India and Russia signed a program of cooperation to boost trade and joint investment projects in Russia's Far East Region during Modi-Putin talks.

They agreed to strengthen connectivity and security linkages in the Eurasian space and Indian and Pacific Oceans.

Both countries intend to implement the idea of a 'Greater Eurasian Space'.

There are deep-rooted reasons for New Delhi and Moscow to rely on each other.

Though Modi and Putin could have met at BRICS or G20, Putin did not attend either summit.

Putin stated that Modi’s policy is the "main guarantor" of developing bilateral ties.

Russia has reservations about the Quad and Indo-Pacific concepts, viewing them as US-led bloc politics in Asia.

A core factor is Russia’s respect for India’s strategic autonomy.

Modi’s visit to Russia signals India isn't afraid to pursue its own agenda, even if it angers the US.

India's relationship with Russia dates to the Cold War, with trade growing since Russia began its war in Ukraine.

India is now a major buyer of Russian oil.

Modi is engaging more with Putin to balance China’s advances.

India aims to avoid conflict on additional fronts, especially with adversaries China and Pakistan.

India has emphasized further cooperation with Russia in trade, energy, and defense sectors.

Both sides consider this a significant turning point in relations.

India is rising as a new global geopolitical power.

They issued a joint statement expressing deep concern over the situation in the Middle East, especially Gaza, and called for the immediate release of hostages and humanitarian access.

India and Russia also stressed the importance of combating climate change and meeting the goals of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement.

During his Russia visit, PM Modi held talks with President Putin.

Modi’s foreign policy is being closely watched by foreign capitals.

After Chinese aggression in Ladakh in 2020, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov had a critical view of India’s China policy.

India is unwilling to allow any power to veto its relationships with rivals.

Earlier governments were cautious of upsetting Moscow and Beijing, but today India exercises greater global maneuverability.

India is aligning more with the US and allies, driven by economic and technological goals and larger global aspirations.

India opted out of RCEP due to China's expected unfair advantage.

China remains a key factor in India-US relations and in India's position as an alternative in the global supply chain.

The US increasingly values the Indian Ocean, seeing India as integral to regional maritime security.

India and the US have signed an Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology and deepened defense ties.

Global supply chain issues, partially due to China's dominance, will feature in upcoming India-US discussions.

Prime Minister Modi has continued to develop India’s longstanding ties with Russia while balancing growing relations with the United States.

India and China are not allies, and India’s rivalry with China continues to shape its foreign policy decisions.

China congratulated Modi on his recent election victory, with officials describing Sino-Indian relations as being on a "healthy and stable path," but competition remains significant.

Modi has regularly met with President Putin in forums like the Kremlin and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, even as global power dynamics enter a new era.

India’s foreign policy approach has evolved in the context of declining U.S. global influence and shifting alliances.

There is no NATO-like alliance in Asia to deter China’s rise, making India’s strategic autonomy and bilateral relations with Russia particularly important.

India is cautious not to fall into the trap of the U.S.-China Cold War and seeks to maintain flexibility in its partnerships.

Despite Western efforts to cap Russian oil prices, India has continued economic cooperation with Russia, pursuing trade in energy, defense, transport, and space.

India has launched policy initiatives in Russia’s Far East and seeks to be an active player in the Indo-Pacific region, enhancing access to the Asian part of Russia.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has complicated India’s foreign policy, with Russia no longer serving as a reliable balancer in the wake of China’s assertiveness.

New Delhi is increasingly concerned about how to manage China’s consolidation of influence in the region, rather than simply balancing between the West and Russia.

India has also attempted to prevent Russia from getting too close to China, reflecting the complexity of its regional security environment.

Russia has recently lost its longstanding dominance over the Indian arms market, although new agreements in defense and other sectors are expected.

Both governments acknowledge the importance of upcoming leadership meetings, underscoring a desire for continued bilateral cooperation despite tensions.

Nuclear deterrence remains a significant aspect, as India, Russia, and China are all nuclear powers.

Historically, India remains grateful for Soviet and Russian support in previous conflicts, but current events highlight the challenge of balancing between strong partners.

India’s aspiration for permanent UN Security Council membership also guides its international engagement, seeing relations with Russia as part of a successful system.

Amid global uncertainty, the India–Russia relationship is enduring but faces challenges due to shifting regional dynamics and the growing influence of China.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has sought to restore Russia’s foreign policy influence in regions historically significant to the Soviet era, particularly as Russia’s activity has increased since the Ukraine war.

Under Putin, Russia has prioritized engagement in Latin America and Africa, often replacing diplomatic missions with military experts, including Wagner forces.

Russia was the first country to share nuclear technology with India, underscoring a long-standing strategic partnership when others hesitated.

Prime Minister Modi has described Russia as a constant and reliable partner, deepening the perception of enduring friendship.

During Modi’s visit to Moscow, he and Putin discussed key bilateral issues, including the unresolved trade imbalance and the Ukraine conflict.

The visit was viewed as significant, reaffirming the importance both countries place on their relationship.

Russia has begun delivering missile systems to India, supporting India’s defense amid ongoing tensions with both Pakistan and China.

Defense cooperation remains a cornerstone of India-Russia ties, carried over from Cold War alliances, with over sixty percent of India’s weapons still sourced from Russia.

India’s dependence on Russian arms requires ongoing access to spare parts and maintenance.

As Russia’s ties with the West deteriorate, it has moved closer to China and Pakistan, raising concerns for India given its rivalry with China.

India is also developing its role in the Middle East, building diverse security and trade partnerships, highlighting its approach of engaging with multiple blocs rather than exclusive alliances.

Despite Western pressure over the Ukraine invasion, India has maintained its relationship with Moscow out of strategic necessity, in part due to its concerns about China.

India relies on Russia for key imports like energy and fertilizer, while Russia values India’s market and trade as a means to mitigate Western sanctions.

Putin’s recent visits to India have emphasized preparation for future geostrategic challenges, reflecting mutual concerns about evolving power structures.

China-Russia relations are not equal, and the deepening border crisis between India and China has strained Beijing-Delhi relations further, with India wary of any China-Russia-Pakistan alignment.

India seeks to avoid outcomes that would solidify such hostile blocs, maintaining nuanced but firm ties with Russia.

The changing world order, exacerbated by the Ukraine war, will significantly influence India’s foreign policy outlook, especially as India stresses a multipolar world and rejects polarized alliances.

Russia’s foreign policy now stresses sovereignty, multipolarity, and intensified engagement with actors across the global South and East, including India.

Russia continues to hold joint military exercises with India, and plans similar exercises with China, laying the foundation for deeper military interaction with both countries.

India spearheaded a significant initiative for the Global South by advocating for the African Union’s G20 membership, highlighting its growing diplomatic role amid US-China tensions.

India’s proposal to strengthen the Global South is seen as attractive as a US-China “new cold war” dominates international issues.

Despite India’s ambitions, analysts note it still faces considerable challenges before attaining major power status.

The leaders of India, Russia, and China held a virtual summit to discuss reshaping the US-led global order.

This summit signaled an intention by the three states to assert their roles in a new “multipolar” world, as emphasized by Putin.

China remains Russia’s most crucial supporter, offering diplomatic and economic backing amid Moscow’s global isolation.

Given these shifts, experts suggest India’s best stance on the Ukraine conflict is to remain neutral.

However, the era of Russian dominance in India’s foreign policy is waning.

Managing China’s rise has become a defining issue for India’s leadership over the past two decades.

India seeks to maintain its ties with Russia while increasingly viewing the EU as an important partner in addressing China’s emergence.

This strategy is reinforced by Europe’s changing perspective toward China.

The United States, meanwhile, encourages Europe to take on more security responsibilities and wants India to ensure Asian regional stability.

Regional analysts agree the Russia-India relationship remains robust for now, but predict a long-term shift from partnership to more transactional ties.

India and Russia signed a program of cooperation to boost trade and joint investment projects in Russia's Far East Region during Modi-Putin talks.

Title:

Content:
India and Russia signed a program of cooperation to boost trade and joint investment projects in Russia's Far East Region during Modi-Putin talks on Tuesday. At the same time, they agreed to strengthen connectivity and security linkages in the Eurasian space and Indian and Pacific Oceans.

The 22nd Russia-India Annual Summit will lead to a greater collaboration between the two countries in Russian Far East and the Eurasian space, including the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), according to experts.

The 81-paragraphbilateral Joint Statement underscored the "shared vision" to enhance transport and connectivity cooperation, as well as a "solid commitment" to enhance economic linkages in Russia's resource-rich Far East, Pravesh Kumar Gupta, an Associate Fellow at New Delhi-based think tank Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), told Sputnik India.

The 22nd Annual Summit, a "unique and pivotal event in the current global geopolitical context" according to Gupta, exposed the disappointment of Western countries.

"Amidst global turbulence, the summit served as a crucial platform for leaders to engage in constructive discussions and strategic dialogues, with the aim of bolstering cooperation in vital areas such as trade, energy, connectivity, defence, and technology. This event has been widely acknowledged as a significant milestone in the ongoing development of the close ties between India and Russia, a success that stood in stark contrast to the disappointment felt by the Western world," the Indian think-tanker asserted.

Lauding the Summit outcomes, Gupta remarked that the leaders would intensify effort to develop "promising production and marketing chains in Eurasia" and stick to the new plan for the Far East in providing enhanced cooperation in different sectors, including transport and connectivity.

Specifically both leaders shared a vision pointing to three projects – International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor as well as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), or the Polar Route.

"Most importantly, these connectivity projects are free from any political agenda, unlike the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as clearly mentioned in the joint statement. Their implementation will be based on the principles of transparency, broad participation, local priorities, financial sustainability, and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations," the VIF pundit underlined.

Gupta expressed confidence that the proposal to establish a joint working group on developing the NSR would speed up the project, which promised "significant cost savings and reduced shipping times" for goods traveling between Europe and Asia.

"The route's increased accessibility due to melting Arctic ice has sparked increased interest in its potential for commercial shipping and trade, offering a bright future for global trade," Gupta stated.

In the context of the INSTC, the expert underscored that it could turn out to be the most "cost-effective and favourable" connectivity project to increase Indian exports to Eurasia and vice-versa. He explained that the 7,200-kilometre-long multimodal corridor was in line with Moscow's geo-economic focus on Asia-Pacific following the Ukraine conflict.

Russia, India To Implement The Idea of A 'Greater Eurasian Space'

In terms of bolstering cooperation in Asia-Pacific, or near India's own neighbourhood, Modi and Putin shared approaches on building a "new architecture" of a 'Greater Eurasian space'.

Although, initially Russia was focused primarily on the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, the Ukrainian conflict completely changed the situation, Alexey Kupriyanov, an expert in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) at Moscow-based think tank IMEMO RAS told Sputnik India.

At the same time, the think-tanker highlighted that a growing trade turnover between Russia and India was pushing Moscow to return to the Indian Ocean Region, primarily to ensure the protecting of Russian vessels in areas not covered by Indian Navy's operations, which include the Red Sea and the Mediterranean region.

"In the long term, this means that Russian ships will soon operate more intensively in the Indian Ocean and expand their presence," Kupriyanov stressed.

It would bolster India's security efforts and help it manage the power competition between China and the US, even as Indian Navy has intensified inter-operability with western maritime forces in recent years, the expert asserted.

"Since India's focus is primarily on the eastern part of the region, Russian ships in the western part could help fill the vacuum of security there. This will reduce the need for East African countries to seek help from China and the US to combat pirates, smugglers and drug traffickers," Kupriyanov concluded.

(With Inputs From Agencies)

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

What formal frameworks do India and Russia cooperate within?

They agreed to strengthen connectivity and security linkages in the Eurasian space and Indian and Pacific Oceans.

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

In what regions do India and Russia have common strategic interests?

Both countries intend to implement the idea of a 'Greater Eurasian Space'.

There are deep-rooted reasons for New Delhi and Moscow to rely on each other.

Title:

Content: 31 Dec, 2023 08:46

Deeper than diplomacy: There is a reason why New Delhi and Moscow rely on each other

Russia’s respect for India’s policy of strategic autonomy is the core strength of bilateral ties, as the Indian foreign minister’s latest visit proves

Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s five-day official visit to Russia was timely and significant for more than one reason.

India and Russia had held annual summits at the leadership level since 2000. This sent an important message in terms of the value attached by the two countries to bilateral ties, but it also conveyed a broader geopolitical message to other international partners of the two countries.

But this practice was broken largely because of Russia’s pre-occupation with the Ukraine conflict and its fallout. The last annual summit took place in 2021.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin could have held a summit on the margins of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in South Africa or the G20 summit in New Delhi, but Putin did not attend either. While Jaishankar’s visit does not substitute for a summit meeting, it was intended to fill a political gap.

Jaishankar and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have met six times during the year, and the Indian external affairs minister also met with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov during the year on the economic agenda. For Jaishankar to visit Russia before the end of the year, undeterred by the Russian winter and holiday season, reflects the importance both sides attach to the further expansion of ties.

Putin has on several occasions praised the Indian prime minister and positively noted the country’s economic progress. At the ‘Russia Calling’ Forum in early December this year, he said that despite pressure from others, he “cannot imagine that Modi could be frightened, intimidated or forced to take any actions, steps, decisions that would at variance with the national interest of India and the Indian people.” He noted that sometimes he is surprised at Modi’s tough stance on Indian national interests. He added that the policy pursued by Modi is the “main guarantor” of the developing bilateral ties.

This is high and unusual praise by Putin. It can be interpreted on several levels – particularly as an acknowledgement that India has resisted pressure from the US and others to condemn Russia over the Ukraine conflict, impose sanctions, and reduce defense ties with Russia. India has, on the contrary, bought discounted Russian oil to the point that Russia has become its biggest oil supplier. It has argued that ensuring this market flow of Russian oil has helped avoid a major spike in oil prices and checked global inflation. Indian-Russian trade has expanded, while the G7 has broken economic and trade ties with Russia.

India played a major role as G20 president in negotiating the part in the Leaders’ Declaration on the Ukraine conflict despite the hardening of the G7 position and that of Russia and China after the G20 summit in Bali. The final text does not mention Russia by name, while the G7 was satisfied that the general formulations in it could be sold as being directed at Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.

Not surprisingly, Putin complimented India for de-politicizing the G20. India chaired the SCO summit in July 2023 and participated in the BRICS summit in South Africa in August 2023. This countered G7 attempts to isolate Russia diplomatically. In fact, the New Delhi SCO Declaration spoke of more effective global institutions, a more representative, just, and multipolar world order based on international law and multilateralism, and criticized the unilateral application of economic sanctions – a clear critique of the Western-dominated global system.

It is against this backdrop that Putin received Jaishankar at the Kremlin, the first time that such a gesture has been made to him personally. The general unavailability of Putin to visiting foreign ministers is well-known.

Jaishankar delivered a personal message from Modi to Putin. During the meeting, Putin invited his “friend Modi” to visit Russia in 2024 and noted that Indian-Russian ties were on the whole developing well. He said that he had been briefing Modi on developments in Ukraine, remarking that he understands the Indian prime minister is willing to do his utmost to resolve the matter by peaceful means. He added that he would give additional information to Jaishankar on Ukraine.

India has continued to strengthen ties with the US, including in the defense domain. It is a member of the Quad and a strong supporter of the Indo-Pacific concept, both of which are intended to deter China’s regional ambitions. Russia has reservations about the Quad and the Indo-Pacific concept, which it sees as the US engaging in bloc politics in Asia.

Putin’s praise for Modi and India and the gesture of receiving Jaishankar takes into consideration these realities of India’s foreign policy which are meant to safeguard the larger national interests. At the core of this is Russia’s respect for India’s policy of strategic autonomy. Jaishankar’s high-profile visit and the vigorous language used to mark the importance of India’s traditional ties with Russia would have caught Washington’s attention.

Jaishankar noted that after talks with Lavrov, “what clearly came out was that India-Russia relations remain very steady, remain very strong, they are based on our strategic convergence, on our geopolitical interests, and because they are mutually beneficial.” The two leaders discussed political cooperation within international organizations such as BRICS, the SCO, etc.

Indian-Russian trade is at an all-time high, exceeding $50 billion last year, and should pass that figure this year. It includes energy, fertilizers, coking coal, and other items, for which long term arrangements were discussed. India intends to expand investments in Russia’s oil and gas sector.

On the nuclear side, two important amendments were agreed to which will take the Kudankulam nuclear power project forward. Mutual investments, progress on a bilateral investment treaty, and the resumption of negotiations between India and the Eurasian Economic Union for a free trade agreement will be resumed in the second half of January 2024.

Moscow and New Delhi will expand cooperation in the Russian Far East. India expects a large representation from this region at the Vibrant Gujarat Summit in January 2024.

Connectivity between India and Russia will be critical for expanding trade ties – connectivity from western India through the International North-South Transport Corridor, and connectivity from eastern India, from Chennai to Vladivostok, and the polar route. To promote tourism, India is open to increasing the number of flights from India every week.

The talks between Jaishankar and Lavrov were comprehensive. They discussed the global strategic situation, Ukraine, Gaza, the Indo-Pacific, ASEAN, Afghanistan, UN-related matters, the challenges facing the Global South, and the building of a multipolar order. China would undoubtedly have been discussed, but diplomatic discretion here would be normal.

In the joint press conference, Lavrov spoke of prospects for more defense cooperation, including joint production of modern weapons under New Delhi’s ‘Make in India’ program, and, importantly, expressed respect for India’s efforts to diversify its defense ties. He noted bilateral cooperation in rocket engine manufacturing and satellite navigation systems.

Jaishankar’s visit was productive in maintaining the momentum of Indian-Russian ties, which have been built over 60 years, a relationship that he believes is not just about politics, diplomacy, or economics, but is much deeper.

Where India Meets Russia – We are now on WhatsApp! Follow and share RT India in English and in Hindi

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.

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In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

What do Putin and Modi officially characterize Russia/ India relationship as?

Though Modi and Putin could have met at BRICS or G20, Putin did not attend either summit.

What formal frameworks do India and Russia cooperate within?

Putin stated that Modi’s policy is the "main guarantor" of developing bilateral ties.

Russia has reservations about the Quad and Indo-Pacific concepts, viewing them as US-led bloc politics in Asia.

What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

A core factor is Russia’s respect for India’s strategic autonomy.

Modi’s visit to Russia signals India isn't afraid to pursue its own agenda, even if it angers the US.

Title:

Content: Homepage

Modi's Russia visit shows India isn't worried about making the US mad

  • In a move likely to anger the US, Modi is visiting Russia.
  • The move signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow, and shows the world India is pursuing its own agenda.
  • Modi is aiming to correct the trade imbalance and address China's Indo-Pacific activities.
Advertisement

In a move likely to anger the US, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Russia on Monday for his first bilateral trip after winning a historic third term in office.

Modi's two-day visit to Russia — where he is scheduled to meet with President Vladimir Putin — is significant in that it signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow. It also shows the world that India is not afraid to pursue its own agenda.

Vinay Kwatra, India's foreign secretary, told reporters in New Delhi that issues between Russia and India have "piled up" and "need to be addressed," per Bloomberg.

Russia's relationship with India goes back to the Cold War, and trade between the two countries has grown since Russia started the war in Ukraine. India is a major buyer of Russian oil. Russia is also India's biggest arms supplier.

Advertisement

Kwatra underscored that the two countries' trade relationship has remained "resilient."

Still, Modi's trip will "rankle many Western observers," Ved Shinde, a researcher and contributor to Australia's Lowy Institute think tank, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

"Since the Ukraine war began, India's purchase of cheap oil from Russia has been seen as profiting from troubles in the heart of Europe," Shinde added.

Modi's visit to Russia will make the US look bad

Just like Putin's visit to supply-chain hot spot Vietnam, India's engagement with Russia isn't a good look for the US, as it comes while Washington is isolating Putin's regime.

Advertisement

The US has raised "some concerns" about India's relationship with Russia with New Delhi, Kurt Campbell, the US Deputy Secretary of State, said last month.

However, Washington acknowledges that India's ties with Russia are different from its ties with the US.

"We have many areas of alignment, but it is not surprising that there would be areas where we've had perhaps different perspectives, views, historical ties," Campbell said about America's relationship with India.

India, for its part, is looking to balance its relationship with the world's key powerbrokers — the US, Russia, and China.

Advertisement

"There are different degrees in India's multi-alignment. Make no mistake — the United States and its allies are more consequential for India's future than its relationship with Russia," wrote Shinde.

India needs to leverage its historical ties with Russia to secure its economy and security, so Modi isn't just in Russia for a goodwill trip.

Reducing the trade imbalance

A key agenda item for the visit is to reduce a huge bilateral trade imbalance, said Kwatra.

India imports about $60 billion of goods a year from Russia, but Russia buys less than 10% of this amount from India, per Bloomberg.

Advertisement

Modi may also touch on China's activities in the Indo-Pacific region, said Kwatra.

India is trying to manage its relationship with China, which has been testy since a border dispute in 2020. Modi skipped the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kazakhstan last week.

There's also the matter of Russia's ties with China.

At the summit last week, Putin said Russia's relationship with China is in the "best period in history."

Advertisement

Modi now needs to cozy up to Putin to counter China's advances.

"The reason for the time-tested stability in India-Russia ties is to maintain a continental balance in the Eurasian heartland. That is, to balance China," wrote Shinde.

"Or to put it another way, don't go around making new adversaries when there are already two open fronts — China and Pakistan," Shinde added.

Politics India Russia
Advertisement

Jump to

  1. Main content
  2. Search
  3. Account

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

India's relationship with Russia dates to the Cold War, with trade growing since Russia began its war in Ukraine.

Title:

Content: Homepage

Modi's Russia visit shows India isn't worried about making the US mad

  • In a move likely to anger the US, Modi is visiting Russia.
  • The move signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow, and shows the world India is pursuing its own agenda.
  • Modi is aiming to correct the trade imbalance and address China's Indo-Pacific activities.
Advertisement

In a move likely to anger the US, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Russia on Monday for his first bilateral trip after winning a historic third term in office.

Modi's two-day visit to Russia — where he is scheduled to meet with President Vladimir Putin — is significant in that it signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow. It also shows the world that India is not afraid to pursue its own agenda.

Vinay Kwatra, India's foreign secretary, told reporters in New Delhi that issues between Russia and India have "piled up" and "need to be addressed," per Bloomberg.

Russia's relationship with India goes back to the Cold War, and trade between the two countries has grown since Russia started the war in Ukraine. India is a major buyer of Russian oil. Russia is also India's biggest arms supplier.

Advertisement

Kwatra underscored that the two countries' trade relationship has remained "resilient."

Still, Modi's trip will "rankle many Western observers," Ved Shinde, a researcher and contributor to Australia's Lowy Institute think tank, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

"Since the Ukraine war began, India's purchase of cheap oil from Russia has been seen as profiting from troubles in the heart of Europe," Shinde added.

Modi's visit to Russia will make the US look bad

Just like Putin's visit to supply-chain hot spot Vietnam, India's engagement with Russia isn't a good look for the US, as it comes while Washington is isolating Putin's regime.

Advertisement

The US has raised "some concerns" about India's relationship with Russia with New Delhi, Kurt Campbell, the US Deputy Secretary of State, said last month.

However, Washington acknowledges that India's ties with Russia are different from its ties with the US.

"We have many areas of alignment, but it is not surprising that there would be areas where we've had perhaps different perspectives, views, historical ties," Campbell said about America's relationship with India.

India, for its part, is looking to balance its relationship with the world's key powerbrokers — the US, Russia, and China.

Advertisement

"There are different degrees in India's multi-alignment. Make no mistake — the United States and its allies are more consequential for India's future than its relationship with Russia," wrote Shinde.

India needs to leverage its historical ties with Russia to secure its economy and security, so Modi isn't just in Russia for a goodwill trip.

Reducing the trade imbalance

A key agenda item for the visit is to reduce a huge bilateral trade imbalance, said Kwatra.

India imports about $60 billion of goods a year from Russia, but Russia buys less than 10% of this amount from India, per Bloomberg.

Advertisement

Modi may also touch on China's activities in the Indo-Pacific region, said Kwatra.

India is trying to manage its relationship with China, which has been testy since a border dispute in 2020. Modi skipped the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kazakhstan last week.

There's also the matter of Russia's ties with China.

At the summit last week, Putin said Russia's relationship with China is in the "best period in history."

Advertisement

Modi now needs to cozy up to Putin to counter China's advances.

"The reason for the time-tested stability in India-Russia ties is to maintain a continental balance in the Eurasian heartland. That is, to balance China," wrote Shinde.

"Or to put it another way, don't go around making new adversaries when there are already two open fronts — China and Pakistan," Shinde added.

Politics India Russia
Advertisement

Jump to

  1. Main content
  2. Search
  3. Account

How has Russia/ India trade evolved since the start of the war in Ukraine?

India's purchases of Russian oil increased

How has trade level between India and Russia changed under Modi and Putin?

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

India is now a major buyer of Russian oil.

Title:

Content: Homepage

Modi's Russia visit shows India isn't worried about making the US mad

  • In a move likely to anger the US, Modi is visiting Russia.
  • The move signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow, and shows the world India is pursuing its own agenda.
  • Modi is aiming to correct the trade imbalance and address China's Indo-Pacific activities.
Advertisement

In a move likely to anger the US, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Russia on Monday for his first bilateral trip after winning a historic third term in office.

Modi's two-day visit to Russia — where he is scheduled to meet with President Vladimir Putin — is significant in that it signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow. It also shows the world that India is not afraid to pursue its own agenda.

Vinay Kwatra, India's foreign secretary, told reporters in New Delhi that issues between Russia and India have "piled up" and "need to be addressed," per Bloomberg.

Russia's relationship with India goes back to the Cold War, and trade between the two countries has grown since Russia started the war in Ukraine. India is a major buyer of Russian oil. Russia is also India's biggest arms supplier.

Advertisement

Kwatra underscored that the two countries' trade relationship has remained "resilient."

Still, Modi's trip will "rankle many Western observers," Ved Shinde, a researcher and contributor to Australia's Lowy Institute think tank, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

"Since the Ukraine war began, India's purchase of cheap oil from Russia has been seen as profiting from troubles in the heart of Europe," Shinde added.

Modi's visit to Russia will make the US look bad

Just like Putin's visit to supply-chain hot spot Vietnam, India's engagement with Russia isn't a good look for the US, as it comes while Washington is isolating Putin's regime.

Advertisement

The US has raised "some concerns" about India's relationship with Russia with New Delhi, Kurt Campbell, the US Deputy Secretary of State, said last month.

However, Washington acknowledges that India's ties with Russia are different from its ties with the US.

"We have many areas of alignment, but it is not surprising that there would be areas where we've had perhaps different perspectives, views, historical ties," Campbell said about America's relationship with India.

India, for its part, is looking to balance its relationship with the world's key powerbrokers — the US, Russia, and China.

Advertisement

"There are different degrees in India's multi-alignment. Make no mistake — the United States and its allies are more consequential for India's future than its relationship with Russia," wrote Shinde.

India needs to leverage its historical ties with Russia to secure its economy and security, so Modi isn't just in Russia for a goodwill trip.

Reducing the trade imbalance

A key agenda item for the visit is to reduce a huge bilateral trade imbalance, said Kwatra.

India imports about $60 billion of goods a year from Russia, but Russia buys less than 10% of this amount from India, per Bloomberg.

Advertisement

Modi may also touch on China's activities in the Indo-Pacific region, said Kwatra.

India is trying to manage its relationship with China, which has been testy since a border dispute in 2020. Modi skipped the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kazakhstan last week.

There's also the matter of Russia's ties with China.

At the summit last week, Putin said Russia's relationship with China is in the "best period in history."

Advertisement

Modi now needs to cozy up to Putin to counter China's advances.

"The reason for the time-tested stability in India-Russia ties is to maintain a continental balance in the Eurasian heartland. That is, to balance China," wrote Shinde.

"Or to put it another way, don't go around making new adversaries when there are already two open fronts — China and Pakistan," Shinde added.

Politics India Russia
Advertisement

Jump to

  1. Main content
  2. Search
  3. Account

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

How has Russia/ India trade evolved since the start of the war in Ukraine?

India's purchases of Russian oil increased

How has trade level between India and Russia changed under Modi and Putin?

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Modi is engaging more with Putin to balance China’s advances.

Title:

Content: Homepage

Modi's Russia visit shows India isn't worried about making the US mad

  • In a move likely to anger the US, Modi is visiting Russia.
  • The move signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow, and shows the world India is pursuing its own agenda.
  • Modi is aiming to correct the trade imbalance and address China's Indo-Pacific activities.
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In a move likely to anger the US, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Russia on Monday for his first bilateral trip after winning a historic third term in office.

Modi's two-day visit to Russia — where he is scheduled to meet with President Vladimir Putin — is significant in that it signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow. It also shows the world that India is not afraid to pursue its own agenda.

Vinay Kwatra, India's foreign secretary, told reporters in New Delhi that issues between Russia and India have "piled up" and "need to be addressed," per Bloomberg.

Russia's relationship with India goes back to the Cold War, and trade between the two countries has grown since Russia started the war in Ukraine. India is a major buyer of Russian oil. Russia is also India's biggest arms supplier.

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Kwatra underscored that the two countries' trade relationship has remained "resilient."

Still, Modi's trip will "rankle many Western observers," Ved Shinde, a researcher and contributor to Australia's Lowy Institute think tank, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

"Since the Ukraine war began, India's purchase of cheap oil from Russia has been seen as profiting from troubles in the heart of Europe," Shinde added.

Modi's visit to Russia will make the US look bad

Just like Putin's visit to supply-chain hot spot Vietnam, India's engagement with Russia isn't a good look for the US, as it comes while Washington is isolating Putin's regime.

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The US has raised "some concerns" about India's relationship with Russia with New Delhi, Kurt Campbell, the US Deputy Secretary of State, said last month.

However, Washington acknowledges that India's ties with Russia are different from its ties with the US.

"We have many areas of alignment, but it is not surprising that there would be areas where we've had perhaps different perspectives, views, historical ties," Campbell said about America's relationship with India.

India, for its part, is looking to balance its relationship with the world's key powerbrokers — the US, Russia, and China.

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"There are different degrees in India's multi-alignment. Make no mistake — the United States and its allies are more consequential for India's future than its relationship with Russia," wrote Shinde.

India needs to leverage its historical ties with Russia to secure its economy and security, so Modi isn't just in Russia for a goodwill trip.

Reducing the trade imbalance

A key agenda item for the visit is to reduce a huge bilateral trade imbalance, said Kwatra.

India imports about $60 billion of goods a year from Russia, but Russia buys less than 10% of this amount from India, per Bloomberg.

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Modi may also touch on China's activities in the Indo-Pacific region, said Kwatra.

India is trying to manage its relationship with China, which has been testy since a border dispute in 2020. Modi skipped the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kazakhstan last week.

There's also the matter of Russia's ties with China.

At the summit last week, Putin said Russia's relationship with China is in the "best period in history."

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Modi now needs to cozy up to Putin to counter China's advances.

"The reason for the time-tested stability in India-Russia ties is to maintain a continental balance in the Eurasian heartland. That is, to balance China," wrote Shinde.

"Or to put it another way, don't go around making new adversaries when there are already two open fronts — China and Pakistan," Shinde added.

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Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India aims to avoid conflict on additional fronts, especially with adversaries China and Pakistan.

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Modi's Russia visit shows India isn't worried about making the US mad

  • In a move likely to anger the US, Modi is visiting Russia.
  • The move signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow, and shows the world India is pursuing its own agenda.
  • Modi is aiming to correct the trade imbalance and address China's Indo-Pacific activities.
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In a move likely to anger the US, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Russia on Monday for his first bilateral trip after winning a historic third term in office.

Modi's two-day visit to Russia — where he is scheduled to meet with President Vladimir Putin — is significant in that it signals strong ties between Delhi and Moscow. It also shows the world that India is not afraid to pursue its own agenda.

Vinay Kwatra, India's foreign secretary, told reporters in New Delhi that issues between Russia and India have "piled up" and "need to be addressed," per Bloomberg.

Russia's relationship with India goes back to the Cold War, and trade between the two countries has grown since Russia started the war in Ukraine. India is a major buyer of Russian oil. Russia is also India's biggest arms supplier.

Advertisement

Kwatra underscored that the two countries' trade relationship has remained "resilient."

Still, Modi's trip will "rankle many Western observers," Ved Shinde, a researcher and contributor to Australia's Lowy Institute think tank, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

"Since the Ukraine war began, India's purchase of cheap oil from Russia has been seen as profiting from troubles in the heart of Europe," Shinde added.

Modi's visit to Russia will make the US look bad

Just like Putin's visit to supply-chain hot spot Vietnam, India's engagement with Russia isn't a good look for the US, as it comes while Washington is isolating Putin's regime.

Advertisement

The US has raised "some concerns" about India's relationship with Russia with New Delhi, Kurt Campbell, the US Deputy Secretary of State, said last month.

However, Washington acknowledges that India's ties with Russia are different from its ties with the US.

"We have many areas of alignment, but it is not surprising that there would be areas where we've had perhaps different perspectives, views, historical ties," Campbell said about America's relationship with India.

India, for its part, is looking to balance its relationship with the world's key powerbrokers — the US, Russia, and China.

Advertisement

"There are different degrees in India's multi-alignment. Make no mistake — the United States and its allies are more consequential for India's future than its relationship with Russia," wrote Shinde.

India needs to leverage its historical ties with Russia to secure its economy and security, so Modi isn't just in Russia for a goodwill trip.

Reducing the trade imbalance

A key agenda item for the visit is to reduce a huge bilateral trade imbalance, said Kwatra.

India imports about $60 billion of goods a year from Russia, but Russia buys less than 10% of this amount from India, per Bloomberg.

Advertisement

Modi may also touch on China's activities in the Indo-Pacific region, said Kwatra.

India is trying to manage its relationship with China, which has been testy since a border dispute in 2020. Modi skipped the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kazakhstan last week.

There's also the matter of Russia's ties with China.

At the summit last week, Putin said Russia's relationship with China is in the "best period in history."

Advertisement

Modi now needs to cozy up to Putin to counter China's advances.

"The reason for the time-tested stability in India-Russia ties is to maintain a continental balance in the Eurasian heartland. That is, to balance China," wrote Shinde.

"Or to put it another way, don't go around making new adversaries when there are already two open fronts — China and Pakistan," Shinde added.

Politics India Russia
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Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India has emphasized further cooperation with Russia in trade, energy, and defense sectors.

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Content: Opinion

Treading a fine line

Ajit Doval’s high-stake visits to Russia and the US are reflective of India’s consistent efforts to balance ties with the rival superpowers; writes Vinay Kumar

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India’s security and strategic interests on important global platforms have been in focus over the last month as National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval made hectic trips to the US and Russia.

Doval headed to the United States in late January and held a meeting with his US counterpart, Jake Sullivan. Earlier this month, he paid a visit to Russia where he joined top security officials from China, Iran and a number of Central Asian states to participate in a multilateral meeting on Afghanistan.

NSA’s recent visits to the world’s most important political capitals underlined the importance that India attaches to striking a delicate balance in its relations with both the countries at a time when global security and geopolitical environment appear uncertain. His visits to Washington DC and Moscow show India’s priorities in forging vital initiatives.

In Washington, the two NSAs agreed upon a number of important arrangements under the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) which was launched in 2022 and has the potential to have a transformative impact on India’s partnership with the US in areas like military, science & technology and key high-tech fields.

Considering the fact that Russia and the US have been at loggerheads, more so in the wake of the Ukraine War which has completed one year, Doval’s trip assumes significance. The icing on the cake was that the NSA also had one-on-one meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a rare instance of President Putin meeting a top-ranking official from India. His meeting with Doval also pointed towards the continued importance which both sides accord to each other in taking forward their engagement. At a time when Russia continues to face confrontation with the West over the war in Ukraine, Doval’s meeting with President Putin carries a special context. India, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has lent its voice to the peace-making efforts in Ukraine, stressing that today’s era is not an era of war. In his telephonic conversation with President Putin last September, PM Modi voiced his concern, stressing upon the need to take the path of diplomacy and dialogue, a stance often reiterated at various global forums at the highest level.

While India, having to put up with the Chinese threat, has warmed up to the US, it has also taken pains to maintain its relationship with Russia; though Moscow, facing increased isolation in the global community over the war in Ukraine, does not appear to be too pleased with the initiatives surrounding the Indo-Pacific, with the active involvement of the US and further deepening of strategic defence and technological ties between New Delhi and Washington. India has also stressed upon furthering its cooperation with Russia in sectors such as trade, energy and defence.

With the US, under the iCET initiative, India is poised to forge closer cooperation in the areas of Artificial Intelligence (AI), 6G, quantum technologies etc. Other focus areas include defence innovation, technology cooperation and semiconductor supply chains. Doval stressed upon the need to pin down the deliverables in these key focus areas to ensure that no slip-ups or laxity creeps in. Co-production and technology development have left much to be desired, though India is now billed as a major defence partner of the US

The NSA’s discussions in Washington DC and Moscow also point towards India’s keen desire to safeguard its key interests, make advances in high-tech areas and, at the same time, be ready to hold on to its independent position and avoid landing in confrontationist stance, so far as the two rival powers are concerned, as new dynamics is emerging rather rapidly in the geopolitical arena.

Views expressed are personal

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How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

How has trade level between India and Russia changed under Modi and Putin?

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

What do Putin and Modi officially characterize Russia/ India relationship as?

Both sides consider this a significant turning point in relations.

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Content: Why the US needs India more than India needs the US?

New Delhi, India Written By: Manoj GuptaUpdated: Jun 18, 2023, 09:35 PM IST

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with US President Joe Biden Photograph:(Reuters)

Story highlights

The enchanting bond between India and the United States has blossomed in the vibrant tapestry of recent times. These two nations have transcended the shadows of Cold War-era mistrust. Their shared journey is now adorned with a dazzling array of vibrant threads, as they embark on a waltz of robust collaboration in defence, trade, technology, and climate action, painting the world with a captivating symphony of progress and camaraderie.

The White House faces many challenges from Putin to Trump & Xi Jinping to Kim Jong-un. But among the Oval Office's concern is the Indian Prime Minister's charisma. Last month during the Quad meeting in Japan, Biden confessed to Modi that 'I am getting phone calls from people, I have never heard of before. Everyone from movie stars to relatives.'

In a fast-fragmenting world fraught with geopolitical instability, both Modi and Biden have demonstrated a mutual desire to draw their countries closer. But it is Washington which needs New Delhi firmly in its embrace. Aside from the pomp & pageantry Modi's State visit to the US highlights the trajectory of India-US relations which has witnessed a significant shift, marked by a burgeoning partnership built on mutual respect and shared objectives.

India's big no to NATO entry offer

Times have changed. Such is New Delhi's stature today, that the US wants it to be part of the world's most coveted security alliance i.e. NATO Plus, but India's reply was prompt: Thanks, but no thanks. Modi administration feels that joining the Western military powers would hinder its independent diplomatic manoeuvres.

Kargil War and the Bangladesh Liberation War have played pivotal roles in shaping India-US relations. In 1999 when Pakistan's troops took vantage positions in the high Himalayan mountains, Indian armed forces wanted the GPS data of the conflict zone. But the Americans ditched. A quarter century later India is self-reliant, it has developed NavIC, an indigenous GPS. India turned an obstacle into an opportunity.

Many Western critics question New Delhi's nuanced stance over the Russia-Ukraine war. 'Today's era must not be of war', that's Prime Minister Narendra Modi's message to Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the West isn't impressed with India's oil imports from Russia.

But turning the pages of history could reveal the reasons. In 1971, when Pakistan's military was being hammered in East Pakistan, US President Richard Nixon ordered the US Seventh Fleet, led by the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Enterprise, to proceed towards the Bay of Bengal. The intent was clear to back Islamabad and put pressure on New Delhi. But it was the Soviet Union which stood against the US belligerence and thwarted the move to help Pakistan.

Today the US is singing all praise for the world's largest democracy. There are its own interests when the Biden administration growing willingness to share advanced technologies with India. A significant turning point in bilateral relations. The United States recognises India's potential as a strategic ally, a bulwark against the Chinese.

India: Rise of a new global geopolitical power

The balance of power and influence between the two countries has shifted over time, especially in the twenty-first century. India has emerged as a leading global power and a vital partner for the United States in safeguarding the Indo-Pacific region from China’s growing assertiveness and aggression. India has also diversified its foreign policy and strategic partnerships with other countries, such as Russia, Japan, Australia, France, and Israel, to enhance its autonomy and leverage in the international arena.

From estrangement to engagement

The transformation of India-US defence ties over the past decade is remarkable, given their history of estrangement and suspicion. During the Cold War, India pursued a policy of non-alignment, while the United States aligned with Pakistan and China against the Soviet Union. The two countries also had differences over issues such as nuclear proliferation, human rights, and regional conflicts.

Watch | Narendra Modi`s US Visit: A watershed moment for India-US ties

A paradigm shift: Sharing technologies

Today, the United States has exhibited a growing willingness to share advanced technologies with India. This marks a significant turning point in bilateral relations. The United States recognises India's potential as a strategic ally and has extended its hand in fostering technological collaboration. The two countries have signed a series of landmark agreements that have enhanced their defence cooperation, such as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (2016), which enables mutual access to each other's military facilities; the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (2018), which facilitates secure communication and transfer of high-end technology; and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (2020), which allows sharing of geospatial data and intelligence. The two countries have launched a new initiative to work together on cutting-edge technologies such as AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, semiconductors, 6G telecommunications and cyber security.

The road ahead for India-US relations

Clearly the remarkable transformation of the US-India relationship from a distant and distrustful one to a close and cooperative one and Prime Minister Modi's US visit will only bolster it. The US needs India more than India needs the US, not only because of the strategic significance of the Indo-Pacific region, but also because of the shared commitment to a free, open, and democratic world order. India, on the other hand, can benefit from the US's support and cooperation in enhancing its economic, technological, and social development.

Moreover, India is also a prominent voice for the global South, championing the causes of justice, equity, and sustainability for the developing world. The US and India can be natural allies and partners in creating a more peaceful and prosperous world for themselves and others.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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India is rising as a new global geopolitical power.

They issued a joint statement expressing deep concern over the situation in the Middle East, especially Gaza, and called for the immediate release of hostages and humanitarian access.

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Content: India, Russia express deep concern on situation in Middle East

Moscow: India and Russia have expressed “deep concern” on the situation in the Middle East, with a particular focus on Gaza and called for immediate and unconditional release of all hostages.

The joint Statement following the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit said the two sides called for the effective implementation of the relevant United Nations General Assembly resolutions and United Nations Security Council resolution 2720 and for immediate safe and unhindered delivery of humanitarian assistance in the Gaza Strip.

In the joint statement, India and Russia said, “The Sides expressed deep concern on the situation in the Middle East, with a particular focus on Gaza. In this regard, they called for the effective implementation of the relevant UNGA resolutions and UNSC resolution 2720 and for immediate safe and unhindered delivery of humanitarian assistance at scale directly to the Palestinian civilian population throughout the Gaza Strip.”

“They also called for the effective implementation of the UNSC resolution 2728 for a lasting and sustainable ceasefire. They equally called for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages as well as humanitarian access to address their medical and other humanitarian needs,” it added.

The two nations affirmed their support for Palestine’s full membership in the United Nations and reiterated their commitment to the principle of the two-state solution.

The joint statement reads, “They reaffirmed their support for Palestine’s full membership in the United Nations and reiterated their unwavering commitment to the principle of the two-state solution according to internationally accepted basis.”

The conflict in Gaza escalated after the October 7 attack by Hamas, where about 2,500 terrorists breached the border into Israel from the Gaza Strip, leading to casualties and the seizure of hostages.

Israel has since, characterised its Gaza offensive as targeting Hamas’ infrastructure with the goal to eliminate the entire terror group while making efforts to minimize civilian casualties.

The statement was issued after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks in Moscow.

India and Russia agreed to strengthen joint efforts to build an architecture of equal and indivisible regional security and to intensify consultations on complementarities between integration and development initiatives in Greater Eurasian space and the regions of the Indian and Pacific oceans.

The joint statement further said, “The Sides underlined the importance of strengthening cooperation within various regional fora, aimed at deepening regional peace and security, including East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum on Security (ARF), ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus).”

The two nations noted the importance of expanding efforts to combat climate change and achieving the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement.

The joint statement reads, “The Sides noted the importance of expanding efforts to combat climate change and achieving the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement.”

“In this regard, the Sides agreed to develop cooperation in the field of preventing climate change and adapting to it, including the exchange of experience on the organization and operation of greenhouse gas emission quota systems, the implementation of joint Russian-Indian investment projects in the field of low-carbon development, as well as sustainable and “green” financing,” it added.

The two nations agreed to continue interaction within G20, BRICS, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on key issues like increasing the sustainability and developing resiliency of international supply chains, compliance with free and fair trade rules and climate change, according to the joint statement.

India and Russia welcomed the launch of the BRICS Contact Group on Climate Change and Sustainable Development within the framework of the Environment Working Group under the Russian Chairship in BRICS in 2024.

During his visit to Russia, PM Modi held talks with Russian President Putin. The two leaders also visited the Rosatom Pavilion at the VDNKh Exhibition Centre in Moscow.

PM Modi was ceremoniously presented with the Order of St Andrew the Apostle the First-Called, Russia’s highest civilian honour, by Putin.

Notably, the award was bestowed on PM Modi in 2019, but he received it physically on Tuesday. The Prime Minister was presented with this award for his distinguished contribution to the development of a privileged strategic partnership between Russia and India and friendly ties between the two countries.

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India and Russia also stressed the importance of combating climate change and meeting the goals of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement.

What formal frameworks do India and Russia cooperate within?

During his Russia visit, PM Modi held talks with President Putin.

What formal frameworks do India and Russia cooperate within?

Modi’s foreign policy is being closely watched by foreign capitals.

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Content: Monday, Oct 31, 2022

Why foreign capitals are taking note of Modi government’s foreign policy

As the world's fifth largest economy with the third largest defence budget, India’s material capabilities gives it an opportunity to influence the international order. South Block has been aligning the national political will with new international possibilities.

Under previous governments, Delhi was often tempted to limit its relationship with the US and Europe for fear of offending the sensitivities of Moscow and Beijing. (Illustration by C R Sasikumar)

International approbation for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s independent foreign policy is coming thick and fast. Despite the presumed Indian love for external validation, the new compliments from abroad are unlikely to swell the chests in South Block.

India’s mandarins know that foreign leaders are not in the business of giving free praise. Most of the time, compliments say more about the state offering them rather than the one receiving it. Last week, Imran Khan was at it again, commending India’s foreign policy as he launched the promised “long march” from Lahore to Islamabad.

Khan pointed to Delhi’s continuing purchase of oil from global markets while Islamabad is unable to do so. Recall that Imran Khan had pushed for oil and grain purchases from Russia before he was ousted from power in April just weeks after Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine. Beyond oil purchases, praising India is less about foreign policy than attacking what he calls the “imported government” of Pakistan. Khan had accused the Joe Biden Administration of a “conspiracy” to dethrone him because of his effort to pursue an independent foreign policy. Imran’s attack on the US conspiracy is directed at the army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who withdrew his patronage to Khan and facilitated the election of Shehbaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League as the new prime minister.

Notwithstanding his seemingly revolutionary rhetoric, Imran Khan is not an ideological opponent of the US. After returning from a meeting with President Donald Trump in 2019, Khan was rather chuffed with himself. On his return to Islamabad, Khan had declared that he felt like he had “won the (cricket) world cup again”.

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Last week also saw the UAE’s minister for artificial intelligence, Omar Sultan Al Olama, praise External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s stewardship of Indian diplomacy for deftly navigating the recent geopolitical headwinds. That the UAE is now talking about “not choosing sides” is certainly interesting. The Gulf kingdoms like the UAE and Saudi Arabia have long relied on the United States for their security. But the recent US moves to revive the nuclear deal with Iran have generated much unease among the Gulf Arabs.

The Biden Administration’s rough handling of the Saudi Crown prince on human rights issues has made it harder for Riyadh to oblige Washington on the question of isolating Russia in the oil market amidst the war in Ukraine. The determination of the Gulf countries to put their own interests first is a reminder to the major powers that foreign policy in the end is about give and take and not a one-sided relationship even between the powerful and not-so-powerful.

Addressing an international gathering last week, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, offered handsome personal praise to PM Modi and his independent foreign policy. Russia, of course, has not been too happy with India’s deepening ties with the US, but Putin recognises that there is a new paradigm in India’s foreign policy — Delhi now has the confidence to do its own thing.

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That is not always obvious from what the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, says. Just a few months after the Chinese aggression in Ladakh in 2020, Lavrov had a condescending take on India’s China policy. Lavrov accused Western powers of pursuing an “aggressive and devious” policy to draw India into “anti-China games” by promoting the Indo-Pacific strategy. A spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs in Delhi was quick to dismiss Lavrov’s mischievous line by underlining India’s independent foreign policy and expanding on India’s own approach to the Indo-Pacific.

The idea of an “innocent India” being hijacked by the “evil West” has been a popular trope not only in the discourse on India-Russia relations but also in Sino-Indian relations. Many in Delhi were long willing to suspend their disbelief in accepting the argument that India and China would get along happily forever but for “Western manipulation”. Delhi and Beijing don’t need third parties to create trouble between them — there is enough natural friction between the two large Asian giants that are also neighbours. Their unresolved boundary dispute has always been the biggest source of the conflict between the two. Over the decades additional problems have cropped up, including the Chinese strategic expansion into the Subcontinent and the Indian Ocean as well as massive trade deficits.

Today’s India might be accused of many things, but not “strategic innocence”. It is pursuing great power relations, with each on its own merit. It is not willing to cede a veto to any power over its relations with its rivals. Delhi does not let Moscow define India’s relations with the US: Similarly, Delhi can’t let Washington limit the character of India’s engagement with Russia. This was not always the case.

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Under previous governments, Delhi was often tempted to limit its relationship with the US and Europe for fear of offending the sensitivities of Moscow and Beijing. This was done either in the name of ideology or the fear that there will be unpleasant consequences in relations with Russia and China. The Modi government has broken out of that defensive and deferential mindset. Putting national interests above political correctness has given much strategic dividend for Delhi.

It has been evident for quite a while that a rising India has greater room for global manoeuvre. As the fifth-largest economy with the third largest defence budget, India’s material capabilities make it an increasingly attractive partner to others and give it an opportunity to shape the international system. But they did not automatically translate into strategic gains.

PM Modi’s real contribution has been in aligning the national political will with new international possibilities. India’s new diplomacy is not about doing whatever you like or saying what you please. It is about a careful judgement of the shifting global correlation of forces and the skill to adapt to the dynamic international environment.

Translating the objective possibilities generated by India’s rise into tangible strategic outcomes is what Indian diplomacy is beginning to get good at amidst extremely challenging external circumstances — including the Covid pandemic, the Chinese aggression and the war in Ukraine. Notwithstanding external encomiums, South Block knows that coping with this unstable world remains a relentless challenge.

The writer is senior fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute, Delhi and contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express

First published on: 01-11-2022 at 04:28:15 am
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After Chinese aggression in Ladakh in 2020, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov had a critical view of India’s China policy.

India is unwilling to allow any power to veto its relationships with rivals.

Earlier governments were cautious of upsetting Moscow and Beijing, but today India exercises greater global maneuverability.

India is aligning more with the US and allies, driven by economic and technological goals and larger global aspirations.

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Content: ISSN 2330-717X

India Rethinks Ties With China – Analysis

By

By B R Deepak*

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The rise of China triggered a regional power shift that has been felt across East Asia and into the Himalayas. As China changes the status quo of the Indo-Pacific, it talks of promoting a multipolar world. But in practice it has a problem with multipolar Asia and is unwilling to accommodate India’s interests. In response to this, India is aligning itself more closely with the United States and its allies.

When evaluating India’s policy choices in East Asia, history cannot be overlooked. India–China rapprochement in the late 1970s, amid the Cold War and the rise of globalisation, saw the two countries grow closer. Their budding relationship found common ground in being at the same stage of development.

It was through this parity that a series of confidence-building measures (CBMs) were signed, enabling India and China to normalise and diversify their relationship into other areas. They became part of various multilateral mechanisms such as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, East Asia Summit and the BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

Trade flourished and Chinese investment in India’s telecom, electronics, solar and, most notably, digital sectors increased by leaps and bounds. While India had a twinge of envy for China’s rise, it saw opportunities for win–win cooperation. Yet over the past two decades, India has become increasingly wary of the dangers of widening economic, military and technological asymmetries between the two countries.

The power shift in Asia has resulted in Chinese behavioural changes. With its growing regional power, China has felt less compulsion to abide by the CBMs. It has started flexing its muscles along the disputed border regions between India and China, resulting in bloodshed and prolonged standoffs.

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Until very recently, India acted like a ‘swing state’ between major powers in the region and avoided taking sides. This can be gleaned from India’s initial lukewarm reception to the idea of the Quad. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s keynote address at the 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore wished for India and China to ‘work together in trust and confidence, sensitive to each other’s interests’.

Many believe it was the 2017 border standoff in Doklam that pushed India to rethink its involvement in the Quad. If that is the case, the 2020 border clash in Galwan likely played a decisive role in India’s move to incorporate the Quad and the Indo-Pacific Strategy into its military and foreign policy.

It is unsurprising that Chinese scholars now see India’s ‘Act East Policy’ and other sub-regional and multilateral mechanisms as subservient to the Indo-Pacific strategy. These multilaterals include the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, the Security and Growth for All in the Region vision and the Indian Ocean Rim Association — many of which are designed to counterbalance China’s growing influence.

Whether or not these mechanisms serve the goals of the Indo-Pacific strategy, India has indeed shifted its gaze away from China and towards Southeast Asia to initiate connectivity projects. One of them — the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway — has been extended to run through Cambodia and Vietnam and is expected to be completed by 2023

India supports the idea of ‘ASEAN centrality’ and envisages a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific region built on a rules-based international order. This obvious rebalancing has enhanced India’s security cooperation with the United States and other regional middle powers. The institutionalisation of the India–US 2+2 dialogue, the Quad, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and the US–India Malabar exercises point to this growing cooperation.

The growing India–US partnership has riled China. Some Chinese scholars have claimed that India refuses to support the ‘One China Policy’ over the Kashmir issue, which is home to a long-standing territorial dispute between India and China. But the late Indian minister of external affairs Sushma Swaraj has also called upon China to respect its own ‘One India Policy’.

Compared to China, India is relatively weak in economic and political power. In 2021, China–ASEAN trade accounted for US$878.2 billion, outstripping India–ASEAN trade, which stood at US$78 billion. But East Asian countries have always been positively inclined towards India’s engagement in the region, though most do not support India’s self-proclaimed role as a ‘net security provider’ — a role that they believe should be reserved for the United States.

China believes that India’s Act East Policy ‘will allow India to intervene’ and ‘warm up’ to other countries on issues surrounding the South China Sea. This may become a drag on China–ASEAN relations in future. But China will not cede the space it once did before its rise.

Similar anxieties have been expressed by India over China’s attempts to increase its footprints in the Indian Ocean. The docking of the Yuan Wang 5 — a Chinese ‘spy ship’ — at Hambantota, Sri Lanka, was particularly concerning for India.

In the face of a prolonged standoff on the India–China border and the growing US–China rivalry, India finds itself leaning more towards the United States and its allies. India sees this as best for its economic and technological advancement and for the realisation of its larger global aspirations.

*About the author: B R Deepak is Professor of Chinese and China Studies at the Centre of Chinese and Southeast Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

Source: This article was published by East Asia Forum

East Asia Forum

East Asia Forum is a platform for analysis and research on politics, economics, business, law, security, international relations and society relevant to public policy, centred on the Asia Pacific region. It consists of an online publication and a quarterly magazine, East Asia Forum Quarterly, which aim to provide clear and original analysis from the leading minds in the region and beyond.

What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

India opted out of RCEP due to China's expected unfair advantage.

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Content:
In the shifting sands of geopolitics, several changes in the past few weeks would make agile diplomacy the key instrument of foreign affairs for any country. First up is the difficult, India-US-Russia tightrope trick. Russia last week announced their new foreign policy, which emphasises the deepening of ties with strategic allies India and China. The Russian NSA and his Indian counterpart also got into a huddle on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, NSA-level meeting, to discuss expanding the bilateral defence partnership. It now emerges that the two sides could have discussed expanding the partnership for joint research and manufacturing of next-generation supersonic BrahMos missile systems.

Russia seems to have greater technological know-how for the development of this high-speed (at least five times faster than the speed of sound with higher degrees of manoeuvrability) missiles, ahead of both China and US. Meanwhile, India is all set to enhance its naval capabilities including its ability for defending its sea frontiers, from the recent acquisition of superior technology helicopters, missiles and torpedoes capable of taking down submarines, from the US. The initial reluctance from the US to have India as a strategic defence partner in the Indo-Pacific region now seems to have given way to a pragmatic approach, keeping in mind India’s strategic defence needs, and its centrality to the Indo-Pacific.

The Indo-Pacific region, at one point in time, relegated to appendix sections of Washington’s foreign policy books, has found complete bipartisan support from opposite ends of the political spectrum in US politics. The imminent threat is the rising heft of China in the region, which has assumed the role of being the biggest bully, having clawed into some of the most influential national economies in the region. Most of the influence China wields in the Indo-Pacific rides on its opaque infrastructure funding policies, which have forced many of these growth-hungry economies to fall into a fatal debt trap. These economic blunders in turn give China the upper hand to start influencing the nation’s domestic politics, which goes well with the dragon’s expansionist agenda.

However, the US has taken note and brokered a peace truce between Japan and South Korea, the two technology-aided Asian giants. These two countries, even though not too warm to each other due to historical reasons, are joined in the common threat of an aggressive China in their backyard. The US knows that any future dominance in the global world order would be defined by technological advancements, and the ability to integrate technology into their defence equipment. Every breakthrough, every new use case and standard set, for emerging technology such as Artificial Intelligence would be critical for the race to the top.

It has already operationalised the US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging technologies, to expand the existing defence industrial partnership and strategic technology partnership to a wider set of stakeholders. Meanwhile, discussions regarding supply chain resilience, expansion and cooperation, on new technology form the pillars for all QUAD discussions, which has the US, India, Japan and Australia, as its members. The US is also aggressively pushing countries in South and South-Southeast Asia into a like-minded bloc of partners through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework initiative, where India is also a founding member. China meanwhile has also managed to stitch together one of the largest free trade agreements in the world, through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, giving it market access to most of the economies in the region. India chose to sit out of RCEP, citing the unfair advantage accrued to China.

Against this backdrop, the guns are still blazing in eastern provinces of Ukraine. Many expect China and India to play the silent backroom boys role to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia. It is going to be volatile situations ahead for every country.

China remains a key factor in India-US relations and in India's position as an alternative in the global supply chain.

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Content: Modi in US: Why Washington is rolling out the red carpet for Indian PM

·7 min read

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the US has assumed huge significance amid global economic and geopolitical headwinds.

The White House is pulling out all the stops to welcome Mr Modi - it's a state visit, the highest level of diplomatic protocol the US accords to visiting leaders. Mr Modi will be given a ceremonial welcome at the White House on Thursday before he holds direct talks with President Joe Biden.

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Then there is the state dinner, a meeting with CEOs, an address to the joint session of the Congress and speeches to Indian-Americans, which have been highlights of Mr Modi's past US visits.

But behind the carefully crafted ceremonies lie discussions that have the potential to not only infuse new energy into India-US relations but also have an impact on the global order.

The Indo-Pacific is where the US possibly needs India's influence more than anywhere else right now.

The US has long viewed India as a counterbalance to China's growing influence in the region, but Delhi has never been fully comfortable with owning the tag.

It may still be reluctant to do so but China continues to be one of the main catalysts driving India-US relations.

But India has not shied away from taking decisions that irk China. It held a military drill with US forces last year in Uttarakhand state, which shares a Himalayan border with China. Delhi has also continued to actively participate in the Quad - which also includes the US, Australia and Japan - despite angry reactions from Beijing.

Indian diplomacy has been getting more assertive about saying that this is the country's moment on the global stage. It has good reason - India is one of the few economic bright spots in the world right now.Geopolitics is also in its favour - most countries want a manufacturing alternative to China, and India also has a huge market with a burgeoning middle class. This makes it a good option for countries and global firms pursuing a China plus one policy.

Tanvi Madan, director of The India Project at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, says that what matters to the US is what India does and not what it publicly says about China.

"At the end of the day, whether or not India has publicly embraced the tag, it is very clear that Indian governments have seen the US relationship as helpful as they deal with China," she said.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center think-tank in Washington, added that the two countries had now started "seeing eye to eye on the broader Indo-Pacific theatre".

"We are starting to see the US recognise the importance of western components of the Indian Ocean region. For many years, India's main concern, for good reason, was the Indian Ocean region. Whereas for the US, it was the Pacific and the South China Sea. They will look at maritime security for the region now," he said.

The joint statement may not mention China directly but it will be high on the agenda as the two leaders discuss ways to consolidate their presence in the Indo-Pacific.

But while they agree on China, the two countries have had differing approaches to the Ukraine war.

Delhi has not directly criticised Russia, which analysts say is largely due to its huge dependency on Russian defence imports and its "time-tested ties" with Moscow.

India relies on Moscow for nearly 50% of its defence needs, but that's not the only reason. India has always taken pride in following its policy of non-alignment - or strategic autonomy, as it has been called in recent years. It doesn't want to be confined to a specific power centre in the global order, which irked Washington diplomats in the early months of the invasion.

But the US has softened its stance in recent months - it has even overlooked India's continuous purchase of crude oil from Russia.

India too has gone a step forward by publicly calling for an end to the war.

Ms Madan added that the different responses to the invasion weren't a deal-breaker in India-US relations.

"When there is strategic convergence, the two countries are incentivised to manage their differences. Maybe not eliminate them, but manage their differences. And I think that has happened with their differing stands on Russia," she said.

Meanwhile, other key areas of discussion include technology, defence and global supply chain management.

The two countries have signed what they call the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology. The deal will allow US and Indian firms and universities in different sectors, including IT, space, defence, artificial intelligence, education and healthcare, to work together.

The leaders may also announce more co-operation in technology, especially in semi-conductor manufacturing where China is the biggest player.

Defence is another area that has emerged as a key point of convergence.

India is the world's biggest arms importer and Russia still accounts for a major chunk of it at 45%, data analysed between 2017 and 2022 suggests. But the headline here is that Moscow's share used to be 65% until 2016 - that's where the US sees an opportunity.

Washington's share has grown but it's still just 11%, behind France's 29%. So some big-ticket defence deals are inevitable - they are likely to announce India's purchase of the battle-tested MQ-9A "Reaper" drones and a deal between GE and Indian state-run firms to manufacture fighter jet engines in India.

Mr Kugelman says defence co-operation between the two nations "has come a long way".

"If you look at the recent track record, one could argue that the treatment the US gives India is not dissimilar from what it gives to many of its allies," he said.

While defence and technology will most likely see some big announcements, the same can't be expected in trade.

The US is now India's top trading partner at $130bn, but analysts say there is still huge untapped potential. The two countries have had major differences over tariffs and export controls.India has signed a free trade agreement with Australia and Dubai and is discussing similar deals with others including Canada, the UK and the EU.No such deal is on the cards this visit but the leaders may discuss or at least lay the ground for solving trade-related issues in the future.

Mr Kugelman said the differences were not discarded but set aside in the interests of more mutually beneficial areas of co-operation.

But he added that trade between Indian and US firms has flourished in recent years despite inter-government differences.

It may not be the top priority but trade will certainly feature when the two leaders discuss global supply chain issues owing to the pandemic and China's monopoly.

"Trade used to be a sore subject but I think the two sides are approaching trade policy differently today. But you can't look at global supply chain issues without eventually discussing trade," Ms Madan said.

The timing of the visit is also interesting as both countries will hold elections next year and the two leaders will be looking at sellable headlines for their domestic audiences.

So some big headline-making deals are inevitable. But then, US-India relations have always been complex - with decades of mistrust followed by rebuilding of trust and then occasional flare-ups.

But Mr Biden seems determined to make India-US relations shine even though some in his country have questioned India's record on human rights under Mr Modi.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's recent statement says a lot about the status of the relationship: "We know that India and the United States are big, complicated countries. We certainly have work to do to advance transparency, to promote market access, to strengthen our democracies, to unleash the full potential of our people. But the trajectory of this partnership is unmistakable and it is filled with promise."

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Read more India stories from the BBC:

The US increasingly values the Indian Ocean, seeing India as integral to regional maritime security.

India and the US have signed an Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology and deepened defense ties.

What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

Global supply chain issues, partially due to China's dominance, will feature in upcoming India-US discussions.

Prime Minister Modi has continued to develop India’s longstanding ties with Russia while balancing growing relations with the United States.

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Why India is walking the tightrope between the US and Russia
12: 56 7 / 6 / 2024
Why India is walking the tightrope between the US and Russia
05.07.2024
After the Cold War, which began in the 1950s, split the world into two camps, the newly independent India became the founder of the Non-Aligned Movement, a group of countries that did not side with either Washington or Moscow.
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India retained some elements of this policy unchanged, while abandoning others.
In particular, Modi has strengthened ties with the United States, in which he sees a partner in the confrontation with a more assertive China.
At the same time, he continued to develop his country ’ s long-standing ties with Russia.
As a sign of Russia ’ s important role for India, Modi will meet with President Vladimir Putin on July 8 during his first foreign visit to a fellow leader after being elected for a third term.
But these relations are becoming increasingly complex as Russia strengthens ties with China, seeking its broader support.
China and India are not allies.
1.
Is India an ally of the United States?
India and the United States have been strategic partners for at least two decades, which means they can build relationships and cooperate militarily, but are not official treaty bound allies.
Although they have much in common – both countries are large and diverse democracies – New Delhi pursues its own interests in ways that sometimes conflict with US interests.
For example, India has refused to condemn Russia in the conflict with Ukraine, while an alleged plot of assassins in the United States has triggered a criminal investigation in which senior Indian officials are implicated, according to prosecutors.
The basis of relations remains the transformation of China into an assertive regional power.
China and India are long-time rivals with a bitter border dispute, and the US is seeking to draw India as a counterweight to Beijing ’ s rise.
India is part of the Quartet, a regional security dialogue with the United States, Japan and Australia.
A group of senior U.S. officials recently visited India to discuss cooperation in technology, security and foreign investment.
2.
What is India ’ s relationship with Russia?
Although India openly declared its non-alignment during the Cold War, it maintained warm relations with Moscow and was wary of the United States, which was closer to India ’ s main rival, Pakistan.
India and Russia maintain strong ties to this day.
The basis of this relationship is India ’ s status as a reliable buyer of Russian arms and crude oil.
Today, Russia remains India ’ s largest arms supplier, although, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, shipments have declined from about two-thirds of India ’ s arms imports more than a decade ago to just over one-third today as India seeks to diversify its sources of arms supplies.
Russia also remains India ’ s largest oil supplier, although sanctions imposed on Russian oil exports have affected Russian oil imports to India.
India also stands out among the leading democracies for its unwillingness to criticize Russia and abstained from voting at the United Nations, which condemned Russia for the conflict in Ukraine.
3.
What is India ’ s relationship with China?
Relations have been tense for years.
The source of tension was a territorial dispute along their common border that lasted decades and over which the two countries fought a war in 1962.
The dispute flared up again in 2020, culminating in a series of deadly skirmishes and prompting New Delhi to ban Chinese smartphone apps and limit Chinese investment in India.
Recently, there have been rumors of a relaxation of tension.
In May, Beijing appointed its first ambassador to India in 18 months.
After his arrival, he expressed a desire to improve relations between the two countries.
China also congratulated Modi on winning the election in June, and a Chinese official said the countries were on a "healthy and stable path."
The two countries agreed on further negotiations to resolve the border dispute.
4.
How are relations between Russia and China changing?
Russia and China have been rivals since the Sino-Soviet split during the Cold War (a rivalry that also brought Russia and India closer together).
But relations have noticeably warmed as both countries united in their opposition to the US-led international order.
The Russian president made his first foreign trip to Beijing after he was re-elected for a third presidential term in March.
At the July summit on security in Kazakhstan, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin said that relations between them are “the best in history, ” and both sides vowed to jointly defend“ calm and stability in the region. ”
China has become another major buyer of Russian oil, gas and coal, helping Russia counter Western sanctions.
5.
How does the United States view relations between India and Russia?
Washington still views India as a bulwark preventing China from spreading its influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
While he has occasionally criticized India for alleged human rights abuses and the treatment of minorities, India ’ s ties with Moscow have come at minimal political cost.
Following a recent visit by senior US officials, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said the US side had raised the issue of India ’ s ties with Russia, as well as accusations of India ’ s involvement in a plot to murder for hire.
But he also said that the United States is confident in its relations with India and wants to expand cooperation between the two countries.
According to some analysts, the US sees India as an important ally in its quest to contain China, so it does not want to risk antagonizing officials in New Delhi.
Prepared by ProFinance.Ru based on Bloomberg materials.
Source - ProFinance.Ru
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India and China are not allies, and India’s rivalry with China continues to shape its foreign policy decisions.

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

China congratulated Modi on his recent election victory, with officials describing Sino-Indian relations as being on a "healthy and stable path," but competition remains significant.

Modi has regularly met with President Putin in forums like the Kremlin and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, even as global power dynamics enter a new era.

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Content: All news
Updated
Russia and India expect to sign agreements on defense, space, transport
Russian Ambassador to India Nikolai Kudashev noted that Moscow and New Delhi are increasingly moving to joint production
NEW DELHI, December 4.
/ TASS /.
The signing of bilateral agreements between Russia and India in the areas of defense, space, transport, science and technology, education and other areas is expected during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India on December 6.
This was stated on Saturday by Russian Ambassador to India Nikolai Kudashev to Russian journalists in New Delhi.
We should expect to reach agreements in such areas as connectivity and transport, science and technology, space, military and military-technical cooperation, culture, and education.
This is far from a complete list, ” the head of the diplomatic mission said.
"As for such a traditionally sensitive area of our relations as military-technical ties, we can expect progress here," Kudashev added.
He noted that Moscow and New Delhi from the relations of "supplier - buyer", are increasingly moving to joint production, joint development and joint development of new promising weapons.
"The Great Political Event"
The Russian Ambassador noted the importance of the upcoming meeting of the leaders of the two countries.
“This will be a great political event, especially in demand now, when the demand for the development of bilateral relations and the formation of a space of trust and cooperation in Eurasia is growing.
We can reasonably expect a major joint political statement following the summit.
It will be a document of great importance, covering almost all sides of bilateral relations - from international cooperation, the UN agenda, the reform of this organization, the settlement of regional crises to progress in the bilateral dimension, "the diplomat said.
He added that this document will voice the traditional values of bilateral relations between Moscow and New Delhi.
"This is respect for the central role of the UN, commitment to multipolarity, preservation of strategic stability, joint contribution to the fight against new challenges and threats, interest in continuing interaction and consolidation on such platforms as BRICS, SCO, RIC, G20, and, of course, a significant bilateral agenda," Kudashev said.

What formal frameworks do India and Russia cooperate within?

India’s foreign policy approach has evolved in the context of declining U.S. global influence and shifting alliances.

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22: 25 "And did I give him..."
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22: 20 In the war to blame Russian offshore oligarchy – Glazyev
22: 18 KazChess player Bibisara Asaubaeva became a two-time world champion in blitz
20: 22 Hollande confirmed Merkel ’ s words about how they fooled “Minsk ” Putin
19: 53 556 civil servants in Atyrau region tried to hide their incomes
18: 21 Timur Ishmetov dismissed from the post of the head of the Ministry of Finance, Tashkulov left UzbMinvuz
17: 05 New composition of the government of Uzbekistan announced
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16: 14 Disruptions of local significance: what led to the explosions in Ukrainian cities
14: 50 Will the reduction of ministries and civil servants lead to a decrease in corruption in Uzbekistan, - Kodir Kuliyev
14: 46 The West has promised the emergence of a new world currency
13: 58 The new war for Kosovo was canceled only for a while, - Dmitry Bavyrin
12: 46 Energy crisis in Tajikistan: deficit persists
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12: 32 In Uzbekistan, the new foreign Minister - Norov was replaced by Saidov
11: 39 The rector was fired at once 4 uzb-universities
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09: 16 Tokayev directly subordinated the "mobile fist" - KazDesant (where was he in January?)
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19: 16 Unknown Prosecutor Lastayev Becomes Chief Ombudsman of Kazakhstan
19: 13 Elvira Azimova appointed chairman of the Constitutional Court of Kazakhstan
16: 01 Tokayev announced a reshuffle in the government of Kazakhstan
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The Economist: A New Era in Geopolitics.
The American “world order ” is on the verge of collapse.
04: 06 12 / 31 / 2022
The Economist
United Kingdom
December 31, 2022
A New Era in Geopolitics
Russia ’ s special operation in Ukraine and China ’ s military buildup herald a new era of rivalry between major powers.
This transformation comes at a time when America ’ s weight and influence in the global economy is declining.
President Joe Biden calls this decade “crucial. ”
But this characterization only partially reflects the current moment, which is the beginning of a new era.
In this era, Russia and China will strive to destroy the world order formed by America.
“Great power rivalry ” is too soft a characterization against the background of Russia ’ s destruction of Ukraine.
And the “new cold war ” is too simplistic, given the complex economic interdependence of the West and China.
The Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict has destroyed the norms that emerged after World War II, according to which borders cannot be changed by force.
It has awakened the ghosts of nuclear confrontation for the first time since the end of the Cold War, but with one distinctive feature: Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons not as a last resort, but as an initial gambit in his military campaign.
But Russia is only an “acute problem ”, as America sees it.
A more serious threat to the world order comes from China, the only country in the world that is capable of toppling America from the pedestal of the world ’ s dominant power.
The Pentagon calls this a “defining threat. ”
The Chinese military is growing rapidly.
China already has the world ’ s largest navy, the world ’ s third-largest air force, and a huge arsenal of missiles and weapons of war in space and cyberspace.
What if the “limitless ” friendship between Russia and China turns into a real alliance?
Now there is little evidence that China is helping Russia in the conduct of military operations.
But these Eurasian autocracies regularly conduct military exercises, and senior U.S. officials believe the two countries will inevitably converge.
By 2035, China will increase its nuclear arsenal to about 1,500 warheads, approaching the number of American and Russian arsenals.
In this situation, the United States will have to develop a new concept of trilateral nuclear deterrence.
This, in turn, could lead to a new arms race, especially if START III, which expires in early 2026, is not renewed.
This transformation comes at a time when America ’ s weight and influence in the global economy is declining.
In the past century, U.S. GDP has significantly exceeded the gross domestic product of U.S. rivals Germany and Japan in World War II and the Soviet Union and China during the Cold War.
But now China ’ s GDP is not far behind the US (and already exceeds it, if you count in terms of purchasing power parity).
U.S. military spending is colossal in absolute terms, but close to a historical minimum as a share of GDP.
The situation is beginning to change as Congress on December 23 approved a volume of military spending that is significantly larger than what Biden asked for.
Heartland v. Rimland
Old geopolitical theories are being revised.
In 1904, British geographer and strategist Halford Mackinder declared that whoever controls the core of Eurasia, that is, the geographical space from the Arctic Ocean to the Himalayas, would dominate the world.
Based on this analysis, the alliance between Russia and China poses a terrible threat.
The American contemporary of Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan, on the contrary, believed that the key to world domination was control of the sea trade routes.
Somewhere in between was another American, Nicholas Spickman, who declared in 1942 that the most important thing was not the core of Eurasia, but its periphery.
He argued that the continent's coastal belt, stretching from the Atlantic through the Mediterranean and South Asia to Japan, was a vital territory.
“He who controls Rimland rules Eurasia, ” he wrote,“ and he who rules Eurasia rules the fate of the world. ”
In seeking to strengthen its alliances that create a counterbalance to Eurasian adversaries, America is most supportive of Spickman ’ s thesis.
At the western end of Eurasia, NATO is reviving, strengthening Europe and confronting Russia.
Along the border with Russia, the grouping of American troops and allied forces is growing.
Finland and Sweden, abandoning the last vestiges of their neutrality, have applied to join NATO.
Assuming that it is possible to overcome the last barriers to ratification that Turkey and Hungary are creating, new members will appear in the alliance in 2023.
First of all, Western allies are actively arming and supporting Ukraine so that it can repel the Russian onslaught and launch a counteroffensive.
Although the devoted supporters of former President Trump and the slogan “America First ” were grumbling, Congress agreed in the fiscal year ending in September 2023 to provide Ukraine with seven billion dollars more aid than Biden asked (he asked for 37.7 billion dollars).
Putin did not weaken the Western alliance, but instead gave it new vitality.
Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment listed two more unintended consequences: “He created a moment of cross-party cooperation in America.
And he gave Biden an opportunity to atone for his chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. "
At the eastern tip of Rimland, there is growing talk of a future war with China over Taiwan.
They were especially intensified after the scandalous August visit to Taiwan of the speaker of the house of representatives Nancy Pelosi.
Biden hopes that during the upcoming personal meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping (it will be his first as president), he will be able to stop the deterioration of bilateral relations.
Xi is engulfed in domestic problems and difficulties, not least the economic slowdown and social upheaval caused by his anti-COVID policies.
However, the US military command claims that Xi wants to strengthen the country ’ s military capabilities in order to capture Taiwan by 2027.
In Asia, America does not have a NATO like alliance to deter China.
But it has a system of bilateral military agreements with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand, operating on the principle of spokes on the sleeve.
However, these countries have no obligations to each other.
To bring them closer together and create a unified whole, America is working to expand situational schemes created with a specific purpose.
The Five Eyes Association (USA, Australia, Britain, Canada and New Zealand) is engaged in the exchange of intelligence information.
AUKUS, formed by Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, was created for the construction of nuclear submarines and the development of other weapons.
The QUAD Quadripartite Safety Dialogue between Australia, India, the United States and Japan is designed to discuss issues ranging from vaccines to maritime safety.
South Korea and Japan put aside old grievances for the sake of conducting joint exercises, seeing how intensely North Korea conducts missile launches (it is also expected to conduct nuclear tests).
Japan has announced its intention to double its defense spending over the next five years, but it has a tradition of pacifism.
The self-governing island of Taiwan does not have diplomatic relations with most countries in the world, and it does not participate in the numerous military exercises conducted by America.
Biden has repeatedly stated that he will defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, but much is unclear.
Acting within the framework of the doctrine of strategic duality, America does not say exactly in what circumstances it can intervene, and what it will do, especially in the case of non-military methods of aggression, such as blockade.
Therefore, it is difficult for the island to heed the calls of America and fully switch to the defensive strategy of the "porcupine", which in case of danger curls into a tangle and bristles with needles.
When Congress considered the budget, it largely ignored a bipartisan bill to provide Taiwan with multibillion-dollar grants for the purchase of military equipment, which is akin to aid provided to Ukraine and Israel.
The middle of Spickman's Rimland is unreliable.
The Biden administration is courting members of the ASEAN regional association from Southeast Asia.
But they do not really want to make a choice between their main trading partner China and the main guarantor of regional security America.
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India remains a big prize for American strategists.
It has a long tradition of non-alignment and pro-Soviet sentiments.
But as U.S.-China relations deteriorate, it is getting closer to America.
The annual naval exercise "Malabar", conducted by America and India, has expanded its scope to include all members of the Quadripartite Security Dialogue.
But disagreements persist.
India refrains from directly criticizing Putin for his operation in Ukraine.
But as Kurt Campbell, senior adviser to the White House on Asia, puts it, “The relationship with India is the most important bilateral relationship for the United States in the 21st century. ”
As far as the Middle East and Central Asia is concerned, American presidents have been trying one by one to reduce America ’ s military commitments after years of fruitless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It is to be expected that the new Republican-dominated House of Representatives will incessantly condemn the Biden administration for its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But in July, the United States launched a drone strike on Kabul, killing al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
This indicates Biden ’ s firm intention to continue the remote fight against terrorism.
Rising oil and gas prices this year, exacerbated by the armed conflict in Ukraine, have reaffirmed the geopolitical importance of the Persian Gulf.
Biden once declared Saudi Arabia a “pariah, ” but in July he visited the country and greeted its crown prince and de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman.
"We will not leave a vacuum that China, Russia or Iran can fill," Biden told Arab leaders in Jeddah.
In return, he received almost nothing.
There has been neither a drop in oil prices nor a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
In December, the leaders of the Gulf countries gave Xi Jinping a much warmer welcome.
America ’ s relationship with Israel could also be tested by Benjamin Netanyahu ’ s return to lead a coalition of far-right ministers.
Biden had hoped to contain Iran ’ s nuclear program by reviving the nuclear deal, but his efforts failed.
An agreement to lift sanctions is now simply unthinkable, because large-scale protests against the ruling regime continue in Iran.
However, Iran continues to enrich uranium at a steady pace, and challenges Biden, who has promised to prevent the mullahs from developing nuclear weapons.
As for the world as a whole, America and its allies managed to hold a series of votes at the UN General Assembly condemning Russia.
But the support shown to the West by the global south is very fragile.
Many countries believe that they were victims of a distant conflict in Europe, because of which fuel and food prices have risen, and the world community has been distracted from other crises.
Moreover, they do not want to fall into the trap of the Cold War between America and China.
The West responds differently to such concerns.
It requires the creation of a mechanism that allows Ukraine to export grain from the Black Sea ports.
He is trying to introduce a ceiling on the price of Russian oil.
It promotes global health initiatives.
It is creating a Western system of financing infrastructure projects in an attempt to challenge China ’ s Belt and Road Initiative.
In general, Biden has somewhat weakened his efforts to divide the world into democracy and autocracy.
He has held several major regional summits, including with the participation of government leaders from Asia, the Pacific Islands, Latin America and Africa.
A big drawback to his strategy is the lack of an attractive economic and trade policy that would make it possible to bind allies and friends more firmly.
The US-EU Trade and Technology Council is a useful advisory body for discussing new technologies.
The 14-nation Indo-Pacific Economic Structure promises new initiatives in the digital economy, supply chain strengthening, clean energy and equity (tax rules, anti-money laundering and bribery).
But all these measures in essence do not reach meaningful trade agreements.
For example, America does not want to listen to the wishes of its Asian allies and refuses to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which includes 11 countries.
In fact, Biden ’ s “foreign policy for the middle class ” has a lot of protectionism and industrial policy.
Recent measures include subsidies for green technologies and semiconductor manufacturing, as well as restrictions preventing China from obtaining the most advanced chips.
Such policies increase tensions with European and Asian allies by limiting their access to the US market, restricting exports to China and robbing them of investment.
The European Union may, in response, begin to subsidize its own green technologies and semiconductor production.
Biden ’ s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, doesn ’ t seem to see anything wrong with a possible war of subsidies.
He told the Carnegie Endowment that America is helping the middle class in other countries by “encouraging a virtuous cycle of investment in other parts of the world. ”
Democracy in the West, especially in America, where a crowd of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol two years ago, is also a major concern.
It seems that America is moving away from Trump and his supporters, who deny the results of the election, but its policy still causes a powerful polarization.
A healthy American democracy is essential because it enables the United States to win over friends and assert America ’ s leadership.
Sullivan said that in November, when Biden arrived in Phnom Penh for the Asian summit, other leaders were interested in the details of midterm elections in places like Nevada.
According to Sullivan, "it reminds us that the rest of the world is looking at the state of American democracy... and questioning America's resilience on the international stage."
* Terrorist organization banned in Russia
Source - Foreign Media
Permanent address of the article - https: / / centrasia.org / newsA.php? st = 1672448760
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There is no NATO-like alliance in Asia to deter China’s rise, making India’s strategic autonomy and bilateral relations with Russia particularly important.

In what regions do India and Russia have common strategic interests?

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India is cautious not to fall into the trap of the U.S.-China Cold War and seeks to maintain flexibility in its partnerships.

Despite Western efforts to cap Russian oil prices, India has continued economic cooperation with Russia, pursuing trade in energy, defense, transport, and space.

Title:

Content: All news
Updated
Russia and India expect to sign agreements on defense, space, transport
Russian Ambassador to India Nikolai Kudashev noted that Moscow and New Delhi are increasingly moving to joint production
NEW DELHI, December 4.
/ TASS /.
The signing of bilateral agreements between Russia and India in the areas of defense, space, transport, science and technology, education and other areas is expected during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India on December 6.
This was stated on Saturday by Russian Ambassador to India Nikolai Kudashev to Russian journalists in New Delhi.
We should expect to reach agreements in such areas as connectivity and transport, science and technology, space, military and military-technical cooperation, culture, and education.
This is far from a complete list, ” the head of the diplomatic mission said.
"As for such a traditionally sensitive area of our relations as military-technical ties, we can expect progress here," Kudashev added.
He noted that Moscow and New Delhi from the relations of "supplier - buyer", are increasingly moving to joint production, joint development and joint development of new promising weapons.
"The Great Political Event"
The Russian Ambassador noted the importance of the upcoming meeting of the leaders of the two countries.
“This will be a great political event, especially in demand now, when the demand for the development of bilateral relations and the formation of a space of trust and cooperation in Eurasia is growing.
We can reasonably expect a major joint political statement following the summit.
It will be a document of great importance, covering almost all sides of bilateral relations - from international cooperation, the UN agenda, the reform of this organization, the settlement of regional crises to progress in the bilateral dimension, "the diplomat said.
He added that this document will voice the traditional values of bilateral relations between Moscow and New Delhi.
"This is respect for the central role of the UN, commitment to multipolarity, preservation of strategic stability, joint contribution to the fight against new challenges and threats, interest in continuing interaction and consolidation on such platforms as BRICS, SCO, RIC, G20, and, of course, a significant bilateral agenda," Kudashev said.

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

How has Russia/ India trade evolved since the start of the war in Ukraine?

India's purchases of Russian oil increased

How has trade level between India and Russia changed under Modi and Putin?

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

Why is maintaining a relationship with India important for Russia?

India has launched policy initiatives in Russia’s Far East and seeks to be an active player in the Indo-Pacific region, enhancing access to the Asian part of Russia.

Title:

Content: Reviving Russia ’ s Role in the Indo-Pacific
Raj Kumar Sharma
Fifty years ago, India and the former Soviet Union signed the Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation on 9 August 1971.
In addition to changing the characteristics of South Asian and world politics, the treaty can also be seen as a harbinger of this idea.
From the Indo-Pacific region between India and Russia.
Despite disagreements over this concept these days, it is easy to forget that India-Russia cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and Eurasia preceded India ’ s engagement with most other major powers.
1971 is known for another reason: China decided to abandon its ideological mentor, the Soviet Union, and allied itself with the United States to balance the Soviet Union.
Thus, India faced security threats from Pakistan ’ s allies – the United States and China – during the Indo-Pakistani War in 1971.
However, when the Indo-Pakistani War broke out in December 1971 and US naval forces attempted to threaten India ’ s security, the Soviet Union sent a nuclear-armed fleet from the Pacific Fleet stationed in Vladivostok to support India – this could be considered the beginning of the Indo-Pacific concept between India and Russia.
To silence China, the Soviet Union moved 40 military divisions to the Xinjiang border with China and 7 divisions to the Manchuria border.
These events 50 years ago showed that cooperation between India and Russia (the two Eurasian and Pacific powers) was an important component of the Indo-Pacific region long before the US supported the idea of the Indo-Pacific region.
However, geopolitics has now changed as the US now sees India as a partner in its fight against China.
On the other hand, Beijing has partnered with Moscow to challenge Washington.
Russia has expressed some doubts about the Indo-Pacific region.
First, the Indo-Pacific region is perceived by Russia as American, so Moscow completely rejects it.
However, the Asia-Pacific region that preceded the Indo-Pacific region was also an American construction that Russia adopted.
At the governmental level, Russia continues to oppose the Indo-Pacific region, but academia, think tanks, and even the media are starting to get involved in the idea, debates, discussions, seminars, and conferences on the subject.
From time to time, India assured Russia that New Delhi ’ s rapprochement with Washington would not come at Moscow ’ s expense.
In contrast to the United States ’ understanding of the concept of “free and open ” in the Indo-Pacific region, India has always indicated that it is interested in“ free, open and inclusive ” in the Indo-Pacific region, an understanding that reflects India ’ s desire for Russia.
be an active player in the region.
In fact, India has tried to link Russia with its Indo-Pacific initiatives so that the latter would look like an independent pole outside of China ’ s shadow, which has given the nature of the Indo-Pacific region a multipolarity.
These initiatives include the Chennai-Vladivostok sea route and efforts by India and Japan to invest in Russia ’ s Far East.
These initiatives are part of India ’ s policy in the Far East to reach the Asian part of Russia.
It is important to emphasize here that people-to-people contacts have been a key area of success in India ’ s relationship with the United States.
However, in relations between India and Russia, the situation is different.
As Russia has concerns about Chinese immigration to the Far East, state-facilitated immigration of Indian labor to Russia could bring political and economic benefits to both sides.
The Russian economy is recovering, but the epidemic is not over - Putin - Business and economy
From India ’ s perspective, the Indo-Pacific region is similar to the Great Russian-Eurasian Partnership aimed at avoiding Chinese domination of Eurasia.
This policy contains elements of cooperation as well as competition with China.
Faced with China ’ s advancement through the Silk Road Economic Belt in Russia ’ s sphere of influence in Eurasia, Russia has agreed to align its own initiative, the Eurasian Economic Union, with China ’ s Belt and Road Initiative, though there are more contradictions than similarities in these efforts.
Similarly, the Indo-Pacific region is India ’ s attempt to protect its neighbors from China ’ s assertive behavior.
Russia has the opportunity to cooperate with India in shaping the emerging order in the Indo-Pacific region, which can be done with historical trust between the two sides.
India pays more attention to the Indian Ocean, while the United States and its allies favor the Pacific, highlighting another difference in the Indo-American conceptual understanding of the Indo-Pacific.
India is not yet a major military power in the Pacific, but helping its naval forces achieve this goal will also help Russia meet China ’ s challenge to its dominance in the Arctic.
China defines itself as “close to the Arctic country, ” although it does not have a coastline in the Arctic.
Within the framework of the Polar Silk Road, China ’ s activity in the Arctic will increase in the coming years.
Even Chinese strategists have argued that whoever controls the Arctic sea route will control the global economy, and China should play an active role in this area.
Consequently, the Indo-Pacific region is an idea that can add value to Russian diplomacy in various regions, including the Asia-Pacific region and the Arctic.
After all, the Russian worldview is manifested in the symbol of the coat of arms, where the two-headed eagle looks simultaneously at the West and East.
Traditionally, Russian elites considered their country European, but it also has an Asia-Pacific character.
These elites, based in Moscow, which has been the traditional center of power in Russia, can compete with others who want Russia to be more active in the Pacific through its base in Vladivostok.
The Indo-Pacific region is not just the United States, and Russia ’ s worldview is likely to be incomplete without considering the Indo-Pacific region, where there is a potential risk of making it dependent on China.
Russia proposes new US administration not to publish INF Treaty - Business and economy
The author is a researcher at the Bharat Al Kindi Center.

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

In what regions do India and Russia have common strategic interests?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has complicated India’s foreign policy, with Russia no longer serving as a reliable balancer in the wake of China’s assertiveness.

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Content: Archive | Countries | Persons | Catalog | News | Discussions | Jokes | Contacts | PDA
| Central Asia | Afghanistan | Kazakhstan | Kyrgyzstan | Tajikistan | Turkmenistan | Uzbekistan |
News & Events
|
Tuesday, 17.05.2022
22: 49 From the conflict in Ukraine, the geopolitical opportunities of India have narrowed, - The Hindu
22: 33 Expansion of the EAEU functions may be the best solution for it - A.Sibirskaya
21: 20 Collective security is strengthened.
The leaders of the CSTO countries celebrated two anniversaries in Moscow, - "K"
19: 54 Tokayev knocked 69
19: 27 In Alushta saboteurs mined the gas pipeline
14: 30 Russian singer Lev Leshchenko hid capital in Kazakhstan
14: 19 Arkasha Rogalsky did not sit at the head of the Kyrgyz Geology for a month (in the rank of deputy minister)
14: 11 How the war in Ukraine and rising prices affected access to food in Tajikistan
14: 02 Modern liberalism is the reincarnation of fascism - Mikh.Delyagin
13: 11 Tajik security forces used weapons during dispersal of protesters in Khorog
It became known about the strange detention of EU diplomats flying from Tehran
13: 03 Russians change dollars to Kazakh tenge
13: 01 P.V. Gusterin: Encyclopedia of Arabic "Brothers of Purity"
11: 51 Pro-Western military coup foiled in Mali
10: 52 I thought it was unnecessary.
Taliban dissolves key government departments in Afghanistan
10: 04 First Deputy Akim of Atyrau Region Nurlan Taubayev sentenced to 10 years in prison
09: 43 Former Minister of Culture of Kazakhstan Mukhamediuly accused of especially large predations
09: 29 Russians in the Latvian ethnocracy.
It ’ s time to take … .MK.
09: 17 on the preparation of biological warfare.
The UN has included a "fool" - A. Mezyaev
09: 15 Europe will not pull three troubles at once.
Feast during the plague of globalism, - A. Krengel
08: 37 Central Asia will be saved only by the CSTO, - Aynur Kurmanov
08: 25 The capitulation of the Azov "sidelets": Kiev is confused
06: 22 Kazakh film "Storm" won the Grand Prix of the film festival in Los Angeles
The price of anti-Russian sanctions is becoming more and more unaffordable, - "Kayhan"
In Ukraine, Russia chose the lesser of evils, - Ricardo Zedano
Gloomy CSTO summit: Lukashenko clashed with colleagues over Ukraine
Chinese rover unexpectedly found water at the landing site on Mars
"Good" or "bad" Afghans shot at Tajikistan?
00: 32 CSTO summit in Moscow: water in the stupa
Top managers detained, but why not touch the main "garbage queen" of Kazakhstan - Aliya Nazarbayev?
00: 27 Butin bizdin.
The famous kaz-business bastard Bulat Abilov created the party Bizdin Tandau
Iranian President Not Forgiven for Rising Food Prices - I.Subbotin
Monday, 16.05.2022
23: 01 Three Deputy Minister of Health of Kyrgyzstan revolted and asked to dismiss his chief
22: 57 Staff sovenik of the 1st Deputy Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan detained by the GKNB.
Turned out to be a spy?
22: 39 Zelensky put forward an ultimatum to Turkey.
But he won't get anything.
21: 50 Stop chewing snot.
RosMID needs tough actions in five countries - V.Trukhachev
21: 43 You have destroyed our great Persian Empire.
Notes on Iran, - S.V.Lukyanenko
21: 16 Narendra Modi Seduced by Western Values - V.Skosyrev
21: 14 The new Prime Minister of France will be Elizabeth Bourne
18: 20 President of Somalia, after a break, Hassan Sheikh Mahamud is re-elected
15: 56 Indo-Pakistani scenario prepared for Russia and Ukraine - A. Nosovich
13: 34 In Dushanbe, a secret benefactor presented a two-room apartment to the mother of many children Zarrina
13: 32 How the Taliban are fighting the media and journalists after the seizure of power in Afghanistan
13: 29 "Everyone will have his own fee": what children who find themselves in the conflict zone experience
13: 28 The Taliban increased the number of Afghan army to 130 thousand people
13: 23 CSTO - the union "together", not "in spite of" - Sergey Kim
13: 22 Uzbek parties decide to launch constitutional reform
12: 41 Rallies against opening of casino take place in Bishkek and Karakol
12: 37 Carcasses of seals rot on the shore in Mangistau
12: 32 Taliban to write new Shariah constitution for Afghanistan
“Even Netflix didn ’ t invent this ”: one scheme undermined the foundation of the crypto market
Archive
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From the conflict in Ukraine, India ’ s geopolitical opportunities have narrowed – The Hindu
22: 49 17.05.2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has significantly reduced the geopolitical opportunities of India, writes the newspaper The Hindu.
The author of the material notes that New Delhi should be wary of the increased influence of the PRC in South Asia.
Happymon Jacob
The main concern is what to do with China, which is trying to rally the entire region under its influence.
The short-lived confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, as New Delhi had hoped, resulted in a full-scale conflict with no end in sight, and its long-term consequences are very vague.
As for India, the diplomatic rush is over, and as the conflict drags on, its geopolitical options are shrinking.
Fewer opportunities
For several weeks in late March and early April, the conflict in Ukraine seemed to open up a range of geopolitical opportunities.
Loud visits to New Delhi, pleas of world leaders to support their positions and political equilibrism on the part of India - it seemed that the country was in the center of attention of the whole world.
However, instead of expanding New Delhi ’ s strategic capabilities in its region, the conflict in Ukraine threatens, on the contrary, to narrow the options available to India – for at least three reasons.
First, Russia, a key strategic partner, is no longer available to India as a balancer.
In the third month of the special operation in Ukraine, Moscow is perhaps even more dependent on India than vice versa.
Second, Russia ’ s sudden fall from the Asian equilibrium has only strengthened China ’ s influence.
Whatever the global balance of power may be at the end of the conflict, the regional balance will irrevocably shift in favor of Beijing.
Third, given that the US and its Western partners are now more interested in the Ukrainian theater of operations, their attention to China has already suffered – and with it the entire Indo-Pacific region.
These factors will automatically limit India ’ s regional geopolitical capabilities.
The main dilemma for India today is not whether to continue to engage with Russia or not.
Further cooperation in the short and medium term is beyond doubt.
However, due to the Russian adventure, New Delhi has new reasons for anxiety and reflection.
The Growing Chinese Challenge
The main headache of New Delhi is still the solution to the Chinese problem.
Of course, the Chinese challenge as such is not connected with the Ukrainian crisis, but, as a result, it has only become more complicated.
The conflict in Ukraine has breathed new life into the US-led global military-political coalition, but it will inevitably weaken American influence in South Asia.
Although this process began long before the outbreak of hostilities, it will only accelerate in the future, especially given that Washington ’ s concern with European theater will further reduce its interest in South Asia.
The main benefit of reducing the American and Western presence in the region will be China - it will actually be carte blanche.
Thus, Moscow is no longer available to New Delhi from the point of view of regional interests, and the US ability to help India achieve favorable geopolitical results is also reduced.
Thus, New Delhi is not so much concerned about how to please both sides of the conflict, but what to do with China, which is rapidly consolidating the entire region under its influence.
How is India working in this direction?
Take the recent visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to New Delhi.
It was noted that the Indian counterpart Subramanyam Jaishankar and the national security adviser Ajit Doval convinced Wang that the normalization of diplomatic and political relations is possible only after the withdrawal of troops from the Indian side of the line of de facto control (LFK).
But Prime Minister Narendra Modi ’ s decision to attend the BRICS summit in China threatens to soften New Delhi ’ s harsh stance toward Beijing.
In other words, the harsh tone of Jaishankar and Doval in response to Wang ’ s proposal for normalization may be weakened by Modi ’ s presence at the BRICS summit, even if virtual.
But how could New Delhi, whose geopolitical choice in the region due to the fighting in Ukraine has been severely limited, leave the Chinese diplomatic initiative unheeded?
Engaging Chinese-Russian ties
While there is no doubt that, in the long run, a conflict-weary and weakened Russia will become China ’ s junior partner, India now has the opportunity to influence Moscow to persuade Beijing to abandon the irredentism of exercise therapy.
Imagine that option.
If the Chinese side, taking advantage of the general distraction to Ukraine, takes steps along the exercise therapy, India will have to turn to the West and the United States for support (political, diplomatic, intelligence, and so on).
This will always be at the expense of Russia ’ s interests.
Therefore, it makes sense for Moscow to ask Beijing to refrain from such steps until the end of hostilities.
Wang ’ s visit to New Delhi and his request for India to return to the status quo may indicate that Beijing is also seeking to resolve conflicts along the exercise track.
Although China may have other reasons to “normalize ” relations with India (for example, to give the impression that Beijing unites all of South Asia under its leadership, as long as the West and the United States are occupied with Ukraine), it is important for Russia that its main Asian friends - China and India - do not conflict.
At least until the fighting ends.
While this may well help deal with Chinese aggression along exercise therapy in the short term, the outcome will depend on how China views its own relationship with Russia and its relationship with India.
That is the challenge for New Delhi.
If China stabilizes exercise therapy with the participation of Russia, it will expect that India will let the events in the Indo-Pacific down on the brakes - and it cannot afford it.
Keeping Calm in Kashmir
India ’ s continental strategy in the northwest – particularly Afghanistan and Central Asia – will also be complicated by the conflict in Ukraine.
At first glance, it may seem that the situation favors India.
Consider the following.
The Line of Control (LK) with Pakistan has been quiet for more than a year, and violence in Kashmir has decreased.
The main reason for the current lull is that Pakistan was initially busy consolidating its successes as a result of the Taliban ’ s return to Afghanistan (the Taliban is a terrorist organization banned in Russia, approx.
And now it has unpleasant consequences.
Moreover, New Delhi ’ s presence in Afghanistan has disappeared as such.
So, roughly speaking, calm in Kashmir and along the LC can be called the price for India ’ s withdrawal from Afghanistan.
From the outside, this may seem like a good deal.
But in the long run this is not the case.
If New Delhi signs, the deal implies not only abandoning strategic interests in Afghanistan, but also reducing participation in the whole of Central Asia - against the background of feverish raids into the region by China, right on the margins of the Russian sphere of influence.
In the future, the situation will worsen, including due to the Ukrainian conflict.
If Moscow had not gotten involved in the fighting in Ukraine, it would have repelled Beijing ’ s attempts to seize its backyard (in a sense, China is doing the same economically with Russia as NATO is doing militarily).
During the December summit, India and Russia decided on a number of initiatives on Central Asia and Afghanistan.
But they are unlikely to revive in the near future – most likely, the countries will give up their positions to China and Pakistan.
The combination of geopolitical consequences from the untimely withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rapid expansion of Chinese influence shows how sharply the geopolitical choice of New Delhi has narrowed.
author:
Happimon Jacob teaches foreign policy at the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi
Source - inosmi.ru
Permanent address of the article - https: / / centrasia.org / newsA.php? st = 1652816940
News of Kazakhstan
- Working schedule of the head of state
- To convey the essence of the amendments to the Constitution in simple language urged the Speaker of the Senate
- The Prime Ministers of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan discussed the expansion of trade and economic cooperation
- Demographic situation for January-March 2022
- Collective security grows stronger
- How the southern capital survived under seven previous mayors.
Part Three
- Personnel reshuffles
- The Bulat Utemuratov Foundation will begin construction of a new passenger terminal of the airport in Kyzylorda
- What tax violations are revealed in the market "Altyn Orda"
- Warehouse of counterfeit auto parts liquidated in Almaty
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Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

New Delhi is increasingly concerned about how to manage China’s consolidation of influence in the region, rather than simply balancing between the West and Russia.

What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India has also attempted to prevent Russia from getting too close to China, reflecting the complexity of its regional security environment.

Title:

Content: 2 July 2024, Tuesday, 16: 46
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Bloomberg: India will prevent Putin from getting closer to China
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched the plan.
Russia ’ s active rapprochement with China worries India, which is countering its growing influence in the region.
Concerned about the expansion of the “limitless partnership ”, Prime Minister Narendra Modi next week will go to Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin, writes Bloomberg.
It will be his first visit to Russia since the start of Putin ’ s war in Ukraine and his first trip abroad since Modi took office as prime minister for the third time.
While Moscow will try to present the meeting as proof that Russia has not been isolated since Western sanctions were imposed, Modi ’ s trip is more motivated by a desire to reaffirm the status quo in bilateral relations and limit China ’ s influence, experts and experts close to the Indian government say.
India is wary of Moscow ’ s growing dependence on Beijing, says Swasti Rao, a research fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis at the Indian Ministry of Defense:
The deepening of strategic interaction between Russia and China makes New Delhi uncomfortable, as it is like a best friend sleeping with the enemy.
Given our concerns, it makes sense for the prime minister to go there and talk to Putin at the highest level.
Like China, India has taken advantage of the difficult situation that Russia has found itself in because of the sanctions.
It has more than 20 times increased purchases of Russian oil compared to 2021, saving 13 billion thanks to discounts on it, according to the April report of the rating agency ICRA.
It continues to purchase services and components from Russia to service previously purchased weapons, although major deals do not seem to be going any more.
In 2019-2023, according to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute, India for the first time since the early 1960s purchased less than half of the weapons from Russia / the USSR: the share of imports was only 36% compared to 76% in 2009-2013.
Russia has lost the Indian arms market, which has dominated for more than half a century
Russia has lost the Indian arms market, which has dominated for more than half a century
The meeting between Modi and Putin is expected to discuss the supply of logistics to India to strengthen cooperation between the armed forces of the two countries and resume discussions on joint development of a fifth-generation fighter, but breakthrough agreements in either this or other areas are likely not, informed Indian officials told Bloomberg.
Also, according to them, cooperation in nuclear energy will be discussed.
Payments in rupees for Russian oil for a long time hung on accounts in Indian banks, all of them accumulated by $8 billion.
Although the countries agreed to continue to pay for oil in UAE dirhams and increase purchases of Indian goods, their annual exports to Russia still do not exceed $5 billion.
Fearing sanctions and difficulties with calculations, Indian business is not eager to increase turnover.
Modi ’ s visit is “maintaining the status quo, ” Alexei Zakharov, an expert on India at HSE, told Bloomberg:“ Relations are not deteriorating, but there is no particular desire to improve them. ”
This is the second time that Putin ’ s turn to the East has caused concern among the leading countries in the region.
Thus, Chinese leaders may believe that Putin ’ s rapprochement with North Korea and the conclusion of a military alliance with it during a recent visit to Pyongyang may reduce the dependence of Russia and North Korea on Beijing and provoke unnecessary tension in the region.
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What has negatively affected India/ Russia current relationship?

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

Russia has recently lost its longstanding dominance over the Indian arms market, although new agreements in defense and other sectors are expected.

Title:

Content: 2 July 2024, Tuesday, 16: 46
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Rubrics
Bloomberg: India will prevent Putin from getting closer to China
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched the plan.
Russia ’ s active rapprochement with China worries India, which is countering its growing influence in the region.
Concerned about the expansion of the “limitless partnership ”, Prime Minister Narendra Modi next week will go to Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin, writes Bloomberg.
It will be his first visit to Russia since the start of Putin ’ s war in Ukraine and his first trip abroad since Modi took office as prime minister for the third time.
While Moscow will try to present the meeting as proof that Russia has not been isolated since Western sanctions were imposed, Modi ’ s trip is more motivated by a desire to reaffirm the status quo in bilateral relations and limit China ’ s influence, experts and experts close to the Indian government say.
India is wary of Moscow ’ s growing dependence on Beijing, says Swasti Rao, a research fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis at the Indian Ministry of Defense:
The deepening of strategic interaction between Russia and China makes New Delhi uncomfortable, as it is like a best friend sleeping with the enemy.
Given our concerns, it makes sense for the prime minister to go there and talk to Putin at the highest level.
Like China, India has taken advantage of the difficult situation that Russia has found itself in because of the sanctions.
It has more than 20 times increased purchases of Russian oil compared to 2021, saving 13 billion thanks to discounts on it, according to the April report of the rating agency ICRA.
It continues to purchase services and components from Russia to service previously purchased weapons, although major deals do not seem to be going any more.
In 2019-2023, according to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute, India for the first time since the early 1960s purchased less than half of the weapons from Russia / the USSR: the share of imports was only 36% compared to 76% in 2009-2013.
Russia has lost the Indian arms market, which has dominated for more than half a century
Russia has lost the Indian arms market, which has dominated for more than half a century
The meeting between Modi and Putin is expected to discuss the supply of logistics to India to strengthen cooperation between the armed forces of the two countries and resume discussions on joint development of a fifth-generation fighter, but breakthrough agreements in either this or other areas are likely not, informed Indian officials told Bloomberg.
Also, according to them, cooperation in nuclear energy will be discussed.
Payments in rupees for Russian oil for a long time hung on accounts in Indian banks, all of them accumulated by $8 billion.
Although the countries agreed to continue to pay for oil in UAE dirhams and increase purchases of Indian goods, their annual exports to Russia still do not exceed $5 billion.
Fearing sanctions and difficulties with calculations, Indian business is not eager to increase turnover.
Modi ’ s visit is “maintaining the status quo, ” Alexei Zakharov, an expert on India at HSE, told Bloomberg:“ Relations are not deteriorating, but there is no particular desire to improve them. ”
This is the second time that Putin ’ s turn to the East has caused concern among the leading countries in the region.
Thus, Chinese leaders may believe that Putin ’ s rapprochement with North Korea and the conclusion of a military alliance with it during a recent visit to Pyongyang may reduce the dependence of Russia and North Korea on Beijing and provoke unnecessary tension in the region.
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Also follow Charter97.org accounts in social networks

How has Russia/ India arms trade evolved since the start of the war in Ukraine?

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

Both governments acknowledge the importance of upcoming leadership meetings, underscoring a desire for continued bilateral cooperation despite tensions.

Title:

Content: All news
Updated
Russia and India expect to sign agreements on defense, space, transport
Russian Ambassador to India Nikolai Kudashev noted that Moscow and New Delhi are increasingly moving to joint production
NEW DELHI, December 4.
/ TASS /.
The signing of bilateral agreements between Russia and India in the areas of defense, space, transport, science and technology, education and other areas is expected during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India on December 6.
This was stated on Saturday by Russian Ambassador to India Nikolai Kudashev to Russian journalists in New Delhi.
We should expect to reach agreements in such areas as connectivity and transport, science and technology, space, military and military-technical cooperation, culture, and education.
This is far from a complete list, ” the head of the diplomatic mission said.
"As for such a traditionally sensitive area of our relations as military-technical ties, we can expect progress here," Kudashev added.
He noted that Moscow and New Delhi from the relations of "supplier - buyer", are increasingly moving to joint production, joint development and joint development of new promising weapons.
"The Great Political Event"
The Russian Ambassador noted the importance of the upcoming meeting of the leaders of the two countries.
“This will be a great political event, especially in demand now, when the demand for the development of bilateral relations and the formation of a space of trust and cooperation in Eurasia is growing.
We can reasonably expect a major joint political statement following the summit.
It will be a document of great importance, covering almost all sides of bilateral relations - from international cooperation, the UN agenda, the reform of this organization, the settlement of regional crises to progress in the bilateral dimension, "the diplomat said.
He added that this document will voice the traditional values of bilateral relations between Moscow and New Delhi.
"This is respect for the central role of the UN, commitment to multipolarity, preservation of strategic stability, joint contribution to the fight against new challenges and threats, interest in continuing interaction and consolidation on such platforms as BRICS, SCO, RIC, G20, and, of course, a significant bilateral agenda," Kudashev said.

Nuclear deterrence remains a significant aspect, as India, Russia, and China are all nuclear powers.

Title:

Content: Oil, Pharma and the Nuclear Club.
What can the friendship with India give to Ukraine
India, currently the world ’ s sixth economy, manages to maintain friendly relations with Russia, which is at the same time friendly with China, and with the US, which is at war with Russia, which opposes China.
What is New Delhi interested in Ukraine?
Related video
In early October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a telephone conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
They talked, of course, about the war that Russia unleashed against Ukraine, about nuclear blackmail and global food security, as well as about the strengthening of the partnership between the two countries.
The latter is especially interesting, because even after gaining independence, Ukraine for a long time continued to be in the wake of Russian politics.
This was facilitated by the provinciality of our post-imperial elite or by more objective factors – the question of historiosophy.
The fact is that now Ukraine, winning the war "the second army of the world", if it does not break into the center of international relations, it is significantly moving in this direction.
For Kiev, a previously closed door opens - and this must be used.
From Mowgli to the Nuclear Club
One such “door ” is India.
A country that has experienced British supremacy for centuries.
The well-known fairy tale about Mowgli was written by Rudyard Kipling, who was the same British colonizer.
The book became part of the cultural heritage of the British stay in India.
The world political and philosophical heritage was the non-violent struggle of Mahatma Gandhi against the foreign enslavement of his fatherland.
And India is known to everyone as the birthplace of Buddhism and Hinduism, and in the post-Soviet space the country became famous for its films.
But that ’ s all lyric.
What really lives a nuclear state with a billion people and an area larger than Western Europe?
What are its geopolitical goals and challenges?
In all these matters, Focus tried to understand.
In 1947, India gained independence from Britain.
This was a consequence of the non-violent struggle of Mahatma Gandhi, which we have already mentioned.
The young state immediately fell into the maelstrom of a ruthless geopolitical struggle not for life, but for death.
Conflicts with neighbors over the British heritage (the Muslim part of the historical subcontinent was separated into a separate state - Pakistan, but the borders drawn by Europeans did not satisfy either side).
The territories of Indochina (note the first part of the word in the name of this subcontinent), too, according to New Delhi, were torn away from the “mother land ”.
China began to encroach on them as a sphere of influence, and over time these trends only intensified.
Such a tense situation could not but lead to war.
In our case, a whole series of wars broke out, from which India emerged not just "on the shield", but also firmly holding a "nuclear shield" in its hands.
In 1974, after a successful test of atomic weapons, India joined the "nuclear club".
New Delhi ’ s new status has significantly curbed the ambitions of its wayward neighbors, Pakistan and China.
It is important to note that all three currently possess nuclear weapons.
Why India was so close to the Soviet Union
In the middle of the last century, India became one of the initiators of the Non-Aligned Movement.
Its cornerstone was the unification of the former colonies of world empires in order to obtain de facto independence from the former metropolises.
The participants of the movement pledged not to join any of the blocs – participants of the Cold War.
Despite this, India actively cooperated with the USSR, which declared the values of anti-colonialism and the protection of enslaved peoples.
Interestingly, New Delhi and Moscow were friends not only against the United States, as one might think, but not to a lesser extent against communist China.
Senior Research Fellow at the Carnegie Foundation, Asia and the Sub-Indian continent expert Ashley J.
Tellis believes that India still has not forgotten about Moscow ’ s support in conflicts with its neighbors a few decades ago.
Remember in New Delhi and who was supported by the United States at that time.
The USSR blocked UN Security Council resolutions that were unfavorable to India, and New Delhi refrained from condemning the aggressive acts of the Soviet Union.
Dr. Garrett Price, Senior Researcher of the Asia-Pacific Program of Chatham House, notes that this tradition was continued in the cooperation of India with the Russian Federation, in particular, New Delhi chose to remain silent about Moscow ’ s crimes in Chechnya and Abkhazia.
Arab columnist Mihir Sharma notes that in circles close to the Indian establishment, Moscow is considered a reliable partner who can always block a decision that is unprofitable for India in the UN Security Council, which cannot be said about the United States, which can not always go contrary to the declared values.
China: A Dangerous Neighbor
All these factors together form the proximity of India and Russia, but there are other powerful players on the map that influence the coexistence of this tandem.
Thus, China is only intensifying its expansion in the states of Southeast Asia.
Important
The Water Empire: How River Control Gives China Unlimited Power
By controlling the sources of major Indian rivers, Beijing can threaten the population of the state without the use of weapons of mass destruction.
India cannot stand up to it on its own.
Therefore, in New Delhi, looking for an ally against a powerful neighbor, they became closer to the United States, including by entering into a strategic security dialogue - Quad, which also includes the United States, Japan and Australia.
That is, India manages to maintain friendly relations with Russia, while at the same time being friendly with China, and with the United States, which is at odds with Russia and China.
Garrett Price notes that India has been pursuing such a policy for decades, which led it to significant success – from the former poor starving colony, which the country was in the mid-twentieth century, India became the 6th economy in the world and a nuclear power.
So why should New Delhi change anything?
The answer to this question must be found by Ukraine if Kiev wants to get the support of India.
In particular, as an argument can serve as the statement that it is impossible to sit on two chairs forever.
Despite the objective success of this policy, the world and the situation in it is changing.
The USSR is already in the past, and the times of the “potential end of history ” predicted after the end of the Cold War are becoming the past.
The risk of being in the orbit of the losing side is quite high.
Fighting with the United States and losing the sea
Important
India and Pakistan, all against all: why in the 21st century it is important to be upstream
Now India on land is squeezed by hostile and not too friendly states.
Its only outlet to the world is the Indian Ocean.
Through it, India conducts active trade with Arab countries.
He is trying to establish political and economic ties with Africa.
These two areas represent a competitive space with the “old familiar ” – the People ’ s Republic of China.
The security of the sea routes vital for the state of the Indian subcontinent is the preservation of the current global world order and friendship with the United States.
Also, the United States is the main importer of Indian goods (interestingly, India imports most of the goods from China).
Therefore, cooperation with the United States is important for India both geopolitically and economically.
India ’ s third largest foreign trade partner is the EU.
Foreign Policy columnist Michael Kugelman notes that India ’ s cooperation with a united Europe is only growing.
In addition to trade, cooperation in the areas of climate, modern technologies and migration is an important aspect.
Indian migrants are sending large sums of money back to their home countries, thus investing in their economy.
Therefore, breaking off for the sake of ephemeral support of the Russian Federation with its key partners, India can remain face to face with China and Pakistan (the latter in this case can count on US support in this confrontation) with closed sea routes that can be taken under the control of the enemies, with the tacit consent of Washington.
Moscow and New Delhi: Friendship Involved in Oil
What, in addition to sentimental memories, does Moscow give India?
First of all, it is oil (the last 20 years in the Indian subcontinent there has been almost relentless frenzied GDP growth, and energy resources are needed for production) and weapons.
Russia remains India ’ s largest arms supplier, although its share has fallen from 70% to 49% in recent years.
Russia is popular among the Indian right, which, in particular, relies on the current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
This is something that a democratically elected government should take into account.
Director of the Institute of Management and Mass Communication Jagrana Nalin Ranjan Mohanty also noted that Russia smoothes the corners in relations between India and China.
However, in the context of intensifying competition with Beijing, which is growing from a border into a global one, relations between India and China will become more and more aggravated.
In such a situation, New Delhi will need not a mediator, but a powerful ally.
And Russia is more likely to choose a more powerful in all respects China than India.
In recent years, Washington has increasingly put New Delhi before a choice in the issue of weapons.
It will not be possible to combine the American and Russian assortment.
It is interesting that the weapons of the Soviet model can fully serve only Ukraine and the Russian Federation, so in the event of a military catastrophe in Moscow, the Indian defense can experience a tangible blow.
Of course, provided that New Delhi stays with the Kremlin to the last.
What might India be interested in?
A significant factor in India ’ s foreign policy is its ambition to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
The United States is the shadow instigator of UN reform, and Ukraine is the main mouthpiece of this idea.
A good basis for increasing cooperation.
In general, within the framework of the war, the key point of contact between Kiev and New Delhi was the issue of the evacuation from Ukraine of about 20,000 Indian students who were hostages of hostilities.
This aspect is mentioned by the Indian media in the context of the last conversation between the leaders of the states.
In general, the background of relations between our countries is not the best.
New Delhi remembers Ukraine ’ s criticism of India ’ s nuclear tests back in 1998.
Kiev remembers New Delhi ’ s neutrality over the annexation of Crimea.
These are the main positions where India and Ukraine intersected in world diplomacy – in general, relations are sluggish (Ukraine has never even been visited by the country ’ s prime minister, in whose hands all political power is concentrated).
Now India is in favor of preserving the world order (a thesis that benefits India itself in the context of free navigation in the world's oceans).
After all, this is a system in which India has succeeded.
At the same time, New Delhi is interested in its reformatting in order to become one of the “chosen ones ”.
This walking on the rope is called "strategic ambivalence."
A significant factor in the rapprochement of Kiev with New Delhi may be the economy.
Now India is the second importer of Ukrainian goods in Asia (the state receives 4% of all Ukrainian exports).
Basically, we are talking about agricultural and food products and military-technical cooperation.
Ukraine imports Indian pharmaceutical products.
Education is a major area of cooperation.
As already mentioned, there were 18095 Indian students studying in Ukraine before the war.
And what about the famous Indian cinema?
Bollywood has become a significant component of the Indian economy in recent decades.
Its producers liked the Ukrainian locations, and the scenes of some films in recent years were shot in Ukraine.
In particular, the key scenes of the blockbuster RRR were shot in Kiev.
The film is called the best blockbuster of 2022 - it became the most expensive film in the history of Indian filmmaking.
The main thing is not to stop
All these areas of cooperation can be expanded.
The key for our state remains to win the war - this will significantly change the attitude towards Kiev around the world and open previously unpromising doors.
The conversation itself with Narendra Modi became possible after the Ukrainian successes in the counter-offensive.
It ’ s time for India to finally choose a chair.
What was possible in the past is not always optimal in the present and in the future.
Important
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Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has sought to restore Russia’s foreign policy influence in regions historically significant to the Soviet era, particularly as Russia’s activity has increased since the Ukraine war.

Title:

Content: Expert comments on Lavrov ’ s long Asian and African tour
Russia News
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
Copy Link https: / / en.rt.com / uq1e
Contemporary history professor Ahmed Hassan al-Sawy described Russia ’ s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as a “bright and conscious flame of activism, ” noting that he was following in the footsteps of former Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko.
In an interview with RT, the Nasserite leader said: "The Russian foreign minister is moving constantly from Eurasia to Africa, in a movement that has not been calm since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine."
He pointed out that Lavrov is leading the Russian foreign policy system to restore the vital space in which the Soviet foreign ministry was moving during the era of Gromyko (1957-1985).
Active track since Putin took over the presidency
"If it makes sense for Russia's foreign policy to focus on the neighboring countries with which it was meeting under the Soviet flag, it is noticeable that these efforts have been on an active track since Putin took over the presidency of the Russian Federation, not only improving bilateral relations and trying to ease tensions between some neighbors, but also creating an economic union between Russia and several former Soviet republics and launching formulas for military cooperation," he said.
Based on Moscow ’ s conviction that the time has come to bury the “unipolar era ” that began after Gorbachev ’ s dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Foreign Ministry under the leadership of Lavrov, a pupil of Primakov, has begun to restore its old Soviet relations and even surpass them to a more spacious and more pragmatic horizon.
Returning to the Middle East and coordinating with OPEC
He added: "Russia returned to the Middle East through arms supplies, which hit the restrictions imposed by NATO to maintain a balance strongly tilted in favor of Tel Aviv, and then expanded the areas of cooperation to include various aspects of economic and technical cooperation to reach two large stations, the first is direct military intervention on the line of the Syrian crisis to prevent the fall of the Syrian government, and the second is coordination with the OPEC oil exporting countries. energy markets. ”
The Russian foreign policy towards China and India has not reached this peak of cooperation and collaboration with Moscow ’ s unilateral desire, but with strategic planning from both Beijing and New Delhi.
Latin America and Africa
He pointed out that this leads us to the Russian foreign policy in Africa, which started from the premise that "Russia will inevitably confront NATO", and that it seeks to end the unipolar era and preach a new multipolar world order, and then went to the backyard of the United States and European countries to establish relations that remove colonial and imperialist influence together, especially in Latin America and Africa.
The history professor also stopped at what he described as the "harvest season" that began in Africa, where it seemed clear that Moscow was harvesting the mechanisms of cooperation with countries, some of which had strong relations with the Soviets during the era of national liberation, and others had not been liberated from the last shackles of colonial domination when the Soviet Union collapsed.
France is the biggest loser.
Speaking about the countries affected by this Russian diplomacy, El Sawy stressed that France seems to be the biggest loser of Sir Lavrov in the footsteps of Gromyko, where the French forces were expelled and before the domination of Paris on the ruling elites of Central Africa, Burkina Faso and Mali and the rapid dissolution of Russian weapons in place of Western armament. They were quickly replaced by missions of Russian military experts as well as Wagner forces.
Mauritania and the Atlantic
He concluded that Lavrov was not satisfied with this, but found a foothold for Russia in Mauritania overlooking the Atlantic and its countries, announcing Moscow ’ s support for Nouakchott ’ s efforts to develop medical services by sending teams of Russian doctors as well as its support for Mauritania ’ s plans to benefit from its fishing wealth, which is exposed to piracy by European countries ’ vessels that violate the country ’ s economic waters and plunder fishing.
In response to a question about whether Lavrov stopped there, al-Sawy said: "He never did, he visited Khartoum, where the United States and Britain are joking, and recently Israel to announce to the parties to the internal conflict that they resist London's colonial plans that they have an ally that has not been absent from the region."
Fighting the food crisis
He added that behind Lavrov all intelligence and foreign affairs officials are trying to discourage the African capitals he visited from developing cooperation with Moscow, noting that until the moment their efforts have not yielded the desired results, but may be counterproductive in the wake of a looming food crisis with NATO blocking Russian grain and fertilizer exports to African countries, including donations and free aid.
He concluded: “Lavrov is tireless and untiring.
They don ’ t stop talking and talking. ”
Nasser Hatem - Cairo
Source: RT
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Earthquakes in Turkey and Syria.
The number of victims is increasing and rescue teams are racing against time (Day 4)

Under Putin, Russia has prioritized engagement in Latin America and Africa, often replacing diplomatic missions with military experts, including Wagner forces.

Russia was the first country to share nuclear technology with India, underscoring a long-standing strategic partnership when others hesitated.

Title:

Content: Prime Minister Narendra Modi ’ s recent two-day visit to Russia may have been watched more in the West than in India itself.
Modi received an official reception in Russia, where President Vladimir Putin, who faces Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine, described the Indian prime minister as his “best friend. ”
The visit, Modi ’ s first overseas trip after taking office for a new term, has been described as of international significance.
India is in a unique position as it enjoys long-term relations with Russia while at the same time getting closer to the United States and is now in a position to win the trust of both sides.
Thus, while India is unlikely to play the role of mediator, the South Asian country, during the crisis period, could play some role in helping to find a solution to the war in Ukraine.
But throughout the visit, Modi was clearly balancing India ’ s position between the two sides.
He has described Russia as a friend at all times, referring to how Moscow has advanced in the past to help New Delhi.
Russia shared nuclear technology with India at a time when no other country was willing to do so.
It is also supplying arms to India and helping to strengthen its defence deterrence amid border problems with neighbouring countries.
While India is now diversifying its defense purchases from Israel, the United States, and France, among others, 80 percent of India ’ s military equipment to date comes from Russia.
Russia has also become important since the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, to provide fuel at reduced prices, which is crucial for India, whose energy needs are growing exponentially.
Cheap fuel helped New Delhi adjust inflation in India.
At the same time, India ’ s relations with the United States have grown at a rapid pace in recent times.
Against this backdrop, the visit was also a lesson in skilful diplomatic manoeuvres, as Modi managed to strike a good balance between the two sides.
During the visit, Modi noted that his 17 meetings with Putin over the past decade have strengthened mutual trust and respect between the two sides.
The Indian prime minister not only called Russia a friend at all times, but also a “partner for better or worse. ”
The two leaders also exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis.
The Indian prime minister reiterated his country's position that there could be no solutions to the crisis amid "guns, bullets and bombs".
"Whether it is a war, a conflict or a terrorist attack, anyone who believes in humanity suffers when there is a loss of life," he said, stressing that "when innocent children are killed, the heart bleeds and this pain is very frightening."
There is no doubt that Modi ’ s visit to Russia was significant.
Apart from the international attention from a political point of view on its outcome, the visit is seen as adding to the continued momentum in relations between the two countries.
Economic relations in particular have received a boost since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, mainly due to India ’ s imports of oil, fertilizers and gas at reduced prices.
Trade between India and Russia, which has been stagnant for years, rose from $15 billion in 2021-2022 to $65 billion in 2023-2024 after the outbreak of the Ukrainian war in 2022.
So, during Modi ’ s visit, the two sides also discussed ways to strengthen economic ties.
The two countries agreed to boost trade to $100 billion by 2030, reduce non-tariff barriers, reduce trade imbalances in Russia ’ s favor, improve connectivity and increase trade in agricultural goods.
They also discussed some outstanding problems that remain unresolved between the two countries, such as the issue of the growing trade imbalance.
The outbreak of the Ukrainian war, which was the reason for the strengthening of energy ties between the two countries, put pressure on the military relationship, delaying shipments of spare parts and new weapons.
For example, Russia has so far delivered only three of the five S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile systems, while the other two are behind schedule.
The delivery of spare parts and other military equipment remained an essential part of the discussions.
The two sides are now exploring the possibility of establishing partnerships in joint ventures in India for some important parts of arms.
Modi ’ s visit to Russia, while surprising to the West, was of great importance to India in pushing forward its relations with Russia.
* Chairman of the Centre for Islamic Studies, New Delhi

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

What do Putin and Modi officially characterize Russia/ India relationship as?

Prime Minister Modi has described Russia as a constant and reliable partner, deepening the perception of enduring friendship.

During Modi’s visit to Moscow, he and Putin discussed key bilateral issues, including the unresolved trade imbalance and the Ukraine conflict.

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

The visit was viewed as significant, reaffirming the importance both countries place on their relationship.

Title:

Content: Are we witnessing the formation of a quartet axis that threatens American hegemony?
Are we witnessing the formation of a quartet axis that threatens American hegemony?
In the early morning of January, Russian forces launched a massive rocket attack on the Ukrainian cities of Kiev and Kharkiv, killing five civilians, wounding 100 others and damaging infrastructure.
This event was notable not only because of the damage it caused, but also because it showed that Russia is not alone in its fight.
In fact, the Russian attack that day was carried out with weapons equipped with technology from China, missiles from North Korea and drones from Iran, and over the past two years these three countries have become vital support elements of Russia ’ s war machine in Ukraine.
Moreover, Russia now produces at least 330 drones every month and is cooperating with Iran on plans to build a new factory for these drones inside Russia that would boost this production.
Beijing has ramped up its purchases of Russian oil and gas, injecting billions of dollars into Moscow ’ s coffers, and just as importantly providing vast amounts of war technology, including semiconductors, electronic devices, radar equipment, communications jamming, and jet fighter parts.
Customs records show that despite trade sanctions imposed by the West, Russia ’ s imports of electronic chips and components have been rising steadily to near pre-war levels, with more than half coming from China.
This support from China, Iran, and North Korea has strengthened Russia ’ s position on the battlefield, thwarted Western efforts to isolate Moscow, and hurt Ukraine.
In fact, the coordination between the four countries began to expand before 2022, but the war accelerated the consolidation of economic, military, political and technological relations, and they are increasingly harmonizing their interests and rhetoric and coordinating military and diplomatic maneuvers. The common goal is to challenge the principles, regulations and institutions that form the basis of the existing international order, and when these four countries cooperate, their combined actions produce far greater impact than their individual efforts alone.
By working together, they enhance each other ’ s military capabilities, undermine the effectiveness of U.S. foreign policy instruments, including sanctions, and impede the ability of Washington and its partners to enforce global rules, and their collective goal is to create an alternative to the current order they see as dominated by the United States.
There is no doubt that these four countries have their differences and a legacy of historical mistrust and current divisions can limit the extent to which their relations prosper, yet their shared goal of weakening the United States and its leadership role provides a strong link. The US State Department is now managing the devastating consequences of their growing coordination and preventing the Axis from destabilizing the world.
The Anti-West Team
In fact, China and Russia have been strengthening their partnership since the end of the Cold War and this trend accelerated significantly after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, between 2013 and 2021 China ’ s share of Russian foreign trade doubled from 10 to 20 percent, and between 2018 and 2022 Russia supplied China with a total of 83 percent of arms imports. Air, submarine and anti-ship weapons, making China more powerful in any potential maritime conflict.
In early 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping endorsed a joint statement pledging an “unlimited ” partnership between their countries and urging“ international relations of a new kind, ” in other words a multi-polar international order not dominated by the United States.
In return, Iran has strengthened ties with other Axis members as well, and in retrospect, Iran and Russia have worked together to keep Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power after the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, and in line with Russia ’ s efforts to protect Tehran from U.S. sanctions, China has been buying large amounts of Iranian oil since 2020.
For its part, North Korea has regarded China as its main ally and trading partner for decades, while maintaining friendly relations with Russia although they were not deep or substantial, and Iran has purchased North Korean missiles since the 1980s.
In addition, there has been a rapprochement between Pyongyang and Tehran due to a shared aversion to Washington: according to a statement made by Kim Yong Nam, a senior North Korean official, during a 10-day visit to Iran in 2017, the two countries “have a common enemy. ”
Moscow has been among the largest arms suppliers to Tehran for the past two decades, and is now the largest source of foreign investment. Russian exports to Iran rose 27 percent during the first 10 months of 2022. discussions in the United Nations Security Council.
Last year, Russia replaced Saudi Arabia as China ’ s top crude oil exporter, and trade between the two countries exceeded a record $240 billion. In addition, Moscow has released millions of dollars of North Korean assets held in Russian banks in compliance with Security Council sanctions. China, Iran and Russia have held joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman for three consecutive years, most recently in March 2024. China and North Korea.
The West has been quick to downplay the importance of coordination between China, Iran, North Korea and Russia.
The growing cooperation between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia is driven by a shared opposition to the Western-dominated world order, a hostility based on the belief that the current order does not give them the status or freedom of action they deserve, and each country emphasizes its own sphere of influence, with China claiming its “core interests, ” including Taiwan and the South China Sea, and Iran ’ s“ axis of resistance, ” a group of proxies that gives Tehran influence in Iraq and Lebanon. Syria, Yemen and elsewhere, while North Korea claims the entire Korean peninsula, and Russia seeks to assert control over neighboring regions, which in the Kremlin ’ s view include the countries that at least formed Russia ’ s historic empire.
The four countries see the United States as the main obstacle to the establishment of these spheres of influence, so they want to reduce Washington ’ s presence in their regions, and all of them reject the principle of universal values and view the West ’ s promotion of its version of democracy as an attempt to undermine its legitimacy and foment internal unrest. The West will accept its rise or return to power on the world stage, and it opposes external interference in its internal affairs, the expansion of American alliances, the deployment of American nuclear weapons outside the United States, and the use of coercive sanctions.
While envisioning a positive future may seem elusive, history has shown that a coherent agenda is not always necessary for an alliance of disaffected powers to sow the seeds of unrest, and the 1940 Tripartite Pact that united Germany, Italy, and Japan (the original version of the Axis) pledged to “create and maintain a new order, one in which each country brought its rightful place.
Similarly, China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia do not need a clear-cut plan for an alternative international order to disrupt the existing order, as their shared opposition to the underlying principles of the current order and their determination to effect change provide a strong basis for cooperative action.
For example, China and Russia compete for influence in Central Asia, while Iran and Russia compete for oil markets in China, India and elsewhere in Asia. China may view the deepening ties between North Korea and Russia with concern, fearing that Kim Jong-un ’ s empowerment could escalate tensions in Northeast Asia and attract a larger U.S. military presence, which China opposes, yet its differences are insufficient to break the bonds forged as a result of its shared resistance to a Western-dominated world.
The spark is coming from the Kremlin.
The invasion of Ukraine was the point of no return in Putin ’ s long campaign against the West, and Putin became more committed to destroying not only Ukraine, but also the world order.
Ammunition, drones, electronic chips and other forms of assistance sent by Axis members have served as significant support for Russia, but the greater Moscow ’ s dependence on these countries it has been forced to make concessions in return.
Even before the Russian invasion, Moscow ’ s military assistance to Beijing reduced the military superiority of the United States over China. Russia provided increasingly sophisticated weapons to China, expanded the pace and scope of joint military exercises between the two countries, and Russian officers who fought in Syria and in Ukraine ’ s Donbas region passed valuable lessons to their Chinese counterparts. Its lack of operational experience is a marked weakness compared to more experienced U.S. forces.
Although China ’ s military modernization reduces the urgent need to deepen defense cooperation with Russia, the two countries are likely to move forward with technology exchanges and cooperation on joint weapons development and production projects: in February, for example, Russian officials confirmed that they are working with their Chinese counterparts on military applications of artificial intelligence. Pressing Russia, which has become more dependent on it, for additional advanced technologies, the exchange could further erode the advantages enjoyed by the United States.
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A Chinese warship approaches an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman, December 2019 (Reuters)
A similar dynamic is unfolding in Russia ’ s relations with Iran and North Korea: Moscow and Tehran have forged what the Biden administration called an “unprecedented defense partnership ” to upgrade Iran ’ s military capabilities, and Russia has provided Iran with advanced aircraft, air defense systems, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and electronic capabilities that would help Tehran resist any potential U.S. or Israeli military operation.
In exchange for providing North Korea with ammunition and other military assistance to Russia, Pyongyang is said to be seeking advanced space, missile and submarine technology from Moscow, and if Russia responds to these requests, North Korea will be able to improve the accuracy and capability of its nuclear-tipped ICBMs, and use Russian nuclear propulsion technology to expand the range and capability of its submarines. Russian aid may have contributed to North Korea ’ s launch of a military spy satellite in November last year after it failed to do so twice in the past year.
Kim, who now enjoys strong support from both China and Russia, abandoned North Korea ’ s decades-old policy of peacefully resolving the division with his South Korean neighbor. Instead, Pyongyang escalated its threats against Seoul, engaged in nuclear blackmail and missile tests, showed no interest in dialogue with the United States, and on Iran. With a clear and seemingly direct link between the deepening of their partnership and Hamas ’ s attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, increased support from Russia likely made Iran more willing to energize its regional proxies in the aftermath.
Coordinated diplomacy and pressure from Russia and the West for Iran to join the 2015 nuclear deal are now a distant memory, as Moscow and Beijing are now helping Tehran resist Western pressure to enrich uranium and reject Washington ’ s efforts to negotiate a new nuclear deal.
Undermining America
Most notably, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, China has supplied Russia with semiconductors and other basic technologies previously imported from the West, undermining the effectiveness of Western export controls. In December 2023, Iran and Russia finalized an agreement to conduct bilateral trade using their domestic currencies by moving their economic transactions beyond the scope of U.S. enforcement measures, so Axis members are undermining the effectiveness of Western sanctions, as well as anti-corruption and money laundering efforts.
China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia can build trade and transport networks safe from U.S. intervention by taking advantage of their shared borders and coastal areas; for example, Iran ships drones and other weapons to Russia via the Caspian Sea, where the United States has limited ability to stop transfers; and in the event of a conflict between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing could seek support from Moscow. The Russian defense industrial base, which is currently heavily focused on supplying Russian forces in Ukraine with weapons, could change its orientation and later focus to support the Chinese war effort.
For example, China ’ s refusal to condemn Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine facilitated similar positions in countries across Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, Beijing and Moscow blocked Western efforts to isolate Iran, and last year upgraded Iran from an observer state to a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a regional body. Iran ’ s regional interventions and nuclear endeavors have made other countries wary of dealing with its government, but Tehran ’ s participation in international forums enhances the regime ’ s legitimacy and offers it opportunities to expand trade with other member states.
China, Iran, and North Korea have either defended or avoided outright condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all echoing Kremlin accusations of warmongering and reacting to Hamas ’ attacks in October 2023, Iran has used state media and social media accounts to express its support for Hamas and Hamas. They have used the war in Gaza to portray Washington as the dominant and destabilizing power in the world, a narrative that resonates in parts of Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. Repeatability makes these states seem more credible and convincing.
Alternative system
The United States has invested in the liberal international order it helped create because it embodies American preferences and expands U.S. influence. As long as the system is useful enough for most members, a group of countries will defend it. A core group of powerful states around which the opposition can coalesce, the interest remains in the existing order.
For decades, threats to the U.S.-led order have come mostly from a handful of rogue states that do not have enough capacity to overthrow it, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting restructuring of relations between states would remove restrictions on collective action.
Historically, the existence of competing regimes has often led to conflict, especially in areas where these regimes overlap geographically. Indeed, wars arise from specific circumstances such as a territorial dispute or a need to protect national or allied interests, or a threat to the survival of the regime. One, similar to the balance-of-power system maintained by the European Coalition for much of the 19th century, for example, or the post-Cold War era dominated by the United States, has seen fewer conflicts compared to eras characterized by the existence of more than one system, such as the multipolar era between the two world wars and the bipolar system during the Cold War.
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Xi and Putin in Moscow, March 2023 (Reuters)
The world has been able to see a glimpse of the instability this new era of competing regimes will bring, an era in which potential aggressors feel emboldened by alternative rules endorsed by the axis and fear less isolation if they misbehave. Indeed, Hamas ’ s attack on Israel threatens to devour the wider Middle East. Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo also flared in 2023, and Venezuela threatened to seize territory in neighboring Guyana in December 2023. Although internal conditions have precipitated coups in Myanmar and across the Sahel since 2020, the increasing incidence of such revolts is linked to the new international arrangement. The overthrow of a government could destroy relations with the West, but the new regimes could find support in Beijing and Moscow.
Until now, most of the cooperation between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia has been bilateral, and any trilateral and quadripartite cooperative efforts between these countries may increase their ability to disrupt and disrupt, and countries such as Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, dissatisfied with the Western-dominated U.S.-led regime, could begin working more closely with the axis. If they coordinate, the United States and its allies will have more difficulty defending the established, recognized regime.
Confronting the reacti
The United States currently classifies China as a greater concern in its national security strategy than Iran, North Korea or even Russia, and this assessment is strategically sound when considering the individual threat these countries pose to the United States, but it does not fully take into account the cooperation between these countries. Moreover, Washington should work to weaken the attractiveness of this axis by increasing the attractiveness of the existing regime.
Washington should not ignore Russian aggression in Europe, for example, in order to focus on China ’ s rising power in Asia. Meeting the challenge posed by Beijing will require competing with other Axis members in other parts of the world.
An effective response requires the United States to allocate additional resources to national security, engage in more vigorous diplomacy, develop new and stronger partnerships, and play a more active role in the world than we have seen in recent times. But unlike President Richard Nixon ’ s openness to China, taking advantage of the Sino-Soviet split of the 1970s to lure Beijing away from Moscow, there is no similar ideological or geopolitical rivalry that Washington can exploit today, and the price of trying to do so is likely to include U.S. recognition of Russia ’ s or China ’ s sphere of influence in Europe and Asia, areas central to U.S. interests that Washington should not allow any hostile foreign power to control.
Separating Iran or North Korea from the rest of the axis will be more difficult, given the reactionary and even revolutionary goals of their governments, and ultimately the axis is a problem that the United States should manage rather than solve through major strategic initiatives.

What do Putin and Modi officially characterize Russia/ India relationship as?

Russia has begun delivering missile systems to India, supporting India’s defense amid ongoing tensions with both Pakistan and China.

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Content: ...
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India between Russia and America
I'm sorry.
The Merciful
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As a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, India abstained last week to condemn Russia, the largest and most capable country in Europe and Asia, for its military operation in Ukraine.
Western countries voted in the Security Council to demand that Russia stop its operation in Ukraine and withdraw its troops immediately, but Russia responded by vetoing a council resolution.
The reason for India's abstention was that it believed that non-alignment on this issue was in its national interests, while siding with one side meant harassing the other in a situation where both the United States and Russia were important to India and its national interests.
Abstaining in the Security Council has thus allowed India to avoid taking sides and being dragged into a crisis in distant places.
The challenge for India, which has no direct interests in Ukraine apart from evacuating its mostly student citizens there, is to make sure there is no reaction to the crisis on its relations with Russia, a key defense partner, or with the United States, which is crucial to addressing growing problems with China in the region.
The Ukraine crisis also comes at a time when India is in the process of acquiring five S-400 Triumph air defense missile systems from Russia and needs an exception from the United States, which has already sanctioned Turkey under the Countering America ’ s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for possessing the same S-400 missiles from Russia.
Moscow has already begun delivering missiles to New Delhi, which is seen as an important element of defence readiness for India, which has an unstable border with both Pakistan and China.
Russia and India have been allies since the Cold War, and defense cooperation has long been a cornerstone of their relationship.
India has sought to diversify its defense purchases outside of Russia, from countries such as Israel, the United States and others.
But more than 60 percent of India ’ s weapons continue to come from Russia, which means India needs to continue to get spare parts from Moscow.
There is no doubt that the relationship between India and Russia has come under strain, as New Delhi has become closer to Washington, amid mutual concerns over a range of issues, including the rise of China.
Their relationship has deepened over the past decade and they are now partners, along with Japan and Australia, in the Quadripartite Security Forum.
Russia, in turn, has become closer to China and Pakistan even as its relations with the United States and the West deteriorate.
But developments in Afghanistan, where the withdrawal of U.S. troops has brought the Taliban back to power, have led to New Delhi ’ s increased political engagement with Moscow as India seeks access to Central Asia.
There is no doubt that India is trying to maintain a delicate balance between Russia and the United States, taking sides in the Ukraine conflict will only lead to problems for India, especially since it has no direct interests in Ukraine.
There have also been reports that Russia has quietly worked behind the scenes to defuse tensions between India and China following the 2020 border clashes.
As a result, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the few world leaders to have spoken by phone with President Vladimir Putin in the midst of the Ukraine crisis.
Modi appealed to President Putin for an immediate halt to military actions and “called on all parties to return to diplomatic negotiations and dialogue. ”
At the same time, Modi also spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and expressed “readiness to contribute in any way to the peace efforts. ”
For India, the sooner this crisis is resolved, the better, especially because of its fears that the focus of the United States and its other allies may shift from the Indo-Pacific and the China Sea to a crisis in Europe over the dispute over Ukraine ’ s accession to NATO.
It is clear, however, that the United States and its NATO allies will avoid indulging in a direct armed conflict in Ukraine.
While the EU has imposed some sanctions, including closing airspace to Russian aircraft, New Delhi ’ s biggest concern is that it will not get an exemption from Washington over the Triumph missile system and that tougher economic sanctions could lead to a spike in oil prices.
Although the Russian and Ukrainian delegates have agreed to meet to discuss and resolve the conflict, an early resolution of the crisis seems elusive.
It is clear that Moscow is determined to create a demilitarized buffer zone between Russia and NATO member states.
But there is no doubt that a peaceful solution is the best way forward to end a crisis of this magnitude.
* Chairman of the Centre for Islamic Studies, New Delhi
Quote from "The Union"
Disclaimer: All published articles represent the opinion of their authors only.
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India is also developing its role in the Middle East, building diverse security and trade partnerships, highlighting its approach of engaging with multiple blocs rather than exclusive alliances.

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Content: India ’ s Eye on a Role in the Middle East
India ’ s Eye on a Role in the Middle East
When the United States, India, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates formed a new Joint Strategic Coordination Working Group last October, the convergence of four countries drew comparisons with the Quadripartite Security Dialogue between the United States, Japan, Australia, and India.
According to Indian researcher c.
It will certainly be some time before the new Middle East Quartet, still a working group among foreign ministers to date, reaches the strength and determination of its eastern counterpart, which has already held two leaders ’ summits this year.
But the quadripartite security dialogue also began as a modest exercise among senior officials in 2007.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken pointed to the four countries ’ overlapping interests in “energy, climate, trade and regional security ” as the goal of the new quartet.
He said the new format would enhance “complementary capabilities in many areas ” for new achievements in the Middle East.
The inclusion of India makes this group distinctive.
Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar told his interlocutors at the first meeting that his country ’ s relations with the three countries “are among the closest we have, if not the closest. ”
A WELCOME PARTNER
Raja Mohan says that India ’ s designation of the United States, Israel, and the UAE as among its closest strategic partners, and its willingness to publicly acknowledge and remain willing to work with these countries in the region, is a reflection of how far India ’ s foreign policy has shifted in the Middle East.
Interestingly, Washington, Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi are also looking to build a partnership with New Delhi, which has long been marginal in Middle East developments.
India, whose foreign policy footprint is now expanding, has become a welcome partner of the United States and its regional allies.
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Raja Mohan: New Middle East Quartet is the culmination of India ’ s policy
The new grouping in the Middle East represents the growing convergence of Indian and American interests in Asia.
New Delhi, which has in the past stood against Washington ’ s policies in East Asia and the Middle East, now seems ready to work with it to stabilize the two regions.
If the need for balance emerges in China as the glue that binds the Quartet together in East Asia, the situation remains more volatile and complex in the Middle East, where the United States is not looking for passive beneficiaries within its security umbrella while reshaping its alliances and realigning its global priorities.
It wants partners willing and able to share such trends, with India at the top of the list.
The rapid shift in India ’ s relations with Israel and the UAE (two key U.S. allies in the region) under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has provided a new basis for engagement between the four countries; after Washington facilitated the 2020 Abraham Accords, Washington has drawn India into what some already call the “Indian-Abrahamic Accords. ”
Raja Mohan says the U.S. addition of India to its network of Asian allies and partners is a new and unexpected approach to strengthening its position in the region.
But the long-term perspective points to something else about the logic of India ’ s geography; a glance at the map suggests India ’ s natural prominence in both East Asia and the Middle East.
The country, as a major powerhouse in the Asia Central Indian Ocean fulcrum, appears well positioned to shape geopolitical outcomes in both regions.
India regains its historical role in East Asia and the Middle East by returning to the two regions; colonial India played a major role in British domination of the Indian Ocean and its adjacent areas until the mid-20th century.
It provided the base from which Britain could control and defend its empire, promote the globalization of the region, and maintain a regional security system.
India provided military resources to Britain to stabilize large parts of Asia.
In a reminder of this role, Jaishankar opened his visit to Israel by laying a wreath on the graves of Indian soldiers who sacrificed their lives during the First World War.
Many observers in India and abroad have dismissed the deep commercial and military ties between India and the Middle East as distorted by the colonial context.
However, some historians emphasize the centrality of India to the British Empire.
We are witnessing the re-establishment of those ties between India and today ’ s dominant Western power, the United States, from the Suez Canal to the South China Sea.
But unlike the colonial era, India returned to the region as an independent actor with a policy of its own.
From New Delhi, it is negotiating India ’ s cooperation with the United States, unlike under British colonialism, where India does not help support another country ’ s empire but rather promotes its interests in the region.
Changing policies
India provided military resources to Britain to stabilize large parts of Asia
India ’ s foreign policy in the Middle East was driven by the need to distance itself from the legacy of British colonialism.
India has deliberately abandoned its security role in the region and its central role in economic globalization in the Indian Ocean.
Independent India has positioned itself against post-war alliances such as the Baghdad Pact (Cinto), when Washington aimed to contain the Soviet Union on its southern side and fill the vacuum created when India ’ s first post-independence prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, withdrew from security policy in the region.
Pakistan, on the other hand, was a founding member of Cinto alongside Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Britain, but could not replace an undivided India, and the alliance did not last long.
India had a brief window of time to reconsider its reluctance to be a regional security provider in 1968, when Britain announced it would withdraw from most of its colonial areas east of Suez.
However, New Delhi has struggled to reconcile its ideology of non-alignment with its security interests in the Indian Ocean.
Some Gulf states, all of which relied on Britain for their security, turned to India for defence cooperation after independence.
India signed a secondary protocol on military exchanges with Oman in 1972 but was not ready to intervene.
Instead, Nehru and his successors were wedded to major ideological issues of the age, including Third World radicalism, anti-colonialism, anti-Zionism, embracing the Palestinian cause, and Arab nationalism.
The contribution to the regional security system does not fit any of these models.
While India ’ s new leaders have emphasized self-sufficiency and the country ’ s economy has turned inward, New Delhi has severed its old economic ties with the Middle East.
Although rising oil imports and the export of Indian labor to the Gulf fostered the beginnings of deeper integration between India and the Gulf, New Delhi ’ s approach remained commercial rather than strategic.
Some of that began to change after the Cold War, when India established diplomatic relations with Israel despite the persistence of the old anti-Zionist and anti-Western orientation.
As some Israeli diplomats have said, New Delhi has treated Israel as a mistress with whom it communicates behind the scenes but is reluctant to appear in public.
India, whose foreign policy footprint is expanding, is now a welcome partner for the United States and its regional allies.
One of Modi ’ s first acts was to formally embrace Israel as an important partner and boast about the relationship between the two countries.
In the past, Indian diplomacy has consistently pointed to Arab concerns that have limited ties with Israel.
But Modi has discovered that he can pursue relations with both without problems.
Modi ’ s sudden enthusiasm to engage with the UAE and Saudi Arabia was also a notable shift; New Delhi has long viewed the Gulf states as too close to Pakistan and the United States.
Under Modi, India has discovered that it can do much to build trade, political and security partnerships.
The new Middle East Quartet is in many ways the culmination of greater pragmatism in India ’ s foreign policy.
It also highlights New Delhi ’ s successful removal of previous ideological concerns that limited its engagement with the region.
This would not have happened if the United States had not promoted agreements to normalize relations between Israel, the UAE and other Arab countries.
Raja Mohan believes that the primary focus of the Middle East Quartet will be on economic issues rather than strategic ones.
There is a lot of convergence between the Indian market, Emirati capital, Israeli technology, and US geo-economic influence in the region.
India recently revived free trade negotiations with the UAE and Israel to that end.
The United States has become India ’ s most important economic partner.
Jaishankar and his counterparts promised to quickly develop a concrete and practical agenda for the new group.
The level of political comfort between the four governments means the Middle East Quartet is likely to progress faster than the quadripartite security dialogue after it was launched in 2007, when it remained nearly dead before being revived more than a decade later.
While the quadripartite security dialogue began with a security focus and has since moved to a broader agenda, the Middle East Group has prioritized non-military topics.
This, however, does not diminish the expansion of India ’ s bilateral defense cooperation with the United States, Israel, and the UAE.
The Indian analyst says this could lead to greater strategic coordination between the four partners in the region in the long term.
At the same time, the Middle East Group does not prevent any of its members from cooperating with others in the region.
New loyalties are certain to emerge as the Middle East ’ s traditional adversaries return to forging ties with each other amid the region ’ s dramatic geopolitical changes.
Arab Newspaper

What vision of global dynamics do India and Russia share?

polycentric system of international relations

Despite Western pressure over the Ukraine invasion, India has maintained its relationship with Moscow out of strategic necessity, in part due to its concerns about China.

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Content: Chairman of the Board of Directors and Editors
I'm sorry.
Mohamad Elbaz
Editor-in-Chief
Wael Lotfy
Chairman of the Board of Directors and Editors
I'm sorry.
Mohamad Elbaz
Editor-in-Chief
Wael Lotfy
Financial Times reveals the secret of the cohesion of Russian-Indian relations
The Financial Times on Tuesday highlighted the secret of India-Russia relations and India ’ s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
India is sticking to Russia despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as New Delhi has refrained from angering Moscow over deep trade and defence ties and worries about China.
Indo-Russian relations
India relies on Moscow for goods such as energy and fertilizer, while Russia needs India to help it circumvent Western sanctions.
The newspaper pointed out that this is the second time for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who put Russia on the line of isolation, after the crisis of the new coronavirus last December, and his destination at the time to India was focused on preparing for future conflicts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that Moscow is working with New Delhi in the “military and technical sphere as with any other country, ” describing India as a“ time-tested friend ” as the two leaders signed a new 10-year defence pact.
Moscow remained India's most important military supplier, with Russian tanks, aircraft and other heavy weapons deployed on the Indian Himalayan border.
The Friendship Challenge
Friendship was also challenged just eight weeks later when Russian troops stormed Ukraine, pushing India to save more than 15,000 citizens, most of them students studying in the country.
Western countries condemned the Russian aggression, with New Delhi loyal to its old partner, and India, as a temporary member of the UN Security Council, abstained from voting on a resolution condemning the Russian invasion last week along with China and the UAE.
Analysts say India believes there is little benefit in not alienating Russia, which relies on it for commodities such as energy and fertilizers, with neighboring China as a much bigger strategic threat.
Russian support is seen as vital to managing the unresolved confrontation between India and China on its northern Himalayan border after deadly fighting in 2020.
Konstantino Xavier, a fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress in New Delhi, said: “Here in Delhi, Russia has long been seen as a dangerous tactical distraction for the West, from India ’ s perspective, the only actor that will emerge stronger from the war in Ukraine is China. ”
Although Modi appealed to Putin to “immediately stop the violence ” in a phone call on the first day of the war, Indian officials avoided blaming the Russian president.
Instead, New Delhi has kept in touch with both Moscow and Kiev because it has prioritized evacuations of its citizens on Ukraine ’ s western border.
India ’ s partnership with Russia dates back to the early days of independence after 1947, when Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru inspired parts of his socialist economy from the Soviet Union.
Although India was "unbiased" during the Cold War, it came close to the Soviets as the United States drifted toward its enemy Pakistan.
Crucially, the Soviet Union is credited with helping India win the 1971 war with Pakistan over Bangladesh.
India ’ s relations with the United States and Europe have strengthened since the end of the Cold War.
New Delhi, a member of the Quadripartite Security Partnership with the United States, Japan and Australia, is seen as an indispensable Western ally and a counterweight to China in Asia.
However, India is surrounded by its enemies on its northern border, and India ’ s geographical location means it does not want to rely on distant Western support.
Uday Kotak, managing director of Kotak Mahendra Bank and one of India ’ s wealthiest men, tweeted: “China on the one hand and Pakistan on the other, both are nuclear enabled, adding that given“ our dependence on Russian military equipment, and the United States is far away, we have challenges. ”
Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said: “India is watching Russian-Chinese relations closely, and what they have seen for years is that the relationship is getting closer and closer, and they didn ’ t want to push Putin further toward China. ”

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

Why is maintaining a relationship with Russia important for India?

India relies on Russia for key imports like energy and fertilizer, while Russia values India’s market and trade as a means to mitigate Western sanctions.

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

How has Russia/ India trade evolved since the start of the war in Ukraine?

India's purchases of Russian oil increased

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

Putin’s recent visits to India have emphasized preparation for future geostrategic challenges, reflecting mutual concerns about evolving power structures.

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

China-Russia relations are not equal, and the deepening border crisis between India and China has strained Beijing-Delhi relations further, with India wary of any China-Russia-Pakistan alignment.

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Content: The 20th in India.
One Pole End Alarm
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ISTANBUL – Imre Bacharan: A huge impact on the current global order could be borne by the G20 summit to be held in New Delhi on Saturday and Sunday.
The talk to experts who spoke to Anadolu about their readings of the role of the current G20 summit on international changes in terms of control, influence and polarity.
Comprising 19 countries and the European Union, the group represents the world ’ s largest economies and contributes more than 85 percent of its total output and 75 percent of its trade.
The meeting of leaders of the world ’ s richest and most powerful nations in New Delhi is expected to be a unique event due to several factors, including the absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, the two superpowers allied to the West.
A second feature of the event is the fact that the summit is hosted by India, a rising force of the Non-Aligned Movement in Asia.
Monopolar Decline
Husamuddin Inak, a professor of international relations at Domlupinar University in Turkey, said the summit “comes at a time when the US-led unipolar world order that emerged after World War II is no longer dominant. ”
“At present, there are several countries that stand against the neoliberal world order, such as Brazil, India, Mexico and others. ”
"The United States is losing its influence on all fronts, which in turn is changing the nature of the G20," he said.
As an example, Inac cited “the efforts of several countries to get rid of the US dollar, ” saying that“ the superiority of the US currency is in a deplorable state. ”
Pravin Donthe, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, also said the Russian-Ukrainian war would “cast a shadow over the summit. ”
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict, he said, “is leading to a pluralistic crisis in the world order today, because it is a direct result of the conflict between the West led by the United States and the Russian-Chinese bloc. ”
He said India ’ s goal was to “try to inject some oxygen into multilateralism. ”
“India is a rising middle power, one of the fastest-growing economies, and represents what is called a geopolitical swing state trying to chart its own course, trying to influence the regional and global systems at the same time. ”
A Multipolar World
In Enak ’ s view, neoliberalism and the “political economy of the West and its institutions ” are losing their credibility, while the dollar is losing its status as the world ’ s reserve currency.
He added that one of the biggest threats in this area is the BRICS group, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, which recently invited six other countries to join its ranks starting in early 2024: Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina.
“The BRICS group is also leading a campaign to replace the US dollar with its own common currency by 2030. ”
This week, Russia ’ s ambassador to South Africa, Ilya Rogachev, presented a symbolic BRICS banknote to Mohash Saeed Al Hamli, head of the UAE diplomatic mission.
“How the war in Ukraine ends will be a key factor in determining what the future world order will look like.
“If Putin manages to hold on to power against all odds, the world order will collapse and a new order will emerge from under its ashes, in which China will have a lot of power. ”
According to Donthe, this scenario “is exactly what India wants to prevent.
India does not want a unipolar Asia where China dominates.
New Delhi will use the summit to flex its political muscle. ”
“India wants a multipolar Asia, which it says will lead to a multipolar world. ”
“Bilateral relations between India and China are also under severe pressure at the moment due to the border crisis, which may explain President Xi Jinping ’ s decision to stay away from the summit, ” he said.
Moreover, according to Donthy, “New Delhi seemed to have sought to get closer to Washington, as evidenced by the visit of its Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the United States last June. ”
"The arrival of US President Joe Biden in New Delhi signals the great rapprochement between India and the United States," he said.
“Beijing is trying to send a signal that they are not satisfied with the way things are going, ” he said, but he added that India“ remains in a difficult position as it tries to balance its relations with Russia and the West. ”
“In every UN resolution, India abstained from voting to condemn Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine, because India has a deep long-term strategic relationship with Russia, ” he said,“ but at the same time it is working to strengthen its relations with the United States and the West. ”
Turkey will find its right place.
Speaking about Turkey ’ s role in the changing world order, Inak said it “plays a big role in the economic model proposed by the non-aligned countries, led by the members of the BRICS alliance. ”
He added that Turkey “also plays a big role in China ’ s Belt and Road Initiative. ”
“The G20 summit will also show how the United States and the European Union are dealing with their relations with Turkey, ” Inak said.
“New models of global integration will emerge, and Turkey will find its rightful place in the new world order. ”
(Anatolia)
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India seeks to avoid outcomes that would solidify such hostile blocs, maintaining nuanced but firm ties with Russia.

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

India did not join the Western sanctions against Russia

The changing world order, exacerbated by the Ukraine war, will significantly influence India’s foreign policy outlook, especially as India stresses a multipolar world and rejects polarized alliances.

How did India react to the war between Russia and Ukraine?

India did not directly oppose Russia's actions

What vision of global dynamics do India and Russia share?

polycentric system of international relations

Russia’s foreign policy now stresses sovereignty, multipolarity, and intensified engagement with actors across the global South and East, including India.

Title:

Content: Maria Khodinskaya Golnicheva: A new concept of Russia ’ s foreign policy represents a strategic approach to multipolarity
World News
Maria Khodinskaia-Golnysheva.
Deputy Director of the Department of Foreign Policy Planning of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Copy Link https: / / en.rt.com / vi5e
Deputy Director of the Department of Foreign Policy Planning of Russia Maria Khodinskaya Golnecheva stressed that the updated concept of foreign policy formulates our interests and defines the form of a multipolar world we desire.
In a lecture at the Russia-260 Diplomatic Forum, Golneysheva noted that the concept document on foreign policy has already been rewritten in depth, as it could become an example of updated Russian strategic approaches.
Our Vision for a Multipolar World
“It is important that this concept for the first time shapes Russia ’ s national interests and determines the shape of the world we want to see and the world we seek.
For us, this is a multipolar world.
For the first time, the civilizational approach was discussed.
This view assumes that civilized nations and societies will play a key role in building a multipolar world order and shaping a more democratic and just global architecture.
She pointed out that these civilizational societies are Russia, China, the Arab world, the Islamic Ummah, India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean and the collective West in its continental Anglo-Saxon and European dimensions.
We're a major Eurasian player.
"These players are the ones who will shape the multipolar world.
A civilized society can express its collective aspirations, speak of the problems of the peoples that inhabit it, and speak with one voice.
Russia is, without a doubt, a civilized country.
It is on its own path.
We are a major Eurasian player, a self-sufficient entity with its own national interests and its own understanding of the future.
We are a rallying point in the vast Eurasian space and a responsible geopolitical player. ”
We headed to the south and east of the world.
The historical cycle of the past 30 years has been completed, and now Russia, as a self-sufficient entity, will determine its position in the world in a completely different way.
We will turn our face to the south and east of the world.
Keeping in mind, we are only in conflict with Western civilization, while we have constructive and friendly relations with the rest.
A network of sustainable partnerships
The Middle East and the Arab Gulf states remain at the center of our attention.
“This region is receiving priority attention from us, as part of the implementation of the concept of foreign policy.
A sustainable network and partnerships are being built.
Here I would like to draw your attention to the Russian concept of collective security for the Gulf region, which is aimed at the independent development of a model for ensuring their security by the countries of the region.
We are witnessing efforts by the People ’ s Republic of China to successfully mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran. ”
“All of this has a ripple effect on the region as a whole, and at the same time it becomes an example of resolving differences within a multi-polar system.
I will cite as an example Russia ’ s mediation in developing a road map for the normalization of relations between Turkey and Syria.
You see that non-Western players are starting to play a major role in these processes.
Here we can mention Syria ’ s return to the Arab League. ”
"Arab" and "Islamic Arab" and looking towards crystallization as an independent society
This is the most important indication that the Arab world and the Arab-Islamic world, on a larger scale, are looking to take shape as an independent civilizational society that will eventually speak — and have already begun to speak — with one voice.
This is important for the stability of the world order.
Russia will continue to support this process. ”
She also stressed that the Middle East is always at the center of Russian attention.
Because they remember the Soviet Union there, and they remember with gratitude the contribution made by the Soviet Union to strengthen the statehood, ensure security, and create sustainable infrastructure in the region.
It is the “foundation ” on which so much can be built.
We have strengthened our relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and other countries.
“Look how our relations with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other countries in the region have strengthened since 2015. Why?
Because Russia has shown the whole world that it will not stand by and watch the West silently, enjoying a sense of tolerance and impunity that destroys another Arab state.
A stable secular state – simply because no one admired its leader.
“Russia has done a lot for Syria. ”
“First, I contributed to the preservation of the state.
Second, we broke the back of terrorism in Syria and made a significant contribution to the stability of the entire region.
The countries of the Persian Gulf region and the Middle East have witnessed a concrete example that Russia can indeed defend national interests and contribute to the stability of the region, using all legitimate methods.
"The military operation in Syria is completely legitimate because it is carried out at the request of the Syrian government."
Arab States' Position on the Special Military Operation
Regarding the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, she stressed that the attitude of many Arab countries towards this military operation is completely different from what the West is trying to show.
It is not seen as a war between Russia and Ukraine, but as a struggle for justice.
This is based on the fact that the Arab world, like most countries of the East and South, has a very bitter experience with colonialism.
In this regard, I concluded that many associate the beginning of the military operation with the prospects of building a democratic, multipolar world order.
Maria Khodinskaia-Golnysheva.
Deputy Director of the Department of Foreign Policy Planning of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The emergence of Russia as a sovereign center of power
A professor at Moscow State University of International Relations pointed to the issue of Russia's eastward shift and that this has a serious impact on world politics.
"This is a huge and interconnected picture.
Look, for example, at the groups in which Russia participates "BRICS" and "Shanghai Cooperation Organization"...
noting that many of its States were seeking to become partners either through dialogue or as members of such groups.
“Undoubtedly, the emergence of Russia as a sovereign center of power, and the possibility and ability of our country to defend its national interests all affect the entire geopolitics and play a key role in the creation of this new global architecture. ”
Source: RT
Agree.
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What vision of global dynamics do India and Russia share?

polycentric system of international relations

Russia continues to hold joint military exercises with India, and plans similar exercises with China, laying the foundation for deeper military interaction with both countries.

Title:

Content: Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Russian East Europe and Central Asia Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said on the 5th that Russia is holding joint military exercises with India and will also hold joint large-scale military exercises with China next week.
According to Russian media information, the scale and level of these two exercises have a certain strategic significance, reflecting new changes in Russian diplomacy.
Relations between Russia and the West have continued to deteriorate since Biden took office.
The United States has not only imposed a military blockade on Russia, but has also frequently interfered in Russia ’ s internal affairs on the grounds of human rights, freedom, and democracy.
Therefore, Russia attaches more importance to Eastern diplomacy, especially its relations with Asian countries such as China and India.
Zhang Hong wrote in the Global Times that after the 2014 Ukraine crisis, NATO, led by the United States, regarded Russia as a major security threat, frequently held large-scale military exercises around Russia, provided military assistance to Ukraine, and the geo-security environment in Eastern Europe became increasingly complex.
In response to the military challenges of the West, Moscow has further strengthened its military interaction with partner countries such as China and India, demonstrating military strength through regular joint exercises and developing the ability to deal with regional security crises.
Zhang said that first, the joint military exercises are aimed at boosting Russia ’ s great power influence.
At the instigation of the Biden administration, Russia ’ s economic cooperation with the EU has been fractured, and there are more and more voices within the EU questioning Russia.
So much so that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lamented that the dividing line between Russia and the EU is getting deeper and deeper, and like the trenches, the European continent is experiencing an unprecedented crisis of trust.
In response to Western security pressure and diplomatic isolation, Putin chose to strengthen Eastern diplomacy, and consolidating relations with China and India became an important part of Russian diplomacy.
Second, the joint exercises help show Russia ’ s military strength, Zhang said.
After the end of the Cold War, Russia inherited the Soviet Union ’ s vast nuclear arsenal and advanced military industry, which is the most solid material foundation for maintaining its status as a great power.
Since the Biden administration, NATO has continued to infiltrate eastward, reaching the Crimean Peninsula, and the two sides have even reached the point of “imminent war. ”
In the face of the ever-approaching NATO, Moscow has accelerated the pace of military modernization on the one hand, and accelerated its interaction with strategic partners such as China and India on the other.
Joint military exercises are not only one of the main components of strategic partner military cooperation, but also an important window to showcase Russia ’ s military strength.
Zhang Hong pointed out that third, the joint military exercises help to curb American hegemony.
After the end of the Cold War, the United States, with its economic, technological, and military strength, has long been a world policeman, constantly intervening in various affairs around the world.
The United States has not only tried to impose its own values on other countries, openly interfering in the internal affairs of sovereign countries through unilateral sanctions, but has also repeatedly subverted their regimes by military means.
China, Russia, and India are opposed not only to interference in their own internal affairs, but also to interference in the surrounding region.
The best way is to strengthen their own military strength, expand the influence of multilateralism through strategic cooperation of partner countries, and enhance the ability to resist US hegemonism and unilateralism.
Zhang Hong stressed that although there are territorial disputes between China and India, with the joint efforts of the two countries, effective control of differences has basically been achieved.
Senior Indian officials have revealed that, after military-level talks over the weekend, China and India agreed to withdraw their troops from another point of friction along the disputed Himalayan border.
China and India share similar positions on maintaining regional peace and promoting a multilateral international order.
By carrying out strategic cooperation with China and India in a balanced way, Russia has also promoted the strategic stability of relations between the three countries to a certain extent, making strategic interaction between China, Russia and India possible.
# Russia # Zhang Hong # China # Joint Military Exercise # Relationship

In what fields are India and Russia cooperating?

India spearheaded a significant initiative for the Global South by advocating for the African Union’s G20 membership, highlighting its growing diplomatic role amid US-China tensions.

Title:

Content: China ’ s diplomacy has been courting developing countries for more than a decade. Beijing ’ s economic success has been a source of inspiration for developing China, and it has sought to be the leader of the “Global South ” through trade, loans and infrastructure projects.
Now that China is facing competition from another Asian power, India is shaping itself as another leader in the developing world, especially at the recent G20 summit in India, where India ’ s new role was unexpectedly agreed upon.
India, with the help of other developing countries, persuaded the United States and Europe to soften their statements about Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine in order to focus the forum on the concerns of poor countries, such as global debt and climate finance.
India also led the most tangible outcome to date in an initiative to strengthen support for countries in the global South: making the African Union a member of the G20, with the same organizational status as the European Union.
Kishore Mahbubani, a former Singapore ambassador and author of Has China Won?, said that “the global order is undergoing a structural transformation ”,“ the power of the West is declining, and the influence and power of the global South – that is, the world outside of the West – is increasing. ” India. ”
Analysis believes that at a time when the US-China "new cold war" dominates almost all global issues, India's proposal is clearly attractive.
The United States has been criticized for focusing on military power rather than economic aid, and the Belt and Road Initiative, a symbol of China ’ s influence, has triggered a backlash because China has refused to renegotiate the crippling debt issue, putting many countries at risk of default.
By contrast, India, under Prime Minister Modi, has made less flamboyant and less directly linked to interests or the military. Instead, it has been enthusiastically supportive, listening to national grievances and pledging to diversify global policy-making institutions.
India still has a long way to go to become a truly great power, and even at its most optimistic, it will not be a developed country for decades to come.
But India ’ s rapid economic growth, coupled with the West and its allies ’ checks on China, also makes India ’ s position crucial.
China ’ s leader, Xi Jinping, decided not to attend the G20 summit, a situation that gave India a rare opportunity, Modi played a mediator and friendly role at the summit, he interacted closely with Biden, warmly welcomed the African Union into the G20, and also praised China ’ s support for the G20 Joint Declaration.
Earlier this year, India convened leaders from more than 100 developing and poorer countries for an online summit called Global Voices of the South, but China did not receive an invitation.
China sees India as a major competitor in Asia, but not in terms of global South leadership, said Eric Olander, chief editor of the China-South Project website. China is convinced that India cannot compete with China in key areas such as financing, infrastructure and trade.
At the recent BRICS summit, Modi touted India ’ s status as the voice of the global South, but the person who enjoys the most honorable treatment is still Xi Jinping.
“Money can make the ghost grind, ” says Ziyanda Stuman, a senior analyst in the Eurasia Group ’ s Africa team.“ China will continue to enjoy this leadership as long as India or Europe and the United States don ’ t match China ’ s investment volume. ”
In its first year as G20 chair, India enjoyed the opportunity to demonstrate its influence on the international stage and try to maintain close ties with the global South, with strong support from Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.
"Western countries, led by the United States, want to use India to divide the global South and weaken China's position in the developing world." Obviously, China does not intend to cede its position in the "global South", and will remain vigilant against India's move to the West to contain China's rise.
Source: The “Global South ” Leading Sheep Race, India Challenges China
# India # Global South # China # Modi # Developing Countries

India’s proposal to strengthen the Global South is seen as attractive as a US-China “new cold war” dominates international issues.

Title:

Content: China ’ s diplomacy has been courting developing countries for more than a decade. Beijing ’ s economic success has been a source of inspiration for developing China, and it has sought to be the leader of the “Global South ” through trade, loans and infrastructure projects.
Now that China is facing competition from another Asian power, India is shaping itself as another leader in the developing world, especially at the recent G20 summit in India, where India ’ s new role was unexpectedly agreed upon.
India, with the help of other developing countries, persuaded the United States and Europe to soften their statements about Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine in order to focus the forum on the concerns of poor countries, such as global debt and climate finance.
India also led the most tangible outcome to date in an initiative to strengthen support for countries in the global South: making the African Union a member of the G20, with the same organizational status as the European Union.
Kishore Mahbubani, a former Singapore ambassador and author of Has China Won?, said that “the global order is undergoing a structural transformation ”,“ the power of the West is declining, and the influence and power of the global South – that is, the world outside of the West – is increasing. ” India. ”
Analysis believes that at a time when the US-China "new cold war" dominates almost all global issues, India's proposal is clearly attractive.
The United States has been criticized for focusing on military power rather than economic aid, and the Belt and Road Initiative, a symbol of China ’ s influence, has triggered a backlash because China has refused to renegotiate the crippling debt issue, putting many countries at risk of default.
By contrast, India, under Prime Minister Modi, has made less flamboyant and less directly linked to interests or the military. Instead, it has been enthusiastically supportive, listening to national grievances and pledging to diversify global policy-making institutions.
India still has a long way to go to become a truly great power, and even at its most optimistic, it will not be a developed country for decades to come.
But India ’ s rapid economic growth, coupled with the West and its allies ’ checks on China, also makes India ’ s position crucial.
China ’ s leader, Xi Jinping, decided not to attend the G20 summit, a situation that gave India a rare opportunity, Modi played a mediator and friendly role at the summit, he interacted closely with Biden, warmly welcomed the African Union into the G20, and also praised China ’ s support for the G20 Joint Declaration.
Earlier this year, India convened leaders from more than 100 developing and poorer countries for an online summit called Global Voices of the South, but China did not receive an invitation.
China sees India as a major competitor in Asia, but not in terms of global South leadership, said Eric Olander, chief editor of the China-South Project website. China is convinced that India cannot compete with China in key areas such as financing, infrastructure and trade.
At the recent BRICS summit, Modi touted India ’ s status as the voice of the global South, but the person who enjoys the most honorable treatment is still Xi Jinping.
“Money can make the ghost grind, ” says Ziyanda Stuman, a senior analyst in the Eurasia Group ’ s Africa team.“ China will continue to enjoy this leadership as long as India or Europe and the United States don ’ t match China ’ s investment volume. ”
In its first year as G20 chair, India enjoyed the opportunity to demonstrate its influence on the international stage and try to maintain close ties with the global South, with strong support from Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.
"Western countries, led by the United States, want to use India to divide the global South and weaken China's position in the developing world." Obviously, China does not intend to cede its position in the "global South", and will remain vigilant against India's move to the West to contain China's rise.
Source: The “Global South ” Leading Sheep Race, India Challenges China
# India # Global South # China # Modi # Developing Countries

Despite India’s ambitions, analysts note it still faces considerable challenges before attaining major power status.

Title:

Content: China ’ s diplomacy has been courting developing countries for more than a decade. Beijing ’ s economic success has been a source of inspiration for developing China, and it has sought to be the leader of the “Global South ” through trade, loans and infrastructure projects.
Now that China is facing competition from another Asian power, India is shaping itself as another leader in the developing world, especially at the recent G20 summit in India, where India ’ s new role was unexpectedly agreed upon.
India, with the help of other developing countries, persuaded the United States and Europe to soften their statements about Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine in order to focus the forum on the concerns of poor countries, such as global debt and climate finance.
India also led the most tangible outcome to date in an initiative to strengthen support for countries in the global South: making the African Union a member of the G20, with the same organizational status as the European Union.
Kishore Mahbubani, a former Singapore ambassador and author of Has China Won?, said that “the global order is undergoing a structural transformation ”,“ the power of the West is declining, and the influence and power of the global South – that is, the world outside of the West – is increasing. ” India. ”
Analysis believes that at a time when the US-China "new cold war" dominates almost all global issues, India's proposal is clearly attractive.
The United States has been criticized for focusing on military power rather than economic aid, and the Belt and Road Initiative, a symbol of China ’ s influence, has triggered a backlash because China has refused to renegotiate the crippling debt issue, putting many countries at risk of default.
By contrast, India, under Prime Minister Modi, has made less flamboyant and less directly linked to interests or the military. Instead, it has been enthusiastically supportive, listening to national grievances and pledging to diversify global policy-making institutions.
India still has a long way to go to become a truly great power, and even at its most optimistic, it will not be a developed country for decades to come.
But India ’ s rapid economic growth, coupled with the West and its allies ’ checks on China, also makes India ’ s position crucial.
China ’ s leader, Xi Jinping, decided not to attend the G20 summit, a situation that gave India a rare opportunity, Modi played a mediator and friendly role at the summit, he interacted closely with Biden, warmly welcomed the African Union into the G20, and also praised China ’ s support for the G20 Joint Declaration.
Earlier this year, India convened leaders from more than 100 developing and poorer countries for an online summit called Global Voices of the South, but China did not receive an invitation.
China sees India as a major competitor in Asia, but not in terms of global South leadership, said Eric Olander, chief editor of the China-South Project website. China is convinced that India cannot compete with China in key areas such as financing, infrastructure and trade.
At the recent BRICS summit, Modi touted India ’ s status as the voice of the global South, but the person who enjoys the most honorable treatment is still Xi Jinping.
“Money can make the ghost grind, ” says Ziyanda Stuman, a senior analyst in the Eurasia Group ’ s Africa team.“ China will continue to enjoy this leadership as long as India or Europe and the United States don ’ t match China ’ s investment volume. ”
In its first year as G20 chair, India enjoyed the opportunity to demonstrate its influence on the international stage and try to maintain close ties with the global South, with strong support from Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.
"Western countries, led by the United States, want to use India to divide the global South and weaken China's position in the developing world." Obviously, China does not intend to cede its position in the "global South", and will remain vigilant against India's move to the West to contain China's rise.
Source: The “Global South ” Leading Sheep Race, India Challenges China
# India # Global South # China # Modi # Developing Countries

The leaders of India, Russia, and China held a virtual summit to discuss reshaping the US-led global order.

Title:

Content: The leaders of the three powers convened a virtual summit via video on Tuesday in an attempt to reshape the U.S.-led global order.
But apart from the unity implied by their common appearance, each seemed to focus on their own different goals.
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, that meant showing strength after the Wagner mercenary mutiny and claiming international support for his war in Ukraine.
For China's top leader, Xi Jinping, the summit is another opportunity to attack the United States by calling for an end to "hegemonism" and "power politics."
For Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the host of the meeting, it was a sign of India ’ s growing stature – and an insinuating attack on its main rival, Pakistan, by calling on other countries to unite to “fight terrorism. ”
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In the speeches of the leaders prepared in advance of the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, no significant statements were made about the changes in the alliance.
But this forum – established in 2001 by China and Russia, with Pakistan and the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – does allow us to see how a regional club set up to counter Western influence deals with conflicting priorities.
There is no mention of the growing friction between Beijing and New Delhi that has pushed historically non-aligned India closer to the United States.
If Putin wants other leaders to deliver loud statements of support to ease his weakened position at home and justify his war in Ukraine, he can only be content with conventional rhetoric and a wintry tone.
What ’ s more, under the watchful eye of the Biden administration and many other countries around the world, the forum essentially seems to be stating that the three leaders have taken control of their own domestic issues and are ready to embrace what Putin calls a new “multipolar ” world.
“They all have a motive to downplay things and make everything seem normal, ” said Chong Ka-ying, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.“ They show that things are under control, there are no cracks, and India wants to explore relations with the United States despite Russia ’ s problems. ”
On Tuesday, no leader needed to reshape his image more than Putin.
Last month, Wagner mercenaries tried to overthrow Russia ’ s military leadership, and Putin ’ s more than two decades of rule faced the biggest challenge.
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While Putin defused the crisis by agreeing with mercenary leader Prigozhin to travel to Belarus, the brief rebellion raised questions about his authority and future.
It was Putin ’ s first appearance at an international forum since the rebellion, and he thanked member states for their support after the mutiny, which he claimed did not have popular support in Russia.
"A profound responsibility for the fate of the motherland unites Russian politics and society as a whole, showing a united front against armed mutiny," Putin said, also seeking to use the summit as a sign of international support for his invasion of Ukraine.
Support from China is most important, and it is the only major power to provide diplomatic and economic cover for Russia.
China has done so because it has made a long-term bet on Putin as a necessary partner to challenge the United States.
The bet comes at a cost, however, as Beijing struggles to repair relations with Europe ’ s main economic partners.
China ’ s refusal to condemn the war in Ukraine has also drawn growing global attention to Beijing ’ s aggressive stance on Taiwan.
The virtual meeting provided Xi with an opportunity to advance China ’ s goal of wresting influence from the United States.
He hailed the SCO as a way to “improve global governance ” and promote“ Chinese-style modernization ” — a veiled expression of a world vision in which Beijing and its partners have a greater say in international rules and norms.
In this vision, India ’ s positioning remains to be seen.
India, China ’ s biggest emerging strategic rival, joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2017 and sees the forum as a way to balance its own relations with the West as well as with China and Russia.
India has maintained stable relations with Russia, mainly economic, after refusing to condemn the invasion of Ukraine.
But its relationship with China has deteriorated due to border disputes and its participation in the quadripartite security dialogue mechanism, including the United States, which focuses on security and which Beijing views as a tool to contain China.
Modi's high-profile visit to Washington last month heightened suspicions in China that India is pulling closer to the United States to contain China's rise.
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Despite these tensions, India has a sweet spot in the forum.
Its dependence on the Central Asian countries for energy and maintaining its influence in Afghanistan could have spillover effects on Pakistan.
Modi praised the forum as an "important platform" for peace and prosperity, but urged the group to condemn countries that "use terrorism as a tool of their policies."
The remarks were directed at Pakistan, which India accuses of funding militants in the disputed Kashmir region.
“India will not abandon or withdraw from the SCO because it will lose its foothold in Central Asia and cede the Eurasian region to India ’ s main rival, China, ” said Sriram Chorya, dean of the School of International Affairs at Jindal Global University near New Delhi.

This summit signaled an intention by the three states to assert their roles in a new “multipolar” world, as emphasized by Putin.

What vision of global dynamics do India and Russia share?

polycentric system of international relations

China remains Russia’s most crucial supporter, offering diplomatic and economic backing amid Moscow’s global isolation.

Given these shifts, experts suggest India’s best stance on the Ukraine conflict is to remain neutral.

Title:

Content: Why is the relationship between India and Europe heading to a new peak when the situation between India and Russia is ambiguous?
Author: External Submission
Published: Updated:
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India ’ s position in international politics suddenly became “hot. ”
During Prime Minister Boris Johnson ’ s visit to India in late April, the two sides issued a joint statement entitled “Achieving Common Security and Prosperity through National Resilience. ”
During the visit of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the Indian capital of New Delhi, the EU and India agreed to establish a Trade and Technology Commission to strengthen cooperation between the two sides. Following Johnson and Von der Leyen, the foreign ministers of Poland, Lithuania, Slovenia, Portugal, the Netherlands, Norway and Luxembourg also visited India in succession.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi left for Germany, Denmark and France on May 2, after which he held talks with German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz in Berlin, followed by Copenhagen and a two-day India-Northern Europe summit with the Prime Ministers of Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Sweden and Norway.
Modi later made a brief stop in France, where he met with French President Emmanuel Macron to “share views on a variety of regional and global issues and assess ongoing bilateral cooperation. ”
It can be seen that although India chose to abandon the United States and Europe to maintain a more neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, recently India-Europe relations not only rose against the trend, but also achieved many breakthroughs.
What are the reasons behind this phenomenon and what are the factors that affect it?
Raja Mohan, a well-known Indian geo-strategist, pointed out: First, India and the EU want to reduce their dependence on Russia; second, India and the EU need to better cope with the rapid rise of China; third, India and the EU are looking forward to playing an important regional role under the influence of the United States.
The author predicts that the combination of these three factors will lead to a new upsurge in India-European relations. Although this prediction is suspected of greatly exaggerating India ’ s strategic importance, it also provides a new perspective for our understanding of India ’ s attitude.
On April 21, 2022, British Prime Minister Johnson visited India to visit Gandhi ’ s hometown. (AP)
On April 24, 2022, Macron was re-elected President of France, which gave the whole of Europe and North America a sigh of relief.
India is also pleased with Macron ’ s successful re-election as he has laid a solid foundation for the India-France strategic partnership.
If Macron ’ s rival, Marine Le Pen, wins, Europe ’ s geopolitics will be dramatically complicated.
If the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a challenge to the existing European regional order, then Le Pen ’ s challenge to Macron demonstrates Russia ’ s broad influence on European domestic issues.
Le Pen, like many other right-wing leaders in Europe, has close ties to Vladimir Putin, many of whom are deeply hostile to the EU.
If Le Pen wins, it will not only change France ’ s international trajectory, but also shake the political core of the European Union.
Unlike the Soviet Union, which tried to influence European politics through left-wing parties, Russia now influences European politics through right-wing parties.
Le Pen won nearly 42% of the vote, reflecting the growing challenges facing mainstream politics in Europe.
Europe now has no choice but to redouble its efforts against Putin.
Russia ’ s threat to Europe ’ s internal affairs is one of the factors influencing India ’ s increased engagement with Europe. While India and the EU have been talking about a strategic partnership for two decades, progress has been slow due to three external factors.
The Russian factor
In conversations with European leaders who recently visited Delhi, the Russia-Ukraine conflict was a key topic.
India ’ s reluctance to condemn Putin ’ s incursion may indicate that India-Russia relations remain inextricably linked.
This suggests that the best response India can make in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is to remain “neutral. ”
For the past few weeks, India has insisted that its silence was not in support of a Russian invasion.
It is worth noting that India has repeatedly stressed the need to respect the territorial integrity of countries, which in fact negates Russia.
Needless to say, in the context of the escalating strategic competition between China and India, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has made India very uneasy.
For India, normal relations between Russia and the West are ideal.
However, while India has rapidly drawn closer political and economic ties with Europe and the United States, Russia is locked in a fierce confrontation with the West.
India may be mindful of its old feelings toward Russia, but it will never sever its warming relationship with the West.
In recent years, given Russia ’ s declining economic power and growing isolation on the international stage, India ’ s options have become clear.
At the same time, geographical proximity and industrial complementarity determine the close economic and trade relationship between Russia and Europe.
The EU ’ s trade with Russia is huge, with an annual trade volume of about $260 billion, while the EU ’ s trade with India is only $10 billion.
Unlike India, Europe ’ s social ties with Russia are deeply rooted.
European leaders, including Macron, have long advocated a historic rapprochement with Russia and the inclusion of Moscow in the regional security order.
However, Putin ’ s actions in Ukraine have forced Europe to take costly measures to disengage from Russia.
This is especially true of Germany, which has strong and close commercial ties with Russia.
With Putin locked in a protracted and unwinnable conflict, Russia is set to pay a heavy price for its actions.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict undoubtedly raises a major short-term problem, one that both India and the EU have to deal with.
Now, India and the EU are finding themselves united in their goal of reducing their dependence on Russia.
In the long run, Russia will gradually decline, and its influence on Indo-European relations will diminish.
For nearly a century, Indo-Russian relations have complicated Indo-European relations.
If the Russian October Revolution of 1917 inspired India ’ s national independence movement, then the Soviet partnership dominated India ’ s foreign relations during the Cold War.
But now, the era of Russia ’ s influence on India ’ s international relations is coming to an end.
In December 2021, Modi warmly received the visiting Putin. (AP)
Second, the Chinese factor
China ’ s growing power objectively pushes India and Europe to strengthen their partnership with each other.
Contrary to India ’ s belief that Russia is “forced to make good friends with China, ” Russia has in fact been actively deepening its relations with China for more than two decades, which makes India very anxious. In June 2021, US President Joe Biden met with Putin in Geneva and proposed to explore the establishment of fruitful diplomatic relations with Russia.
However, Putin made a careful strategic choice – he chose China. In February 2022, Putin visited Beijing, and the two countries proposed “no cap on Sino-Russian relations. ”
Whether Russia is forced or proactively engaged with China makes no difference to India.
India has no choice but to deal with the consequences of Russia ’ s choice.
How to deal with China ’ s rise over the past two decades has become an epochal issue for Indian policymakers.
And the close relationship between China and Russia makes this challenge even more difficult to deal with.
As India strives to maintain reasonable relations with Russia, the EU should be an important partner for India in meeting the challenges posed by China.
This is also reinforced by the EU ’ s renewed understanding of China.
Trade between China and Europe has been very frequent for more than two decades, and it is clear that Europe has not given enough thought to China ’ s long-term political ambitions.
The multiplicity of problems between China and Europe, the close geopolitical relationship between China and Russia, and the rapid deterioration of Sino-US relations mean that the EU is afraid to invest more political capital to establish a more targeted strategic relationship with India.
India will also respond to this.
Third, the American factor
More recently, Europe ’ s attempts to wean itself off America ’ s call for “strategic autonomy ” are highly consistent with India ’ s wishes.
However, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict underscores the importance of the United States in helping Europe confront Russia.
In Asia, China ’ s assertiveness has once again made the United States a key factor in shaping regional peace and security.
However, the United States does not want its allies in Europe and Asia to become weak.
The United States wants Europe to be strong enough to take more responsibility for its own security, and it wants India to play a greater role in Asia to ensure regional security.
Above all, the United States wants a stronger relationship between India and Europe.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has forced India to readjust its relations with major powers and Europe to refocus on geopolitics.
For the first time since independence, India and the European Union have an unprecedented convergence of interests, which means that the two sides can work together to restore order in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific region.
Raja Mohan is a senior research fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New Delhi and a contributing editor for international affairs at The Indian Express.
This article was originally published on The India Express website on April 26 under the headline “India, Europe and the Russian complication ”.
The Chinese version of this article was published earlier on the South Asia Research Bulletin platform.
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Title:

Content: Under pressure, will India abandon Russia?
Author: External Submission
Published: Updated:
Recently, Sameer Lalwani, a senior expert at the Asia Center of the American Institute of Peace, and Happymon Jacob, an associate professor of diplomacy and disarmament at Nehru University, wrote that in the short and medium term, the foundation of Russian-Indian relations is still very solid, and in the long term, Indian-Russian relations are on a long-term downward trend, from partnership to trading. "Change".
Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, major democracies have come together to defend Ukraine by condemning Russia ’ s military actions.
But India did not join in, opting instead to abstain in a key UN vote and refusing to condemn its longtime partner, Russia.
Many countries expressed disappointment with India's stance on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
However, some observers believe that India has shown signs of considering a rupture with Russia, and India may change its previous neutral course. In September 2022, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin that “today ’ s era is not an era of war ”, a phrase that seemed to warn Russia, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Modi ’ s stance“ significant. ”
American political scientist Happymon Jacob also wrote that the Indian government is weakening its “long-term partnership ” with Russia and is committed to closer cooperation with the United States.
Based on the interpretation of these events, India needs to strengthen its cooperation with the West and is alienating Russia.
However, the view that "India and Russia will part ways" is too "taken for granted" and does not reflect realistic possibilities.
It is true that in the context of Russia ’ s growing economic dependence on China and its provision of unreliable weapons to India, India should theoretically move away from Russia and promote diversification of partnerships, but this is not realistic or feasible.
The United States, the first Western country to win over India on a number of issues, turned a blind eye to the human rights dispute.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden at last year ’ s G20 summit. (Reuters)
In fact, India is not ready to give up the India-Russia partnership, and in November 2022, Indian Foreign Minister Sujishin visited Russia, stressing that the relationship between the two countries is “strong and stable. ”
For this reason, US policymakers still need to make policy plans around the reality of a lasting India-Russia relationship, but they should also make India realize that Russia is a burden; the United States cannot punish and sanction India because of the close India-Russia relationship.
Because for the United States, India can play a more prominent and more active role in the Indo-Pacific region.
The False Dawn
Analysts have concluded that India is trying to distance itself from Russia based on what Indian officials say, including Modi ’ s verbal confrontation with Putin in September 2022, a vote against Russia at the United Nations, and the cancellation of a multi-billion dollar Russian weapons procurement program (fighters and helicopters).
However, these developments do not mean that India has explicitly chosen to stay away from Russia.
The Washington Post called Modi ’ s September 2022 statement to Putin a “rebuke. ”
But in fact, Modi ’ s statement was not intended primarily to address the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but to express concern about rising food and energy prices.
Several assessment reports issued in India have warned against over-reading Modi ’ s remarks, which are no different from the official position of India in the past that the war has inflicted great trauma on developing countries.
It is undeniable that India has indeed sided with the West in some of the UN ’ s procedural votes, such as allowing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to speak at the UN General Assembly in September 2022.
But in more substantive votes, such as the October 2022 vote on four regions of Russia ’ s military campaign in Ukraine, India abstained.
In addition, in early 2022, India cancelled several agreements to purchase Russian weapons (such as the MiG-29 fighter).
But the decision has little to do with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and is more about promoting domestic arms production and supporting India ’ s “self-reliance ” program.
A few months before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict erupted, the Indian government had planned to cancel these deals, including the purchase of Boeing P-8I aircraft from the United States, in favor of domestically produced weapons.
But India will still buy major weapons such as S-400 air defense systems, stealth frigates and nuclear submarines from Russia, which means India will be tied to Russia for decades to come.
In fact, India cannot really break with Russia, because Russian-made weapons account for a large share of India ’ s arsenal, and Russia still plays a significant role in India ’ s geopolitical considerations, so most of India ’ s political elite still prefer friendly Indian-Russian relations.
India can ’ t really break with Russia because Russian-made weapons make up the bulk of India ’ s arsenal and most of India ’ s political elite still prefer friendly India-Russia relations.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
(Reuters)
(2) Patience and persistence
India has long regarded Russia as a valued partner in its “multidirectional alliance ” strategy.
Within the framework of this strategy, India wants to maintain a constructive strategic partnership with several major powers at the same time, but refuses to form an exclusive alliance with any major powers.
India ’ s leaders believe that the “multidirectional alliance ” strategy is still valid today because Western analysts have misjudged Russia in several important ways.
The authors ’ study found that despite strong Western sanctions against Russia, Indian national security officials still believe in Russia ’ s endurance and durability.
They expect Europe to struggle under pressure from inflation and energy shortages, while Russia ’ s economy will be boosted by rising commodity prices.
After all, Indian companies are investing in Russian energy projects, such as oil and gas extraction projects in Sakhalin, Russia ’ s Far East.
In addition, India has doubled its investment in future India-Russia cooperation in defense technology research and development (including the development of the Brahmos cruise missile).
The leaders also believe that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is likely to turn into a military stalemate that will culminate in a negotiated cease-fire and that Russia will eventually be allowed to reintegrate into the international community.
Indian policymakers also believe that Russia will remain an important geopolitical force that will help India.
India relies on Russia for missile technology, submarine nuclear reactors, and hypersonic weapons, and Russia can still provide diplomatic support to India in the United Nations Security Council, which can exert influence on India ’ s other continental neighbors.
In addition, with the Russian regime in turmoil, Indian officials want to be able to extract more benefits from their dealings with the Russian government, just as India did at the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the two countries established the Brahmos Aerospace Joint Venture.
As India continues to maintain friendly relations with its old partner Russia, the West is hesitant to punish India.
Some observers believe that India will downplay the India-Russia relationship as Russia becomes closer to China and even more dependent on China.
But unlike Western officials, Indian officials do not believe that tough sanctions will force Russia into China ’ s arms, because there is no shortage of friction between China and Russia over Central Asia and the Arctic.
In the eyes of Indian policymakers, India can become a "wedge" between Russia and China, helping Russia retain some autonomy in Sino-Russian relations, and avoiding Russia becoming a "small follower" of China.
On September 15, 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Samarkand State Guesthouse to exchange views on China-Russia relations and international and regional issues of common concern. (Xinhua)
Third, get on with it.
Much of the Indian military ’ s combat and strike equipment is dependent on Russia.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has limited and delayed India ’ s process of acquiring spare parts and equipment upgrades, thus creating a “supply shock ” to India ’ s main Russian-made weapons arsenal.
While India remains concerned about the performance of Russian-made weapons and Russia ’ s ability to provide spare parts, it has not taken any hard measures to curtail the use of Russian materials or to purchase substitutes to accelerate the diversification of military equipment imports.
All in all, India has no plans to achieve a rapid and comprehensive transformation of its Russian-made weapons systems by bringing in other foreign suppliers. After the border crises of 2019 and 2020, there has been some peace and stability in the border area, and Indian strategists believe that India should maintain a low level of operational readiness for the next few years, even if that means increased vulnerability.
In the short to medium term, India plans to keep up with its existing inventory, while at the same time sourcing from the secondary market for Russian components and relying more on domestic military equipment.
India will continue to work with Russia to meet outstanding delivery commitments and selectively sign contracts with the West to support the development of India ’ s indigenous defence industry.
In the long run, India wants to be largely self-sufficient in terms of defense needs and no longer rely on external suppliers.
While India aims to diversify its arsenal and become self-sufficient within the next 20 years, it still needs some key technical support from Russia.
Su-30 fighters will remain the backbone of the IAF for decades, but they cannot be maintained or upgraded without Russian technical support.
India ’ s most important defense export, the BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile, currently sold mainly to Southeast Asian countries to deter China, uses Russian propulsion technology.
As long as Russia is in control of key elements of India ’ s advanced weapons systems, especially fighter jets, cruise missiles and submarines, Russia has considerable influence over India.
Much of the Indian military ’ s combat and strike equipment is dependent on Russia.
Su-30 fighters will remain the backbone of the IAF for decades. (Getty)
The First Friend of India
In addition to the above material considerations, the common ideological orientation has also driven India and Russia to maintain friendly relations.
Both Indian and Russian officials support the “polycentric ” vision of a global order in which there is no single dominant hegemony and each major power maintains its own sphere of influence.
Both India and Russia believe that a “multicentre ” is more stable than an international order governed by one or two superpowers.
India ’ s political elite also maintains a “sense of closeness ” to Russia, which stems from India ’ s decades-long tradition of cooperation with the former Soviet Union.
Two months after the conflict broke out, Yoga Jyotsna, an Indian scholar, said that “Russia is India ’ s number one friend in the eyes of the military and people of insight. ”
According to Rajeswari Rajagopalan, another Indian scholar,
Strategic sympathy for Soviet Russia was widespread not only among Indian politicians, but also among the general Indian population.
This is because Russia ’ s historical support and assistance to India has been “romanticized. ”
Although Indian diplomatic agencies have not helped Russia in its defense, national security officials believe that multiple actors, including NATO, should be held responsible for the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and not all blame should be placed on the Russian side.
A September 2022 survey of more than 1,000 Indian adults found that Indians believe the West and Russia are equally responsible for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (Reuters)
The Indian public is also sympathetic to Russia. A July 2022 poll found that a majority of Indians refuse to describe Russia ’ s military actions in Ukraine as “wrong. ” A September 2022 survey of more than 1,000 Indian adults found that Indians believe that the West and Russia are equally responsible for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and most Indians do not believe that a Russian victory will make the world more dangerous.
Public attitudes in India are not only very different from those in Europe, Australia and Japan, but also in emerging countries such as Brazil and South Africa.
Read the second half of the article.
This article was first published in the South Asia Research Newsletter. It only represents the author 's opinion and does not represent Hong Kong' s position.