratory for some of these techniques. In the hallway are photos of his family back on the farm, Yu and his Harvard mentor, Yu with two Chinese presidents. Between the apartments, he built a living wall of porous limestone. Water captured from the roof dribbles down its face, from which maidenhair ferns and philodendrons sprout. The green wall cools the two homes enough to make air-conditioning unnecessary, although he concedes that it gets a bit warm in summer. Plants on decks off the bedrooms are watered with roof-caught rain, stored in tanks under the raised plant beds. “We collect 52 cubic meters of stormwater [annually], and I grow 32 kilograms of vegetables,” Yu says proudly. His efforts also reduce runoff from his building’s roof and decrease his personal water usage from city sources.

Though Xi’s sponge cities initiative is based on principles that mirror his own ideas, Yu fears that in some cases, China may be doing it wrong. The country has sometimes used cookie-cutter solutions for other programs, Yu says, but for sponge cities to be successful, each project must be place-specific. As Yu puts it, “Every patient needs a different solution.”

Monsoon rains across China have been heavy the last couple of summers, challenging not only standard water infrastructure, such as dams—several of which have failed or come close to it—but also the fledgling sponge cities. In summer 2021, one pilot project city with a population of around 7 million, Zhengzhou, suffered significant flooding when more than eight inches of rain fell in one hour and almost 300 people died, leading some to ask whether sponge cities were working.

Zevenbergen notes that designs may need to be tweaked to better match local needs. But the bigger factor may be that the interventions simply aren’t ambitious enough. Absorbing 70% of rainfall across five square miles of a city that spans 2,900 square miles won’t prevent flooding. Slow Water projects work best when they can absorb water across the full landscape, so planners need to think beyond the urban footprint. A city is part of a larger watershed. Restoring space for water upstream in natural river floodplains can lower the water levels downstream.

In this, too, Yu is hard at work. He’s creating a landscape master plan for all of China. At his office, he showed me a series of maps that document China’s elevation, watersheds, flood paths, biodiversity, desertification, ecological security, soil erosion, and cultural heritage. As urbanization spreads, as estuaries and deltas silt up, as water starts to move differently across landscapes and cityscapes, he identifies the spots where his projects will have the biggest impact.

“This is a philosophy for taking care of the continental landscape,” Yu says. “It’s time to expand the scale.”

Erica Gies is a journalist based in Victoria, British Columbia, and San Francisco. This story has been adapted from her book Water Always Wins: Thriving in an Age of Drought and Deluge, available for preorder at slowwater.world.

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